The ICM Wisdom Index continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015; the Labour YouGov vote share remains firmly where it has been throughout the summer.
In other news, it was a beautiful early autumn day here in Warwickshire. The blackberry crop this year is the best I can remember. Fill your bags, buckets and bowls.
Baxtering the Wisdom poll gives LAB short 8 of majority
No figures yet, but the Sunday Times editorial says
Our YouGov poll shows the Labour lead at just four points, even though most voters are not yet fully aware of the improved economic data.
As predicted by ME on HERE. No Syria boost for Labour. Indeed, now the Syrian downsides, such as they are, belong to Miliband.
Who were the lefties soothsaying a big Syrian boost for "Gas The Babies" Ed? Quite a few, as I recall.
Do you? I predicted no effect. Can't remember anyone predicting a big boost. Too much lurid fiction is addling your brain.
I don't think anyone was predicting any big polling changes as a result of the Syria vote. My call was for an improvement in EdM's ratings among Labour voters. Not sure if that's happened; but either way it's of minor interest. Except in very broad terms Syria has past the vast majority of voters by.
The ICM Wisdom Index continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015; the Labour YouGov vote share remains firmly where it has been throughout the summer.
In other news, it was a beautiful early autumn day here in Warwickshire. The blackberry crop this year is the best I can remember. Fill your bags, buckets and bowls.
Baxtering the Wisdom poll gives LAB short 8 of majority
Yup, mangled words. Lead is what I meant. A hung Parliament with Labour having most seats continues to look the likeliest outcome.
No figures yet, but the Sunday Times editorial says
Our YouGov poll shows the Labour lead at just four points, even though most voters are not yet fully aware of the improved economic data.
As predicted by ME on HERE. No Syria boost for Labour. Indeed, now the Syrian downsides, such as they are, belong to Miliband.
Who were the lefties soothsaying a big Syrian boost for "Gas The Babies" Ed? Quite a few, as I recall.
Do you? I predicted no effect. Can't remember anyone predicting a big boost. Too much lurid fiction is addling your brain.
I don't think anyone was predicting any big polling changes as a result of the Syria vote. My call was for an improvement in EdM's ratings among Labour voters. Not sure if that's happened; but either way it's of minor interest. Except in very broad terms Syria has past the vast majority of voters by.
Mainly because the majority of the UK public are against attacking Syria:
The ICM Wisdom Index continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015; the Labour YouGov vote share remains firmly where it has been throughout the summer.
In other news, it was a beautiful early autumn day here in Warwickshire. The blackberry crop this year is the best I can remember. Fill your bags, buckets and bowls.
Baxtering the Wisdom poll gives LAB short 8 of majority
Yup, mangled words. Lead is what I meant. A hung Parliament with Labour having most seats continues to look the likeliest outcome.
The ICM Wisdom Index continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015; the Labour YouGov vote share remains firmly where it has been throughout the summer.
In other news, it was a beautiful early autumn day here in Warwickshire. The blackberry crop this year is the best I can remember. Fill your bags, buckets and bowls.
Baxtering the Wisdom poll gives LAB short 8 of majority
Yup, mangled words. Lead is what I meant. A hung Parliament with Labour having most seats continues to look the likeliest outcome.
We've all done that
We've done Ed is Crap a few times too. But it still crops up from time to time!
The ICM Wisdom Index continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015; the Labour YouGov vote share remains firmly where it has been throughout the summer.
In other news, it was a beautiful early autumn day here in Warwickshire. The blackberry crop this year is the best I can remember. Fill your bags, buckets and bowls.
Baxtering the Wisdom poll gives LAB short 8 of majority
Yup, mangled words. Lead is what I meant. A hung Parliament with Labour having most seats continues to look the likeliest outcome.
We've all done that
We've done Ed is Crap a few times too. But it still crops up from time to time!
The ICM Wisdom Index continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015; the Labour YouGov vote share remains firmly where it has been throughout the summer.
In other news, it was a beautiful early autumn day here in Warwickshire. The blackberry crop this year is the best I can remember. Fill your bags, buckets and bowls.
Baxtering the Wisdom poll gives LAB short 8 of majority
Yup, mangled words. Lead is what I meant. A hung Parliament with Labour having most seats continues to look the likeliest outcome.
We've all done that
We've done Ed is Crap a few times too. But it still crops up from time to time!
The ICM Wisdom Index continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015; the Labour YouGov vote share remains firmly where it has been throughout the summer.
In other news, it was a beautiful early autumn day here in Warwickshire. The blackberry crop this year is the best I can remember. Fill your bags, buckets and bowls.
Baxtering the Wisdom poll gives LAB short 8 of majority
Yup, mangled words. Lead is what I meant. A hung Parliament with Labour having most seats continues to look the likeliest outcome.
We've all done that
We've done Ed is Crap a few times too. But it still crops up from time to time!
another_richard Posts: 593 August 29 Will we look back on tonight as Cameron's equivalent of Brown bottling the election that never was or Major's ERM exit or Wilson's IMF bailout etc etc ?
No. we look back on it as Ed's equivalent of the election that never was.
The ICM Wisdom Index continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015; the Labour YouGov vote share remains firmly where it has been throughout the summer.
In other news, it was a beautiful early autumn day here in Warwickshire. The blackberry crop this year is the best I can remember. Fill your bags, buckets and bowls.
Baxtering the Wisdom poll gives LAB short 8 of majority
Yup, mangled words. Lead is what I meant. A hung Parliament with Labour having most seats continues to look the likeliest outcome.
Yeah, you *mangled* the words: "continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015" when you really meant "a hung parliament with Labour having most seats".
Heck. We understand. It's easily done. It's Saturday night, you've had a couple of drinks, a finger is misplaced, then suddenly you mistype thirty eight letters in a row.
No figures yet, but the Sunday Times editorial says
Our YouGov poll shows the Labour lead at just four points, even though most voters are not yet fully aware of the improved economic data.
As predicted by ME on HERE. No Syria boost for Labour. Indeed, now the Syrian downsides, such as they are, belong to Miliband.
Who were the lefties soothsaying a big Syrian boost for "Gas The Babies" Ed? Quite a few, as I recall.
Do you? I predicted no effect. Can't remember anyone predicting a big boost. Too much lurid fiction is addling your brain.
TBF I thought the Con vote would drop and Ed Miliband's rankings rise on the government shambles headlines, which turned out to be as prescient as my Olympic city tipping.
The ICM Wisdom Index continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015; the Labour YouGov vote share remains firmly where it has been throughout the summer.
In other news, it was a beautiful early autumn day here in Warwickshire. The blackberry crop this year is the best I can remember. Fill your bags, buckets and bowls.
Baxtering the Wisdom poll gives LAB short 8 of majority
Yup, mangled words. Lead is what I meant. A hung Parliament with Labour having most seats continues to look the likeliest outcome.
Yeah, you *mangled* the words: "continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015" when you really meant "a hung parliament with Labour having most seats".
Heck. We understand. It's easily done. It's Saturday night, you've had a couple of drinks, a finger is misplaced, then suddenly you mistype thirty eight letters in a row.
Tedious trolling. Yaaaawwwwwnnnnn.
Funny that SO I always thought Sean T got pissed then mistyped 38 posts in a row.
The only discrepancy is that ABC News hasn't called O'Connor yet, which is close between the two Coalition parties, but it's blue on my list since the Coalition obviously wins whatever happens.
The ICM Wisdom Index continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015; the Labour YouGov vote share remains firmly where it has been throughout the summer.
In other news, it was a beautiful early autumn day here in Warwickshire. The blackberry crop this year is the best I can remember. Fill your bags, buckets and bowls.
Baxtering the Wisdom poll gives LAB short 8 of majority
Yup, mangled words. Lead is what I meant. A hung Parliament with Labour having most seats continues to look the likeliest outcome.
Yeah, you *mangled* the words: "continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015" when you really meant "a hung parliament with Labour having most seats".
Heck. We understand. It's easily done. It's Saturday night, you've had a couple of drinks, a finger is misplaced, then suddenly you mistype thirty eight letters in a row.
Tedious trolling. Yaaaawwwwwnnnnn.
You don't even understand the concept of "trolling", you silly man.
That is true. I just don't get why people with a brain do it. That inadequates enjoy it is one thing, but intelligent people doing it when they could argue their corner, that baffles me.
The ICM Wisdom Index continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015; the Labour YouGov vote share remains firmly where it has been throughout the summer.
In other news, it was a beautiful early autumn day here in Warwickshire. The blackberry crop this year is the best I can remember. Fill your bags, buckets and bowls.
Baxtering the Wisdom poll gives LAB short 8 of majority
Yup, mangled words. Lead is what I meant. A hung Parliament with Labour having most seats continues to look the likeliest outcome.
Yeah, you *mangled* the words: "continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015" when you really meant "a hung parliament with Labour having most seats".
Heck. We understand. It's easily done. It's Saturday night, you've had a couple of drinks, a finger is misplaced, then suddenly you mistype thirty eight letters in a row.
Tedious trolling. Yaaaawwwwwnnnnn.
You don't even understand the concept of "trolling", you silly man.
That is true. I just don't get why people with a brain do it. That inadequates enjoy it is one thing, but intelligent people doing it when they could argue their corner, that baffles me.
No figures yet, but the Sunday Times editorial says
Our YouGov poll shows the Labour lead at just four points, even though most voters are not yet fully aware of the improved economic data.
As predicted by ME on HERE. No Syria boost for Labour. Indeed, now the Syrian downsides, such as they are, belong to Miliband.
Who were the lefties soothsaying a big Syrian boost for "Gas The Babies" Ed? Quite a few, as I recall.
There was a sort of temporary microbounce for Ed, which is (just as interestingly) more than can be said for UKIP. Sounds to me like the onset of Cassandra-like irrelevance; UKIP will ope not.
AveryLP – “And when Miliband learned that 5% of the British public consider him decisive, 4% strong, 3% a natural leader and 2% charismatic.”
Meh, could be worse…!
What Ed needs is a battle with the Unions to bring out his strengths.
Speaking of which, having buggered Ed up the Falkirk – I thought it a little harsh that Unite then threatened not to leave their money on the bedside table.
The ICM Wisdom Index continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015; the Labour YouGov vote share remains firmly where it has been throughout the summer.
In other news, it was a beautiful early autumn day here in Warwickshire. The blackberry crop this year is the best I can remember. Fill your bags, buckets and bowls.
Baxtering the Wisdom poll gives LAB short 8 of majority
Yup, mangled words. Lead is what I meant. A hung Parliament with Labour having most seats continues to look the likeliest outcome.
Yeah, you *mangled* the words: "continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015" when you really meant "a hung parliament with Labour having most seats".
Heck. We understand. It's easily done. It's Saturday night, you've had a couple of drinks, a finger is misplaced, then suddenly you mistype thirty eight letters in a row.
Tedious trolling. Yaaaawwwwwnnnnn.
You don't even understand the concept of "trolling", you silly man.
That is true. I just don't get why people with a brain do it. That inadequates enjoy it is one thing, but intelligent people doing it when they could argue their corner, that baffles me.
In other, much more important news, if I make all my scheduled trips between now and December I'll get my first ever BA Gold Card. It's making me ridiculously excited.
Labour scuppers any possible military response against what Assad did.
Anybody see a pattern emerging here?
Dave takes military options off the table after Sam Cams Syrian refugee photoshoots because he couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery and Hollande speaks for him. Just great. Same as swearing on his family he wouldn't reorganise the NHS. And decreeing the boundary changes, incompetent
Has it ? - We use Aldi and Lidl (Dutch, but V popular in Germany) because they sell lots of er German stuff you can't get in others like Sainsbury etc.
The problem with this sort of poliing two years from an election is that it requires a knowledge of voting behaviour that I doubt most people have.
If not they're just asking people to try out their clairvoyant skills. Most people I know don't follow polls so wouldn't have a clue. Perhaps the reason they had some success last time was that they did their Wisdom Polls close to the election when people were tuned into politics and polls?
I'm also curious whether they make their usual allowance for spirals of silence and shy Conservatives and such like? In a way I don't suppose it matters as we seem to be in in Gypsy Rose Lee land either way.
Roger, fully agree.I would imagine you would get a better response asking who they think would win the next election. I can quite imagine the vast majority of the public would not know or care what percentage each party is on, with only anoraks and politicos interested. Which then begs the question, who are giving these percentages. If it is the anoraks and politicos, surely they would have a bias. Also, again an assumption, people would take their figures from whatever other polls are telling them with added own political bias added in. As in a PB Hodge would say "I know the polls are saying 5% Labour lead, but actually Ed is crap so it should only be 1%" Whilst Tim may say" I know polls says 5% Labour lead but that's all Tory shite attacking Ed and the vast majority don't even listen, I reckon it is 8%"
I think the way it works is people judge based on their family, social and work circle so instead of one data point per person you're getting say 40 data points per person distorted by the level of accuracy. If the increase in data points outweighs the decrease in accuracy then you get a closer result.
THE founder of UKIP has launched a Eurosceptic centre-left party to challenge Labour and provide an alternative for those who feel his old party has become “racist” under the leadership of Nigel Farage.
As well as advocating Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, the fledgling party, called New Deal, will pledge to renationalise the railways and scrap the coalition’s “bedroom tax”.
In a symbolic move, Professor Alan Sked, its leader, is considering standing against Ed Miliband in the Labour leader’s Doncaster constituency in the 2015 general election.
THE Liberal Democrats are drawing up plans to hit the rich by restoring the 50p income tax rate, in addition to introducing a mansion tax and overhauling the way inheritance is taxed.
Anyone earning more than £150,000 would pay the reinstated 50p top rate.
LabourHistory Think this is the first time since 1980 that there have been Conservative (or equivalent) PMs in the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand
DAVID CAMERON and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, have begun drawing up plans for an assault on Brussels bureaucracy by slashing the number of European commissioners.
According to Whitehall sources, the two leaders have told officials to start work on a blueprint that could see the number of commissioners reduced from 28 to between six and 12.
THE founder of UKIP has launched a Eurosceptic centre-left party to challenge Labour and provide an alternative for those who feel his old party has become “racist” under the leadership of Nigel Farage.
As well as advocating Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, the fledgling party, called New Deal, will pledge to renationalise the railways and scrap the coalition’s “bedroom tax”.
In a symbolic move, Professor Alan Sked, its leader, is considering standing against Ed Miliband in the Labour leader’s Doncaster constituency in the 2015 general election.
THE Liberal Democrats are drawing up plans to hit the rich by restoring the 50p income tax rate, in addition to introducing a mansion tax and overhauling the way inheritance is taxed.
Anyone earning more than £150,000 would pay the reinstated 50p top rate.
And how will Lib Dem voters benefit from these policies?
The party that screws their student voters wants to get their support back by promising to squeeze the rich.
Has it ? - We use Aldi and Lidl (Dutch, but V popular in Germany) because they sell lots of er German stuff you can't get in others like Salisbury etc.
Mrs SSC is from them parts..!
I reckon it's partly the 'continental' factor. Plus some of their stuff has had good reviews. I've shopped there for a while, but then that's because I don't like entire aisles dedicated to different fragrances of washing up liquid.
That is true. I just don't get why people with a brain do it. That inadequates enjoy it is one thing, but intelligent people doing it when they could argue their corner, that baffles me.
I don't think Sean was trolling. Not in the sense that I'd use the word, anyway. Being a wind-up merchant, certainly.
I've had an unusual period of good fortune on my CiF-trolling lately. That's genuine trolling, but the reason I do it (despite, I hope, being somewhat intelligent) is that I play to win, under a system of rules I construed that balance vindictive enjoyment with intellectual challenge. It's not a partisan thing, I have alter egos who post from all manner of political guises - some more appropriate to attack a thread with, than another (character selection is a vital strategic element of the game).
The basic aim is to write a comment which is as absurd, extreme, or factually inaccurate as possible while still gaining the greatest score (number of comment recommendations is one measure, which works well for populist comments; a more subtle one is number of replies from other users - particularly good for gauging the effectiveness of a deliberately "controversial" comment).
Something like a "goal" is scored if a comment is the top-recommended in a thread, or gets a half-century or even a century of recommendations, despite containing amusingly (to me) daft content . Anything along the lines of an elaborate and malicious conspiracy theory; an earnest call for somebody to be jailed/executed/assassinated; a littering of basic factual inaccuracies; a deliberate side-tracking of the debate; absurd bitterness, racism, sexism or nationalism - or alternatively, absurd accusations of racism, sexism or nationalism.
Not only have I been scoring higher than usual lately while riffing some ridiculous stuff, I've managed a rare double-century, and even got a "Guardian pick"! The skill is keeping in character, writing something which is rhetorically convincing despite falling apart under a moment of analysis, and trying to hit the right balance between vote-seeking or controversy-causing, and lapsing into absurdity or the obvious spoof. This is the reason why I troll, but I have far too much respect for Mike and the PB team to troll on their site at his expense. The Scott Trust is basically asking for it, though. I'd troll the Telegraph too but I regard their BTL denizens as unspoofable.
THE Liberal Democrats are drawing up plans to hit the rich by restoring the 50p income tax rate, in addition to introducing a mansion tax and overhauling the way inheritance is taxed.
Anyone earning more than £150,000 would pay the reinstated 50p top rate.
And how will Lib Dem voters benefit from these policies?
The party that screws their student voters wants to get their support back by promising to squeeze the rich.
Unspoofable.
They need things to give away in a compromise agreement, Avery. With no pesky moral issues.
Inheritance tax change - need to live 15 years instead of 7 years to avoid tax on gifts.
CGT changes - not specified but I suspect it'll be their previous plan to reduce CGT exemption from £10,900 right down to £1,500 + all gains to then be taxed as income.
They are basically telling anyone who has any savings whatsoever that they would be mad to vote LD.
How will this go down in southern Con / LD marginals?
a poll conducted by YouGov for The Sunday Times has cast doubt on the popularity of the selloff with the general public. An overwhelming 70% of respondents said they were opposed to privatisation. Public opposition could give ministers pause for thought as they weigh up the risks of pressing ahead with the sale.
@Carola – “I reckon it's partly the 'continental' factor.”
You may have a point there – I’ve bumped into quite a few shoppers (shock, he does the shopping) who have mentioned the ‘Deli’ feel to the place. – a novelty perhaps, but as you say, both have had good write ups in the press.
THE Liberal Democrats are drawing up plans to hit the rich by restoring the 50p income tax rate, in addition to introducing a mansion tax and overhauling the way inheritance is taxed.
Anyone earning more than £150,000 would pay the reinstated 50p top rate.
And how will Lib Dem voters benefit from these policies?
The party that screws their student voters wants to get their support back by promising to squeeze the rich.
Unspoofable.
They need things to give away in a compromise agreement, Avery. With no pesky moral issues.
I see that. Like tim's "trading bets".
But what I don't see is why the Lib Dems aren't promoting policies which directly affect their voter base.
For example, they have successfully "owned" the above inflation rise in personal tax allowance with plausible and sellable claims of taking the low paid out of tax.
Isn't it this seam they should be mining? Rather than storing up trading chips?
The public already knows Lab = high spending + high taxes - it'll be quite easy to ram that message home.
But these LD plans will mean he can make exactly the same message about the LDs. I don't think the public is so aware of LD tax policies - this will just put the whole issue on a plate for Dave.
a poll conducted by YouGov for The Sunday Times has cast doubt on the popularity of the selloff with the general public. An overwhelming 70% of respondents said they were opposed to privatisation. Public opposition could give ministers pause for thought as they weigh up the risks of pressing ahead with the sale.
I don't think people really understand how privatisation would/wouldn't change the service they receive. I make a point of never blaming the public for this, it's something that I hope the government will come out and do. Maybe they could mailshot it!
THE Liberal Democrats are drawing up plans to hit the rich by restoring the 50p income tax rate, in addition to introducing a mansion tax and overhauling the way inheritance is taxed.
Anyone earning more than £150,000 would pay the reinstated 50p top rate.
And how will Lib Dem voters benefit from these policies?
The party that screws their student voters wants to get their support back by promising to squeeze the rich.
Unspoofable.
They need things to give away in a compromise agreement, Avery. With no pesky moral issues.
I see that. Like tim's "trading bets".
But what I don't see is why the Lib Dems aren't promoting policies which directly affect their voter base.
For example, they have successfully "owned" the above inflation rise in personal tax allowance with plausible and sellable claims of taking the low paid out of tax.
Isn't it this seam they should be mining? Rather than storing up trading chips?
It does feel a bit like they're fighting someone else's war with the 50p, I agree. If we're at £10,000 PA by the election as planned (? I get confused as to how long these things take to come into effect) where do the LDs go from there?
Lab YouGov lead at 4% - only 1% better than lowest since a couple of years ago
Lab ICM Wisdom lead at 1% - lowest ever
Not a great night of polling for Ed.
No new thread on these polls? Highly significant, and for those of us who saw the tide turning before the Syria vote and knew the latter would be at best a red herring, vindication.
Nearly two years to go, a few points behind and the economy beginning to ramp up beautifully? Money on the Conservatives for an outright win. The writing's on the wall.
Any indication yet on whether the Tories plan to put the abolition of 45p in their manifesto? Presumably not openly?
How about:
We will set to set rates of income tax for high earners at levels which maximise tax yields to the Treasury and which ensure they continue to contribute a increased share of overall income tax revenues.
The public already knows Lab = high spending + high taxes - it'll be quite easy to ram that message home.
But these LD plans will mean he can make exactly the same message about the LDs. I don't think the public is so aware of LD tax policies - this will just put the whole issue on a plate for Dave.
? The Conservatives are also a high taxes + high spending party.
Any indication yet on whether the Tories plan to put the abolition of 45p in their manifesto? Presumably not openly?
How about:
We will set to set rates of income tax for high earners at levels which maximise tax yields to the Treasury and which ensure they continue to contribute a increased share of overall income tax revenues.
It will be higher by the GE - as it is bound to rise again in April 2015.
Thanks Mike. I've been a stronger supporter of raising the PA because of the way that it can help simplify both individuals' and the state's tax administration, but I think around £10,000 inflation-adjusted might be about the end of the road.
I think the most inventive policies might come out of looking at the minimum wage, in a broad sense. (Not just a hike in the rate itself.)
a poll conducted by YouGov for The Sunday Times has cast doubt on the popularity of the selloff with the general public. An overwhelming 70% of respondents said they were opposed to privatisation. Public opposition could give ministers pause for thought as they weigh up the risks of pressing ahead with the sale.
Polls say the public wants rail franchises nationalised.
Can't see the Government doing it though Labour may play it for populist gain in their manifesto.
Equally can't see the government deferring £3 bn plus from RM privatisation now they taken the (long term) hit on pension liabilities.
Who is going to march in the street to stop posties being privatised?
Any indication yet on whether the Tories plan to put the abolition of 45p in their manifesto? Presumably not openly?
How about:
We will set to set rates of income tax for high earners at levels which maximise tax yields to the Treasury and which ensure they continue to contribute a increased share of overall income tax revenues.
Well they can try Avery!
Depends how long it takes to fully understand (or to make the point arguable) over the 50p>45p switch.
THE founder of UKIP has launched a Eurosceptic centre-left party to challenge Labour and provide an alternative for those who feel his old party has become “racist” under the leadership of Nigel Farage.
As well as advocating Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, the fledgling party, called New Deal, will pledge to renationalise the railways and scrap the coalition’s “bedroom tax”.
In a symbolic move, Professor Alan Sked, its leader, is considering standing against Ed Miliband in the Labour leader’s Doncaster constituency in the 2015 general election.
It'll be interesting to see if anyone is bankrolling 'New Deal'. Are Labour worried about UKIP cutting into their vote?
Any indication yet on whether the Tories plan to put the abolition of 45p in their manifesto? Presumably not openly?
How about:
We will set to set rates of income tax for high earners at levels which maximise tax yields to the Treasury and which ensure they continue to contribute a increased share of overall income tax revenues.
Well they can try Avery!
Depends how long it takes to fully understand (or to make the point arguable) over the 50p>45p switch.
I am not sure that Osborne will go for a hard sell on Laffer curves.
I am thinking more of a defensive position which leaves options open.
"We have no plans to increase VAT".
Still Osborne has stated that current fiscal plans will not require further increases in taxation to meet his deficit reduction targets. And this is increasingly looking to stack up now that the economic growth has achieved escape velocity.
"BRITAIN’S army of postmen could be in line for a windfall of about £2,000 each as ministers aim to give the green light to a £3bn market listing of Royal Mail this week.
Final approval for the controversial float could come at the same time as George Osborne pushes the button on an even larger fundraising — the sale of about £5bn of shares in Lloyds Banking Group."
Any indication yet on whether the Tories plan to put the abolition of 45p in their manifesto? Presumably not openly?
How about:
We will set to set rates of income tax for high earners at levels which maximise tax yields to the Treasury and which ensure they continue to contribute a increased share of overall income tax revenues.
You mean, lower it to 40%...?
I am not that cynical, Simon!
But setting it at a level which maximises both numbers of taxpayers and yield per taxpayer should be the goal with the proviso that any decrease in tax rate doesn't result in high earners contributing a smaller proportion of overall tax revenues.
And if I was Chancellor I would want pretty robust cost/benefit evidence in place before making any change.
No figures yet, but the Sunday Times editorial says
Our YouGov poll shows the Labour lead at just four points, even though most voters are not yet fully aware of the improved economic data.
As predicted by ME on HERE. No Syria boost for Labour. Indeed, now the Syrian downsides, such as they are, belong to Miliband.
Who were the lefties soothsaying a big Syrian boost for "Gas The Babies" Ed? Quite a few, as I recall.
There was a sort of temporary microbounce for Ed, which is (just as interestingly) more than can be said for UKIP. Sounds to me like the onset of Cassandra-like irrelevance; UKIP will ope not.
By accident Cerise did something that would have got him a decent boost at least inside the Labour party but then he ran away from it. If he'd done a Galloway (minus the Israel bits) he'd have shored himself up nicely at least within Labour. Very odd.
But setting it at a level which maximises both numbers of taxpayers and yield per taxpayer should be the goal with the proviso that any decrease in tax rate doesn't result in high earners contributing a smaller proportion of overall tax revenues.
And if I was Chancellor I would want pretty robust cost/benefit evidence in place before making any change.
Surely the answer has to be a reduction in the top rate to 40% combined with a further reduction in allowances - eg further reduce relief for pension contributions or restrict that relief to the basic rate.
A side issue is going to be the need to restore the PA to people above £100k. If that isn't done the anomaly between £100k and £120k of an effective rate of 60% is just going to become even more absurd.
Like Skoda a few years ago, Aldi/Lidl are only going to get bigger and more popular in the UK as folk overcome their previous perceptions and realise that you can get good quality basic essential products at far more affordable prices without the 'fashionable label'. And they will do it the same way Skoda did it, by letting the product do the talking until it becomes the best free PR available. I bet that Skoda PR department broke open champagne after that Top Gear episode that saw their car go head to head with the far more fashionable Mini Cooper in a race between two of the presenters and win. We bought a second hand Skoda fabia a few years ago happy in the knowledge that we were basically getting a Volkswagen under the bonnet, but just without their fashionable signature on the front grid for half the price. Its now heading to a landmark 200,000 miles on the clock with some of its biggest critics/jokers now willing it on to make it.
At the start of the last recession, Lidl and Aldi started to feature more in the media because of the rise in their popularity was being portrayed in a negative way as another sign that people were struggling and having to cut back drastically on their food shopping. These stores have now turned this around as their popularity has risen, and they now get an increasingly good press because they have been included with the big boys when it comes to product testing. And some of their products have been causing a stir and out performing other far more expensive and well known brands in blind tastings.
Their wine is a good example, we recently popped in and bought a wee selection to try. One of their wines was so good and great value at under four quid that we went straight back and stocked up on it. Usually at the other supermarkets we take the gamble of trying wines that have been reduced to half price in the hope that we do get that bargain wine that really warranted its previous price tag. It can be really hit and miss.
@Carola – “I reckon it's partly the 'continental' factor.”
You may have a point there – I’ve bumped into quite a few shoppers (shock, he does the shopping) who have mentioned the ‘Deli’ feel to the place. – a novelty perhaps, but as you say, both have had good write ups in the press.
That is true. I just don't get why people with a brain do it. That inadequates enjoy it is one thing, but intelligent people doing it when they could argue their corner, that baffles me.
I don't think Sean was trolling. Not in the sense that I'd use the word, anyway. Being a wind-up merchant, certainly.
I've had an unusual period of good fortune on my CiF-trolling lately. That's genuine trolling, but the reason I do it (despite, I hope, being somewhat intelligent) is that I play to win, under a system of rules I construed that balance vindictive enjoyment with intellectual challenge. It's not a partisan thing, I have alter egos who post from all manner of political guises - some more appropriate to attack a thread with, than another (character selection is a vital strategic element of the game).
Not only have I been scoring higher than usual lately while riffing some ridiculous stuff, I've managed a rare double-century, and even got a "Guardian pick"! The skill is keeping in character, writing something which is rhetorically convincing despite falling apart under a moment of analysis, and trying to hit the right balance between vote-seeking or controversy-causing, and lapsing into absurdity or the obvious spoof. This is the reason why I troll, but I have far too much respect for Mike and the PB team to troll on their site at his expense. The Scott Trust is basically asking for it, though. I'd troll the Telegraph too but I regard their BTL denizens as unspoofable.
Yeah, whatevs, I i did all that years ago and wrote about it, YAWWWWWN.
Two right-wingers who troll CiF on just this one thread. Are there any actual genuine commenters there or is it just right-wing trolls trolling each other?
THE founder of UKIP has launched a Eurosceptic centre-left party to challenge Labour and provide an alternative for those who feel his old party has become “racist” under the leadership of Nigel Farage.
As well as advocating Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, the fledgling party, called New Deal, will pledge to renationalise the railways and scrap the coalition’s “bedroom tax”.
In a symbolic move, Professor Alan Sked, its leader, is considering standing against Ed Miliband in the Labour leader’s Doncaster constituency in the 2015 general election.
It'll be interesting to see if anyone is bankrolling 'New Deal'. Are Labour worried about UKIP cutting into their vote?
I doubt it as if this party was successful they could take Labour votes in the long term.
Can't New Deal going anywhere. On economic issues there are already plenty of Left wing parties opposing the coalition. On Europe, UKIP are already well established as a brand and the Tories are also somewhat sceptical. For a new party to succeed they would need a niche no-one else was representing.
I really don't know the answer to what rate is optimal.
What I would say is, at this level of income, a very large proportion of tax paid will be elective. And it is this discretionary nature of payment which argues for a government knowing as much as possible about its clients.
Take the stats on high earning bankers which I reposted downthread. Here is a group of 2,500 individuals who earn £3.5 billion in a single year half of which is paid that year as taxable income (with prior year's deferred bonuses of, say, £1.5 bn to tax in addition).
And this group represents a 'market share' of such high earners of some 75% of the whole of the EU.
If you were a private business chasing that market, you would invest resource into researching and understanding your client base, their attitudes and all factors which contribute to their presence in the UK and their willingness and ability to pay tax, elective or otherwise.
You would want to know as much as possible about the opportunities to increase the client base as well the existence of competitive threats etc. Your staff would know better what motivates, say, a hedge fund executive and firm, to locate and pay tax in the UK than the hedgie himself.
You would have plans to encourage relocation to the UK and to make tax payment as convenient and less stressful as possible.
You would also want to be able to place the revenue collection and growth business in the context of an overall business plan. For example, there is no point encouraging hedge funds to locate in the UK simply for their tax yield: economic risk and social impact would need to be assessed as well.
You would also have researched the task of optimising yields. Your people would be able to tell you exactly what rates would yield what revenues almost down to each individual!
I am sure that HMRC have made some steps towards this type of operation but I would also expect it to fall far short of any equivalent operation in, say, an asset management company chasing the same client base.
OK, mild rant over.
On the tax structure and PA banding anomalies, this would require tax reform which has had to be a lower priority for the Coalition in current economic circumstances than tax yield maximisation. As the fiscal outlook recovers then the opportunity to reform will arise.
Let's hope Osborne has the appetite for such reform and that he is given the opportunity to pursue it in a second term!
"Two right-wingers who troll CiF on just this one thread. Are there any actual genuine commenters there or is it just right-wing trolls trolling each other?"
@edmundintokyo I say this very tongue in cheek, but how long have you been a regular poster on PB? We have over the years had some classic posters who trolled this site, some far more successful than others. IIRC, the Professor was so obvious that they crashed and burned every time, but we had another brilliant troll that appeared periodically and used to catch a few new posters out every time. I can't remember the name tag as they have not posted for a long time, but I am sure it was Adrian someone or other.
Two right-wingers who troll CiF on just this one thread. Are there any actual genuine commenters there or is it just right-wing trolls trolling each other?
I found to my surprise that my parody accounts on CiF can get away with almost anything, so long as you don't ad hom the writer of the article. Yet when I used CiF to comment "properly", some very innocuous stuff got moderated, which made me far less likely to engage seriously. I basically took it as an invitation to troll. Because of this contrast, I'm even more extremely impressed with the way Mike and the team handle the moderation on PB.
Have I become an honorary PB right-winger these days? That's a worrying description, I'd probably see myself as a pluralist before anything else. (I think that's a politer way of putting TSE's "I think you're all crap", just appended by "but in the best light, I can see where you're coming from.")
Two right-wingers who troll CiF on just this one thread. Are there any actual genuine commenters there or is it just right-wing trolls trolling each other?
I found to my surprise that my parody accounts on CiF can get away with almost anything, so long as you don't ad hom the writer of the article. Yet when I used CiF to comment "properly", some very innocuous stuff got moderated, which made me far less likely to engage seriously. I basically took it as an invitation to troll. Because of this contrast, I'm even more extremely impressed with the way Mike and the team handle the moderation on PB.
Have I become an honorary PB right-winger these days? That's a worrying description, I'd probably see myself as a pluralist before anything else. (I think that's a politer way of putting TSE's "I think you're all crap", just appended by "but in the best light, I can see where you're coming from.")
I don't suppose they care whether they've got a comment section full of trolls or not as long as they're seeing the ads...
Well I don't regard you as a honorary gentleman on PB, and certainly not a particularly clever PB honorary right wing troller. So as a result, I simple skim over your posts as I regard them and your opinion a parody of the current position that Ed Miliband finds himself in. But I await your latest cowardly attempt at ungraciously extricating yourself from any praise from another poster here, but whereby you manage to really insult the person who was being trolled as a result.
Two right-wingers who troll CiF on just this one thread. Are there any actual genuine commenters there or is it just right-wing trolls trolling each other?
I found to my surprise that my parody accounts on CiF can get away with almost anything, so long as you don't ad hom the writer of the article. Yet when I used CiF to comment "properly", some very innocuous stuff got moderated, which made me far less likely to engage seriously. I basically took it as an invitation to troll. Because of this contrast, I'm even more extremely impressed with the way Mike and the team handle the moderation on PB.
Have I become an honorary PB right-winger these days? That's a worrying description, I'd probably see myself as a pluralist before anything else. (I think that's a politer way of putting TSE's "I think you're all crap", just appended by "but in the best light, I can see where you're coming from.")
The voting system in the senate in Oz is not optional. 98% vote "1" above the line instead of numbering all the boxes below the line. As about 100 boxes to fill in, in some states it makes sense.
There is confusion with the Liberal Democrats standing in Oz, as non anoraks assumed they were the Liberals, but they are a gun toting group with limited support. They did not advertise, relying on confusion. Sadly in NSW they got the first spot on the ticket, the premium position for donkey vote and those with no knowledge, so almost 9% voted for them instead of Liberals thinking they were voting liberal. they got elected!
Almost as bad, parties with no support got elected on preferences. the Motoring enthusiasts party, with just 0.52% of the vote, picked up a seat after preferences from 30 plus parties to them. Newly formed before election, they hold balance of power, and main policy is to be able to drive 4wd's through national parks.
In Perth, WA, a sporting party got all the preferences and amazingly got a seat, they stand for everyone doing exercise. The main parties who had all the votes were not preferenced by each other and lost out.
The balance of power is held by people who nobody voted for. So a change to the system is needed at some stage, not that the newbies in the Senate will vote for change as it would remove them next time! The real liberals just scraped a seat after preferences against them in NSW and ACT, with no Liberal Democrat votes these would have been a formality.
Had those 2 seats not been won then Greens/Labour would have controlled senate and stopped the governments new legislation!
Democracy in action, but copying the Oz system where everyone is forced to vote and the position on a ballot is crucial is not to be recommended.
THE founder of UKIP has launched a Eurosceptic centre-left party to challenge Labour and provide an alternative for those who feel his old party has become “racist” under the leadership of Nigel Farage.
As well as advocating Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, the fledgling party, called New Deal, will pledge to renationalise the railways and scrap the coalition’s “bedroom tax”.
In a symbolic move, Professor Alan Sked, its leader, is considering standing against Ed Miliband in the Labour leader’s Doncaster constituency in the 2015 general election.
It'll be interesting to see if anyone is bankrolling 'New Deal'. Are Labour worried about UKIP cutting into their vote?
I doubt it as if this party was successful they could take Labour votes in the long term.
Can't New Deal going anywhere. On economic issues there are already plenty of Left wing parties opposing the coalition. On Europe, UKIP are already well established as a brand and the Tories are also somewhat sceptical. For a new party to succeed they would need a niche no-one else was representing.
I thought their purpose might just be to blunt UKIP's momentum.
That said, my reason for suggesting that is entirely down to a speech Patrick O'Flynn gave where he warned about new anti-EU parties appearing with 'funny money' behind them, designed to split the anti-EU vote.
Your financial situation in next 12 months; Better:16(0) Worse: 41(-2) Same: 39(+3)
Response to Syria situation Well/badly: DC:41/45 EdM; 27/45
Thinking about Ed Miliband's leadership of the Labour party, do you think he... Has been too close to the Trade Unions, too distant, or has got the balance about right?
Too close: 31(-6) Too distant:18(+6) Right:18(-2) DK: 34(+3)
And do you think Ed Miliband is right or wrong to try and reduce Labour's links with the Unions? Right:38(-6) Wrong:18(+5) DK:24(+3)
It would appear that the closer we get to nation-wide elections (EU, GE) the smaller Labour's lead.
I echo JackW's view - Ed Milliband will never be PM: can you SERIOUSLY see him at a G20 Summit standing up for anything but the other delegates when they entered the room?
It would appear that the closer we get to nation-wide elections (EU, GE) the smaller Labour's lead.
I echo JackW's view - Ed Milliband will never be PM: can you SERIOUSLY see him at a G20 Summit standing up for anything but the other delegates when they entered the room?
Comments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10293825/No-attack-on-Syria-no-matter-what-say-voters.html
So far that hasn't happened, though I'm not surprised by the Tories not taking a hit.
There was this polling just before the Commons vote, which made think Dave would be ok.
46% of voters believe that when it comes to Syria Cameron is genuinely concerned to do what is right & in Britain's interests. 33% Disagree
Meh, could be worse…!
Labour sells Assad chemical weapons.
Assad use's chemical weapons against his people.
Labour scuppers any possible military response against what Assad did.
Anybody see a pattern emerging here?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dERmb2NsbmpUNmlyOHplOTNOTE9iZVE#gid=0
Seats that were being defended by Labor:
Petrie
Reid
Lilley
Capricornia
Lingiari
Eden-Monaro
Parramatta
Dobell
Barton
McEwen
Lyons
Seats that were being defended by the Coalition:
Solomon
Fairfax
Indi
The only discrepancy is that ABC News hasn't called O'Connor yet, which is close between the two Coalition parties, but it's blue on my list since the Coalition obviously wins whatever happens.
Lab Opinium lead at 5% - lowest ever
Lab YouGov lead at 4% - only 1% better than lowest since a couple of years ago
Lab ICM Wisdom lead at 1% - lowest ever
Not a great night of polling for Ed.
Jane Merrick @janemerrick23 2h
"Aldi Mum" + free childcare to decide election - our @indyonsunday splash pic.twitter.com/yrVdZTChqP @carolineflintmp
It’s just not, British…!
I engage in satire, he's unspoofable, you're a troll
You waffle
He, she, it trolls
Time to lay down arms.
Armistice has been declared.
Mrs SSC is from them parts..!
THE founder of UKIP has launched a Eurosceptic centre-left party to challenge Labour and provide an alternative for those who feel his old party has become “racist” under the leadership of Nigel Farage.
As well as advocating Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, the fledgling party, called New Deal, will pledge to renationalise the railways and scrap the coalition’s “bedroom tax”.
In a symbolic move, Professor Alan Sked, its leader, is considering standing against Ed Miliband in the Labour leader’s Doncaster constituency in the 2015 general election.
Anyone earning more than £150,000 would pay the reinstated 50p top rate.
According to Whitehall sources, the two leaders have told officials to start work on a blueprint that could see the number of commissioners reduced from 28 to between six and 12.
The party that screws their student voters wants to get their support back by promising to squeeze the rich.
Unspoofable.
I've had an unusual period of good fortune on my CiF-trolling lately. That's genuine trolling, but the reason I do it (despite, I hope, being somewhat intelligent) is that I play to win, under a system of rules I construed that balance vindictive enjoyment with intellectual challenge. It's not a partisan thing, I have alter egos who post from all manner of political guises - some more appropriate to attack a thread with, than another (character selection is a vital strategic element of the game).
The basic aim is to write a comment which is as absurd, extreme, or factually inaccurate as possible while still gaining the greatest score (number of comment recommendations is one measure, which works well for populist comments; a more subtle one is number of replies from other users - particularly good for gauging the effectiveness of a deliberately "controversial" comment).
Something like a "goal" is scored if a comment is the top-recommended in a thread, or gets a half-century or even a century of recommendations, despite containing amusingly (to me) daft content . Anything along the lines of an elaborate and malicious conspiracy theory; an earnest call for somebody to be jailed/executed/assassinated; a littering of basic factual inaccuracies; a deliberate side-tracking of the debate; absurd bitterness, racism, sexism or nationalism - or alternatively, absurd accusations of racism, sexism or nationalism.
Not only have I been scoring higher than usual lately while riffing some ridiculous stuff, I've managed a rare double-century, and even got a "Guardian pick"! The skill is keeping in character, writing something which is rhetorically convincing despite falling apart under a moment of analysis, and trying to hit the right balance between vote-seeking or controversy-causing, and lapsing into absurdity or the obvious spoof. This is the reason why I troll, but I have far too much respect for Mike and the PB team to troll on their site at his expense. The Scott Trust is basically asking for it, though. I'd troll the Telegraph too but I regard their BTL denizens as unspoofable.
Inheritance tax change - need to live 15 years instead of 7 years to avoid tax on gifts.
CGT changes - not specified but I suspect it'll be their previous plan to reduce CGT exemption from £10,900 right down to £1,500 + all gains to then be taxed as income.
They are basically telling anyone who has any savings whatsoever that they would be mad to vote LD.
How will this go down in southern Con / LD marginals?
a poll conducted by YouGov for The Sunday Times has cast doubt on the popularity of the selloff with the general public. An overwhelming 70% of respondents said they were opposed to privatisation. Public opposition could give ministers pause for thought as they weigh up the risks of pressing ahead with the sale.
You may have a point there – I’ve bumped into quite a few shoppers (shock, he does the shopping) who have mentioned the ‘Deli’ feel to the place. – a novelty perhaps, but as you say, both have had good write ups in the press.
But what I don't see is why the Lib Dems aren't promoting policies which directly affect their voter base.
For example, they have successfully "owned" the above inflation rise in personal tax allowance with plausible and sellable claims of taking the low paid out of tax.
Isn't it this seam they should be mining? Rather than storing up trading chips?
The public already knows Lab = high spending + high taxes - it'll be quite easy to ram that message home.
But these LD plans will mean he can make exactly the same message about the LDs. I don't think the public is so aware of LD tax policies - this will just put the whole issue on a plate for Dave.
Nearly two years to go, a few points behind and the economy beginning to ramp up beautifully? Money on the Conservatives for an outright win. The writing's on the wall.
It will be higher by the GE - as it is bound to rise again in April 2015.
We will set to set rates of income tax for high earners at levels which maximise tax yields to the Treasury and which ensure they continue to contribute a increased share of overall income tax revenues.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/01/fisking-the-coalitions-deficit-reduction-boast/
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331505/austerity-uk-edition-part-2-veronique-de-rugy
I think the most inventive policies might come out of looking at the minimum wage, in a broad sense. (Not just a hike in the rate itself.)
Can't see the Government doing it though Labour may play it for populist gain in their manifesto.
Equally can't see the government deferring £3 bn plus from RM privatisation now they taken the (long term) hit on pension liabilities.
Who is going to march in the street to stop posties being privatised?
Depends how long it takes to fully understand (or to make the point arguable) over the 50p>45p switch.
I am thinking more of a defensive position which leaves options open.
"We have no plans to increase VAT".
Still Osborne has stated that current fiscal plans will not require further increases in taxation to meet his deficit reduction targets. And this is increasingly looking to stack up now that the economic growth has achieved escape velocity.
A practical test, tim: Tell me what tax policy you would adopt to maximise revenues from this strategic advantage enjoyed by the UK?
"BRITAIN’S army of postmen could be in line for a windfall of about £2,000 each as ministers aim to give the green light to a £3bn market listing of Royal Mail this week.
Final approval for the controversial float could come at the same time as George Osborne pushes the button on an even larger fundraising — the sale of about £5bn of shares in Lloyds Banking Group."
But setting it at a level which maximises both numbers of taxpayers and yield per taxpayer should be the goal with the proviso that any decrease in tax rate doesn't result in high earners contributing a smaller proportion of overall tax revenues.
And if I was Chancellor I would want pretty robust cost/benefit evidence in place before making any change.
A side issue is going to be the need to restore the PA to people above £100k. If that isn't done the anomaly between £100k and £120k of an effective rate of 60% is just going to become even more absurd.
At the start of the last recession, Lidl and Aldi started to feature more in the media because of the rise in their popularity was being portrayed in a negative way as another sign that people were struggling and having to cut back drastically on their food shopping. These stores have now turned this around as their popularity has risen, and they now get an increasingly good press because they have been included with the big boys when it comes to product testing. And some of their products have been causing a stir and out performing other far more expensive and well known brands in blind tastings.
Their wine is a good example, we recently popped in and bought a wee selection to try. One of their wines was so good and great value at under four quid that we went straight back and stocked up on it. Usually at the other supermarkets we take the gamble of trying wines that have been reduced to half price in the hope that we do get that bargain wine that really warranted its previous price tag. It can be really hit and miss.
Can't New Deal going anywhere. On economic issues there are already plenty of Left wing parties opposing the coalition. On Europe, UKIP are already well established as a brand and the Tories are also somewhat sceptical. For a new party to succeed they would need a niche no-one else was representing.
I really don't know the answer to what rate is optimal.
What I would say is, at this level of income, a very large proportion of tax paid will be elective. And it is this discretionary nature of payment which argues for a government knowing as much as possible about its clients.
Take the stats on high earning bankers which I reposted downthread. Here is a group of 2,500 individuals who earn £3.5 billion in a single year half of which is paid that year as taxable income (with prior year's deferred bonuses of, say, £1.5 bn to tax in addition).
And this group represents a 'market share' of such high earners of some 75% of the whole of the EU.
If you were a private business chasing that market, you would invest resource into researching and understanding your client base, their attitudes and all factors which contribute to their presence in the UK and their willingness and ability to pay tax, elective or otherwise.
You would want to know as much as possible about the opportunities to increase the client base as well the existence of competitive threats etc. Your staff would know better what motivates, say, a hedge fund executive and firm, to locate and pay tax in the UK than the hedgie himself.
You would have plans to encourage relocation to the UK and to make tax payment as convenient and less stressful as possible.
You would also want to be able to place the revenue collection and growth business in the context of an overall business plan. For example, there is no point encouraging hedge funds to locate in the UK simply for their tax yield: economic risk and social impact would need to be assessed as well.
You would also have researched the task of optimising yields. Your people would be able to tell you exactly what rates would yield what revenues almost down to each individual!
I am sure that HMRC have made some steps towards this type of operation but I would also expect it to fall far short of any equivalent operation in, say, an asset management company chasing the same client base.
OK, mild rant over.
On the tax structure and PA banding anomalies, this would require tax reform which has had to be a lower priority for the Coalition in current economic circumstances than tax yield maximisation. As the fiscal outlook recovers then the opportunity to reform will arise.
Let's hope Osborne has the appetite for such reform and that he is given the opportunity to pursue it in a second term!
@edmundintokyo I say this very tongue in cheek, but how long have you been a regular poster on PB? We have over the years had some classic posters who trolled this site, some far more successful than others. IIRC, the Professor was so obvious that they crashed and burned every time, but we had another brilliant troll that appeared periodically and used to catch a few new posters out every time. I can't remember the name tag as they have not posted for a long time, but I am sure it was Adrian someone or other.
Have I become an honorary PB right-winger these days? That's a worrying description, I'd probably see myself as a pluralist before anything else. (I think that's a politer way of putting TSE's "I think you're all crap", just appended by "but in the best light, I can see where you're coming from.")
The voting system in the senate in Oz is not optional. 98% vote "1" above the line instead of numbering all the boxes below the line. As about 100 boxes to fill in, in some states it makes sense.
There is confusion with the Liberal Democrats standing in Oz, as non anoraks assumed they were the Liberals, but they are a gun toting group with limited support. They did not advertise, relying on confusion.
Sadly in NSW they got the first spot on the ticket, the premium position for donkey vote and those with no knowledge, so almost 9% voted for them instead of Liberals thinking they were voting liberal. they got elected!
Almost as bad, parties with no support got elected on preferences. the Motoring enthusiasts party, with just 0.52% of the vote, picked up a seat after preferences from 30 plus parties to them. Newly formed before election, they hold balance of power, and main policy is to be able to drive 4wd's through national parks.
In Perth, WA, a sporting party got all the preferences and amazingly got a seat, they stand for everyone doing exercise.
The main parties who had all the votes were not preferenced by each other and lost out.
The balance of power is held by people who nobody voted for.
So a change to the system is needed at some stage, not that the newbies in the Senate will vote for change as it would remove them next time!
The real liberals just scraped a seat after preferences against them in NSW and ACT, with no Liberal Democrat votes these would have been a formality.
Had those 2 seats not been won then Greens/Labour would have controlled senate and stopped the governments new legislation!
Democracy in action, but copying the Oz system where everyone is forced to vote and the position on a ballot is crucial is not to be recommended.
That said, my reason for suggesting that is entirely down to a speech Patrick O'Flynn gave where he warned about new anti-EU parties appearing with 'funny money' behind them, designed to split the anti-EU vote.
http://youtu.be/U639JXpfabY
Latest YouGov/Sunday Times results 6th September - Con 34%, Lab 38%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%; APP -28
Well/badly:
DC: -15 (-19)
EdM: -46(-39)
NC: -53(-47)
Coalition: -17(-20)
Your financial situation in next 12 months;
Better:16(0)
Worse: 41(-2)
Same: 39(+3)
Response to Syria situation
Well/badly:
DC:41/45
EdM; 27/45
Thinking about Ed Miliband's leadership of the
Labour party, do you think he...
Has been too close to the Trade Unions, too
distant, or has got the balance about right?
Too close: 31(-6)
Too distant:18(+6)
Right:18(-2)
DK: 34(+3)
And do you think Ed Miliband is right or wrong to
try and reduce Labour's links with the Unions?
Right:38(-6)
Wrong:18(+5)
DK:24(+3)
Net well/badly
All (-46)
Lab (-4)
Ukip (-85)
Lab10 (-16)
LD10 (-42)
60+ (-64)
By comparison, here's Dave's numbers
All (-15)
Con (+81)
Ukip (-51)
Con10 (+42)
LD10 (-30)
60+ (-7)
The Labour leader says he wants to "build a party truly rooted in the lives of all working people".
Earlier, his deputy Harriet Harman said Mr Miliband was right not to apologise to the Unite union.
It came after an internal report cleared the union of trying to rig the selection of Karie Murphy as a Labour election candidate in Falkirk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24004805
I echo JackW's view - Ed Milliband will never be PM: can you SERIOUSLY see him at a G20 Summit standing up for anything but the other delegates when they entered the room?
Welcome I say, welcome.