Madrid pays a heavy Olympic price for Gibraltar. ...
I wonder what Madrid might actually pay? If they for example offered us around GBP1x10^12 and we could essentially pay off our national debt then I might be tempted to persuade the residents.
Spain would then finish up with a useless rock which would of course be paid for by Germany, and we'd end up with a great credit rating plus a few new (and well bribed) immigrants. What's not to like?
The outcome seems to be very satisfactory to the people. It seems odd to me that it's only by accident (to put it politely) that the electorate can get a satisfactory outcome from parliament.
In fact, it seems to me that it only happened because the two front benches were engaged in party-political brinksmanship.
... Public opinion did not reflect the lack of a sound case for military intervention, but an absence of public trust political leadership.
Yes. Trust, like respect, has to be earned. Track records.
TSE - " imagined slights". There is more posts about "disaster for Ed M" then there is posts attacking Tim....and that is saying something.
Your point the other night complaining about why there was no by-elections thread was a case in point, only on PB.
Are you taking it personally?You are doing a good job hosting the site but Labour supporters can complain when the posts become one-dimensional with the same tweets being posted repeatedly!
I take nothing personally, though I'm reeling from being called a Nat the other day.
And that`s asking for trouble
I nearly did a thread asking will Ed be a vote loser in Scotland, because Gordon Brown did well for Labour in Scotland in 2010, I wonder if there would be some loss for Labour in Scotland, particularly with the SNP riding high in the Holyrood pools.
But then I started looking at Scottish sub-samples, and I knew that was a mistake.
The headline of that piece would have been "Could the Nats hand Dave a majority in 2015?"
Alec Salmond would have visited you and smothered you with his flag after that one!
And that's before I added the Scottish Independence, the only route for a Tory majority line.
Martin Boon, director of ICM Research, said: "With the Tories looking buoyant - at least on a domestic front given so many positive noises emerging from various economic sources - their Wisdom showing gives further succour to those who believe that, very soon, Labour leads will turn into Conservative leads."
Madrid pays a heavy Olympic price for Gibraltar. ...
I wonder what Madrid might actually pay? If they for example offered us around GBP1x10^12 and we could essentially pay off our national debt then I might be tempted to persuade the residents.
Spain would then finish up with a useless rock which would of course be paid for by Germany, and we'd end up with a great credit rating plus a few new (and well bribed) immigrants. What's not to like?
Offer all the Gibbers £100,000 and a house in the Falklands and you've got a deal.
Dr. Prasannan, it's true that the second capital of the Empire was founded by the well-known Yorkshireman, Constantine the Great, but I prefer the original name.
City names that are dictated by a founder (or re-founder, as it were) tend to fall by the wayside. Alexandria (well, one of them) and Thessalonica are two rare exceptions. The latter was named by the Successor Cassander, after his wife.
Re Syria: What I rather wonder about is the effectiveness of these chemical attacks. It doesn't make sense that anyone would use such weapons for their (apparent) kill rate, and the only beneficiaries of the 'fact' are the Syrian opposition.
How does a "Wisdom Index Poll" differ from a normal poll?
Unlike conventional polls, which ask voters which party they would choose in a general election, the Wisdom Index asks them to predict the result of such the next general election.
Martin Boon of ICM says
At the 2010 GE this (The Wisdom index) method out performed every other poll. I have shadowed it over time against our tracker polls and it provides an interesting complement to them, in my view.
Asked what Britain’s policy on Syria should be, regardless of any parliamentary vote, just 19 per cent want the UK to join US-led missile strikes. Nearly half (47 per cent) backs the current policy of providing humanitarian aid to Syrian refugees rather than taking military action.
Some 16 per cent take an even more isolationist line - wanting no military action and no more humanitarian aid.
The survey suggests, however that British voters see Syria as a special case. While only 16 per cent believe Britain should “always” intervene militarily against regimes which use chemical weapons, 44 per cent think the country should “sometimes” act and 24 per cent say intervention should “always” happen.
There is also recognition that the House of Commons vote could persuade dictators to use their chemical stockpiles. Just under a quarter (24 per cent) of voters thinks the vote makes it more likely foreign regimes will commit atrocities against their own people, compared to only eight per cent who say they are now less likely to do so.
I was giving a seminar on Parliamentary democracy to a visiting Chinese group today, and one of them asked me politely why both observers and public opinion objected so strongly to Syria while accepting the Libyan intervention without quibble - he didn't seem to be point-scoring, just genuinely curious.
Good question, perhaps. I think it's partly because Assad's image is less alien and demented than Gaddafi - people recognise a dictator, but not a madman (though perhaps we are too easily impressed by western clothing). And maybe also that we could see that intervening in Libya was likely to produce the result most people wanted, whereas firing some missiles at Syria won't do anything much.
Assad's acceptability to a Western audience goes well beyond clothing. He was once an NHS ophthalmologist who is now battling Al Qaeda berserkers . Additionally , the war party's Hague and Kerry make for a gruesome pairing.
"...Abbott is the anti-Cameron. Cameron went looking for votes in the crowded metropolitan middle-class centre, competing with the Labour, Liberal and Green parties for them, embracing cultural liberalism and ignoring not only traditional Tories but also social conservatives and patriotic working-class voters.
Across the English-speaking world, however, these groups of voters have been moving right on economic issues as well as on cultural ones in response to the hostility or contempt of left-wing parties towards whole industries, those who work in them, and their often gritty social attitudes.
This is a chance in a generation to realign the parties. Abbott knows it, and he directs his appeal to the forgotten families and the Howard battlers, emphasising the moral value of work as well as its economic necessity. Mining constituencies obviously respond to such appeals. So do voters in strong Labor areas who support the monarchy."
Re Syria: What I rather wonder about is the effectiveness of these chemical attacks. It doesn't make sense that anyone would use such weapons for their (apparent) kill rate, and the only beneficiaries of the 'fact' are the Syrian opposition.
The belief (and some anecdote) is that Assad couldn't shift the rebels from the area near Damascus even though he was making some progress elsewhere. By using gas he not only kills and maims the opposition but scares all the residents so that they leave the area.
Mr. Dave, alas, that might be right. The problem with the comparison, though, is that Cameron's chief adversary is Miliband. Cameron's too pro-climate change (as it were) and soft on the EU and the like, but Miliband's even worse and so is Clegg.
I agree with Farage (or disagree with him less) on various issues, but his electoral strategy may as well have been designed by Labour.
I seem to recall that the original "Wisdom poll" was an estimate the weight of a cow poll where the average of everyone's guesses ( even though many knew nothing about cows and several estimates proved to be way out ) was shown to be more accurate than experts in the cow industry .
Offer all the Gibbers £100,000 and a house in the Falklands and you've got a deal.
Hey with Germany's money Spain will offer sufficient funds that it's a cool GBP1m to each resident, and a house in Little Venice. In fact with Germany's money Spain will do all sorts of things, but they'll want us to keep quiet.
I seem to recall that the original "Wisdom poll" was an estimate the weight of a cow poll where the average of everyone's guesses ( even though many knew nothing about cows and several estimates proved to be way out ) was shown to be more accurate than experts in the cow industry .
Yup
The opening anecdote relates Francis Galton's surprise that the crowd at a county fair accurately guessed the weight of an ox when their individual guesses were averaged (the average was closer to the ox's true butchered weight than the estimates of most crowd members, and also closer than any of the separate estimates made by cattle experts)
TSE - " imagined slights". There is more posts about "disaster for Ed M" then there is posts attacking Tim....and that is saying something.
Your point the other night complaining about why there was no by-elections thread was a case in point, only on PB.
Are you taking it personally?You are doing a good job hosting the site but Labour supporters can complain when the posts become one-dimensional with the same tweets being posted repeatedly!
I take nothing personally, though I'm reeling from being called a Nat the other day.
And that`s asking for trouble
I nearly did a thread asking will Ed be a vote loser in Scotland, because Gordon Brown did well for Labour in Scotland in 2010, I wonder if there would be some loss for Labour in Scotland, particularly with the SNP riding high in the Holyrood pools.
But then I started looking at Scottish sub-samples, and I knew that was a mistake.
The headline of that piece would have been "Could the Nats hand Dave a majority in 2015?"
If by any chance the Scots vote No, it will be very interesting to see how people in the rest of the UK respond.
It's rather like your spouse having a consultation with the lawyers & deciding s/he's better off staying in the marriage. Does the other spouse ever feel the same again?
"...Abbott is the anti-Cameron. Cameron went looking for votes in the crowded metropolitan middle-class centre, competing with the Labour, Liberal and Green parties for them, embracing cultural liberalism and ignoring not only traditional Tories but also social conservatives and patriotic working-class voters.
Across the English-speaking world, however, these groups of voters have been moving right on economic issues as well as on cultural ones in response to the hostility or contempt of left-wing parties towards whole industries, those who work in them, and their often gritty social attitudes.
This is a chance in a generation to realign the parties. Abbott knows it, and he directs his appeal to the forgotten families and the Howard battlers, emphasising the moral value of work as well as its economic necessity. Mining constituencies obviously respond to such appeals. So do voters in strong Labor areas who support the monarchy."
Re Syria: What I rather wonder about is the effectiveness of these chemical attacks. It doesn't make sense that anyone would use such weapons for their (apparent) kill rate, and the only beneficiaries of the 'fact' are the Syrian opposition.
The belief (and some anecdote) is that Assad couldn't shift the rebels from the area near Damascus even though he was making some progress elsewhere. By using gas he not only kills and maims the opposition but scares all the residents so that they leave the area.
I don't really see that as a sensible plan from Assad's point of view. Something is wrong about this.
TSE - " imagined slights". There is more posts about "disaster for Ed M" then there is posts attacking Tim....and that is saying something.
Your point the other night complaining about why there was no by-elections thread was a case in point, only on PB.
Are you taking it personally?You are doing a good job hosting the site but Labour supporters can complain when the posts become one-dimensional with the same tweets being posted repeatedly!
I take nothing personally, though I'm reeling from being called a Nat the other day.
And that`s asking for trouble
I nearly did a thread asking will Ed be a vote loser in Scotland, because Gordon Brown did well for Labour in Scotland in 2010, I wonder if there would be some loss for Labour in Scotland, particularly with the SNP riding high in the Holyrood pools.
But then I started looking at Scottish sub-samples, and I knew that was a mistake.
The headline of that piece would have been "Could the Nats hand Dave a majority in 2015?"
If by any chance the Scots vote No, it will be very interesting to see how people in the rest of the UK respond.
It's rather like your spouse having a consultation with the lawyers & deciding s/he's better off staying in the marriage. Does the other spouse ever feel the same again?
I can't see us going back to the status quo ante. The Scots will still seek more powers and get them which means the whole issue of English self-rule will be firmly on the agenda. I'd guess, Ed hasn't thought about it, Cameron will waffle and then do everything at the last minute and Clegg will have thought about it and produce some bafflingly complex constitution which sends everyone to sleep. Should fill PB for at least a couple of years.
Assad's acceptability to a Western audience goes well beyond clothing. He was once an NHS ophthalmologist who is now battling Al Qaeda berserkers . Additionally , the war party's Hague and Kerry make for a gruesome pairing.
Didn't know he used to work for the NHS! That'll put some here right off.
Talked to a woman at a conference last week who was the Syrian rep of a British animal welfare charity until they finally gave up a few months ago: she had met the ruling bunch more than once. Her view FWIW (anecdote alert) was that Assad seemed OKish, his wife genuinely nice in an apolitical way, but his brother was said to be a homicidal maniac. Fits with the rumour that the alleged chemical attack was launched by the brother without consultation, but all very speculative.
"...Abbott is the anti-Cameron. Cameron went looking for votes in the crowded metropolitan middle-class centre, competing with the Labour, Liberal and Green parties for them, embracing cultural liberalism and ignoring not only traditional Tories but also social conservatives and patriotic working-class voters.
Across the English-speaking world, however, these groups of voters have been moving right on economic issues as well as on cultural ones in response to the hostility or contempt of left-wing parties towards whole industries, those who work in them, and their often gritty social attitudes.
This is a chance in a generation to realign the parties. Abbott knows it, and he directs his appeal to the forgotten families and the Howard battlers, emphasising the moral value of work as well as its economic necessity. Mining constituencies obviously respond to such appeals. So do voters in strong Labor areas who support the monarchy."
I suspect the Spectator Aus. team will be laughing their balls off at the weeping coming from The Economist's editorial team.
On my winter sojourn in Australia it struck me how gritty, bullish and British the place is - in a kind of sunburnt-UKIP way - outside Sydney. Even the recent immigrants seem to turn into red-faced Brits. "Leave me along and you can do what you like" is the attitude, "but leave me alone with my beer. And stop bludging."
Full Aussie\English breakfast al fresco while looking over the Coral Sea was hard to beat.
The problem with this sort of poliing two years from an election is that it requires a knowledge of voting behaviour that I doubt most people have.
If not they're just asking people to try out their clairvoyant skills. Most people I know don't follow polls so wouldn't have a clue. Perhaps the reason they had some success last time was that they did their Wisdom Polls close to the election when people were tuned into politics and polls?
I'm also curious whether they make their usual allowance for spirals of silence and shy Conservatives and such like? In a way I don't suppose it matters as we seem to be in in Gypsy Rose Lee land either way.
Assad's acceptability to a Western audience goes well beyond clothing. He was once an NHS ophthalmologist who is now battling Al Qaeda berserkers . Additionally , the war party's Hague and Kerry make for a gruesome pairing.
Didn't know he used to work for the NHS! That'll put some here right off.
Talked to a woman at a conference last week who was the Syrian rep of a British animal welfare charity until they finally gave up a few months ago: she had met the ruling bunch more than once. Her view FWIW (anecdote alert) was that Assad seemed OKish, his wife genuinely nice in an apolitical way, but his brother was said to be a homicidal maniac. Fits with the rumour that the alleged chemical attack was launched by the brother without consultation, but all very speculative.
Wonder why the brother didn't take over when Assad père died. Seem to recall that B. Assad was supposed to be quite happy working in West London.
AVLP .. You would take a ferry from Veneto to Istanbul .. brave lad..
The last bunch of Venetians who took a boat to Constantinople sacked the place, the horses in St Marks were part of the booty. It was the Italians wrecked Byzantium, the Turks just picked up the pieces.
I got 12 out of 13. I was guessing half the time. So perhaps I just got lucky.
I also got 12/13, irritatingly the one I got wrong was one of the ones I was most confident about.
It's an interesting quiz - particularly for the results compared to a representative phone survey at the end!! Less than half of Americans can pick [prominent Middle Eastern country] out on a map, or identify that [guy who is often discussed on PB] is a Floridan senator, recognise [prominent woman CEO], have heard what Google Glass is for, or know the swing-dynamics of the current Supreme Court bench. On the other hand they did well at identifying [controversial whistleblower/information freedom exponent/asylum-seeking traitor] from his photo, and know what the Federal Reserve does.
Good old-fashioned Saturday night quiz show fun. Heartily recommended to all PBers.
Assad's acceptability to a Western audience goes well beyond clothing. He was once an NHS ophthalmologist who is now battling Al Qaeda berserkers . Additionally , the war party's Hague and Kerry make for a gruesome pairing.
Didn't know he used to work for the NHS! That'll put some here right off.
Talked to a woman at a conference last week who was the Syrian rep of a British animal welfare charity until they finally gave up a few months ago: she had met the ruling bunch more than once. Her view FWIW (anecdote alert) was that Assad seemed OKish, his wife genuinely nice in an apolitical way, but his brother was said to be a homicidal maniac. Fits with the rumour that the alleged chemical attack was launched by the brother without consultation, but all very speculative.
Wonder why the brother didn't take over when Assad père died. Seem to recall that B. Assad was supposed to be quite happy working in West London.
If by any chance the Scots vote No, it will be very interesting to see how people in the rest of the UK respond.
It's rather like your spouse having a consultation with the lawyers & deciding s/he's better off staying in the marriage. Does the other spouse ever feel the same again?
The parallel doesn't really work with millions of people involved - reasonable to assume that lots of Scots are not in two minds but just think a split would be a terrible idea. My impression is that the English have barely noticed that there's a referendum in progress, and generally don't much care. If the Scots vote no, people will say "fair enough" and move on. I don't see even much appetite for further discussion of more devolution etc. for a while, unless the vote is extremely close.
The problem with this sort of poliing two years from an election is that it requires a knowledge of voting behaviour that I doubt most people have.
If not they're just asking people to try out their clairvoyant skills. Most people I know don't follow polls so wouldn't have a clue. Perhaps the reason they had some success last time was that they did their Wisdom Polls close to the election when people were tuned into politics and polls?
I'm also curious whether they make their usual allowance for spirals of silence and shy Conservatives and such like? In a way I don't suppose it matters as we seem to be in in Gypsy Rose Lee land either way.
Roger, fully agree.I would imagine you would get a better response asking who they think would win the next election. I can quite imagine the vast majority of the public would not know or care what percentage each party is on, with only anoraks and politicos interested. Which then begs the question, who are giving these percentages. If it is the anoraks and politicos, surely they would have a bias. Also, again an assumption, people would take their figures from whatever other polls are telling them with added own political bias added in. As in a PB Hodge would say "I know the polls are saying 5% Labour lead, but actually Ed is crap so it should only be 1%" Whilst Tim may say" I know polls says 5% Labour lead but that's all Tory shite attacking Ed and the vast majority don't even listen, I reckon it is 8%"
Cameron's net approval rating also offers some good news for the Tories, standing at -15 (compared with -18 in the last poll). This represents the biggest lead over Ed Miliband since before the 2012 budget. Miliband is on -31, though his net score has not deteriorated since the last poll.
....
Rather than being hugely exercised by the subject, most voters seemed indifferent. Asked if they would be more or less likely to vote Labour if the party became less reliant on union funding, 65% said it would make no difference, while 18% said it would make them less likely to vote Labour and 17% said it would make them more likely to do so.
Perhaps more significantly, only 17% said Ed Miliband's leadership was a reason why they would vote Labour, while 55% said it was a reason not to do so. Over a quarter (27%) said Labour's handling of the economy was a reason in favour of voting Labour, while 48% said it was a reason not do so.
On Syria, opinion was more evenly balanced, with 29% of voters saying its handling of the Syria issue was a reason to favour Labour while 31% said it was a reason not to back the party.
Assad's acceptability to a Western audience goes well beyond clothing. He was once an NHS ophthalmologist who is now battling Al Qaeda berserkers . Additionally , the war party's Hague and Kerry make for a gruesome pairing.
Didn't know he used to work for the NHS! That'll put some here right off.
Talked to a woman at a conference last week who was the Syrian rep of a British animal welfare charity until they finally gave up a few months ago: she had met the ruling bunch more than once. Her view FWIW (anecdote alert) was that Assad seemed OKish, his wife genuinely nice in an apolitical way, but his brother was said to be a homicidal maniac. Fits with the rumour that the alleged chemical attack was launched by the brother without consultation, but all very speculative.
I'm not sure that you can necessarily tell whether someone is a psychopath, evil or just a bad person from meeting them a few times in a business environment. The very worst of these people learn to hide it well.
If by any chance the Scots vote No, it will be very interesting to see how people in the rest of the UK respond.
It's rather like your spouse having a consultation with the lawyers & deciding s/he's better off staying in the marriage. Does the other spouse ever feel the same again?
The parallel doesn't really work with millions of people involved - reasonable to assume that lots of Scots are not in two minds but just think a split would be a terrible idea. My impression is that the English have barely noticed that there's a referendum in progress, and generally don't much care. If the Scots vote no, people will say "fair enough" and move on. I don't see even much appetite for further discussion of more devolution etc. for a while, unless the vote is extremely close.
Amazing. Have you guys learnt nothing ? The longer this is left to fester the worse it will get until it all blows up at some inconvenient time and with rancour. The nations need some equality between them and leaving England stuck with scots, welsh and Ulster Mps deciding their local laws is just grossly offensive.
I think that's the morning thread sorted, remember according to Mori Miliband is more disliked than the Conservatives
From the Opinium poll
Perhaps more significantly, only 17% said Ed Miliband's leadership was a reason why they would vote Labour, while 55% said it was a reason not to do so. Over a quarter (27%) said Labour's handling of the economy was a reason in favour of voting Labour, while 48% said it was a reason not do so.
Thinking of an untrustworthy Turk, there was a fascinating documentary on BBC4 a few night's back that featured the original Mechanical Turk (the chess-playing clockwork fake, not Amazon's electronic slavedriver).
It's on iplayer now, but for those who want their TV in youtube-sized bite, here are three clips of other automata that I found extraordinary. Bear in mind that the technology is from the 18th century!
Assad's acceptability to a Western audience goes well beyond clothing. He was once an NHS ophthalmologist who is now battling Al Qaeda berserkers . Additionally , the war party's Hague and Kerry make for a gruesome pairing.
Didn't know he used to work for the NHS! That'll put some here right off.
Talked to a woman at a conference last week who was the Syrian rep of a British animal welfare charity until they finally gave up a few months ago: she had met the ruling bunch more than once. Her view FWIW (anecdote alert) was that Assad seemed OKish, his wife genuinely nice in an apolitical way, but his brother was said to be a homicidal maniac. Fits with the rumour that the alleged chemical attack was launched by the brother without consultation, but all very speculative.
Bashar Assad heads a regime that massacred civilian protestors at the start of this whole insurgency. This is the same kind of sh1t that made Western diplomats reckon this guy would cease to be a dictator. Some of the potential alternatives may not be pretty either but Bashar is not the best of a bad bunch, he's just plain bad.
If his regime ends up poisoning the water supply, will that be his brother alone too?
Please not an Ed is crap thread. I've no problem in principle (and might agree) but it brings the morons out in droves and the site becomes unreadable.
Rather than being hugely exercised by the subject, most voters seemed indifferent. Asked if they would be more or less likely to vote Labour if the party became less reliant on union funding, 65% said it would make no difference, while 18% said it would make them less likely to vote Labour and 17% said it would make them more likely to do so.
Perhaps more significantly, only 17% said Ed Miliband's leadership was a reason why they would vote Labour, while 55% said it was a reason not to do so. Over a quarter (27%) said Labour's handling of the economy was a reason in favour of voting Labour, while 48% said it was a reason not do so.
On Syria, opinion was more evenly balanced, with 29% of voters saying its handling of the Syria issue was a reason to favour Labour while 31% said it was a reason not to back the party.
Interesting - and seems to show nobody much bothered by anything, hence the stable polls. But it'd be more interesting to have a filter question "Would you consider voting Labour?" I suppose that, say, SeanT is not vacillating about whether to vote Labour because of doubts about union policy.
Please not an Ed is crap thread. I've no problem in principle (and might agree) but it brings the morons out in droves and the site becomes unreadable.
It'll be part of a wider polling round up, unless Sarah Teather really is quitting now and not at the next General Election.
Though there are rumours that there's a panelbase poll for the Sunday Times on Scottish Independence out tonight as well.
Please not an Ed is crap thread. I've no problem in principle (and might agree) but it brings the morons out in droves and the site becomes unreadable.
Don't worry Roger the blues are too shit scared Ed might go before the GE. I think we need a 10 reasons to love Ed thread.
Time for Ed to offer her a safe seat. I used to think she'd be a future Lib Dem leader. That confidence was dented when she was a minister at education but she's still a very fine politician and it would be a feather for Ed.
Rather than being hugely exercised by the subject, most voters seemed indifferent. Asked if they would be more or less likely to vote Labour if the party became less reliant on union funding, 65% said it would make no difference, while 18% said it would make them less likely to vote Labour and 17% said it would make them more likely to do so.
Perhaps more significantly, only 17% said Ed Miliband's leadership was a reason why they would vote Labour, while 55% said it was a reason not to do so. Over a quarter (27%) said Labour's handling of the economy was a reason in favour of voting Labour, while 48% said it was a reason not do so.
On Syria, opinion was more evenly balanced, with 29% of voters saying its handling of the Syria issue was a reason to favour Labour while 31% said it was a reason not to back the party.
Interesting - and seems to show nobody much bothered by anything, hence the stable polls. But it'd be more interesting to have a filter question "Would you consider voting Labour?" I suppose that, say, SeanT is not vacillating about whether to vote Labour because of doubts about union policy.
In the past you pointed out the weakness of these more likely to vote for questions.
IIRC you said you'd be more likely to vote Tory if Ken Clarke was leader, but only 0.0001% likely
Please not an Ed is crap thread. I've no problem in principle (and might agree) but it brings the morons out in droves and the site becomes unreadable.
It'll be part of a wider polling round up, unless Sarah Teather really is quitting now and not at the next General Election.
Though there are rumours that there's a panelbase poll for the Sunday Times on Scottish Independence out tonight as well.
Do you know when the big Ashcroft scottish poll is released ?
Strange how she has announced it so early and gives a blistering attack on Clegg. Unless she really is going to stand down now and not the GE. If she was going to duck the election, surely she would have announced it about six month beforehand because she will become a political leper in her own party .
Please not an Ed is crap thread. I've no problem in principle (and might agree) but it brings the morons out in droves and the site becomes unreadable.
It'll be part of a wider polling round up, unless Sarah Teather really is quitting now and not at the next General Election.
Though there are rumours that there's a panelbase poll for the Sunday Times on Scottish Independence out tonight as well.
Do you know when the big Ashcroft scottish poll is released ?
Time for Ed to offer her a safe seat. I used to think she'd be a future Lib Dem leader. That confidence was dented when she was a minister at education but she's still a very fine politician and it would be a feather for Ed.
What a great idea!Time to break the Dem out of Lib Dem.
If by any chance the Scots vote No, it will be very interesting to see how people in the rest of the UK respond.
It's rather like your spouse having a consultation with the lawyers & deciding s/he's better off staying in the marriage. Does the other spouse ever feel the same again?
The parallel doesn't really work with millions of people involved - reasonable to assume that lots of Scots are not in two minds but just think a split would be a terrible idea. My impression is that the English have barely noticed that there's a referendum in progress, and generally don't much care. If the Scots vote no, people will say "fair enough" and move on. I don't see even much appetite for further discussion of more devolution etc. for a while, unless the vote is extremely close.
You're probably right, but I think non-Scots may notice once the referendum arrives. And there will be immediate consequences of a Yes vote, with a GE coming up the following year. And it is quite likely that No or Yes, if the GE is noticeably weighted by the Scottish contribution, this will be more widely noted than it has been up to now.
So the effect may be delayed, but it is still a possibility.
When you say "You don't see much appetite for further discussion of more devolution" where are you referring to - Scotland? Or the rest of the UK, or England?
Please not an Ed is crap thread. I've no problem in principle (and might agree) but it brings the morons out in droves and the site becomes unreadable.
It'll be part of a wider polling round up, unless Sarah Teather really is quitting now and not at the next General Election.
Though there are rumours that there's a panelbase poll for the Sunday Times on Scottish Independence out tonight as well.
Do you know when the big Ashcroft scottish poll is released ?
Please not an Ed is crap thread. I've no problem in principle (and might agree) but it brings the morons out in droves and the site becomes unreadable.
It'll be part of a wider polling round up, unless Sarah Teather really is quitting now and not at the next General Election.
Though there are rumours that there's a panelbase poll for the Sunday Times on Scottish Independence out tonight as well.
Do you know when the big Ashcroft scottish poll is released ?
Monday
That should be fun.
According to his Lordship, it will ruffle a few feathers
Amazing. Have you guys learnt nothing ? The longer this is left to fester the worse it will get until it all blows up at some inconvenient time and with rancour. The nations need some equality between them and leaving England stuck with scots, welsh and Ulster Mps deciding their local laws is just grossly offensive.
Nah. The English already decide on 90% of the Parliament. The appetite for an extra English government/parliament is minimal, and using the current parliament but letting some MPs vote on some things and not others would just be a mess, if they produce different majorities (if they didn't, it'd make no difference).
Sarah Teather is to step down as an MP at the next election, senior Liberal Democrat sources have told the BBC.
Bloody Lib Dem, she should quit now, we need a by-election on PB, would be interesting how it would turn out, and to see what those 2010 Lib Dems would do in a Lib/Lab seat
Comments
Spain would then finish up with a useless rock which would of course be paid for by Germany, and we'd end up with a great credit rating plus a few new (and well bribed) immigrants. What's not to like?
Con 31 (+1)
Lab 32 (nc)
LD 16 (nc)
UKIP 12 (nc)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10293777/New-poll-blow-for-Ed-Miliband.html
http://youtu.be/z2rTJc36mlU
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/mirandadevine/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/its_all_happening_in_griffith/
City names that are dictated by a founder (or re-founder, as it were) tend to fall by the wayside. Alexandria (well, one of them) and Thessalonica are two rare exceptions. The latter was named by the Successor Cassander, after his wife.
How does a "Wisdom Index Poll" differ from a normal poll?
Martin Boon of ICM says
At the 2010 GE this (The Wisdom index) method out performed every other poll. I have shadowed it over time against our tracker polls and it provides an interesting complement to them, in my view.
What does Godfrey Bloom say?
http://www.icmresearch.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2012/11/The-power-of-Wisdom.png
Additionally , the war party's Hague and Kerry make for a gruesome pairing.
Across the English-speaking world, however, these groups of voters have been moving right on economic issues as well as on cultural ones in response to the hostility or contempt of left-wing parties towards whole industries, those who work in them, and their often gritty social attitudes.
This is a chance in a generation to realign the parties. Abbott knows it, and he directs his appeal to the forgotten families and the Howard battlers, emphasising the moral value of work as well as its economic necessity. Mining constituencies obviously respond to such appeals. So do voters in strong Labor areas who support the monarchy."
http://www.spectator.co.uk/australia/australia-features/9013891/the-real-deal-3/
More bite.
I agree with Farage (or disagree with him less) on various issues, but his electoral strategy may as well have been designed by Labour.
The opening anecdote relates Francis Galton's surprise that the crowd at a county fair accurately guessed the weight of an ox when their individual guesses were averaged (the average was closer to the ox's true butchered weight than the estimates of most crowd members, and also closer than any of the separate estimates made by cattle experts)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
It's rather like your spouse having a consultation with the lawyers & deciding s/he's better off staying in the marriage. Does the other spouse ever feel the same again?
That means Sheffield will be the hosts of the 2024 Olympics.
*Depends on your definition of Europe.
This is Last Night of the Proms, with a woman conductor.
I mean we've had Yanks, but a woman?
Came to the fore as Principal Conductor of the Bournemouth Symphony Orchestra.
Talked to a woman at a conference last week who was the Syrian rep of a British animal welfare charity until they finally gave up a few months ago: she had met the ruling bunch more than once. Her view FWIW (anecdote alert) was that Assad seemed OKish, his wife genuinely nice in an apolitical way, but his brother was said to be a homicidal maniac. Fits with the rumour that the alleged chemical attack was launched by the brother without consultation, but all very speculative.
Many thanks
The problem with this sort of poliing two years from an election is that it requires a knowledge of voting behaviour that I doubt most people have.
If not they're just asking people to try out their clairvoyant skills. Most people I know don't follow polls so wouldn't have a clue. Perhaps the reason they had some success last time was that they did their Wisdom Polls close to the election when people were tuned into politics and polls?
I'm also curious whether they make their usual allowance for spirals of silence and shy Conservatives and such like? In a way I don't suppose it matters as we seem to be in in Gypsy Rose Lee land either way.
So no innuendoes from me.
I know some of you will find that hard to swallow.
The last bunch of Venetians who took a boat to Constantinople sacked the place, the horses in St Marks were part of the booty. It was the Italians wrecked Byzantium, the Turks just picked up the pieces.
I also got 12/13, irritatingly the one I got wrong was one of the ones I was most confident about.
It's an interesting quiz - particularly for the results compared to a representative phone survey at the end!! Less than half of Americans can pick [prominent Middle Eastern country] out on a map, or identify that [guy who is often discussed on PB] is a Floridan senator, recognise [prominent woman CEO], have heard what Google Glass is for, or know the swing-dynamics of the current Supreme Court bench. On the other hand they did well at identifying [controversial whistleblower/information freedom exponent/asylum-seeking traitor] from his photo, and know what the Federal Reserve does.
Good old-fashioned Saturday night quiz show fun. Heartily recommended to all PBers.
yes it still is, it's just a shame he still thinks he's 20 instead of nearly 60.
He opposes gay marriage, after all. And disputes climate change.
....
Rather than being hugely exercised by the subject, most voters seemed indifferent. Asked if they would be more or less likely to vote Labour if the party became less reliant on union funding, 65% said it would make no difference, while 18% said it would make them less likely to vote Labour and 17% said it would make them more likely to do so.
Perhaps more significantly, only 17% said Ed Miliband's leadership was a reason why they would vote Labour, while 55% said it was a reason not to do so. Over a quarter (27%) said Labour's handling of the economy was a reason in favour of voting Labour, while 48% said it was a reason not do so.
On Syria, opinion was more evenly balanced, with 29% of voters saying its handling of the Syria issue was a reason to favour Labour while 31% said it was a reason not to back the party.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/07/poll-cameron-miliband-syria
And it is not as if the family don't have form:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_Syria
If Tim was here, he'd be screaming PBTory anecdote!
pic.twitter.com/9EqAkykXuE
".....And disputes climate change."
That's because he doesn't claim to be the 'suppository of all wisdom'
Very illuminating!
From the Opinium poll
Perhaps more significantly, only 17% said Ed Miliband's leadership was a reason why they would vote Labour, while 55% said it was a reason not to do so. Over a quarter (27%) said Labour's handling of the economy was a reason in favour of voting Labour, while 48% said it was a reason not do so.
It's on iplayer now, but for those who want their TV in youtube-sized bite, here are three clips of other automata that I found extraordinary. Bear in mind that the technology is from the 18th century!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/i/b0229pbp/?t=14m38s (the robotic singing bird is rather cool)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/i/b0229pbp/?t=29m50s (with neater handwriting than mine)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/i/b0229pbp/?t=42m54s (I watched this bit and gaped, never seen a piece of silver move so fluidly and organically)
If his regime ends up poisoning the water supply, will that be his brother alone too?
"I think that's the morning thread sorted,"
Please not an Ed is crap thread. I've no problem in principle (and might agree) but it brings the morons out in droves and the site becomes unreadable.
Though there are rumours that there's a panelbase poll for the Sunday Times on Scottish Independence out tonight as well.
Time for Ed to offer her a safe seat. I used to think she'd be a future Lib Dem leader. That confidence was dented when she was a minister at education but she's still a very fine politician and it would be a feather for Ed.
IIRC you said you'd be more likely to vote Tory if Ken Clarke was leader, but only 0.0001% likely
So the effect may be delayed, but it is still a possibility.
When you say "You don't see much appetite for further discussion of more devolution" where are you referring to - Scotland? Or the rest of the UK, or England?
Sarah Teather. Hypocrite. Says LibDems don't support social justice! Unlike her, they supported equal marriage. She won't be missed by many.
Sarah Teather. Hypocrite. Says LibDems don't support social justice! Unlike her, they supported equal marriage. She won't be missed by many.
Bloody Lib Dem, she should quit now, we need a by-election on PB, would be interesting how it would turn out, and to see what those 2010 Lib Dems would do in a Lib/Lab seat