politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whose 2020 Vision will the IOC go for?

NickPalmer said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

No figures yet, but the Sunday Times editorial says

Our YouGov poll shows the Labour lead at just four points, even though most voters are not yet fully aware of the improved economic data.

As predicted by ME on HERE. No Syria boost for Labour. Indeed, now the Syrian downsides, such as they are, belong to Miliband.

Who were the lefties soothsaying a big Syrian boost for "Gas The Babies" Ed? Quite a few, as I recall.

Do you? I predicted no effect. Can't remember anyone predicting a big boost. Too much lurid fiction is addling your brain.

I don't think anyone was predicting any big polling changes as a result of the Syria vote. My call was for an improvement in EdM's ratings among Labour voters. Not sure if that's happened; but either way it's of minor interest. Except in very broad terms Syria has past the vast majority of voters by.

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

No figures yet, but the Sunday Times editorial says

Our YouGov poll shows the Labour lead at just four points, even though most voters are not yet fully aware of the improved economic data.

As predicted by ME on HERE. No Syria boost for Labour. Indeed, now the Syrian downsides, such as they are, belong to Miliband.

Who were the lefties soothsaying a big Syrian boost for "Gas The Babies" Ed? Quite a few, as I recall.

Do you? I predicted no effect. Can't remember anyone predicting a big boost. Too much lurid fiction is addling your brain.

I don't think anyone was predicting any big polling changes as a result of the Syria vote. My call was for an improvement in EdM's ratings among Labour voters. Not sure if that's happened; but either way it's of minor interest. Except in very broad terms Syria has past the vast majority of voters by.

Mainly because the majority of the UK public are against attacking Syria:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10293825/No-attack-on-Syria-no-matter-what-say-voters.html

SouthamObserver said:

I don't think anyone was predicting any big polling changes as a result of the Syria vote.

It is very entertaining to look back over that thread. Here is the best I have found so far

Bob__Sykes Posts: 14
August 29
On what looked like being a very bad day for the inept Miliband, it ends in humiliation for the PM.

Cameron's totally f__kd, his authority shot away to buggery and he knows it.

He'll have to go. Perhaps he can take that stupid tit Gove with him.

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

No links to the lead story on the BBC website yet:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24004805

The ICM Wisdom Index continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015; the Labour YouGov vote share remains firmly where it has been throughout the summer.

In other news, it was a beautiful early autumn day here in Warwickshire. The blackberry crop this year is the best I can remember. Fill your bags, buckets and bowls.

Baxtering the Wisdom poll gives LAB short 8 of majority

Yup, mangled words. Lead is what I meant. A hung Parliament with Labour having most seats continues to look the likeliest outcome.

We've all done that

We've done Ed is Crap a few times too. But it still crops up from time to time!

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

No links to the lead story on the BBC website yet:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24004805

The ICM Wisdom Index continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015; the Labour YouGov vote share remains firmly where it has been throughout the summer.

In other news, it was a beautiful early autumn day here in Warwickshire. The blackberry crop this year is the best I can remember. Fill your bags, buckets and bowls.

Baxtering the Wisdom poll gives LAB short 8 of majority

Yup, mangled words. Lead is what I meant. A hung Parliament with Labour having most seats continues to look the likeliest outcome.

We've all done that

We've done Ed is Crap a few times too. But it still crops up from time to time!

I'm firmly in the "They're all crap" camp

This one is prescient

another_richard Posts: 593
August 29
Will we look back on tonight as Cameron's equivalent of Brown bottling the election that never was or Major's ERM exit or Wilson's IMF bailout etc etc ?

No. we look back on it as Ed's equivalent of the election that never was.

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

No links to the lead story on the BBC website yet:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24004805

The ICM Wisdom Index continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015; the Labour YouGov vote share remains firmly where it has been throughout the summer.

In other news, it was a beautiful early autumn day here in Warwickshire. The blackberry crop this year is the best I can remember. Fill your bags, buckets and bowls.

Baxtering the Wisdom poll gives LAB short 8 of majority

Yup, mangled words. Lead is what I meant. A hung Parliament with Labour having most seats continues to look the likeliest outcome.

Yeah, you *mangled* the words: "continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015" when you really meant "a hung parliament with Labour having most seats".

Heck. We understand. It's easily done. It's Saturday night, you've had a couple of drinks, a finger is misplaced, then suddenly you mistype thirty eight letters in a row.

Tedious trolling. Yaaaawwwwwnnnnn.

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

No links to the lead story on the BBC website yet:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24004805

The ICM Wisdom Index continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015; the Labour YouGov vote share remains firmly where it has been throughout the summer.

In other news, it was a beautiful early autumn day here in Warwickshire. The blackberry crop this year is the best I can remember. Fill your bags, buckets and bowls.

Baxtering the Wisdom poll gives LAB short 8 of majority

Yup, mangled words. Lead is what I meant. A hung Parliament with Labour having most seats continues to look the likeliest outcome.

Yeah, you *mangled* the words: "continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015" when you really meant "a hung parliament with Labour having most seats".

Heck. We understand. It's easily done. It's Saturday night, you've had a couple of drinks, a finger is misplaced, then suddenly you mistype thirty eight letters in a row.

Tedious trolling. Yaaaawwwwwnnnnn.

Funny that SO I always thought Sean T got pissed then mistyped 38 posts in a row.

SimonStClare said:

AveryLP – “And when Miliband learned that 5% of the British public consider him decisive, 4% strong, 3% a natural leader and 2% charismatic.”

Meh, could be worse…!

What Ed needs is a battle with the Unions to bring out his strengths.

My Australian election target list is now almost in agreement with ABC News, with 14/15 seats still to be decided:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dERmb2NsbmpUNmlyOHplOTNOTE9iZVE#gid=0

Seats that were being defended by Labor:

Petrie
Reid
Lilley
Capricornia
Lingiari
Eden-Monaro
Parramatta
Dobell
Barton
McEwen
Lyons

Seats that were being defended by the Coalition:

Solomon
Fairfax
Indi

The only discrepancy is that ABC News hasn't called O'Connor yet, which is close between the two Coalition parties, but it's blue on my list since the Coalition obviously wins whatever happens.

I know I'm going to sound elitist and snobbish here, but I thought the people that shop at Aldi didn't vote?

Jane Merrick ‏@janemerrick23 2h

"Aldi Mum" + free childcare to decide election - our @indyonsunday splash pic.twitter.com/yrVdZTChqP @carolineflintmp

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

No links to the lead story on the BBC website yet:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24004805

The ICM Wisdom Index continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015; the Labour YouGov vote share remains firmly where it has been throughout the summer.

In other news, it was a beautiful early autumn day here in Warwickshire. The blackberry crop this year is the best I can remember. Fill your bags, buckets and bowls.

Baxtering the Wisdom poll gives LAB short 8 of majority

Yup, mangled words. Lead is what I meant. A hung Parliament with Labour having most seats continues to look the likeliest outcome.

Yeah, you *mangled* the words: "continues to foretell a healthy Labour majority in 2015" when you really meant "a hung parliament with Labour having most seats".

Heck. We understand. It's easily done. It's Saturday night, you've had a couple of drinks, a finger is misplaced, then suddenly you mistype thirty eight letters in a row.

Tedious trolling. Yaaaawwwwwnnnnn.

You don't even understand the concept of "trolling", you silly man.

That is true. I just don't get why people with a brain do it. That inadequates enjoy it is one thing, but intelligent people doing it when they could argue their corner, that baffles me.

Troll.

AveryLP said:

SimonStClare said:

AveryLP – “And when Miliband learned that 5% of the British public consider him decisive, 4% strong, 3% a natural leader and 2% charismatic.”

Meh, could be worse…!

What Ed needs is a battle with the Unions to bring out his strengths.

Speaking of which, having buggered Ed up the Falkirk – I thought it a little harsh that Unite then threatened not to leave their money on the bedside table.

It’s just not, British…!

TheScreamingEagles said:

I know I'm going to sound elitist and snobbish here, but I thought the people that shop at Aldi didn't vote?

Jane Merrick ‏@janemerrick23 2h

"Aldi Mum" + free childcare to decide election - our @indyonsunday splash pic.twitter.com/yrVdZTChqP @carolineflintmp

Aldi's become kinda trendy.

Carola said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I know I'm going to sound elitist and snobbish here, but I thought the people that shop at Aldi didn't vote?

Jane Merrick ‏@janemerrick23 2h

"Aldi Mum" + free childcare to decide election - our @indyonsunday splash pic.twitter.com/yrVdZTChqP @carolineflintmp

Aldi's become kinda trendy.

You learn something new everyday, since moving back to Sheffield, I've become a Waitrose whore.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Isn't trolling one of those irregular verbs.

I engage in satire, he's unspoofable, you're a troll

Only Pork is unspoofable.

tim said:

GIN1138 said:

So let's see;

Labour sells Assad chemical weapons.

Assad use's chemical weapons against his people.

Labour scuppers any possible military response against what Assad did.

Anybody see a pattern emerging here?

GIN1138 said:

So let's see;

Labour sells Assad chemical weapons.

Assad use's chemical weapons against his people.

Labour scuppers any possible military response against what Assad did.

Anybody see a pattern emerging here?

Dave takes military options off the table after Sam Cams Syrian refugee photoshoots because he couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery and Hollande speaks for him.
Just great.
Same as swearing on his family he wouldn't reorganise the NHS.
And decreeing the boundary changes, incompetent

It's too late, tim.

Time to lay down arms.

Armistice has been declared.

THE Liberal Democrats are drawing up plans to hit the rich by restoring the 50p income tax rate, in addition to introducing a mansion tax and overhauling the way inheritance is taxed.

Anyone earning more than £150,000 would pay the reinstated 50p top rate.

DAVID CAMERON and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, have begun drawing up plans for an assault on Brussels bureaucracy by slashing the number of European commissioners.

According to Whitehall sources, the two leaders have told officials to start work on a blueprint that could see the number of commissioners reduced from 28 to between six and 12.

TheScreamingEagles said:

THE Liberal Democrats are drawing up plans to hit the rich by restoring the 50p income tax rate, in addition to introducing a mansion tax and overhauling the way inheritance is taxed.

Anyone earning more than £150,000 would pay the reinstated 50p top rate.

And how will Lib Dem voters benefit from these policies?

The party that screws their student voters wants to get their support back by promising to squeeze the rich.

Unspoofable.

SouthamObserver said:

That is true. I just don't get why people with a brain do it. That inadequates enjoy it is one thing, but intelligent people doing it when they could argue their corner, that baffles me.

I don't think Sean was trolling. Not in the sense that I'd use the word, anyway. Being a wind-up merchant, certainly.

I've had an unusual period of good fortune on my CiF-trolling lately. That's genuine trolling, but the reason I do it (despite, I hope, being somewhat intelligent) is that I play to win, under a system of rules I construed that balance vindictive enjoyment with intellectual challenge. It's not a partisan thing, I have alter egos who post from all manner of political guises - some more appropriate to attack a thread with, than another (character selection is a vital strategic element of the game).

The basic aim is to write a comment which is as absurd, extreme, or factually inaccurate as possible while still gaining the greatest score (number of comment recommendations is one measure, which works well for populist comments; a more subtle one is number of replies from other users - particularly good for gauging the effectiveness of a deliberately "controversial" comment).

Something like a "goal" is scored if a comment is the top-recommended in a thread, or gets a half-century or even a century of recommendations, despite containing amusingly (to me) daft content . Anything along the lines of an elaborate and malicious conspiracy theory; an earnest call for somebody to be jailed/executed/assassinated; a littering of basic factual inaccuracies; a deliberate side-tracking of the debate; absurd bitterness, racism, sexism or nationalism - or alternatively, absurd accusations of racism, sexism or nationalism.

Not only have I been scoring higher than usual lately while riffing some ridiculous stuff, I've managed a rare double-century, and even got a "Guardian pick"! The skill is keeping in character, writing something which is rhetorically convincing despite falling apart under a moment of analysis, and trying to hit the right balance between vote-seeking or controversy-causing, and lapsing into absurdity or the obvious spoof. This is the reason why I troll, but I have far too much respect for Mike and the PB team to troll on their site at his expense. The Scott Trust is basically asking for it, though. I'd troll the Telegraph too but I regard their BTL denizens as unspoofable.

LD plans per Paywall:

Inheritance tax change - need to live 15 years instead of 7 years to avoid tax on gifts.

CGT changes - not specified but I suspect it'll be their previous plan to reduce CGT exemption from £10,900 right down to £1,500 + all gains to then be taxed as income.

They are basically telling anyone who has any savings whatsoever that they would be mad to vote LD.

How will this go down in southern Con / LD marginals?

Any indication yet on whether the Tories plan to put the abolition of 45p in their manifesto? Presumably not openly?

Grandiose said:

AveryLP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

THE Liberal Democrats are drawing up plans to hit the rich by restoring the 50p income tax rate, in addition to introducing a mansion tax and overhauling the way inheritance is taxed.

Anyone earning more than £150,000 would pay the reinstated 50p top rate.

And how will Lib Dem voters benefit from these policies?

The party that screws their student voters wants to get their support back by promising to squeeze the rich.

Unspoofable.

They need things to give away in a compromise agreement, Avery. With no pesky moral issues.

I see that. Like tim's "trading bets".

But what I don't see is why the Lib Dems aren't promoting policies which directly affect their voter base.

For example, they have successfully "owned" the above inflation rise in personal tax allowance with plausible and sellable claims of taking the low paid out of tax.

Isn't it this seam they should be mining? Rather than storing up trading chips?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Re Royal Mail Privitisation

a poll conducted by YouGov for The Sunday Times has cast doubt on the popularity of the selloff with the general public. An overwhelming 70% of respondents said they were opposed to privatisation. Public opposition could give ministers pause for thought as they weigh up the risks of pressing ahead with the sale.

I don't think people really understand how privatisation would/wouldn't change the service they receive. I make a point of never blaming the public for this, it's something that I hope the government will come out and do. Maybe they could mailshot it!

AveryLP said:

Grandiose said:

AveryLP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

THE Liberal Democrats are drawing up plans to hit the rich by restoring the 50p income tax rate, in addition to introducing a mansion tax and overhauling the way inheritance is taxed.

Anyone earning more than £150,000 would pay the reinstated 50p top rate.

And how will Lib Dem voters benefit from these policies?

The party that screws their student voters wants to get their support back by promising to squeeze the rich.

Unspoofable.

They need things to give away in a compromise agreement, Avery. With no pesky moral issues.

I see that. Like tim's "trading bets".

But what I don't see is why the Lib Dems aren't promoting policies which directly affect their voter base.

For example, they have successfully "owned" the above inflation rise in personal tax allowance with plausible and sellable claims of taking the low paid out of tax.

Isn't it this seam they should be mining? Rather than storing up trading chips?

It does feel a bit like they're fighting someone else's war with the 50p, I agree. If we're at £10,000 PA by the election as planned (? I get confused as to how long these things take to come into effect) where do the LDs go from there?

Grandiose said:

Any indication yet on whether the Tories plan to put the abolition of 45p in their manifesto? Presumably not openly?

How about:

We will set to set rates of income tax for high earners at levels which maximise tax yields to the Treasury and which ensure they continue to contribute a increased share of overall income tax revenues.

AveryLP said:

Grandiose said:

Any indication yet on whether the Tories plan to put the abolition of 45p in their manifesto? Presumably not openly?

How about:

We will set to set rates of income tax for high earners at levels which maximise tax yields to the Treasury and which ensure they continue to contribute a increased share of overall income tax revenues.

You mean, lower it to 40%...?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Re Royal Mail Privitisation

a poll conducted by YouGov for The Sunday Times has cast doubt on the popularity of the selloff with the general public. An overwhelming 70% of respondents said they were opposed to privatisation. Public opposition could give ministers pause for thought as they weigh up the risks of pressing ahead with the sale.

Polls say the public wants rail franchises nationalised.

Can't see the Government doing it though Labour may play it for populist gain in their manifesto.

Equally can't see the government deferring £3 bn plus from RM privatisation now they taken the (long term) hit on pension liabilities.

Who is going to march in the street to stop posties being privatised?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paywall

THE founder of UKIP has launched a Eurosceptic centre-left party to challenge Labour and provide an alternative for those who feel his old party has become “racist” under the leadership of Nigel Farage.

As well as advocating Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, the fledgling party, called New Deal, will pledge to renationalise the railways and scrap the coalition’s “bedroom tax”.

In a symbolic move, Professor Alan Sked, its leader, is considering standing against Ed Miliband in the Labour leader’s Doncaster constituency in the 2015 general election.

It'll be interesting to see if anyone is bankrolling 'New Deal'. Are Labour worried about UKIP cutting into their vote?

@tim

A practical test, tim:

Metric                                   Total Banking           
                               United Kingdom         Rest of EU 

Number of high earners            2,436 (77%)           739 (23%)

Number of high earners            1,000 (64%)           572 (36%)
identified as staff                                              

Total fixed                 784,505,169 (64%)   450,733,574 (36%)
remuneration                                                     

Total variable            2,717,967,709 (76%)   854,660,840 (24%)
remuneration                                                     

Total variable remuner-   1,777,969,114 (79%)   483,059,286 (21%)
-ation deferred in Year                                          

Total discretionary          10,642,642 (50%)    10,839,705 (50%)
pension benefits                                                 

Average Total remuner-        1,437,797            1,766,434     
-ation per Individual                                            

Ratio variable/fixed               346%                190%      
remuneration in %                                                

Ratio variable/total                78%                 65%      
remuneration in %                                                

Ratio deferred/variable             65%                 57%      
remuneration in %                                                

Tell me what tax policy you would adopt to maximise revenues from this strategic advantage enjoyed by the UK?

SimonStClare said:

AveryLP said:

Grandiose said:

Any indication yet on whether the Tories plan to put the abolition of 45p in their manifesto? Presumably not openly?

How about:

We will set to set rates of income tax for high earners at levels which maximise tax yields to the Treasury and which ensure they continue to contribute a increased share of overall income tax revenues.

You mean, lower it to 40%...?

I am not that cynical, Simon!

But setting it at a level which maximises both numbers of taxpayers and yield per taxpayer should be the goal with the proviso that any decrease in tax rate doesn't result in high earners contributing a smaller proportion of overall tax revenues.

And if I was Chancellor I would want pretty robust cost/benefit evidence in place before making any change.

AveryLP said:

But setting it at a level which maximises both numbers of taxpayers and yield per taxpayer should be the goal with the proviso that any decrease in tax rate doesn't result in high earners contributing a smaller proportion of overall tax revenues.

And if I was Chancellor I would want pretty robust cost/benefit evidence in place before making any change.

Surely the answer has to be a reduction in the top rate to 40% combined with a further reduction in allowances - eg further reduce relief for pension contributions or restrict that relief to the basic rate.

A side issue is going to be the need to restore the PA to people above £100k. If that isn't done the anomaly between £100k and £120k of an effective rate of 60% is just going to become even more absurd.

SeanT said:

MyBurningEars said:

SouthamObserver said:

That is true. I just don't get why people with a brain do it. That inadequates enjoy it is one thing, but intelligent people doing it when they could argue their corner, that baffles me.

I don't think Sean was trolling. Not in the sense that I'd use the word, anyway. Being a wind-up merchant, certainly.

I've had an unusual period of good fortune on my CiF-trolling lately. That's genuine trolling, but the reason I do it (despite, I hope, being somewhat intelligent) is that I play to win, under a system of rules I construed that balance vindictive enjoyment with intellectual challenge. It's not a partisan thing, I have alter egos who post from all manner of political guises - some more appropriate to attack a thread with, than another (character selection is a vital strategic element of the game).


Not only have I been scoring higher than usual lately while riffing some ridiculous stuff, I've managed a rare double-century, and even got a "Guardian pick"! The skill is keeping in character, writing something which is rhetorically convincing despite falling apart under a moment of analysis, and trying to hit the right balance between vote-seeking or controversy-causing, and lapsing into absurdity or the obvious spoof. This is the reason why I troll, but I have far too much respect for Mike and the PB team to troll on their site at his expense. The Scott Trust is basically asking for it, though. I'd troll the Telegraph too but I regard their BTL denizens as unspoofable.

Yeah, whatevs, I i did all that years ago and wrote about it, YAWWWWWN.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100225278/revealed-how-i-posed-as-a-left-wing-nutjob-on-the-guardians-comment-is-free-and-got-away-with-it/

Two right-wingers who troll CiF on just this one thread. Are there any actual genuine commenters there or is it just right-wing trolls trolling each other?

@MikeL

I really don't know the answer to what rate is optimal.

What I would say is, at this level of income, a very large proportion of tax paid will be elective. And it is this discretionary nature of payment which argues for a government knowing as much as possible about its clients.

Take the stats on high earning bankers which I reposted downthread. Here is a group of 2,500 individuals who earn £3.5 billion in a single year half of which is paid that year as taxable income (with prior year's deferred bonuses of, say, £1.5 bn to tax in addition).

And this group represents a 'market share' of such high earners of some 75% of the whole of the EU.

If you were a private business chasing that market, you would invest resource into researching and understanding your client base, their attitudes and all factors which contribute to their presence in the UK and their willingness and ability to pay tax, elective or otherwise.

You would want to know as much as possible about the opportunities to increase the client base as well the existence of competitive threats etc. Your staff would know better what motivates, say, a hedge fund executive and firm, to locate and pay tax in the UK than the hedgie himself.

You would have plans to encourage relocation to the UK and to make tax payment as convenient and less stressful as possible.

You would also want to be able to place the revenue collection and growth business in the context of an overall business plan. For example, there is no point encouraging hedge funds to locate in the UK simply for their tax yield: economic risk and social impact would need to be assessed as well.

You would also have researched the task of optimising yields. Your people would be able to tell you exactly what rates would yield what revenues almost down to each individual!

I am sure that HMRC have made some steps towards this type of operation but I would also expect it to fall far short of any equivalent operation in, say, an asset management company chasing the same client base.

OK, mild rant over.

On the tax structure and PA banding anomalies, this would require tax reform which has had to be a lower priority for the Coalition in current economic circumstances than tax yield maximisation. As the fiscal outlook recovers then the opportunity to reform will arise.

Let's hope Osborne has the appetite for such reform and that he is given the opportunity to pursue it in a second term!

"Two right-wingers who troll CiF on just this one thread. Are there any actual genuine commenters there or is it just right-wing trolls trolling each other?"

@edmundintokyo I say this very tongue in cheek, but how long have you been a regular poster on PB? We have over the years had some classic posters who trolled this site, some far more successful than others. IIRC, the Professor was so obvious that they crashed and burned every time, but we had another brilliant troll that appeared periodically and used to catch a few new posters out every time. I can't remember the name tag as they have not posted for a long time, but I am sure it was Adrian someone or other.

MyBurningEars said:

edmundintokyo said:

Two right-wingers who troll CiF on just this one thread. Are there any actual genuine commenters there or is it just right-wing trolls trolling each other?

I found to my surprise that my parody accounts on CiF can get away with almost anything, so long as you don't ad hom the writer of the article. Yet when I used CiF to comment "properly", some very innocuous stuff got moderated, which made me far less likely to engage seriously. I basically took it as an invitation to troll. Because of this contrast, I'm even more extremely impressed with the way Mike and the team handle the moderation on PB.

Have I become an honorary PB right-winger these days? That's a worrying description, I'd probably see myself as a pluralist before anything else. (I think that's a politer way of putting TSE's "I think you're all crap", just appended by "but in the best light, I can see where you're coming from.")

I don't suppose they care whether they've got a comment section full of trolls or not as long as they're seeing the ads...

Oz senate system in chaos.

The voting system in the senate in Oz is not optional. 98% vote "1" above the line instead of numbering all the boxes below the line. As about 100 boxes to fill in, in some states it makes sense.

There is confusion with the Liberal Democrats standing in Oz, as non anoraks assumed they were the Liberals, but they are a gun toting group with limited support. They did not advertise, relying on confusion.
Sadly in NSW they got the first spot on the ticket, the premium position for donkey vote and those with no knowledge, so almost 9% voted for them instead of Liberals thinking they were voting liberal. they got elected!

Almost as bad, parties with no support got elected on preferences. the Motoring enthusiasts party, with just 0.52% of the vote, picked up a seat after preferences from 30 plus parties to them. Newly formed before election, they hold balance of power, and main policy is to be able to drive 4wd's through national parks.

In Perth, WA, a sporting party got all the preferences and amazingly got a seat, they stand for everyone doing exercise.
The main parties who had all the votes were not preferenced by each other and lost out.

The balance of power is held by people who nobody voted for.
So a change to the system is needed at some stage, not that the newbies in the Senate will vote for change as it would remove them next time!
The real liberals just scraped a seat after preferences against them in NSW and ACT, with no Liberal Democrat votes these would have been a formality.

Had those 2 seats not been won then Greens/Labour would have controlled senate and stopped the governments new legislation!

Democracy in action, but copying the Oz system where everyone is forced to vote and the position on a ballot is crucial is not to be recommended.

Full YouGov poll:

Latest YouGov/Sunday Times results 6th September - Con 34%, Lab 38%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%; APP -28

YG

Well/badly:
DC: -15 (-19)
EdM: -46(-39)
NC: -53(-47)
Coalition: -17(-20)

Your financial situation in next 12 months;
Better:16(0)
Worse: 41(-2)
Same: 39(+3)

Response to Syria situation
Well/badly:
DC:41/45
EdM; 27/45

Thinking about Ed Miliband's leadership of the
Labour party, do you think he...
Has been too close to the Trade Unions, too
distant, or has got the balance about right?

Too close: 31(-6)
Too distant:18(+6)
Right:18(-2)
DK: 34(+3)

And do you think Ed Miliband is right or wrong to
try and reduce Labour's links with the Unions?
Right:38(-6)
Wrong:18(+5)
DK:24(+3)

Ed Miliband has insisted he will press ahead with changes to Labour's relationship with the trade unions.

The Labour leader says he wants to "build a party truly rooted in the lives of all working people".

Earlier, his deputy Harriet Harman said Mr Miliband was right not to apologise to the Unite union.

It came after an internal report cleared the union of trying to rig the selection of Karie Murphy as a Labour election candidate in Falkirk

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24004805

WelshJones said:

It would appear that the closer we get to nation-wide elections (EU, GE) the smaller Labour's lead.

I echo JackW's view - Ed Milliband will never be PM: can you SERIOUSLY see him at a G20 Summit standing up for anything but the other delegates when they entered the room?

An outstanding first post my fine celtic friend.

Welcome I say, welcome.