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  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    John_M said:

    It's too early to tell, just 4 days after the result.

    I think it's also important to differentiate between tariff-free access to the Single Market and what the normal non-EU Johnny Foreigner enjoys. Countries do sell into Europe without either an FTA or EU membership.
    Quite so, Mr. M. One needs only look round the products in one's own home to see that being a member of the Single Market is no bar to selling into it. However, some on here seem to be fixated by it.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,985

    She's still Labour, right?
    As Nick Palmer was saying, Stuart is traditional Labour left in everything apart from EU membership and fox hunting. Although the Tory hard-right have adopted her as a pet, they'd probably harrumph mightily if they bothered to discover her views on anything else.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,697
    John_M said:

    Don't forget the smattering of other-worldy Greens who think humanity is a blight on the planet.
    Can't argue with that.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,688
    Boris has already won two Mayoral elections in heavily Labour-leaning London (2008, 2012), and has just won a national Referendum.

    What's not to like?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,191

    I'd imagine that's the calculation. But we weren't meant to win the referendum either.
    And she is just so dull. Humour is a very important weapon to a politician. Both Cameron and Boris use it very effectively in the House of Commons and elsewhere. Theresa, not so much.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    DavidL said:

    Osborne remains the most talented politician in the country. Any leader would want not only access to his skills, experience and judgement but also to have him in the tent rather than out of it.

    I can see the argument for reducing the number of departments but DfID should, for me, be given the specific target of reducing immigration by funding in theatre support, such as we currently have around Syria, wherever possible.
    I'd agree re DfiD.

    I'm very ambivalent about Osborne. He's been good on sly tactics and awful on execution far too many times.

    That's why I suggested we give him an ambassadorial role - he'd be good at that/keep him busy and away from Westminster.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    welshowl said:

    Depends what happens when everybody's had their holidays in July/August and they get down to serious talking behind closed doors and not grandstanding for photo ops as they all are now.

    Freedom of movement I would hope could be watered down to "freedom to work/stay if you've got a job offer and or could support yourself in country X to say 80% of national average wage. No benefits other than health and anything contributory like pension". I'd vote for that with free trade in a flash. Question is how grandstanding are all parties going to be about what "freedom of movement" can actually mean.

    I think it was Cameron's complete failure to get anything approaching this that dis for him. At present the Continentals are probably feeling too sore to look at watering down much but we'll see in a bit where we are all at. At least the negotiation will be taken seriously this time and not be an "essay crisis".
    There's a very tricky political calculation to be performed. There's obviously a faction that would like to punish the UK in order to quell any further trouble. The issue is that if this is combined with the standard rhetoric of 'More Europe', they're simply storing up even more trouble further down the line. Denying the UK a referendum over Lisbon was a contributory factor to the UK's decision for Brexit.

    Unsurprisingly, we've tended to dwell on the issues that Brexit raises for us as a country. However, I do think the European exam question is much, much harder and has the potential to do Europe even greater harm in the future.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    DavidL said:

    Osborne remains the most talented politician in the country. Any leader would want not only access to his skills, experience and judgement but also to have him in the tent rather than out of it.

    I can see the argument for reducing the number of departments but DfID should, for me, be given the specific target of reducing immigration by funding in theatre support, such as we currently have around Syria, wherever possible.
    Osborne is the most talented politician in the country? On what basis do you come to that judgement, Mr. L? He has just lost the most important election in the country for forty years.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    SeanT said:

    I agree with the smaller point. He should have taken the opportunity to be magnanimous, with just tiny hints of gloating, and some better jokes. Would have been more annoying for the Federalists.

    Instead he was boorish and gave them a chance to be boorish back, making the European Parliament look as ridiculous as ever. Perhaps that was Farage's subtle, underlying intention..
    He does subtle?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,985
    edited June 2016

    Boris has already won two Mayoral elections in heavily Labour-leaning London (2008, 2012), and has just won a national Referendum.

    What's not to like?

    I suspect Boris has lost most, if not all, of that Labour supporter goodwill - he now seems to be an instrument of the Tory hard-right.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    SeanT said:

    I realised this morning it is very likely to be May.

    Why?

    1. Emotions. A needy, anxious nation will want a sensible, comforting mother figure. May wins.

    2. Economics. It is likely that peak post-Brexit chaos will be unfurling as the vote is held. Holidaymakers will be coming home with forex sticker shock. Home owners will be staring in dismay at house prices. Unemployment might be edging up, or shooting up. A recession is very possible.

    In those probable circumstances Boris will get the blame, he just will (especially as he has written articles predicting that there would be NO Brexit chaos)

    May wins.

    The only means by which he can win is if he is right, the markets calm down, recession is averted, London banks don't start moving to the EU. But I don't see how that can happen, because no one is triggering Article 50 until October earliest. So the economic uncertainty is BOUND to continue.

    May wins.

    Oh bollocks, I'm green on May, but this has given me pause for thought.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    matt said:

    He does subtle?
    Subtle is when he does 4 pints, 2 bottles of wine and two whiskeys as part of a light lunch...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    stjohn said:

    Is this a fair summary of where we are at from a slow learner - me!

    1. A majority of those who purport to understand the economics of the situation feel that it would be a disaster for the UK economy to end up without access to the Single Market. In particular because of the importance of the SM to our services industry which is the most successful and key part of our economy.

    2. To maintain access to the single market means we have to maintain agreement to freedom of movement of EU people and that EU laws remain supreme.

    So no control over immigration and no regaining of sovereignty if we maintain access to the Single Market. Unless we manage to carve out some sort of "special deal"? Which appears extremely unlikely to be achievable.

    Broadly that's right, except that we'd still get some regaining of sovereignty (environment, agriculture, fisheries, for example).
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    DavidL said:

    I don't think Gisela will leave Labour but if she wanted a job on the negotiating team for Europe it is surely hers.
    A GOAT, would she want to do that from the Lords as a cross bencher or on-loan from Labour? Hoey deserves credit too - perhaps dealing with the relationship with Ireland during Brexit negotiations?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    As Nick Palmer was saying, Stuart is traditional Labour left in everything apart from EU membership and fox hunting. Although the Tory hard-right have adopted her as a pet, they'd probably harrumph mightily if they bothered to discover her views on anything else.
    Come now, I don't just endorse someone without checking their history. She's a standard authoritarian Blairite. If anything, she's a bit right wing for me. ID cards indeed. She also voted against investigating the Iraq war.

    Other than that, she's palatable. I don't expect her to cross the floor, but she might relish getting stuck into the nuts and bolts of Brexit.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Dearie Me.

    John McTernan on Sky wants David Miliband to lead Labour "to bring back some stardust" :open_mouth:
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    I suspect Boris has lost most, if not all, of that Labour supporter goodwill - he now seems to be an instrument of the Tory hard-right.
    Boris was prominent in the leave campaign..A lot of labour voters voted leave.. Ergo they will vote for Boris
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Redwood is crap at presentation, which has damaged his career. But he's extremely strong on economics. Therefore he shouldn't be Chancellor, but is criminally wasted without a supporting role. Osborne is an economic pygmie by comparison.
    Asking Mervyn to help out wouldn't go amiss either.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    SeanT said:

    I agree. That's what they will have to do, economically. The pressure they will now be under, from their donors and backers, will be enormous: save the single market, accept Free Movement, fuck Hartlepool. It's a brave Tory PM who says Boo to the City. I can't think of any Tory PM who has ever done it.

    But how the F do they sell this monumental U-turn to the British people?

    This is another reason May will probably win. Boris is too far down the road, he can't turn back (though he tried in that now-disowned Telegraph piece)

    May can sound more authentic, as she was Tepid Remain.
    The Tories don't need the Hartlepool voters, they are Labour's problem. Harsh as that sounds, @SouthamObserver was absolutely correct that now we've got the leave vote the WWC voters will go back to being ignored by the mainstream parties. This presents a much bigger problem for Labour than for the Tories though
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited June 2016
    @John-M

    Yes, the central issue to me has been an inability to take "the people(s)" along on the journey for decades, so they've done it by stealth. The Lisbon Treaty (ex Constitution or the "tidying up exercise" - how I took my revenge last Thursday for that pitiful sneering phrase) is exhibit one for the prosecution. Essentially they've not trusted the people(s) to vote for the "Project" so they have had to be got round. What a miserable prospectus. And yet and yet, if it had been openly articulated and set out and with transparent aims with dates etc and put to a a Europe wide vote I was not necessarily utterly against per se. However, they didn't so personally I felt I was put into a place last Thursday by decades of obfuscation where I had a once in a lifetime decision to meekly go along or rage against the dying light. So I raged.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    TOPPING said:

    It's bouncing off its 18-mth lows.

    Are the facts.
    Wow 18 months!!!. So not exactly the collapse we were promised then.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Broadly that's right, except that we'd still get some regaining of sovereignty (environment, agriculture, fisheries, for example).
    Justice and trade as well, Richard.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    JonathanD said:


    A large part of the 'world beating down our door to do business here' was based on our access to the European market of 500million people. If the EU suddenly goes bad then its going to have a huge impact on us. Better to have stayed in and worked to reform it and grown our marketplace.

    A dangerous pipe dream. It was never going to be reformed in away that would have suited or helped us. We had 40 years to do that and failed utterly.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,688

    NEW THREAD

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    World at One – different attitudes in Europe wrt Brexit. Measured and reasonable arguments from Finland's deputy Prime Minister Timo Soini (who is a Millwall fan!). Whereas German CDU acolyte of Merkel – didn't catch his name – expressing dismissive attitude to British interests and obsessing over Farage.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    G - "Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, has vowed to fight the next general election, “which could be very soon”, on a pledge to stop Brexit.

    Voters deserve the chance to rethink their decision, now the EU debate has moved from the abstract to the visceral, threatening jobs and living standards, he said on a visit to Brussels."


    He's alive?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Wow 18 months!!!. So not exactly the collapse we were promised then.
    People who are saying this is as bad as 2008 need to get their heads examined, in 2008 Sterling was almost at parity with EUR and around the same level as now with USD but the US had lower interest rates and had already ramped up QE while the BoE were jyst getting started.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    MaxPB said:

    Justice and trade as well, Richard.
    And the only laws that would still apply are those related to the single market - less than 10%.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    PlatoSaid said:

    Asking Mervyn to help out wouldn't go amiss either.
    Ah the Brexpert - different from expert cos he's older and out of date but he's a 'Leaver'.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Nothing cheers her up more than the break up (and breakdown) of the United Kingdom. Not!
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Subtle is when he does 4 pints, 2 bottles of wine and two whiskeys as part of a light lunch...
    Sounds about par for the course for some in the City that I have worked with (though they probably would have gone for half a bottle of Port rather than the whiskey). However, they would not have called it a light lunch, just lunch.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    MaxPB said:

    Isn't this the Labour nightmare scenario? Tories are generally more comfortable with migration than WWC Labour or UKIP, they keep it in some form with a few token changes to keep our single market membership, this satisfies most Con voters leave or remain. Labour are left either supporting this or arguing for continued EU membership and ignoring the vote to leave. Around 40% of Labour voters were in the leave camp which is 12% on 2015 GE shares, how much of that could UKIP hoover up?
    Posh, upper middle-class Tories are fine with immigration much like metropolitan Labour, lower middle-class class Tories in the likes of Essex, the Kent coast and Lincolnshire are as uncomfortable with it as wwc Labour
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