politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The fight to be next CON leader and PM: The race begins

Alanbrooke said:

TOPPING said:

CD13 said:

I see the Remainers are still on Anger and Denial.

It could be worse, lads, you could be living in an EU country and waiting for the sword of Damocles to finally descend.

Nah. We were a sovereign nation then and are a sovereign nation now. Remainers never lacked confidence in our country, or our own primacy.

All we are doing is pointing out the bleedin' obvious that 89.757% of claims made by Brexiteers were and are sheer unadulterated bullshit. And illogical sheer unadulterated bullshit at that.

and yet it was more convinving than Remain it seems.

why was that ?

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

We've asked about Corbyn's position being untenable. How is it that Rosie Winterton is still in place. The coup was apparently run from within the whip's office, three-quarters of the Shadow Cabinet have left, virtually the entire PLP is in revolt and about to no confidence the leader: doesn't that undermine her position at all?

She might be the one organising it. Or have I been watching too much House of Cards

John_N4 said:

I've just read Boris Johnson's manifesto from yesterday. He says after Brexit there will continue to be free trade and access to the EU single market. Then he says there will be a points-based immigration policy. Well you can't have both, because the single market equals the four freedoms. You simply cannot have both unless you change the EU's policy in a way that one single country that is about to leave the EU will not possibly be able to.

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

FTSE 250 down over 6% on the day now. That's a 14% fall in the last two trading days.

Former Chairman of the Bank of England says you don't know anything.

Down by 6.6% on the day now. That's a 1,000 point fall.

TOPPING said:

Alanbrooke said:

TOPPING said:

CD13 said:

I see the Remainers are still on Anger and Denial.

It could be worse, lads, you could be living in an EU country and waiting for the sword of Damocles to finally descend.

Nah. We were a sovereign nation then and are a sovereign nation now. Remainers never lacked confidence in our country, or our own primacy.

All we are doing is pointing out the bleedin' obvious that 89.757% of claims made by Brexiteers were and are sheer unadulterated bullshit. And illogical sheer unadulterated bullshit at that.

and yet it was more convinving than Remain it seems.

why was that ?

Look at Kelvin's view today.

Same here. When I went into the polling booth and I saw that option "Leave the EU.." it was a hugely powerful emotional pull. Just by ticking that little box I could indeed "take control", no more more of the same, I would be voting to make a difference.

Apart from very very few Brexiteers, however, I would hazard (on no evidence whatsoever) that the vast majority stopped at that. They didn't think further than that emotional, take control, f&ck you response. They were told that the EU controlled their lives, passed laws, were responsible for the ex-mining villages in Wales, etc. And thought they would stick it to The Man.

GIN1138 said:

YellowSubmarine said:

The only extremely slim chance we have is the government never quite getting round to invoking Article 50. That needs things to g wrong very, very quickly and enough regrexiters concluding by pretending not to notice.

Fingers crossed for economic meltdown, eh?

SeanT said:

RodCrosby said:

Lammy ranting on Sky: "Referendum needs 2/3rds majority. We can't have rule by the mob! I'll never vote for Brexit in the HoC"

But if the economic meltdown continues then there will be a lot of people, an awful lot, who would quite like parliament to overrule the people.

I presume we have all seen Kelvin MacKenzie's public expression of Bremorse in the Sun?

As I said yesterday, the markets will decide this, and right now the markets are going mental. A bigger loss than Lehmans. We have destabilised not only ourselves, but other countries, some of which were perilously close to chaos already.

I also suggested that we were entering a dynamic, chaotic state yesterday - that we had set off an entirely unpredictable chain reaction. And I was pooh-poohed by some.

Maybe the fiend Osborne was right and we have put a bomb under everything. Eeeesh.

How do we unclusterfuck this?

Wulfrun_Phil said:

In addition there's the fact that the EU and particularly the Germans need access to the UK single market much more than we need continued access to theirs, thanks to the UK trade deficit with the EU. So such a deal is perfectly possible, and the UK has a very strong negotiating hand to secure one.

GIN1138 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

FTSE 250 down over 6% on the day now. That's a 14% fall in the last two trading days.

Former Chairman of the Bank of England says you don't know anything.

Down by 6.6% on the day now. That's a 1,000 point fall.

How's the FTSE 100 looking (not heard much about that?)

rottenborough said:

Any prime minister will need parliamentary approval to trigger article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and initiate the UK’s exit from the European Union, according to a report by constitutional lawyers. [Guardian]

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: Starmer's gone now. https://t.co/FMPRvBdC9l

SouthamObserver said:

Got to say that I am loving this taking back control business.

The average stock price fall for the UK's publicly-quoted house builders is now 32%.

Andrew said:

rottenborough said:

Any prime minister will need parliamentary approval to trigger article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and initiate the UK’s exit from the European Union, according to a report by constitutional lawyers. [Guardian]

Yep, seen it - it's pure wish and a prayer stuff. See the Lisbon treaty Article50:

"1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention
"

That wish is conveyed by the state's representative at the European Council (ie the PM). States with more fixed written restrictions on constitutional alterations would put constraints via 1 above, but in the UK - nope.

Certainly Parliament could have fun refusing to repeal the EC act 1972 etc, but ultimately, if the EU says you're out, you're out.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

John_N4 said:

I've just read Boris Johnson's manifesto from yesterday. He says after Brexit there will continue to be free trade and access to the EU single market. Then he says there will be a points-based immigration policy. Well you can't have both, because the single market equals the four freedoms. You simply cannot have both unless you change the EU's policy in a way that one single country that is about to leave the EU will not possibly be able to.

The European Commission is quite willing to offer free trade and access to the EU single market, to countries outside of the EU that would still retain control over their borders. They are trying their utmost to conclude such a deal with another trading partner at the moment. It's called TTIP. What Johnson is essentially seeking is something akin to that, but without all the extra add-ons sought by the US that have been a source of controversy within TTIP. In addition there's the fact that the EU and particularly the Germans need access to the UK single market much more than we need continued access to theirs, thanks to the UK trade deficit with the EU. So such a deal is perfectly possible, and the UK has a very strong negotiating hand to secure one.

John_N4 said:

Alanbrooke said:

TOPPING said:

CD13 said:

I see the Remainers are still on Anger and Denial.

It could be worse, lads, you could be living in an EU country and waiting for the sword of Damocles to finally descend.

Nah. We were a sovereign nation then and are a sovereign nation now. Remainers never lacked confidence in our country, or our own primacy.

All we are doing is pointing out the bleedin' obvious that 89.757% of claims made by Brexiteers were and are sheer unadulterated bullshit. And illogical sheer unadulterated bullshit at that.

and yet it was more convincing than Remain it seems.

why was that ?

Because the Sun and the queen backed Leave?
The last time the Sun backed a loser in a British GE or referendum was in 1974.

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Borough, indeed, Parliament is sovereign and it would be entirely legal for the Commons to either vote against the referendum result or collectively decide to ignore it.

However, that would replace the current collection of crises with a new one.

Crisis consolidation, as it were.

Sounds to me like the right path to take. Not to ignore it but to say "Thanks for the advice, but on consideration we are deciding to instruct the government to keep Britain in the EU." The question is how to package it. They need some changed circumstance or other.

Perhaps someone could show Boris where his sword is?

Alistair said:

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

Can any Leaver tell me how this particular circle is going to be squared?

There will be Controls on Immigration
There will be an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland

Rights of residence != ability to cross border without your passport

Canadians do not require passports to enter the US, but they're not allowed to just cross the border and get a job in the nearest diner.

So we will check passports from Norther Ireland to the Mainland UK then?

I'm just trying to work out how we stop illegal immigrants coming from Dublin across the open border to NI and then onto the UK.

You know, how we Control Immigration.

SimonStClare said:

David Cameron is giving his Commons statement on the referendum.

He welcomes the new MP for Tooting, who has just been sworn in and advises her to keep her mobile phone on. She could be in the shadow cabinet by the end of the day, he jokes.

rcs1000 said:

GIN1138 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

FTSE 250 down over 6% on the day now. That's a 14% fall in the last two trading days.

Former Chairman of the Bank of England says you don't know anything.

Down by 6.6% on the day now. That's a 1,000 point fall.

How's the FTSE 100 looking (not heard much about that?)

That's down 2.4%, plus Sterling is down another 3% today. It's lost more than 5% in dollar terms today.

SeanT said:

RodCrosby said:

Lammy ranting on Sky: "Referendum needs 2/3rds majority. We can't have rule by the mob! I'll never vote for Brexit in the HoC"

But if the economic meltdown continues then there will be a lot of people, an awful lot, who would quite like parliament to overrule the people.

I presume we have all seen Kelvin MacKenzie's public expression of Bremorse in the Sun?

As I said yesterday, the markets will decide this, and right now the markets are going mental. A bigger loss than Lehmans. We have destabilised not only ourselves, but other countries, some of which were perilously close to chaos already.

I also suggested that we were entering a dynamic, chaotic state yesterday - that we had set off an entirely unpredictable chain reaction. And I was pooh-poohed by some.

Maybe the fiend Osborne was right and we have put a bomb under everything. Eeeesh.

How do we unclusterfuck this?

SouthamObserver said:

Got to say that I am loving this taking back control business.

The average stock price fall for the UK's publicly-quoted house builders is now 32%.

rottenborough said:

Corbyn up. Silence. Followed by laughter.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

rcs1000 said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

In addition there's the fact that the EU and particularly the Germans need access to the UK single market much more than we need continued access to theirs, thanks to the UK trade deficit with the EU. So such a deal is perfectly possible, and the UK has a very strong negotiating hand to secure one.

I'm sorry, but exports to the UK are 3% of EU GDP against close to 10% for UK exports to the EU.

It would be just as disastrous for us to lose access to the EU as vice-versa.

That's a false comparison. You could by the same token say that exports from the rest of the world to the UK are only (say) 1% of the ROW GDP compared to (say) close to 20% for UK exports to the ROW. That wouldn't mean that either country had any less interest in maintaining the volume of trade.

What matters is that you compare the gross amount in £s (or Euros if you must). And the figures are that for every £2 we export to the EU, they export £3 to us. That is the comparison that matters, and it is why the EU has much more of a stake in maintaining the present volume of trade with the UK than.vice versa.

Jobabob said:

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: Starmer's gone now. https://t.co/FMPRvBdC9l

Charlie Falconer said to be "mooting departure".

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jobabob said:

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: Starmer's gone now. https://t.co/FMPRvBdC9l

Charlie Falconer said to be "mooting departure".

Falconer went yesterday.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jobabob said:

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: Starmer's gone now. https://t.co/FMPRvBdC9l

Charlie Falconer said to be "mooting departure".

Falconer went yesterday.

It's Jobabob's joke

bigjohnowls said:

Jeremy Corbyn MP ‏@jeremycorbyn 17h17 hours ago
Those wanting to change Labour's leadership will have to stand in a democratic election in which I'll be a candidate

Can someone tell me why the splitters dont want to do this.


It can only be because they want to impose a new leader without members getting a say IMO

Jonathan said:

Scott_P said:

Apparently Boris to cowardly too appear in the HoC

Seriously! Boris didn't show up. That's terrible.

williamglenn said:

Corbyn in an implicit call for Cameron to invoke Article 50 tomorrow...

Jonathan said:

Scott_P said:

Apparently Boris to cowardly too appear in the HoC

Seriously! Boris didn't show up. That's terrible.

Bob__Sykes said:

SeanT said:

RodCrosby said:

Lammy ranting on Sky: "Referendum needs 2/3rds majority. We can't have rule by the mob! I'll never vote for Brexit in the HoC"

But if the economic meltdown continues then there will be a lot of people, an awful lot, who would quite like parliament to overrule the people.

I presume we have all seen Kelvin MacKenzie's public expression of Bremorse in the Sun?

As I said yesterday, the markets will decide this, and right now the markets are going mental. A bigger loss than Lehmans. We have destabilised not only ourselves, but other countries, some of which were perilously close to chaos already.

I also suggested that we were entering a dynamic, chaotic state yesterday - that we had set off an entirely unpredictable chain reaction. And I was pooh-poohed by some.

Maybe the fiend Osborne was right and we have put a bomb under everything. Eeeesh.

How do we unclusterfuck this?

You voted Out!

This uncertainty and turmoil, wholly predictable and indeed predicted, was the principal reason I backed Remain in the end, to the bemusement of some on here.

My conscience is at least clear.

Bob__Sykes said:

SeanT said:

RodCrosby said:

Lammy ranting on Sky: "Referendum needs 2/3rds majority. We can't have rule by the mob! I'll never vote for Brexit in the HoC"

But if the economic meltdown continues then there will be a lot of people, an awful lot, who would quite like parliament to overrule the people.

I presume we have all seen Kelvin MacKenzie's public expression of Bremorse in the Sun?

As I said yesterday, the markets will decide this, and right now the markets are going mental. A bigger loss than Lehmans. We have destabilised not only ourselves, but other countries, some of which were perilously close to chaos already.

I also suggested that we were entering a dynamic, chaotic state yesterday - that we had set off an entirely unpredictable chain reaction. And I was pooh-poohed by some.

Maybe the fiend Osborne was right and we have put a bomb under everything. Eeeesh.

How do we unclusterfuck this?

You voted Out!

This uncertainty and turmoil, wholly predictable and indeed predicted, was the principal reason I backed Remain in the end, to the bemusement of some on here.

My conscience is at least clear.