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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The fight to be next CON leader and PM: The race begins

SystemSystem Posts: 12,586
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The fight to be next CON leader and PM: The race begins

We’ve just got details of the Conservative leadership contest. The plan is to start it immediately and have Cameron’s successor in place on September 2nd.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,873
    edited June 2016
    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited June 2016
    Roy Hodgson is playing a terrible trick by having Sterling start for England today...

    this way if we do go out, it's inevitable that Sterling will be the fall guy in the media due to the limitless number of puns that can be made and a scapegoat rather than Roy=turnip etc.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    No Osborne!
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    If he gets that far
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,873
    I told Mike on Saturday to prep for an Autumn election

    @JohnRentoul: Unofficial part of the 1922 Committee timetable: general election on 13 October.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,965
    I'd have preferred them to do this a little quicker, but at least it should start to take shape fairly quickly. How many will enter the race?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    I predict a maximum of 4 candidates.

    May, Bojo, Crabb (so wet he is named after a sea creature) and Mor-lol-gan

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,939
    Everyone needs to be sensible. Boris and Theresa should be the only two to stand and then the ballot can go out to party members immediately.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    Seriously though as an outer I would accept May. I think she would destroy whoever Labour put up.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,060
    Theresa May. 10/1. That's all.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,815
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I told Mike on Saturday to prep for an Autumn election

    @JohnRentoul: Unofficial part of the 1922 Committee timetable: general election on 13 October.

    Still not convinced about a new GE myself - but if so, presumably we won't get the farce of a Batley & Spen by election with Labour and a bunch of fringe candidates....
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Well we've got a 'Cardiff stays' event coming up. Certainly a fair number of people involved in getting EU funding are upset. There's also quite a bit of anger at the luddites in the Valleys who wanted out.

    For me many welsh people quietly envy the private sector dynamism that England has (and Ireland and Scotland, for that matter).

    Thing is, they'll never vote conservative. And so smashing the old guard will have to do, for now (Hence the referendum leave).
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Stephen Crabb PMSL.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,939
    TGOHF said:

    I predict a maximum of 4 candidates.

    May, Bojo, Crabb (so wet he is named after a sea creature) and Mor-lol-gan

    Crabb and Morgan have no chance and would simply be holding the process up something we can ill afford at the moment.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Timetable is good. Boris becomes PM in September, gone by October. Enough to get his mugshot on the wall of no10, but minimises damage.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,873
    Wanderer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    If he gets that far
    Yup. It's going to be May v Crabb

    Boris is the new Portillo
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2016
    Boris too short. Theresa is still the value IMO. They should be similar odds, I think.

    Edit: The timetable doesn't help Boris. Theresa IS the ABB candidate.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    If I were a Greek God I'd ensure Boris was the only candidate. He deserves his fate.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,873
    When the ballot papers go out to the members it could be a horrendous time to be a leaver
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    FPT;
    Pong said:

    Jobabob said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/747409479612895232

    Wow. Tight. May vs Boris? No one else will have time?
    Why not? You only need a proposer and a seconder to get on the first-round ballot.

    However, I think the final two will probably be Theresa and Boris. In this chaos, it's either got to be the safest and most unifying figure you can find, or the one who has taken the political initiative (which is undoubtedly Boris, like it or not). But who knows? Surprises have happened before.
    The quick move is clearly designed to block the right. Stops a Corbyn effect from nutjob new members.

    Clever move.
    I'm not sure that's the thinking behind the quick contest - if it was, they could just pass a simple rule that only those who were members before DC's resignation can vote.

    I think the timing is basically down to;

    1. Keep Corbyn in place
    2. Make sure the Cameroons/remainers aren't able to stage a comeback if the economy goes seriously south before the contest gets going.
    3. Genuine concern about the sh*thole they've got themselves into.

    The fact it helps boris is probably the lesser evil in the eyes of the 1922
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Lennon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I told Mike on Saturday to prep for an Autumn election

    @JohnRentoul: Unofficial part of the 1922 Committee timetable: general election on 13 October.

    Still not convinced about a new GE myself - but if so, presumably we won't get the farce of a Batley & Spen by election with Labour and a bunch of fringe candidates....
    If I were the new PM, elected a ticket on X or Y view of what should happen next, I'd go to the country.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,060
    GIN1138 said:

    Everyone needs to be sensible. Boris and Theresa should be the only two to stand and then the ballot can go out to party members immediately.

    That would be the sensible option. Could be done and dusted by the end of July.

    As long as they allow enough time for postal ballots to travel to those overseas I'll be happy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,838
    My Tory leader book is a total mess :(
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    If I were a powerful anointing grandee in the Tory party right now I'd tell Boris the job is his and that it's his opportunity to make the Brexit 'crisis' into a positive force for good.

    Boris, Gove, Patel etc all need to be given the chance to form a Eurosceptic govt and negotiate a really good deal for the UK.

    Boris wouldn't be my first choice as leader but he was the face of the Brexit campaign and I'd be happy for him to take charge.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    I can say with absolute certainty that if Boris gets it, the Tories won't get my vote.
    Boris is a duplicitous shit.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    May should be in single figures. 27% is preposterous.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Wanderer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    If he gets that far
    Yup. It's going to be May v Crabb

    Boris is the new Portillo
    who the hell is Crabb ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,060
    Pulpstar said:

    My Tory leader book is a total mess :(

    Mine's great as long as Boris doesn't make the final ballot. :o
    Boris v George was my nightmare scenario, that's looking very unlikely now.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited June 2016
    taffys said:

    Well we've got a 'Cardiff stays' event coming up. Certainly a fair number of people involved in getting EU funding are upset. There's also quite a bit of anger at the luddites in the Valleys who wanted out.

    For me many welsh people quietly envy the private sector dynamism that England has (and Ireland and Scotland, for that matter).

    Thing is, they'll never vote conservative. And so smashing the old guard will have to do, for now (Hence the referendum leave).

    I read that our net benefit from the EU in Wales is actually as little as 50-100 million Euros a year.

    It's hard to do the sums, but is that true?

    If it is, fair play to the EU in managing to project an image as Wales' saviour! Sticking an EU badge, placard and flag everywhere and calling the roads Ludwigsburger Strasse was good spin.

    Central government is giving us £14.8billion this year. I suspect we don't even pay back half of that in taxes...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Why is OGH continuing to ignore Liam Fox?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,939
    edited June 2016
    Here's one October election, held in the backdrop of a financial and political crisis, that lead to a Conservative (national government) landslide

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1931
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    May should be in single figures. 27% is preposterous.

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Boris too short. Theresa is still the value IMO. They should be similar odds, I think.

    Edit: The timetable doesn't help Boris. Theresa IS the ABB candidate.

    Have you considered betting against each other?!
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Boris would lose many of the votes of Tory Remainers at the GE so May would be a much more formidable choice.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    RodCrosby said:

    Why is OGH continuing to ignore Liam Fox?

    Because almost no-one in the party wants him to be leader?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,873
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Wanderer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    If he gets that far
    Yup. It's going to be May v Crabb

    Boris is the new Portillo
    who the hell is Crabb ?
    A ramshagger, though a true working class hero like me.

    Would be perfect if he hadn't have voted against same sex marriage
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Wanderer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    If he gets that far
    Yup. It's going to be May v Crabb

    Boris is the new Portillo
    Your stock was already low, now it's junk status.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,409
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    May should be in single figures. 27% is preposterous.

    Why? If you want a big hitter and you can't stand Boris (one of the few markets that is on the rise right now), May is the obvious choice. Who else is there?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Boris needs to shake off the Hestletine thing. Have May and Osborne made peace?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Wanderer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    If he gets that far
    Yup. It's going to be May v Crabb

    Boris is the new Portillo
    who the hell is Crabb ?
    Wasn't he a character in Harry Potter?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    May should be in single figures. 27% is preposterous.

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Boris too short. Theresa is still the value IMO. They should be similar odds, I think.

    Edit: The timetable doesn't help Boris. Theresa IS the ABB candidate.

    Have you considered betting against each other?!
    Someone should invent a kind of betting exchange thingy.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Jonathan said:

    Boris needs to shake off the Hestletine thing. Have May and Osborne made peace?

    Maybe not, but I think you can be very confident that Boris and Osborne aren't exactly the bestest of friends at the moment.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @lucianaberger: I have spoken to Jeremy today and it is with great sadness that I have stood down from his Shadow Cabinet. https://t.co/YRYiu7HRd0
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    I have Johnson at 5/2.

    That may be a bad omen for him as I must be unique here on making a loss on the referendum. [Excuse = no secure access to internet during the early evening to take advantage of AndyJS's spreadsheet and offset my loss on turnout betting.]


  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    Did you vote for Corbyn too?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,939
    Jonathan said:

    Boris needs to shake off the Hestletine thing. Have May and Osborne made peace?

    My enemies enemy is my friend. Thersa can stop Boris, Osborne can't. You do the math. ;)
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Wanderer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    If he gets that far
    Yup. It's going to be May v Crabb

    Boris is the new Portillo
    who the hell is Crabb ?
    The one with the beard - moved from SoS for Wales to DWP after IDS resigned.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,945
    pls let May stand - i have been sitting on a bet on her for 3 years.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,926

    Enda Kenny sets out his brexit stall

    http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/a-political-earthquake-enda-kenny-on-the-four-reasons-brexit-stakes-are-higher-for-ireland-than-any-other-eu-country-34836807.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MarkFoxNews: Very good news @David_Cameron intends to remain as an MP. #DavidCameron

    Sitting behind Boris laughing at him...
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Mervyn King saying euro countries face far greater problems than us now we have left.

    He's certainly put his pads on and walked out into the middle today!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,951
    It is not uncommon for people to want to put down a marker for future contests in this scenario but where we are right now there really should be 2 candidates Boris and May and then out to the members. This is not a time for mucking about.

    Watch Osborne. If the referendum had been the other way then I think he would have walked it. Right now his support, and that of his placemen, will be significant. My guess is that he will go with Boris.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,873
    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    Did you vote for Corbyn too?
    Nope. I wasn't like the more stupid half witted Tories on here. It was a matter for Labour.

    You can imagine the shrieking if Labour supporters had tried to hijack the Tory contest
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Boris has a lot of promises to keep. Off the top of my head:
    * £350 million a week extra for the NHS
    * No public services cuts
    * VAT cuts
    * No tax rises
    * Substantial reductions in immigration
    * All EU funding and regional grants replaced in full
    * Higher wages
    * Lower housing costs
    * All EU worker protections maintained
    * Full freedom of movement, work, study and settlement for UK citizens in the EU
    * No new Scottish independence referendum
    * An open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic

    If he is elected these become government commitments - or will be framed as such. The Tories might want to ask themselves how many of these are actually deliverable. It could just be that a Remainer who is not associated with them may be better placed to row back and explain why they are not possible in the real world.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 1,015
    Defence questions in 10 minutes. Wonder who will turn up on the front benches?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Quote of the day so far:

    Mervyn King: "The Remain campaign treated people like idiots"
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,939
    taffys said:

    Mervyn King saying euro countries face far greater problems than us now we have left.

    He's certainly put his pads on and walked out into the middle today!

    Good for Merv! :smiley:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Brave from Luciana Berger. May impact chances of winning Liverpool nomination. Put party and country first. Unlike ludicrous Andy Burnham.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,873
    Pong said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    May should be in single figures. 27% is preposterous.

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Boris too short. Theresa is still the value IMO. They should be similar odds, I think.

    Edit: The timetable doesn't help Boris. Theresa IS the ABB candidate.

    Have you considered betting against each other?!
    Someone should invent a kind of betting exchange thingy.
    I'm thinking of setting up an exchange like that. I'm thinking of calling it FairBet
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Scott_P said:

    @MarkFoxNews: Very good news @David_Cameron intends to remain as an MP. #DavidCameron

    Sitting behind Boris laughing at him...

    I think all he has guaranteed is that after he steps down as PM he won't resign before the next GE, which if it is in October isn't that onerous a promise. You're right about the laughing at him however...

    His last action as PM should be to reduce PM salary to that of an MP.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,945
    Scott_P said:

    @lucianaberger: I have spoken to Jeremy today and it is with great sadness that I have stood down from his Shadow Cabinet. https://t.co/YRYiu7HRd0

    Better late than never.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,939
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @MarkFoxNews: Very good news @David_Cameron intends to remain as an MP. #DavidCameron

    Sitting behind Boris laughing at him...

    David Cameron = Ted Heath? Except where Heath took us into Europe, Cameron took us out (though he didn't mean to)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,646
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I told Mike on Saturday to prep for an Autumn election

    @JohnRentoul: Unofficial part of the 1922 Committee timetable: general election on 13 October.

    My assumption was 10th November - hold conferences as manifesto launches, then reconvene parliament and immediately pass the motion for an election. The '22 seem to have binned off conference which means the new leader passing the dissolution motion in the 2 week session of w/c 5th and w/c 12th September.

    Why? Surely they would want their new leader to have a conference to put themselves properly onto people's attention and make their case?

    Either way, I have convened meetings later this week to start our GE prep in my constituency.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Scott_P said:

    @lucianaberger: I have spoken to Jeremy today and it is with great sadness that I have stood down from his Shadow Cabinet. https://t.co/YRYiu7HRd0

    Charlie Falconer has resigned.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    PlatoSaid said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Wanderer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    If he gets that far
    Yup. It's going to be May v Crabb

    Boris is the new Portillo
    who the hell is Crabb ?
    The one with the beard - moved from SoS for Wales to DWP after IDS resigned.
    Might as well be Jeremy Corbyn, he has all the profile of a pancake in a dark forest at night
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,206
    I was convinced Boris would be a shoo-in, but now I'm having serious doubts. What with the way the whole Brexit lark is going, the Tories will want to put maximum distance between them and it as soon as possible. They'll try and blame it on UKIP and Labour's ineffectiveness as much as possible. Boris and Gove can just be jettisoned as aberrations.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Brave from Luciana Berger. May impact chances of winning Liverpool nomination. Put party and country first. Unlike ludicrous Andy Burnham.

    So brave.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    SouthamObserver said:

    Boris has a lot of promises to keep. Off the top of my head:
    * £350 million a week extra for the NHS
    * No public services cuts
    * VAT cuts
    * No tax rises
    * Substantial reductions in immigration
    * All EU funding and regional grants replaced in full
    * Higher wages
    * Lower housing costs
    * All EU worker protections maintained
    * Full freedom of movement, work, study and settlement for UK citizens in the EU
    * No new Scottish independence referendum
    * An open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic

    If he is elected these become government commitments - or will be framed as such. The Tories might want to ask themselves how many of these are actually deliverable. It could just be that a Remainer who is not associated with them may be better placed to row back and explain why they are not possible in the real world.

    Precisely. 'The Right Honourable Gentleman campaigned at the EU referendum on a promise that £350m a week extra would be available for the NHS. Now he is saying that the NHS budget has had to be frozen for the third year in succession. Will he now apologise to the House, and to the country?'
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,939
    AndyJS said:

    Quote of the day so far:

    Mervyn King: "The Remain campaign treated people like idiots"

    Was Merv fired by Osborne before he wanted to go by any chance?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    Jobabob said:

    Scott_P said:

    @lucianaberger: I have spoken to Jeremy today and it is with great sadness that I have stood down from his Shadow Cabinet. https://t.co/YRYiu7HRd0

    Charlie Falconer has resigned.
    LOL!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,965
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    Did you vote for Corbyn too?
    Nope. I wasn't like the more stupid half witted Tories on here. It was a matter for Labour.

    You can imagine the shrieking if Labour supporters had tried to hijack the Tory contest
    By voting for who? Michael Fabricant?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    GIN1138 said:

    taffys said:

    Mervyn King saying euro countries face far greater problems than us now we have left.

    He's certainly put his pads on and walked out into the middle today!

    Good for Merv! :smiley:
    Merv for PM
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,692
    ICM GE VI poll out, fieldwork at weekend:

    Con 36% (+1), Lab 32% (-1), UKIP 15% (+1), LD 7% (-2), SNP 5% (+1)

    Volatility in this market not yet kicked in.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    Did you vote for Corbyn too?
    Nope. I wasn't like the more stupid half witted Tories on here. It was a matter for Labour.

    You can imagine the shrieking if Labour supporters had tried to hijack the Tory contest
    By voting for who? Michael Fabricant?
    Fabricant is less of a buffoon than Boris - let's be honest about that!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Burgon still strongly batting for Corbyn.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,939
    Pro_Rata said:

    ICM GE VI poll out, fieldwork at weekend:

    Con 36% (+1), Lab 32% (-1), UKIP 15% (+1), LD 7% (-2), SNP 5% (+1)

    Volatility in this market not yet kicked in.

    Oh!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,060
    edited June 2016
    Fenster said:

    taffys said:

    Well we've got a 'Cardiff stays' event coming up. Certainly a fair number of people involved in getting EU funding are upset. There's also quite a bit of anger at the luddites in the Valleys who wanted out.

    For me many welsh people quietly envy the private sector dynamism that England has (and Ireland and Scotland, for that matter).

    Thing is, they'll never vote conservative. And so smashing the old guard will have to do, for now (Hence the referendum leave).

    I read that our net benefit from the EU in Wales is actually as little as 50-100 million Euros a year.

    It's hard to do the sums, but is that true?
    From visiting Wales recently, that would seem like a reasonable estimate for annual spending on the EU flags that are everywhere one looks!
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    DavidL said:

    It is not uncommon for people to want to put down a marker for future contests in this scenario but where we are right now there really should be 2 candidates Boris and May and then out to the members. This is not a time for mucking about.

    Watch Osborne. If the referendum had been the other way then I think he would have walked it. Right now his support, and that of his placemen, will be significant. My guess is that he will go with Boris.

    Not sure if anyone has mentioned this, from today's Times: "George Osborne is weighing up whether to back Boris Johnson’s bid to become the next Tory leader and prime minister, The Times understands.

    The chancellor, who supported the Remain campaign and made repeated warnings about the cataclysmic economic risks of quitting the EU, could ride in behind Mr Johnson, the former mayor of London who was the most prominent advocate for Brexit."

    Behind paywall, but basically says Osborne will support BoJo if he gets offered Foreign Secretary.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/osborne-considers-backing-johnsons-bid-for-leadership-n30qmwjnp


  • AndrewSpencerAndrewSpencer Posts: 113
    I'd be happy with either Boris or May, each has different strengths (and weaknesses). The problem for May was that her strategy over Brexit seems to have been predicated on a narrow Remain win with Cameron and Osborne fatally damaged and then she emerged as the stop Boris candidate acceptable to both Remainers and Brexiteers who were uncomfortable with Boris. The problem with Leave winning narrowly is that I imagine a number of Remainers are pretty peeved that the Home Secretary had nothing to say, especially on immigration given that issue's prominence in the campaign.
  • megalomaniacs4umegalomaniacs4u Posts: 326
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I told Mike on Saturday to prep for an Autumn election

    @JohnRentoul: Unofficial part of the 1922 Committee timetable: general election on 13 October.

    Did OGH book an october holiday already?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,873
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    Did you vote for Corbyn too?
    Nope. I wasn't like the more stupid half witted Tories on here. It was a matter for Labour.

    You can imagine the shrieking if Labour supporters had tried to hijack the Tory contest
    By voting for who? Michael Fabricant?
    I like Micky Fab.

    They would vote for Sir Bill Cash, Peter Bone, or Liam Fox
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited June 2016
    I hope someone in the PLP is registering every possible variation of " Labour " other than the current ones with the Electoral Commission. They need the Corbynite rump to be the SDP and them to be the continuity party in voters minds that time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,945
    What a load of crap the First Term Parliaments Act was. HoL should have thrown that nonsense out.

    Let's hope it is repealed now, rather than just ignored via a vote of no confidence trick.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    Hmmm. I seem to remember you were originally voting for Leave as well :D
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,795
    PlatoSaid said:

    Burgon still strongly batting for Corbyn.

    As one of the most experienced shadow ministers he's worth listening to...

    Mind you he must be a trifle upset that Rebecca Long-Bailey got the chief secretary role. Who knew she had such a powerful economic mind?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,838
    edited June 2016
    A General Election in October ?

    Wow.

    These politicians are really spoiling us.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2016
    I've taken the few quid available at 13/1 on Corbyn standing down between October & Dec.

    I don't care about winning a hundred quid though.

    For the good of the party and the country, please just go.

    Now.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MichaelLCrick: Source from left-wing Campaign for Labour Party Democracy says considering pressing for full mandatory reselection in every Labour seat
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,873
    megalomaniacs4u said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I told Mike on Saturday to prep for an Autumn election

    @JohnRentoul: Unofficial part of the 1922 Committee timetable: general election on 13 October.

    Did OGH book an october holiday already?
    His holiday begins 5th of September until the 26th.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Omnium said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Burgon still strongly batting for Corbyn.

    As one of the most experienced shadow ministers he's worth listening to...

    Mind you he must be a trifle upset that Rebecca Long-Bailey got the chief secretary role. Who knew she had such a powerful economic mind?
    I think I saw her on Sky - looks about 25. Said she'd been a commercial lawyer - but had an interest in economics.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,082
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    Yes, it has to be Boris for that reason. Also because he may change his mind.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Luciana for Labour leader? Value at 100/1 ??
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,945
    Pong said:

    I've taken the few quid available at 13/1 on Corbyn standing down between October & Dec.

    I don't care if I win a hundred quid though.

    For the good of the party and the country, just go now. Please.

    Limpet Corbyn. What a self-centred, snivelling little man. And this from the party of Aneurin Bevan and Clem Atlee.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,873
    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm voting for Boris

    He promised us Brexit with no free movement and £350m a week to the NHS, I want to see him try and deliver it.

    Hmmm. I seem to remember you were originally voting for Leave as well :D
    I saw the error of my ways.

    Now about that 7/4 on Osborne. Heh
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,070
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Boris has a lot of promises to keep. Off the top of my head:
    * £350 million a week extra for the NHS
    * No public services cuts
    * VAT cuts
    * No tax rises
    * Substantial reductions in immigration
    * All EU funding and regional grants replaced in full
    * Higher wages
    * Lower housing costs
    * All EU worker protections maintained
    * Full freedom of movement, work, study and settlement for UK citizens in the EU
    * No new Scottish independence referendum
    * An open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic

    If he is elected these become government commitments - or will be framed as suche. The Tories might want to ask themselves how many of these are actually deliverable. It could just be that a Remainer who is not associated with them may be better placed to row back and explain why they are not possible in the real world.

    Precisely. 'The Right Honourable Gentleman campaigned at the EU referendum on a promise that £350m a week extra would be available for the NHS. Now he is saying that the NHS budget has had to be frozen for the third year in succession. Will he now apologise to the House, and to the country?'
    I think PMQs are like good comedy. Although the content seems random and knockabout, and funny also at times, the discipline required to put up a good show is tremendous, the preparation huge (just ask past PMs).

    IMO Boris simply hasn't got that discipline. He will end up not taking it seriously and as such, tying himself up in knots. Even Jezza, as long as he keeps it simple, would destroy him.

    Boris - the Wednesday 6.30pm Radio 4 Comedy Show of politics.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,945
    Pulpstar said:

    A General Election in October ?

    Wow.

    These politicians are really spoiling us.

    BF is going to melt at this rate. As it will also be peak US POTUS betting time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,495
    LucyJones said:

    DavidL said:

    It is not uncommon for people to want to put down a marker for future contests in this scenario but where we are right now there really should be 2 candidates Boris and May and then out to the members. This is not a time for mucking about.

    Watch Osborne. If the referendum had been the other way then I think he would have walked it. Right now his support, and that of his placemen, will be significant. My guess is that he will go with Boris.

    Not sure if anyone has mentioned this, from today's Times: "George Osborne is weighing up whether to back Boris Johnson’s bid to become the next Tory leader and prime minister, The Times understands.

    The chancellor, who supported the Remain campaign and made repeated warnings about the cataclysmic economic risks of quitting the EU, could ride in behind Mr Johnson, the former mayor of London who was the most prominent advocate for Brexit."

    Behind paywall, but basically says Osborne will support BoJo if he gets offered Foreign Secretary.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/osborne-considers-backing-johnsons-bid-for-leadership-n30qmwjnp


    But would anyone on the Leave side trust our relationship with the outside world - and Europe especially - being filtered through Osborne?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,939
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    megalomaniacs4u said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I told Mike on Saturday to prep for an Autumn election

    @JohnRentoul: Unofficial part of the 1922 Committee timetable: general election on 13 October.

    Did OGH book an october holiday already?
    His holiday begins 5th of September until the 26th.
    If the Con leadership campaign is wrapped up quicker than anticipated we could have a September election (weather would be better and nights lighter in September compared to October)
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,386
    Berger's gone? That's all the pretty ones (both of them) - he must be toast now.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    A General Election in October ?

    Wow.

    These politicians are really spoiling us.

    Don't two-thirds of MPs have to vote in favour of an early election for it to happen? Labour and SNP could block it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,838
    DNC and GOP conferences in under a month. I can barely keep up.
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