Yes, to be fair I probably overseasoned that haggis (I have been on this site for five hours now, I am getting tired). SOME Irish pundits have discussed IREXIT, but only to dismiss it.
What is certainly true is that the Irish are freaked by the economic implications of Brexit. This fear and doubt would be quintuple for Scexit.
Yesterday, I (in my capacity as a fund manager) recieved stuff from Ireland about how Dublin is a fantastic place to relocate my business to. Low taxes, low rent, in the single market for financial services.
I think they're going to take a swing at London, so I can't see them leaving.
Nissan, Honda, Toyota and other Japanese and other non-EU manufacturers could also part relocate there taking some of their skilled workers with them.
Well, it could be argued that Scotland 'foisted' Labour governments on England though Im not sure you could call them left wing. Thats the thing about being part of a 300 year union involving 4 countries though. You have a large say in whats going on. You lose some but you also win some. Not so easy being a wee fella among 27+.
Labour had a majority of MPs in England in 1997 and 2001.
If you stage a victorious campaign and then tell people literally verbatim "they are going to disappointed" when your proposed change is abrogated, then enter purdah, you do own that, yeah. It causes huge uncertainty and it is an act of recklessness to go to the people and whip up a majority based on lies.
Even if Boris and Gove full intend to implement their proposals, there is a pretty good chance they will never be in a position to do so, because they will never be offered a job which gives them the power.
You're posting this to take the piss out of it right?
Are you still claiming Nelson's scale was accurate and that no areas voted over 70% Leave?
I will happily concede to you on the point of there being some areas over 70% Leave - I had no idea and I'm delighted.
You will perhaps be able to explain to me how leaving off the 70% part a) makes Fraser's scale misleading, and b) helps his nefarious Brexit sleight of hand con-trick in any way
Why do people assume that a referendum means everyone is entirely polarised? I voted Leave, but it was a very close call. I find myself in very close agreement with almost all my friends about the issues, and around 50% of those friends voted Remain.
Anyone that finds themselves thinking that this was 100% right or 100% wrong probably needs to have a bit of a quiet period of thought.
We're often better than our politicians - sometimes much, much better.
Yes, very much agree with you. I don't think that all Remainers are quisling traitorous pig dogs, nor are all Leavers noble democrats. This is real life, not fucking Star Wars.
We'll all have our red lines that made us choose one side over another; immigration, sovereignty, the economy or whatever.
I'm a lukewarm Leaver. While I've felt for a long time that the EU has lost its way, it wouldn't have taken much to make me a lukewarm Remainer. It's a pity that it's all become so partisan and vitriolic.
Decent club of two then
I sort of want the badge saying 'quisling traitorous pig-dog' mind you.
In our club of two, supposing we wanted to march on Westminster, what should our slogan be? I quite like your 'lukewarm'.
Shadow Cabinet - who will be left with any experience of government? I'd suggest that when we enter negotiations on our exit we involve a trio of old heads as consultants - Blair, Clegg, and Cameron. Boris setting the agenda, but those three as a consultant body.
No. Blair, Clegg, and Cameron have no interest in making a success for us.
You're wasting your time, the Remainers are still traumatised and can't think straight. They'll probably need help to undress for bed for another couple of days. Give then time before using long words.
Según el sondeo de GAD3 para Abc y Cope, realizado a pie de urna, el PP ganará las elecciones con un 30,4% de los votos que supondrán entre 121 y 124 escaños. Unidos Podemos, con el 24,8% de sufragios obtendrá entre 87 y 89 representantes. El PSOE (21.8%) conseguirá entre 84 y 86 diputados mientras que Ciudadanos (13,2%) se quedará entre 29 y 32.
PP +1.5% Podemos +4% PSOE flat Citizens -1%
Difference caused by Communists going from 5% to 0% as they merged with Podemos. Looks like P + PSOE is short of 175.
You're wasting your time, the Remainers are still traumatised and can't think straight. They'll probably need help to undress for bed for another couple of days. Give then time before using long words.
Yes indeed. I think I might take a few days off until the level of conversation emerged above name calling and flat denial of facts and realities.
Why do people assume that a referendum means everyone is entirely polarised? I voted Leave, but it was a very close call. I find myself in very close agreement with almost all my friends about the issues, and around 50% of those friends voted Remain.
Anyone that finds themselves thinking that this was 100% right or 100% wrong probably needs to have a bit of a quiet period of thought.
We're often better than our politicians - sometimes much, much better.
Yes, very much agree with you. I don't think that all Remainers are quisling traitorous pig dogs, nor are all Leavers noble democrats. This is real life, not fucking Star Wars.
We'll all have our red lines that made us choose one side over another; immigration, sovereignty, the economy or whatever.
I'm a lukewarm Leaver. While I've felt for a long time that the EU has lost its way, it wouldn't have taken much to make me a lukewarm Remainer. It's a pity that it's all become so partisan and vitriolic.
Decent club of two then
I sort of want the badge saying 'quisling traitorous pig-dog' mind you.
In our club of two, supposing we wanted to march on Westminster, what should our slogan be? I quite like your 'lukewarm'.
"What do we want?" "Not much" "When do we want it?" "Any time it's convenient actually".
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
But what if it's a Hung Parliament? Then how on earth is it actually going to happen? Coalition with LDs will halt it immediately - as LDs will vote against.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
A fudge may be what people on all sides want - but it will be a fudge with us on the outside. There is simply no way it can be stopped at this point: no party is going to destroy itself by ignoring the referendum, not enough MPs will risk everything to demand a second referendum that would probably fail anyway, the EU may make an offer for a good exit settlement, but cannot make an offer that prevents us from leaving as it would undermine them, and even if they did, no government here could accept it without some sort of democratic endorsement to counter the democratic endorsement of the referendum.
Shadow Cabinet - who will be left with any experience of government? I'd suggest that when we enter negotiations on our exit we involve a trio of old heads as consultants - Blair, Clegg, and Cameron. Boris setting the agenda, but those three as a consultant body.
No. Blair, Clegg, and Cameron have no interest in making a success for us.
However I'd trust them to work for their country. Assuming they accept the task.
You're posting this to take the piss out of it right?
Which is 'The Real Brexit Map', sport?
The blue map (as I type this I really can't believe there's a cybernat conspiracy over the colour of a map - and that's from a paid up conspiracy theorist), shows the level of Brexit support. The yellow map shows the level of Remain support. In his screengrabbing, Fraser Nelson has chosen the blue map. And given it the not wholly fantasy title of 'Brexit Map'. Had he chosen the yellow map, an equally valid choice imo, that would have been more the 'Remain Map'.
Either one of these maps offers a considerably more realistic picture of voting patterns than the official blue and yellow number, though perhaps a less sensationalist one.
With those two points in mind 'The Real Brexit Map' doesn't seem to be a huge misnomer. Perhaps I'm missing something.
The difference in contrast!!!!!!! (by the BBC - evidently big supporters of Leave)
Then he debunks himself by saying the contrast is actually the human eye!!!!
Mess.
Yes and Nelson posted it with a deliberately misleading scale.
See my reply downthread. And Wings' tweets weren't about the scale. Presumably he thought it was of less consequences than the real meat and potatoes of the human eyes not being able to differentiate between shades of blue. Who knew biology was a Brexiteer?
Yes, to be fair I probably overseasoned that haggis (I have been on this site for five hours now, I am getting tired). SOME Irish pundits have discussed IREXIT, but only to dismiss it.
What is certainly true is that the Irish are freaked by the economic implications of Brexit. This fear and doubt would be quintuple for Scexit.
Yesterday, I (in my capacity as a fund manager) recieved stuff from Ireland about how Dublin is a fantastic place to relocate my business to. Low taxes, low rent, in the single market for financial services.
I think they're going to take a swing at London, so I can't see them leaving.
Nissan, Honda, Toyota and other Japanese and other non-EU manufacturers could also part relocate there taking some of their skilled workers with them.
Ghoulish delight at the possibility of British job losses isn't a good look.
Según el sondeo de GAD3 para Abc y Cope, realizado a pie de urna, el PP ganará las elecciones con un 30,4% de los votos que supondrán entre 121 y 124 escaños. Unidos Podemos, con el 24,8% de sufragios obtendrá entre 87 y 89 representantes. El PSOE (21.8%) conseguirá entre 84 y 86 diputados mientras que Ciudadanos (13,2%) se quedará entre 29 y 32.
PP +1.5% Podemos +4% PSOE flat Citizens -1%
Difference caused by Communists going from 5% to 0% as they merged with Podemos. Looks like P + PSOE is short of 175.
So biggest gainers Podemos, biggest losers Citizens, the populist surge across the EU continues!
Why do people assume that a referendum means everyone is entirely polarised? I voted Leave, but it was a very close call. I find myself in very close agreement with almost all my friends about the issues, and around 50% of those friends voted Remain.
Anyone that finds themselves thinking that this was 100% right or 100% wrong probably needs to have a bit of a quiet period of thought.
We're often better than our politicians - sometimes much, much better.
Yes, very much agree with you. I don't think that all Remainers are quisling traitorous pig dogs, nor are all Leavers noble democrats. This is real life, not fucking Star Wars.
We'll all have our red lines that made us choose one side over another; immigration, sovereignty, the economy or whatever.
I'm a lukewarm Leaver. While I've felt for a long time that the EU has lost its way, it wouldn't have taken much to make me a lukewarm Remainer. It's a pity that it's all become so partisan and vitriolic.
Decent club of two then
I sort of want the badge saying 'quisling traitorous pig-dog' mind you.
In our club of two, supposing we wanted to march on Westminster, what should our slogan be? I quite like your 'lukewarm'.
"What do we want?" "Not much" "When do we want it?" "Any time it's convenient actually".
I feel we have a movement here .
"What do we want?" "Time travel" "When do we want it?" "Who cares!!!!"
Why do people assume that a referendum means everyone is entirely polarised? I voted Leave, but it was a very close call. I find myself in very close agreement with almost all my friends about the issues, and around 50% of those friends voted Remain.
Anyone that finds themselves thinking that this was 100% right or 100% wrong probably needs to have a bit of a quiet period of thought.
We're often better than our politicians - sometimes much, much better.
Yes, very much agree with you. I don't think that all Remainers are quisling traitorous pig dogs, nor are all Leavers noble democrats. This is real life, not fucking Star Wars.
We'll all have our red lines that made us choose one side over another; immigration, sovereignty, the economy or whatever.
I'm a lukewarm Leaver. While I've felt for a long time that the EU has lost its way, it wouldn't have taken much to make me a lukewarm Remainer. It's a pity that it's all become so partisan and vitriolic.
Decent club of two then
I sort of want the badge saying 'quisling traitorous pig-dog' mind you.
In our club of two, supposing we wanted to march on Westminster, what should our slogan be? I quite like your 'lukewarm'.
"What do we want?" "Not much" "When do we want it?" "Any time it's convenient actually".
I feel we have a movement here .
Do you have the free time needed to follow this path to victory?
Anyone else with us? (party of two needs third - sounds very Westminster)
"Our job was to persuade you to jump off the cliff. Somebody else should have given you wings"
With best wishes from the Vote Leave Campaign
Or more accurately
"Our job was to persuade you to jump off the cliff. If you didnt get a parachute first it isnt exactly our fault"
In the same way as if CND had persuaded the government of the merits of unilateral disarmament, we would not be expecting them to hand the MoD a new plan to beef up its conventional forces.
You're saying Gove and Johnson are no better statesmen than the leaders of CND?
Why do people assume that a referendum means everyone is entirely polarised? I voted Leave, but it was a very close call. I find myself in very close agreement with almost all my friends about the issues, and around 50% of those friends voted Remain.
Anyone that finds themselves thinking that this was 100% right or 100% wrong probably needs to have a bit of a quiet period of thought.
We're often better than our politicians - sometimes much, much better.
Yes, very much agree with you. I don't think that all Remainers are quisling traitorous pig dogs, nor are all Leavers noble democrats. This is real life, not fucking Star Wars.
We'll all have our red lines that made us choose one side over another; immigration, sovereignty, the economy or whatever.
I'm a lukewarm Leaver. While I've felt for a long time that the EU has lost its way, it wouldn't have taken much to make me a lukewarm Remainer. It's a pity that it's all become so partisan and vitriolic.
Decent club of two then
I sort of want the badge saying 'quisling traitorous pig-dog' mind you.
In our club of two, supposing we wanted to march on Westminster, what should our slogan be? I quite like your 'lukewarm'.
What do we want? - Sensible policies with wide ranging support! When do we want it? - Within a reasonable timeframe!
Why do people assume that a referendum means everyone is entirely polarised? I voted Leave, but it was a very close call. I find myself in very close agreement with almost all my friends about the issues, and around 50% of those friends voted Remain.
Anyone that finds themselves thinking that this was 100% right or 100% wrong probably needs to have a bit of a quiet period of thought.
We're often better than our politicians - sometimes much, much better.
Yes, very much agree with you. I don't think that all Remainers are quisling traitorous pig dogs, nor are all Leavers noble democrats. This is real life, not fucking Star Wars.
We'll all have our red lines that made us choose one side over another; immigration, sovereignty, the economy or whatever.
I'm a lukewarm Leaver. While I've felt for a long time that the EU has lost its way, it wouldn't have taken much to make me a lukewarm Remainer. It's a pity that it's all become so partisan and vitriolic.
Decent club of two then
I sort of want the badge saying 'quisling traitorous pig-dog' mind you.
In our club of two, supposing we wanted to march on Westminster, what should our slogan be? I quite like your 'lukewarm'.
Of course, now that Remain has lost, it's easy to see the rationale for the Project Fear, turn it up to 11 hyperbole.
They were sh1t-scared they would lose.
They believe that rather than measured, on the one hand debate, they needed to jump both feet first into the emergency budget, your pension is at risk game. Because they thought that to hitting it is so hard would ensure a Remain outcome.
Thing is, there was never then, and continued to be nothing right up to the poll, to be done about immigration. Hence the panic.
Según el sondeo de GAD3 para Abc y Cope, realizado a pie de urna, el PP ganará las elecciones con un 30,4% de los votos que supondrán entre 121 y 124 escaños. Unidos Podemos, con el 24,8% de sufragios obtendrá entre 87 y 89 representantes. El PSOE (21.8%) conseguirá entre 84 y 86 diputados mientras que Ciudadanos (13,2%) se quedará entre 29 y 32.
PP +1.5% Podemos +4% PSOE flat Citizens -1%
Difference caused by Communists going from 5% to 0% as they merged with Podemos. Looks like P + PSOE is short of 175.
So biggest gainers Podemos, biggest losers Citizens, the populist surge across the EU continues!
It's a bit more complicated than that. Podemos merged with the communists (iU), so their combined vote share is actually down. However, because of the multi member PR system in Spain, they'll end up getting a lot more seats.
The smart money in on a rapid negotiation pre Article 50 - one of the interesting things in international politics is how, once they *have* to get something done, how quickly it will happen.
My guess is that we are looking at a second referendum within 2 months to sign off on such a deal. If Remain are smart, they should start pushing for it - and use that support to get NoBrexit as the alternative on the ballot paper to The Deal.
I'd be very surprised if the UK-EU negotiate an agreement 'within 2 months'.
Lol, why 2 months. Hell let's get it done in a couple of weeks! Any advance on that?
One could reach "Heads of Terms" in a couple of weeks, with a full (treaty) agreement taking several years to be finalised.
That's exactly what I mean - a couple of pages. But a couple of pages that actually deal with the issues.
Según el sondeo de GAD3 para Abc y Cope, realizado a pie de urna, el PP ganará las elecciones con un 30,4% de los votos que supondrán entre 121 y 124 escaños. Unidos Podemos, con el 24,8% de sufragios obtendrá entre 87 y 89 representantes. El PSOE (21.8%) conseguirá entre 84 y 86 diputados mientras que Ciudadanos (13,2%) se quedará entre 29 y 32.
PP +1.5% Podemos +4% PSOE flat Citizens -1%
Difference caused by Communists going from 5% to 0% as they merged with Podemos. Looks like P + PSOE is short of 175.
So biggest gainers Podemos, biggest losers Citizens, the populist surge across the EU continues!
It's a bit more complicated than that. Podemos merged with the communists (iU), so their combined vote share is actually down. However, because of the multi member PR system in Spain, they'll end up getting a lot more seats.
Yes but that is the key thing, votes are irrelevant it is seats that count and Podemos will now have even more power in a hung Spanish Parliament
Según el sondeo de GAD3 para Abc y Cope, realizado a pie de urna, el PP ganará las elecciones con un 30,4% de los votos que supondrán entre 121 y 124 escaños. Unidos Podemos, con el 24,8% de sufragios obtendrá entre 87 y 89 representantes. El PSOE (21.8%) conseguirá entre 84 y 86 diputados mientras que Ciudadanos (13,2%) se quedará entre 29 y 32.
PP +1.5% Podemos +4% PSOE flat Citizens -1%
Difference caused by Communists going from 5% to 0% as they merged with Podemos. Looks like P + PSOE is short of 175.
With the regional parties, a left coalition would have an effective majority on those numbers.
But it's common sense. Scotland is not a sovereign power able to join the EU, no more than Catalunya or Corsica are.
And Spain and France (despite the temptation to fuck England) will not want to encourage separatists in those regions by letting them think they can negotiate directly with Brussels.
It's not going to happen. The Spanish in particular will be obstructive.
And then, if and when Brexit happens, and Sindyref 2 is then won, Scotland will have to join Schengen (meaning borders at Berwick), the euro (meaning interest rates set in Frankfurt) and the eurozone (meaning possible tariffs on trade with England). Also national bankruptcy. Inter alia.
I can see the keen emotional desire for Sindy. But the practicalities are still horrible. Arguably they are now worse.
The Spanish (and French) can be as obstructive as they like, if the process can be achieved by QMV (and it clearly can, even if it involves some fudging) then they cannot Veto it. Without a Veto they get over-ruled.
New members have to be approved by every state. France and Spain would have a veto.
I am not saying they would use it. Just that they do have t.
The accession of new members is the one thing that cannot be changed to QMV, because it requires a new treaty signed by all the members.
Transfer of membership to a continuing state can almost certainly be done by QMV.
No it could not, because the EU exists as an entity created by its treaties. A new member - the Kingdom of Scotland - would need to sign the treaties, as would all the existing members. You couldn't transfer it, just as you can't transfer your employment contract to another person.
You've plainly never heard of TUPE. Happens all the time.
You're posting this to take the piss out of it right?
Are you still claiming Nelson's scale was accurate and that no areas voted over 70% Leave?
I will happily concede to you on the point of there being some areas over 70% Leave - I had no idea and I'm delighted.
You will perhaps be able to explain to me how leaving off the 70% part a) makes Fraser's scale misleading, and b) helps his nefarious Brexit sleight of hand con-trick in any way
a) He hasn't "left off" the 70%+ part, he's relabelled it as 60%+ (and so by extension the next coulour down is wrong as that is the actual 60% colour and so on). The scale and the colours on the map are just completely wrong.
The reason it is misleading is that his thesis is based on everywhere being roughly the same. By suggesting the scale tops out at 60% rather than 70% he's trying to make everywhere look like the Leave is in the same narrow band and really the UK has no regional difference in vote.
Given that there are really obviously vast regional differences in the vote - is is a thesis that is unsupportable.
Just as many remainers now wish there was a 60% approval lock (too late), I'll bet many Leavers would angrily claim it is unfair for a second referendum, particularly so soon, but as far as I know there's no rule against it, so if a bill was passed to that effect, the outcome of that one, remain or leave, would be just as democratic as the first.
Two things make me incredibly confident it won't happen.
1) Who's going to pass the bill for it and why? The only justification prior to article 50 I can see is a new offer, and there's every reason to think Leave would win that again, particularly now Scotland has no reason to have better turnout.
2) No offer will ever come to justify it. Europe may have finally realised it needs to bend to demands from the provinces, but it will be focused on those not yet gone, shoring up the stable doors before another one gets out, not bolting after the one that's already gone - that would just mean half a dozen more would escape while they were chasing the first.
"Our job was to persuade you to jump off the cliff. Somebody else should have given you wings"
With best wishes from the Vote Leave Campaign
Or more accurately
"Our job was to persuade you to jump off the cliff. If you didnt get a parachute first it isnt exactly our fault"
In the same way as if CND had persuaded the government of the merits of unilateral disarmament, we would not be expecting them to hand the MoD a new plan to beef up its conventional forces.
You're saying Gove and Johnson are no better statesmen than the leaders of CND?
The quality of statesmanship is immaterial. The lack of ability to implement a plan given the lack of office is the pertinent factor.
The smart money in on a rapid negotiation pre Article 50 - one of the interesting things in international politics is how, once they *have* to get something done, how quickly it will happen.
My guess is that we are looking at a second referendum within 2 months to sign off on such a deal. If Remain are smart, they should start pushing for it - and use that support to get NoBrexit as the alternative on the ballot paper to The Deal.
I'd be very surprised if the UK-EU negotiate an agreement 'within 2 months'.
Lol, why 2 months. Hell let's get it done in a couple of weeks! Any advance on that?
One could reach "Heads of Terms" in a couple of weeks, with a full (treaty) agreement taking several years to be finalised.
That's exactly what I mean - a couple of pages. But a couple of pages that actually deal with the issues.
The 6,000 page version come later.
For some time mooted as the "sticking plaster" approach.
Please be aware that all EU laws, treaties and directives will remain in force until such time that the United Kingdom chooses to abrogate...etc...
And then take as long as they want.
Question is, as has been asked all day (and Pienaar was fantastic this morning), what will the people want, and when? If that is at all a consideration these days for politicians.
The smart money in on a rapid negotiation pre Article 50 - one of the interesting things in international politics is how, once they *have* to get something done, how quickly it will happen.
My guess is that we are looking at a second referendum within 2 months to sign off on such a deal. If Remain are smart, they should start pushing for it - and use that support to get NoBrexit as the alternative on the ballot paper to The Deal.
I'd be very surprised if the UK-EU negotiate an agreement 'within 2 months'.
Lol, why 2 months. Hell let's get it done in a couple of weeks! Any advance on that?
One could reach "Heads of Terms" in a couple of weeks, with a full (treaty) agreement taking several years to be finalised.
That's exactly what I mean - a couple of pages. But a couple of pages that actually deal with the issues.
The 6,000 page version come later.
I'm struggling a bit to understand how the rules, rights and obligations of companies trading between the EU and the UK could seriously continue for several years on the basis of a document encompassing a couple of pages.
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
But what if it's a Hung Parliament? Then how on earth is it actually going to happen? Coalition with LDs will halt it immediately - as LDs will vote against.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
A fudge may be what people on all sides want - but it will be a fudge with us on the outside. There is simply no way it can be stopped at this point: no party is going to destroy itself by ignoring the referendum, not enough MPs will risk everything to demand a second referendum that would probably fail anyway, the EU may make an offer for a good exit settlement, but cannot make an offer that prevents us from leaving as it would undermine them, and even if they did, no government here could accept it without some sort of democratic endorsement to counter the democratic endorsement of the referendum.
I just don't know any more. If the worst economic predictions look like coming true, then a party which repudiated the referendum might actually benefit (especially if they fudged a renegotiation: giving a relieved people a new excuse to vote for status quo ante)
It all depends on the markets, starting tomorrow. It only takes two or three banks to say We're moving for the whole edifice to start collapsing.
Bloody hell.
I DON'T WANT THIS TO HAPPEN. Just to be clear.
That's super-spooky. There was some old bird from Cleethorpes saying exactly the same thing ('cept for the bit about the market, and the banks) on the radio just now.
She voted because she wanted to register a protest but actually, now that she thinks about it, regrets it because she hadn't realised that Leave would actually win.
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
But what if it's a Hung Parliament? Then how on earth is it actually going to happen? Coalition with LDs will halt it immediately - as LDs will vote against.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
A fudge may be what people on all sides want - but it will be a fudge with us on the outside. There is simply no way it can be stopped at this point: no party is going to destroy itself by ignoring the referendum, not enough MPs will risk everything to demand a second referendum that would probably fail anyway, the EU may make an offer for a good exit settlement, but cannot make an offer that prevents us from leaving as it would undermine them, and even if they did, no government here could accept it without some sort of democratic endorsement to counter the democratic endorsement of the referendum.
I just don't know any more. If the worst economic predictions look like coming true, then a party which repudiated the referendum might actually benefit (especially if they fudged a renegotiation: giving a relieved people a new excuse to vote for status quo ante)
Not a party which has any chance of forming a government - we all saw the chart of Leave in some Labour heartlands. It's at such a level not even the sky falling in will change that, so Labour simply cannot repudiate the result, only try for a fudge close to the EU but not of it. The Tories may have plenty of Remain voters, but they aren't winning power on repudiating the referendum either, and UKIP are bound to pick up some seats, even under FPTP, if either tries it.
So unless the LDs pick up 300 seats in a snap GE (and if that looked even possible, the others would not trigger a GE), I'd bet the entirety of my referendum winnings (£150, on yeah, big monies) on there not being a row back, no matter how bad it gets.
The smart money in on a rapid negotiation pre Article 50 - one of the interesting things in international politics is how, once they *have* to get something done, how quickly it will happen.
My guess is that we are looking at a second referendum within 2 months to sign off on such a deal. If Remain are smart, they should start pushing for it - and use that support to get NoBrexit as the alternative on the ballot paper to The Deal.
I'd be very surprised if the UK-EU negotiate an agreement 'within 2 months'.
Lol, why 2 months. Hell let's get it done in a couple of weeks! Any advance on that?
One could reach "Heads of Terms" in a couple of weeks, with a full (treaty) agreement taking several years to be finalised.
That's exactly what I mean - a couple of pages. But a couple of pages that actually deal with the issues.
The 6,000 page version come later.
For some time mooted as the "sticking plaster" approach.
Please be aware that all EU laws, treaties and directives will remain in force until such time that the United Kingdom chooses to abrogate...etc...
And then take as long as they want.
Question is, as has been asked all day (and Pienaar was fantastic this morning), what will the people want, and when? If that is at all a consideration these days for politicians.
It is not in the interest of -
1) The EU 2) The UK 3) pretty much anyone else
for this to drag on for x years. Hence the overwhelming pressure to come to a deal sooner than later on all sides.
Why do people assume that a referendum means everyone is entirely polarised? I voted Leave, but it was a very close call. I find myself in very close agreement with almost all my friends about the issues, and around 50% of those friends voted Remain.
Anyone that finds themselves thinking that this was 100% right or 100% wrong probably needs to have a bit of a quiet period of thought.
We're often better than our politicians - sometimes much, much better.
Yes, very much agree with you. I don't think that all Remainers are quisling traitorous pig dogs, nor are all Leavers noble democrats. This is real life, not fucking Star Wars.
We'll all have our red lines that made us choose one side over another; immigration, sovereignty, the economy or whatever.
I'm a lukewarm Leaver. While I've felt for a long time that the EU has lost its way, it wouldn't have taken much to make me a lukewarm Remainer. It's a pity that it's all become so partisan and vitriolic.
Decent club of two then
I sort of want the badge saying 'quisling traitorous pig-dog' mind you.
In our club of two, supposing we wanted to march on Westminster, what should our slogan be? I quite like your 'lukewarm'.
What do we want? - Sensible policies with wide ranging support! When do we want it? - Within a reasonable timeframe!
However any old non-club-of-two person could say such a thing. Every single member of the club-of-two has really offered much more.
Según el sondeo de GAD3 para Abc y Cope, realizado a pie de urna, el PP ganará las elecciones con un 30,4% de los votos que supondrán entre 121 y 124 escaños. Unidos Podemos, con el 24,8% de sufragios obtendrá entre 87 y 89 representantes. El PSOE (21.8%) conseguirá entre 84 y 86 diputados mientras que Ciudadanos (13,2%) se quedará entre 29 y 32.
PP +1.5% Podemos +4% PSOE flat Citizens -1%
Difference caused by Communists going from 5% to 0% as they merged with Podemos. Looks like P + PSOE is short of 175.
With the regional parties, a left coalition would have an effective majority on those numbers.
Must be the end for Rajoy.
How many more elections can they have until the ruling party calls it quits ?
The smart money in on a rapid negotiation pre Article 50 - one of the interesting things in international politics is how, once they *have* to get something done, how quickly it will happen.
My guess is that we are looking at a second referendum within 2 months to sign off on such a deal. If Remain are smart, they should start pushing for it - and use that support to get NoBrexit as the alternative on the ballot paper to The Deal.
I'd be very surprised if the UK-EU negotiate an agreement 'within 2 months'.
Lol, why 2 months. Hell let's get it done in a couple of weeks! Any advance on that?
One could reach "Heads of Terms" in a couple of weeks, with a full (treaty) agreement taking several years to be finalised.
That's exactly what I mean - a couple of pages. But a couple of pages that actually deal with the issues.
The 6,000 page version come later.
I'm struggling a bit to understand how the rules, rights and obligations of companies trading between the EU and the UK could seriously continue for several years on the basis of a document encompassing a couple of pages.
The point is to create the process for the transition from UK (in EU) to UK (something else). Once that roadmap has been published, most of the uncertainty goes away.
I made cash on the Republican Nomination market and I was considering dabbling in the Con Leadership market but I am not touching a market so irrational even with a ten foot Donald Trump branded barge pole.
The smart money in on a rapid negotiation pre Article 50 - one of the interesting things in international politics is how, once they *have* to get something done, how quickly it will happen.
My guess is that we are looking at a second referendum within 2 months to sign off on such a deal. If Remain are smart, they should start pushing for it - and use that support to get NoBrexit as the alternative on the ballot paper to The Deal.
I'd be very surprised if the UK-EU negotiate an agreement 'within 2 months'.
Lol, why 2 months. Hell let's get it done in a couple of weeks! Any advance on that?
One could reach "Heads of Terms" in a couple of weeks, with a full (treaty) agreement taking several years to be finalised.
That's exactly what I mean - a couple of pages. But a couple of pages that actually deal with the issues.
The 6,000 page version come later.
For some time mooted as the "sticking plaster" approach.
Please be aware that all EU laws, treaties and directives will remain in force until such time that the United Kingdom chooses to abrogate...etc...
And then take as long as they want.
Question is, as has been asked all day (and Pienaar was fantastic this morning), what will the people want, and when? If that is at all a consideration these days for politicians.
It is not in the interest of -
1) The EU 2) The UK 3) pretty much anyone else
for this to drag on for x years. Hence the overwhelming pressure to come to a deal sooner than later on all sides.
This is an epochal decision we have made. As every Leaver has made clear, the short term economic pain is a price worth paying because in the longer term we will benefit.
I don't see the hurry given that we must now set our relationship with the EU for the next 50-100 years.
They want us to get a move on. Well good for them. We have just had an advisory referendum, it's up to us what we do next.
Yes, to be fair I probably overseasoned that haggis (I have been on this site for five hours now, I am getting tired). SOME Irish pundits have discussed IREXIT, but only to dismiss it.
What is certainly true is that the Irish are freaked by the economic implications of Brexit. This fear and doubt would be quintuple for Scexit.
Yesterday, I (in my capacity as a fund manager) recieved stuff from Ireland about how Dublin is a fantastic place to relocate my business to. Low taxes, low rent, in the single market for financial services.
I think they're going to take a swing at London, so I can't see them leaving.
Nissan, Honda, Toyota and other Japanese and other non-EU manufacturers could also part relocate there taking some of their skilled workers with them.
"Our job was to persuade you to jump off the cliff. Somebody else should have given you wings"
With best wishes from the Vote Leave Campaign
Or more accurately
"Our job was to persuade you to jump off the cliff. If you didnt get a parachute first it isnt exactly our fault"
In the same way as if CND had persuaded the government of the merits of unilateral disarmament, we would not be expecting them to hand the MoD a new plan to beef up its conventional forces.
You're saying Gove and Johnson are no better statesmen than the leaders of CND?
The quality of statesmanship is immaterial. The lack of ability to implement a plan given the lack of office is the pertinent factor.
You don't have to be able to implement a plan to plan a plan. There's a clue in the word. It's what happens at every general election. All parties plan a plan, the winning party gets to implement their plan.
The unwillingness of Leave to take responsibility for the damage they've caused is beyond breathtaking.
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
But what if it's a Hung Parliament? Then how on earth is it actually going to happen? Coalition with LDs will halt it immediately - as LDs will vote against.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
A fudge may be what people on all sides want - but it will be a fudge with us on the outside. There is simply no way it can be stopped at this point: no party is going to destroy itself by ignoring the referendum, not enough MPs will risk everything to demand a second referendum that would probably fail anyway, the EU may make an offer for a good exit settlement, but cannot make an offer that prevents us from leaving as it would undermine them, and even if they did, no government here could accept it without some sort of democratic endorsement to counter the democratic endorsement of the referendum.
I jus
She voted because she wanted to register a protest but actually, now that she thinks about it, regrets it because she hadn't realised that Leave would actually win.
That's unfortunate for her, but if people learn not to treat their votes as mere protests that will be a good thing. Besides, plenty of people who don't usually vote turned out, one theory being for once they knew their votes would make a difference, so not much excuse if others did not realise it could. And of course it won't be hundreds of thousands (though if in 12 months everything has gone to hell, it will become millions who claim that).
What we need is for Osborne to stride out tomorrow, holding aloft his fully-worked-out early-stage Brexit plan. Yes, many Leavers will cry that it's no longer his business and he should butt out, but it's clear everyone else is terrified of making the first move. Come on, George, your day of destiny awaits...
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
But what if it's a Hung Parliament? Then how on earth is it actually going to happen? Coalition with LDs will halt it immediately - as LDs will vote against.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
A fudge may be what people on all sides want - but it will be a fudge with us on the outside. There is simply no way it can be stopped at this point: no party is going to destroy itself by ignoring the referendum, not enough MPs will risk everything to demand a second referendum that would probably fail anyway, the EU may make an offer for a good exit settlement, but cannot make an offer that prevents us from leaving as it would undermine them, and even if they did, no government here could accept it without some sort of democratic endorsement to counter the democratic endorsement of the referendum.
I just don't know any more. If the worst economic predictions look like coming true, then a party which repudiated the referendum might actually benefit (especially if they fudged a renegotiation: giving a relieved people a new excuse to vote for status quo ante)
It all depends on the markets, starting tomorrow. It only takes two or three banks to say We're moving for the whole edifice to start collapsing.
Bloody hell.
I DON'T WANT THIS TO HAPPEN. Just to be clear.
So it would be a LD landslide then and Farron would storm into No 10! Hmmm unless the £ falls to the levels of the Zimbabwean dollar and unemployment reaches 90% I will believe it when I see it and even then it would probably be UKIP or another nationalist party which benefits the most
@DouglasCarswell: #VoteLeave: I am with @Vote_leave because we should stop sending £350 million per week to Brussels, and spend our money on our NHS instead.
The smart money in on a rapid negotiation pre Article 50 - one of the interesting things in international politics is how, once they *have* to get something done, how quickly it will happen.
My guess is that we are looking at a second referendum within 2 months to sign off on such a deal. If Remain are smart, they should start pushing for it - and use that support to get NoBrexit as the alternative on the ballot paper to The Deal.
I'd be very surprised if the UK-EU negotiate an agreement 'within 2 months'.
Lol, why 2 months. Hell let's get it done in a couple of weeks! Any advance on that?
One could reach "Heads of Terms" in a couple of weeks, with a full (treaty) agreement taking several years to be finalised.
That's exactly what I mean - a couple of pages. But a couple of pages that actually deal with the issues.
The 6,000 page version come later.
I'm struggling a bit to understand how the rules, rights and obligations of companies trading between the EU and the UK could seriously continue for several years on the basis of a document encompassing a couple of pages.
The point is to create the process for the transition from UK (in EU) to UK (something else). Once that roadmap has been published, most of the uncertainty goes away.
Really? So does everyone have to educatedly guess exactly what the 6,000 page document is going to say on the basis that it might be applied retrospectively? Or do you mean that all EU rules remain in place until such time as they don't?
Bill Cash disowning migration numbers coming down dramatically and £350m claim.. nothing to do with him (on R5L) he was campaigning about other more important issues for leaving
What we need is for Osborne to stride out tomorrow, holding aloft his fully-worked-out early-stage Brexit plan. Yes, many Leavers will cry that it's no longer his business and he should butt out, but it's clear everyone else is terrified of making the first move. Come on, George, your day of destiny awaits...
Of course they would be wrong. It is entirely hls business and I would love to see it happen.
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
But what if it's a Hung Parliament? Then how on earth is it actually going to happen? Coalition with LDs will halt it immediately - as LDs will vote against.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
A fudge may be what people on all sides want - but it will be a fudge with us on the outside. There is simply no way it can be stopped at this point: no party is going to destroy itself by ignoring the referendum, not enough MPs will risk everything to demand a second referendum that would probably fail anyway, the EU may make an offer for a good exit settlement, but cannot make an offer that prevents us from leaving as it would undermine them, and even if they did, no government here could accept it without some sort of democratic endorsement to counter the democratic endorsement of the referendum.
I jus
She voted because she wanted to register a protest but actually, now that she thinks about it, regrets it because she hadn't realised that Leave would actually win.
That's unfortunate for her, but if people learn not to treat their votes as mere protests that will be a good thing. Besides, plenty of people who don't usually vote turned out, one theory being for once they knew their votes would make a difference, so not much excuse if others did not realise it could. And of course it won't be hundreds of thousands (though if in 12 months everything has gone to hell, it will become millions who claim that).
I was just interested to see that she was chanelling @SeanT. or vice versa.
Sean uses more words, of course, but I agree with you. Teaches them both a lesson to think before they vote.
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
But what if it's a Hung Parliament? Then how on earth is it actually going to happen? Coalition with LDs will halt it immediately - as LDs will vote against.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
A fudge may be what people on all sides want - but it will be a fudge with us on the outside. There is simply no way it can be stopped at this point: no party is going to destroy itself by ignoring the referendum, not enough MPs will risk everything to demand a second referendum that would probably fail anyway, the EU may make an offer for a good exit settlement, but cannot make an offer that prevents us from leaving as it would undermine them, and even if they did, no government here could accept it without some sort of democratic endorsement to counter the democratic endorsement of the referendum.
I just don't know any more. If the worst economic predictions look like coming true, then a party which repudiated the referendum might actually benefit (especially if they fudged a renegotiation: giving a relieved people a new excuse to vote for status quo ante)
It all depends on the markets, starting tomorrow. It only takes two or three banks to say We're moving for the whole edifice to start collapsing.
Bloody hell.
I DON'T WANT THIS TO HAPPEN. Just to be clear.
That's super-spooky. There was some old bird from Cleethorpes saying exactly the same thing ('cept for the bit about the market, and the banks) on the radio just now.
She voted because she wanted to register a protest but actually, now that she thinks about it, regrets it because she hadn't realised that Leave would actually win.
What shocks me is that the stuff experts said might happen really might happen. How does that work?
Well, it could be argued that Scotland 'foisted' Labour governments on England though Im not sure you could call them left wing. Thats the thing about being part of a 300 year union involving 4 countries though. You have a large say in whats going on. You lose some but you also win some. Not so easy being a wee fella among 27+.
Labour had a majority of MPs in England in 1997 and 2001.
And in 2005.
But in 2005 a minority of English votes..
Well, Labour have never achieved a majority of English (or Scottish) votes.
@DouglasCarswell: #VoteLeave: I am with @Vote_leave because we should stop sending £350 million per week to Brussels, and spend our money on our NHS instead.
Isn't it lovely to think that in a few month's time we can abandon euroscepticism. It can become a thing of the past. People who love Europe can just love it, people who prefer Bognor can just do that, and whether someone is a chauvanist bigot can be judged on whether they're a chauvanist bigot. Europe will be Europe, and it will still be there with all its beauty to be enjoyed and appreciated, and Britain will be Britain. Truly a wonderful prospect.
Bill Cash disowning migration numbers coming down dramatically and £350m claim.. nothing to do with him (on R5L) he was campaigning about other more important issues for leaving
The right to buy malformed vegetables by the pound?
Not to go all 'everyone's the same' but there's a lot of self delusion going on in the commentariat, even more than usual. Commentators criticising the lack of respect for democracy of Remainers, even though we know some Leavers stated before the vote if it was close it should be rerun. Remainers faint with anger some Leavers are giving Remainers short shrift, telling them bluntly it's over and its time to move on, though we know Remainers would have been similarly insistent that it was over, should they have one.
Bill Cash disowning migration numbers coming down dramatically and £350m claim.. nothing to do with him (on R5L) he was campaigning about other more important issues for leaving
Not to go all 'everyone's the same' but there's a lot of self delusion going on in the commentariat, even more than usual. Commentators criticising the lack of respect for democracy of Remainers, even though we know some Leavers stated before the vote if it was close it should be rerun. Remainers faint with anger some Leavers are giving Remainers short shrift, telling them bluntly it's over and its time to move on, though we know Remainers would have been similarly insistent that it was over, should they have one.
It is over. We can't move on until someone steps up to tell people what they want to move to. As long as promise after promise is broken by politicians who then rush for purdah / Twitter holidays, crisis will endure.
What we need is for Osborne to stride out tomorrow, holding aloft his fully-worked-out early-stage Brexit plan. Yes, many Leavers will cry that it's no longer his business and he should butt out, but it's clear everyone else is terrified of making the first move. Come on, George, your day of destiny awaits...
If he is as canny as I think he is, he will have been up all weekend and he and his team will have a fully-worked out such plan and will present it (will ofc have the backing of the, ahem, PM).
Cut off at the knees those who throw their hands up and say "the govt didn't do any planning", cuts off at the knees those who say "it's up to the govt.", cuts off at the knees those who say "we need a Brexiteer in charge".
Isn't it lovely to think that in a few month's time we can abandon euroscepticism. It can become a thing of the past. People who love Europe can just love it, people who prefer Bognor can just do that, and whether someone is a chauvanist bigot can be judged on whether they're a chauvanist bigot. Europe will be Europe, and it will still be there with all its beauty to be enjoyed and appreciated, and Britain will be Britain. Truly a wonderful prospect.
Not to go all 'everyone's the same' but there's a lot of self delusion going on in the commentariat, even more than usual. Commentators criticising the lack of respect for democracy of Remainers, even though we know some Leavers stated before the vote if it was close it should be rerun. Remainers faint with anger some Leavers are giving Remainers short shrift, telling them bluntly it's over and its time to move on, though we know Remainers would have been similarly insistent that it was over, should they have one.
In summary, the human condition writ large. Some people on both sides being giant arseholes, amplified by social media.
Bill Cash disowning migration numbers coming down dramatically and £350m claim.. nothing to do with him (on R5L) he was campaigning about other more important issues for leaving
The right to buy malformed vegetables by the pound?
Now now, that's no way to talk about Remain voters from EU-funded organisations.
Comments
PP 117-121
Podemos 91-95
PSOE 81-85
You will perhaps be able to explain to me how leaving off the 70% part
a) makes Fraser's scale misleading, and
b) helps his nefarious Brexit sleight of hand con-trick in any way
I sort of want the badge saying 'quisling traitorous pig-dog' mind you.
In our club of two, supposing we wanted to march on Westminster, what should our slogan be? I quite like your 'lukewarm'.
You're wasting your time, the Remainers are still traumatised and can't think straight. They'll probably need help to undress for bed for another couple of days. Give then time before using long words.
PP +1.5%
Podemos +4%
PSOE flat
Citizens -1%
Difference caused by Communists going from 5% to 0% as they merged with Podemos.
Looks like P + PSOE is short of 175.
I feel we have a movement here
"I wouldn't trade places with Jeremy Corbyn right now for all the whiskey in Ireland!"
So many names have been cropping up today and I've no idea who most of them are...
"Time travel"
"When do we want it?"
"Who cares!!!!"
PP 28.4
Podemos 25.6
PS 22
Ciudadanos 11.7
Anyone else with us? (party of two needs third - sounds very Westminster)
Podemos 91-95
PS 81-85
Cs 26-30
PP 121-124
Podemos 87-89
PS 84-86
Cs 29-32
When do we want it? - Within a reasonable timeframe!
They were sh1t-scared they would lose.
They believe that rather than measured, on the one hand debate, they needed to jump both feet first into the emergency budget, your pension is at risk game. Because they thought that to hitting it is so hard would ensure a Remain outcome.
Thing is, there was never then, and continued to be nothing right up to the poll, to be done about immigration. Hence the panic.
The 6,000 page version come later.
Must be the end for Rajoy.
The reason it is misleading is that his thesis is based on everywhere being roughly the same. By suggesting the scale tops out at 60% rather than 70% he's trying to make everywhere look like the Leave is in the same narrow band and really the UK has no regional difference in vote.
Given that there are really obviously vast regional differences in the vote - is is a thesis that is unsupportable.
Two things make me incredibly confident it won't happen.
1) Who's going to pass the bill for it and why? The only justification prior to article 50 I can see is a new offer, and there's every reason to think Leave would win that again, particularly now Scotland has no reason to have better turnout.
2) No offer will ever come to justify it. Europe may have finally realised it needs to bend to demands from the provinces, but it will be focused on those not yet gone, shoring up the stable doors before another one gets out, not bolting after the one that's already gone - that would just mean half a dozen more would escape while they were chasing the first.
Official results (available from 8pm UK once Canaries close):
http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es
TV: http://www.rtve.es/noticias/mas-24/
Possibility of a Podemos-PSOE govt on the exit polls, but may depend on nationalist parties (eg ERC in Catalonia with 11-12 seats).
PSOE is swing party for forming govt as grand coalition with PP possible mathematically (not sure about politically!)
PP + C's look well short currently.
Regardless of the result, Thursday night was AMAZING from a betting point of view, incredibly exciting. UK politics totally up in the air at present.
Please be aware that all EU laws, treaties and directives will remain in force until such time that the United Kingdom chooses to abrogate...etc...
And then take as long as they want.
Question is, as has been asked all day (and Pienaar was fantastic this morning), what will the people want, and when? If that is at all a consideration these days for politicians.
She voted because she wanted to register a protest but actually, now that she thinks about it, regrets it because she hadn't realised that Leave would actually win.
So unless the LDs pick up 300 seats in a snap GE (and if that looked even possible, the others would not trigger a GE), I'd bet the entirety of my referendum winnings (£150, on yeah, big monies) on there not being a row back, no matter how bad it gets.
1) The EU
2) The UK
3) pretty much anyone else
for this to drag on for x years. Hence the overwhelming pressure to come to a deal sooner than later on all sides.
But isn't the current situation the one that Gove and Boris pleaded with Cameron to implement?
Application rejected!
Does Eton put up portraits or statues of all the PMs, UK and foreign, that have been students, does anyone know?
https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/747125967534067712
I don't see the hurry given that we must now set our relationship with the EU for the next 50-100 years.
They want us to get a move on. Well good for them. We have just had an advisory referendum, it's up to us what we do next.
The unwillingness of Leave to take responsibility for the damage they've caused is beyond breathtaking.
Quick nurse, oxygen.
https://twitter.com/thespainreport/status/747131990177095680
@DouglasCarswell: #VoteLeave: I am with @Vote_leave because we should stop sending £350 million per week to Brussels, and spend our money on our NHS instead.
Sean uses more words, of course, but I agree with you. Teaches them both a lesson to think before they vote.
How is he going to fill 11+ vacancies? Who is going to serve?
Cut off at the knees those who throw their hands up and say "the govt didn't do any planning", cuts off at the knees those who say "it's up to the govt.", cuts off at the knees those who say "we need a Brexiteer in charge".