Suppose it transpired there had been some massive blunder with the vote and it had to be redone - say, all the Greater Manchester ballot boxes were found in a field. Who would win this time, considering all the immigration stuff has now been binned?
It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.
A "credible alternative" who just catastrophically misread the public mood on the EU?
The public mood was 50:50 (ok 3.8% to one side).
But not among their voters in the North. I can see Ukip gains across the north if Labour stands to stay in the EU at the General Election.
Some on here predicted UKIP with 100+ MPs at the last election. Labour may well have a different leader soon. I think that you are mistaken.
We are through the looking glass. The people have just voted to leave the EU. If Labour campaigns to ignore that vote, Ukip could clean up.
Much to my disappointment Ukip won't clean up, all Labour have to do is pledge to manage immigration and they'll win the GE, nothing could be more straightforward.
It seems to me that the only possible outcome here is a Labour split.
How about a new political party to take on Labour in the North at the next GE? There's a market for it.
I don't think the Labour of Watson, Balls, Cooper, Hunt et al fit the bill - they can't reverse-ferret with any credibility. Nor do I think UKIP could fill it. Open-door Corbyn certainly doesn't. Better to create a new Party and effectively merge Old Labour and northern UKIP?
Lots of possibilities. I imagine a centrist coalition that give up on the Corbynites would be the line (possibly absorbing a handful of Tories and possibly a LD) - a sort of SDP2.
However you're entirely correct that the split may well not be along traditional party lines.
Most extraordinary and unpredictable day in British politics for a long time. But what is already developing under the radar, in terms of economic, international, and geo-strategic changes is actually, already much more important.
Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?
Two issues.
1) Even if we can delay declaring article 50 until October, can it be delayed until after a snap GE? Seems doubtful, and once declared there's no turning back was my understanding.
2) Labour will not stand on continuing membership.It might play well in about half their seats (although perhaps not - not all remainers will be on board), but it would be devastating in the other half. Their best bet is to pledge to try for as close as we can get, short of membership. Greens could do so, and if Labour ditch Corbyn they might regain some of the far left vote. LDs have little to lose but simply are not going to win in most places - after all, most places voted Leave in any case. And the SNP, well, do they really want to stop the negotiations? They are on the path they want now.
I think we could be heading to a new party that will oppose leaving the EU. I reckon if the EU think this new party has a chance of winning, they'll hold fire and give them a chance.
"Hold off on the Brexit negotiations Jean-Claude, the LD are about to go into government with the New European Democrats"
More seriously, I cannot see that happening. Remain actually wasn't that far off in places I thought they would be, here in Wiltshire they were on 48.5%, but are the LDs or Lab or a new party really going to win a seat here, over all tribal loyalties, because the EU is so vital to them, even though they voted Leave? A new party isn't going to win on city seats alone, and they probably wouldn't win those either.
I'm thinking some of the Tories will join the new party.
I don't know that Ken Clarke on his own will be that effective.
186 backed Bremain. They will try to get one of their guys or girls as PM. If they fail, some of them may leave the Tory Party. We are on the edge of a complete realignment of politics in England and Wales.
That was my point - I know it's not mandatory, but there's no viable route to an anti-Brexit group winning a GE anyway. Even if they felt they could justify calling one, which parties are going to stand on a basis of ignoring the referendum?
Con - No LD - Looks like it Lab - No, too divided Greens - Possibly PC - who cares DUP - No UUP - IDK, probably not SDLP - No UKIP - No SNP and SF - why would they, they think this will get them what they want
Unless we literally descend into anarchy, public opinion won't change quickly enough for an anti-Brexit party to win a GE before article 50 is declared, and after it is the question becomes rejoining not 'not leaving' which is a less attractive option.
I would question the mandate of a "stay in the EU" coalition. A general election is not a referendum on a particular issue, it is a vote on a broad programme of government. You cannot reasonably assume that every single one of your voters has supported every plank of your policy programme.
The neverendum scenario is preferable to the quagmire this would create.
Er I and many other people will riot if they keep us in the E.U since democracy didn't work.
Our voters came out in droves for Brexit, so lets get rid of Jeremy for not backing the EU enough...???
It's got nothing to do with the EU - it's about being able to relate. Voters (apart from London) can't relate to Corbyn; add in the fact that he's totally incompetent and you have a recipe for disaster. The problem for Labour is who can replace him? - the cupboard is bare. Laugh out loud if you must but the only person seems to be Ed Milliband - he is a giant compared to Corbyn.
That was my point - I know it's not mandatory, but there's no viable route to an anti-Brexit group winning a GE anyway. Even if they felt they could justify calling one, which parties are going to stand on a basis of ignoring the referendum?
Con - No LD - Looks like it Lab - No, too divided Greens - Possibly PC - who cares DUP - No UUP - IDK, probably not SDLP - No UKIP - No SNP and SF - why would they, they think this will get them what they want
Unless we literally descend into anarchy, public opinion won't change quickly enough for an anti-Brexit party to win a GE before article 50 is declared, and after it is the question becomes rejoining not 'not leaving' which is a less attractive option.
I would question the mandate of a "stay in the EU" coalition. A general election is not a referendum on a particular issue, it is a vote on a broad programme of government. You cannot reasonably assume that every single one of your voters has supported every plank of your policy programme.
The neverendum scenario is preferable to the quagmire this would create.
I have a theory that a significant enough minority of those voting for Brexit will have seen the two Leave lies being owned up to (£350m/wk to NHS and we can reduce immigration) and will have changed their minds. Others will have thought that Remain would win and cast a protest vote (wipe the smile off their faces). Given a few more weeks of bad news to add to the possibility of losing Scotland from the UK and the announcement of planned job losses and the sentiment of the public may well have swung by more than the 1.9% necessary.
Away this weekend but wow! Jezza should threaten the nuclear option and mention events on a certain road that would bring down the tory and labour parties and many mp's. My friend told him and his office all about it shortly after he became leader. Go on Jezza!
What's all this about?
Lizards are forming shell companies in Finchley rd.
I hope Jezza takes Hunchmans advice. He would be a laughing stock.
If there's another Scottish Indyref, and if bits of Scotland - say the residents of an Edinburgh street have voted to stay then surely the SNPs logic means that they should be allowed to have their own little referendum to stay in the UK.
It seems many people have forgotten what a democracy is.
I imagine the SNP argument would be on the lines that while we are currently one state, we are one with clear and formal national subdivisions, and that their subdivision voted clearly in one way. Edinburgh is not an accepted 'separate but within' part of the scottish state.
Although that wouldn't explain why the SNP were playing up the London argument, as that is not a separate entity.
That was my point - I know it's not mandatory, but there's no viable route to an anti-Brexit group winning a GE anyway. Even if they felt they could justify calling one, which parties are going to stand on a basis of ignoring the referendum?
Con - No LD - Looks like it Lab - No, too divided Greens - Possibly PC - who cares DUP - No UUP - IDK, probably not SDLP - No UKIP - No SNP and SF - why would they, they think this will get them what they want
Unless we literally descend into anarchy, public opinion won't change quickly enough for an anti-Brexit party to win a GE before article 50 is declared, and after it is the question becomes rejoining not 'not leaving' which is a less attractive option.
I would question the mandate of a "stay in the EU" coalition. A general election is not a referendum on a particular issue, it is a vote on a broad programme of government. You cannot reasonably assume that every single one of your voters has supported every plank of your policy programme.
That is true, however if the election was fought on the basis that that issue was the most crucial, I think the mandate is there (not that I think it will happen). If the SNP had said 'we will declare independence unilaterally if we win the next scottish elections', they;d be within their rights to say they got backing for it, and someone saying 'I only voted for them due to the health policy' would not prevent that.
If you vote for a party you are giving at least tacit support to their programme, since they cannot know exactly which bits people supported and which they did not. Electors have to take that into account and decide if the possibility of part x of the programme happening is worth part y happening - they cannot claim it unfair.
If a 'stay in' party won the election, no one who voted for them with that as their promise could protest them doing so.
Away this weekend but wow! Jezza should threaten the nuclear option and mention events on a certain road that would bring down the tory and labour parties and many mp's. My friend told him and his office all about it shortly after he became leader. Go on Jezza!
What's all this about?
Hunchman isn't allowed to say, the allegations can get Mike in trouble.
People shouldn't underestimate FPTP. Pro-EU parties just need to ensure they don't split the vote.
And the Tories (if led by a genuine Leaver) need to align with Ukip. They must not contest seats with each other.
Seriously? The tories have spent years calling us names, no way will Ukip prop them up, our voters would skin us alive.
If it looks like the Tories have been purged of Remain supporters, and it was clear that this General Election was a rerun of the referendum, I think we would do what was in the country's interest.
Our voters came out in droves for Brexit, so lets get rid of Jeremy for not backing the EU enough...???
I think that about 60% of Labour voters were for Remain.
If Labour lose the 40% then it's Finis Labour. They won't win enough votes in Surrey, Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Cotswolds to compensate.
Viz., corruption in politics. There are numerous investigations (mainly Tory seats) into election expenses. Could this be a curveball that comes back to snack Boris and co in the face?
That was my point - I know it's not mandatory, but there's no viable route to an anti-Brexit group winning a GE anyway. Even if they felt they could justify calling one, which parties are going to stand on a basis of ignoring the referendum?
Con - No LD - Looks like it Lab - No, too divided Greens - Possibly PC - who cares DUP - No UUP - IDK, probably not SDLP - No UKIP - No SNP and SF - why would they, they think this will get them what they want
Unless we literally descend into anarchy, public opinion won't change quickly enough for an anti-Brexit party to win a GE before article 50 is declared, and after it is the question becomes rejoining not 'not leaving' which is a less attractive option.
I would question the mandate of a "stay in the EU" coalition. A general election is not a referendum on a particular issue, it is a vote on a broad programme of government. You cannot reasonably assume that every single one of your voters has supported every plank of your policy programme.
The neverendum scenario is preferable to the quagmire this would create.
Er I and many other people will riot if they keep us in the E.U since democracy didn't work.
One would have to say I saw many more threats of rioting and unrest from the Leave side before the vote than anything from the Remainers. There is no rioting at the moment, or threats of it.
That was my point - I know it's not mandatory, but there's no viable route to an anti-Brexit group winning a GE anyway. Even if they felt they could justify calling one, which parties are going to stand on a basis of ignoring the referendum?
Con - No LD - Looks like it Lab - No, too divided Greens - Possibly PC - who cares DUP - No UUP - IDK, probably not SDLP - No UKIP - No SNP and SF - why would they, they think this will get them what they want
Unless we literally descend into anarchy, public opinion won't change quickly enough for an anti-Brexit party to win a GE before article 50 is declared, and after it is the question becomes rejoining not 'not leaving' which is a less attractive option.
I would question the mandate of a "stay in the EU" coalition. A general election is not a referendum on a particular issue, it is a vote on a broad programme of government. You cannot reasonably assume that every single one of your voters has supported every plank of your policy programme.
The neverendum scenario is preferable to the quagmire this would create.
I have a theory that a significant enough minority of those voting for Brexit will have seen the two Leave lies being owned up to (£350m/wk to NHS and we can reduce immigration) and will have changed their minds. Others will have thought that Remain would win and cast a protest vote (wipe the smile off their faces). Given a few more weeks of bad news to add to the possibility of losing Scotland from the UK and the announcement of planned job losses and the sentiment of the public may well have swung by more than the 1.9% necessary.
You may be right - but the country would still be hideously divided - and it would feed an enormous pool of resentment in some of the strong Leave areas. The only way forward I can see is to get best deal possible as quickly as possible - otherwise the danger is we could see economic carnage on a massive scale that will leave us all as losers.
That was my point - I know it's not mandatory, but there's no viable route to an anti-Brexit group winning a GE anyway. Even if they felt they could justify calling one, which parties are going to stand on a basis of ignoring the referendum?
Con - No LD - Looks like it Lab - No, too divided Greens - Possibly PC - who cares DUP - No UUP - IDK, probably not SDLP - No UKIP - No SNP and SF - why would they, they think this will get them what they want
Unless we literally descend into anarchy, public opinion won't change quickly enough for an anti-Brexit party to win a GE before article 50 is declared, and after it is the question becomes rejoining not 'not leaving' which is a less attractive option.
I would question the mandate of a "stay in the EU" coalition. A general election is not a referendum on a particular issue, it is a vote on a broad programme of government. You cannot reasonably assume that every single one of your voters has supported every plank of your policy programme.
The neverendum scenario is preferable to the quagmire this would create.
Er I and many other people will riot if they keep us in the E.U since democracy didn't work.
Well not really - if a democratic vote is overturned through democratic means, it's not proof democracy doesn't work. People are allowed to change their minds.
I agree there would possibly be riots, or at the least an apoplectic reaction, if a GE returned a 'stay in' government, or a second referendum were held and Remain won, but it isn't anti-democratic if democratic means were used to halt the first democratic choice. We democratically chose a Tory government a year ago, it isn't anti-democratic if we go to a GE this year and vote in someone else.
It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.
A "credible alternative" who just catastrophically misread the public mood on the EU?
The public mood was 50:50 (ok 3.8% to one side).
But not among their voters in the North. I can see Ukip gains across the north if Labour stands to stay in the EU at the General Election.
Some on here predicted UKIP with 100+ MPs at the last election. Labour may well have a different leader soon. I think that you are mistaken.
Times have changed. If Labour runs on a manifesto commitment to overturn the Referendum, the outcome across Northern working class towns will be carnage.
Not so sure, an election is different to a referendum. I can see reversion to sheep mode.
It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.
A "credible alternative" who just catastrophically misread the public mood on the EU?
The public mood was 50:50 (ok 3.8% to one side).
But not among their voters in the North. I can see Ukip gains across the north if Labour stands to stay in the EU at the General Election.
Some on here predicted UKIP with 100+ MPs at the last election. Labour may well have a different leader soon. I think that you are mistaken.
We are through the looking glass. The people have just voted to leave the EU. If Labour campaigns to ignore that vote, Ukip could clean up.
I think a Leave-lead Conservative Party would be the Leave-vote magnet.
None of them want to either leave the EU or stop immigration though. It's UKIP or bust.
We haven't seen the UK-EU Leave negotiations yet.
Mr Hannan's TV appearances have suggested he doesn't see immigration control as a priority, but he's not the decision maker.
We don't yet know who the leader of the Conservative Party will be, who will be leading negotiations for the UK. Lets wait to hear from them before we assume Vote Leave are all finks.
People shouldn't underestimate FPTP. Pro-EU parties just need to ensure they don't split the vote.
And the Tories (if led by a genuine Leaver) need to align with Ukip. They must not contest seats with each other.
Seriously? The tories have spent years calling us names, no way will Ukip prop them up, our voters would skin us alive.
If it looks like the Tories have been purged of Remain supporters, and it was clear that this General Election was a rerun of the referendum, I think we would do what was in the country's interest.
Disgruntled labour voters might vote Ukip, if they thought that Ukip would go into coalition with the Conservatives they wouldn't. I was told that hundreds of times in labour wards.
Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?
That depends: if Labour stood on that manifesto, and got - say - 40% of the vote, and the LibDems got another 15%, then I think you could make the case that the people had changed their minds.
On the other hand, if Labour snuck to victory on 30%, which is not impossible if we get UKIP and the Conservatives each on 25%, then I think you would need another referendum.
If Labour stood on that manifesto it would lose Sunderland, Stoke, Hull, Hartlepool, the South Wales Valleys, Salford, Heywood and Middleton, Wigan etc. I don't think they'd gain many seats in the Stockbroker Belt to compensate.
The fantasy idea from some Labour "moderates" of basing a strategy on uniting Remain voters is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard.
The likes of Mole Valley and Guildford are not voting Labour ever, no matter what.
The LDs could win those seats though and indeed they have, Guildford had a LD MP from 1997 to 2005. If there is a realignment it will not change the leadership of Labour and the Tories, their memberships will ensure Corbyn or McDonnell and a Brexiteer lead both however it could lead to some New Labour types and diehard Remain Tories defecting to the LDs. That is why Farron has pushed so hard for the LDs to represent the 48%!
Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?
Two issues.
1) Even if we can delay declaring article 50 until October, can it be delayed until after a snap GE? Seems doubtful, and once declared there's no turning back was my understanding.
2) Labour will not stand on continuing membership.It might play well in about half their seats (although perhaps not - not all remainers will be on board), but it would be devastating in the other half. Their best bet is to pledge to try for as close as we can get, short of membership. Greens could do so, and if Labour ditch Corbyn they might regain some of the far left vote. LDs have little to lose but simply are not going to win in most places - after all, most places voted Leave in any case. And the SNP, well, do they really want to stop the negotiations? They are on the path they want now.
I think we could be heading to a new party that will oppose leaving the EU. I reckon if the EU think this new party has a chance of winning, they'll hold fire and give them a chance.
"Hold off on the Brexit negotiations Jean-Claude, the LD are about to go into government with the New European Democrats"
More seriously, I cannot see that happening. Remain actually wasn't that far off in places I thought they would be, here in Wiltshire they were on 48.5%, but are the LDs or Lab or a new party really going to win a seat here, over all tribal loyalties, because the EU is so vital to them, even though they voted Leave? A new party isn't going to win on city seats alone, and they probably wouldn't win those either.
I'm thinking some of the Tories will join the new party.
I don't know that Ken Clarke on his own will be that effective.
186 backed Bremain. They will try to get one of their guys or girls as PM. If they fail, some of them may leave the Tory Party. We are on the edge of a complete realignment of politics in England and Wales.
That would be a good thing. But I don't see it myself. The Tories will fall into step behind a Brexit leader for long enough that article 50 is declared, and then there's no point fighting on. Unless we are literally rioting before then, the EU issue won't seem important enough to them to risk seats and government by trying to overturn the referendum or being seen to want to as any new party would be presented.
People shouldn't underestimate FPTP. Pro-EU parties just need to ensure they don't split the vote.
And the Tories (if led by a genuine Leaver) need to align with Ukip. They must not contest seats with each other.
Seriously? The tories have spent years calling us names, no way will Ukip prop them up, our voters would skin us alive.
If it looks like the Tories have been purged of Remain supporters, and it was clear that this General Election was a rerun of the referendum, I think we would do what was in the country's interest.
Disgruntled labour voters might vote Ukip, if they thought that Ukip would go into coalition with the Conservatives they wouldn't. I was told that hundreds of times in labour wards.
Corbyn had no choice. Benn launched a coup against him. I am no longer a Labour supporter but if I were my sympathy would be with the leader and my fury would be directed at those who tried to unseat him.
I''f Corbyn is replaced then one thing is certain - all the talk on here of the Tories no-confidencing themselves to force a GE is for the birds.''
The silence surrounding the tory backbenchers is palpable. There must be a great deal of re-assessing going on now that Dave is no longer doling out the patronage.
Especially as Boris and Gove have strong alliances not just with the voters, but with plenty of labour MPs.
At least he has stepped up. Where are Gove, Johnson, Osborne, Cameron, May? There is a total vacuum in the country.
I can't disagree with this. The Tories are making a massive mistake not getting on with this leadership contest right now. This is no longer about picking someone to beat Labour. This is about picking some to run the country right now.
People shouldn't underestimate FPTP. Pro-EU parties just need to ensure they don't split the vote.
And the Tories (if led by a genuine Leaver) need to align with Ukip. They must not contest seats with each other.
Seriously? The tories have spent years calling us names, no way will Ukip prop them up, our voters would skin us alive.
If it looks like the Tories have been purged of Remain supporters, and it was clear that this General Election was a rerun of the referendum, I think we would do what was in the country's interest.
Disgruntled labour voters might vote Ukip, if they thought that Ukip would go into coalition with the Conservatives they wouldn't. I was told that hundreds of times in labour wards.
Things might have changed.
Nah, not among labour voters.
I told you lot time and again it would be Labour that won this for Leave, I'm rarely right when it comes to politics. Campaign in a swing seat and you'll see the tribal hatred, ex mining villages for example.
Away this weekend but wow! Jezza should threaten the nuclear option and mention events on a certain road that would bring down the tory and labour parties and many mp's. My friend told him and his office all about it shortly after he became leader. Go on Jezza!
Jezza can't threaten the nuclear option - he said he'd never press the button
That was my point - I know it's not mandatory, but there's no viable route to an anti-Brexit group winning a GE anyway. Even if they felt they could justify calling one, which parties are going to stand on a basis of ignoring the referendum?
Con - No LD - Looks like it Lab - No, too divided Greens - Possibly PC - who cares DUP - No UUP - IDK, probably not SDLP - No UKIP - No SNP and SF - why would they, they think this will get them what they want
Unless we literally descend into anarchy, public opinion won't change quickly enough for an anti-Brexit party to win a GE before article 50 is declared, and after it is the question becomes rejoining not 'not leaving' which is a less attractive option.
I would question the mandate of a "stay in the EU" coalition. A general election is not a referendum on a particular issue, it is a vote on a broad programme of government. You cannot reasonably assume that every single one of your voters has supported every plank of your policy programme.
The neverendum scenario is preferable to the quagmire this would create.
Er I and many other people will riot if they keep us in the E.U since democracy didn't work.
Exactly, chaos would ensue! Many have said part of the reason people voted leave was because they were ignored by political class - ignoring them again would probably lead to civil unrest on an unprecedented scale.
A "remain in EU" alliance could not claim that their mandate trumped the referendum's mandate. They would have stood on platforms covering a huge swathe of public policy, and many voters would have supported them for reasons other than remaining in the EU.
If Corbyn is replaced then one thing is certain - all the talk on here of the Tories no-confidencing themselves to force a GE is for the birds.
And this is another reason the idea a snap GE might happen and elect a 'stay in' set of parties is not going to happen - it will require Tories to force an early election, they aren't going to back that, not now, and certainly not if Labour look more formidible.
This coup against Corbyn will give the ones who signed a petition that second referundum an excuse to sign another "save Corbyn"petition, it will be a good distraction for the poor darlings.
If Britain stays in the EU either because of a vote to do so (unlikely) or because they never quite get round to leaving (also unlikely) it will be because people who voted Leave changed those minds.
I assume the Lib Dem pitch is that they are PRO the EU and are outward looking and will always aim to have the deepest possible relationship rather than necessarily rerun the referendum. But I don't know if this is the case.
I think it's clear we need to tell the EU we need to wait a few years before we declare article 50 - looks like we need to resolve which political parties we will have, resolve any lingering issues around voting systems, House of Lords, etc, best to get all this in order before we leave the EU.
Sturgeon immensely impressive on Marr. Scotland very lucky to have her.
Yep but reading between the lines I'm not sure her hand is that strong. Currency, border and cachet in Brussels were things she had to side step.
She must be miffed about Labour. She was probably hoping to dominate the UK news for a week.
She's saying stuff she has to say, but she must be secretly concerned that she's on a one way path not of her choosing, where simply making the right political moves is not necessarily going to benefit her in the long term.
As the Brexit referendum has shown, ultimately years of making the right short to medium term political moves can all end in nought if they don't align with long term political interests.
Yes but Sturgeon knows exactly what she is doing and has been all over the airwaves. Give the Scots their independence and put Salmond in as a caretaker Prime Minister at Westminster. He would be just about the only person who could get a decent deal out of the EU.
People shouldn't underestimate FPTP. Pro-EU parties just need to ensure they don't split the vote.
The LDs, Greens, Labour, SNP would all be 'pro-EU'.
They'd be focussing the Leave vote on Con/UKIP. I'd guess Conservative landslide.
That's what will happen next time. Better than 1983 for the Tories.
I doubt that very much. In the very likely coming recession, an offer combining economic pragmatism with a counter to the perceived populist failures of Brexit could be very popular indeed. A centre-left message could work extremely well here, as long as it's not too Blairite.
It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.
A "credible alternative" who just catastrophically misread the public mood on the EU?
The public mood was 50:50 (ok 3.8% to one side).
But not among their voters in the North. I can see Ukip gains across the north if Labour stands to stay in the EU at the General Election.
Some on here predicted UKIP with 100+ MPs at the last election. Labour may well have a different leader soon. I think that you are mistaken.
We are through the looking glass. The people have just voted to leave the EU. If Labour campaigns to ignore that vote, Ukip could clean up.
I think a Leave-lead Conservative Party would be the Leave-vote magnet.
None of them want to either leave the EU or stop immigration though. It's UKIP or bust.
We haven't seen the UK-EU Leave negotiations yet.
Mr Hannan's TV appearances have suggested he doesn't see immigration control as a priority, but he's not the decision maker.
We don't yet know who the leader of the Conservative Party will be, who will be leading negotiations for the UK. Lets wait to hear from them before we assume Vote Leave are all finks.
Well I will have to be someone completely univolved with the Conservative Leave camapign as every single one of them has said no end to free movement and that if people were voting to stop immigration then it was a terrible mistake by the voters.
That was my point - I know it's not mandatory, but there's no viable route to an anti-Brexit group winning a GE anyway. Even if they felt they could justify calling one, which parties are going to stand on a basis of ignoring the referendum?
Con - No LD - Looks like it Lab - No, too divided Greens - Possibly PC - who cares DUP - No UUP - IDK, probably not SDLP - No UKIP - No SNP and SF - why would they, they think this will get them what they want
Unless we literally descend into anarchy, public opinion won't change quickly enough for an anti-Brexit party to win a GE before article 50 is declared, and after it is the question becomes rejoining not 'not leaving' which is a less attractive option.
I would question the mandate of a "stay in the EU" coalition. A general election is not a referendum on a particular issue, it is a vote on a broad programme of government. You cannot reasonably assume that every single one of your voters has supported every plank of your policy programme.
The neverendum scenario is preferable to the quagmire this would create.
By that logic no Governemnt should implement any policy, without a referendum first, ever.
So why did Benn not resign rather than waiting to be sacked?
To present as displaying of being as loyal as possible, reluctantly telling the leader he no longer had confidence in him and accepting the consequences of that, rather than just flouncing off?
If Britain stays in the EU either because of a vote to do so (unlikely) or because they never quite get round to leaving (also unlikely) it will be because people who voted Leave changed those minds.
I assume the Lib Dem pitch is that they are PRO the EU and are outward looking and will always aim to have the deepest possible relationship rather than necessarily rerun the referendum. But I don't know if this is the case.
If the EU made a new offer I could see the possibility of staying in. But since Dave has flounced off and the french want us out that is unlikely.
Comments
However you're entirely correct that the split may well not be along traditional party lines.
TSE
longer than the Brexit negotiations?
Others will have thought that Remain would win and cast a protest vote (wipe the smile off their faces).
Given a few more weeks of bad news to add to the possibility of losing Scotland from the UK and the announcement of planned job losses and the sentiment of the public may well have swung by more than the 1.9% necessary.
I hope Jezza takes Hunchmans advice. He would be a laughing stock.
They'd be focussing the Leave vote on Con/UKIP. I'd guess Conservative landslide.
Although that wouldn't explain why the SNP were playing up the London argument, as that is not a separate entity. That is true, however if the election was fought on the basis that that issue was the most crucial, I think the mandate is there (not that I think it will happen). If the SNP had said 'we will declare independence unilaterally if we win the next scottish elections', they;d be within their rights to say they got backing for it, and someone saying 'I only voted for them due to the health policy' would not prevent that.
If you vote for a party you are giving at least tacit support to their programme, since they cannot know exactly which bits people supported and which they did not. Electors have to take that into account and decide if the possibility of part x of the programme happening is worth part y happening - they cannot claim it unfair.
If a 'stay in' party won the election, no one who voted for them with that as their promise could protest them doing so.
But it won't happen.
I'm assuming any new leader process runs under the same rules that brought Willie Nelson's urban UK cousin into position.
If so, why would they decide anyone other than a hard left candidate?
I agree there would possibly be riots, or at the least an apoplectic reaction, if a GE returned a 'stay in' government, or a second referendum were held and Remain won, but it isn't anti-democratic if democratic means were used to halt the first democratic choice. We democratically chose a Tory government a year ago, it isn't anti-democratic if we go to a GE this year and vote in someone else.
Mr Hannan's TV appearances have suggested he doesn't see immigration control as a priority, but he's not the decision maker.
We don't yet know who the leader of the Conservative Party will be, who will be leading negotiations for the UK. Lets wait to hear from them before we assume Vote Leave are all finks.
Shit has just become real for the swivel eyed loons.
Doncaster was one of the most Brexity seats, the notion of a pro EU ed even retaining his seat is, I think, at least debatable.
The vote showed the old certainties are gone.
:tumbleweed:
The silence surrounding the tory backbenchers is palpable. There must be a great deal of re-assessing going on now that Dave is no longer doling out the patronage.
Especially as Boris and Gove have strong alliances not just with the voters, but with plenty of labour MPs.
I told you lot time and again it would be Labour that won this for Leave, I'm rarely right when it comes to politics. Campaign in a swing seat and you'll see the tribal hatred, ex mining villages for example.
it still hasnt occurred to you that pontless name calling probably cost Remain this referendum ?
next time try charming the electorate.
A "remain in EU" alliance could not claim that their mandate trumped the referendum's mandate. They would have stood on platforms covering a huge swathe of public policy, and many voters would have supported them for reasons other than remaining in the EU.
I assume the Lib Dem pitch is that they are PRO the EU and are outward looking and will always aim to have the deepest possible relationship rather than necessarily rerun the referendum. But I don't know if this is the case.
Say, 2035 then?
As the Brexit referendum has shown, ultimately years of making the right short to medium term political moves can all end in nought if they don't align with long term political interests.
Yes but Sturgeon knows exactly what she is doing and has been all over the airwaves. Give the Scots their independence and put Salmond in as a caretaker Prime Minister at Westminster. He would be just about the only person who could get a decent deal out of the EU.
The swivel eyed loons are curiously absent now. Apart from backtracking on the NHS funding and saying that immigration will not go down.