Good morning all. Hilary Benn always looked untrustworthy to me and often spoke pure bollox in support of his boss, Corbyn. They deserved each other in unity and they deserve each other in division.
It now looks as if Hilary Benn might be appearing on the Marr Show on the BBC from 9am – we’ll cover it live if so.
George Eaton, the New Statesman political editor, says Benn will be on in place of the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, who was due to be on the programme.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Calling it Tories least bad option party presumably
Like your support for Corbyn I'm afraid that makes no sense.
Your position.
The intra-party squabbling this morning is funny but in the context of the bigger issues facing a divided country I find it quite grotesque. I suspect the voters might too.
I think the press are making a real mistake in focusing on that this morning and not the real wider sense of crisis. It may because the economic changes are still are little too intangible. This will change itself soon.
This is my worry - some people think that the Sterling slide on Friday was it - ie no big deal. I now have real fears of much bigger falls for sterling and the FTSE250 during the next few weeks unless some at least of the current maelstrom settles and we get some sense of what the post-Brexit deal is to be. The thing is Forex and Stock exchange swings really do impact on many people's lives both quickly for some and on the slow burner for many more.
If 75% of the electorate have to have voted and either "Remain" or "Leave" need to achieve "60%" then what happens if these conditions are not met? By definition we can neither remain nor leave....
:is-someone-yanking-our-chain:
The Scottish devolution referendum in 1979 had a condition that 40% of the total electorate had to vote to make it valid. In the absence of that, nothing changes - and that is what happened.
The US Senate requires a 60% vote to avoid legislation being blocked. If it doesn't get it, nothing changes.
For something as important as this that is permanent and irreversible, there should have been a higher benchmark than 50%. There wasn't because Cameron was confident that he could win over 50%.
It is now up to MPs to block this as the referendum was only advisory and this petition will strengthen their arm. We don't actually need a second referendum. MPs should say "Thank you for your advice but we are not taking it." Some but not all of the 52% would be upset. I suspect a majority of the country would be pleased.
You give two examples of referendum thresholds, both of which this referendum blew out of the water and then state that Parliament should do something which is as dangerous as the UK government failing to bring into force the Irish Home rule act that had passed both houses, without the mitigation of world war one kicking off.
Comedy Gold.
"You give two examples of referendum thresholds, both of which this referendum blew out of the water"
It didn't. Only 37% of the total electorate voted Leave, and of those who voted, only 52% voted Leave. They are both below the example thresholds I gave.
It now looks as if Hilary Benn might be appearing on the Marr Show on the BBC from 9am – we’ll cover it live if so.
George Eaton, the New Statesman political editor, says Benn will be on in place of the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, who was due to be on the programme.
The Scottish devolution referendum in 1979 had a condition that 40% of the total electorate had to vote to make it valid. In the absence of that, nothing changes - and that is what happened.
The US Senate requires a 60% vote to avoid legislation being blocked. If it doesn't get it, nothing changes.
For something as important as this that is permanent and irreversible, there should have been a higher benchmark than 50%. There wasn't because Cameron was confident that he could win over 50%.
It is now up to MPs to block this as the referendum was only advisory and this petition will strengthen their arm. We don't actually need a second referendum. MPs should say "Thank you for your advice but we are not taking it." Some but not all of the 52% would be upset. I suspect a majority of the country would be pleased.
Scenario:
Turnout: 80%; result: Remain 42%; Leave 58%. So the Remainians win. And that folks is democracy...?
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Calling it Tories least bad option party presumably
Like your support for Corbyn I'm afraid that makes no sense.
Your position.
The intra-party squabbling this morning is funny but in the context of the bigger issues facing a divided country I find it quite grotesque. I suspect the voters might too.
I think the press are making a real mistake in focusing on that this morning and not the real wider sense of crisis. It may because the economic changes are still are little too intangible. This will change itself soon.
This is my worry - some people think that the Sterling slide on Friday was it - ie no big deal. I now have real fears of much bigger falls for sterling and the FTSE250 during the next few weeks unless some at least of the current maelstrom settles and we get some sense of what the post-Brexit deal is to be. The thing is Forex and Stock exchange swings really do impact on many people's lives both quickly for some and on the slow burner for many more.
The sterling falls will undoubtably be utterly ruinous in much the same way as they were after Black Wednesday in 1992..oh wait
Perhaps this will teach those MP's in all parties that principle counts, and those that are glued to their seats for power and self prestige can often come violently unstuck; usually by their own side.
That's being "showered" with cash that we actually gave to the EU in the first place only for them to pass some of it back telling us where to spend it.
The Scottish devolution referendum in 1979 had a condition that 40% of the total electorate had to vote to make it valid. In the absence of that, nothing changes - and that is what happened.
The US Senate requires a 60% vote to avoid legislation being blocked. If it doesn't get it, nothing changes.
For something as important as this that is permanent and irreversible, there should have been a higher benchmark than 50%. There wasn't because Cameron was confident that he could win over 50%.
It is now up to MPs to block this as the referendum was only advisory and this petition will strengthen their arm. We don't actually need a second referendum. MPs should say "Thank you for your advice but we are not taking it." Some but not all of the 52% would be upset. I suspect a majority of the country would be pleased.
Scenario:
Turnout: 80%; result: Remain 42%; Leave 58%. So the Remainians win. And that folks is democracy...?
Do you think the thresholds you propose should also apply to trade union strike ballots?
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Calling it Tories least bad option party presumably
Like your support for Corbyn I'm afraid that makes no sense.
Your position.
The intra-party squabbling this morning is funny but in the context of the bigger issues facing a divided country I find it quite grotesque. I suspect the voters might too.
I think the press are making a real mistake in focusing on that this morning and not the real wider sense of crisis. It may because the economic changes are still are little too intangible. This will change itself soon.
This is my worry - some people think that the Sterling slide on Friday was it - ie no big deal. I now have real fears of much bigger falls for sterling and the FTSE250 during the next few weeks unless some at least of the current maelstrom settles and we get some sense of what the post-Brexit deal is to be. The thing is Forex and Stock exchange swings really do impact on many people's lives both quickly for some and on the slow burner for many more.
Let's see. I imagine no-one at the BoE is having much of a weekend break. Hopefully Asian markets will have a quiet Monday. That should calm things down.
If 75% of the electorate have to have voted and either "Remain" or "Leave" need to achieve "60%" then what happens if these conditions are not met? By definition we can neither remain nor leave....
:is-someone-yanking-our-chain:
The Scottish devolution referendum in 1979 had a condition that 40% of the total electorate had to vote to make it valid. In the absence of that, nothing changes - and that is what happened.
The US Senate requires a 60% vote to avoid legislation being blocked. If it doesn't get it, nothing changes.
For something as important as this that is permanent and irreversible, there should have been a higher benchmark than 50%. There wasn't because Cameron was confident that he could win over 50%.
It is now up to MPs to block this as the referendum was only advisory and this petition will strengthen their arm. We don't actually need a second referendum. MPs should say "Thank you for your advice but we are not taking it." Some but not all of the 52% would be upset. I suspect a majority of the country would be pleased.
You give two examples of referendum thresholds, both of which this referendum blew out of the water and then state that Parliament should do something which is as dangerous as the UK government failing to bring into force the Irish Home rule act that had passed both houses, without the mitigation of world war one kicking off.
Comedy Gold.
"You give two examples of referendum thresholds, both of which this referendum blew out of the water"
It didn't. Only 37% of the total electorate voted Leave, and of those who voted, only 52% voted Leave. They are both below the example thresholds I gave.
You didn't make it clear, your post implied that those 40% and 60% figures were turnout.
A party realignment as the anti Corbyn parliamentary party leave would surely lead to a 'coupon election' similar to that of 1918. The pro European Tories would then be left with a terrible choice to make; break with the Conservative Party or find themselves fighting a coupon candidate.
That's being "showered" with cash that we actually gave to the EU in the first place only for them to pass some of it back telling us where to spend it.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
It is possible - albeit unlikely - that if Article 50 is delayed, there is a general election, and a pro-EU government comes in thanks to buyers remorse, that Brexit could be cancelled.
You'd need to offer me pretty long odds to make me bet on that
If, and it's a big if, there is a general election then it's likely that the parties will have to make their positions on Brexit and the EU clear. If an anti Brexit, pro EU party wins that would certainly negate a 52:48 referendum result.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Calling it Tories least bad option party presumably
Like your support for Corbyn I'm afraid that makes no sense.
Your position.
The intra-party squabbling this morning is funny but in the context of the bigger issues facing a divided country I find it quite grotesque. I suspect the voters might too.
I think the press are making a real mistake in focusing on that this morning and not the real wider sense of crisis. It may because the economic changes are still are little too intangible. This will change itself soon.
This is my worry - some people think that the Sterling slide on Friday was it - ie no big deal. I now have real fears of much bigger falls for sterling and the FTSE250 during the next few weeks unless some at least of the current maelstrom settles and we get some sense of what the post-Brexit deal is to be. The thing is Forex and Stock exchange swings really do impact on many people's lives both quickly for some and on the slow burner for many more.
The sterling falls will undoubtably be utterly ruinous in much the same way as they were after Black Wednesday in 1992..oh wait
Putting words into other people's mouths is a poor substitute for an argument.
The sterling falls will undoubtably be utterly ruinous in much the same way as they were after Black Wednesday in 1992..oh wait
There is a fundamental difference between Black Wednesday and now: in 1992 we were running only a very modest current accound deficit - c. 1.5% of GDP. In the last quarter of 2015, we were north of 7%. We also had consumer and government debt that were massively lower then as a percentage of GDP.
Because project smear just worked so well in the referendum?
no need to attack his private life, just attack him for lacking in principle.. should be enough to do for his political ambition.
I actually think it is quite possible that his political career is now finished. There are just too many powerful and influential people (inside and outside politics) who utterly despise him. I think his subdued demeanour on Friday can be accounted for by his own realisation of this.
That's being "showered" with cash that we actually gave to the EU in the first place only for them to pass some of it back telling us where to spend it.
Plenty to consider here but it's polling day in Spain and the two conservative parties and the two labour parties are having a rematch following the December stalemate.
Will our little local happenings have an impact ? Might strengthen the hand of Rajoy and the PP or it might help Podemos who will probably finish second in front of PSOE.
Last time PP and Ciudadamos got 162 seats while PSOE and Podemos got 159 - Cortes has 350 seats leaving the ubiquitous Others holding the balance on 29.
The polls I've seen suggest the centre-left parties might get nearer 170 seats this time with the centre right on 158 which might allow a Podemos/PSOE Government to take over (or it might not).
What now happens to the Heathrow decision that was expected in the next fortnight? Boris is massively anti and DC is a lame duck. The chancellor has dissappeared and has lost credibility. I would not be surprised if it is put back
Do we need to expand Heathrow post Brexit? Maybe we should be thinking of which London airport we can shut.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Calling it Tories least bad option party presumably
Like your support for Corbyn I'm afraid that makes no sense.
Your position.
Corbyn must go - if not Labour will be sub 200 seats at the general election later this year.
Because project smear just worked so well in the referendum?
This time the initial electorate are Tory MPs and there are a large number who have little time for BoJo - on both sides of the Brexit divide.
In which case they had better hope that if they do manage to keep him off the members ballot, he dosen't follow Livingstones example and resign from the party to stand against them, taking enough Tory and probably Labour MPs with him to bring the government down and fight an election from a new party (much as Livingstone stood as an independent and won London)
The border will need to be shortened on the East side, so as to allow those parts of London that voted Out to stick with their original decision. The big question is whether that should use the M11 as the dividing line or the A10.
The M11 would make more sense, TBH, although it would mean Woodford, Loughton and Theydon Bois remained inside London and the EU.
You would need a new river crossing where the Woolwich ferry is right now, and then you could rejoin at the A20. In this way, the most Eurosceptic parts of London would be allowed to stay outside the EU.
Darn Sarf it should be the River Ravensbourne. Ok some of Kent will be lost to Londonshire but not my part.
What now happens to the Heathrow decision that was expected in the next fortnight? Boris is massively anti and DC is a lame duck. The chancellor has dissappeared and has lost credibility. I would not be surprised if it is put back
Do we need to expand Heathrow post Brexit? Maybe we should be thinking of which London airport we can shut.
IIUC it doesn't quite touch onto the M25. Assuming that's going to be the border of London, it'll need to be expanded up to there, then I guess you put London customs and immigration either just on the London side or in the tunnel under the M25.
The border will need to be shortened on the East side, so as to allow those parts of London that voted Out to stick with their original decision. The big question is whether that should use the M11 as the dividing line or the A10.
The M11 would make more sense, TBH, although it would mean Woodford, Loughton and Theydon Bois remained inside London and the EU.
You would need a new river crossing where the Woolwich ferry is right now, and then you could rejoin at the A20. In this way, the most Eurosceptic parts of London would be allowed to stay outside the EU.
That's nice and symmetrical, as you can replicate the "one airport, two borders" setup at London City Airport as well, which gives both countries an incentive to be helpful to the other.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
It is possible - albeit unlikely - that if Article 50 is delayed, there is a general election, and a pro-EU government comes in thanks to buyers remorse, that Brexit could be cancelled.
You'd need to offer me pretty long odds to make me bet on that
If, and it's a big if, there is a general election then it's likely that the parties will have to make their positions on Brexit and the EU clear. If an anti Brexit, pro EU party wins that would certainly negate a 52:48 referendum result.
Well, I think it's a bit more complicated than that. Imagine that three parties stood: UKIP, Labour, Conservatives. UKIP and the Conservatives had leaving the EU as their policy, and Labour had remaining. Now, imagine Labour won a majority with - say - 40% of the vote.
Personally, I sincerely hope that we can come to an accommodation with the EU very quickly.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Calling it Tories least bad option party presumably
Like your support for Corbyn I'm afraid that makes no sense.
Your position.
The intra-party squabbling this morning is funny but in the context of the bigger issues facing a divided country I find it quite grotesque. I suspect the voters might too.
I think the press are making a real mistake in focusing on that this morning and not the real wider sense of crisis. It may because the economic changes are still are little too intangible. This will change itself soon.
This is my worry - some people think that the Sterling slide on Friday was it - ie no big deal. I now have real fears of much bigger falls for sterling and the FTSE250 during the next few weeks unless some at least of the current maelstrom settles and we get some sense of what the post-Brexit deal is to be. The thing is Forex and Stock exchange swings really do impact on many people's lives both quickly for some and on the slow burner for many more.
Let's see. I imagine no-one at the BoE is having much of a weekend break. Hopefully Asian markets will have a quiet Monday. That should calm things down.
What now happens to the Heathrow decision that was expected in the next fortnight? Boris is massively anti and DC is a lame duck. The chancellor has dissappeared and has lost credibility. I would not be surprised if it is put back
Do we need to expand Heathrow post Brexit? Maybe we should be thinking of which London airport we can shut.
IIUC it doesn't quite touch onto the M25. Assuming that's going to be the border of London, it'll need to be expanded up to there, then I guess you put London customs and immigration either just on the London side or in the tunnel under the M25.
The border will need to be shortened on the East side, so as to allow those parts of London that voted Out to stick with their original decision. The big question is whether that should use the M11 as the dividing line or the A10.
The M11 would make more sense, TBH, although it would mean Woodford, Loughton and Theydon Bois remained inside London and the EU.
You would need a new river crossing where the Woolwich ferry is right now, and then you could rejoin at the A20. In this way, the most Eurosceptic parts of London would be allowed to stay outside the EU.
That's nice and symmetrical, as you can replicate the "one airport, two borders" setup at London City Airport as well, which gives both countries an incentive to be helpful to the other.
Yes, like Geneva airport has its Swiss and French zones. Good thinking.
The Scottish devolution referendum in 1979 had a condition that 40% of the total electorate had to vote to make it valid. In the absence of that, nothing changes - and that is what happened.
The US Senate requires a 60% vote to avoid legislation being blocked. If it doesn't get it, nothing changes.
For something as important as this that is permanent and irreversible, there should have been a higher benchmark than 50%. There wasn't because Cameron was confident that he could win over 50%.
It is now up to MPs to block this as the referendum was only advisory and this petition will strengthen their arm. We don't actually need a second referendum. MPs should say "Thank you for your advice but we are not taking it." Some but not all of the 52% would be upset. I suspect a majority of the country would be pleased.
Scenario:
Turnout: 80%; result: Remain 42%; Leave 58%. So the Remainians win. And that folks is democracy...?
Do you think the thresholds you propose should also apply to trade union strike ballots?
The sterling falls will undoubtably be utterly ruinous in much the same way as they were after Black Wednesday in 1992..oh wait
There is a fundamental difference between Black Wednesday and now: in 1992 we were running only a very modest current accound deficit - c. 1.5% of GDP. In the last quarter of 2015, we were north of 7%. We also had consumer and government debt that were massively lower then as a percentage of GDP.
Unfortunately for the EU their fundamentals are even worse, with Greece bubbling to the boil.
The EU needs the stablility of a fast deal far more than we do.
I Read the dithering and delay over article 50 in that light. The economic equivalent of gunboat diplomacy.
Because project smear just worked so well in the referendum?
no need to attack his private life, just attack him for lacking in principle.. should be enough to do for his political ambition.
I actually think it is quite possible that his political career is now finished. There are just too many powerful and influential people (inside and outside politics) who utterly despise him. I think his subdued demeanour on Friday can be accounted for by his own realisation of this.
Nothing to do with having been up all night after weeks of campagining ?
What now happens to the Heathrow decision that was expected in the next fortnight? Boris is massively anti and DC is a lame duck. The chancellor has dissappeared and has lost credibility. I would not be surprised if it is put back
Do we need to expand Heathrow post Brexit? Maybe we should be thinking of which London airport we can shut.
IIUC it doesn't quite touch onto the M25. Assuming that's going to be the border of London, it'll need to be expanded up to there, then I guess you put London customs and immigration either just on the London side or in the tunnel under the M25.
The border will need to be shortened on the East side, so as to allow those parts of London that voted Out to stick with their original decision. The big question is whether that should use the M11 as the dividing line or the A10.
The M11 would make more sense, TBH, although it would mean Woodford, Loughton and Theydon Bois remained inside London and the EU.
You would need a new river crossing where the Woolwich ferry is right now, and then you could rejoin at the A20. In this way, the most Eurosceptic parts of London would be allowed to stay outside the EU.
That's nice and symmetrical, as you can replicate the "one airport, two borders" setup at London City Airport as well, which gives both countries an incentive to be helpful to the other.
Yes, like Geneva airport has its Swiss and French zones. Good thinking.
Friedrichstrasse Station seems a more credible comparison.
Anyway, can someone do a map showing where the wall is going, Apparently in Berlin it was done on postcode boundaries.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Calling it Tories least bad option party presumably
Like your support for Corbyn I'm afraid that makes no sense.
Your position.
The intra-party squabbling this morning is funny but in the context of the bigger issues facing a divided country I find it quite grotesque. I suspect the voters might too.
I think the press are making a real mistake in focusing on that this morning and not the real wider sense of crisis. It may because the economic changes are still are little too intangible. This will change itself soon.
This is my worry - some people think that the Sterling slide on Friday was it - ie no big deal. I now have real fears of much bigger falls for sterling and the FTSE250 during the next few weeks unless some at least of the current maelstrom settles and we get some sense of what the post-Brexit deal is to be. The thing is Forex and Stock exchange swings really do impact on many people's lives both quickly for some and on the slow burner for many more.
Let's see. I imagine no-one at the BoE is having much of a weekend break. Hopefully Asian markets will have a quiet Monday. That should calm things down.
Maybe. If Boris wants to be PM he should be working hard to get the Tory leadership election run quickly. If holiday money becomes expensive, mortgage rates increase, the cost of petrol goes up and people start losing jobs then his chances go down as do the Tories chance of winning the next election.
The Scottish devolution referendum in 1979 had a condition that 40% of the total electorate had to vote to make it valid. In the absence of that, nothing changes - and that is what happened.
The US Senate requires a 60% vote to avoid legislation being blocked. If it doesn't get it, nothing changes.
For something as important as this that is permanent and irreversible, there should have been a higher benchmark than 50%. There wasn't because Cameron was confident that he could win over 50%.
It is now up to MPs to block this as the referendum was only advisory and this petition will strengthen their arm. We don't actually need a second referendum. MPs should say "Thank you for your advice but we are not taking it." Some but not all of the 52% would be upset. I suspect a majority of the country would be pleased.
Scenario:
Turnout: 80%; result: Remain 42%; Leave 58%. So the Remainians win. And that folks is democracy...?
Do you think the thresholds you propose should also apply to trade union strike ballots?
Plenty to consider here but it's polling day in Spain and the two conservative parties and the two labour parties are having a rematch following the December stalemate.
Will our little local happenings have an impact ? Might strengthen the hand of Rajoy and the PP or it might help Podemos who will probably finish second in front of PSOE.
Last time PP and Ciudadamos got 162 seats while PSOE and Podemos got 159 - Cortes has 350 seats leaving the ubiquitous Others holding the balance on 29.
The polls I've seen suggest the centre-left parties might get nearer 170 seats this time with the centre right on 158 which might allow a Podemos/PSOE Government to take over (or it might not).
Yes, the merger of Podemos and the Communists means that - even though they'll get no more votes than previous - they'll get more seats.
That being said, I think it's very unlikely the Socialists will want to be the junior partner to Podemos, because that would be signing their own death warrant.
I think it's entirely possible that we end up with another inconclusive election result, with both the left and right win blocks on c. 160 to 165 seats.
@bbclaurak: Just been told half the shadow cabinet to resign this morning
Wow.
Hmm. This could be, on the other hand those further not on the left inside the labour party seem very used to using briefings in this way, to affect the outcome.
What now happens to the Heathrow decision that was expected in the next fortnight? Boris is massively anti and DC is a lame duck. The chancellor has dissappeared and has lost credibility. I would not be surprised if it is put back
Do we need to expand Heathrow post Brexit? Maybe we should be thinking of which London airport we can shut.
IIUC it doesn't quite touch onto the M25. Assuming that's going to be the border of London, it'll need to be expanded up to there, then I guess you put London customs and immigration either just on the London side or in the tunnel under the M25.
The border will need to be shortened on the East side, so as to allow those parts of London that voted Out to stick with their original decision. The big question is whether that should use the M11 as the dividing line or the A10.
The M11 would make more sense, TBH, although it would mean Woodford, Loughton and Theydon Bois remained inside London and the EU.
You would need a new river crossing where the Woolwich ferry is right now, and then you could rejoin at the A20. In this way, the most Eurosceptic parts of London would be allowed to stay outside the EU.
That's nice and symmetrical, as you can replicate the "one airport, two borders" setup at London City Airport as well, which gives both countries an incentive to be helpful to the other.
Yes, like Geneva airport has its Swiss and French zones. Good thinking.
Friedrichstrasse Station seems a more credible comparison.
Anyway, can someone do a map showing where the wall is going, Apparently in Berlin it was done on postcode boundaries.
I still think there's a place for 'Remainia' stretching from Lewes and Brighton through Guildford and Winchester to Stroud.
The sterling falls will undoubtably be utterly ruinous in much the same way as they were after Black Wednesday in 1992..oh wait
There is a fundamental difference between Black Wednesday and now: in 1992 we were running only a very modest current accound deficit - c. 1.5% of GDP. In the last quarter of 2015, we were north of 7%. We also had consumer and government debt that were massively lower then as a percentage of GDP.
Unfortunately for the EU their fundamentals are even worse, with Greece bubbling to the boil.
The EU needs the stablility of a fast deal far more than we do.
I Read the dithering and delay over article 50 in that light. The economic equivalent of gunboat diplomacy.
So if we both go to shit, that's OK?
But seriously, the Eurozone is in fundamentally better shape than the UK.
* Current account surplus * Lower budget deficit * Lower government debt * Lower personal debt
That doesn't mean they'll act sensibly, but the UK's economy, dependent as it is on the wholesale importation of capital, is a little bit of a hollow facade.
You have to hand it to Labour and Corbyn. The most dramatic totemic shift in the political situation within the UK since WW2 has just occurred and they manage to get all the Sunday shows talking about a bloodbath in the Labour Party.
The other silly petition - the London UDI - would get a lot of support North of Waford.
The NW would definitely give it a resounding welcome, although they'd demand a food blockade too. I'd be against that, as we'd have to construct guard towers to keep the starving masses penned in. A wall round Islington might be do-able though, but we'd allow shipments of cabbages from Lincolnshire (at extortionate prices).
Sorry, I assumed this damnation and hellfire misery-fest was open to all.
An interesting piece on why the psychology of the areas that voted Leave did so:
"While it may be one thing for an investment banker to understand that they ‘benefit from the EU’ in regulatory terms, it is quite another to encourage poor and culturally marginalised people to feel grateful towards the elites that sustain them through handouts, month by month. Resentment develops not in spite of this generosity, but arguably because of it. This isn’t to discredit what the EU does in terms of redistribution, but pointing to handouts is a psychologically and politically naïve basis on which to justify remaining in the EU.
In this context, the slogan ‘take back control’ was a piece of political genius. It worked on every level between the macroeconomic and the psychoanalytic. Think of what it means on an individual level to rediscover control. To be a person without control (for instance to suffer incontinence or a facial tick) is to be the butt of cruel jokes, to be potentially embarrassed in public. It potentially reduces one’s independence. What was so clever about the language of the Leave campaign was that it spoke directly to this feeling of inadequacy and embarrassment, then promised to eradicate it. The promise had nothing to do with economics or policy, but everything to do with the psychological allure of autonomy and self-respect."
The other silly petition - the London UDI - would get a lot of support North of Waford.
The NW would definitely give it a resounding welcome, although they'd demand a food blockade too. I'd be against that, as we'd have to construct guard towers to keep the starving masses penned in. A wall round Islington might be do-able though, but we'd allow shipments of cabbages from Lincolnshire (at extortionate prices).
Sorry, I assumed this damnation and hellfire misery-fest was open to all.
That's diabolical. In Islington we expect organic heritage baby beets and Swiss chard.
An interesting piece on why the psychology of the areas that voted Leave did so:
"While it may be one thing for an investment banker to understand that they ‘benefit from the EU’ in regulatory terms, it is quite another to encourage poor and culturally marginalised people to feel grateful towards the elites that sustain them through handouts, month by month. Resentment develops not in spite of this generosity, but arguably because of it. This isn’t to discredit what the EU does in terms of redistribution, but pointing to handouts is a psychologically and politically naïve basis on which to justify remaining in the EU.
In this context, the slogan ‘take back control’ was a piece of political genius. It worked on every level between the macroeconomic and the psychoanalytic. Think of what it means on an individual level to rediscover control. To be a person without control (for instance to suffer incontinence or a facial tick) is to be the butt of cruel jokes, to be potentially embarrassed in public. It potentially reduces one’s independence. What was so clever about the language of the Leave campaign was that it spoke directly to this feeling of inadequacy and embarrassment, then promised to eradicate it. The promise had nothing to do with economics or policy, but everything to do with the psychological allure of autonomy and self-respect."
If 75% of the electorate have to have voted and either "Remain" or "Leave" need to achieve "60%" then what happens if these conditions are not met? By definition we can neither remain nor leave....
:is-someone-yanking-our-chain:
The Scottish devolution referendum in 1979 had a condition that 40% of the total electorate had to vote to make it valid. In the absence of that, nothing changes - and that is what happened.
The US Senate requires a 60% vote to avoid legislation being blocked. If it doesn't get it, nothing changes.
For something as important as this that is permanent and irreversible, there should have been a higher benchmark than 50%. There wasn't because Cameron was confident that he could win over 50%.
It is now up to MPs to block this as the referendum was only advisory and this petition will strengthen their arm. We don't actually need a second referendum. MPs should say "Thank you for your advice but we are not taking it." Some but not all of the 52% would be upset. I suspect a majority of the country would be pleased.
You give two examples of referendum thresholds, both of which this referendum blew out of the water and then state that Parliament should do something which is as dangerous as the UK government failing to bring into force the Irish Home rule act that had passed both houses, without the mitigation of world war one kicking off.
Comedy Gold.
Err, it didn't meet he 40% rule of the 79 referendum and it obviously didn't meet the 60% threshold.
An interesting piece on why the psychology of the areas that voted Leave did so:
"While it may be one thing for an investment banker to understand that they ‘benefit from the EU’ in regulatory terms, it is quite another to encourage poor and culturally marginalised people to feel grateful towards the elites that sustain them through handouts, month by month. Resentment develops not in spite of this generosity, but arguably because of it. This isn’t to discredit what the EU does in terms of redistribution, but pointing to handouts is a psychologically and politically naïve basis on which to justify remaining in the EU.
In this context, the slogan ‘take back control’ was a piece of political genius. It worked on every level between the macroeconomic and the psychoanalytic. Think of what it means on an individual level to rediscover control. To be a person without control (for instance to suffer incontinence or a facial tick) is to be the butt of cruel jokes, to be potentially embarrassed in public. It potentially reduces one’s independence. What was so clever about the language of the Leave campaign was that it spoke directly to this feeling of inadequacy and embarrassment, then promised to eradicate it. The promise had nothing to do with economics or policy, but everything to do with the psychological allure of autonomy and self-respect."
But at least my job is safe. The NHS is going to get an extra £350 million per year. It must be true, I saw it on the side of a bus.
Take back control, and also take back control from 'London', or "urban arrogance". It's almost unstoppable. Totally illusory culture-politics, but unstoppable.
An interesting piece on why the psychology of the areas that voted Leave did so:
"While it may be one thing for an investment banker to understand that they ‘benefit from the EU’ in regulatory terms, it is quite another to encourage poor and culturally marginalised people to feel grateful towards the elites that sustain them through handouts, month by month. Resentment develops not in spite of this generosity, but arguably because of it. This isn’t to discredit what the EU does in terms of redistribution, but pointing to handouts is a psychologically and politically naïve basis on which to justify remaining in the EU.
In this context, the slogan ‘take back control’ was a piece of political genius. It worked on every level between the macroeconomic and the psychoanalytic. Think of what it means on an individual level to rediscover control. To be a person without control (for instance to suffer incontinence or a facial tick) is to be the butt of cruel jokes, to be potentially embarrassed in public. It potentially reduces one’s independence. What was so clever about the language of the Leave campaign was that it spoke directly to this feeling of inadequacy and embarrassment, then promised to eradicate it. The promise had nothing to do with economics or policy, but everything to do with the psychological allure of autonomy and self-respect."
The sterling falls will undoubtably be utterly ruinous in much the same way as they were after Black Wednesday in 1992..oh wait
There is a fundamental difference between Black Wednesday and now: in 1992 we were running only a very modest current accound deficit - c. 1.5% of GDP. In the last quarter of 2015, we were north of 7%. We also had consumer and government debt that were massively lower then as a percentage of GDP.
There was also the longer-term consequence in 1997!
I'm not surprised about Benn's sacking - if you go around asking other MPs whether the party leader should be removed, don't be surprised if said leader takes umbrage and acts.
I'm slightly surprised at some of the reaction - I thought the Conservatives valued loyalty. Had it been Hammond doing the same to Cameron, would Conservative activists have been more indulgent ?
The first shapes of the post-Referendum political landscape are starting to emerge as the tide of the vote to LEAVE rolls out. The LDs want to be "the party of the 48" - fair enough, but the problem is IF we returned to the EU, as I understand it, we'd have to take the Euro, Schengen and all the rest of it. Now, that's a coherent position of sorts but I suspect not one favoured by most REMAIN supporters. I also think were Britain to seek to rejoin, some "compromises" would be done to smooth the way but no one can say that here and now.
It's the problem Nicola Sturgeon is running into - an independent Scotland can apply to join the EU but it wouldn't be on the same terms as the former UK membership. No opt outs, no rebates, the Euro and Schengen would be mandatory.
The EU needs to decide how to play this and here's the problem. If they play soft and the UK gets a "velvet divorce", it will encourage others to believe it won't be so bad to leave. Play hardball and we all suffer. I suspect the delay in invoking Article 50 is mutually beneficial as it gives both the EU and the UK time to think.
There's also the awkward truth that France elects a new President next year and Germany has a federal election also next year so the mood music during the Article 50 negotiations may change somewhat if new forces take over in Paris and Berlin.
An interesting piece on why the psychology of the areas that voted Leave did so:
"While it may be one thing for an investment banker to understand that they ‘benefit from the EU’ in regulatory terms, it is quite another to encourage poor and culturally marginalised people to feel grateful towards the elites that sustain them through handouts, month by month. Resentment develops not in spite of this generosity, but arguably because of it. This isn’t to discredit what the EU does in terms of redistribution, but pointing to handouts is a psychologically and politically naïve basis on which to justify remaining in the EU.
In this context, the slogan ‘take back control’ was a piece of political genius. It worked on every level between the macroeconomic and the psychoanalytic. Think of what it means on an individual level to rediscover control. To be a person without control (for instance to suffer incontinence or a facial tick) is to be the butt of cruel jokes, to be potentially embarrassed in public. It potentially reduces one’s independence. What was so clever about the language of the Leave campaign was that it spoke directly to this feeling of inadequacy and embarrassment, then promised to eradicate it. The promise had nothing to do with economics or policy, but everything to do with the psychological allure of autonomy and self-respect."
The other silly petition - the London UDI - would get a lot of support North of Waford.
The NW would definitely give it a resounding welcome, although they'd demand a food blockade too. I'd be against that, as we'd have to construct guard towers to keep the starving masses penned in. A wall round Islington might be do-able though, but we'd allow shipments of cabbages from Lincolnshire (at extortionate prices).
Sorry, I assumed this damnation and hellfire misery-fest was open to all.
That's diabolical. In Islington we expect organic heritage baby beets and Swiss chard.
I forgot to congratulate Norfolk on its voting pattern. Norwich, I will forgive.
I understand your disappointment, I've grown used to being on the wrong side of any GE vote. If nothing else, this has enlivened politics tremendously. How long can it last?
The Labour Party seem determined to self destruct, they need a leader who pledges to cut immigration and they'll win a landslide at the next GE. It seems some people have learned nothing from the referendum.
What now happens to the Heathrow decision that was expected in the next fortnight? Boris is massively anti and DC is a lame duck. The chancellor has dissappeared and has lost credibility. I would not be surprised if it is put back
Do we need to expand Heathrow post Brexit? Maybe we should be thinking of which London airport we can shut.
IIUC it doesn't quite touch onto the M25. Assuming that's going to be the border of London, it'll need to be expanded up to there, then I guess you put London customs and immigration either just on the London side or in the tunnel under the M25.
The border will need to be shortened on the East side, so as to allow those parts of London that voted Out to stick with their original decision. The big question is whether that should use the M11 as the dividing line or the A10.
The M11 would make more sense, TBH, although it would mean Woodford, Loughton and Theydon Bois remained inside London and the EU.
You would need a new river crossing where the Woolwich ferry is right now, and then you could rejoin at the A20. In this way, the most Eurosceptic parts of London would be allowed to stay outside the EU.
That's nice and symmetrical, as you can replicate the "one airport, two borders" setup at London City Airport as well, which gives both countries an incentive to be helpful to the other.
Yes, like Geneva airport has its Swiss and French zones. Good thinking.
Friedrichstrasse Station seems a more credible comparison.
Anyway, can someone do a map showing where the wall is going, Apparently in Berlin it was done on postcode boundaries.
I still think there's a place for 'Remainia' stretching from Lewes and Brighton through Guildford and Winchester to Stroud.
If you don't want Leave areas to start ethnic-cleansing anyone with a university degree it's probably best to stop at clearly-defined areas rather than trying to take a lot of territory. There may be room for some other city-states though.
Plenty to consider here but it's polling day in Spain and the two conservative parties and the two labour parties are having a rematch following the December stalemate.
Will our little local happenings have an impact ? Might strengthen the hand of Rajoy and the PP or it might help Podemos who will probably finish second in front of PSOE.
Last time PP and Ciudadamos got 162 seats while PSOE and Podemos got 159 - Cortes has 350 seats leaving the ubiquitous Others holding the balance on 29.
The polls I've seen suggest the centre-left parties might get nearer 170 seats this time with the centre right on 158 which might allow a Podemos/PSOE Government to take over (or it might not).
I live here and it has actually been very low key campaign. Not sure the Pod/Psoe coalition would start let alone endure. The country really needs a grand coalition of some sort. On the bright side they might annex Gibraltar to add to UK's woes - Falklands rematch anyone?
Plenty to consider here but it's polling day in Spain and the two conservative parties and the two labour parties are having a rematch following the December stalemate.
Will our little local happenings have an impact ? Might strengthen the hand of Rajoy and the PP or it might help Podemos who will probably finish second in front of PSOE.
Last time PP and Ciudadamos got 162 seats while PSOE and Podemos got 159 - Cortes has 350 seats leaving the ubiquitous Others holding the balance on 29.
The polls I've seen suggest the centre-left parties might get nearer 170 seats this time with the centre right on 158 which might allow a Podemos/PSOE Government to take over (or it might not).
Yes, the merger of Podemos and the Communists means that - even though they'll get no more votes than previous - they'll get more seats.
That being said, I think it's very unlikely the Socialists will want to be the junior partner to Podemos, because that would be signing their own death warrant.
I think it's entirely possible that we end up with another inconclusive election result, with both the left and right win blocks on c. 160 to 165 seats.
One possibility is a brief non-PP alliance aimed at constitutional reform, with another GE to follow. A deal would have to be done on how to manage a Catalan independence vote, as both PSOE and Cs are implacably opposed. That's one big reason why a Podemos/IU and PSOE coalition would be so difficult to put together.
Yes, the merger of Podemos and the Communists means that - even though they'll get no more votes than previous - they'll get more seats.
That being said, I think it's very unlikely the Socialists will want to be the junior partner to Podemos, because that would be signing their own death warrant.
I think it's entirely possible that we end up with another inconclusive election result, with both the left and right win blocks on c. 160 to 165 seats.
I think unless it finishes second, PSOE is in a very difficult position. The option of supporting a minority PP/Citizens Government is there I suppose.
Jeremy Corbyn might be ousted? The Tories really are in trouble, Labour might be becoming credible again.
I see David Lammy is the first MP post referendum to poke his head up and suggest ignoring the vote. Good luck with that - there may well be a majority of MPs who want to Remain, but good luck getting 323 of them to do that, even though it's legal, particular given the strength of feeling in the northern towns and other Labour areas. Heck, some in the Tory shires might be more willing to try that given it was closer in some of those!
@paulwaugh: This really is war. I'm told there will be upto 12 pro-Corbyn demonstrations today in constituencies of Lab MPs who are seen as anti-Corbyn
"For instance I, and millions of Tory voters, have far more in common with excellent Labour MPs such as Kate Hoey or Frank Field than I do with David Cameron and the weird, obedient, meaningless quacking robots with which he has filled the Cabinet Room and the Tory benches in the House of Commons.
But the ossified party system kept them apart until now. They could not and did not combine to defeat their common enemy. And so at Election after Election, those who merely wanted to live their lives much as they had always lived them, and were baffled and pained by the unending changes imposed on them, had nowhere to turn.
The parties they thought of as their own were in fact in an alliance against them. Blair became Cameron and Cameron became Blair, and after a while it was impossible to tell which was which"
I forgot to congratulate Norfolk on its voting pattern. Norwich, I will forgive.
I understand your disappointment, I've grown used to being on the wrong side of any GE vote. If nothing else, this has enlivened politics tremendously. How long can it last?
I'm not disappointed on my own behalf. New laws and uncertainty are always good for lawyers.
It is, however, a disaster for the country. Pandering to xenophobia works. That's the long term takeaway from this result. We can now expect much much more of the same from our politicians.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Calling it Tories least bad option party presumably
Like your support for Corbyn I'm afraid that makes no sense.
Your position.
The intra-party squabbling this morning is funny but in the context of the bigger issues facing a divided country I find it quite grotesque. I suspect the voters might too.
I think the press are making a real mistake in focusing on that this morning and not the real wider sense of crisis. It may because the economic changes are still are little too intangible. This will change itself soon.
This is my worry - some people think that the Sterling slide on Friday was it - ie no big deal. I now have real fears of much bigger falls for sterling and the FTSE250 during the next few weeks unless some at least of the current maelstrom settles and we get some sense of what the post-Brexit deal is to be. The thing is Forex and Stock exchange swings really do impact on many people's lives both quickly for some and on the slow burner for many more.
Let's see. I imagine no-one at the BoE is having much of a weekend break. Hopefully Asian markets will have a quiet Monday. That should calm things down.
Working on their CVs?
Markets are going to tank again tomorrow. Stg down a lot more i would expect.
The Labour Party seem determined to self destruct, they need a leader who pledges to cut immigration and they'll win a landslide at the next GE. It seems some people have learned nothing from the referendum.
There will be a cut in immigration.
The sliding pound, xenophobia and damage to the economy will shift things considerably in favour of emmigration from immigration.
"For instance I, and millions of Tory voters, have far more in common with excellent Labour MPs such as Kate Hoey or Frank Field than I do with David Cameron and the weird, obedient, meaningless quacking robots with which he has filled the Cabinet Room and the Tory benches in the House of Commons.
But the ossified party system kept them apart until now. They could not and did not combine to defeat their common enemy. And so at Election after Election, those who merely wanted to live their lives much as they had always lived them, and were baffled and pained by the unending changes imposed on them, had nowhere to turn.
The parties they thought of as their own were in fact in an alliance against them. Blair became Cameron and Cameron became Blair, and after a while it was impossible to tell which was which"
Also, apparently the starter of the petition actually did so back in May? I owe them an apology then. While I would still question the proportions they chose - and the extent to which barriers are a good idea is not accepted by everyone of course - if that is the case then clearly they didn't pick the 75% in particular purely because it was more than what was actually achieved, as I had assumed. Still no justification for parliament to apply it retrospectively, if they didn't think it a good idea before (and so presumably didn't and doesn't have the votes to get it through parliament now) but the motivation is less purely reactive.
The sterling falls will undoubtably be utterly ruinous in much the same way as they were after Black Wednesday in 1992..oh wait
There is a fundamental difference between Black Wednesday and now: in 1992 we were running only a very modest current accound deficit - c. 1.5% of GDP. In the last quarter of 2015, we were north of 7%. We also had consumer and government debt that were massively lower then as a percentage of GDP.
Unfortunately for the EU their fundamentals are even worse, with Greece bubbling to the boil.
The EU needs the stablility of a fast deal far more than we do.
I Read the dithering and delay over article 50 in that light. The economic equivalent of gunboat diplomacy.
So if we both go to shit, that's OK?
But seriously, the Eurozone is in fundamentally better shape than the UK.
* Current account surplus * Lower budget deficit * Lower government debt * Lower personal debt
That doesn't mean they'll act sensibly, but the UK's economy, dependent as it is on the wholesale importation of capital, is a little bit of a hollow facade.
To be honest RCS you seem to displaying a fair bit of 'Buyers remorse' here. Your analysis is right but the responsibility for this must surely lie with the dishonest Leave campaign - according to which we should already be soaring into sunny uphills of the post-Brexit scenario in which everything in the garden is just perfect.
The Labour Party seem determined to self destruct, they need a leader who pledges to cut immigration and they'll win a landslide at the next GE. It seems some people have learned nothing from the referendum.
There will be a cut in immigration.
The sliding pound, xenophobia and damage to the economy will shift things considerably in favour of emmigration from immigration.
The Labour Party seem determined to self destruct, they need a leader who pledges to cut immigration and they'll win a landslide at the next GE. It seems some people have learned nothing from the referendum.
Labour MPs will all fit in a coach if they don't appoint someone like that. UKIP will sweep the midlands, north and Wales. And where they don't win the Tories will win in their place...
Comments
Hilary Benn always looked untrustworthy to me and often spoke pure bollox in support of his boss, Corbyn. They deserved each other in unity and they deserve each other in division.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/25/carswell-hannan-freeze-farage-wont-stop-immigration/
It now looks as if Hilary Benn might be appearing on the Marr Show on the BBC from 9am – we’ll cover it live if so.
George Eaton, the New Statesman political editor, says Benn will be on in place of the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, who was due to be on the programme.
— George Eaton (@georgeeaton)
June 26, 2016
Hilary Benn to appear on Marr Show this morning, rather than McDonnell.
We’ve still yet to hear publicly from Corbyn, McDonnell or others close to the Labour leader.
A short statement from a Corbyn spokesman overnight merely said that Benn had “lost the confidence” of the Labour leader.
Updated at 7.45am BS
It didn't. Only 37% of the total electorate voted Leave, and of those who voted, only 52% voted Leave. They are both below the example thresholds I gave.
Turnout: 80%; result: Remain 42%; Leave 58%. So the Remainians win. And that folks is democracy...?
Must say I liked TSE's (for once) subtle pop reference in the thread header.
Unlikely? I believe that is what the money wants.
You won!
Plenty to consider here but it's polling day in Spain and the two conservative parties and the two labour parties are having a rematch following the December stalemate.
Will our little local happenings have an impact ? Might strengthen the hand of Rajoy and the PP or it might help Podemos who will probably finish second in front of PSOE.
Last time PP and Ciudadamos got 162 seats while PSOE and Podemos got 159 - Cortes has 350 seats leaving the ubiquitous Others holding the balance on 29.
The polls I've seen suggest the centre-left parties might get nearer 170 seats this time with the centre right on 158 which might allow a Podemos/PSOE Government to take over (or it might not).
Personally, I sincerely hope that we can come to an accommodation with the EU very quickly.
If Podemos/IU and PSOE combined get more seats than PP/Ciudadanos (and there's a good chance they will) that will undoubtedly spook the markets.
A perfect storm could just be brewing.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-strike-thresholds-for-important-public-services
If it is appropriate for disruptive strikes, surely it is even more appropriate for disruptive constitutional changes that are irreversible?
The EU needs the stablility of a fast deal far more than we do.
I Read the dithering and delay over article 50 in that light. The economic equivalent of gunboat diplomacy.
Anyway, can someone do a map showing where the wall is going, Apparently in Berlin it was done on postcode boundaries.
If Boris wants to be PM he should be working hard to get the Tory leadership election run quickly. If holiday money becomes expensive, mortgage rates increase, the cost of petrol goes up and people start losing jobs then his chances go down as do the Tories chance of winning the next election.
That being said, I think it's very unlikely the Socialists will want to be the junior partner to Podemos, because that would be signing their own death warrant.
I think it's entirely possible that we end up with another inconclusive election result, with both the left and right win blocks on c. 160 to 165 seats.
But seriously, the Eurozone is in fundamentally better shape than the UK.
* Current account surplus
* Lower budget deficit
* Lower government debt
* Lower personal debt
That doesn't mean they'll act sensibly, but the UK's economy, dependent as it is on the wholesale importation of capital, is a little bit of a hollow facade.
Respect ....
The NW would definitely give it a resounding welcome, although they'd demand a food blockade too. I'd be against that, as we'd have to construct guard towers to keep the starving masses penned in. A wall round Islington might be do-able though, but we'd allow shipments of cabbages from Lincolnshire (at extortionate prices).
Sorry, I assumed this damnation and hellfire misery-fest was open to all.
An interesting piece on why the psychology of the areas that voted Leave did so:
"While it may be one thing for an investment banker to understand that they ‘benefit from the EU’ in regulatory terms, it is quite another to encourage poor and culturally marginalised people to feel grateful towards the elites that sustain them through handouts, month by month. Resentment develops not in spite of this generosity, but arguably because of it. This isn’t to discredit what the EU does in terms of redistribution, but pointing to handouts is a psychologically and politically naïve basis on which to justify remaining in the EU.
In this context, the slogan ‘take back control’ was a piece of political genius. It worked on every level between the macroeconomic and the psychoanalytic. Think of what it means on an individual level to rediscover control. To be a person without control (for instance to suffer incontinence or a facial tick) is to be the butt of cruel jokes, to be potentially embarrassed in public. It potentially reduces one’s independence. What was so clever about the language of the Leave campaign was that it spoke directly to this feeling of inadequacy and embarrassment, then promised to eradicate it. The promise had nothing to do with economics or policy, but everything to do with the psychological allure of autonomy and self-respect."
http://www.perc.org.uk/project_posts/thoughts-on-the-sociology-of-brexit
But at least my job is safe. The NHS is going to get an extra £350 million per year. It must be true, I saw it on the side of a bus.
And how is this an example of democracy?
I'm slightly surprised at some of the reaction - I thought the Conservatives valued loyalty. Had it been Hammond doing the same to Cameron, would Conservative activists have been more indulgent ?
The first shapes of the post-Referendum political landscape are starting to emerge as the tide of the vote to LEAVE rolls out. The LDs want to be "the party of the 48" - fair enough, but the problem is IF we returned to the EU, as I understand it, we'd have to take the Euro, Schengen and all the rest of it. Now, that's a coherent position of sorts but I suspect not one favoured by most REMAIN supporters. I also think were Britain to seek to rejoin, some "compromises" would be done to smooth the way but no one can say that here and now.
It's the problem Nicola Sturgeon is running into - an independent Scotland can apply to join the EU but it wouldn't be on the same terms as the former UK membership. No opt outs, no rebates, the Euro and Schengen would be mandatory.
The EU needs to decide how to play this and here's the problem. If they play soft and the UK gets a "velvet divorce", it will encourage others to believe it won't be so bad to leave. Play hardball and we all suffer. I suspect the delay in invoking Article 50 is mutually beneficial as it gives both the EU and the UK time to think.
There's also the awkward truth that France elects a new President next year and Germany has a federal election also next year so the mood music during the Article 50 negotiations may change somewhat if new forces take over in Paris and Berlin.
http://gu.com/p/4mkhj?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
I forgot to congratulate Norfolk on its voting pattern. Norwich, I will forgive.
I understand your disappointment, I've grown used to being on the wrong side of any GE vote. If nothing else, this has enlivened politics tremendously. How long can it last?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGLGzRXY5Bw
Bloody proto-headbangers hey!
I see David Lammy is the first MP post referendum to poke his head up and suggest ignoring the vote. Good luck with that - there may well be a majority of MPs who want to Remain, but good luck getting 323 of them to do that, even though it's legal, particular given the strength of feeling in the northern towns and other Labour areas. Heck, some in the Tory shires might be more willing to try that given it was closer in some of those!
"For instance I, and millions of Tory voters, have far more in common with excellent Labour MPs such as Kate Hoey or Frank Field than I do with David Cameron and the weird, obedient, meaningless quacking robots with which he has filled the Cabinet Room and the Tory benches in the House of Commons.
But the ossified party system kept them apart until now. They could not and did not combine to defeat their common enemy. And so at Election after Election, those who merely wanted to live their lives much as they had always lived them, and were baffled and pained by the unending changes imposed on them, had nowhere to turn.
The parties they thought of as their own were in fact in an alliance against them. Blair became Cameron and Cameron became Blair, and after a while it was impossible to tell which was which"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3660282/Boston-Lincolngrad-saw-seething-resentment-time-finish-revolution-says-PETER-HITCHENS.html
It is, however, a disaster for the country. Pandering to xenophobia works. That's the long term takeaway from this result. We can now expect much much more of the same from our politicians.
The sliding pound, xenophobia and damage to the economy will shift things considerably in favour of emmigration from immigration.
So it is serious, but it's difficult to take it all seriously at the moment. It's as if I'd fallen down a rabbit hole.