Most likely the Labour voters DID actually vote to remain overall anyway (Though not the wwc Labour). Tory + UKIP + GE Non voters got leave over the line.
37% Labour voted Leave. We wouldn't have won without them. Much higher than the polls were predicting.
Not really. Polls were predicting 65:35. It was 63:37. The turnout was also lower than Tories / UKIP. The Tory shire vote was higher than expected.
Oh I though most phone polls had it below 30%. Anyway the DEC2 plus half of C1 won it for Leave, much more than Tory shires.
That is possible. However, the Labour split was more or less as expected. Worse, in the Northen heartlands but made up in London to an extent.Leave won because their turnout was higher. Remember 72% was not expected..
Do u think these first time voters will continue voting? Could be a boon for Corbyn if they do although I suspect most live in safe Labour seats.
Kirklees voted 55% Leave. Did the tragic death of Jo Cox have no effect on the election. Indeed as terrible as it sounds did not campaigning in the last few days stop the economic argument being made?
Kirklees voted 55% Leave. Did the tragic death of Jo Cox have no effect on the election. Indeed as terrible as it sounds did not campaigning in the last few days stop the economic argument being made?
I think plausibly the assassination of Jo Cox won it for Leave. It made people unwilling to admit that they planned to vote Leave, making the polling look like Remain was going to win. If it had looked like Leave was going to win there would have been a market freak-out *before* the vote instead of after, which would probably have swung enough voters to Remain.
Just placed a small bet on Andrea Leadsom as next Tory leader at 16/1 with Betfair Exchange. Looks like she's third favourite with most bookies at present. She's 6/1 with William Hill, 8/1 with Ladbrokes.
Kirklees voted 55% Leave. Did the tragic death of Jo Cox have no effect on the election. Indeed as terrible as it sounds did not campaigning in the last few days stop the economic argument being made?
I think plausibly the assassination of Jo Cox won it for Leave. It made people unwilling to admit that they planned to vote Leave, making the polling look like Remain was going to win. If it had looked like Leave was going to win there would have been a market freak-out *before* the vote instead of after, which would probably have swung enough voters to Remain.
Fantastically twisted logic!
Leave were probably 10% ahead at the time and coasting for an easy victory with lots of postal votes piling up.
So despite your wonderfully torturous argument, no, if anything it narrowed the inevitable victory.
Leave was always going to win unless Labour managed to change their core support.
Oh and The Sun. Go against the Sun and lose. It still wields enormous clout.
Kirklees voted 55% Leave. Did the tragic death of Jo Cox have no effect on the election. Indeed as terrible as it sounds did not campaigning in the last few days stop the economic argument being made?
I think plausibly the assassination of Jo Cox won it for Leave. It made people unwilling to admit that they planned to vote Leave, making the polling look like Remain was going to win. If it had looked like Leave was going to win there would have been a market freak-out *before* the vote instead of after, which would probably have swung enough voters to Remain.
That's entirely possible. But the biggest reason why Leave won is because a very large portion of the country felt ignored by the political classes, felt like losers from globalisation, and wanted a change.
Immigration was a manifestation of that problem.
But, of course, getting rid of the immigrants doesn't solve the underlying economic problems of the Rochdales, the Sunderlands, and the like.
The issue is that the UK economy has become far too dependent on London and the service and technology industries of the South East. We have also replaced exporting things, with importing capital. As a country, we have an appalling savings rate, and that's why we have a major current account problem. We also have one of the highest rates of personal debt in the world. (We're at something like 180%, against France, Germany and Italy, all sub-60%.)
We are therefore uniquely vulnerable. And this is why we need to reach an agreement with the EU as soon as possible. If our savings rate has to shoot up to deal with foreigners no longer wishing to put money in the UK, it will be extremely painful. (The best comparison is Spain during the Eurozone crisis. Prior to the crisis, it had run a huge current account deficit, and seen personal debt levels go through the roof. The rapid adjustment, although not cushioned by the Sterling depreciation we'll have, was extremely painful.)
I would hope the agreement will look like EFTA/EEA, with us leaving the political parts of the EU, as well as the CFP/CAP, losing the supremacy of the ECJ, being able to discriminate (in terms of benefits, etc.) in favour of own citizens, and having reduced payments to Brussels.
Just saw Caerphilly had a turnout of 70% whilst Cambridge had a turnout at only 2% higher! Wtf is going on !
It was Cameron's decision to hold the vote during university holidays.
That kinda explains Cambridge bucking its trend but Caerphilly explains why the polls are useless. Different people vote in different elections.
Caerphilly has always been a very safe Labour seat so usually a lot of people simply don't bother to vote because the result is a foregone conclusion. In a referendum like this one they finally had a chance to make a difference one way or the other. That explains the high turnout.
The Telegraph: A hard and uncertain road lies ahead in Britain's long march away from European Union. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwsIiQ3SU < From one of the few Brexiters who told the truth before the vote. Even harder truths now.
Kirklees voted 55% Leave. Did the tragic death of Jo Cox have no effect on the election. Indeed as terrible as it sounds did not campaigning in the last few days stop the economic argument being made?
Maybe I'm missing something, but I still can't see why the tragic death of Jo Cox would have any effect, one way or the other, on the result of the referendum. It had nothing whatever to do with it. I think the result would have been the same if it hadn't happened.
Kirklees voted 55% Leave. Did the tragic death of Jo Cox have no effect on the election. Indeed as terrible as it sounds did not campaigning in the last few days stop the economic argument being made?
I think plausibly the assassination of Jo Cox won it for Leave. It made people unwilling to admit that they planned to vote Leave, making the polling look like Remain was going to win. If it had looked like Leave was going to win there would have been a market freak-out *before* the vote instead of after, which would probably have swung enough voters to Remain.
That's entirely possible. But the biggest reason why Leave won is because a very large portion of the country felt ignored by the political classes, felt like losers from globalisation, and wanted a change.
Immigration was a manifestation of that problem.
But, of course, getting rid of the immigrants doesn't solve the underlying economic problems of the Rochdales, the Sunderlands, and the like.
The issue is that the UK economy has become far too dependent on London and the service and technology industries of the South East. We have also replaced exporting things, with importing capital. As a country, we have an appalling savings rate, and that's why we have a major current account problem. We also have one of the highest rates of personal debt in the world. (We're at something like 180%, against France, Germany and Italy, all sub-60%.)
We are therefore uniquely vulnerable. And this is why we need to reach an agreement with the EU as soon as possible. If our savings rate has to shoot up to deal with foreigners no longer wishing to put money in the UK, it will be extremely painful. (The best comparison is Spain during the Eurozone crisis. Prior to the crisis, it had run a huge current account deficit, and seen personal debt levels go through the roof. The rapid adjustment, although not cushioned by the Sterling depreciation we'll have, was extremely painful.)
I would hope the agreement will look like EFTA/EEA, with us leaving the political parts of the EU, as well as the CFP/CAP, losing the supremacy of the ECJ, being able to discriminate (in terms of benefits, etc.) in favour of own citizens, and having reduced payments to Brussels.
Yup, I don't disagree on the underlying causes. When you have a tight result there are a lot of little things you can point to and correctly say would have swung it if they had/hadn't happened, but there are also the big factors that got the thing within flippable distance in the first place.
Quite true. It really is laughable how both parties are ignoring the election-winning vacuum on the Europhile, liberal, pro-business centre ground
The "election-winning Europhile liberal pro-business centre ground" which......just lost a de-facto election two days ago.
Except that over the last year or so the Tories have proved themselves to be hard-hearted, mean-spirited, incompetent so and sos, out of touch with ordinary people, that we always knew they were. Not Europhile, not liberal, not pro-business (except big business), not centre - and so not election-winning.
I would hope the agreement will look like EFTA/EEA, with us leaving the political parts of the EU, as well as the CFP/CAP, losing the supremacy of the ECJ, being able to discriminate (in terms of benefits, etc.) in favour of own citizens, and having reduced payments to Brussels.
I agree with that. I don't think that such an agreement will stick, long term. But it is a useful transition state, particularly if it were made for a term-limited period (10 years?). Might also keep Scotland in the Union - not that I care long-term, but dealing with two upheavals at once is a little much for any country.
I thought Brexit would lead to political chaos, but i didn't realise this chaotic.
Do you approve of the chaos?
I thought the economic and political uncertainties would feed off each other and actually the politics world be the bigger factor, making the economic slump worse. In fact the political crisis is worse than I thought. We need to add constitutional crisis into the mix. The fact there is no functioning governance makes the break up of the United Kingdom more likely.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Quite true. It really is laughable how both parties are ignoring the election-winning vacuum on the Europhile, liberal, pro-business centre ground
The "election-winning Europhile liberal pro-business centre ground" which......just lost a de-facto election two days ago.
Except that over the last year or so the Tories have proved themselves to be hard-hearted, mean-spirited, incompetent so and sos, out of touch with ordinary people, that we always knew they were. Not Europhile, not liberal, not pro-business (except big business), not centre - and so not election-winning.
It might not have been quite so bad if they’d had an opposition that was a bit more in touch, too.
Corbyn will be fine. He'll stay as Labour leader until he chooses to stand down. Labour members - selfish, stupid and stubborn - would never contemplate voting against him in a leadership election. They like his open borders, anti-Trident, pro-IRA, pro-Hamas, "human rights" focus, and share his disdain for patriotism. That such views are completely at odds with those held by the vast majority of people in this country - including erstwhile and actual Labour voters - is neither here nor there to them. What matters is what they believe in and there can be no compromise. If that means years more right wing Tory government and a further erosion of living standards for ordinary working people, so be it. It is hard to describe just how sickeningly contemptible they are, really. But they are not going to change. A new party on the centre left is needed. Labour is finished.
Corbyn will be fine. He'll stay as Labour leader until he chooses to stand down. Labour members - selfish, stupid and stubborn - would never contemplate voting against him in a leadership election. They like his open borders, anti-Trident, pro-IRA, pro-Hamas, "human rights" focus, and share his disdain for patriotism. That such views are completely at odds with those held by the vast majority of people in this country - including erstwhile and actual Labour voters - is neither here nor there to them. What matters is what they believe in and there can be no compromise. If that means years more right wing Tory government and a further erosion of living standards for ordinary working people, so be it. It is hard to describe just how sickeningly contemptible they are, really. But they are not going to change. A new party on the centre left is needed. Labour is finished.
Agreed. And I'm promising to swallow ( some ) of my liberal principles and join it when it comes if it does.
I would hope the agreement will look like EFTA/EEA, with us leaving the political parts of the EU, as well as the CFP/CAP, losing the supremacy of the ECJ, being able to discriminate (in terms of benefits, etc.) in favour of own citizens, and having reduced payments to Brussels.
I agree with that. I don't think that such an agreement will stick, long term. But it is a useful transition state, particularly if it were made for a term-limited period (10 years?). Might also keep Scotland in the Union - not that I care long-term, but dealing with two upheavals at once is a little much for any country.
The problem is that any new agreement will be as binding as the current one. The EU is not going to sign off on anything that the UK/England could just walk away from. Markets won't buy it either as all it would do is prolong uncertainty.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
It is possible - albeit unlikely - that if Article 50 is delayed, there is a general election, and a pro-EU government comes in thanks to buyers remorse, that Brexit could be cancelled.
You'd need to offer me pretty long odds to make me bet on that
The left needs to start saying " We accept the result completely. But the deal needs to include X ". X being a growing list of things that will search the WWC communities from their right wing Brexiters. Our only tactical hope is accept Brexit in General but a populist opposition to Brexit in right wing particulars.
Corbyn will be fine. He'll stay as Labour leader until he chooses to stand down. Labour members - selfish, stupid and stubborn - would never contemplate voting against him in a leadership election. They like his open borders, anti-Trident, pro-IRA, pro-Hamas, "human rights" focus, and share his disdain for patriotism. That such views are completely at odds with those held by the vast majority of people in this country - including erstwhile and actual Labour voters - is neither here nor there to them. What matters is what they believe in and there can be no compromise. If that means years more right wing Tory government and a further erosion of living standards for ordinary working people, so be it. It is hard to describe just how sickeningly contemptible they are, really. But they are not going to change. A new party on the centre left is needed. Labour is finished.
Agreed. And I'm promising to swallow ( some ) of my liberal principles and join it when it comes if it does.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
It is possible - albeit unlikely - that if Article 50 is delayed, there is a general election, and a pro-EU government comes in thanks to buyers remorse, that Brexit could be cancelled.
You'd need to offer me pretty long odds to make me bet on that
I agree sadly. The clarity of the question, turnout and winning margin offer so little wiggle room.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
There is a gamble here, but it is absolutely the issue to go after Corbyn on.
Are you sure? A poll recently showed that most Labout voters didn't know that their party was for Remain. If Labour carries on like this, there is surely a danger that they might find out?
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Yeah, by causing splits in the party instead of standing back and allowing the Tories to self-destruct.
"NON! EU slaps down Sturgeon: SNP leader dramatically announces she wants 'immediate discussions' to STAY in EU... but she is humiliated as Brussels says 'No, that's not how it works'
Nicola Sturgeon said she wanted to 'protect Scotland's place in the EU'
But Brussels civil servants snubbed her, saying whole of UK must exit
Sturgeon called for another Scotland referendum during negotiations
But Brussels said if it voted to leave, it would have to re-apply for EU
The EU yesterday dealt a devastating blow to Nicola Sturgeon’s new bid for independence – by ruling out any prospect of Scotland retaining its membership when Britain leaves.
After the Brexit vote, the SNP leader said she was seeking ‘immediate discussions’ with Brussels to ‘protect Scotland’s place in the EU’.
But The Mail on Sunday can reveal that civil servants in Brussels have already ruled that the whole of the UK must exit the EU following Thursday’s shock vote.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
If 75% of the electorate have to have voted and either "Remain" or "Leave" need to achieve "60%" then what happens if these conditions are not met? By definition we can neither remain nor leave....
On topic their seem to be powerful psychological parallels between the Brexit vote and the Corbyn phenomenon. Firstly both seem to be a howl of rage against Globalisation and the Crash coalescing around a fringe political position to win. Secondly they are both post reality politics. Election Results to Corbynism being the " Experts" to Brexit. Thirdly the ' Poorer vs Purer ' impulse. The desire to suicide bomb existing structures for authenticity being more important than practical outcome. We must hope Brexit is doing better for Britain in 9 months time than Corbynism is doing for Labour 9 months into his Leadership.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Yeah, by causing splits in the party instead of standing back and allowing the Tories to self-destruct.
They are able to tear themselves to pieces safe in the knowledge that Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader, thus making Labour unelectable.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Calling it Tories least bad option party presumably
What now happens to the Heathrow decision that was expected in the next fortnight? Boris is massively anti and DC is a lame duck. The chancellor has dissappeared and has lost credibility. I would not be surprised if it is put back
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Liz Kendall's ' Brixton ' speech during the leadership campaign citing John Wycliffe was fantastic. It's where Britain's centre left needed to go.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Liz Kendall's ' Brixton ' speech during the leadership campaign citing John Wycliffe was fantastic. It's where Britain's centre left needed to go.
4% agreed. BTW fantastic and Liz Kendall should never be in the same sentence. Unless it's LK only got 4%, fantastic.
What now happens to the Heathrow decision that was expected in the next fortnight? Boris is massively anti and DC is a lame duck. The chancellor has dissappeared and has lost credibility. I would not be surprised if it is put back
If Boris becomes PM we can implement his proposed alternative. We could call it Brexit rather than Boris Island.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Calling it Tories least bad option party presumably
Like your support for Corbyn I'm afraid that makes no sense.
What now happens to the Heathrow decision that was expected in the next fortnight? Boris is massively anti and DC is a lame duck. The chancellor has dissappeared and has lost credibility. I would not be surprised if it is put back
Do we need to expand Heathrow post Brexit? Maybe we should be thinking of which London airport we can shut.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Calling it Tories least bad option party presumably
Like your support for Corbyn I'm afraid that makes no sense.
The EU isn't going to allow us to remain even if we wanted to so it's all a bit of wishful thinking.
That could only possibly be true after Britain has invoked Article 50.
We will be forced to invoke article 50.
By what means?
A way will be found. I sincerely doubt there is any turning back, the EU is in no mood to compromise.
There is literally no way in the treaty for another members article 50 declaration to be forced.
Interesting. And hence, I guess, what appeared to be a hint panic in the faces of the EU bigwigs...the U.K. could keep them in limbo for ages!
I had imagined it might suit the EU to spin things out in the hope that something changes and we never leave. But it seems they don't want us at all, now. Having seen them on YouTube having to listen to Farage's entertaining but offensive EU parliament speeches for years and years, I suppose this is just human nature, and indeed probably their main motivation: I think I heard Junker say yesterday that the UKIP MEPs were no longer welcome from today?
But I still don't understand the Guardian's point about no-one pressing the button. Boris may not like the legacy that is taking shape for him, but he jumped off the cliff and it is too late to go back up to the top now. Surely he, or any other Tory, will have to make the promise and then keep it?
If 75% of the electorate have to have voted and either "Remain" or "Leave" need to achieve "60%" then what happens if these conditions are not met? By definition we can neither remain nor leave....
:is-someone-yanking-our-chain:
The Scottish devolution referendum in 1979 had a condition that 40% of the total electorate had to vote to make it valid. In the absence of that, nothing changes - and that is what happened.
The US Senate requires a 60% vote to avoid legislation being blocked. If it doesn't get it, nothing changes.
For something as important as this that is permanent and irreversible, there should have been a higher benchmark than 50%. There wasn't because Cameron was confident that he could win over 50%.
It is now up to MPs to block this as the referendum was only advisory and this petition will strengthen their arm. We don't actually need a second referendum. MPs should say "Thank you for your advice but we are not taking it." Some but not all of the 52% would be upset. I suspect a majority of the country would be pleased.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Calling it Tories least bad option party presumably
Like your support for Corbyn I'm afraid that makes no sense.
Your position.
My position is that I want the Tories out of power. You don't. We disagree.
What now happens to the Heathrow decision that was expected in the next fortnight? Boris is massively anti and DC is a lame duck. The chancellor has dissappeared and has lost credibility. I would not be surprised if it is put back
Do we need to expand Heathrow post Brexit? Maybe we should be thinking of which London airport we can shut.
IIUC it doesn't quite touch onto the M25. Assuming that's going to be the border of London, it'll need to be expanded up to there, then I guess you put London customs and immigration either just on the London side or in the tunnel under the M25.
What now happens to the Heathrow decision that was expected in the next fortnight? Boris is massively anti and DC is a lame duck. The chancellor has dissappeared and has lost credibility. I would not be surprised if it is put back
Do we need to expand Heathrow post Brexit? Maybe we should be thinking of which London airport we can shut.
What now happens to the Heathrow decision that was expected in the next fortnight? Boris is massively anti and DC is a lame duck. The chancellor has dissappeared and has lost credibility. I would not be surprised if it is put back
Do we need to expand Heathrow post Brexit? Maybe we should be thinking of which London airport we can shut.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Calling it Tories least bad option party presumably
Like your support for Corbyn I'm afraid that makes no sense.
Your position.
The intra-party squabbling this morning is funny but in the context of the bigger issues facing a divided country I find it quite grotesque. I suspect the voters might too.
So now he have a loony left Labour party and a Tory Party that will be run by a loony right wingnut..
Sub optimal I am 1/8 Swiss on my fathers side, can I get a Swiss passport?
I'd be interested to see if we could get ' Grandfather Rights ' written into the Brexit deal. Every UK citizen alive on Brexit Day should be able to keep their EU Citizenship if they wish. It would be a nice gesture to Remaining. However I can't see it being a priority in negotiations or why the EU would grant it.
What now happens to the Heathrow decision that was expected in the next fortnight? Boris is massively anti and DC is a lame duck. The chancellor has dissappeared and has lost credibility. I would not be surprised if it is put back
Do we need to expand Heathrow post Brexit? Maybe we should be thinking of which London airport we can shut.
Spot on - and yet you voted for it. Heigh ho.
There are always opportunities in disruption. I suspect that thought guided a few Leave votes.
If 75% of the electorate have to have voted and either "Remain" or "Leave" need to achieve "60%" then what happens if these conditions are not met? By definition we can neither remain nor leave....
:is-someone-yanking-our-chain:
The Scottish devolution referendum in 1979 had a condition that 40% of the total electorate had to vote to make it valid. In the absence of that, nothing changes - and that is what happened.
The US Senate requires a 60% vote to avoid legislation being blocked. If it doesn't get it, nothing changes.
For something as important as this that is permanent and irreversible, there should have been a higher benchmark than 50%. There wasn't because Cameron was confident that he could win over 50%.
It is now up to MPs to block this as the referendum was only advisory and this petition will strengthen their arm. We don't actually need a second referendum. MPs should say "Thank you for your advice but we are not taking it." Some but not all of the 52% would be upset. I suspect a majority of the country would be pleased.
You give two examples of referendum thresholds, both of which this referendum blew out of the water and then state that Parliament should do something which is as dangerous as the UK government failing to bring into force the Irish Home rule act that had passed both houses, without the mitigation of world war one kicking off.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Calling it Tories least bad option party presumably
Like your support for Corbyn I'm afraid that makes no sense.
Your position.
The intra-party squabbling this morning is funny but in the context of the bigger issues facing a divided country I find it quite grotesque. I suspect the voters might too.
I think the press are making a real mistake in focusing on that this morning and not the real wider sense of crisis. It may because the economic changes are still are little too intangible. This will change itself soon.
What now happens to the Heathrow decision that was expected in the next fortnight? Boris is massively anti and DC is a lame duck. The chancellor has dissappeared and has lost credibility. I would not be surprised if it is put back
Do we need to expand Heathrow post Brexit? Maybe we should be thinking of which London airport we can shut.
IIUC it doesn't quite touch onto the M25. Assuming that's going to be the border of London, it'll need to be expanded up to there, then I guess you put London customs and immigration either just on the London side or in the tunnel under the M25.
The border will need to be shortened on the East side, so as to allow those parts of London that voted Out to stick with their original decision. The big question is whether that should use the M11 as the dividing line or the A10.
The M11 would make more sense, TBH, although it would mean Woodford, Loughton and Theydon Bois remained inside London and the EU.
You would need a new river crossing where the Woolwich ferry is right now, and then you could rejoin at the A20. In this way, the most Eurosceptic parts of London would be allowed to stay outside the EU.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Calling it Tories least bad option party presumably
Like your support for Corbyn I'm afraid that makes no sense.
Your position.
The intra-party squabbling this morning is funny but in the context of the bigger issues facing a divided country I find it quite grotesque. I suspect the voters might too.
I think the press are making a real mistake in focusing on that this morning and not the real wider sense of crisis. It may because the economic changes are still are little too intangible. This will change itself soon.
I'd guess Panelbase is more accurate - and to me the project doesn't look to be much of a runner - Scotland is pretty much like the rest of the UK here - hopelessly divided.
If 75% of the electorate have to have voted and either "Remain" or "Leave" need to achieve "60%" then what happens if these conditions are not met? By definition we can neither remain nor leave....
:is-someone-yanking-our-chain:
The Scottish devolution referendum in 1979 had a condition that 40% of the total electorate had to vote to make it valid. In the absence of that, nothing changes - and that is what happened.
The US Senate requires a 60% vote to avoid legislation being blocked. If it doesn't get it, nothing changes.
For something as important as this that is permanent and irreversible, there should have been a higher benchmark than 50%. There wasn't because Cameron was confident that he could win over 50%.
It is now up to MPs to block this as the referendum was only advisory and this petition will strengthen their arm. We don't actually need a second referendum. MPs should say "Thank you for your advice but we are not taking it." Some but not all of the 52% would be upset. I suspect a majority of the country would be pleased.
Jezza being assailed by a bunch of soft Jessies. People asking why the Leave campaign isn't negotiating with the EU (despite the executive power remaining with Cameron and his cabinet). No one asking why the Government had no contingency plan for a Leave vote (The CS would have pressed for one).
For once last night, the BBC did show some bias (but it was very good during the month before voting). A children's petition causing excitement and the possibility of never going ahead with Article 50 decision being taken seriously. Sorry, lads, dream on.
Nicola taking advantage, but she's getting them excited that the EU would welcome them with open arms. Not so sure.
The weasels and stoats milling round but unsure what to do.
I wonder if we are heading for a National Government of pro-EU MPs.
The referendum was a clear question, had a high turn out and Leave won decisively. There are ( quite unlikely ) avenues for never invoking Article 50 but they'll have to be democratic. Another election probably after enough time and chaos to trigger buyers remorse.
Corbyn seems to be pushing for Article 50 be be invoked quickly, a stance that seems to be unpopular with the Labour Blairite inners and many in the leave campaign. No wonder there is a campaign to remove him.
Blairite = someone who wants Labour to have a chance of winning the next general election.
Good luck with your new party. Liz Kendall for leader and Saint Tony foreign secretary would be good
Anyone keen to see the Tories lose power is welcome. Obviously you will not be joining up.
Calling it Tories least bad option party presumably
Like your support for Corbyn I'm afraid that makes no sense.
Your position.
The intra-party squabbling this morning is funny but in the context of the bigger issues facing a divided country I find it quite grotesque. I suspect the voters might too.
Grotesque, but essential. Both parties campaigned to Remain. They need to adjust to the new reality. Britain just voted to be an inward looking offshore backwater.
Another delaying tactic I'm reading about is one or more of the Devolved Assemblies/Parliaments refusing legislative consent to the repeal of the European Communities Act. The grounds being European Law is written into the devolution settlements. Though presumably Westminster would just have to amend the relavent Devolution Acts first to get round it.
Comments
Benn cant claim to be representing anyone anymore but himself, and that holds true for most Labour MP's at the moment.
That kinda explains Cambridge bucking its trend but Caerphilly explains why the polls are useless. Different people vote in different elections.
Leave were probably 10% ahead at the time and coasting for an easy victory with lots of postal votes piling up.
So despite your wonderfully torturous argument, no, if anything it narrowed the inevitable victory.
Leave was always going to win unless Labour managed to change their core support.
Oh and The Sun. Go against the Sun and lose. It still wields enormous clout.
Immigration was a manifestation of that problem.
But, of course, getting rid of the immigrants doesn't solve the underlying economic problems of the Rochdales, the Sunderlands, and the like.
The issue is that the UK economy has become far too dependent on London and the service and technology industries of the South East. We have also replaced exporting things, with importing capital. As a country, we have an appalling savings rate, and that's why we have a major current account problem. We also have one of the highest rates of personal debt in the world. (We're at something like 180%, against France, Germany and Italy, all sub-60%.)
We are therefore uniquely vulnerable. And this is why we need to reach an agreement with the EU as soon as possible. If our savings rate has to shoot up to deal with foreigners no longer wishing to put money in the UK, it will be extremely painful. (The best comparison is Spain during the Eurozone crisis. Prior to the crisis, it had run a huge current account deficit, and seen personal debt levels go through the roof. The rapid adjustment, although not cushioned by the Sterling depreciation we'll have, was extremely painful.)
I would hope the agreement will look like EFTA/EEA, with us leaving the political parts of the EU, as well as the CFP/CAP, losing the supremacy of the ECJ, being able to discriminate (in terms of benefits, etc.) in favour of own citizens, and having reduced payments to Brussels.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/25/labour-leadership-jeremy-corbyn-must-go
Peter Hitchens whom I normally can't abide is very good here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnCvl2T_o5o
I can't see much upside in this.
Figures released under the Freedom of Information Act reveal the extraordinary lengths to which the government is going to prevent the civil case against it, former home secretary Jack Straw, and former MI6 spy chief Sir Mark Allen coming to court.
I doubt Corbyn will be busting a gut to help Jack Straw.
Jeremy has a knack for stealing the headlines from the Tories. – He’ll go far.
Monday is the Committee stage of the Finance Bill involving the whole House.
http://calendar.parliament.uk/calendar/Commons/All/2016/6/27/Daily
Ditto on Tuesday. I assume Osborne is going to lead it. Will he produce his revenge budget? Will there be amendments in the light of Brexit?
Wednesday is an Opposition half day debate - subject yet to be announced.
You'd need to offer me pretty long odds to make me bet on that
Turnout May 2015 - 36,000
Arf!
https://twitter.com/skydata/status/746700869656256512
But all is well. They have signed a petition instead...
Nicola Sturgeon said she wanted to 'protect Scotland's place in the EU'
But Brussels civil servants snubbed her, saying whole of UK must exit
Sturgeon called for another Scotland referendum during negotiations
But Brussels said if it voted to leave, it would have to re-apply for EU
The EU yesterday dealt a devastating blow to Nicola Sturgeon’s new bid for independence – by ruling out any prospect of Scotland retaining its membership when Britain leaves.
After the Brexit vote, the SNP leader said she was seeking ‘immediate discussions’ with Brussels to ‘protect Scotland’s place in the EU’.
But The Mail on Sunday can reveal that civil servants in Brussels have already ruled that the whole of the UK must exit the EU following Thursday’s shock vote.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3660320/NON-EU-slaps-Sturgeon-SNP-leader-dramatically-announces-wants-immediate-discussions-STAY-EU-humiliated-Brussels-says-No-s-not-works.html
is usually
"Er, no, that's it".
If 75% of the electorate have to have voted and either "Remain" or "Leave" need to achieve "60%" then what happens if these conditions are not met? By definition we can neither remain nor leave....
:is-someone-yanking-our-chain:
Boris is massively anti and DC is a lame duck.
The chancellor has dissappeared and has lost credibility.
I would not be surprised if it is put back
Works for a PR company that represents totalitarian government to boot, all of whom are hostile to gay rights.
https://twitter.com/arron_banks/status/746829833662009344
I had imagined it might suit the EU to spin things out in the hope that something changes and we never leave. But it seems they don't want us at all, now. Having seen them on YouTube having to listen to Farage's entertaining but offensive EU parliament speeches for years and years, I suppose this is just human nature, and indeed probably their main motivation: I think I heard Junker say yesterday that the UKIP MEPs were no longer welcome from today?
But I still don't understand the Guardian's point about no-one pressing the button. Boris may not like the legacy that is taking shape for him, but he jumped off the cliff and it is too late to go back up to the top now. Surely he, or any other Tory, will have to make the promise and then keep it?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1979
The US Senate requires a 60% vote to avoid legislation being blocked. If it doesn't get it, nothing changes.
For something as important as this that is permanent and irreversible, there should have been a higher benchmark than 50%. There wasn't because Cameron was confident that he could win over 50%.
It is now up to MPs to block this as the referendum was only advisory and this petition will strengthen their arm. We don't actually need a second referendum. MPs should say "Thank you for your advice but we are not taking it." Some but not all of the 52% would be upset. I suspect a majority of the country would be pleased.
Sub optimal
I am 1/8 Swiss on my fathers side, can I get a Swiss passport?
Pays your money...
Project smear:
Boris Johnson hit by revenge plot as PM loyalists take aim at his turbulent private life
Allies of David Cameron coming at PM-in-waiting with simple message: You've killed off the PM, we'll get you
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1342796/boris-johnson-hit-by-revenge-plot-as-pm-loyalists-take-aim-at-his-turbulent-private-life/
You don't get the vote until you are 40. Those eligible then get a number of votes, equivalent to A x B x C where:
A = voter's age
B = voter's IQ
C = amount of tax paid since age 16
Comedy Gold.
The M11 would make more sense, TBH, although it would mean Woodford, Loughton and Theydon Bois remained inside London and the EU.
You would need a new river crossing where the Woolwich ferry is right now, and then you could rejoin at the A20. In this way, the most Eurosceptic parts of London would be allowed to stay outside the EU.
"% who got through our final #EUref poll"
actually mean?
http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/24/remember-that-time-nigel-farage-said-52-48-votes-should-lead-to-second-referendum-5963900/
Jezza being assailed by a bunch of soft Jessies. People asking why the Leave campaign isn't negotiating with the EU (despite the executive power remaining with Cameron and his cabinet). No one asking why the Government had no contingency plan for a Leave vote (The CS would have pressed for one).
For once last night, the BBC did show some bias (but it was very good during the month before voting). A children's petition causing excitement and the possibility of never going ahead with Article 50 decision being taken seriously. Sorry, lads, dream on.
Nicola taking advantage, but she's getting them excited that the EU would welcome them with open arms. Not so sure.
The weasels and stoats milling round but unsure what to do.
I wish we'd had this referendum years ago.
Britain just voted to be an inward looking offshore backwater.