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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » … And the winners of the EUref polling race look set to be

SystemSystem Posts: 12,471
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » … And the winners of the EUref polling race look set to be TNS and Opinium

Once the final polls came our I wrote that if LEAVE did it it would be as big a polling disaster as GE2015. In fact then none of the final polls were in range. At least this time two of them, TNS and Opinium, got very close and were showing LEAVE leads.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,439
    2nd :)
  • Populus = joke
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,733
    Marine Le Pen concelebrates victory.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    Gisela a proper stateswoman. Can she be in the new government please?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,428

    Populus = joke

    A disaster, a mile outside any confidence interval.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    The 5/1 on Ladbrokes for next Indyref before 2020 appears to have been suspended.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    Asian markets already routed, Carney expected to make statement immediately after Cameron and before markets open. Japan finance minister 'very concerned'.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,428
    JK Rowling for Independence - Sindy NAILED ON now.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,439
    Pulpstar said:

    Populus = joke

    A disaster, a mile outside any confidence interval.
    TNS and Opinium though! Phwoar.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,236
    Pulpstar said:

    JK Rowling for Independence - Sindy NAILED ON now.

    That's a turnip for the books.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Mike someone did that EU. Leave poll which put it 52:48 for Leave? Was it Survation?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
  • Bet there is a lot of head banging against desks/walls going in the City right now
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Thanks Mike for such a wonderful resource.

    Yes I think we all had a great night, you might want to put the "Donate" button up over the weekend!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,995

    Populus = joke

    The Better In campaign were using Populus as their private pollster. :lol:
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    Sterling biggest one day plunge against dollar ever, dwarfing even Black Wednesday .
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Populus = joke

    A disaster, a mile outside any confidence interval.
    Populus is Andrew Cooper's company. They said that the AB's would win it. Wrong, it was the working class who decided this.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Betfair had Remain as favourites for about 4 hours longer than made any sense.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488

    Mike someone did that EU. Leave poll which put it 52:48 for Leave? Was it Survation?

    i'd love to have more on this poll. Apparently the sampling was 21-22 June so not even on polling day.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:

    Betfair had Remain as favourites for about 4 hours longer than made any sense.

    Good, wasn't it?
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Stupidity is the only word, I'm afraid.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,236
    Thrak said:

    Sterling biggest one day plunge against dollar ever, dwarfing even Black Wednesday .

    I doubt Janet Yellen will get any sleep tonight.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Mathematical win point reached. Leave win it! :D
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,046
    Thrak said:

    Sterling biggest one day plunge against dollar ever, dwarfing even Black Wednesday .

    We just have to hope this is temporary. If it isn't we're in serious trouble.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,428
    AndyJS said:

    Betfair had Remain as favourites for about 4 hours longer than made any sense.

    Thanks for encouraging me to keep going on the betting, made more money than I otherwise would.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,595
    Andrea Leadsom just rubbed it in Dimbleby and Thornbury's faces.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    this should be the end of fixed line polling in this country once and for all.

    The biggest political earthquake since 1945. And the common thread is that you don't ignore the 'common' people. Labour heartlands just like the soldiers coming home won this.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    AndyJS said:

    Betfair had Remain as favourites for about 4 hours longer than made any sense.

    Same as last year at the GE. There's obviously a lot of gamblers that only work office hours when these things happen. Not complaining!
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    LEAVE HAS WON.

    Now over 50% and can't be beat.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,995

    Thrak said:

    Sterling biggest one day plunge against dollar ever, dwarfing even Black Wednesday .

    We just have to hope this is temporary. If it isn't we're in serious trouble.

    No need to be so fatalist.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Internet pollsters won I assume.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,439
    edited June 2016
    Who would have thunk leave would be a million votes ahead?
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Rather odd to see lefties wailing about possible falls in the stock market.
  • tlg86 said:

    Andrea Leadsom just rubbed it in Dimbleby and Thornbury's faces.

    Missed that what did she say?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2016
    Time to start building these new hospitals we were promised.

    That's what the country voted for.

    Free stuff.

    Promised by Boris, Gove & Co.

    Where are we going to build next weeks hospital?

    Stoke?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Betfair had Remain as favourites for about 4 hours longer than made any sense.

    Thanks for encouraging me to keep going on the betting, made more money than I otherwise would.
    I hope the spreadsheet was useful. It wasn't perfect but did the job, mostly.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,733

    Rather odd to see lefties wailing about possible falls in the stock market.

    There was never an 8 per cent fall in FTSE 100 since the last Tory government.
    It's on you.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,753
    edited June 2016
    This could easily be the end of the entire EU. It's not at all fanciful to see France and the Netherlands having referendums too in light of this.

    Also, if Juncker does not resign he must be sacked.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Thrak said:

    Sterling biggest one day plunge against dollar ever, dwarfing even Black Wednesday .

    We just have to hope this is temporary. If it isn't we're in serious trouble.
    Today will be volatile, but it will all calm down soon enough. If the FTSE opens 10% down there will be a load of buyers looking for value.
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Thrak said:

    Sterling biggest one day plunge against dollar ever, dwarfing even Black Wednesday .

    Beards down 22
    Tight, short trousers with no socks down 38
    Braces down 7
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204
    Thanks Mike, TSE and all who sail in the good ship PB - a great night.

    Please do put the donate button up - I have some winning tithing to do!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    ydoethur said:

    This could easily be the end of the entire EU. It's not at all fanciful to see France and the Netherlands having referendums too in light of this.

    Also, if Juncker does not resign he must be sacked.

    Who can sack Junker, is there even a process for that..?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,733
    ydoethur said:

    This could easily be the end of the entire EU. It's not at all fanciful to see France and the Netherlands having referendums too in light of this.

    Also, if Juncker does not resign he must be sacked.

    It probably won't be. He probably won't. In any case, the UK doesn't get a say in these matters any more.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,593
    AndyJS said:

    Betfair had Remain as favourites for about 4 hours longer than made any sense.

    I'd like to know who laid all that money for Remain.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,753
    Blueberry said:

    Thrak said:

    Sterling biggest one day plunge against dollar ever, dwarfing even Black Wednesday .

    Beards down 22
    Tight, short trousers with no socks down 38
    Braces down 7
    Do you mind Blueberry? I don't want your braces and trousers to fall down at this hour :smiley:
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509

    AndyJS said:

    Betfair had Remain as favourites for about 4 hours longer than made any sense.

    I'd like to know who laid all that money for Remain.
    Bank of England?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,439
    edited June 2016
    Did anyone say there wouldn't be volatility on the day of the vote in the markets?

    (If someone did, they are silly)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2016
    England 53.3% Leave on 72.9% turnout. Decisive.

    Turnout in London and Scotland below average.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,428

    AndyJS said:

    Betfair had Remain as favourites for about 4 hours longer than made any sense.

    I'd like to know who laid all that money for Remain.
    Probably the same people investing our pension contributions....
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Sandpit said:

    Thrak said:

    Sterling biggest one day plunge against dollar ever, dwarfing even Black Wednesday .

    We just have to hope this is temporary. If it isn't we're in serious trouble.
    Today will be volatile, but it will all calm down soon enough. If the FTSE opens 10% down there will be a load of buyers looking for value.
    I agree. Temporary turbulence.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,538
    Congratulations to all the leave supporters and campaigners on here.

    Let's hope you were right.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,046
    MaxPB said:

    Thrak said:

    Sterling biggest one day plunge against dollar ever, dwarfing even Black Wednesday .

    We just have to hope this is temporary. If it isn't we're in serious trouble.

    No need to be so fatalist.

    Not being fatalist, being realistic. You don't see such a sudden, uncontrolled devaluation without there being negative consequences.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,284
    This what happens when people in the London bubble forget that people from the provinces don't really care what happens to London and its banks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,753
    EPG said:

    ydoethur said:

    This could easily be the end of the entire EU. It's not at all fanciful to see France and the Netherlands having referendums too in light of this.

    Also, if Juncker does not resign he must be sacked.

    It probably won't be. He probably won't. In any case, the UK doesn't get a say in these matters any more.
    We all thought Remain were going to win last night as well.

    I think either the EU will now federate rapidly or collapse entirely. The status quo ante is not really an option for them.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,995
    Let's see what happens next week. Once people have had the weekend to cool off and we have a new chancellor in place setting out a new agenda.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,593
    Mortimer said:

    Thanks Mike, TSE and all who sail in the good ship PB - a great night.

    Please do put the donate button up - I have some winning tithing to do!

    Ditto.
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651

    Congratulations to all the leave supporters and campaigners on here.

    Let's hope you were right.

    That's very magnanimous of you.
    Nice to see you back; hope your health is improving.


  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    ydoethur said:

    Blueberry said:

    Thrak said:

    Sterling biggest one day plunge against dollar ever, dwarfing even Black Wednesday .

    Beards down 22
    Tight, short trousers with no socks down 38
    Braces down 7
    Do you mind Blueberry? I don't want your braces and trousers to fall down at this hour :smiley:
    Just to say I very much enjoyed your earlier post about *real* people turning out. I wanted to say thanks, great post etc, but there was a stream of info coming through....
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    ydoethur said:

    EPG said:

    ydoethur said:

    This could easily be the end of the entire EU. It's not at all fanciful to see France and the Netherlands having referendums too in light of this.

    Also, if Juncker does not resign he must be sacked.

    It probably won't be. He probably won't. In any case, the UK doesn't get a say in these matters any more.
    We all thought Remain were going to win last night as well.

    I think either the EU will now federate rapidly or collapse entirely. The status quo ante is not really an option for them.
    "Fog in Channel: Continent Cut Off"
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    Congratulations to all the leave supporters and campaigners on here.

    Let's hope you were right.

    Don't care at all about Leave. But the Leave vote made me a lot of money while I voted Remain. And I get a new Scottish Ref too. Double Plus Good.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,538

    This what happens when people in the London bubble forget that people from the provinces don't really care what happens to London and its banks.

    The people in the 'provinces' are really in for a shock then.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,753
    MaxPB said:

    Let's see what happens next week. Once people have had the weekend to cool off and we have a new chancellor in place setting out a new agenda.
    If it's Gove, expect an even more rapid crash.

    The odds on one of May or Hammond being PM by September have just dropped dramatically.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,593
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Betfair had Remain as favourites for about 4 hours longer than made any sense.

    I'd like to know who laid all that money for Remain.
    Probably the same people investing our pension contributions....
    I have to keep an eye on the pension scheme at work - I am not reassured that the pension company can manage basic book-keeping let alone investing.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204
    Surely Cameron has to appear at some point?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Final amount staked on Betfair Exchange: £113,797,897.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,439
    Mortimer said:

    Surely Cameron has to appear at some point?

    Surely before the markets open!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,753
    Blueberry said:

    ydoethur said:

    Blueberry said:

    Thrak said:

    Sterling biggest one day plunge against dollar ever, dwarfing even Black Wednesday .

    Beards down 22
    Tight, short trousers with no socks down 38
    Braces down 7
    Do you mind Blueberry? I don't want your braces and trousers to fall down at this hour :smiley:
    Just to say I very much enjoyed your earlier post about *real* people turning out. I wanted to say thanks, great post etc, but there was a stream of info coming through....
    What earlier post?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Lowlander said:

    Congratulations to all the leave supporters and campaigners on here.

    Let's hope you were right.

    Don't care at all about Leave. But the Leave vote made me a lot of money while I voted Remain. And I get a new Scottish Ref too. Double Plus Good.
    Will you get another scottish ref? I thought the polls there were still strong for the unionists.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,236
    John_N4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    EPG said:

    ydoethur said:

    This could easily be the end of the entire EU. It's not at all fanciful to see France and the Netherlands having referendums too in light of this.

    Also, if Juncker does not resign he must be sacked.

    It probably won't be. He probably won't. In any case, the UK doesn't get a say in these matters any more.
    We all thought Remain were going to win last night as well.

    I think either the EU will now federate rapidly or collapse entirely. The status quo ante is not really an option for them.
    "Fog in Channel: Continent Cut Off"
    "Fog on the Tyne is all mine, all mine"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mortimer said:

    Surely Cameron has to appear at some point?

    Radio 4's Today programme just said he would be on the programme at some point.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/15/germans-largest-bank-says-massive-uk-grown-brexit-bbc-remainers-silent/
    Germany’s largest bank has predicted British stocks will be the best performing in the continent and top UK firms will outperform EU rivals by as much as 5 per cent after a Brexit.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,838

    This what happens when people in the London bubble forget that people from the provinces don't really care what happens to London and its banks.

    Or, this is what happens when some pied piper says the solution to all your woes is to kick out that guy over there in the blue suit with yellow stars.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,593
    Looks like Nancy Cameron isn't going to get that apprenticeship.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    ydoethur said:

    EPG said:

    ydoethur said:

    This could easily be the end of the entire EU. It's not at all fanciful to see France and the Netherlands having referendums too in light of this.

    Also, if Juncker does not resign he must be sacked.

    It probably won't be. He probably won't. In any case, the UK doesn't get a say in these matters any more.
    We all thought Remain were going to win last night as well.

    I think either the EU will now federate rapidly or collapse entirely. The status quo ante is not really an option for them.
    A federal EU might actually have the power to deal with some of the major problems - the migrant crisis, the economic disasters in Iberia and Greece - that are currently undermining it. In some ways the UK's decades-long act as a spanner in the gears has stopped the EU reaching its potential. We will see, I guess, whether it was really the UK's false or whether Brussels is simply institutionally incapable of self-preservation.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,812
    Mortimer said:

    Surely Cameron has to appear at some point?

    I hope so, I desperately need to sleep but I want to see if he is standing down as PM now, as Tory leader or what
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Leave has won Birmingham...... Wow

    Meanwhile I am Just waiting for Tyson and Meeks to pop up and blame the result on all the racist xenophobic little Englander nutters that live there for jumping on their collective hobby horses.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,753

    Lowlander said:

    Congratulations to all the leave supporters and campaigners on here.

    Let's hope you were right.

    Don't care at all about Leave. But the Leave vote made me a lot of money while I voted Remain. And I get a new Scottish Ref too. Double Plus Good.
    Will you get another scottish ref? I thought the polls there were still strong for the unionists.
    They were yesterday...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,995

    MaxPB said:

    Thrak said:

    Sterling biggest one day plunge against dollar ever, dwarfing even Black Wednesday .

    We just have to hope this is temporary. If it isn't we're in serious trouble.

    No need to be so fatalist.

    Not being fatalist, being realistic. You don't see such a sudden, uncontrolled devaluation without there being negative consequences.

    Rising inflation? That's probably a net gain for us at the moment.

    Let's also remember that Sterling was down neae parity with EUR just a few years ago, this fall, while large, isn't anywhere near the worst we've seen. It also puts our exporters on the same playing field as Germany for non-EU exports. Obviously our government needs to come to an agreement pretty fast with the EU for trade, but I'm confident in this nations ability to weather the storm and come out on the other side stronger than ever.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Betfair had Remain as favourites for about 4 hours longer than made any sense.

    Thanks for encouraging me to keep going on the betting, made more money than I otherwise would.
    I hope the spreadsheet was useful. It wasn't perfect but did the job, mostly.
    someone's incredibly impressed that after Sunderland I called it 52:48. I can't bring myself to confess it's all due to your spreadsheet. I probably should :-)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,439
    AndyJS said:

    Mortimer said:

    Surely Cameron has to appear at some point?

    Radio 4's Today programme just said he would be on the programme at some point.
    Oh, can you let us know when! I'd like to tune in I think!!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,838
    Still, on betting front: quite incredible to believe you could 8, possible 10, on Leave yesterday morning.

    Has there ever been a political betting event turn around like this?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204
    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Surely Cameron has to appear at some point?

    I hope so, I desperately need to sleep but I want to see if he is standing down as PM now, as Tory leader or what
    I think he'll stay - at least for today. Too much volatility.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    This what happens when people in the London bubble forget that people from the provinces don't really care what happens to London and its banks.

    Or, this is what happens when some pied piper says the solution to all your woes is to kick out that guy over there in the blue suit with yellow stars.
    Only if you are the sort of person that continues to disrespect WC voters and think they are all stupid, that worked out well last time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,439

    Still, on betting front: quite incredible to believe you could 8, possible 10, on Leave yesterday morning.

    Has there ever been a political betting event turn around like this?

    You could get 17.5 last night ;)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited June 2016
    I just woke up - the sky's blue, the sun's shining and the birds are singing.

    Has something happened?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,593
    AndyJS said:

    Mortimer said:

    Surely Cameron has to appear at some point?

    Radio 4's Today programme just said he would be on the programme at some point.
    Thanks for your spreadsheet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,838
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Mortimer said:

    Surely Cameron has to appear at some point?

    Radio 4's Today programme just said he would be on the programme at some point.
    Oh, can you let us know when! I'd like to tune in I think!!
    He will speak before markets open.

    I hope he resigns and says 'stuff the lot of you'.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,439
    Charles said:

    I just woke up - the sky's blue, the sun's shining and the birds are singing.

    Has something happened?

    Just some AV discussions.. :D
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,046
    Charles said:

    I just woke up - the sky's blue, the sun's shining and the birds are singing.

    Has something happened?

    Yes, the markets are in meltdown ;-)

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,236
    Charles said:

    I just woke up - the sky's blue, the sun's shining and the birds are singing.

    Has something happened?

    Yes. Your family has work to do. Noblesse oblige.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,812
    ydoethur said:

    Lowlander said:

    Congratulations to all the leave supporters and campaigners on here.

    Let's hope you were right.

    Don't care at all about Leave. But the Leave vote made me a lot of money while I voted Remain. And I get a new Scottish Ref too. Double Plus Good.
    Will you get another scottish ref? I thought the polls there were still strong for the unionists.
    They were yesterday...
    Quite. Scotland probably leaving is the biggest hurt to all this - the only reason I could contemplate it is with the SNP dominance it was only a matter of time anyway.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,538
    LucyJones said:

    Congratulations to all the leave supporters and campaigners on here.

    Let's hope you were right.

    That's very magnanimous of you.
    Nice to see you back; hope your health is improving.
    Thanks.

    As I've said before, the EU isn't exactly the most important thing to fix in my view. People
    put the blame on it for things and competencies that we could very well fix inside the EU. It was a convenient whipping-boy.

    One good thing about this is that we - the public - and the politicians should no longer be able to use that excuse. Our failures will be on out own shoulders, where they should be.

    Sadly, I think I'm being over-optimistic on this. People will always look elsewhere for their own failures.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204
    Charles said:

    I just woke up - the sky's blue, the sun's shining and the birds are singing.

    Has something happened?

    A new dawn has broken, has it not?
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Moses_ said:

    Leave has won Birmingham...... Wow

    Meanwhile I am Just waiting for Tyson and Meeks to pop up and blame the result on all the racist xenophobic little Englander nutters that live there for jumping on their collective hobby horses.

    That already happened hours ago.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,995

    Still, on betting front: quite incredible to believe you could 8, possible 10, on Leave yesterday morning.

    Has there ever been a political betting event turn around like this?

    Con majority last year after Nuneaton springs to mind.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,812

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Mortimer said:

    Surely Cameron has to appear at some point?

    Radio 4's Today programme just said he would be on the programme at some point.
    Oh, can you let us know when! I'd like to tune in I think!!
    He will speak before markets open.

    I hope he resigns and says 'stuff the lot of you'.
    The Head of Populus might do that.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Bet Amber Rudd is regretting her attacks on Mr Johnson. :)
  • Morning all.
    I went to bed about 11 last night feeling really quite depressed.
    What a result to wake up to.
This discussion has been closed.