Undefined discussion subject.

stjohn said:

Everyone here is calling it for LEAVE but Betfair has not really budged in the last hour.

REMAIN 1.52
LEAVE 2.9

Who's right? The PB Brains trust or Betfair?

Come on StJohn, that is the spirit- you are giving me hope comrade

Jonathan said:

https://twitter.com/Robert___Harris/status/746137829353349128

Ouch.

rottenborough said:

Nottingham:

A total of 120,792 people cast a vote here in Nottingham.

The size of the electorate was 195,394, meaning there was a 61.82 per cent turnout.

Supposed to be pro-remain . . .

Mortimer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I seriously hope George Osborne and/or Sir Humphrey has got a Plan B for tomorrow. Be a huge dereliction of duty if there wasn't one.

What do you suggest they do? I'm not trolling, I genuinely don't know how the government can possibly protect the UK economy from this, other than the BoE providing unlimited liquidity to banks.

As the saying goes Osborne should not be starting here.

Osborne should have been more circumspect and not trashed our prospects if we vote Leave, he has about as much credibility now as Gerald Ratner.

Not good enough. Leave now own this. They have to take control. Many millions of households depend on it.

Agreed. Gove as Chancellor by 9am is what I said a few days ago if Leave wins. Not seen anything to change my mind.

Agreed.

Well, he's promised no tax rises, increased public spending, cheaper housing and significantly lower immigration. It will be interesting to watch him deliver.

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm touched by those who have been asking after me. I've been packing to flee the country tomorrow.

I have, however, found time to keep backing Leave at regular intervals tonight. The prices are incomprehensible.

It will provide some minor compensation for having my country torn away from me.

I'm relieved that you agree on the prices - I thought I must be going mad.

Remain can still win with big results in London and Edinburgh/Aberdeen.

Leave at ~69% in Hartlepool (reports, not counts)

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

This is a revolution.

But not against the EU...

Britain will be torn apart by this.

Yup.

London is coming in ahead of expectations for Remain, so i reckon it's a 51:49 victory for Leave.

Britain will be torn apart by this.

I disagree. I don;t think you have evidence for that.

CornishBlue said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I seriously hope George Osborne and/or Sir Humphrey has got a Plan B for tomorrow. Be a huge dereliction of duty if there wasn't one.

What do you suggest they do? I'm not trolling, I genuinely don't know how the government can possibly protect the UK economy from this, other than the BoE providing unlimited liquidity to banks.

As the saying goes Osborne should not be starting here.

Osborne should have been more circumspect and not trashed our prospects if we vote Leave, he has about as much credibility now as Gerald Ratner.

Not good enough. Leave now own this. They have to take control. Many millions of households depend on it.

Agreed. Gove as Chancellor by 9am is what I said a few days ago if Leave wins. Not seen anything to change my mind.

He should stay as Lord Chancellor... and become Chancellor of the Exchequer too... CombiChancellor!

Lord Chancellor of the Exchequer before he becomes First Lord of the Treasury?

pbr2013 said:

Casino_Royale said:

This is a revolution.

Starting to look like that.

And like most revolutions, once it is won the winning wide will quickly fall out for lack of a credible plan, no consensus around its leadership and rivalry for position and power, and against the background of both economic and financial turmoil there is going to be the mother of all backlashes once the more naive sections of the public discover that immigration doesn't end and the government has less money to spend rather than more....

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

East Ayrshire:

Remain wins but only with 50.7%

Blimey.

East Ayrshire is Kilmarnock and lots and lots of very poor former mining towns. Its a surprise but not that much of one.

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

Labour MPs will wake up to the news that they are elected by knuckle-dragging racist Little Englanders....

The "Little Englander" tag is this campaigns Ed Stone....tarring a huge percentage of the population as closest racists after years of being called that by Labour looks like it has got a certain demographic fired up to vote Leave.

Yep. My family's Tory voter quotient dropped from 11 to 0 overnight.

RealBritain said:

John_M said:

DearPB said:

tlg86 said:

felix said:

tlg86 said:

felix said:

Looks a very disappointing night for us expats - will be interested to know how soon we'll get any kind of resolution on our future status re taxation, healthcare , residency rights etc. For many pensioners a 10%+ drop in sterling means 10% less pension to liver on each month. For us these things really do matter. Don't expect much sympathy on here but we are British citizens and entitled to some consideration from our government.

Sorry, no sympathy - you choice to live somewhere that doesn't use the Pound.

Ah the charm of the Leaver writ large - most made the choice many years ago when EU membership was not in question. I'm not sure you'll be so happy if thousands of expats have to return in order to get healthcare no longer provided as at present in their adopted country - I hope the NHS is fully geared up.

I really doubt the French and Spanish are going to chuck out immigrants who spend money in their countries.

Well we're going to kick out immigrants who add to the vibrancy of our economy, so people do strange things sometimes.

Wut? Who's kicking out people?

Honestly, I do believe that people on both sides have just been making shit up out of thin air. We're British, goddamit, we do not deport people willy nilly c.f. Abu fecking Hamza.

Except that's exactly the kind of scenario many Leave voters will have fondly imagined at some point during this campaign, knowingly whipped up by Gove, Farage et al.

Got a link to a quote from any leading Leave campaigner, threatening deportations of law-abiding citizens?

Philip_Thompson said:

The Treasuries own ludicrously biased report did not project massive economic disruption.

That's because it was looking only at the long-term effects.

I'm afraid I'm going to be proven right on this. And I really can't see what any government can do about it, other than try to get a new deal with the EU in place as quickly as possible. Even in the most optimistic scenario, though, I can't see how that can be faster than two years, and it might take a lot longer.

Added to the economic problems, we're about to get a prolonged period of political chaos. It ain't gonna be pretty.

Will we know the result before the FTSE opens? If it's Leave, what will it open at?

pbr2013 said:

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

This is a revolution.

But not against the EU...

Britain will be torn apart by this.

But in a good way.

I think not, but I hesitate to engage in the partisanship common on this site.

Lowlander said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

East Ayrshire:

Remain wins but only with 50.7%

Blimey.

East Ayrshire is Kilmarnock and lots and lots of very poor former mining towns. Its a surprise but not that much of one.

This is good. If Scotland is closer to the UK baseline it makes it much easier to craft a result that both nations can accept.

London is going to be pissed come what may.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746140711469334529

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

This is a revolution.

But not against the EU...

Britain will be torn apart by this.

No, it is a revolution against the EU as well.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris Bryant says 'tosspot' Miliband to blame for state Labour is in

Labour figures are also attacking each other. Talking to guests at the Stronger In referendum party, Chris Bryant, the shadow leader of the Commons, denounced Ed Miliband when he saw the former party leader being interviewed on TV. He said:

I might go and punch him because he’s a tosspot and he left the party in the state it’s in.

LOL. These so-called Labour moderates blaming Corbyn or Miliband, rather than accepting that one of their main raison d'etres just is not popular with Joe Public.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

As the saying goes Osborne should not be starting here.

Osborne should have been more circumspect and not trashed our prospects if we vote Leave, he has about as much credibility now as Gerald Ratner.

You haven't answered my question, but in any case of course it's not Osborne who has trashed our prospects. This stuff is for real. The idea that we could leave the EU with no plan from the Leave side, without massive economic disruption, was always cloud-cuckoo land - as it looks as though we shall find out, starting tomorrow. Combined with the economic chaos is going to be political chaos. Fasten your seat belts.

Well they just that off the 3 alternative contingency plans the civil service will have developed.

Wait, you didn't actually believe Isborne's low that there was contingency plan?

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746140711469334529

Essex!

John_M said:

I'm still urging calm. Given that we've had results that are kinda wildly different from expectations, we could equally have bizarro results going the other way. It's going to be a close race, that's the main thing.

It might not be close. You could have bizarre votes the other way, but is that likely? Why have areas been more leave than expected? Because the EU has been so arrogant, so bad at demonstrating any worth. They bring the case remain areas may next treading water .

Will be starting counting soon, so won't be on for a while, but I'm very confident my 54 46 for leave will be close to the result. I think the trend is more leave than expected.

It's over

Suggestion...when people post a new result, can they post turn-out and also "par".

MarqueeMark said:

alex. said:

To be fair we've still had less than a million votes counted

Actual results compared to (flawed) poll samples in the thousands....

Yes, but, for all the work done on Spreadsheets etc, no-one really knew for sure where the votes would stack up. till very early days. It strikes me that the accuracy of the polls probably exceeds that of where the votes will be. So I'm not getting over-excited just yet.
Happy for those with more understanding of these things to correct me.

Assuming it is Leave, as someone genuinely pro-EU i'll be sad to see us leave the EU - but then i've long been aware my views are a small minority.

If it is a close leave vote, i've seen various non-ukip leave politicians suggesting delaying article 50, and respecting the votes of the other side. Seems to me like there will certainly be a push for EFTA, which from a personal perspective will be fine for me as an expat.

We will see most tory leavers push for EFTA, plus nearly all remainers - plus probably brexit papers like Telegraph and Sunday Times. I think Vote Leave's immigration campaign will be unspoken of again after tonight - it will be in remainers interests to sweep that under the rug and get us on EFTA, which actually chimes nicely with what Boris, Gove etc probably prefer to do.

There will be a strong UKIP as a result.


If leave win by more than 54% I think they will struggle to play the "heal a divided nation with compromise" routine.

BBC: Birmingham - Remain between 55 and 60

Mortimer said:

CornishBlue said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I seriously hope George Osborne and/or Sir Humphrey has got a Plan B for tomorrow. Be a huge dereliction of duty if there wasn't one.

What do you suggest they do? I'm not trolling, I genuinely don't know how the government can possibly protect the UK economy from this, other than the BoE providing unlimited liquidity to banks.

As the saying goes Osborne should not be starting here.

Osborne should have been more circumspect and not trashed our prospects if we vote Leave, he has about as much credibility now as Gerald Ratner.

Not good enough. Leave now own this. They have to take control. Many millions of households depend on it.

Agreed. Gove as Chancellor by 9am is what I said a few days ago if Leave wins. Not seen anything to change my mind.

He should stay as Lord Chancellor... and become Chancellor of the Exchequer too... CombiChancellor!

Duchy of Lancaster as well? Triumvirate?

Why not? He deserves it if Leave win.

foxinsoxuk said:

It is times like this that I am glad of my government salary.

I may even get a payrise with Gove spending an extra £100 million per week on the NHS.

Watches squadron of pigs flying past the window.

Yeah, you'll be fine. So will I.

Leave just win in Basildon 68.6 31.4 (good for Leave)

hunchman said:

Birmingham 55-60% remain apparently

That's a very big spread.

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

This is a revolution.

It'll be a close Leave victory, I reckon.

Which is good for my gambling P&L.

But I do hope that we find a solution that works for the 70%, not the 51%.

EEA-EFTA

That would be a huge betrayal of working class Leave voters.

hunchman said:

Birmingham 55-60% remain apparently

Ballpark for what they needed for a 50/50 result.

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

another_richard said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm touched by those who have been asking after me. I've been packing to flee the country tomorrow.

I have, however, found time to keep backing Leave at regular intervals tonight. The prices are incomprehensible.

It will provide some minor compensation for having my country torn away from me.

I'm relieved that you agree on the prices - I thought I must be going mad.

I'd not put too much at stake on this referendum till tonight but I'm rapidly rethinking what it is appropriate to commit.

Best bet is to move to Jobbik's Hungary, mate. Where they are more cosmopolitan.

Enjoy your evening. Tonight is a night for Leavers to exult. The lunatics are taking over the asylum. We shall have to hope against all logic that it sort of works out ok.

stjohn said:

I think "the market" feels that the big cities will pull it round for REMAIN. But no-one here seems to think so. I can't call it myself.

But Newcastle didn't. Heard bad rumours about Sheffield.

RodCrosby said:

rottenborough said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
Basildon, #EUref result:
Remain: 31.4% (30,748)
Leave: 68.6% (67,251)

Big for LEAVE

Not a surprise.

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Birmingham 55-60% remain apparently

I'm hearing 58 to 60

Strong Remain area but only par again.

Come on you Brummy bastards....get in there......

Soon we will find out if we should have listened to the experts

To use a different historical analogy, this is the February revolution. Sadly the people who instigated it are blind to the October revolution heading our way...

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

another_richard said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm touched by those who have been asking after me. I've been packing to flee the country tomorrow.

I have, however, found time to keep backing Leave at regular intervals tonight. The prices are incomprehensible.

It will provide some minor compensation for having my country torn away from me.

I'm relieved that you agree on the prices - I thought I must be going mad.

I'd not put too much at stake on this referendum till tonight but I'm rapidly rethinking what it is appropriate to commit.

Best bet is to move to Jobbik's Hungary, mate. Where they are more cosmopolitan.

Enjoy your evening. Tonight is a night for Leavers to exult. The lunatics are taking over the asylum. We shall have to hope against all logic that it sort of works out ok.

How long are we going to have to wait before you calm down too?

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

This is a revolution.

But not against the EU...

Britain will be torn apart by this.

Calm the fuck down, and get a grip.

This "us" versus "them" stuff is no longer helpful.

We all need to pull together now and make it work.

I'm not pulling together with people who court xenophobia. Absolutely not.

RealBritain said:

pbr2013 said:

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

This is a revolution.

But not against the EU...

Britain will be torn apart by this.

But in a good way.

I think not, but I hesitate to engage in the partisanship common on this site.

What's not to like? A long overdue reminder of who is master. Ie not the politicians...uh oh. Some talking head going on about a last stand at Worcester, falling back to London if all else fails.

Casino_Royale said:

This is a revolution.

It might be, Mr.Royale, it is certainly shaping up to be the biggest bloody nose the establishment has received since 1945.

Telegraph says leading pollster says "Brexit most likely result now"