Skip to content

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No wonder Nigel Farage in unconceding – Big moves on Betfai

SystemSystem Posts: 12,685
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No wonder Nigel Farage in unconceding – Big moves on Betfair towards Leave

Sources suggesting Sunderland might be as high as 62% for Leave, that would be quite something

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    Wandsworth over 70% Remain say BBC
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    Crawley over 60% Leave
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Ashdown on. Wondering what he is going to eat tonight,
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    More convinced than ever Leave is going to win this.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    tbh it's turnouts. The ratios don't signify enough by themselves.Still, beats walking the streets I suppose.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    All to play for it seems.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Anyone have a link to a par spreadsheet? Preferably with don't knows excluded.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    HYUFD said:

    Crawley over 60% Leave

    What is par score for Crawley?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,062
    Well there's my bedtime gone
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    HYUFD said:

    Wandsworth over 70% Remain say BBC

    Apparently 73% is par. Remain may need to be a few points higher than that if Sunderland is true, and repeated across the north.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,437
    HYUFD said:

    Crawley over 60% Leave

    It looks like there will be more extreme results each way than the spreadsheet suggests.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,032
    What is going on? Very very odd. All the money going on Remain, the £?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,569
    Twitter
    Iain Martin ‏@iainmartin1 14m14 minutes ago
    Fellow Brexiteers, as a Scotland fan I can help here. There is no such thing as a moral victory. A win is a win, a loss is a loss.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    I'll believe Leave have won when the votes are all counted. And the negotiation has occurred. And we actually leave.

    Still think Remain are favourite.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Perhaps the secret Canadians have come out for Remain ?
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Desperate point scoring on election programmes has to be one of the most pointless activities known to man.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Jonathan said:

    Ashdown on. Wondering what he is going to eat tonight,

    Why have they exhumed him? The Lib Dems have been invisible.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Crawley over 60% Leave

    It looks like there will be more extreme results each way than the spreadsheet suggests.
    A polarised campaign leads to a polarised result.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Anyone have a link to a par spreadsheet? Preferably with don't knows excluded.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    Paddy worrying abot postal votes
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,629
    I wonder who is more worried? The city or the pollsters who did the work for them? If wrong, both are in for an Osborne style punishment beating!
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    John_M said:

    Jonathan said:

    Ashdown on. Wondering what he is going to eat tonight,

    Why have they exhumed him? The Lib Dems have been invisible.
    That's true. The great pro-European party of British politics, once.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,062
    Paddy being much more cautious than last year!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,896
    edited June 2016
    Where can I see a live graph of USD vs GBP?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,437
    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wandsworth over 70% Remain say BBC

    Apparently 73% is par. Remain may need to be a few points higher than that if Sunderland is true, and repeated across the north.
    Turnout, turnout, turnout :)
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Oh ffs, I need to sleep, and suddenly it gets interesting?
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    DanSmith said:

    HYUFD said:

    Crawley over 60% Leave

    What is par score for Crawley?
    There are two speadsheets here if you want to follow, but they are slightly different.

    In any respect, 60% is over expectations. 52-55% leave is about par.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tRE59IkgeRREISpM75I8gR0MdkGe1diParW0hVO109Y/htmlview?sle=true#gid=881507152

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,569
    Twitter
    Stephen Daisley ‏@JournoStephen 16m16 minutes ago
    Remain campaign tells @STVColin that in Liberton (average middle class area in Edinburgh), so far it's 75% Remain/25% Leave. #EURef
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Wandsworth over 70% Remain say BBC

    Par would be 73% on my figures so nothing surprising.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,629
    John_M said:

    Jonathan said:

    Ashdown on. Wondering what he is going to eat tonight,

    Why have they exhumed him? The Lib Dems have been invisible.
    What's a lib dem?
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wandsworth over 70% Remain say BBC

    Apparently 73% is par. Remain may need to be a few points higher than that if Sunderland is true, and repeated across the north.
    I wonder if the weather in London might really play a part after all in such a context, all joking aside.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    FPT

    I didn't exactly "crawl over broken glass" to vote LEAVE today, but expended about 5 hours and a Virgin West Coast return train fare between London and Coventry, and nearly got soaked exiting my local Tube station. Nearly :)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,341
    The temptation to go all green is hard to resist....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Anyone have a link to a par spreadsheet? Preferably with don't knows excluded.

    This is my spreadsheet for England only:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,716
    numbertwelve said:

    Paddy being much more cautious than last year!

    Also not wearing a hat.....
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    I've got a very bad feeling. I said before I was hoping for a close result. Actually, I'll unconcede that statement
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    DanSmith said:

    HYUFD said:

    Crawley over 60% Leave

    What is par score for Crawley?
    Chris Hanretty has 43/57 Leave. My figures are different for Crawley.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Stephen Daisley ‏@JournoStephen 16m16 minutes ago
    Remain campaign tells @STVColin that in Liberton (average middle class area in Edinburgh), so far it's 75% Remain/25% Leave. #EURef

    Edinburgh shd be a par of 73%.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Can anyone explain Crawley? Leave 60% seems very very high for the area.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Dr. Prasannan, which way did you vote?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,516
    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'll believe Leave have won when the votes are all counted. And the negotiation has occurred. And we actually leave.

    Still think Remain are favourite.

    Wise words.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,341
    Where is the newcs result!!!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    14% voted UKIP in Newcastle Central in the general election, 13% nationally, so it does not lean Remain it should be a key marginal, Curtice's model looks wrong to me!
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    DanSmith said:

    HYUFD said:

    Crawley over 60% Leave

    What is par score for Crawley?
    51.62
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,629
    So while we wait for results to.come in...there are 3 doors, behind 2 are...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,716
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So while we wait for results to.come in...there are 3 doors, behind 2 are...

    Oh you.....
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Ave it update!

    Leave might win now!

    Or maybe not!!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,032
    rcs1000 said:

    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wandsworth over 70% Remain say BBC

    Apparently 73% is par. Remain may need to be a few points higher than that if Sunderland is true, and repeated across the north.
    Turnout, turnout, turnout :)
    Good point.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,086
    60% plus for Leave in Sunderland is sensational for Leave.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    weejonnie said:

    DanSmith said:

    HYUFD said:

    Crawley over 60% Leave

    What is par score for Crawley?
    51.62
    Lets say it, Leave looks to be miles ahead of where it needs to be to win. This isn't even close at the moment.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,341
    Wow, Steve Baker in one sentence seems to have flip flopped in true Burnham style.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    GBPUSD at 1.4890 - keep falling Mr Cable!
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Narrative fairly negative at the moment. How soon till the betting crossover? As I intimated earlier, my feeling at the polling station here in North Birmingham this afternoon was definitely that Leave was in the air, and didn't tally at all with the feeling online that Remain was going to do it. If the polls are wrong again and have fooled the punters again, that'll be absolutely remarkable.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Darth Eagles, will you please stop creating a new thread every few minutes. It makes it very difficult to keep up with the discussion.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,832
    AndyJS said:

    DanSmith said:

    HYUFD said:

    Crawley over 60% Leave

    What is par score for Crawley?
    About 50/50, not sure what Chris Hanretty had.
    Hanratty had 56.7% Leave
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    DanSmith said:

    weejonnie said:

    DanSmith said:

    HYUFD said:

    Crawley over 60% Leave

    What is par score for Crawley?
    51.62
    Lets say it, Leave looks to be miles ahead of where it needs to be to win. This isn't even close at the moment.
    Early days, early days
  • mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    https://www.oanda.com/currency/live-exchange-rates/GBPUSD/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: We're pencilling you in to lead Ukip from 7.30am to 8.15am @SuzanneEvans1 @Peston @Nigel_Farage Enough time for Nigel to have a fry-up.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Did I correctly hear Ashdown say postals could win it for Leave?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,716
    HurstLlama said:

    Darth Eagles, will you please stop creating a new thread every few minutes. It makes it very difficult to keep up with the discussion.

    Think it helps keep the load off the server... it is run by hamster wheel. :D
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Pulpstar said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Stephen Daisley ‏@JournoStephen 16m16 minutes ago
    Remain campaign tells @STVColin that in Liberton (average middle class area in Edinburgh), so far it's 75% Remain/25% Leave. #EURef

    Edinburgh shd be a par of 73%.
    Liberton is posh Edinburgh. Places like Wester Hailes will be 60%+ Leave.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    Tory MP not really giving hus support for osborne.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    The biggest turn around, of mood music, since Bayezid's army to conquer Constantinople was unexpectedly annihilated by Tamerlane?
  • StarfallStarfall Posts: 78
    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'll believe Leave have won when the votes are all counted. And the negotiation has occurred. And we actually leave.

    Still think Remain are favourite.

    I still don't believe Leave can win after Jo Cox.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,032
    Crawley wouldn't be a low turnout area would it?
  • trawltrawl Posts: 142
    May be just trading but Remain is getting sold on SPIN
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,716
    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: We're pencilling you in to lead Ukip from 7.30am to 8.15am @SuzanneEvans1 @Peston @Nigel_Farage Enough time for Nigel to have a fry-up.

    Relevant:

    http://cdn2.spectator.co.uk/files/2015/05/suzanne.png
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    edited June 2016
    "Only When You Leave" - Spandau Ballet

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlLCC_gF8QY
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    https://twitter.com/darrenh1/status/746107541717934080
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,341
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    FPT

    I didn't exactly "crawl over broken glass" to vote LEAVE today, but expended about 5 hours and a Virgin West Coast return train fare between London and Coventry, and nearly got soaked exiting my local Tube station. Nearly :)

    PBLeaver hero!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,222
    Starfall said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'll believe Leave have won when the votes are all counted. And the negotiation has occurred. And we actually leave.

    Still think Remain are favourite.

    I still don't believe Leave can win after Jo Cox.
    It may have led to shy leavers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,835
    MP_SE said:

    Can anyone explain Crawley? Leave 60% seems very very high for the area.

    Unlike the rest of Surrey Crawley is quite wwc
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,579
    I was wondering whether AV is a good voting system. Don't suppose anyone here has a view?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Lowlander said:

    Pulpstar said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Stephen Daisley ‏@JournoStephen 16m16 minutes ago
    Remain campaign tells @STVColin that in Liberton (average middle class area in Edinburgh), so far it's 75% Remain/25% Leave. #EURef

    Edinburgh shd be a par of 73%.
    Liberton is posh Edinburgh. Places like Wester Hailes will be 60%+ Leave.
    Yes, surely that's the highest they're gonna get.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    I'm at the stage which I call "pleasantly hammered" right now. Watching Farage embarrassing himself with conspiracy theories and Ashdown apologising to Curtice. My waters are telling me that 52% remain is now optimistic (sadly), almost of which is on the basis of the insanely high turnout in those areas (NE and NW England) who usually don't bother.

    Tense.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,414
    Slackbladder said:

    DanSmith said:

    weejonnie said:

    DanSmith said:

    HYUFD said:

    Crawley over 60% Leave

    What is par score for Crawley?
    51.62
    Lets say it, Leave looks to be miles ahead of where it needs to be to win. This isn't even close at the moment.
    Early days, early days
    We could have a very polarised result where leave areas are more leave than expected and remain areas are more remain than expected. We could do with some indications of how Wandsworth is doing.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    AndyJS said:

    Did I correctly hear Ashdown say postals could win it for Leave?

    Yeah, but we all know how useful his considerations are on election nights... ;)
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Aiden Kerr
    These 60-70% turnouts in post-industrial English towns is terrific for Leave. #EURef
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/darrenh1/status/746107541717934080

    !!!!!!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,437
    murali_s said:

    60% plus for Leave in Sunderland is sensational for Leave.

    Right now, thinking 51/49 for Leave overall, but who the hell knows.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    AndyJS said:

    Did I correctly hear Ashdown say postals could win it for Leave?

    Yes. And then he started banging on about 'whtat happens if you voted Leave a month ago and now regret it?'

    The answer to that, Paddy, is tough shit!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Mortimer said:

    Wow, Steve Baker in one sentence seems to have flip flopped in true Burnham style.

    What's he said?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Ave_it said:

    Ave it update!

    Leave might win now!

    Or maybe not!!

    Lets Ave It! Lets LEAVE!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,629
    edited June 2016
    IanB2 said:

    MP_SE said:

    Can anyone explain Crawley? Leave 60% seems very very high for the area.

    Unlike the rest of Surrey Crawley is quite wwc
    Also, it has had a lot of immigration due to the airport. I remember some people telling me (and don't know if true) that airport jobs used to pay really really well & pretty cushy, but with EU migrants lots of competition for those roles.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    IanB2 said:

    MP_SE said:

    Can anyone explain Crawley? Leave 60% seems very very high for the area.

    Unlike the rest of Surrey Crawley is quite wwc
    How dare you, Crawley is in West Sussex.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    As I said on the last thread, soak this all in people. History in the making. The GE last year was incredibly exciting and history making. This is the most significant single election in our history.

    People will debate it and re-watch the coverage for decades. We're here now watching history.

    Whatever side you are on, try to enjoy it!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,320
    trawl said:

    May be just trading but Remain is getting sold on SPIN

    Leave 4.6 BF
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    What is par for Newcastle?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,341
    Today I went to see Independence Day Resurgence with a heavy heart, all but about 5 of my fb feed voted early and loudly for Remain.

    Bill Pullman gave me hope.

    What does the night have in hold....

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,437
    I would point out that I forecast 62% for Leave in Sunderland in my twisty turney forecast :)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    It will be closer than 52:48. This could be premature indeed.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    I've just cleared all my losses on betfair on this market
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Stephen Daisley ‏@JournoStephen 16m16 minutes ago
    Remain campaign tells @STVColin that in Liberton (average middle class area in Edinburgh), so far it's 75% Remain/25% Leave. #EURef

    Average middle class my bahookie.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,222
    IanB2 said:

    MP_SE said:

    Can anyone explain Crawley? Leave 60% seems very very high for the area.

    Unlike the rest of Surrey Crawley is quite wwc
    Crawley is in Sussex! Surrey got rid of that dump years ago.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,387
    Tonight could be the first time Newcastle have beaten Sunderland for about 5 seasons...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    HurstLlama said:

    Darth Eagles, will you please stop creating a new thread every few minutes. It makes it very difficult to keep up with the discussion.

    Sorry, but quick turnaround on threads tonight.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Pollsters absolutely destroyed now. They have had no idea.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Ave_it said:

    Ave it update!

    Leave might win now!

    Or maybe not!!

    :open_mouth:
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    Crawley is, and always has been, in Sussex.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    pbr2013 said:

    What is par for Newcastle?

    55-45 Remain
This discussion has been closed.

© Vanilla Keystone Theme 2025