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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the polls close Nigel Farage says Remain will edge it bu

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,371
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jesus why did I just put 10p a minute on Sunderland :p

    which way? :p
    Buy !

    @Pong is on making £10 a minute from now !
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Fellow Brexiteers, as a Scotland fan I can help here. There is no such thing as a moral victory. A win is a win, a loss is a loss.

    How would he know what a win is?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Well done to 823 on Gibraltar!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Gibraltar:

    Remain: 19,322 (95.9%)
    Leave: 823 (4.1%)

    Remain majority: 18,499
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,414
    Landslide remain!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356
    edited June 2016
    Gibraltar result

    Remain 96% Leave 4%
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,229
    Well, that was comprehensive!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,700
    19,322 vs 823
    Gibraltar

    lol
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,414
    That's a LD bar chart for sure :p
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508
    GET IN GIBRALTAR!!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,710
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    If it's close to 60% that's a good Leave result. Turnout is the big question.
    60%+ and I'll start to get excited.

    Trouble is that I expect other areas in the south to be much more Remain than the Curtice "par".
    Isn't the 54-60 spread just the "Labour samples" <--> "postal vote estimate"?

    Means it's probably around 55/56 assuming that postal votes are around 30% of the total
    Yeah, shit.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Has someone done a spreadsheet/page with what the par is for each council stripping out the Don't Knows?

    Anyone have a link?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,040
    Dan Hodges is going to spend the night proving he's not very good at his job.
  • Gib votes in. I'm calling it for Remain. LOL.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873
    HYUFD said:
    That doesn't seem anything to write home about.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488



    Paul BrandVerified account
    @PaulBrandITV
    Remain sources in Sunderland telling me they vote divides something like 60-40 in favour of LEAVE. #ITVEURef

    if thats true we are in for a very interesting night. I wonder if Scotland will save Cameron's bacon? Oops a pig reference.
  • HYUFD said:
    Thats about 150% up on gen elections?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited June 2016
    Gibraltar

    Votes: 20172 of 24117 electors
    Remain: 19322
    Leave: 823
    Rejected: 27
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,700
    AndyJS said:

    Gibraltar:

    Remain: 19,322 (95.9%)
    Leave: 823 (4.1%)

    It's all over.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,104
    Rock solid for Remain.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Dan Hodges is going to spend the night proving he's not very good at his job.

    Dan Hodges is getting people to talk about Dan Hodges. He is very good at his job.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Landslide remain in Gibralter, 90-10 for Remain across UK confirmed.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    HYUFD said:

    Gibralter result

    Remain 19,322 Leave 823

    We should give these buggers to Spain :).
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Big move on Betfair for Gibraltar 8.8 --> 9.2 :D
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,229
    It'll be downhill from here for Remain then?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,371
    Geoff !¬
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,687
    96% seems a pretty reasonable result :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873
    HYUFD said:

    Gibraltar result

    Remain 19,322 Leave 823

    They are currently roaming the streets looking for the 823 traitors.

    Why did Cameron bother to go there?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,269
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    DavidL said:

    Kay Burley wandering around the room asking who people are. Misidentifying members of Parliament. Never seen anything quite like it by a political correspondent. Totally embarrassing.

    How on Earth did she confuse Trevor Phillips with Chuka?!?!
    Well because she is completely stupid. But I think it was David Lammy that she misidentified.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,414
    Laura K reporting 62% for Leave in Sunderland.. perhaps, maybe!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    After Gibralter, can we stop counting, and just accept the result
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Kunesberg suggesting Sunderland could be as high as 62% for leave.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,925
    78% of postal votes were returned. That's interesting here because Remain say postal votes massively favoured Leave. #ITVEURef
    1 retweet 1 like
    Reply Retweet 1
    Like 1
    More
    Paul Brand ‏@PaulBrandITV 5m5 minutes ago
    Sunderland turnout 64.9%
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,402
    Laura K - Sunderland could be 62% leave!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,779
    AndyJS said:

    Gibraltar:

    Remain: 19,322 (95.9%)
    Leave: 823 (4.1%)

    Remain majority: 18,499

    Things can only get better.....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    HYUFD said:
    Thats about 150% up on gen elections?
    It was 56% across the 3 constituencies at the GE.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,487
    BBC say Sunderland 62% Leave
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    They don't monkey around, those Gibs.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,812
    Laura just took a point off BF Remain.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    BBC: Leave might get as much as 62% in Sunderland.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,300
    LOL. Now there's an interesting autonomic response.

    Farage comes on Sky News and I immediately hit the mute button :-)

    And yes I am the most leavering leaver in Britain.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,779
    hunchman said:

    Well done to 823 on Gibraltar!

    They are being marched up the Rock as we speak....
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited June 2016

    Big move on Betfair for Gibraltar 8.8 --> 9.2 :D

    To put it in perspective - the votes are equivalent to 10% of Sunderland.

    And Betfair is back in again to 7.6!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Someone from the Guardian suggesting Remain have won Sunderland.

    Keiran Pedley of pb has just tweeted a rumour that Leave have an 8pt lead there. Suggest too much still up in the air to make a call?
    Laura K has just said rumour Sunderland is 62-38 to Leave
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202
    Significant move to Leave on bf
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    HYUFD said:

    Gibraltar result

    Remain 19,322 Leave 823

    They are currently roaming the streets looking for the 823 traitors.

    Why did Cameron bother to go there?
    He's been given such a hard time, he probably wanted to go somewhere he'd be sure of getting the odd smile and encouraging pat on the back.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    This means that if the United Kingdom votes Leave by less than 18,499 votes the overall result will be Remain.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,414
    viewcode said:

    BBC say Sunderland 62% Leave

    But not an actual result yet
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Now the BBC says Sunderland is looking to vote Leave *above* trend. Sampling is an inexact business !
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,907
    Cam and Sam will be able to take a holiday on The Rock whenever the like! :smiley:
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    60% Leave in Sunderland would be serious stuff. But turnout doesn't look massive. I have done no canvassing of my own but you get a sense that things on the ground are somehow different to the polls.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Leave under 8 on BF, probably due to Laura K comments!
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    Laura K - Sunderland could be 62% leave!

    If they mackem, we'll tackem.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,700

    HYUFD said:
    Thats about 150% up on gen elections?
    Weighted Sunderland turnout was 59%, so so up 6%.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202
    viewcode said:

    BBC say Sunderland 62% Leave

    Always been a massive fan of Sunderland.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Charles said:

    Someone from the Guardian suggesting Remain have won Sunderland.

    Keiran Pedley of pb has just tweeted a rumour that Leave have an 8pt lead there. Suggest too much still up in the air to make a call?
    Laura K has just said rumour Sunderland is 62-38 to Leave
    Oof. I suspect that the North will go far more leave than expected, the south a bit more remain.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    TOPPING said:

    Laura just took a point off BF Remain.

    I believe that is called "doing a Mike".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,371
    Farage listening to his City mates lol
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,487

    Laura K - Sunderland could be 62% leave!

    If that's true, haven't LEAVE won?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,914
    GeoffM said:

    Gibraltar

    Votes: 20172 of 24117 electors
    Remain: 19322
    Leave: 823
    Rejected: 27

    Good to see you used all of your 823 personal votes, Geoff!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Charles said:

    Someone from the Guardian suggesting Remain have won Sunderland.

    Keiran Pedley of pb has just tweeted a rumour that Leave have an 8pt lead there. Suggest too much still up in the air to make a call?
    Laura K has just said rumour Sunderland is 62-38 to Leave
    Good grief.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356

    HYUFD said:
    That doesn't seem anything to write home about.
    Was 57% at the general election
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Would Gibraltar be so keen on the EU if part of the deal was that they had to become part of Spain, I wonder?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,269
    Charles said:

    Someone from the Guardian suggesting Remain have won Sunderland.

    Keiran Pedley of pb has just tweeted a rumour that Leave have an 8pt lead there. Suggest too much still up in the air to make a call?
    Laura K has just said rumour Sunderland is 62-38 to Leave
    That would set us up for a very long night.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,779
    viewcode said:

    BBC say Sunderland 62% Leave

    I still think there will be a Remain bonus for Nissan of a couple of points.... We'll need a few results to know.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,700
    viewcode said:

    Laura K - Sunderland could be 62% leave!

    If that's true, haven't LEAVE won?
    We simply don't know. Certainly, the odds need to change.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,040
    Looks like a big Leave win in Soonderland. That may change the evening's narrative. But worth remembering - if I do remember correctly - the NE was a bit atypical in the GE in terms of swing away from Labour.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,414
    Who has more power. OGH or Laura K? Discuss.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    If Keunssberg is right, combined with the low turnout in Scotland (Clacks was 67% compared to 89% in Indyref) then this might be over after Sunderland declares.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    hunchman said:

    Well done to 823 on Gibraltar!

    They are being marched up the Rock as we speak....
    I'm waiting for a knock on the door at any second.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,579
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Thats about 150% up on gen elections?
    Weighted Sunderland turnout was 59%, so so up 6%.
    Up 6pp and up 10%.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,914
    Can't we just give Gibraltar to Spain, if they SO much want to remain part of the EU?

    Of course, contingent on a mainland LEAVE vote!

    Geoff M can be given special leave to remain in the UK :)
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Disraeli said:

    Would Gibraltar be so keen on the EU if part of the deal was that they had to become part of Spain, I wonder?

    Their concern is that if we leave the EU they may have to become part of Spain.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    DanSmith said:

    BBC: Leave might get as much as 62% in Sunderland.

    If true leave have won?
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Charles said:

    Someone from the Guardian suggesting Remain have won Sunderland.

    Keiran Pedley of pb has just tweeted a rumour that Leave have an 8pt lead there. Suggest too much still up in the air to make a call?
    Laura K has just said rumour Sunderland is 62-38 to Leave
    That's pretty astonishing
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,779
    Not a time for recriminations, Farage? SOd that. If Leave loses, you get to carry the can mate.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255

    Charles said:

    Someone from the Guardian suggesting Remain have won Sunderland.

    Keiran Pedley of pb has just tweeted a rumour that Leave have an 8pt lead there. Suggest too much still up in the air to make a call?
    Laura K has just said rumour Sunderland is 62-38 to Leave
    Good grief.
    That would be quite something to start the night.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202

    Looks like a big Leave win in Soonderland. That may change the evening's narrative. But worth remembering - if I do remember correctly - the NE was a bit atypical in the GE in terms of swing away from Labour.

    I think it was an odd swing to Labour, wasn't it? Reread the May thread last night, and Rod commented that it was weird.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    I've got that horrible feeling tonight. It reminds me of 2004 and 2000- elections which I was horribly confident at the start, but got worse......

    I am particularly worried about the high turnout with Labour voters coming out....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,244
    I work with a lot of mackems and no-one believes Nissan would leave the area if we left the EU. Food for thought.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,955

    viewcode said:

    BBC say Sunderland 62% Leave

    I still think there will be a Remain bonus for Nissan of a couple of points.... We'll need a few results to know.
    That's why it's 62% leave and not the 70% in Hartlepool
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,371

    Looks like a big Leave win in Soonderland. That may change the evening's narrative. But worth remembering - if I do remember correctly - the NE was a bit atypical in the GE in terms of swing away from Labour.

    Sunderland swung toward Labour at the GE.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    Farage unconcedes.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Farage really is an idiot - if we lose it's because too many legitimate voters were allowed to vote.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Farage launching the Neverendum campaign on the BBC just now.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,907
    edited June 2016

    Looks like a big Leave win in Soonderland. That may change the evening's narrative. But worth remembering - if I do remember correctly - the NE was a bit atypical in the GE in terms of swing away from Labour.

    Yes. Sunderland is always a bit odd. We'll need a few Shire counties as well I think.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    nunu said:

    DanSmith said:

    BBC: Leave might get as much as 62% in Sunderland.

    If true leave have won?
    No. Sunderland is very leave friendly IMO. The south may go more remain than expected. Overall is a positive though.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    BBC cuts means they are periscoping Farage speech.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,402
    Farage going full on nutter.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,579
    alex. said:

    Disraeli said:

    Would Gibraltar be so keen on the EU if part of the deal was that they had to become part of Spain, I wonder?

    Their concern is that if we leave the EU they may have to become part of Spain.
    The irony is that it's us leavers who would defend them. The Remainers would happily get rid of them.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Who has more power. OGH or Laura K? Discuss.

    That's a loaded question, like is there a dark side to racism? ;)
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Chameleon said:

    Charles said:

    Someone from the Guardian suggesting Remain have won Sunderland.

    Keiran Pedley of pb has just tweeted a rumour that Leave have an 8pt lead there. Suggest too much still up in the air to make a call?
    Laura K has just said rumour Sunderland is 62-38 to Leave
    Oof. I suspect that the North will go far more leave than expected, the south a bit more remain.
    Don't forget turnout may also have been much spotty in both the rural south and london tonight.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Farage unconcedes.

    Is this him unreconceding, or reunconceding?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,730
    Farage saying he wants to make immigration an issue without using the word, he remembers a lady in Bolton saying to tell the Prime Minister to visit Bolton to see what they've done to the town. But immigrants to Bolton are Asian, not EU, so what does it have to do with the referendum?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202
    GeoffM said:

    hunchman said:

    Well done to 823 on Gibraltar!

    They are being marched up the Rock as we speak....
    I'm waiting for a knock on the door at any second.
    Geoff! - PBLeaver hero!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like a big Leave win in Soonderland. That may change the evening's narrative. But worth remembering - if I do remember correctly - the NE was a bit atypical in the GE in terms of swing away from Labour.

    Sunderland swung toward Labour at the GE.
    Sunderland was atypical in 2010, swinging bigger Tory than later on in the night.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Farage unconcedes.

    LOL.

    The man is a joke.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,371
    Amazing how many people can bring themselves to vote "leave" when UKIP isn't on the ballot...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,710
    Defiant speech by Farage there.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Farage unconcedes.

    Is that his first, second or third unconcession tonight.
This discussion has been closed.