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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the polls close Nigel Farage says Remain will edge it bu

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,854

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    We're going to get a lot of this.

    It's the insufferable smugness of the Remainers that i'm going to find hardest to bear.

    But, we must accept the result if it is this. For now.
    I don't think there will be any smugness (other than from TSE, natch). Whatever the final result, it's already clear that Leave have done hugely better than anyone expected. If they haven't won, they've certainly come very close to winning, despite the odds. That's food for thought for all politicians.
    I have nothing to be smug about.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Wanderer said:

    alex. said:

    Wanderer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    Who on earth are the 7% UKIP that voted REMAIN? :open_mouth:
    Sage and prescient individuals, the cream of UKIP.
    Careerists.
    Is there a career in voting UKIP? I wasn't told this.
    There's a career in working for UKIP. As long as we are in the EU.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @kiranstacey: Well done to @owenjbennett on the Farage re-concession story: https://t.co/SDLHxFQ1jN
  • surbiton said:

    How much should leave be ahead in Sunderland to have a chance of winning

    60:40
    I thought it was 53-47?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    RobD said:

    Are there really that few counting areas expected to go remain?

    Not many district/non-metropolitan councils are likely to vote Remain in England.

    Possible/probable candidates (41):

    Warwick, Worcester, Derbyshire Dales, Charnwood, Oadby&Wigston, Rushcliffe, Cambridge, South Cambs, Hertsmere, North Herts, St Albans, Three Rivers, Watford, Welwyn Hatfield, Norwich, Chiltern, Wycombe, Hart, Winchester, Tunbridge Wells, Oxford, South Oxfordshire, Vale of White Horse, West Oxfordshire, Elmbridge, Epsom&Ewell, Guildford, Mole Valley, Reigate&Banstead, Waverley, Woking, Exeter, Cheltenham, Cotswold, Stroud, Eden, South Lakeland, Lancaster, Pendle, Preston, Harrogate.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,229
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    Who on earth are the 7% UKIP that voted REMAIN? :open_mouth:
    As Mike has reminded us for many a long year, the EU isn't of paramount importance to all that many. UKIP is a useful protest vehicle on other topics too (albeit ones that often play to a similar gallery).
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited June 2016
    My reading of the BBC report was that Swindon will vote Leave but much more narrowly than their model suggested it would.
  • Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Nigel Farage has just re-conceded. Genuinely.

    Is he cracking or trolling?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,854

    Watson starts the divided Tories theme.

    Tories are united, we can't let Corbyn become PM.

    He's the great unifier
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,816

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    Who on earth are the 7% UKIP that voted REMAIN? :open_mouth:
    As Mike has reminded us for many a long year, the EU isn't of paramount importance to all that many. UKIP is a useful protest vehicle on other topics too (albeit ones that often play to a similar gallery).
    so if it wasn't that important why is turnout so high ?

  • glwglw Posts: 10,390

    Watson starts the divided Tories theme.

    Well to be fair he's probably not wrong for once.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: It's been 2 minutes, and as yet we have no further concession updates from Nigel Farage.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,415
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: It's been 2 minutes, and as yet we have no further concession updates from Nigel Farage.

    Concessionwatch?
  • Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Nigel Farage has just re-conceded. Genuinely.

    Is he cracking or trolling?

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    We're going to get a lot of this.

    It's the insufferable smugness of the Remainers that i'm going to find hardest to bear.

    But, we must accept the result if it is this. For now.
    I don't think there will be any smugness (other than from TSE, natch). Whatever the final result, it's already clear that Leave have done hugely better than anyone expected. If they haven't won, they've certainly come very close to winning, despite the odds. That's food for thought for all politicians.
    I have nothing to be smug about.
    Yet
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    A really high turnout surely favours Leave.

    Well done on getting yo the station in time Southam.

    You still fancying Leave for this? You have any doubts at all.

    I still do. I'm still not convinced the polls, markets and bookies are right. Something feels wrong.
  • scoopscoop Posts: 64
    Pulpstar said:

    If Boston in Lincs comes out for remain, it IS all over lol.

    As a Grantham lad if Boston vote remain then my dick is a kipper.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873
    There seems to be a theme to Farage post election comments...I just can't quite put my finger on it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: .@tnewtondunn tells FacebookLive there's word a hedge fund exit poll has Leave ahead by 0.1%
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,812
    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCVickiYoung: Dozens of Tory MPs sign letter supporting Cameron. Talking to many in last week they were backing PM but gunning for Osborne. #euref

    #OsborneOut
    He would be made a scapegoat by bitter losers. What has he done that no one else has done in the Cons party who has been for Remain? What has he alone done that hasn't been sanctioned by Cons' Leavers?

    Slightly pathetic tbh.
    His head. Or no peace.

    That's the deal for a reunified party.
    The punishment budget. That was a completely unnecessary stunt, unworthy of a CoE. He's had a decent run, time for him to either shift sideways or start concentrating on his post-politics gravy train.
    Political parties for as long as anyone on here can remember have always threatened or bribed peoples' pay packets to win whatever election they want to win.
    Good lord, what did you get your degree in? Pointing out the bleedin' obvious? Politics is personal. Osborne crossed the line, as did Cameron (and I was a fan of both). I'm sure plenty of other people think everything was fine and dandy and acceptable. I am but one voter.
    Nigel will welcome your transfer of allegiance, I have no doubt. Happy canvassing.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,816

    Watson starts the divided Tories theme.

    Tories are united, we can't let Corbyn become PM.

    He's the great unifier
    he's youre only hope

    when things change youre fkd - for at least a decade
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,854

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Nigel Farage has just re-conceded. Genuinely.

    Is he cracking or trolling?

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    We're going to get a lot of this.

    It's the insufferable smugness of the Remainers that i'm going to find hardest to bear.

    But, we must accept the result if it is this. For now.
    I don't think there will be any smugness (other than from TSE, natch). Whatever the final result, it's already clear that Leave have done hugely better than anyone expected. If they haven't won, they've certainly come very close to winning, despite the odds. That's food for thought for all politicians.
    I have nothing to be smug about.
    Yet
    Nope, even if Remain wins, I have to ensure people like Casino Royale are happy to be a Tory member.,
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MikeL said:

    What's the overall par score for Sunderland (if National is 50:50)?

    This has already been linked to and is a forecast.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0

    53.9 - 46.1 in favour of Leave if ENGLAND goes 50-50. Suspect you need to add a point to take into account Scotland + N. Ireland - Wales
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,854
    Theresa Villiers calls it for Remain, blames project fear
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCVickiYoung: Dozens of Tory MPs sign letter supporting Cameron. Talking to many in last week they were backing PM but gunning for Osborne. #euref

    #OsborneOut
    He would be made a scapegoat by bitter losers. What has he done that no one else has done in the Cons party who has been for Remain? What has he alone done that hasn't been sanctioned by Cons' Leavers?

    Slightly pathetic tbh.
    His head. Or no peace.

    That's the deal for a reunified party.
    The punishment budget. That was a completely unnecessary stunt, unworthy of a CoE. He's had a decent run, time for him to either shift sideways or start concentrating on his post-politics gravy train.
    Political parties for as long as anyone on here can remember have always threatened or bribed peoples' pay packets to win whatever election they want to win.
    Good lord, what did you get your degree in? Pointing out the bleedin' obvious? Politics is personal. Osborne crossed the line, as did Cameron (and I was a fan of both). I'm sure plenty of other people think everything was fine and dandy and acceptable. I am but one voter.
    Nigel will welcome your transfer of allegiance, I have no doubt. Happy canvassing.
    UKIP? Lol.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: .@tnewtondunn tells FacebookLive there's word a hedge fund exit poll has Leave ahead by 0.1%

    Loud Howard to the mic...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    PeterC said:

    MikeL said:

    What's the overall par score for Sunderland (if National is 50:50)?

    53/47 leave.
    I made it 54/46 Leave.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,390

    Watson starts the divided Tories theme.

    Tories are united, we can't let Corbyn become PM.

    He's the great unifier
    Find someone other than more posh boys would be a start, but only a start.
  • bazzerbazzer Posts: 44
    is there a link to a cheat sheet by Curtice on Hanratty or somebodrnouy monitoring what the turnout / result should be in each area if the result was 50/50 so we can compare how each count is going compared to expectation?
  • Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: .@tnewtondunn tells FacebookLive there's word a hedge fund exit poll has Leave ahead by 0.1%

    Good god.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    It just occurred to me there was probably an article in speculating wildly on what will happen to UKIP in either situation.

    I suppose if they lose narrowly they can continue to campaign a la the SNP. If they won would they disperse without much left to hold them together, if they lost badly would they sink to a hard core.
  • Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Nigel Farage has just re-conceded. Genuinely.

    Is he cracking or trolling?

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    We're going to get a lot of this.

    It's the insufferable smugness of the Remainers that i'm going to find hardest to bear.

    But, we must accept the result if it is this. For now.
    I don't think there will be any smugness (other than from TSE, natch). Whatever the final result, it's already clear that Leave have done hugely better than anyone expected. If they haven't won, they've certainly come very close to winning, despite the odds. That's food for thought for all politicians.
    I have nothing to be smug about.
    Yet
    Nope, even if Remain wins, I have to ensure people like Casino Royale are happy to be a Tory member.,
    Just keep sending him the thoughts of Corbyn and Abbot
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    SeanT said:

    I hope and expect to see much grovelling from the likes of Richard "it'll be 70/30" Nabavi..

    60/40.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Are there really that few counting areas expected to go remain?

    Not many district/non-metropolitan councils are likely to vote Remain in England.

    Possible/probable candidates (41):

    Warwick, Worcester, Derbyshire Dales, Charnwood, Oadby&Wigston, Rushcliffe, Cambridge, South Cambs, Hertsmere, North Herts, St Albans, Three Rivers, Watford, Welwyn Hatfield, Norwich, Chiltern, Wycombe, Hart, Winchester, Tunbridge Wells, Oxford, South Oxfordshire, Vale of White Horse, West Oxfordshire, Elmbridge, Epsom&Ewell, Guildford, Mole Valley, Reigate&Banstead, Waverley, Woking, Exeter, Cheltenham, Cotswold, Stroud, Eden, South Lakeland, Lancaster, Pendle, Preston, Harrogate.
    Sevenoaks, Guildford too
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,783
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: .@tnewtondunn tells FacebookLive there's word a hedge fund exit poll has Leave ahead by 0.1%

    Won't have the postals fully in that.

    This ain't over people....
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Theresa Villiers calls it for Remain, blames project fear

    I don't get why you would say something like this so early, unless they know something we don't...

  • StarfallStarfall Posts: 78
    Farage claiming the 48 hour voter registration has won it for Remain.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,390

    There seems to be a theme to Farage post election comments...I just can't quite put my finger on it.

    You'd probably recognise the taste and smell.
  • Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    We're going to get a lot of this.

    It's the insufferable smugness of the Remainers that i'm going to find hardest to bear.

    But, we must accept the result if it is this. For now.
    I don't think there will be any smugness (other than from TSE, natch). Whatever the final result, it's already clear that Leave have done hugely better than anyone expected. If they haven't won, they've certainly come very close to winning, despite the odds. That's food for thought for all politicians.
    I have nothing to be smug about.
    TBF i have never found TSE smug

    That isnt the case of others
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,854
    glw said:

    Watson starts the divided Tories theme.

    Tories are united, we can't let Corbyn become PM.

    He's the great unifier
    Find someone other than more posh boys would be a start, but only a start.
    The country likes posh boys.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,415
    Starfall said:

    Farage claiming the 48 hour voter registration has won it for Remain.

    We're never going to hear the end of it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Why is any politician claiming to know the result? Absolutely nothing to be gained.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,812
    edited June 2016
    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCVickiYoung: Dozens of Tory MPs sign letter supporting Cameron. Talking to many in last week they were backing PM but gunning for Osborne. #euref

    #OsborneOut
    He would be made a scapegoat by bitter losers. What has he done that no one else has done in the Cons party who has been for Remain? What has he alone done that hasn't been sanctioned by Cons' Leavers?

    Slightly pathetic tbh.
    His head. Or no peace.

    That's the deal for a reunified party.
    The punishment budget. That was a completely unnecessary stunt, unworthy of a CoE. He's had a decent run, time for him to either shift sideways or start concentrating on his post-politics gravy train.
    Political parties for as long as anyone on here can remember have always threatened or bribed peoples' pay packets to win whatever election they want to win.
    Good lord, what did you get your degree in? Pointing out the bleedin' obvious? Politics is personal. Osborne crossed the line, as did Cameron (and I was a fan of both). I'm sure plenty of other people think everything was fine and dandy and acceptable. I am but one voter.
    Nigel will welcome your transfer of allegiance, I have no doubt. Happy canvassing.
    UKIP? Lol.
    Exactly.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: .@tnewtondunn tells FacebookLive there's word a hedge fund exit poll has Leave ahead by 0.1%


    Giggle.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,229

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    Who on earth are the 7% UKIP that voted REMAIN? :open_mouth:
    As Mike has reminded us for many a long year, the EU isn't of paramount importance to all that many. UKIP is a useful protest vehicle on other topics too (albeit ones that often play to a similar gallery).
    so if it wasn't that important why is turnout so high ?

    Just quoting the Mori Issues index figures. It's not of overriding importance as a vote-determinant. That's not to say that people don't think it'll have an impact on their lives.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Nigel Farage has just re-conceded. Genuinely.

    Is he cracking or trolling?

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    We're going to get a lot of this.

    It's the insufferable smugness of the Remainers that i'm going to find hardest to bear.

    But, we must accept the result if it is this. For now.
    I don't think there will be any smugness (other than from TSE, natch). Whatever the final result, it's already clear that Leave have done hugely better than anyone expected. If they haven't won, they've certainly come very close to winning, despite the odds. That's food for thought for all politicians.
    I have nothing to be smug about.
    Yet
    Nope, even if Remain wins, I have to ensure people like Casino Royale are happy to be a Tory member.,
    Sorry can't vote Tory without an outer as leader even if Corbyn is likely to be PM at least he is honest.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    We're going to get a lot of this.

    It's the insufferable smugness of the Remainers that i'm going to find hardest to bear.

    But, we must accept the result if it is this. For now.
    I don't think there will be any smugness (other than from TSE, natch). Whatever the final result, it's already clear that Leave have done hugely better than anyone expected. If they haven't won, they've certainly come very close to winning, despite the odds. That's food for thought for all politicians.
    I have nothing to be smug about.
    How many did you manage to knock up ? Do you think as the results won't be known for ish six weeks.
  • Starfall said:

    Farage claiming the 48 hour voter registration has won it for Remain.

    So hes not conceding he is stirring it
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCRichardMoss: Labour sources say sampling in Sunderland suggest 54% Leave, 46% Remain. #EUref
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,471
    edited June 2016

    I made it. Got into the station at 9.47. Ran to the car, broke every speed limit and got there as they were preparing to close down. I was the second last in; the last person was also a late train casualty and also Remain.

    Very pleased to have taken part!

    Delighted to hear you made it @SouthamObserver ! Splendid effort :smiley:

    (edited for spelling)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: .@tnewtondunn tells FacebookLive there's word a hedge fund exit poll has Leave ahead by 0.1%

    Good god.
    Lawyers rubbing their hands....praying to lucifer!!!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,487
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: .@tnewtondunn tells FacebookLive there's word a hedge fund exit poll has Leave ahead by 0.1%

    Oh, for pete's sake...
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Farage hokey kokey.. are we in or out at this minute
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,907

    Why is any politician claiming to know the result? Absolutely nothing to be gained.

    That's what I can't work out? 60/40 LEAVE postal votes in Sunderland looks like "game on"?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,816

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Nigel Farage has just re-conceded. Genuinely.

    Is he cracking or trolling?

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    We're going to get a lot of this.

    It's the insufferable smugness of the Remainers that i'm going to find hardest to bear.

    But, we must accept the result if it is this. For now.
    I don't think there will be any smugness (other than from TSE, natch). Whatever the final result, it's already clear that Leave have done hugely better than anyone expected. If they haven't won, they've certainly come very close to winning, despite the odds. That's food for thought for all politicians.
    I have nothing to be smug about.
    Yet
    Nope, even if Remain wins, I have to ensure people like Casino Royale are happy to be a Tory member.,
    by backing EU tax dodging multinats over your own people ?

    I can see a problem
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: It's been 2 minutes, and as yet we have no further concession updates from Nigel Farage.

    Bravo Scott - your fun filters are even more finely tuned on election nights.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCRichardMoss: Labour sources say sampling in Sunderland suggest 54% Leave, 46% Remain. #EUref

    Plus postal votes or including?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    Chameleon said:

    Theresa Villiers calls it for Remain, blames project fear

    I don't get why you would say something like this so early, unless they know something we don't...

    She didn't call it as such, just said if pressed she'd say it will be Remain.

    She's one of the Cameron signatories. Thinks Project Fear might have scared voters into Remain but still happy to sit opposite Cameron at the cabinet table...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356
    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    IN sources say two late poll shifts: 1. status quo reversion on economy 2. Core Labour Remain turnout soars on revulsion at Leave tactics

    I have the scars of US 2004 - there were lots of smug Democrats calling it comfortably for Kerry based on early returns in Ohio and Penn.
    Bush led in most final polls though
    Not in the exit polls in Ohio- Kerry was comfortably ahead.

    US exit polls tend to update as the day goes on, Kerry did do well in the earliest polls, yes
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,812
    Conservative Leave MPs now sounding like Conservative MPs.

    Rather than loons.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,301
    Starfall said:

    Farage claiming the 48 hour voter registration has won it for Remain.

    How dare we have legally entitled members of the electorate being given the chance to vote!!!!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCRichardMoss: Labour sources say sampling in Sunderland suggest 54% Leave, 46% Remain. #EUref

    if true, all over, time for bed.
  • GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    Who on earth are the 7% UKIP that voted REMAIN? :open_mouth:
    As Mike has reminded us for many a long year, the EU isn't of paramount importance to all that many. UKIP is a useful protest vehicle on other topics too (albeit ones that often play to a similar gallery).
    I think the turnout today shows that the EU is important to lots of people !!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356
    edited June 2016
    Liz Truss, Nicky Morgan, Chuka Umunna, Eddie Izzard at Remain Party on ITV
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,244
    Farage needs to stop embarrassing himself.
  • StarfallStarfall Posts: 78
    More Eurosceptics deserting the Tory part is presumably very good for Tory pro-Europeans in getting a Remainer as thier next leader.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 739
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCRichardMoss: Labour sources say sampling in Sunderland suggest 54% Leave, 46% Remain. #EUref

    Oh my, that's very close to par!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,854
    edited June 2016

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Nigel Farage has just re-conceded. Genuinely.

    Is he cracking or trolling?

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    We're going to get a lot of this.

    It's the insufferable smugness of the Remainers that i'm going to find hardest to bear.

    But, we must accept the result if it is this. For now.
    I don't think there will be any smugness (other than from TSE, natch). Whatever the final result, it's already clear that Leave have done hugely better than anyone expected. If they haven't won, they've certainly come very close to winning, despite the odds. That's food for thought for all politicians.
    I have nothing to be smug about.
    Yet
    Nope, even if Remain wins, I have to ensure people like Casino Royale are happy to be a Tory member.,
    by backing EU tax dodging multinats over your own people ?

    I can see a problem
    A scandalous misrepresentation of my views and of the EU.

    I also did it to keep Northern Ireland peaceful
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Kettering turnout: 76% compared to 67% at GE.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,110
    Kettering turnout 76% - above GE.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    I've no idea what my prediction was for the referendum. I guess I made one.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Eddie izzard is on the winning side ?
  • GIN1138 said:

    Why is any politician claiming to know the result? Absolutely nothing to be gained.

    That's what I can't work out? 60/40 LEAVE postal votes in Sunderland looks like "game on"?
    Add that to the sampling and it looks like 55% leave.

    We might not know the final result for weeks....
  • Scott_P said:

    @BBCRichardMoss: Labour sources say sampling in Sunderland suggest 54% Leave, 46% Remain. #EUref

    Initially looks like not enough for Leave, if true.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    bazzer said:

    is there a link to a cheat sheet by Curtice on Hanratty or somebodrnouy monitoring what the turnout / result should be in each area if the result was 50/50 so we can compare how each count is going compared to expectation?

    Not sure anyone's done that but I'll stand corrected if they have.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    BBC says Kettering turn out is up 9% on the GE.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 739
    Kettering turnout 76% - in GE2015 it was 67.3%
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,812
    edited June 2016
    Biggest lie of the evening.

    DD, describing Kettering's turnout of 76% vs 67% at the GE said:

    "This is really interesting."
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Betfair fast approaching £70m matched...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,199

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCRichardMoss: Labour sources say sampling in Sunderland suggest 54% Leave, 46% Remain. #EUref

    if true, all over, time for bed.
    What makes you say it is all over on those figures
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Pound touched 1.50 vs Dollar

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obAoPP1bdIM
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCRichardMoss: Labour sources say sampling in Sunderland suggest 54% Leave, 46% Remain. #EUref

    if true, all over, time for bed.
    Par, on the dot.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,816

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Nigel Farage has just re-conceded. Genuinely.

    Is he cracking or trolling?

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    We're going to get a lot of this.

    It's the insufferable smugness of the Remainers that i'm going to find hardest to bear.

    But, we must accept the result if it is this. For now.
    I don't think there will be any smugness (other than from TSE, natch). Whatever the final result, it's already clear that Leave have done hugely better than anyone expected. If they haven't won, they've certainly come very close to winning, despite the odds. That's food for thought for all politicians.
    I have nothing to be smug about.
    Yet
    Nope, even if Remain wins, I have to ensure people like Casino Royale are happy to be a Tory member.,
    by backing EU tax dodging multinats over your own people ?

    I can see a problem
    A scandalous misrepresentation of my views and of the EU.

    I also did it keep Northern Ireland peaceful
    break out the armalites
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,372
    HYUFD said:

    Liz Truss, Nicky Morgan, Chuka Umunna, Eddie Izzard at Remain Party on ITV

    Oh JEsus lol
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,301

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    I was with you on that, Richard, but given that the Leave campaign made such a big deal of the £350 million a week line, I think it became valid again.

    It's £350 million a week if we ignore the £100 million a week direct rebate and about £120 million a week of that EU funding, of course, and I certainly know you weren't one of those pushing that daft line. As someone who started off leaning Leave, it pissed me off somewhat (partly because I'd already, like you, got my hackles up at the "EU funding" claim; the Leave line more than legitimised the Remain claim, it went way beyond that into outright mendacity.
    I know it might be daft to get into this now but the rebate is not £100 million. It is about £60 million a week. Our donation to the EU is £288 million a week after the rebate. That is the number they should have been using as I said before.
    It's EU spending in the UK.

    Evidently we needn't replicate it but some in Leave have say we would.
    No its UK taxpayers money that we send to the EU and they send back to us with their own conditions attached - including often a demand for matched funding.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCRichardMoss: Labour sources say sampling in Sunderland suggest 54% Leave, 46% Remain. #EUref

    Initially looks like not enough for Leave, if true.
    Isn't that only 1% off "par" if true? Given the car manufacturing there it's within margin of error certainly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356
    edited June 2016
    Starfall said:

    More Eurosceptics deserting the Tory part is presumably very good for Tory pro-Europeans in getting a Remainer as thier next leader.

    57% of Tory voters voted Leave according to Yougov, not much good if the Tories get a Remainer as leader and are left with just 43% of their own voters.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    The best bit of campaigning I remember seeing was the "call your nan" campaign by the remain side. I'm not sure how long it ran or how effective it was, but the idea of using it to mobilise your supporters into activity while also taking what's probably your only shot of shifting some of your solid opponents.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,199
    Sky saying about 70% turnout
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,707

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCRichardMoss: Labour sources say sampling in Sunderland suggest 54% Leave, 46% Remain. #EUref

    Initially looks like not enough for Leave, if true.
    That would be my guess. However, it's also possible that the Nissan factory has skewed the result slightly.

    All to play for at 54%.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,487
    Where's Sunil?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,040
    Fenster said:

    A really high turnout surely favours Leave.

    Well done on getting yo the station in time Southam.

    You still fancying Leave for this? You have any doubts at all.

    I still do. I'm still not convinced the polls, markets and bookies are right. Something feels wrong.

    I think the high turnout is potentially very good for Leave. So I still think they'll edge it.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: .@tnewtondunn tells FacebookLive there's word a hedge fund exit poll has Leave ahead by 0.1%

    You're kidding.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356
    Hammond as a more eurosceptic Remainer may be a better bet, Osborne would now clearly be a disaster for the Tory vote
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,710
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCRichardMoss: Labour sources say sampling in Sunderland suggest 54% Leave, 46% Remain. #EUref

    Nowhere near good enough.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873
    HYUFD said:

    Liz Truss, Nicky Morgan, Chuka Umunna, Eddie Izzard at Remain Party on ITV

    Bring back the cruise of the damned all is forgiven.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCRichardMoss: Labour sources say sampling in Sunderland suggest 54% Leave, 46% Remain. #EUref

    That's almost on-par for 50/50 England. Doesn't suggest a walkover for Remain. Doesn't suggest we know the overall result yet.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,301
    scoop said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Boston in Lincs comes out for remain, it IS all over lol.

    As a Grantham lad if Boston vote remain then my dick is a kipper.
    I say Scoop I am just along the road from you in Ancaster.... well actually I am in Aberdeen right now but I live in Ancaster

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @steverichards14: Douglas Carswell-a decent politician- knows he's lost...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,707
    Oh Amber...
This discussion has been closed.