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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LEAVE back in the lead with YouGov while ORB phone sees gap
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LEAVE back in the lead with YouGov while ORB phone sees gap get narrower
Still to come the big National Centre survey – an academic project led by Professor John Curtice. This is embargoed until midnight although it has been widely reported showing a 6% REMAIN lead.
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They are doing what they think is best for the country, but it turns into a disaster for the country
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/745001256217944068
He owns the centre-ground.
If his right wing go nuts on Friday, he could play poker, pull the Ariel Sharon/Kadima stunt and probably get away with it.
He must be at least a little bit tempted...
The official Vote Leave campaign group appears to have added fake sound effects of blood-curdling screams and smashing glass to footage of a brawl in the Turkish parliament that it used to warn of the prospect of Turkey joining the EU.
A comparison of the Vote Leave broadcast with the original footage by The Independent indicates that the audio track was doctored.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-vote-leave-campaign-turkey-video-doctored-screams-a7092191.html
But contrary to the easily despondent, things are still about even. I was wrong Leave's momentum was irreversible, but Remain are not cantering in on all polls.
Very accurate for the time it was taken. However the massive time period over which it was conducted means that it may not be especially relevant.
Gove is far more liberal, BoJo too. IDS resigned over Osborne presiding over the most right wing 'no change' budget possible.
And he has destroyed his party to boot.
He is the very embodiment of a big business technocrat. He'll be out by the end of the year.
What Blairites forget is that the first and strongest 80% of your support is from loyalists. Disappointing them means you're stuck with the 20% of your ficklest voters.
@janemerrick23: Wow - pro-Leave Michael Howard says there's "something to be said" for waiting to see if EU comes up with a better deal after Leave vote
We were just kidding...
The idea being that if you earn more, you don't get a like for like benefit loss.
Osborne ripped that up. People complained, Osborne blamed it on IDS, so he walked.
There's going to be poll after poll showing The Tories doing better if he were still leader.
http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2016-06-20/bristol-north-west-mp-chooses-brexit/
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/michael-sandford-threatens-kill-trump-224562
Sounds like he's a Brit...
http://heavy.com/news/2016/06/michael-steven-sandford-donald-trump-las-vegas-rally-assassination-attempt-kill-arrest/
He's turned being anti EU into a mainstream sport.
As ever failure to plan and reliance on last minute scare tactics
What odds would that be?
Is he any good?
Remain campaign chiefs said on Sunday night that between 10 and 25 per cent of voters fall into the undecided or persuadable categories
Comparing the two can work both ways
Not sure that would be high on my list of priorities.
Maybe sponsor a course on International Political Corruption and Political Horsetrading in the 21st century within a European closed shop.
Peter Mandelson could be made Professor Emeritus and Course Director.
I suspect if voters were asked in person when in the voting booth they would choose Remain, however as there will be no one judging/asking on the day, I think the online polls are more accurate. We shall see :-)
http://www.natcen.ac.uk/news-media/press-releases/2016/june/natcen-eu-referendum-survey/
https://t.co/4CVdmCRwPk
Happily those things are mutually compatible for me.
Feels to me like the Greece vote last year - everyone thought they'd accept the deal, polls pointed to it, and yet people stuck two fingers up to Brussels.
I suspect the effect of the Jo Cox events will probably mean a Leave vote, really for five reasons:
1. The voice of those who believe that a Brexit vote is a vote for Racism has suddenly become much louder - and that will alienate a lot of WWC voters who have been told for God knows how long that to complain about anything immigration-related was racism. That "Brexit is racism" voice had managed to keep itself relatively muted but feels like it has been given full flow by what has happened. That, in turn, is likely to make many more WWC come out to vote (and I think it will impact the phone polls - I would like to see the Lab splits for Remain / Leave on the ORB poll; if there is a high Remain vote, I would point to Shy Leavers).
2. It has taken a lot of the attention away from the economic side - one thing I found working to convince potential Leavers to waiver was the impact on the economy / personal finances. But the news has now been dominated by the impact of the murder and that has switched attention from the economy / business side.
3. The markets have rallied which has also taken away some of the fear factor on the economy side - the best thing for Remain would have been the FTSE and sterling falling into the run up to the vote. Instead, we have both rising and it is always harder to persuade people of the negative impact when you have rising markets.
4. It has put the focus back on immigration - people will have their own view on Farage, but the discussion about immigration has been given more fuel by what has happened and the poster. As someone earlier said, Farage knows what he is doing with that image, it is to get out his core vote.
5. Pure anecdotally, but I am getting a lot of feedback from friends who range across the spectrum that they have found the whole remembrance thing pretty low politicking. To give two (of a number of) anecdotes: our left-wing, pro-Remain neighbour said he found it despicable that the murder was used for political purposes when the body was barely cold and a colleague at work who was Leave and then wavering is now back to Leave because of what he sees as manufactured outrage. I suspect this view is more common than admitted.
It will be 1. though that will really be the decider - I think many of the votes in the North, Wales etc are really going to shock Remain.
PS: one anecdote from London - we drove through Holland Park, South Ken and Chelsea area on Sunday - 8 Leave posters, 2 Remain (both Earls Court). Oh, and I saw my first Leave poster in Hampstead
TheScreamingEagles
The official Vote Leave campaign group appears to have added fake sound effects of blood-curdling screams and smashing glass to footage of a brawl in the Turkish parliament that it used to warn of the prospect of Turkey joining the EU.
A comparison of the Vote Leave broadcast with the original footage by The Independent indicates that the audio track was doctored.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-vote-leave-campaign-turkey-video-doctored-screams-a7092191.html'
'Or originally doctored and muted by the Independent.
Comparing the two can work both ways'
Who cares about the sound effects when you have footage like that ?
We have a very serious mountain to climb to reengage with our supporters.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/09/pro-remain-tory-matthew-parris/
I'm not sure it can be compared with the shy tory effect either. we often hear that leavers are more passionate than remain. We have witnessed before the understating of the tory vote, but rarely the understating of the UKIP vote. Passionate supporters aren't shy. Tories have previously had a shy vote from middle class types who don't particularly involve themselves with politics generally but reliably vote tory come election time. it seems to me like the winning coalition for Leave would be a majority UKIP, large minority labour working class, so not seeing a history of shy voters there.
I doubt the polls are showing a significant shy effect to either remain or leave.
Friends in central London pub tonight watching the England game shocked when I said I was for leave, then turns out we were split 50/50. It's just soooo uncool to be for leave at the moment in metropolitan areas.
I've been polled by MORI a couple of times on the phone and I've definitely been on my guard about what I say and admit to.