Apart from 1 Online poll (Latest), every Remain lead has been by Phone.
I suspect if voters were asked in person when in the voting booth they would choose Remain, however as there will be no one judging/asking on the day, I think the online polls are more accurate. We shall see :-)
Agreed, there is a large shy leave effect going on amplified by the tragic events of last week. Friends in central London pub tonight watching the England game shocked when I said I was for leave, then turns out we were split 50/50. It's just soooo uncool to be for leave at the moment in metropolitan areas.
Yeah but remember what some Remain people have said about strong Leave areas. They've had a pretty hard time of it. So shy could work both ways.
Big news to me though is Curtice saying Leave's chances are 40-45%.
The confidence interval on that sample size is 0.17, I'd like to know the result to 1 dps tbh ^^;
Whatever it is very very close.
Well it might not be very close, the GE wasn't after all, but it seems there'll be nothing definitive before the result - even if we get several big leads one way, there's a couple of polls looking positive for the other.
Apart from 1 Online poll (Latest), every Remain lead has been by Phone.
I suspect if voters were asked in person when in the voting booth they would choose Remain, however as there will be no one judging/asking on the day, I think the online polls are more accurate. We shall see :-)
Agreed, there is a large shy leave effect going on amplified by the tragic events of last week. Friends in central London pub tonight watching the England game shocked when I said I was for leave, then turns out we were split 50/50. It's just soooo uncool to be for leave at the moment in metropolitan areas.
Problem is that we all have similar anecdotes from both sides. Talking to a friend that I thought would be a def leaver (has big concerns about immigration and it's affect on infrastructure etc) but now is a tentative remainer (due to economic risks of leaving).
If we believe that it is going to come down to the wire then Glastonbury has the potential to swing the referendum ~0.3% towards Leave because I suspect that it will be very easy for attendees to not to bother to vote (most of whom are young and highly educated).
Secondly, and much more importantly, the postal votes went out at peak leave, if Leave had ~ a 6% lead (53-47) then on the day remain may need 51-49 to get a score draw.
Apart from 1 Online poll (Latest), every Remain lead has been by Phone.
I suspect if voters were asked in person when in the voting booth they would choose Remain, however as there will be no one judging/asking on the day, I think the online polls are more accurate. We shall see :-)
Agreed, there is a large shy leave effect going on amplified by the tragic events of last week. Friends in central London pub tonight watching the England game shocked when I said I was for leave, then turns out we were split 50/50. It's just soooo uncool to be for leave at the moment in metropolitan areas.
Try coming out for Remain in a working mens' club then!!
5. Pure anecdotally, but I am getting a lot of feedback from friends who range across the spectrum that they have found the whole remembrance thing pretty low politicking. To give two (of a number of) anecdotes: our left-wing, pro-Remain neighbour said he found it despicable that the murder was used for political purposes when the body was barely cold and a colleague at work who was Leave and then wavering is now back to Leave because of what he sees as manufactured outrage. I suspect this view is more common than admitted.
When I tried to express my own experience with this sort of view the other day, I was quickly shut down by a number of apparently hard left posters.
Apart from 1 Online poll (Latest), every Remain lead has been by Phone.
I suspect if voters were asked in person when in the voting booth they would choose Remain, however as there will be no one judging/asking on the day, I think the online polls are more accurate. We shall see :-)
Agreed, there is a large shy leave effect going on amplified by the tragic events of last week. Friends in central London pub tonight watching the England game shocked when I said I was for leave, then turns out we were split 50/50. It's just soooo uncool to be for leave at the moment in metropolitan areas.
Same goes for Remainers in some other parts of society. Try suggsting that you are for Remain down my Local!
Following on from Rogers excellent appraisal of where Cameron now/may stand is contemporary Britain after Thursday I wondered what our Conservative posters view was on an obvious issue ? How do the broad europhile liberal left like myself express our gratitude to Cameron after Thursday ? He's a young man so decades till the inevitable statues our new Robert Peel deserves are errected. I like the idea of public subscription to something. I wondered about a fund to Endow " Cameron Scholarships " for disadvantaged kids bright enough to go to the College of Europe ? A last intergenerational commeration for a patriots unique contribution to Britain's historic destiny ? What do Conservatives think ?
The "europhile liberal left" might do well to consider why all the poor areas of the UK are voting Leave. If the EU has been so good for us over all these years, why is the North East or Wales so piss poor?
Still, I am sure you can be Executive Director of the Office of David and Samantha Cameron, parcelling out the grants in due course.
Another idea came to me. How about the four PM's who started, deepened then secured our European destiny, Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron carved into the White Cliffs of Dover in homage to Mount Rushmore ? With Cameron slightly prominent and a strong chin ?
Apart from 1 Online poll (Latest), every Remain lead has been by Phone.
I suspect if voters were asked in person when in the voting booth they would choose Remain, however as there will be no one judging/asking on the day, I think the online polls are more accurate. We shall see :-)
Your comment assumes the explanation for the gap is that (the same) people behave differently on the phone from on the computer, whereas the explanation for the difference is more likely to be that different segments of the population get captured in online versus phone polling. Given their lack of landlines I would have thought phone polling would struggle to capture many young people, but it seems to be leaning nevertheless to remain, whereas online polls lean to leave. The likelihood that fanatical leavers are overly keen to participate in online polling does seem to me to be the most likely explanation for the difference, in which case it isn't such good news for leave.....?
Except that if you look at online polling it tends to be more extreme at BOTH ends of the spectrum, E.g. more older leavers/more younger remainers. The total effect is to approximately cancel these extremities out.
The important difference is phone polls tend to have difficulty sampling those of working age, particularly older workers who are the largest voting block.
Apart from 1 Online poll (Latest), every Remain lead has been by Phone.
I suspect if voters were asked in person when in the voting booth they would choose Remain, however as there will be no one judging/asking on the day, I think the online polls are more accurate. We shall see :-)
Agreed, there is a large shy leave effect going on amplified by the tragic events of last week. Friends in central London pub tonight watching the England game shocked when I said I was for leave, then turns out we were split 50/50. It's just soooo uncool to be for leave at the moment in metropolitan areas.
Same goes for Remainers in some other parts of society. Try suggsting that you are for Remain down my Local!
True, one other snippet, my confidence that it was in the bag for remain due to Jo's assassination was met with universal disbelief. Perhaps those of us constantly updating Twitter and here are very out of touch. Must say I'm very happy about the yougov, was convinced the move to to remain would pick up stream. All to play for, might actually conecome down the debate tomorrow. Hoping leave have the Wales strike force rather than England's.
The confidence interval on that sample size is 0.17, I'd like to know the result to 1 dps tbh ^^;
Whatever it is very very close.
Well it might not be very close, the GE wasn't after all, but it seems there'll be nothing definitive before the result - even if we get several big leads one way, there's a couple of polls looking positive for the other.
The postal vote as a proportion of the seeming VI makes me wonder ...
Apart from 1 Online poll (Latest), every Remain lead has been by Phone.
I suspect if voters were asked in person when in the voting booth they would choose Remain, however as there will be no one judging/asking on the day, I think the online polls are more accurate. We shall see :-)
Agreed, there is a large shy leave effect going on amplified by the tragic events of last week. Friends in central London pub tonight watching the England game shocked when I said I was for leave, then turns out we were split 50/50. It's just soooo uncool to be for leave at the moment in metropolitan areas.
Try coming out for Remain in a working mens' club then!!
Apart from 1 Online poll (Latest), every Remain lead has been by Phone.
I suspect if voters were asked in person when in the voting booth they would choose Remain, however as there will be no one judging/asking on the day, I think the online polls are more accurate. We shall see :-)
Agreed, there is a large shy leave effect going on amplified by the tragic events of last week. Friends in central London pub tonight watching the England game shocked when I said I was for leave, then turns out we were split 50/50. It's just soooo uncool to be for leave at the moment in metropolitan areas.
Same goes for Remainers in some other parts of society. Try suggsting that you are for Remain down my Local!
Can I just say that, in my patch of the north-west, I'm still yet to see a SINGLE "Remain" poster.
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
5. Pure anecdotally, but I am getting a lot of feedback from friends who range across the spectrum that they have found the whole remembrance thing pretty low politicking. To give two (of a number of) anecdotes: our left-wing, pro-Remain neighbour said he found it despicable that the murder was used for political purposes when the body was barely cold and a colleague at work who was Leave and then wavering is now back to Leave because of what he sees as manufactured outrage. I suspect this view is more common than admitted.
When I tried to express my own experience with this sort of view the other day, I was quickly shut down by a number of apparently hard left posters.
We've already seen some people express the view a Remain win would be 'unfair' due to the Cox effect, as though it is even possible to determine whether it had an impact and whether it is fair in itself to claim a result if not fair because you don't like how people determined their votes, but I will state with confidence that when Leave win suddenly we'll see a lot of talk about how there was no Cox effect after all.
Another idea came to me. How about the four PM's who started, deepened then secured our European destiny, Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron carved into the White Cliffs of Dover in homage to Mount Rushmore ? With Cameron slightly prominent and a strong chin ?
5. Pure anecdotally, but I am getting a lot of feedback from friends who range across the spectrum that they have found the whole remembrance thing pretty low politicking. To give two (of a number of) anecdotes: our left-wing, pro-Remain neighbour said he found it despicable that the murder was used for political purposes when the body was barely cold and a colleague at work who was Leave and then wavering is now back to Leave because of what he sees as manufactured outrage. I suspect this view is more common than admitted.
When I tried to express my own experience with this sort of view the other day, I was quickly shut down by a number of apparently hard left posters.
You said it was not a "Safe Space" message, then found out what that meant. No sympathy.
Can I just say that, in my patch of the north-west, I'm still yet to see a SINGLE "Remain" poster.
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
Posters are a terrible predictor of electoral outcomes. Winning 'ere diamonds are usually as plentiful as the corresponding eventual Tory majority down here in the deep South.
Another idea came to me. How about the four PM's who started, deepened then secured our European destiny, Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron carved into the White Cliffs of Dover in homage to Mount Rushmore ? With Cameron slightly prominent and a strong chin ?
Isn't chalk porous? Mount Rushmore is granite.
It sounds an ideal project for the Eu? It would be expensive and vainglorious. And it would last -- what 5 years or 10 years -- before erosion through acidic rain water destroyed it.
Apart from 1 Online poll (Latest), every Remain lead has been by Phone.
I suspect if voters were asked in person when in the voting booth they would choose Remain, however as there will be no one judging/asking on the day, I think the online polls are more accurate. We shall see :-)
Agreed, there is a large shy leave effect going on amplified by the tragic events of last week. Friends in central London pub tonight watching the England game shocked when I said I was for leave, then turns out we were split 50/50. It's just soooo uncool to be for leave at the moment in metropolitan areas.
Try coming out for Remain in a working mens' club then!!
Apart from 1 Online poll (Latest), every Remain lead has been by Phone.
I suspect if voters were asked in person when in the voting booth they would choose Remain, however as there will be no one judging/asking on the day, I think the online polls are more accurate. We shall see :-)
Agreed, there is a large shy leave effect going on amplified by the tragic events of last week. Friends in central London pub tonight watching the England game shocked when I said I was for leave, then turns out we were split 50/50. It's just soooo uncool to be for leave at the moment in metropolitan areas.
Same goes for Remainers in some other parts of society. Try suggsting that you are for Remain down my Local!
Can I just say that, in my patch of the north-west, I'm still yet to see a SINGLE "Remain" poster.
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
Posters are a terrible predictor of electoral outcomes. Winning 'ere diamonds are usually as plentiful as the corresponding eventual Tory majority down here in the deep South.
Obviously the usual fields are voting UKIP/Leave.
I remember @currystar noting a distinct LACK of diamonds in Eastleigh. There were quite a few diamonds in Totley when I went there.
Apart from 1 Online poll (Latest), every Remain lead has been by Phone.
I suspect if voters were asked in person when in the voting booth they would choose Remain, however as there will be no one judging/asking on the day, I think the online polls are more accurate. We shall see :-)
Your comment assumes the explanation for the gap is that (the same) people behave differently on the phone from on the computer, whereas the explanation for the difference is more likely to be that different segments of the population get captured in online versus phone polling. Given their lack of landlines I would have thought phone polling would struggle to capture many young people, but it seems to be leaning nevertheless to remain, whereas online polls lean to leave. The likelihood that fanatical leavers are overly keen to participate in online polling does seem to me to be the most likely explanation for the difference, in which case it isn't such good news for leave.....?
The weakness of online polls is that the sample self-selects. Previously that almost certainly benefited Leave, but I suspect some of the movement to Remain last week, noted by Yougov and others was that of Remainers engaging rather than necessarily switching their votes. I think that effect is likely to wear off as you approach the date of the poll.
The weakness of phone polls is a differential reluctance to pick up the phone when called. The worst for not doing this are professionals, who are likely to vote Remain. Of course the polling companies will weight their samples accordingly but there was research done showing different EURef results depending on whether the poll was run during weekdays and weekends.
@faisalislam: Toyota criticise Leave for "ongoing misrepresentation" of its views -says faces 10% tariff if leave, wants to remain https://t.co/3dKa8hPXWB
Another idea came to me. How about the four PM's who started, deepened then secured our European destiny, Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron carved into the White Cliffs of Dover in homage to Mount Rushmore ? With Cameron slightly prominent and a strong chin ?
Isn't chalk porous? Mount Rushmore is granite.
It sounds an ideal project for the Eu? It would be expensive and vainglorious. And it would last -- what 5 years or 10 years -- before erosion through acidic rain water destroyed it.
But imagine the satisfaction of watching the whole thing crash into the sea.
Another idea came to me. How about the four PM's who started, deepened then secured our European destiny, Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron carved into the White Cliffs of Dover in homage to Mount Rushmore ? With Cameron slightly prominent and a strong chin ?
Isn't chalk porous? Mount Rushmore is granite.
It sounds an ideal project for the Eu? It would be expensive and vainglorious. And it would last -- what 5 years or 10 years -- before erosion through acidic rain water destroyed it.
Indeed. We'll also give 80% of the building jobs to immigrants.
5. Pure anecdotally, but I am getting a lot of feedback from friends who range across the spectrum that they have found the whole remembrance thing pretty low politicking. To give two (of a number of) anecdotes: our left-wing, pro-Remain neighbour said he found it despicable that the murder was used for political purposes when the body was barely cold and a colleague at work who was Leave and then wavering is now back to Leave because of what he sees as manufactured outrage. I suspect this view is more common than admitted.
When I tried to express my own experience with this sort of view the other day, I was quickly shut down by a number of apparently hard left posters.
We've already seen some people express the view a Remain win would be 'unfair' due to the Cox effect, as though it is even possible to determine whether it had an impact and whether it is fair in itself to claim a result if not fair because you don't like how people determined their votes, but I will state with confidence that when Leave win suddenly we'll see a lot of talk about how there was no Cox effect after all.
As you've said before, (and I agree) people are entitled to vote how they wish and on what basis they wish.
5. Pure anecdotally, but I am getting a lot of feedback from friends who range across the spectrum that they have found the whole remembrance thing pretty low politicking. To give two (of a number of) anecdotes: our left-wing, pro-Remain neighbour said he found it despicable that the murder was used for political purposes when the body was barely cold and a colleague at work who was Leave and then wavering is now back to Leave because of what he sees as manufactured outrage. I suspect this view is more common than admitted.
When I tried to express my own experience with this sort of view the other day, I was quickly shut down by a number of apparently hard left posters.
We've already seen some people express the view a Remain win would be 'unfair' due to the Cox effect, as though it is even possible to determine whether it had an impact and whether it is fair in itself to claim a result if not fair because you don't like how people determined their votes, but I will state with confidence that when Leave win suddenly we'll see a lot of talk about how there was no Cox effect after all.
As you've said before, (and I agree) people are entitled to vote how they wish and on what basis they wish.
Apart from 1 Online poll (Latest), every Remain lead has been by Phone.
I suspect if voters were asked in person when in the voting booth they would choose Remain, however as there will be no one judging/asking on the day, I think the online polls are more accurate. We shall see :-)
Your comment assumes the explanation for the gap is that (the same) people behave differently on the phone from on the computer, whereas the explanation for the difference is more likely to be that different segments of the population get captured in online versus phone polling. Given their lack of landlines I would have thought phone polling would struggle to capture many young people, but it seems to be leaning nevertheless to remain, whereas online polls lean to leave. The likelihood that fanatical leavers are overly keen to participate in online polling does seem to me to be the most likely explanation for the difference, in which case it isn't such good news for leave.....?
The weakness of online polls is that the sample self-selects. Previously that almost certainly benefited Leave, but I suspect some of the movement to Remain last week, noted by Yougov and others was that of Remainers engaging rather than necessarily switching their votes. I think that effect is likely to wear off as you approach the date of the poll.
The weakness of phone polls is a differential reluctance to pick up the phone when called. The worst for not doing this are professionals, who are likely to vote Remain. Of course the polling companies will weight their samples accordingly but there was research done showing different EURef results depending on whether the poll was run during weekdays and weekends.
Another idea came to me. How about the four PM's who started, deepened then secured our European destiny, Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron carved into the White Cliffs of Dover in homage to Mount Rushmore ? With Cameron slightly prominent and a strong chin ?
Isn't chalk porous? Mount Rushmore is granite.
It sounds an ideal project for the Eu? It would be expensive and vainglorious. And it would last -- what 5 years or 10 years -- before erosion through acidic rain water destroyed it.
Indeed. We'll also give 80% of the building jobs to immigrants.
Basically people are less convinced of economic woe versus Brexit than they are immigration being cut after Brexit, which is similar to what happened in the general election with the mismatch between the "headline" voting intention numbers and the economic and personal ratings Vis and vis Cameron and Miliband.
Can I just say that, in my patch of the north-west, I'm still yet to see a SINGLE "Remain" poster.
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
Posters are a terrible predictor of electoral outcomes. Winning 'ere diamonds are usually as plentiful as the corresponding eventual Tory majority down here in the deep South.
Obviously the usual fields are voting UKIP/Leave.
I've been leafleting and canvassing in south London. Some people will actually mouth to you how they're voting because they don't want the neighbours to hear. As for posters, I've seen none (apart from mine which looks out over railway tracks and therefore gets lots of views) and I must have been c1500 properties. Posters have been replaced by coming out on Facebook etc. I haven't done that although clearly many people do, but they tend to be usual suspects, so I don't know what effect that has anyway. Not a lot if last GE is anything to go by.
Apart from 1 Online poll (Latest), every Remain lead has been by Phone.
I suspect if voters were asked in person when in the voting booth they would choose Remain, however as there will be no one judging/asking on the day, I think the online polls are more accurate. We shall see :-)
Agreed, there is a large shy leave effect going on amplified by the tragic events of last week. Friends in central London pub tonight watching the England game shocked when I said I was for leave, then turns out we were split 50/50. It's just soooo uncool to be for leave at the moment in metropolitan areas.
Try coming out for Remain in a working mens' club then!!
Try coming out in a working mens' club!
Goodnight!
Yes I don't think it is Eddie Izzard's target audience!
Can I just say that, in my patch of the north-west, I'm still yet to see a SINGLE "Remain" poster.
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
Posters are a terrible predictor of electoral outcomes. Winning 'ere diamonds are usually as plentiful as the corresponding eventual Tory majority down here in the deep South.
Obviously the usual fields are voting UKIP/Leave.
I've been leafleting and canvassing in south London. Some people will actually mouth to you how they're voting because they don't want the neighbours to hear. As for posters, I've seen none (apart from mine which looks out over railway tracks and therefore gets lots of views) and I must have been c1500 properties. Posters have been replaced by coming out on Facebook etc. I haven't done that although clearly many people do, but they tend to be usual suspects, so I don't know what effect that has anyway. Not a lot if last GE is anything to go by.
Are you a Remainer or Leaver?
I've been leafleting and canvassing for 3 months in South East London, but have only seen homemade Leave posters or Daily Express cutouts in that time.
Can I just say that, in my patch of the north-west, I'm still yet to see a SINGLE "Remain" poster.
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
Posters are a terrible predictor of electoral outcomes. Winning 'ere diamonds are usually as plentiful as the corresponding eventual Tory majority down here in the deep South.
Obviously the usual fields are voting UKIP/Leave.
I've been leafleting and canvassing in south London. Some people will actually mouth to you how they're voting because they don't want the neighbours to hear. As for posters, I've seen none (apart from mine which looks out over railway tracks and therefore gets lots of views) and I must have been c1500 properties. Posters have been replaced by coming out on Facebook etc. I haven't done that although clearly many people do, but they tend to be usual suspects, so I don't know what effect that has anyway. Not a lot if last GE is anything to go by.
I am in South London and am currently toying with whether to put up my vote remain poster - I know at least one neighbour that I would seriously annoy. Am I a shy remainer?
After the results tonight, most bookies go 40/1 about Wales winning Euro2016
Corals are 60/1
I am on
I got on at 72s - and at 40 is surely still much better value than betting on England winning...
DYOR!
Wales are the only people who have scored past Slovakia's defence.
They reminded me of watching Leicester play, with a narro back 4 pushing attackers out wide. Conceeding corners and crosses because they can deal with them. If only they could score goals too.
Can I just say that, in my patch of the north-west, I'm still yet to see a SINGLE "Remain" poster.
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
Posters are a terrible predictor of electoral outcomes. Winning 'ere diamonds are usually as plentiful as the corresponding eventual Tory majority down here in the deep South.
Obviously the usual fields are voting UKIP/Leave.
I've been leafleting and canvassing in south London. Some people will actually mouth to you how they're voting because they don't want the neighbours to hear. As for posters, I've seen none (apart from mine which looks out over railway tracks and therefore gets lots of views) and I must have been c1500 properties. Posters have been replaced by coming out on Facebook etc. I haven't done that although clearly many people do, but they tend to be usual suspects, so I don't know what effect that has anyway. Not a lot if last GE is anything to go by.
I am in South London and am currently toying with whether to put up my vote remain poster - I know at least one neighbour that I would seriously annoy. Am I a shy remainer?
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
Can I just say that, in my patch of the north-west, I'm still yet to see a SINGLE "Remain" poster.
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
Posters are a terrible predictor of electoral outcomes. Winning 'ere diamonds are usually as plentiful as the corresponding eventual Tory majority down here in the deep South.
Obviously the usual fields are voting UKIP/Leave.
I've been leafleting and canvassing in south London. Some people will actually mouth to you how they're voting because they don't want the neighbours to hear. As for posters, I've seen none (apart from mine which looks out over railway tracks and therefore gets lots of views) and I must have been c1500 properties. Posters have been replaced by coming out on Facebook etc. I haven't done that although clearly many people do, but they tend to be usual suspects, so I don't know what effect that has anyway. Not a lot if last GE is anything to go by.
I am in South London and am currently toying with whether to put up my vote remain poster - I know at least one neighbour that I would seriously annoy. Am I a shy remainer?
It makes me sad that we can't be civil and open. Well, we can in Sussex where we can talk about the issues without assuming those who disagree with us are evil. So yes you are a shy remainer and it is a shame that you feel you have to be.
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
Sure I think we should have been building a regular team and consistent system though.
Can I just say that, in my patch of the north-west, I'm still yet to see a SINGLE "Remain" poster.
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
Posters are a terrible predictor of electoral outcomes. Winning 'ere diamonds are usually as plentiful as the corresponding eventual Tory majority down here in the deep South.
Obviously the usual fields are voting UKIP/Leave.
I've been leafleting and canvassing in south London. Some people will actually mouth to you how they're voting because they don't want the neighbours to hear. As for posters, I've seen none (apart from mine which looks out over railway tracks and therefore gets lots of views) and I must have been c1500 properties. Posters have been replaced by coming out on Facebook etc. I haven't done that although clearly many people do, but they tend to be usual suspects, so I don't know what effect that has anyway. Not a lot if last GE is anything to go by.
I was camping on the South Downs over the weekend. Driving through the various, painfully picturesque villages there were a LOT of hoardings and posters. About 5:1 in favour of Leave. Lots of ABC1s around...
That NatCen pamphlet linked to below is fascinating. You can see why the headline figures are *so* close. The classic factors pointing towards higher propensity to vote are so split between Remain and Leave. In Demographic terms there is no ' Establishment ' vote in the Referendum.
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
England have Jordan Henderson in their squad and they let him play in games.
That pretty much sums them up.
I really don't understand why anyone every plays Henderson. He is a decent Championship player at best. But he has to have some dirty pics of senior people at the FA. No other explanation.
Apart from 1 Online poll (Latest), every Remain lead has been by Phone.
I suspect if voters were asked in person when in the voting booth they would choose Remain, however as there will be no one judging/asking on the day, I think the online polls are more accurate. We shall see :-)
Agreed, there is a large shy leave effect going on amplified by the tragic events of last week. Friends in central London pub tonight watching the England game shocked when I said I was for leave, then turns out we were split 50/50. It's just soooo uncool to be for leave at the moment in metropolitan areas.
Exactly this! Exactly, it has been uncool to be for leave in any sizeable town or city since the start of the campaign but especially since the tragic killing of Jo Cox. This will be amplified in the phone polls.
That NatCen pamphlet linked to below is fascinating. You can see why the headline figures are *so* close. The classic factors pointing towards higher propensity to vote are so split between Remain and Leave. In Demographic terms there is no ' Establishment ' vote in the Referendum.
That Leave have managed to successfully portray itself as anti-establishment is one of the most ruthlessly efficient bits of political campaigning I've ever seen.
Can I just say that, in my patch of the north-west, I'm still yet to see a SINGLE "Remain" poster.
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
Posters are a terrible predictor of electoral outcomes. Winning 'ere diamonds are usually as plentiful as the corresponding eventual Tory majority down here in the deep South.
Obviously the usual fields are voting UKIP/Leave.
I've been leafleting and canvassing in south London. Some people will actually mouth to you how they're voting because they don't want the neighbours to hear. As for posters, I've seen none (apart from mine which looks out over railway tracks and therefore gets lots of views) and I must have been c1500 properties. Posters have been replaced by coming out on Facebook etc. I haven't done that although clearly many people do, but they tend to be usual suspects, so I don't know what effect that has anyway. Not a lot if last GE is anything to go by.
I am in South London and am currently toying with whether to put up my vote remain poster - I know at least one neighbour that I would seriously annoy. Am I a shy remainer?
It's affected my relationship with my next door neighbour - very slightly, it'll be alright - but he's now less chatty to me, warey almost. They're immigrants, from north Africa I would guess although we've never discussed that, who've been here maybe 15 years. I think he's a bit shocked. Never mind.
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
Sure I think we should have been building a regular team and consistent system though.
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
England have Jordan Henderson in their squad and they let him play in games.
That pretty much sums them up.
Interesting selection indeed. Not the world's most accurate....
Apart from 1 Online poll (Latest), every Remain lead has been by Phone.
I suspect if voters were asked in person when in the voting booth they would choose Remain, however as there will be no one judging/asking on the day, I think the online polls are more accurate. We shall see :-)
Agreed, there is a large shy leave effect going on amplified by the tragic events of last week. Friends in central London pub tonight watching the England game shocked when I said I was for leave, then turns out we were split 50/50. It's just soooo uncool to be for leave at the moment in metropolitan areas.
Exactly this! Exactly, it has been uncool to be for leave in any sizeable town or city since the start of the campaign but especially since the tragic killing of Jo Cox. This will be amplified in the phone polls.
In most market and seaside towns and villages you would be laughed at if you were Remain
Can I just say that, in my patch of the north-west, I'm still yet to see a SINGLE "Remain" poster.
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
Posters are a terrible predictor of electoral outcomes. Winning 'ere diamonds are usually as plentiful as the corresponding eventual Tory majority down here in the deep South.
Obviously the usual fields are voting UKIP/Leave.
I've been leafleting and canvassing in south London. Some people will actually mouth to you how they're voting because they don't want the neighbours to hear. As for posters, I've seen none (apart from mine which looks out over railway tracks and therefore gets lots of views) and I must have been c1500 properties. Posters have been replaced by coming out on Facebook etc. I haven't done that although clearly many people do, but they tend to be usual suspects, so I don't know what effect that has anyway. Not a lot if last GE is anything to go by.
I was camping on the South Downs over the weekend. Driving through the various, painfully picturesque villages there were a LOT of hoardings and posters. About 5:1 in favour of Leave. Lots of ABC1s around...
I'm struggling to see how Kent, Essex and Sussex won't be at least 70% Leave, but I don't think any polls show this.
The only English counties which will vote Remain are Oxfordshire, Berkshire and Buckinghamshire.
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
I hope you are right but we'd need to beat France in the quarters if we even get there!
Can I just say that, in my patch of the north-west, I'm still yet to see a SINGLE "Remain" poster.
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
Posters are a terrible predictor of electoral outcomes. Winning 'ere diamonds are usually as plentiful as the corresponding eventual Tory majority down here in the deep South.
Obviously the usual fields are voting UKIP/Leave.
I've been leafleting and canvassing in south London. Some people will actually mouth to you how they're voting because they don't want the neighbours to hear. As for posters, I've seen none (apart from mine which looks out over railway tracks and therefore gets lots of views) and I must have been c1500 properties. Posters have been replaced by coming out on Facebook etc. I haven't done that although clearly many people do, but they tend to be usual suspects, so I don't know what effect that has anyway. Not a lot if last GE is anything to go by.
I was camping on the South Downs over the weekend. Driving through the various, painfully picturesque villages there were a LOT of hoardings and posters. About 5:1 in favour of Leave. Lots of ABC1s around...
I'm struggling to see how Kent, Essex and Sussex won't be at least 70% Leave, but I don't think any polls show this.
The only English counties which will vote Remain are Oxfordshire, Berkshire and Buckinghamshire.
I'm not actually sure that any English county will vote Remain...
Can I just say that, in my patch of the north-west, I'm still yet to see a SINGLE "Remain" poster.
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
Posters are a terrible predictor of electoral outcomes. Winning 'ere diamonds are usually as plentiful as the corresponding eventual Tory majority down here in the deep South.
Obviously the usual fields are voting UKIP/Leave.
I've been leafleting and canvassing in south London. Some people will actually mouth to you how they're voting because they don't want the neighbours to hear. As for posters, I've seen none (apart from mine which looks out over railway tracks and therefore gets lots of views) and I must have been c1500 properties. Posters have been replaced by coming out on Facebook etc. I haven't done that although clearly many people do, but they tend to be usual suspects, so I don't know what effect that has anyway. Not a lot if last GE is anything to go by.
I was camping on the South Downs over the weekend. Driving through the various, painfully picturesque villages there were a LOT of hoardings and posters. About 5:1 in favour of Leave. Lots of ABC1s around...
The ABC1s in the South Downs are mainly over 70 and read the Telegraph.....
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
England have Jordan Henderson in their squad and they let him play in games.
That pretty much sums them up.
I really don't understand why anyone every plays Henderson. He is a decent Championship player at best. But he has to have some dirty pics of senior people at the FA. No other explanation.
None of Henderson, Wilshire or Lallana are good enough, I'm afraid.
Our central midfield is so bad we might as well go 4-4-2 with Vardy and Kane up top, Dier and Rooney in the middle and Sterling and Townsend on each wing. Townsend not even picked for the squad though, so that'd be difficult.
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
I hope you are right but we'd need to beat France in the quarters if we even get there!
Vote Leave to annoy the French and get us to the semis....?
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
England have Jordan Henderson in their squad and they let him play in games.
That pretty much sums them up.
Interesting selection indeed. Not the world's most accurate....
I don't understand what Henderson offers. He isn't a great defensive mid, he's not strong, he doesn't tackle well, his heading is questionable. His passing isn't the best, its reasonable but not great. His attacking is awful, he scores 4 goals a season for Liverpool. That's bloody terrible.
But somehow he is a stalwart of the England team and has 26 caps. How the hell can Henderson have 26 caps for a country with 56 million people and some great midfielders.
Compare Henderson to Bale, Ramsey and Allen. It's just comical.
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
I'd be tempted to play Rash.
Kane has looked nowhere near his best.
Sturridge failed to repeat his Wales performance today, too. I'd prefer Rashford to him. Vardy to Sterling and Kane to Rooney
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
England have Jordan Henderson in their squad and they let him play in games.
That pretty much sums them up.
Interesting selection indeed. Not the world's most accurate....
I don't understand what Henderson offers.
1. He's "a great lad". 2. Turns up to training on time.
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
I hope you are right but we'd need to beat France in the quarters if we even get there!
Vote Leave to annoy the French and get us to the semis....?
Can I just say that, in my patch of the north-west, I'm still yet to see a SINGLE "Remain" poster.
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
Posters are a terrible predictor of electoral outcomes. Winning 'ere diamonds are usually as plentiful as the corresponding eventual Tory majority down here in the deep South.
Obviously the usual fields are voting UKIP/Leave.
I've been leafleting and canvassing in south London. Some people will actually mouth to you how they're voting because they don't want the neighbours to hear. As for posters, I've seen none (apart from mine which looks out over railway tracks and therefore gets lots of views) and I must have been c1500 properties. Posters have been replaced by coming out on Facebook etc. I haven't done that although clearly many people do, but they tend to be usual suspects, so I don't know what effect that has anyway. Not a lot if last GE is anything to go by.
I was camping on the South Downs over the weekend. Driving through the various, painfully picturesque villages there were a LOT of hoardings and posters. About 5:1 in favour of Leave. Lots of ABC1s around...
I'm struggling to see how Kent, Essex and Sussex won't be at least 70% Leave, but I don't think any polls show this.
The only English counties which will vote Remain are Oxfordshire, Berkshire and Buckinghamshire.
I'm not actually sure that any English county will vote Remain...
If Oxfordshire doesn't vote Remain then Leave have surely won.
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
England have Jordan Henderson in their squad and they let him play in games.
That pretty much sums them up.
I really don't understand why anyone every plays Henderson. He is a decent Championship player at best. But he has to have some dirty pics of senior people at the FA. No other explanation.
None of Henderson, Wilshire or Lallana are good enough, I'm afraid.
Our central midfield is so bad we might as well go 4-4-2 with Vardy and Kane up top, Dier and Rooney in the middle and Sterling and Townsend on each wing. Townsend not even picked for the squad though, so that'd be difficult.
Lallana, I think, is good enough for England. Wilshire is still a question mark.
But Henderson is the Ben Swift of English football. WTF is his point?
Kane's an old-skool striker in the Shearer mode. Give him a through-ball to run onto with his front to goal and he will score goals. Ditto Vardy.
Sadly, he's playing in some muddled 4-3-3 system neither clear to us nor, it seems, the players. A stiker's only as good as his service and the service has been, ahem , appalling.
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
I hope you are right but we'd need to beat France in the quarters if we even get there!
Vote Leave to annoy the French and get us to the semis....?
No. Just vote leave to annoy the French!
I have my suspicions that the brits could annoy the French just as much by staying as by leaving :-)
Can I just say that, in my patch of the north-west, I'm still yet to see a SINGLE "Remain" poster.
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
Posters are a terrible predictor of electoral outcomes. Winning 'ere diamonds are usually as plentiful as the corresponding eventual Tory majority down here in the deep South.
Obviously the usual fields are voting UKIP/Leave.
I've been leafleting and canvassing in south London. Some people will actually mouth to you how they're voting because they don't want the neighbours to hear. As for posters, I've seen none (apart from mine which looks out over railway tracks and therefore gets lots of views) and I must have been c1500 properties. Posters have been replaced by coming out on Facebook etc. I haven't done that although clearly many people do, but they tend to be usual suspects, so I don't know what effect that has anyway. Not a lot if last GE is anything to go by.
I was camping on the South Downs over the weekend. Driving through the various, painfully picturesque villages there were a LOT of hoardings and posters. About 5:1 in favour of Leave. Lots of ABC1s around...
I'm struggling to see how Kent, Essex and Sussex won't be at least 70% Leave, but I don't think any polls show this.
The only English counties which will vote Remain are Oxfordshire, Berkshire and Buckinghamshire.
I'm not actually sure that any English county will vote Remain...
If Oxfordshire doesn't vote Remain then Leave have surely won.
Comments
Big news to me though is Curtice saying Leave's chances are 40-45%.
Whatever it is very very close.
If we believe that it is going to come down to the wire then Glastonbury has the potential to swing the referendum ~0.3% towards Leave because I suspect that it will be very easy for attendees to not to bother to vote (most of whom are young and highly educated).
Secondly, and much more importantly, the postal votes went out at peak leave, if Leave had ~ a 6% lead (53-47) then on the day remain may need 51-49 to get a score draw.
Still, I am sure you can be Executive Director of the Office of David and Samantha Cameron, parcelling out the grants in due course.
The important difference is phone polls tend to have difficulty sampling those of working age, particularly older workers who are the largest voting block.
Also the Scottish anecdotes from Alistair - hmm.
Goodnight!
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
Natcen looks consistent with national averages..
Obviously the usual fields are voting UKIP/Leave.
We can all find reasons be they work colleagues, friends, family members or tarot card readings as to whether it will be Remain or Leave.
But this is a betting site and the odds seem to be out of kilter with reality-therefore there are opportunities
To that end-can someone recommend the best site for odds on the areas with highest / lowest leave / remain support?
Thank you in advance.
It sounds an ideal project for the Eu? It would be expensive and vainglorious. And it would last -- what 5 years or 10 years -- before erosion through acidic rain water destroyed it.
The weakness of phone polls is a differential reluctance to pick up the phone when called. The worst for not doing this are professionals, who are likely to vote Remain. Of course the polling companies will weight their samples accordingly but there was research done showing different EURef results depending on whether the poll was run during weekdays and weekends.
@faisalislam: Nissan takes @vote_leave to High Court to "prevent them making any further false statements/misrepresentations" https://t.co/7fV10NxwdN
Corals are 60/1
I am on
http://www.natcen.ac.uk/media/1216024/natcen-eu-referendum-report-200616.pdf
Key statistically relevant factors:
Education
Age
Geography
DYOR!
https://electionsetc.com/
Basically people are less convinced of economic woe versus Brexit than they are immigration being cut after Brexit, which is similar to what happened in the general election with the mismatch between the "headline" voting intention numbers and the economic and personal ratings Vis and vis Cameron and Miliband.
Food for thought anyway...
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/745020076450013184
Lucid Talk NI EU Ref Poll (NI Only) Remain 52% Leave 38% - a 4% swing to leave from it's last poll.
https://www.crowdpac.co.uk/downloads/in_or_out_crowdpac_poll_results_-_june_2016.pdf
I've been leafleting and canvassing for 3 months in South East London, but have only seen homemade Leave posters or Daily Express cutouts in that time.
They reminded me of watching Leicester play, with a narro back 4 pushing attackers out wide. Conceeding corners and crosses because they can deal with them. If only they could score goals too.
Edit, actually Russia did too. Time for bed!
[pic of immigrants storming a port in France]
That pretty much sums them up.
I really don't understand why anyone every plays Henderson. He is a decent Championship player at best. But he has to have some dirty pics of senior people at the FA. No other explanation.
Elliott is seriously, seriously good.
I have cancelled recording Top Gear on my dvr, and this evening will be the first time in years that I have not recorded it.
I await the real thing on Amazon Prime. I have my 1gig optical fiber internet, stocks of popcorn, blank dvds for my dvd recorder, and I'm ready.
The only English counties which will vote Remain are Oxfordshire, Berkshire and Buckinghamshire.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/20/donald-trump-assassination-attempt-las-vegas-rally
Our central midfield is so bad we might as well go 4-4-2 with Vardy and Kane up top, Dier and Rooney in the middle and Sterling and Townsend on each wing. Townsend not even picked for the squad though, so that'd be difficult.
Kane has looked nowhere near his best.
But somehow he is a stalwart of the England team and has 26 caps. How the hell can Henderson have 26 caps for a country with 56 million people and some great midfielders.
Compare Henderson to Bale, Ramsey and Allen. It's just comical.
But Henderson is the Ben Swift of English football. WTF is his point?
You can say something that turns out to be untrue, whilst believing it to be true which is not a lye, but a mistake of fact.
If you say something you know to be false, that is a lye (technically even if you turn out to be correct)
So the test isn't whether you know you are lying but whether you believe what you say is false.
Sadly, he's playing in some muddled 4-3-3 system neither clear to us nor, it seems, the players. A stiker's only as good as his service and the service has been, ahem , appalling.
And on that bombshell, good night!