The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
I hope you are right but we'd need to beat France in the quarters if we even get there!
Vote Leave to annoy the French and get us to the semis....?
No. Just vote leave to annoy the French!
I have my suspicions that the brits could annoy the French just as much by staying as by leaving :-)
Well there is that. Whole point of joining in the first place as I understand it.
Perhaps the big question is whether Scotland will do better in England's Tennis championships or England will do better in France's Euro football championships.
At least Scotland has already won England's Tennis championships.
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
I hope you are right but we'd need to beat France in the quarters if we even get there!
Vote Leave to annoy the French and get us to the semis....?
No. Just vote leave to annoy the French!
I have my suspicions that the brits could annoy the French just as much by staying as by leaving :-)
Well there is that. Whole point of joining in the first place as I understand it.
After we vote to Remain, the 20s could be the decade of the Anglo-German tandem.
Can I just say that, in my patch of the north-west, I'm still yet to see a SINGLE "Remain" poster.
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
Posters are a terrible predictor of electoral outcomes. Winning 'ere diamonds are usually as plentiful as the corresponding eventual Tory majority down here in the deep South.
Obviously the usual fields are voting UKIP/Leave.
I've been leafleting and canvassing in south London. Some people will actually mouth to you how they're voting because they don't want the neighbours to hear. As for posters, I've seen none (apart from mine which looks out over railway tracks and therefore gets lots of views) and I must have been c1500 properties. Posters have been replaced by coming out on Facebook etc. I haven't done that although clearly many people do, but they tend to be usual suspects, so I don't know what effect that has anyway. Not a lot if last GE is anything to go by.
I am in South London and am currently toying with whether to put up my vote remain poster - I know at least one neighbour that I would seriously annoy. Am I a shy remainer?
Have you considered moving North of the River
You will have no problem with a Vote Remain poster - regrettably if you put up a Vote Leave poster you are quite likely to get a brick thrown through your window.
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
Kane's an old-skool striker in the Shearer mode. Give him a through-ball to run onto with his front to goal and he will score goals. Ditto Vardy.
Sadly, he's playing in some muddled 4-3-3 system neither clear to us nor, it seems, the players. A stiker's only as good as his service and the service has been, ahem , appalling.
That's exactly right. It might be worth trying Barkley because the centre-mids are not getting much through. That said, Alli has shown the odd sign. I'd probably go with him for the next game.
Can't see the sense in Henderson - his distribution is largely shite.
Can I just say that, in my patch of the north-west, I'm still yet to see a SINGLE "Remain" poster.
I've not really seen THAT many "Leave" posters either, mind, but I've seen a smattering, and a few people wandering round with "Leave" badges and T-shirts.
Posters are a terrible predictor of electoral outcomes. Winning 'ere diamonds are usually as plentiful as the corresponding eventual Tory majority down here in the deep South.
Obviously the usual fields are voting UKIP/Leave.
I've been leafleting and canvassing in south London. Some people will actually mouth to you how they're voting because they don't want the neighbours to hear. As for posters, I've seen none (apart from mine which looks out over railway tracks and therefore gets lots of views) and I must have been c1500 properties. Posters have been replaced by coming out on Facebook etc. I haven't done that although clearly many people do, but they tend to be usual suspects, so I don't know what effect that has anyway. Not a lot if last GE is anything to go by.
I am in South London and am currently toying with whether to put up my vote remain poster - I know at least one neighbour that I would seriously annoy. Am I a shy remainer?
Have you considered moving North of the River
You will have no problem with a Vote Remain poster - regrettably if you put up a Vote Leave poster you are quite likely to get a brick thrown through your window.
I thought London was meant to be the most tolerant place in the UK, nay, all the planet?
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
England have Jordan Henderson in their squad and they let him play in games.
That pretty much sums them up.
I really don't understand why anyone every plays Henderson. He is a decent Championship player at best. But he has to have some dirty pics of senior people at the FA. No other explanation.
None of Henderson, Wilshire or Lallana are good enough, I'm afraid.
Our central midfield is so bad we might as well go 4-4-2 with Vardy and Kane up top, Dier and Rooney in the middle and Sterling and Townsend on each wing. Townsend not even picked for the squad though, so that'd be difficult.
Lallana, I think, is good enough for England. Wilshire is still a question mark.
But Henderson is the Ben Swift of English football. WTF is his point?
I like Lallana but he just cannot score. He gets in great positions but never bloody scores!
He had lived in California for over a year and attempted to seize the gun of a policeman from its holster, hardly the JFK assassination!
Why advertise "I am an idiot"?
Several killings of police in the US have occurred in exactly this way. And then it's only another step and a lucky shot to Trump.
It's a very serious incident if a killer gets to be in the same room as the candidate.
A killing of a policeman you are right next to is not quite the same as attempting to grab a gun from a policeman and then nobody noticing for ten minutes until the candidate arrives himself surrounded by secret servicemen. This was a spotty teenager who obviously had done no real planning and was not even armed, there may be serious threats to Trump but this was not one!
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
I hope you are right but we'd need to beat France in the quarters if we even get there!
Vote Leave to annoy the French and get us to the semis....?
No. Just vote leave to annoy the French!
I have my suspicions that the brits could annoy the French just as much by staying as by leaving :-)
Well there is that. Whole point of joining in the first place as I understand it.
After we vote to Remain, the 20s could be the decade of the Anglo-German tandem.
The problem is that we got nothing from the Anglo German tandem thus far... and it has to be noted that a change of party in Germany to the left changes all that.
A passing thought on the way to bed: in Finland, I believe they announce the count as the votes come in, so if we had the same system we would *know* what the postal vote was showing. The idea is to give people the chance to assess how things are going before deciding whether to reinforce or brake the trend.
A passing thought on the way to bed: in Finland, I believe they announce the count as the votes come in, so if we had the same system we would *know* what the postal vote was showing. The idea is to give people the chance to assess how things are going before deciding whether to reinforce or brake the trend.
Might that be a good idea here too?
No, I think people should be encouraged to vote for what they believe in, not because of how other people are voting.
O/T but I am really bad at spelling even simple words I have to look up, does anyone know how I can improve this. I try to spell it out but it seems I can't place silent or half silent letters. I've always been bad at communication but better at science.
He had lived in California for over a year and attempted to seize the gun of a policeman from its holster, hardly the JFK assassination!
Why advertise "I am an idiot"?
Several killings of police in the US have occurred in exactly this way. And then it's only another step and a lucky shot to Trump.
It's a very serious incident if a killer gets to be in the same room as the candidate.
A killing of a policeman you are right next to is not quite the same as attempting to grab a gun from a policeman and then nobody noticing for ten minutes until the candidate arrives himself surrounded by secret servicemen. This was a spotty teenager who obviously had done no real planning and was not even armed, there may be serious threats to Trump but this was not one!
'The Brit told the Secret Service “if he were on the street tomorrow, he would try this again”.
When asked what he would have done had he not made an attempt on Trump’s life he said he had bought ticket a for Trump rally in Phoenix, Arizona, where he would try again.'
He had lived in California for over a year and attempted to seize the gun of a policeman from its holster, hardly the JFK assassination!
Why advertise "I am an idiot"?
Several killings of police in the US have occurred in exactly this way. And then it's only another step and a lucky shot to Trump.
It's a very serious incident if a killer gets to be in the same room as the candidate.
A killing of a policeman you are right next to is not quite the same as attempting to grab a gun from a policeman and then nobody noticing for ten minutes until the candidate arrives himself surrounded by secret servicemen. This was a spotty teenager who obviously had done no real planning and was not even armed, there may be serious threats to Trump but this was not one!
'The Brit told the Secret Service “if he were on the street tomorrow, he would try this again”.
When asked what he would have done had he not made an attempt on Trump’s life he said he had bought ticket a for Trump rally in Phoenix, Arizona, where he would try again.'
A very dangerous and determined assassin. Not something to joke about.
Have you seen the pictures of him? He looks like Kevin the teenager and he was not armed. If Trump aides think he is a very dangerous assassin heaven help them if a real dangerous and determined assassin got near him, if this guy can get into his rallies anyone can!
O/T but I am really bad at spelling even simple words I have to look up, does anyone know how I can improve this. I try to spell it out but it seems I can't place silent or half silent letters. I've always been bad at communication but better at science.
I am not an expert but sounds like Dyslexia. One technique is to learn words as a whole rather than build them up. There are plenty of websites dealing with the problem - just make sure they are reputable.
Kane's an old-skool striker in the Shearer mode. Give him a through-ball to run onto with his front to goal and he will score goals. Ditto Vardy.
Sadly, he's playing in some muddled 4-3-3 system neither clear to us nor, it seems, the players. A stiker's only as good as his service and the service has been, ahem , appalling.
That's exactly right. It might be worth trying Barkley because the centre-mids are not getting much through. That said, Alli has shown the odd sign. I'd probably go with him for the next game.
Can't see the sense in Henderson - his distribution is largely shite.
We have great strikers with no creative midfielders, Henderson/Wiltshire/Dier is the midfield to play Spain/Germany not blooming Slovakia. Lallana is by far our most creative player, Sturridge is looking sharp. Vardy is a impact sub to hit teams on the break. Alli and Rooney back for next game with Kane/Sturridge/Lallana ahead of them imho
"[Michael Sandford] told the [Secret Service] agent he had driven across [...] America [...]"
"The report said Sandford had 'targeted Officer Jacobs because he believed he saw the officer’s holster in an unlocked position.'"
"'Sandford reason it would be the easiest way to acquire a gun to shoot Trump.'"
If he drove across the US, why didn't he just go to a car boot fair and buy a secondhand gun and some ammunition in a state where anybody can do that without showing any ID?
He had lived in California for over a year and attempted to seize the gun of a policeman from its holster, hardly the JFK assassination!
Why advertise "I am an idiot"?
Several killings of police in the US have occurred in exactly this way. And then it's only another step and a lucky shot to Trump.
It's a very serious incident if a killer gets to be in the same room as the candidate.
A killing of a policeman you are right next to is not quite the same as attempting to grab a gun from a policeman and then nobody noticing for ten minutes until the candidate arrives himself surrounded by secret servicemen. This was a spotty teenager who obviously had done no real planning and was not even armed, there may be serious threats to Trump but this was not one!
'The Brit told the Secret Service “if he were on the street tomorrow, he would try this again”.
When asked what he would have done had he not made an attempt on Trump’s life he said he had bought ticket a for Trump rally in Phoenix, Arizona, where he would try again.'
A very dangerous and determined assassin. Not something to joke about.
Have you seen the pictures of him? He looks like Kevin the teenager and he was not armed. If Trump aides think he is a very dangerous assassin heaven help them if a real dangerous and determined assassin got near him, if this guy can get into his rallies anyone can!
Have you seen a picture of Oswald? Hinckley? Fromme? Moore?
It's not 'Trump aides' but the Feds, who have him arrested and arraigned.
"More broadly, however, the poll is liable to be influenced in the unfortunate event of another tragedy—be it a death, a catastrophic refugee incident, or a terror attack."
I've never seen a newspaper or journal say anything like that before.
"[Michael Sandford] told the [Secret Service] agent he had driven across [...] America [...]"
"The report said Sandford had 'targeted Officer Jacobs because he believed he saw the officer’s holster in an unlocked position.'"
"'Sandford reason it would be the easiest way to acquire a gun to shoot Trump.'"
If he drove across the US, why didn't he just go to a car boot fair and buy a secondhand gun and some ammunition in a state where anybody can do that without showing any ID?
He's a [crazed] foreigner, so maybe didn't know that.
Plus, I understand all entrants to rallies are checked/metal-detected...
"[Michael Sandford] told the [Secret Service] agent he had driven across [...] America [...]"
"The report said Sandford had 'targeted Officer Jacobs because he believed he saw the officer’s holster in an unlocked position.'"
"'Sandford reason it would be the easiest way to acquire a gun to shoot Trump.'"
If he drove across the US, why didn't he just go to a car boot fair and buy a secondhand gun and some ammunition in a state where anybody can do that without showing any ID?
"[Michael Sandford] told the [Secret Service] agent he had driven across [...] America [...]"
"The report said Sandford had 'targeted Officer Jacobs because he believed he saw the officer’s holster in an unlocked position.'"
"'Sandford reason it would be the easiest way to acquire a gun to shoot Trump.'"
If he drove across the US, why didn't he just go to a car boot fair and buy a secondhand gun and some ammunition in a state where anybody can do that without showing any ID?
Interesting, however, that this 19-year old British 'kid' is driving a 328i BMW right across the States to kill Trump.
Got to be a very interesting story there, somewhere...
'When Sandford appeared in court yesterday, it emerged he had been living in his car while on an expired Visa.
Prosecutors said the suspect also suffered from a form of autism. ... The justice found Sandford a danger to the community and a flight risk.
Assistant US Attorney Jared Grimmer argued for Sandford to remain on remand arguing he was unemployed and living in the States illegally with no ties to Las Vegas.
Mr Grimmer also said Sandford may have some “mental health issues.“'
19-years old, unemployed, "mental health issues", autism.
Leading on the BBC website now: Civil servants told David Cameron in 2012 that it was "impossible" for the government to meet its flagship immigration pledge, the PM's former director of strategy has claimed.
Steve Hilton said Mr Cameron was told "explicitly and directly" that EU free movement rules meant net migration could not be reduced below 100,000.
The target featured in the Tories' election manifesto last year.
A Downing Street spokesman said: "We simply do not recognise this story."
The spokesman questioned why Mr Hilton - who is backing a Leave vote - had chosen to make his comments for the first time days before Thursday's referendum.
Get in there Stevo!! Absolutely love that final sentence from the spokesman - wonder if it was intended as a rhetorical question. It's because, contrary to past political performance, for once Hilton is not being a mug.
This is the proper way to get attention back to immigration at the tail-end of the campaign - beats Nazi posters at any rate.
Hilton did a nice turn on the radio about a month ago explaining why he was coming out for Leave. Sadly, he spoiled the performance at the end of the piece by saying some surprisingly supportive things about Trump, how he isn't as extreme as UK media make him out to be (probably true in some ways, relative to some policies of some of his Republican rivals) and refusing to condemn him. I got the impression Hilton's political antennae were permanently switched off - definitely not the way to go about gaining trust with the British electorate, when the "Big Society" thing he is best-known for was one of the Coalition's biggest flops. I wondered why he had dropped out of the news so completely when, for all his faults, he did seem to have more brainpower than most of the rest of the Leavers. This intervention, though, looks like it might be pretty effective. Will have to see whether the news bulletins make anything of it.
My husband left me for another woman three months ago and ever since then my life have been filled with pains, sorrow and heart break because he was my first love whom i have spent my entire life with. A friend of mine told me he saw some testimonies of a spell caster called Dr Zuma of (spiritualherbalisthealing@gmail.com) that he can bring back lover within some few days, i laugh it out and said i am not interested but because of the love my friend had for me, she consulted the great priest on my behalf and to my greatest surprise after 2 days my husband called me for the very first time after three months that he is missing me and that he is so sorry for everything he made me went through.He came back to me and now we are happy together. I still can’t believe it, because it highly unbelievable. Thank you Dr Zuma for bringing back my lover and also to my lovely friend who interceded on my behalf, for anyone who might need the help of this great priest here is his email address: spiritualherbalisthealing@gmail.com or call him on: +2349055637784.
My husband left me for another woman three months ago and ever since then my life have been filled with pains, sorrow and heart break because he was my first love whom i have spent my entire life with. A friend of mine told me he saw some testimonies of a spell caster called Dr Zuma of (spiritualherbalisthealing@gmail.com) that he can bring back lover within some few days, i laugh it out and said i am not interested but because of the love my friend had for me, she consulted the great priest on my behalf and to my greatest surprise after 2 days my husband called me for the very first time after three months that he is missing me and that he is so sorry for everything he made me went through.He came back to me and now we are happy together. I still can’t believe it, because it highly unbelievable. Thank you Dr Zuma for bringing back my lover and also to my lovely friend who interceded on my behalf, for anyone who might need the help of this great priest here is his email address: spiritualherbalisthealing@gmail.com or call him on: +2349055637784.
My husband left me for another woman three months ago and ever since then my life have been filled with pains, sorrow and heart break because he was my first love whom i have spent my entire life with. A friend of mine told me he saw some testimonies of a spell caster called Dr Zuma of (spiritualherbalisthealing@gmail.com) that he can bring back lover within some few days, i laugh it out and said i am not interested but because of the love my friend had for me, she consulted the great priest on my behalf and to my greatest surprise after 2 days my husband called me for the very first time after three months that he is missing me and that he is so sorry for everything he made me went through.He came back to me and now we are happy together. I still can’t believe it, because it highly unbelievable. Thank you Dr Zuma for bringing back my lover and also to my lovely friend who interceded on my behalf, for anyone who might need the help of this great priest here is his email address: spiritualherbalisthealing@gmail.com or call him on: +2349055637784.
I wonder if Dr Zuma's first name is Monty...........
My husband left me for another woman three months ago and ever since then my life have been filled with pains, sorrow and heart break because he was my first love whom i have spent my entire life with. A friend of mine told me he saw some testimonies of a spell caster called Dr Zuma of (spiritualherbalisthealing@gmail.com) that he can bring back lover within some few days, i laugh it out and said i am not interested but because of the love my friend had for me, she consulted the great priest on my behalf and to my greatest surprise after 2 days my husband called me for the very first time after three months that he is missing me and that he is so sorry for everything he made me went through.He came back to me and now we are happy together. I still can’t believe it, because it highly unbelievable. Thank you Dr Zuma for bringing back my lover and also to my lovely friend who interceded on my behalf, for anyone who might need the help of this great priest here is his email address: spiritualherbalisthealing@gmail.com or call him on: +2349055637784.
Now there's a first.
IS that the S.African president Zuma d'ye reckon?
Doubtful. He would surely be asking for a $10,000 deposit to release the $647 million fortune of my long-lost relative Bokassa from his Swiss Bank account...
I've called Dr Zuma and asked him to bring back the poll leads for Leave to give comfort to the majority on here. He said he'll sort it, but I can't believe it because it's highly unbelievable.
I've called Dr Zuma and asked him to bring back the poll leads for Leave to give comfort to the majority on here. He said he'll sort it, but I can't believe it because it's highly unbelievable.
I've called Dr Zuma and asked him to bring back the poll leads for Leave to give comfort to the majority on here. He said he'll sort it, but I can't believe it because it's highly unbelievable.
maybe he can reunite cameron and the British public?
I've called Dr Zuma and asked him to bring back the poll leads for Leave to give comfort to the majority on here. He said he'll sort it, but I can't believe it because it's highly unbelievable.
Thanks pal.
You do that voodoo that you do so well...
Did you hear about the psephologist from Warsaw who moved to Haiti?
"[Michael Sandford] told the [Secret Service] agent he had driven across [...] America [...]"
"The report said Sandford had 'targeted Officer Jacobs because he believed he saw the officer’s holster in an unlocked position.'"
"'Sandford reason it would be the easiest way to acquire a gun to shoot Trump.'"
If he drove across the US, why didn't he just go to a car boot fair and buy a secondhand gun and some ammunition in a state where anybody can do that without showing any ID?
He's a [crazed] foreigner, so maybe didn't know that.
Plus, I understand all entrants to rallies are checked/metal-detected...
In some states there's a general freedom to sell secondhand guns without checking or recording the buyer's identity, let alone checking his background. People talk about the "gun show loophole", but in some states the private sale doesn't have to be at a gun show or rally or by a licensed dealer. If a person has got a gun, they can sell it whoever they like, so long as they haven't got reason to believe, blah blah - but the proviso is practically a dead letter when there's no obligation to check or even to record the buyer's name. One online place is Armslist.
Stock markets around the world and the British pound rose sharply after polls tilted toward a U.K. vote to remain in the European Union, swings that portend further volatility in the days ahead.
I haven't been as swayed by some of his recent pieces, but I'm board with Janan Ganesh on the inevitability of this referendum in the face if some criticising why we're having it. He does seem less confident of a remain win though.
My husband left me for another woman three months ago and ever since then my life have been filled with pains, sorrow and heart break because he was my first love whom i have spent my entire life with. A friend of mine told me he saw some testimonies of a spell caster called Dr Zuma of (email) that he can bring back lover within some few days, i laugh it out and said i am not interested but because of the love my friend had for me, she consulted the great priest on my behalf and to my greatest surprise after 2 days my husband called me for the very first time after three months that he is missing me and that he is so sorry for everything he made me went through.He came back to me and now we are happy together. I still can’t believe it, because it highly unbelievable. Thank you Dr Zuma for bringing back my lover and also to my lovely friend who interceded on my behalf, for anyone who might need the help of this great priest here is his email address:.
What are you going to do when the other woman pays Dr Zuma to bring him back to her? Some kind of curse, am I right? Then this whole thing's going to escalate and you're going to end up bleeding to death from oversized sewing needle wounds. Get over him and get another guy, there are plenty more fish in the sea.
The actual performance tonight wasn't too bad at all tonight except for not being able to hit a barn door with a banjo, but the biggest problem is that we've chopped and changed throughout the group stages whereas we should have a proper first XI worked out by now.
My gut reaction was that we have about 16 players capable of starting. I wasn't unhappy with tonight - after seeing how reactive we could be in the Wales match, I'd expect us to get to semis now.
I hope you are right but we'd need to beat France in the quarters if we even get there!
Vote Leave to annoy the French and get us to the semis....?
No. Just vote leave to annoy the French!
I have my suspicions that the brits could annoy the French just as much by staying as by leaving :-)
Well there is that. Whole point of joining in the first place as I understand it.
After we vote to Remain, the 20s could be the decade of the Anglo-German tandem.
I haven't been as swayed by some of his recent pieces, but I'm board with Janan Ganesh on the inevitability of this referendum in the face if some criticising why we're having it. He does seem less confident of a remain win though.
Yes, the Cameron haters would have criticized him if he hadn't had a referendum, hadn't made pledges in immigration and so forth - though the latter as framed was foolish. As to the result - who knows? But Ganesh makes a great point about the "median voter".
Stock markets around the world and the British pound rose sharply after polls tilted toward a U.K. vote to remain in the European Union, swings that portend further volatility in the days ahead.
The WSJ knows that stock markets around the world and the British pound rose sharply. What the WSJ does not know is why they rose. It is mere speculation that the polls had anything to do with it.
Stock markets around the world and the British pound rose sharply after polls tilted toward a U.K. vote to remain in the European Union, swings that portend further volatility in the days ahead.
I don't get why people would be shy leavers in polls? OK, in real life I certainly understand keeping political views hidden (that works for both leave and remain however), but why on a poll?
I'm not sure it can be compared with the shy tory effect either. we often hear that leavers are more passionate than remain. We have witnessed before the understating of the tory vote, but rarely the understating of the UKIP vote. Passionate supporters aren't shy. Tories have previously had a shy vote from middle class types who don't particularly involve themselves with politics generally but reliably vote tory come election time. it seems to me like the winning coalition for Leave would be a majority UKIP, large minority labour working class, so not seeing a history of shy voters there.
I doubt the polls are showing a significant shy effect to either remain or leave.
A phone conversation is a surprisingly intimate thing (no sniggering at the back)
I've been polled by MORI a couple of times on the phone and I've definitely been on my guard about what I say and admit to.
For a start when a stranger rings you up there is lingering doubt that they are who they say they are, especially with the number of scammers or spammers. For all you know it is the local chapter of SJWs pretending to be the opinion pollter
Stock markets around the world and the British pound rose sharply after polls tilted toward a U.K. vote to remain in the European Union, swings that portend further volatility in the days ahead.
I've called Dr Zuma and asked him to bring back the poll leads for Leave to give comfort to the majority on here. He said he'll sort it, but I can't believe it because it's highly unbelievable.
I wouldn't believe anything Dr Zuma says. Few South Africans do anymore
i thought the oRB poll is 53-47% remain- why is the table showing 51-49% to remain?
Isn't the former filtered on 'certain to vote' and the latter is all voters?
There is something peculiar about that certain to vote and the associated stunning increase in remainers certain to vote. Not the change, but the scale of the change. (after all the whole poll was of only 800 out of 46 million who get to vote and we are talking about a subsample of that 800)
Will Mike's thread this morning lead on his mentor, Prof. Curtice, stating that Leave has a 40% - 45% chance of winning? Way, way more than the betting markets which put Leave's chances at only around 25%, i.e. 3/1. One or other is calling this very wrong! Political Betting at its most intriguing and potentially most profitable.
I don't get why people would be shy leavers in polls? OK, in real life I certainly understand keeping political views hidden (that works for both leave and remain however), but why on a poll?
I'm not sure it can be compared with the shy tory effect either. we often hear that leavers are more passionate than remain. We have witnessed before the understating of the tory vote, but rarely the understating of the UKIP vote. Passionate supporters aren't shy. Tories have previously had a shy vote from middle class types who don't particularly involve themselves with politics generally but reliably vote tory come election time. it seems to me like the winning coalition for Leave would be a majority UKIP, large minority labour working class, so not seeing a history of shy voters there.
I doubt the polls are showing a significant shy effect to either remain or leave.
A phone conversation is a surprisingly intimate thing (no sniggering at the back)
I've been polled by MORI a couple of times on the phone and I've definitely been on my guard about what I say and admit to.
For a start when a stranger rings you up there is lingering doubt that they are who they say they are, especially with the number of scammers or spammers. For all you know it is the local chapter of SJWs pretending to be the opinion pollter
During the Troubles, polls tended to underestimate support for DUP and Sinn Fein and overestimate Alliance. It was surmised that one reason was that people answering the phone didn't know if the caller was a cunning loyalist or Republican terrorist, so opted to play safe.
I don't get why people would be shy leavers in polls? OK, in real life I certainly understand keeping political views hidden (that works for both leave and remain however), but why on a poll?
I'm not sure it can be compared with the shy tory effect either. we often hear that leavers are more passionate than remain. We have witnessed before the understating of the tory vote, but rarely the understating of the UKIP vote. Passionate supporters aren't shy. Tories have previously had a shy vote from middle class types who don't particularly involve themselves with politics generally but reliably vote tory come election time. it seems to me like the winning coalition for Leave would be a majority UKIP, large minority labour working class, so not seeing a history of shy voters there.
I doubt the polls are showing a significant shy effect to either remain or leave.
A phone conversation is a surprisingly intimate thing (no sniggering at the back)
I've been polled by MORI a couple of times on the phone and I've definitely been on my guard about what I say and admit to.
For a start when a stranger rings you up there is lingering doubt that they are who they say they are, especially with the number of scammers or spammers. For all you know it is the local chapter of SJWs pretending to be the opinion pollter
During the Troubles, polls tended to underestimate support for DUP and Sinn Fein and overestimate Alliance. It was surmised that one reason was that people answering the phone didn't know if the caller was a cunning loyalist or Republican terrorist, so opted to play safe.
I've always thought that as regards polling, people are more likely to tell the truth to a machine, as opposed to a real person. Btw, why is so much more prominence being given to last night's ORB poll, over the one from YouGov?
Higher percentage of remainers than leavers to vote, come off it. Something is wrong there.
I am calling it the effect of the murder of the MP and the realisation of the tactics used by LEAVE. I expect more swingback to remain. People will do as they did in 1992.. hold their nose and vote for the known rather than the unknown.
I don't get why people would be shy leavers in polls? OK, in real life I certainly understand keeping political views hidden (that works for both leave and remain however), but why on a poll?
I'm not sure it can be compared with the shy tory effect either. we often hear that leavers are more passionate than remain. We have witnessed before the understating of the tory vote, but rarely the understating of the UKIP vote. Passionate supporters aren't shy. Tories have previously had a shy vote from middle class types who don't particularly involve themselves with politics generally but reliably vote tory come election time. it seems to me like the winning coalition for Leave would be a majority UKIP, large minority labour working class, so not seeing a history of shy voters there.
I doubt the polls are showing a significant shy effect to either remain or leave.
A phone conversation is a surprisingly intimate thing (no sniggering at the back)
I've been polled by MORI a couple of times on the phone and I've definitely been on my guard about what I say and admit to.
For a start when a stranger rings you up there is lingering doubt that they are who they say they are, especially with the number of scammers or spammers. For all you know it is the local chapter of SJWs pretending to be the opinion pollter
Quite it could even be something worse, someone ringing you up from leave or remain
Higher percentage of remainers than leavers to vote, come off it. Something is wrong there.
I am calling it the effect of the murder of the MP and the realisation of the tactics used by LEAVE. I expect more swingback to remain. People will do as they did in 1992.. hold their nose and vote for the known rather than the unknown.
And they'll soon regret their decision when we fall into recession and the Tories have to put up taxes.
Will Mike's thread this morning lead on his mentor, Prof. Curtice, stating that Leave has a 40% - 45% chance of winning? Way, way more than the betting markets which put Leave's chances at only around 25%, i.e. 3/1. One or other is calling this very wrong! Political Betting at its most intriguing and potentially most profitable.
It's fascinating, isn't it? The betting has been way out of line with the polling for the last month or two, with all the value on the Leave side. Really difficult to work out which is right, especially when my heart is one sided on the matter at hand. Topping up a little more at 4.1 this morning, if the polls really are neck-and-neck then those are huge odds in a two horse race.
I don't get why people would be shy leavers in polls? OK, in real life I certainly understand keeping political views hidden (that works for both leave and remain however), but why on a poll?
I'm not sure it can be compared with the shy tory effect either. we often hear that leavers are more passionate than remain. We have witnessed before the understating of the tory vote, but rarely the understating of the UKIP vote. Passionate supporters aren't shy. Tories have previously had a shy vote from middle class types who don't particularly involve themselves with politics generally but reliably vote tory come election time. it seems to me like the winning coalition for Leave would be a majority UKIP, large minority labour working class, so not seeing a history of shy voters there.
I doubt the polls are showing a significant shy effect to either remain or leave.
A phone conversation is a surprisingly intimate thing (no sniggering at the back)
I've been polled by MORI a couple of times on the phone and I've definitely been on my guard about what I say and admit to.
For a start when a stranger rings you up there is lingering doubt that they are who they say they are, especially with the number of scammers or spammers. For all you know it is the local chapter of SJWs pretending to be the opinion pollter
During the Troubles, polls tended to underestimate support for DUP and Sinn Fein and overestimate Alliance. It was surmised that one reason was that people answering the phone didn't know if the caller was a cunning loyalist or Republican terrorist, so opted to play safe.
I've always thought that as regards polling, people are more likely to tell the truth to a machine, as opposed to a real person. Btw, why is so much more prominence being given to last night's ORB poll, over the one from YouGov?
Because it fits the narrative of remain being strong.
He had lived in California for over a year and attempted to seize the gun of a policeman from its holster, hardly the JFK assassination!
Why advertise "I am an idiot"?
Several killings of police in the US have occurred in exactly this way. And then it's only another step and a lucky shot to Trump.
It's a very serious incident if a killer gets to be in the same room as the candidate.
A killing of a policeman you are right next to is not quite the same as attempting to grab a gun from a policeman and then nobody noticing for ten minutes until the candidate arrives himself surrounded by secret servicemen. This was a spotty teenager who obviously had done no real planning and was not even armed, there may be serious threats to Trump but this was not one!
'The Brit told the Secret Service “if he were on the street tomorrow, he would try this again”.
When asked what he would have done had he not made an attempt on Trump’s life he said he had bought ticket a for Trump rally in Phoenix, Arizona, where he would try again.'
Stock markets around the world and the British pound rose sharply after polls tilted toward a U.K. vote to remain in the European Union, swings that portend further volatility in the days ahead.
The WSJ knows that stock markets around the world and the British pound rose sharply. What the WSJ does not know is why they rose. It is mere speculation that the polls had anything to do with it.
Well, they talk to the people doing the buying and selling...
I don't get why people would be shy leavers in polls? OK, in real life I certainly understand keeping political views hidden (that works for both leave and remain however), but why on a poll?
I'm not sure it can be compared with the shy tory effect either. we often hear that leavers are more passionate than remain. We have witnessed before the understating of the tory vote, but rarely the understating of the UKIP vote. Passionate supporters aren't shy. Tories have previously had a shy vote from middle class types who don't particularly involve themselves with politics generally but reliably vote tory come election time. it seems to me like the winning coalition for Leave would be a majority UKIP, large minority labour working class, so not seeing a history of shy voters there.
I doubt the polls are showing a significant shy effect to either remain or leave.
A phone conversation is a surprisingly intimate thing (no sniggering at the back)
I've been polled by MORI a couple of times on the phone and I've definitely been on my guard about what I say and admit to.
For a start when a stranger rings you up there is lingering doubt that they are who they say they are, especially with the number of scammers or spammers. For all you know it is the local chapter of SJWs pretending to be the opinion pollter
During the Troubles, polls tended to underestimate support for DUP and Sinn Fein and overestimate Alliance. It was surmised that one reason was that people answering the phone didn't know if the caller was a cunning loyalist or Republican terrorist, so opted to play safe.
I've always thought that as regards polling, people are more likely to tell the truth to a machine, as opposed to a real person. Btw, why is so much more prominence being given to last night's ORB poll, over the one from YouGov?
Very interesting that the Telegraph are leading with the ORB poll, alongside their editorial backing Leave. Maybe part of the Leave GOTV operation.
Higher percentage of remainers than leavers to vote, come off it. Something is wrong there.
I think this move is plausible, for the centre and left it's turning into more of a for/against Farage and right-wingery in general deal, whereas before it looked like an internal Tory family feud.
Will Mike's thread this morning lead on his mentor, Prof. Curtice, stating that Leave has a 40% - 45% chance of winning? Way, way more than the betting markets which put Leave's chances at only around 25%, i.e. 3/1. One or other is calling this very wrong! Political Betting at its most intriguing and potentially most profitable.
It's fascinating, isn't it? The betting has been way out of line with the polling for the last month or two, with all the value on the Leave side. Really difficult to work out which is right, especially when my heart is one sided on the matter at hand. Topping up a little more at 4.1 this morning, if the polls really are neck-and-neck then those are huge odds in a two horse race.
At the risk of flogging a dead horse, don't forget to adjust for the different values of the betting token depending on who wins. 25% on Betfair does not mean Leave is value if the real probability is over 25%.
I don't get why people would be shy leavers in polls? OK, in real life I certainly understand keeping political views hidden (that works for both leave and remain however), but why on a poll?
I'm not sure it can be compared with the shy tory effect either. we often hear that leavers are more passionate than remain. We have witnessed before the understating of the tory vote, but rarely the understating of the UKIP vote. Passionate supporters aren't shy. Tories have previously had a shy vote from middle class types who don't particularly involve themselves with politics generally but reliably vote tory come election time. it seems to me like the winning coalition for Leave would be a majority UKIP, large minority labour working class, so not seeing a history of shy voters there.
I doubt the polls are showing a significant shy effect to either remain or leave.
A phone conversation is a surprisingly intimate thing (no sniggering at the back)
I've been polled by MORI a couple of times on the phone and I've definitely been on my guard about what I say and admit to.
For a start when a stranger rings you up there is lingering doubt that they are who they say they are, especially with the number of scammers or spammers. For all you know it is the local chapter of SJWs pretending to be the opinion pollter
During the Troubles, polls tended to underestimate support for DUP and Sinn Fein and overestimate Alliance. It was surmised that one reason was that people answering the phone didn't know if the caller was a cunning loyalist or Republican terrorist, so opted to play safe.
I've always thought that as regards polling, people are more likely to tell the truth to a machine, as opposed to a real person. Btw, why is so much more prominence being given to last night's ORB poll, over the one from YouGov?
Because it fits the narrative of remain beingo strong.
Yep.
Looks to me like half a dozen leavers lied and said they are voting Remain but still said defo voting.
The narrative that remain will just win suits me. Students wont bother to get out of bed and leavers will be keen not to let the side down.
Higher percentage of remainers than leavers to vote, come off it. Something is wrong there.
I think this move is plausible, for the centre and left it's turning into more of a for/against Farage and right-wingery in general deal, whereas before it looked like an internal Tory family feud.
How come there is not the slightest hint of it in the Yougov online poll which is more than twice the size of ORB and more recent (leave crossed over and took the lead in this poll).
I'm beginning to think that the reason for this odd telephone/online effect is because with online the person being polled made the initial contact so knows who they are dealing with whereas on phone a stranger contacts them out of the blue so they are far more guarded.
This is supposedly a betting site, I posted a couple of weeks ago that with the exception of a handful very few on here have the foggiest understanding of betting. In the chart at the top Leave are ahead in 9 of 16 polls yet can be backed at 3/1. I've no idea what the outcome will be but anybody backing Remain at around 1/4 is a guesser.
They may well collect but backing 1/4 shots on the toss of a coin is the road to certain ruin.
Remain are a similar price to Germany beating N.Ireland tonight.
A point on this Curtice chap and 40/45%, does he think that is what Leave will get in terms of % votes or does he think that is the probability of Leave winning? Plenty don't understand the difference, perhaps he doesn't.
This is supposedly a betting site, I posted a couple of weeks ago that with the exception of a handful very few on here have the foggiest understanding of betting. In the chart at the top Leave are ahead in 9 of 16 polls yet can be backed at 3/1. I've no idea what the outcome will be but anybody backing Remain at around 1/4 is a guesser.
They may well collect but backing 1/4 shots on the toss of a coin is the road to certain ruin.
A point on this Curtice chap and 40/45%, does he think that is what Leave will get in terms of % votes or does he think that is the probability of Leave winning? Plenty don't understand the difference, perhaps he doesn't.
I've been selling Remain vote share at 53.5 on Spreadex. Even if the narrow last for Remain is right, I'll make money. If it's a Leave win, I'll make a lot of money.
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Another idea came to me. How about the four PM's who started, deepened then secured our European destiny, Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron carved into the White Cliffs of Dover in homage to Mount Rushmore ? With Cameron slightly prominent and a strong chin ?
Eventually they would just crumble away and fall into the sea.
Comments
At least Scotland has already won England's Tennis championships.
Several killings of police in the US have occurred in exactly this way. And then it's only another step and a lucky shot to Trump.
It's a very serious incident if a killer gets to be in the same room as the candidate.
Can't see the sense in Henderson - his distribution is largely shite.
1,632 responses from 16th May till 12th June - big period for the size of sample. Don't think it really tells us anything.
Might that be a good idea here too?
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/events?email_address=&address_change[submitted_address]=London&commit=Search&address_change[distance]=10
When asked what he would have done had he not made an attempt on Trump’s life he said he had bought ticket a for Trump rally in Phoenix, Arizona, where he would try again.'
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/donald-trump-assassination-attempt-man-8241971
A very dangerous and determined assassin. Not something to joke about.
Lallana is by far our most creative player, Sturridge is looking sharp. Vardy is a impact sub to hit teams on the break.
Alli and Rooney back for next game with Kane/Sturridge/Lallana ahead of them imho
Madness.
"[Michael Sandford] told the [Secret Service] agent he had driven across [...] America [...]"
"The report said Sandford had 'targeted Officer Jacobs because he believed he saw the officer’s holster in an unlocked position.'"
"'Sandford reason it would be the easiest way to acquire a gun to shoot Trump.'"
If he drove across the US, why didn't he just go to a car boot fair and buy a secondhand gun and some ammunition in a state where anybody can do that without showing any ID?
It's not 'Trump aides' but the Feds, who have him arrested and arraigned.
Stop digging, you blert...
Meanwhile, here is Newsweek:
"More broadly, however, the poll is liable to be influenced in the unfortunate event of another tragedy—be it a death, a catastrophic refugee incident, or a terror attack."
I've never seen a newspaper or journal say anything like that before.
Plus, I understand all entrants to rallies are checked/metal-detected...
Got to be a very interesting story there, somewhere...
Sharpe said so far 66% of all the money staked on the EU referendum has been placed on remain, but 69% of all individual bets placed are for leave.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/20/eu-referendum-biggest-political-betting-event-in-british-history
Prosecutors said the suspect also suffered from a form of autism.
...
The justice found Sandford a danger to the community and a flight risk.
Assistant US Attorney Jared Grimmer argued for Sandford to remain on remand arguing he was unemployed and living in the States illegally with no ties to Las Vegas.
Mr Grimmer also said Sandford may have some “mental health issues.“'
19-years old, unemployed, "mental health issues", autism.
But driving a BMW from coast-to-coast.
O................Kay...........
Civil servants told David Cameron in 2012 that it was "impossible" for the government to meet its flagship immigration pledge, the PM's former director of strategy has claimed.
Steve Hilton said Mr Cameron was told "explicitly and directly" that EU free movement rules meant net migration could not be reduced below 100,000.
The target featured in the Tories' election manifesto last year.
A Downing Street spokesman said: "We simply do not recognise this story."
The spokesman questioned why Mr Hilton - who is backing a Leave vote - had chosen to make his comments for the first time days before Thursday's referendum.
Get in there Stevo!! Absolutely love that final sentence from the spokesman - wonder if it was intended as a rhetorical question. It's because, contrary to past political performance, for once Hilton is not being a mug.
This is the proper way to get attention back to immigration at the tail-end of the campaign - beats Nazi posters at any rate.
Hilton did a nice turn on the radio about a month ago explaining why he was coming out for Leave. Sadly, he spoiled the performance at the end of the piece by saying some surprisingly supportive things about Trump, how he isn't as extreme as UK media make him out to be (probably true in some ways, relative to some policies of some of his Republican rivals) and refusing to condemn him. I got the impression Hilton's political antennae were permanently switched off - definitely not the way to go about gaining trust with the British electorate, when the "Big Society" thing he is best-known for was one of the Coalition's biggest flops. I wondered why he had dropped out of the news so completely when, for all his faults, he did seem to have more brainpower than most of the rest of the Leavers. This intervention, though, looks like it might be pretty effective. Will have to see whether the news bulletins make anything of it.
You do that voodoo that you do so well...
He became a Voodoo Pole!
http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2016-06-20/bristol-north-west-mp-chooses-brexit/
http://www.wsj.com/articles/tiny-tilt-in-brexit-polls-roils-global-markets-1466454718?mod=e2tw
But what does the WSJ know......
http://app.ft.com/cms/s/1d324da4-36cd-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/comment/feed//product&siteedition=uk
Not sure you've thought this one through...
Higher percentage of remainers than leavers to vote, come off it. Something is wrong there.
Way, way more than the betting markets which put Leave's chances at only around 25%, i.e. 3/1.
One or other is calling this very wrong!
Political Betting at its most intriguing and potentially most profitable.
Btw, why is so much more prominence being given to last night's ORB poll, over the one from YouGov?
Topping up a little more at 4.1 this morning, if the polls really are neck-and-neck then those are huge odds in a two horse race.
Maybe part of the Leave GOTV operation.
Looks to me like half a dozen leavers lied and said they are voting Remain but still said defo voting.
The narrative that remain will just win suits me. Students wont bother to get out of bed and leavers will be keen not to let the side down.
But isnt the real status quo Britain remaining as a self governing sovereign nation, which favours Leave?
I'm beginning to think that the reason for this odd telephone/online effect is because with online the person being polled made the initial contact so knows who they are dealing with whereas on phone a stranger contacts them out of the blue so they are far more guarded.
They may well collect but backing 1/4 shots on the toss of a coin is the road to certain ruin.
Remain are a similar price to Germany beating N.Ireland tonight.
A point on this Curtice chap and 40/45%, does he think that is what Leave will get in terms of % votes or does he think that is the probability of Leave winning? Plenty don't understand the difference, perhaps he doesn't.