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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s polls have it neck and neck

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    @RichardTyndall - for me the Norway option is by far the best Brexit outcome. I'd just be very surprised if most Leavers felt the same way, given that it means ongoing contributions and continued high levels of immigration.

    The thing is I really am a democrat (unlike Tyson by his own confession). And I look at the numbers and realise that if Leave win then we are looking at probably at least 70% of the voters (Remain plus nearly half of Leave) who would go for the Norway option. That is Democracy. It is the same thing that got us the referendum in the first place and hopefully will win it for us.

    We don't just turn around to the 45% plus who voted for Remain and say "sorry you don't get a say anymore". They get to help choose what comes next as well.

    Fair enough. As I say, the Norway option works for me. In practice, though, I still can't see it being feasible, given the prominence Leave have given to significantly reducing immigration and ending our contribution to the EU budget. As ever, though, when it comes to Brexit I very much hope to be wrong.

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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    Just been reading the reports on the Marseille violence. The French papers are saying it was their local hooligans and Russian hoologans who basically just rushed into the designated England fan areas and started punching and stabbing people at random. The French are saying the English fans are not to blame and only retaliated because the police just stood by and did nothing while people were getting stabbed and having their heads kicked in by Russians. The current theory is thatthe French and Russian hooligans co-ordinated these attacks on forums and social media and they intended to target ordinary fans rather than other hooligans.
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    HYUFD said:

    To counter John Cleese's announcement he is backing Leave, Tracey Emin has come out for Remain and even created a new 'Vote In' design
    https://twitter.com/TraceyEmin/status/740188006519349249

    Must have taken all of 10 seconds.
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    @RichardTyndall - for me the Norway option is by far the best Brexit outcome. I'd just be very surprised if most Leavers felt the same way, given that it means ongoing contributions and continued high levels of immigration.

    The problem with Brexit is you let that populist, nationalist genie out of the bottle. The likes of Richard Tyndall think they are in control of it, but they aren't.

    There are some fucking serious headbangers on this site...Plato, Watford, Casino, Sean Fear...people who couldn't compromise in a lifetime. They appear reasonable, but they aren't.They are ideologically driven nutters who couldn't care less if the UK goes to shyte provided their version of dark politics prevails.....

    And then there are other posters, many other posters, who are seemingly attracted by this Brexit, nihilistic nonsense...... in the last few days Cameron needs to appeal to these
    You're starting to talk like an EU official. Britain has never embraced political radicalism and it won't now I suspect - even in a world that is heading that way. We are an island which helps keep tensions to a minimum - people are grumpy not about to put on the jackboots. And we are an ageing society.

    But Frank, you are playing with fire. Post Brexit there will be a an economic shock. The immigrants that Brexit Britain doesn't like...black and Muslim....they won't go away. And with an economic shock, we are in a much worse position to protect vital public services....the NHS. And global capital will invest outside the UK...so the UK will diminish further, and our public services will diminish further. We'll have inflation, and falling employment and investment. And who'll be to blame in this culture of lowest common politics?

    I wish project fear was sufficiently fearful.
    You still haven't told us whether the Polish, Irish, and French fans fighting, clearly, tonight, bring shame on their host countries and expose the horror of nationalism and mean they should exit Europe, leaving, um, Luxembourg?
    Sean- I think you have kind of laid yourself open to this one. Those nihilistic fuckwits, whether Polish, Italian, or whatever will all be nihilistic Brexiters, or Itexiters, or Irlexiters. The politics of division, hatred and despair are just all too easy to galvanise people who are stupid,mean, poorly educated, racist, spiteful. Populism works. Tried and tested, over and over again.

    But, and I am not manipulating you (maybe a bit) I know you are vacillating. In this world there are some horrible mean people, people who dive to the bottom because they are mean spirited....in their DNA....as much as you bluster I don't think you are one.
    Many words no sign of an answer
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Danny565 said:

    I see Cameron is now threatening to cut the NHS and pensions if we Brexit:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/11/brexit-axe-state-pensions-david-cameron-nhs-cold-reality

    Maybe it's just me, but "do as I say, or I'll be an even bigger bastard" does not seem like a very well thought through strategy. I don't know many marriages which have been saved in the long-term by the husband threatening the wife with dire financial consequences if she leaves him.

    That is not what Cameron is saying, but he is suggesting that a sudden shock to the UK economy on the back of an EU exit could put current levels of funding of the NHS and pensions at risk!! And by the way, I don't know many divorcing couples who can claim that they were able to carry on dealing with each other on a day to day basis as if the divorce had never even happened!
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    PAW said:

    SouthamObserver - if you have a business plan that depends on paying uncompetitive wages - you aren't in business.

    I agree. But £10 an hour is way above the minimum wage.

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Lowlander said:

    tyson said:

    @RichardTyndall - for me the Norway option is by far the best Brexit outcome. I'd just be very surprised if most Leavers felt the same way, given that it means ongoing contributions and continued high levels of immigration.

    The problem with Brexit is you let that populist, nationalist genie out of the bottle. The likes of Richard Tyndall think they are in control of it, but they aren't.

    There are some fucking serious headbangers on this site...Plato, Watford, Casino, Sean Fear...people who couldn't compromise in a lifetime. They appear reasonable, but they aren't.They are ideologically driven nutters who couldn't care less if the UK goes to shyte provided their version of dark politics prevails.....

    And then there are other posters, many other posters, who are seemingly attracted by this Brexit, nihilistic nonsense...... in the last few days Cameron needs to appeal to these
    You make it sound like populism and nationalism (which to me seems to be code for racism and xenophobia) went away. They didn't. The Liberal project only succeeded in removing the debate from the public sphere.

    But that debate never actually ended. It just wasn't on the BBC and much of the mainstream media. The underlying prejudices and fears lingered within people and the Liberal project never took a moment to address those prejudices and fears.
    I cannot agree with you more on this. But what do you do? How long can you spend trying to persuade people who are set in their own, narrow views.

    BTW I am not a democrat. I really do believe that anyone who is sufficiently racist, narrow minded, thick, simplistic, stupid, ill educated and ill informed (BTW Brexit...those are the people who support you)....they should be disenfranchised.......
    Yep. No wonder you support the EU with an attitude like that. Basically anyone you disagree with should not be allowed to vote. Next you'll be suggesting they should be transported East or just gassed.

    You are one F*cked Up loser.
    I am a strange sort of fucked up loser. I am entirely self made, and haven't worked for many years (and still entrenched in my forties).
    Attitude. There are plenty of people who have made it financially but are stilled fucked up losers. I believe the term for them is sociopaths and you seem like a classic.

    I am hoping that your moronic outburst about disenfranchising people you don't agree with is just booze talking. If not you do seriously need to take a look in the mirror because you have no place in normal society with that sort of attitude.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,106
    edited June 2016

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    tyson said:

    @RichardTyndall - for me the Norway option is by far the best Brexit outcome. I'd just be very surprised if most Leavers felt the same way, given that it means ongoing contributions and continued high levels of immigration.

    The problem with Brexit is you let that populist, nationalist genie out of the bottle. The likes of Richard Tyndall think they are in control of it, but they aren't.

    There are some fucking serious headbangers on this site...Plato, Watford, Casino, Sean Fear...people who couldn't compromise in a lifetime. They appear reasonable, but they aren't.They are ideologically driven nutters who couldn't care less if the UK goes to shyte provided their version of dark politics prevails.....

    And then there are other posters, many other posters, who are seemingly attracted by this Brexit, nihilistic nonsense...... in the last few days Cameron needs to appeal to these
    The problem I, as I would hope not a nutter, have with such predictions, is if the nation is in such a state that Brexit would unleash such hell, then counter intuitively we have bigger problems than Brexit and it hardly matters which option we pick!

    Turks might visit the UK without visas. They're coming for us. The Turks. Yes, if that's how the conversation is going we clearly have huge problems.
    In which case what is the solution? The problem, as ever, appears to be not that we have the wrong sort of system or government (though this may also be so), but the wrong sort of people.

    The Turks don't bother me, but it does most people it seems, and clearly the EU knows it. If is it? What good is a system if it is utterly convinced of its own goodness but unable to communicate that convincingly to its people?

    Though in fairness despite rising skepticism it is still mostly us who are not convinced. At present. Less incompetence and arrogance and the EU would not be in this mess now, as people like me, who don't care about immigration and can get on board with some form of dream of a united europe, would not have switched.

    The assumption is these million or so Turks - among the wealthiest in their country - will visit us visa free and give up everything they have at home to break our laws and live here illegally. For no other reason than they are Turks. It's racism, I'm afraid. We either pander to it or we don't.

    Just because people believe that and are wrong does not mean they are wrong to be conhe people you don't want to pander to will think the same things and demand action.

    You should be free to think whatever you think and to act accordingly, so long as you do it peacefully. I'll call out racism when I see it (though I am not accusing you of that in any way, shape or form).

    By all means call it out. But we have a problem if the majority are swayed by a racist argument, a problem not solved if the vote is for Remain or Brexit.

    Good night.

    The atmosphere is getting poisonous again - I would urge Remainers in particular to have some thick skin in the next few weeks, outnumbered (on here) as they are. I am sure it will diminish once people calm the f*ck down.

    Echo chambers are no fun.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,228

    HYUFD said:

    To counter John Cleese's announcement he is backing Leave, Tracey Emin has come out for Remain and even created a new 'Vote In' design
    https://twitter.com/TraceyEmin/status/740188006519349249

    I now need no further arguments to make me vote leave.
    Yes I doubt that will win many converts outside of Brighton
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    HYUFD said:

    To counter John Cleese's announcement he is backing Leave, Tracey Emin has come out for Remain and even created a new 'Vote In' design
    https://twitter.com/TraceyEmin/status/740188006519349249

    Poor handwriting is now classed as design? We really are in decline.
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:

    It is built on a fatally flawed foundation, a conceit that it is possible to subsume more than two dozen distinct nations into one political entity.

    This just comes back to the British aversion to federalism combined with a lack of vision about the EU. The addition of a common European layer of political institutions does not mean that the core expression of democratic politics will cease to be at the national level. We are not building an exact copy of the USA, but something unique that will allow us to make our continent work better and be less prone to conflict.
    I think you're right. The British are averse to federalism, which is why we agreed to join an economic community rather than a political one. Now we have a chance to review that decision in the light of the last 30+ years of increasing federalism and come to a decision about whether we share the vision of our neighbours. Although there's much to criticise Cameron for at the moment we should at least be grateful for the opportunity to express our democratic will - regardless of the outcome.
    This site doesn't have a "like" function, but that's how I want to respond to this comment. Spot on.
    Thanks. I think there is a cultural dimension here as well. My German colleagues genuinely can't understand 'sovereignty' as a concept. They start from an assumption that pooled control represents strength and that independence is necessarily weak, which is not how we understand history in this country.
    In a way it's surprising that Germany's post WW2 guilt was never channelled into a movement to undo the original German unification. Perhaps if the Soviets hadn't been in control of the East it would have done (and the Western powers might have been minded to enforce such a solution).
    The goal of the Allies post WW2 was DePrussification. Reverting to a pre-1871 Germany would have required there to be a re-established Prussian State. The Federal Republic and Bundes Republic both worked very hard to eliminate Prussia from the map.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    Danny565 said:

    @RichardTyndall - for me the Norway option is by far the best Brexit outcome. I'd just be very surprised if most Leavers felt the same way, given that it means ongoing contributions and continued high levels of immigration.

    The thing is I really am a democrat (unlike Tyson by his own confession). And I look at the numbers and realise that if Leave win then we are looking at probably at least 70% of the voters (Remain plus nearly half of Leave) who would go for the Norway option. That is Democracy. It is the same thing that got us the referendum in the first place and hopefully will win it for us.

    We don't just turn around to the 45% plus who voted for Remain and say "sorry you don't get a say anymore". They get to help choose what comes next as well.
    How do you work out that half of Leave voters want the Norway option? I would estimate that for around 90%+ of Leave voters, immigration is one of the main driving factors.
    There was a Yougov poll earlier this evening that said exactly that. 42% of Leave voters were amenable to the Norway option whist 45% opposed it.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    @RichardTyndall - for me the Norway option is by far the best Brexit outcome. I'd just be very surprised if most Leavers felt the same way, given that it means ongoing contributions and continued high levels of immigration.

    The thing is I really am a democrat (unlike Tyson by his own confession). And I look at the numbers and realise that if Leave win then we are looking at probably at least 70% of the voters (Remain plus nearly half of Leave) who would go for the Norway option. That is Democracy. It is the same thing that got us the referendum in the first place and hopefully will win it for us.

    We don't just turn around to the 45% plus who voted for Remain and say "sorry you don't get a say anymore". They get to help choose what comes next as well.
    How do you work out that half of Leave voters want the Norway option? I would estimate that for around 90%+ of Leave voters, immigration is one of the main driving factors.
    There was a Yougov poll earlier this evening that said exactly that. 42% of Leave voters were amenable to the Norway option whist 45% opposed it.
    Do you have a link to the poll?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,228
    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    SeanT said:

    Ireland v Poland now kicking off. No doubt Tyson will blame Brexit and English fans for this too.
    https://twitter.com/GissiSim/status/741744745211408384

    A bit of googling shows this is POSSIBLY Nice Ultras attacking Irish and Polish fans, who were happily drinking together before the match.

    Perhaps tyson would like Poland, Ireland and France thrown out of Europe, along with England.

    I wonder if French Muslim football fans have decided to sabotage the entire competition, by causing mayhem; a kind of ISIS-lite.



    yeah 'cos thats what isis think about doing, football hooliganism.
    Of course it;s not fucking ISIS. But is it a bunch of disaffected, unemployed Muslim youths thinking FUCK FRANCE and FUCK HER TOURNAMENT getting together on social media to plan disruption and cause a bit of mayhem?

    Yes, very possibly. So it's on the spectrum of anti-western violence by Islamic elements

    Anyway it's all too sad.

    Night night.

    I have seen no evidence of Muslim involvement so far, it seems Russians, French, English and Poles are involved
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    SeanT said:

    Ireland v Poland now kicking off. No doubt Tyson will blame Brexit and English fans for this too.
    https://twitter.com/GissiSim/status/741744745211408384

    A bit of googling shows this is POSSIBLY Nice Ultras attacking Irish and Polish fans, who were happily drinking together before the match.

    Perhaps tyson would like Poland, Ireland and France thrown out of Europe, along with England.

    I wonder if French Muslim football fans have decided to sabotage the entire competition, by causing mayhem; a kind of ISIS-lite.



    yeah 'cos thats what isis think about doing, football hooliganism.
    Of course it;s not fucking ISIS. But is it a bunch of disaffected, unemployed Muslim youths thinking FUCK FRANCE and FUCK HER TOURNAMENT getting together on social media to plan disruption and cause a bit of mayhem?

    Yes, very possibly. So it's on the spectrum of anti-western violence by Islamic elements

    Anyway it's all too sad.

    Night night.

    I have seen no evidence of Muslim involvement so far, it seems Russians, French, English and Poles are involved
    Yesterday some Algerians were causing trouble, but not on the scale of today.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    What a depressing start to a football tournament.

    I remember the Euros in France 1984 being quite a joyous thing.

    This... eeesh. The joy has gone out of Europe.

    Seant, try being a Scottish football fan at the start of a European football tournament where the rest of the UK all managed to qualify. Now that is fecking depressing. ;)
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,293
    Lowlander said:

    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:

    It is built on a fatally flawed foundation, a conceit that it is possible to subsume more than two dozen distinct nations into one political entity.

    This just comes back to the British aversion to federalism combined with a lack of vision about the EU. The addition of a common European layer of political institutions does not mean that the core expression of democratic politics will cease to be at the national level. We are not building an exact copy of the USA, but something unique that will allow us to make our continent work better and be less prone to conflict.
    I think you're right. The British are averse to federalism, which is why we agreed to join an economic community rather than a political one. Now we have a chance to review that decision in the light of the last 30+ years of increasing federalism and come to a decision about whether we share the vision of our neighbours. Although there's much to criticise Cameron for at the moment we should at least be grateful for the opportunity to express our democratic will - regardless of the outcome.
    This site doesn't have a "like" function, but that's how I want to respond to this comment. Spot on.
    Thanks. I think there is a cultural dimension here as well. My German colleagues genuinely can't understand 'sovereignty' as a concept. They start from an assumption that pooled control represents strength and that independence is necessarily weak, which is not how we understand history in this country.
    In a way it's surprising that Germany's post WW2 guilt was never channelled into a movement to undo the original German unification. Perhaps if the Soviets hadn't been in control of the East it would have done (and the Western powers might have been minded to enforce such a solution).
    The goal of the Allies post WW2 was DePrussification. Reverting to a pre-1871 Germany would have required there to be a re-established Prussian State. The Federal Republic and Bundes Republic both worked very hard to eliminate Prussia from the map.
    I don't see that eliminating Prussia from the map would have been incompatible with reestablishing the other former states which were not so associated with militarism.
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    @RichardTyndall - for me the Norway option is by far the best Brexit outcome. I'd just be very surprised if most Leavers felt the same way, given that it means ongoing contributions and continued high levels of immigration.

    It doesn't mean high levels of migration.

    We charge £5K PA for the NHS (above tax) and no benefits at all for a start.

    Then we could make employers using non UK staff pay extra still to fund training. Makes low skilled immigration uneconomic.

    That only makes sense if you believe that people will stop coming if they can't access the NHS or get benefits and that businesses in areas of low unemployment should be prevented from growing.

    Well, no, when the cross the border, they either have insurance or they don't cross.

    Areas of low unemployment are also generally full and have a housing shortage so if the businesses want to grow they need to find another way or location.

    Brilliant! So visas for all and the state telling businesses in London and other low unemployment areas how they should grow, or not. Thus, not the Norway option at all. Which was my original point.

    So if there are no barristas available for a new coffee shop in London at £10 per hour we have to let someone in who then can't afford rent within travel distance of work so has to be subsidised?

    That's the sort of growth we have, Is that the sort you think is desirable?

    It is also the Norway option.

    Nope, we don't have to let anyone in. We can let the business - paying well above the minimum wage - wither and die, and we can reduce competition, make coffee more expensive for everyone, reduce government tax take and provide fewer opportunities, while doing nothing to solve the issues facing the true unemployment blackspots where there are very few EU immigrants. You are not a genuine Tory who believes in free enterprise and a smaller state, are you? I thought Brexit was supposed to set business free.

    No, I am a genuine Tory, just not a 19th century Liberal.

    If the price of coffee rises because the genuine non subsidised cost of staff rises, the economy doesn't shrink.

    It does mean that employers have to look harder for employees including moving jobs to them. That is very one nation Tory.

    Got it. So if I can find a Brit to do it for £10 an hour I have a business. If I can only find a Pole I don't. Then I lose my income and my chance to grow, the government loses tax money and absolutely nobody gains. I just love this One Nation Toryism :-D

    No, I don't think you quite have it.

    If you can find a resident for £10 great, if you can't try £11. If you have to go to £15 you may have to invest to use less labour. Higher wages (in terms of silver) is what made the industrial revolution happen here and not elsewhere, where cheap labour was not in short supply.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    edited June 2016
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    @RichardTyndall - for me the Norway option is by far the best Brexit outcome. I'd just be very surprised if most Leavers felt the same way, given that it means ongoing contributions and continued high levels of immigration.

    The thing is I really am a democrat (unlike Tyson by his own confession). And I look at the numbers and realise that if Leave win then we are looking at probably at least 70% of the voters (Remain plus nearly half of Leave) who would go for the Norway option. That is Democracy. It is the same thing that got us the referendum in the first place and hopefully will win it for us.

    We don't just turn around to the 45% plus who voted for Remain and say "sorry you don't get a say anymore". They get to help choose what comes next as well.
    How do you work out that half of Leave voters want the Norway option? I would estimate that for around 90%+ of Leave voters, immigration is one of the main driving factors.
    There was a Yougov poll earlier this evening that said exactly that. 42% of Leave voters were amenable to the Norway option whist 45% opposed it.
    Do you have a link to the poll?
    It was quoted by TSE on the previous thread.

    Edit : It was from the Telegraph

    "He highlighted the 42pc of Britons who said they would vote for Brexit, and also believed that EFTA membership should be considered, against 45pc of leavers who said it should not."
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    MaxPB said:

    Just been reading the reports on the Marseille violence. The French papers are saying it was their local hooligans and Russian hoologans who basically just rushed into the designated England fan areas and started punching and stabbing people at random. The French are saying the English fans are not to blame and only retaliated because the police just stood by and did nothing while people were getting stabbed and having their heads kicked in by Russians. The current theory is thatthe French and Russian hooligans co-ordinated these attacks on forums and social media and they intended to target ordinary fans rather than other hooligans.

    It's been happening for years across Europe. Ask fans of any club that plays in the Champions League and the UEFA Cup. English fans are seen as targets. The Russians, though, are taking it to a whole new level. They will kill people.

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    sledgersledger Posts: 4
    'And there might be fun after the referendum'

    This is a massive understatement. If Remain wins I expect a semblance of order.

    If Leave wins as the pound tanks and shares fall there will be massive recriminations against those who have instigated all this. Never forget a LARGE majority of MPs are Remain. even a small majority of all Tory MPs are Remain.. And there is an iron rule in Toryland, namely ' he who wields the sceptre never wears the crown.' Boris quite clearly stabbed Cameron in the back. The party will be looking for a safe pair of hands , probably someone from the majority Remain side to sort out the chaos.

    And at some point those who voted for this will realise all they have got is endless endless endless negotiations. At this point they will turn on Boris and Gove and Gisela. I almost feel sorry for them. It will be bloody.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,106
    saddened said:

    HYUFD said:

    To counter John Cleese's announcement he is backing Leave, Tracey Emin has come out for Remain and even created a new 'Vote In' design
    https://twitter.com/TraceyEmin/status/740188006519349249

    Poor handwriting is now classed as design? We really are in decline.
    No, artists are just pretentious as all hell.

    Leave it to professional font designers.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,228
    Lowlander said:

    fitalass said:

    Lowlander said:

    There seem to be a lot of parallels between this Referendum and the General Election,

    In 2015 the underlying fundamentals said that there was a strong chance of a Tory majority which was never reflected in the polls. When you consider the fundamentals of the EU Referendum, they say that Leave has to win while the polls just don't seem to be indicating the strength of the Leave side. Comparing to the Scottish Referendum, it was generally thought there was a hardcore on either side, with about 25% for Independence no matter what and 35% for Union no matter what. in the end this was the actual difference in the result, a 10% margin for No.

    Now with the EU Referendum, there is clearly a side which will vote Leave regardless of the arguments, it could be the UKIP vote of 18% but is likely higher with some Tory and Labour voters being hardcore Leavers. But where is the comparative hardcore Remain vote? Some of the Lib Dems who currently poll 5%. Or Greens currently polling similar numbers. There just does not seem to be an identifiable and substantial number of Remain no matter what voters.

    If this is true, then Leave starts out with a huge lead, with between 20% and 30% who will always vote Leave and cannot be persuaded. This means Remain needs to get something in the region of 70% of all other voters to vote Remain or they lose. These are the underlying fundamentals of this Referendum and why I just cannot see any other result than Leave.

    "But where is the comparative hardcore Remain vote?"

    The hardcore Remain vote is very real, and it will turn up and vote in the EU Referendum. But like the Indy Ref in Scotland, it has remained largely silent on social media despite all the noise from engaged supporters of both sides of the campaign. Although we did at least mention and discuss one strong element of the hardcore No vote during the Indy Ref, the large number of very important risk averse female voters. I certainly think that as one of this group, the Remain camp would do well to carry on with appealing to them as Amber Rudd did very effectively in the last ITV debate.
    I think maybe you're not understanding what I'm saying. I understand there will be demographics which are more incline to vote Remain than Leave and your "risk averse female" is a very good example. But there are demographic groups who will also be more inclined to vote Leave such as elderly males. But both those groups can be persuaded one way or the other even if they are more inclined to vote in a specific way. That's not what I'm on about.

    What I am talking about is those core groups which exist beyond demographics. "I hate the EU" and "I hate darkies" are not demographic groups. What I want to know is where is the Remain hardcore, those who, beyond demographic probability, will vote Remain and vote Remain no matter what else happens. I don't see that group existing in any sort of number.

    As I said in my post. The end result in Scotland was that No won by almost exactly the hypothesised difference between the two core groups. 10%. The electorate which were open to consider the options split down the middle. That was good for No in Scotland which had 10pts more hardcore. Remain does not have that core group.
    I see no evidence No was more hardcore than Yes in Scotland, by the end it was Yes voters who were more hardcore but the undecideds went for No
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just been reading the reports on the Marseille violence. The French papers are saying it was their local hooligans and Russian hoologans who basically just rushed into the designated England fan areas and started punching and stabbing people at random. The French are saying the English fans are not to blame and only retaliated because the police just stood by and did nothing while people were getting stabbed and having their heads kicked in by Russians. The current theory is thatthe French and Russian hooligans co-ordinated these attacks on forums and social media and they intended to target ordinary fans rather than other hooligans.

    That's my reading, too.

    Same seems to have happened in Nice, with the Poles and Irish being randomly attacked by locals.

    Bienvenue a France.
    England fans look to be pretty much the innocent party in all of this, I wonder whether Tyson is going to take back his slur
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Lowlander said:


    What I am talking about is those core groups which exist beyond demographics. "I hate the EU" and "I hate darkies" are not demographic groups. What I want to know is where is the Remain hardcore, those who, beyond demographic probability, will vote Remain and vote Remain no matter what else happens. I don't see that group existing in any sort of number.

    Naturalised citizens who see a British passport as an asset that gives them personal freedom will not vote to give up the right to settle elsewhere in Europe, even if they don't plan to use it. The same applies to a large number of native Brits.
    Curiously I have some anecdotal evidence that you are wrong.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    fitalass said:

    Danny565 said:

    I see Cameron is now threatening to cut the NHS and pensions if we Brexit:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/11/brexit-axe-state-pensions-david-cameron-nhs-cold-reality

    Maybe it's just me, but "do as I say, or I'll be an even bigger bastard" does not seem like a very well thought through strategy. I don't know many marriages which have been saved in the long-term by the husband threatening the wife with dire financial consequences if she leaves him.

    That is not what Cameron is saying, but he is suggesting that a sudden shock to the UK economy on the back of an EU exit could put current levels of funding of the NHS and pensions at risk!! And by the way, I don't know many divorcing couples who can claim that they were able to carry on dealing with each other on a day to day basis as if the divorce had never even happened!
    I thought that After the greatLabour crash of 2008 the Tories ring fenced the NHS , inserted more billions and increased pensions. Perhaps we should have more"shocks"
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667

    MaxPB said:

    Just been reading the reports on the Marseille violence. The French papers are saying it was their local hooligans and Russian hoologans who basically just rushed into the designated England fan areas and started punching and stabbing people at random. The French are saying the English fans are not to blame and only retaliated because the police just stood by and did nothing while people were getting stabbed and having their heads kicked in by Russians. The current theory is thatthe French and Russian hooligans co-ordinated these attacks on forums and social media and they intended to target ordinary fans rather than other hooligans.

    It's been happening for years across Europe. Ask fans of any club that plays in the Champions League and the UEFA Cup. English fans are seen as targets. The Russians, though, are taking it to a whole new level. They will kill people.

    Yeah, I went to Italy for the match against Inter, it was eye-opening to see how bad it is in Europe. I go to Spurs matches all the time here and I've never seen that level of violence at any game. Chelsea and West Ham fans are scum though.
  • Options
    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    MaxPB said:

    Just been reading the reports on the Marseille violence. The French papers are saying it was their local hooligans and Russian hoologans who basically just rushed into the designated England fan areas and started punching and stabbing people at random. The French are saying the English fans are not to blame and only retaliated because the police just stood by and did nothing while people were getting stabbed and having their heads kicked in by Russians. The current theory is thatthe French and Russian hooligans co-ordinated these attacks on forums and social media and they intended to target ordinary fans rather than other hooligans.

    France and Russia collaborating to draw England/Britain into conflict?

    I'm shocked. Shocked.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    sledger said:

    'And there might be fun after the referendum'

    This is a massive understatement. If Remain wins I expect a semblance of order.

    If Leave wins as the pound tanks and shares fall there will be massive recriminations against those who have instigated all this. Never forget a LARGE majority of MPs are Remain. even a small majority of all Tory MPs are Remain.. And there is an iron rule in Toryland, namely ' he who wields the sceptre never wears the crown.' Boris quite clearly stabbed Cameron in the back. The party will be looking for a safe pair of hands , probably someone from the majority Remain side to sort out the chaos.

    And at some point those who voted for this will realise all they have got is endless endless endless negotiations. At this point they will turn on Boris and Gove and Gisela. I almost feel sorry for them. It will be bloody.

    Do tell us more of your vision.

    Will the mob will be chasing Gisela with bayonets dripping with blood through Edgbaston?

    Will Gove and Boris be disembowelled in Pall Mall ?
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2016
    I've never felt more distant from my party than I do right now:
    One Labour source said party workers and MPs felt “very emotional” about Britain leaving the EU. “We already knew we were in the fight of our lives and that it was going to be incredibly close," the source said.

    “When that poll was announced there were a lot of people in tears in the office. A lot of us are very emotional about this – more so than with a general election because this will be a one-off vote. We are only going to have one chance to get this right.”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/11/jeremy-corbyn-under-pressure-with-labour-staff-reduced-to-tears/

    What the hell is wrong with these people?? Where were the "tears" and "emotion" when welfare cuts were being voted through? How detached do they have to be from proper Labour values that staying in the EU is apparently now a bigger raison d'etre for them than fighting for the poorest?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949

    Danny565 said:

    @RichardTyndall - for me the Norway option is by far the best Brexit outcome. I'd just be very surprised if most Leavers felt the same way, given that it means ongoing contributions and continued high levels of immigration.

    The thing is I really am a democrat (unlike Tyson by his own confession). And I look at the numbers and realise that if Leave win then we are looking at probably at least 70% of the voters (Remain plus nearly half of Leave) who would go for the Norway option. That is Democracy. It is the same thing that got us the referendum in the first place and hopefully will win it for us.

    We don't just turn around to the 45% plus who voted for Remain and say "sorry you don't get a say anymore". They get to help choose what comes next as well.
    How do you work out that half of Leave voters want the Norway option? I would estimate that for around 90%+ of Leave voters, immigration is one of the main driving factors.
    There was a Yougov poll earlier this evening that said exactly that. 42% of Leave voters were amenable to the Norway option whist 45% opposed it.
    I'd be happy with the Norway model.

    My prime concern has always been loss of sovereignty. And this step really would take the Euro out of the equation for my lifetime at least.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    @RichardTyndall - for me the Norway option is by far the best Brexit outcome. I'd just be very surprised if most Leavers felt the same way, given that it means ongoing contributions and continued high levels of immigration.

    It doesn't mean high levels of migration.

    We charge £5K PA for the NHS (above tax) and no benefits at all for a start.

    Then we could make employers using non UK staff pay extra still to fund training. Makes low skilled immigration uneconomic.

    That only makes sense if you believe that people will stop coming if they can't access the NHS or get benefits and that businesses in areas of low unemployment should be prevented from growing.

    Well, no, when the cross the border, they either have insurance or they don't cross.

    Areas of low unemployment are also generally full and have a housing shortage so if the businesses want to grow they need to find another way or location.

    Brilliant! So visas for all and the state telling businesses in London and other low unemployment areas how they should grow, or not. Thus, not the Norway option at all. Which was my original point.

    So if there are no barristas available for a new coffee shop in London at £10 per hour we have to let someone in who then can't afford rent within travel distance of work so has to be subsidised?

    That's the sort of growth we have, Is that the sort you think is desirable?

    It is also the Norway option.

    Nope, we don't have to let anyone in. We can let the business - paying well above the minimum wage - wither and die, and we can reduce competition, make coffee more expensive for everyone, reduce government tax take and provide fewer opportunities, while doing nothing to solve the issues facing the true unemployment blackspots where there are very few EU immigrants. You are not a genuine Tory who believes in free enterprise and a smaller state, are you? I thought Brexit was supposed to set business free.

    No, I am a genuine Tory, just not a 19th century Liberal.

    If the price of coffee rises because the genuine non subsidised cost of staff rises, the economy doesn't shrink.

    It does mean that employers have to look harder for employees including moving jobs to them. That is very one nation Tory.

    Got it. So if I can find a Brit to do it for £10 an hour I have a business. If I can only find a Pole I don't. Then I lose my income and my chance to grow, the government loses tax money and absolutely nobody gains. I just love this One Nation Toryism :-D

    No, I don't think you quite have it.

    If you can find a resident for £10 great, if you can't try £11. If you have to go to £15 you may have to invest to use less labour. Higher wages (in terms of silver) is what made the industrial revolution happen here and not elsewhere, where cheap labour was not in short supply.

    OK - so I put someone else out of business. This is just fantastic. Your vision for the future is companies in low unemployment areas that pay well above minimum wage rates being priced out, so reducing competition and raising prices for consumers, and nothing being done in areas where high unemployment actually exists.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,228
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    SeanT said:

    Ireland v Poland now kicking off. No doubt Tyson will blame Brexit and English fans for this too.
    https://twitter.com/GissiSim/status/741744745211408384

    A bit of googling shows this is POSSIBLY Nice Ultras attacking Irish and Polish fans, who were happily drinking together before the match.

    Perhaps tyson would like Poland, Ireland and France thrown out of Europe, along with England.

    I wonder if French Muslim football fans have decided to sabotage the entire competition, by causing mayhem; a kind of ISIS-lite.



    yeah 'cos thats what isis think about doing, football hooliganism.
    Of course it;s not fucking ISIS. But is it a bunch of disaffected, unemployed Muslim youths thinking FUCK FRANCE and FUCK HER TOURNAMENT getting together on social media to plan disruption and cause a bit of mayhem?

    Yes, very possibly. So it's on the spectrum of anti-western violence by Islamic elements

    Anyway it's all too sad.

    Night night.

    I have seen no evidence of Muslim involvement so far, it seems Russians, French, English and Poles are involved
    Who do you think the local "Ultras" are in Marseille and Nice? Bourgeois white French kids?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZztxJNTGn44
    They may have been involved at the margins a little with other French youths but the violence today was not instigated or caused by Muslims, in fact if the Russians instigated it they are anything but Muslim
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    fitalass said:

    Danny565 said:

    I see Cameron is now threatening to cut the NHS and pensions if we Brexit:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/11/brexit-axe-state-pensions-david-cameron-nhs-cold-reality

    Maybe it's just me, but "do as I say, or I'll be an even bigger bastard" does not seem like a very well thought through strategy. I don't know many marriages which have been saved in the long-term by the husband threatening the wife with dire financial consequences if she leaves him.

    That is not what Cameron is saying, but he is suggesting that a sudden shock to the UK economy on the back of an EU exit could put current levels of funding of the NHS and pensions at risk!! And by the way, I don't know many divorcing couples who can claim that they were able to carry on dealing with each other on a day to day basis as if the divorce had never even happened!
    The sudden shock to the UK economy, according to the UK treasury would be the shallowest recession in the history of mankind.

    This then has to be be balanced against the very real risk of having to bailout a major Euro area collapse.

    I'll take the former risk thanks.

    As for divorcing couples dealing with each other, it's a lot more common than you think, certainly is around here.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,228
    OUT said:

    HYUFD said:

    To counter John Cleese's announcement he is backing Leave, Tracey Emin has come out for Remain and even created a new 'Vote In' design
    https://twitter.com/TraceyEmin/status/740188006519349249

    Must have taken all of 10 seconds.
    She will probably sell it for £10k
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just been reading the reports on the Marseille violence. The French papers are saying it was their local hooligans and Russian hoologans who basically just rushed into the designated England fan areas and started punching and stabbing people at random. The French are saying the English fans are not to blame and only retaliated because the police just stood by and did nothing while people were getting stabbed and having their heads kicked in by Russians. The current theory is thatthe French and Russian hooligans co-ordinated these attacks on forums and social media and they intended to target ordinary fans rather than other hooligans.

    It's been happening for years across Europe. Ask fans of any club that plays in the Champions League and the UEFA Cup. English fans are seen as targets. The Russians, though, are taking it to a whole new level. They will kill people.

    Yeah, I went to Italy for the match against Inter, it was eye-opening to see how bad it is in Europe. I go to Spurs matches all the time here and I've never seen that level of violence at any game. Chelsea and West Ham fans are scum though.
    Watch it Max. There is a whole PB cadre of West Ham fans ready to take offence. But not prisoners :-)
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    Think Andy Burnham might have to do some backtracking.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623
    MaxPB said:

    West Ham fans are scum though.

    Oh we're not all bad :)
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    PAW said:

    SouthamObserver - if you have a business plan that depends on paying uncompetitive wages - you aren't in business.

    I agree. But £10 an hour is way above the minimum wage.

    So f*cking what? The minimum wage is rubbish. You have to pay the market rate. If your business doesn't work at the market rate, get into a different line of business.

    This is what you have when you let Labour infect your mind. Suddenly the minimum wage becomes the wage. It's morally wrong because instead of lifting people up, people like you think that if you can't hire people for the minimum you can just import people who will live in a shack and work for the minimum wage.
  • Options
    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just been reading the reports on the Marseille violence. The French papers are saying it was their local hooligans and Russian hoologans who basically just rushed into the designated England fan areas and started punching and stabbing people at random. The French are saying the English fans are not to blame and only retaliated because the police just stood by and did nothing while people were getting stabbed and having their heads kicked in by Russians. The current theory is thatthe French and Russian hooligans co-ordinated these attacks on forums and social media and they intended to target ordinary fans rather than other hooligans.

    That's my reading, too.

    Same seems to have happened in Nice, with the Poles and Irish being randomly attacked by locals.

    Bienvenue a France.
    England fans look to be pretty much the innocent party in all of this, I wonder whether Tyson is going to take back his slur
    English troublemakers are safely back in England thanks to the tough measures taken after the previous episodes.
    Very few countries have the same measures for their own hooligans.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just been reading the reports on the Marseille violence. The French papers are saying it was their local hooligans and Russian hoologans who basically just rushed into the designated England fan areas and started punching and stabbing people at random. The French are saying the English fans are not to blame and only retaliated because the police just stood by and did nothing while people were getting stabbed and having their heads kicked in by Russians. The current theory is thatthe French and Russian hooligans co-ordinated these attacks on forums and social media and they intended to target ordinary fans rather than other hooligans.

    That's my reading, too.

    Same seems to have happened in Nice, with the Poles and Irish being randomly attacked by locals.

    Bienvenue a France.
    England fans look to be pretty much the innocent party in all of this, I wonder whether Tyson is going to take back his slur
    He wants them "disenfranchised" apparently.
  • Options
    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    Lowlander said:

    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:

    It is built on a fatally flawed foundation, a conceit that it is possible to subsume more than two dozen distinct nations into one political entity.

    This just comes back to the British aversion to federalism combined with a lack of vision about the EU. The addition of a common European layer of political institutions does not mean that the core expression of democratic politics will cease to be at the national level. We are not building an exact copy of the USA, but something unique that will allow us to make our continent work better and be less prone to conflict.
    I think you're right. The British are averse to federalism, which is why we agreed to join an economic community rather than a political one. Now we have a chance to review that decision in the light of the last 30+ years of increasing federalism and come to a decision about whether we share the vision of our neighbours. Although there's much to criticise Cameron for at the moment we should at least be grateful for the opportunity to express our democratic will - regardless of the outcome.
    This site doesn't have a "like" function, but that's how I want to respond to this comment. Spot on.
    Thanks. I think there is a cultural dimension here as well. My German colleagues genuinely can't understand 'sovereignty' as a concept. They start from an assumption that pooled control represents strength and that independence is necessarily weak, which is not how we understand history in this country.
    In a way it's surprising that Germany's post WW2 guilt was never channelled into a movement to undo the original German unification. Perhaps if the Soviets hadn't been in control of the East it would have done (and the Western powers might have been minded to enforce such a solution).
    The goal of the Allies post WW2 was DePrussification. Reverting to a pre-1871 Germany would have required there to be a re-established Prussian State. The Federal Republic and Bundes Republic both worked very hard to eliminate Prussia from the map.
    I don't see that eliminating Prussia from the map would have been incompatible with reestablishing the other former states which were not so associated with militarism.
    So what do you do with the substantial hole in the map where there used to be Prussia? Yes you can make up new states which is effectively what happened. But in the FDR and DDR models the population get to create a German identity. Those artificial, new states without the overall German constructs would find it difficult to think of themselves as anything but Little Prussians and the end of the Cold war would have seen Prussian unification.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    sledger said:

    'And there might be fun after the referendum'

    This is a massive understatement. If Remain wins I expect a semblance of order.

    If Leave wins as the pound tanks and shares fall there will be massive recriminations against those who have instigated all this. Never forget a LARGE majority of MPs are Remain. even a small majority of all Tory MPs are Remain.. And there is an iron rule in Toryland, namely ' he who wields the sceptre never wears the crown.' Boris quite clearly stabbed Cameron in the back. The party will be looking for a safe pair of hands , probably someone from the majority Remain side to sort out the chaos.

    And at some point those who voted for this will realise all they have got is endless endless endless negotiations. At this point they will turn on Boris and Gove and Gisela. I almost feel sorry for them. It will be bloody.

    Do tell us more of your vision.

    Will the mob will be chasing Gisela with bayonets dripping with blood through Edgbaston?

    Will Gove and Boris be disembowelled in Pall Mall ?
    I am on the point of giving up on commenting on here. Some of the things people are saying are just so ridiculous you have to wonder about how awful their life must be that they have such terrors over the prospect of Brexit.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    fitalass said:

    SeanT said:

    What a depressing start to a football tournament.

    I remember the Euros in France 1984 being quite a joyous thing.

    This... eeesh. The joy has gone out of Europe.

    Seant, try being a Scottish football fan at the start of a European football tournament where the rest of the UK all managed to qualify. Now that is fecking depressing. ;)
    You got a stoppage time goal to cheer today, I don't see the problem...
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Think Andy Burnham might have to do some backtracking.

    What's he done?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,106
    MTimT said:

    sledger said:

    'And there might be fun after the referendum'

    This is a massive understatement. If Remain wins I expect a semblance of order.

    If Leave wins as the pound tanks and shares fall there will be massive recriminations against those who have instigated all this. Never forget a LARGE majority of MPs are Remain. even a small majority of all Tory MPs are Remain.. And there is an iron rule in Toryland, namely ' he who wields the sceptre never wears the crown.' Boris quite clearly stabbed Cameron in the back. The party will be looking for a safe pair of hands , probably someone from the majority Remain side to sort out the chaos.

    And at some point those who voted for this will realise all they have got is endless endless endless negotiations. At this point they will turn on Boris and Gove and Gisela. I almost feel sorry for them. It will be bloody.

    Do tell us more of your vision.

    Will the mob will be chasing Gisela with bayonets dripping with blood through Edgbaston?

    Will Gove and Boris be disembowelled in Pall Mall ?
    I am on the point of giving up on commenting on here. Some of the things people are saying are just so ridiculous you have to wonder about how awful their life must be that they have such terrors over the prospect of Brexit.
    We're into the last 2 weeks - the madness has descended on many all over, but will surely pass.
  • Options
    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    HYUFD said:

    OUT said:

    HYUFD said:

    To counter John Cleese's announcement he is backing Leave, Tracey Emin has come out for Remain and even created a new 'Vote In' design
    https://twitter.com/TraceyEmin/status/740188006519349249

    Must have taken all of 10 seconds.
    She will probably sell it for £10k
    HYUFD said:

    OUT said:

    HYUFD said:

    To counter John Cleese's announcement he is backing Leave, Tracey Emin has come out for Remain and even created a new 'Vote In' design
    https://twitter.com/TraceyEmin/status/740188006519349249

    Must have taken all of 10 seconds.
    She will probably sell it for £10k
    Donated to refugees obviously.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2016
    Moses_ said:

    Think Andy Burnham might have to do some backtracking.

    What's he done?
    Said it was England fans' fault. He should know better regarding being quick to blame, too...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    Moses_ said:

    Think Andy Burnham might have to do some backtracking.

    What's he done?
    He has been rather vocal of how badly behaved England fans have been.
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944



    That only makes sense if you believe that people will stop coming if they can't access the NHS or get benefits and that businesses in areas of low unemployment should be prevented from growing.

    Well, no, when the cross the border, they either have insurance or they don't cross.

    Areas of low unemployment are also generally full and have a housing shortage so if the businesses want to grow they need to find another way or location.

    Brilliant! So visas for all and the state telling businesses in London and other low unemployment areas how they should grow, or not. Thus, not the Norway option at all. Which was my original point.

    So if there are no barristas available for a new coffee shop in London at £10 per hour we have to let someone in who then can't afford rent within travel distance of work so has to be subsidised?

    That's the sort of growth we have, Is that the sort you think is desirable?

    It is also the Norway option.

    Nope, we don't have to let anyone in. We can let the business - paying well above the minimum wage - wither and die, and we can reduce competition, make coffee more expensive for everyone, reduce government tax take and provide fewer opportunities, while doing nothing to solve the issues facing the true unemployment blackspots where there are very few EU immigrants. You are not a genuine Tory who believes in free enterprise and a smaller state, are you? I thought Brexit was supposed to set business free.

    No, I am a genuine Tory, just not a 19th century Liberal.

    If the price of coffee rises because the genuine non subsidised cost of staff rises, the economy doesn't shrink.

    It does mean that employers have to look harder for employees including moving jobs to them. That is very one nation Tory.

    Got it. So if I can find a Brit to do it for £10 an hour I have a business. If I can only find a Pole I don't. Then I lose my income and my chance to grow, the government loses tax money and absolutely nobody gains. I just love this One Nation Toryism :-D

    No, I don't think you quite have it.

    If you can find a resident for £10 great, if you can't try £11. If you have to go to £15 you may have to invest to use less labour. Higher wages (in terms of silver) is what made the industrial revolution happen here and not elsewhere, where cheap labour was not in short supply.

    OK - so I put someone else out of business. This is just fantastic. Your vision for the future is companies in low unemployment areas that pay well above minimum wage rates being priced out, so reducing competition and raising prices for consumers, and nothing being done in areas where high unemployment actually exists.

    You pay the market rate for the labour market in the area. It is that simple. If, like Nissan, you need 6000 people, you don't start a business in say Sussex, because you will not get the staff at a reasonable rate, you go to Northumberland.

    Simple? Get it? Not hard is it? It is also how it did work before huge influxes meant that employers didn't need to worry about nursing talent. If we leave the EU they will have to think about this.

    Also, it doesn't reduce competition for consumers because not all business owners are cretins who rely on low wages, some are imaginative and find ways of using labour wisely and so increase productivity.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,293
    Lowlander said:

    Lowlander said:

    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:

    It is built on a fatally flawed foundation, a conceit that it is possible to subsume more than two dozen distinct nations into one political entity.

    This just comes back to the British aversion to federalism combined with a lack of vision about the EU. The addition of a common European layer of political institutions does not mean that the core expression of democratic politics will cease to be at the national level. We are not building an exact copy of the USA, but something unique that will allow us to make our continent work better and be less prone to conflict.
    I think you're right. The British are averse to federalism, which is why we agreed to join an economic community rather than a political one. Now we have a chance to review that decision in the light of the last 30+ years of increasing federalism and come to a decision about whether we share the vision of our neighbours. Although there's much to criticise Cameron for at the moment we should at least be grateful for the opportunity to express our democratic will - regardless of the outcome.
    This site doesn't have a "like" function, but that's how I want to respond to this comment. Spot on.
    Thanks. I think there is a cultural dimension here as well. My German colleagues genuinely can't understand 'sovereignty' as a concept. They start from an assumption that pooled control represents strength and that independence is necessarily weak, which is not how we understand history in this country.
    In a way it's surprising that Germany's post WW2 guilt was never channelled into a movement to undo the original German unification. Perhaps if the Soviets hadn't been in control of the East it would have done (and the Western powers might have been minded to enforce such a solution).
    The goal of the Allies post WW2 was DePrussification. Reverting to a pre-1871 Germany would have required there to be a re-established Prussian State. The Federal Republic and Bundes Republic both worked very hard to eliminate Prussia from the map.
    I don't see that eliminating Prussia from the map would have been incompatible with reestablishing the other former states which were not so associated with militarism.
    So what do you do with the substantial hole in the map where there used to be Prussia? Yes you can make up new states which is effectively what happened. But in the FDR and DDR models the population get to create a German identity. Those artificial, new states without the overall German constructs would find it difficult to think of themselves as anything but Little Prussians and the end of the Cold war would have seen Prussian unification.
    Well the majority of the former Prussian state was ethnically cleansed by the Russians and effectively was wiped off the map. Even if a rump Prussian state had been left, it wouldn't have been strong enough to pull off a repeat of Bismarck's unification. If anything it would have been more likely for Austria to become the dominant German state.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    SeanT said:

    Ireland v Poland now kicking off. No doubt Tyson will blame Brexit and English fans for this too.
    https://twitter.com/GissiSim/status/741744745211408384

    A bit of googling shows this is POSSIBLY Nice Ultras attacking Irish and Polish fans, who were happily drinking together before the match.

    Perhaps tyson would like Poland, Ireland and France thrown out of Europe, along with England.

    I wonder if French Muslim football fans have decided to sabotage the entire competition, by causing mayhem; a kind of ISIS-lite.



    yeah 'cos thats what isis think about doing, football hooliganism.
    Of course it;s not fucking ISIS. But is it a bunch of disaffected, unemployed Muslim youths thinking FUCK FRANCE and FUCK HER TOURNAMENT getting together on social media to plan disruption and cause a bit of mayhem?

    Yes, very possibly. So it's on the spectrum of anti-western violence by Islamic elements

    Anyway it's all too sad.

    Night night.

    I have seen no evidence of Muslim involvement so far, it seems Russians, French, English and Poles are involved
    Who do you think the local "Ultras" are in Marseille and Nice? Bourgeois white French kids?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZztxJNTGn44
    They may have been involved at the margins a little with other French youths but the violence today was not instigated or caused by Muslims, in fact if the Russians instigated it they are anything but Muslim
    No idea of race / religion, but media at the old.port this evening are saying a gang of 200-300 locals are the ones leading the attacks on people.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    Think Andy Burnham might have to do some backtracking.

    What's he done?
    Said it was England fans' fault. He should know better regarding being quick to blame, too...
    Ahhhh. Awkward.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited June 2016

    Moses_ said:

    Think Andy Burnham might have to do some backtracking.

    What's he done?
    Said it was England fans' fault. He should know better regarding being quick to blame, too...
    Would have thought with Hillsborough and all that...and him being vocal about jumping to conclusions.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Incredible. The whistleblower has accused Cameron of deliberately misleading the public. Cameron needs to clarify exactly what is going on as much like the renegotiation he says one thing and whilst doing something very different.

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/741757827941867521
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,228
    OUT said:

    HYUFD said:

    OUT said:

    HYUFD said:

    To counter John Cleese's announcement he is backing Leave, Tracey Emin has come out for Remain and even created a new 'Vote In' design
    https://twitter.com/TraceyEmin/status/740188006519349249

    Must have taken all of 10 seconds.
    She will probably sell it for £10k
    HYUFD said:

    OUT said:

    HYUFD said:

    To counter John Cleese's announcement he is backing Leave, Tracey Emin has come out for Remain and even created a new 'Vote In' design
    https://twitter.com/TraceyEmin/status/740188006519349249

    Must have taken all of 10 seconds.
    She will probably sell it for £10k
    Donated to refugees obviously.
    Probably
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279

    TudorRose said:

    SeanT said:

    It does show how far we've come that we now treat a poll with a narrow LEAVE lead, 11 days before the vote, with a yawn and a shrug.

    If any of us had claimed, a year ago, that LEAVE would be narrowly ahead less than two weeks before the referendum, they'd have been laughed to scorn.

    A LEAVE lead is the new normal. So LEAVE are likely to win. Discuss.

    Indyref was won by the Shy No, older voters who got out on the day.

    I truly believe EURref will be won by the Shy Brexiter - its socially unacceptable in some places to say you'd vote out, but there are plenty on both left and right who are very eurosceptic. Cuts across class lines, too.
    There is another parallel - about a week before Indyref there was a poll showing a big(ish) lead for Yes which, it was argued, galvanized a lot of shy 'No's.
    If we get Indyref levels of turnout, I'd agree, but I think we'll be struggling to break 75%.

    (On another note, I drove to a meeting in Newcastle last week and saw a number of In/Out signs in gardens. I haven't seen a single one in and around Edinburgh. Just makes me wonder if Scottish turnout will be low, which doesn't help Remain)
    I would not rush to make that assumption, especially as voter registration up in Scotland is incredible healthy on the back of an Indy Ref, GE and the recent Holyrood elections.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,293
    MP_SE said:

    Incredible. The whistleblower has accused Cameron of deliberately misleading the public. Cameron needs to clarify exactly what is going on as much like the renegotiation he says one thing and whilst doing something very different.

    "We've all been working hard to get Turkey into the EU as quickly as possible."

    Without the context that 'as quickly as possible' is measured in decades that statement is deliberately misleading in itself.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,228
    edited June 2016

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    SeanT said:

    Ireland v Poland now kicking off. No doubt Tyson will blame Brexit and English fans for this too.
    https://twitter.com/GissiSim/status/741744745211408384

    A bit of googling shows this is POSSIBLY Nice Ultras attacking Irish and Polish fans, who were happily drinking together before the match.

    Perhaps tyson would like Poland, Ireland and France thrown out of Europe, along with England.

    I wonder if French Muslim football fans have decided to sabotage the entire competition, by causing mayhem; a kind of ISIS-lite.



    yeah 'cos thats what isis think about doing, football hooliganism.
    Of course it;s not fucking ISIS. But is it a bunch of disaffected, unemployed Muslim youths thinking FUCK FRANCE and FUCK HER TOURNAMENT getting together on social media to plan disruption and cause a bit of mayhem?

    Yes, very possibly. So it's on the spectrum of anti-western violence by Islamic elements

    Anyway it's all too sad.

    Night night.

    I have seen no evidence of Muslim involvement so far, it seems Russians, French, English and Poles are involved
    Who do you think the local "Ultras" are in Marseille and Nice? Bourgeois white French kids?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZztxJNTGn44
    They may have been involved at the margins a little with other French youths but the violence today was not instigated or caused by Muslims, in fact if the Russians instigated it they are anything but Muslim
    No idea of race / religion, but media at the old.port this evening are saying a gang of 200-300 locals are the ones leading the attacks on people.
    Even if that is the case and we cannot be certain who comprise them, that is the aftershocks of the violence which began in the stadium
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    Stan collymore has been running around the streets of marseille live streaming the trouble...I don't know who he is in more danger from the Russians, the French or west Brom fans!
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    GIN1138 said:
    As I've said before, the supposed Labour "moderates" are showing they are just as willing to get obsessed with fringe issues, and just as willing to ignore public opinion, as the hard left are.

    The only difference is that, where the hard left get obsessed with Trident, the "moderates" have a fetishisation for being "pro-EU" which the public does not share.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Stan collymore has been running around the streets of marseille live streaming the trouble...I don't know who he is in more danger from the Russians, the French or west Brom fans!

    Stan was always up for giving someone a slap...........
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited June 2016
    But even after the suspects were charged and appeared in court, Northumbria Police – which claims to have made sexual violence a top priority – did not announce the case to the public or press. Even the local MP only heard about it last week.

    Last night, it also emerged that the force published more than 100 incidents and public appeals, including those on sexual assaults and indecent exposures, on its website in the same month the alleged attacks took place – but not the case allegedly involving the Syrians.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3637105/Why-did-police-quiet-sex-attack-Syrian-UK-refugees-Girl-14-assaulted-gang-kept-crime-list-covered-BBC-Newsnight-team.html
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited June 2016

    Of course Boris

    Boris Johnson was embroiled in an extraordinary row last night after he admitted discussing the possibility of a leadership challenge against David Cameron with a fellow Tory MP.

    Mr Johnson, the clear favourite to be the next Tory leader, met Alec Shelbrooke in his Commons office and speculated about the number of Tory MPs prepared to back a no-confidence vote in the Prime Minister.

    According to one version of the encounter, Boris said: 'Are there 50 names?' – a reference to the number of renegade MPs required to trigger a contest.

    The former London Mayor last night confirmed that he met Mr Shelbrooke in his office and held a conversation about how many Tory MPs backed a coup – but insisted he had talked about 'how vital it was to keep the party together under Dave's leadership'.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3637035/Boris-Tory-MP-secret-talks-PM-s-fate-Yes-says-Johnson-did-discuss-MPs-backed-Cameron-coup-loyal.html

    Boris, Yer tea's oot, and its TOAST!
  • Options
    handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    Danny565 said:

    I've never felt more distant from my party than I do right now:

    One Labour source said party workers and MPs felt “very emotional” about Britain leaving the EU. “We already knew we were in the fight of our lives and that it was going to be incredibly close," the source said.

    “When that poll was announced there were a lot of people in tears in the office. A lot of us are very emotional about this – more so than with a general election because this will be a one-off vote. We are only going to have one chance to get this right.”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/11/jeremy-corbyn-under-pressure-with-labour-staff-reduced-to-tears/

    What the hell is wrong with these people?? Where were the "tears" and "emotion" when welfare cuts were being voted through? How detached do they have to be from proper Labour values that staying in the EU is apparently now a bigger raison d'etre for them than fighting for the poorest?

    Well said
  • Options
    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941


    Well the majority of the former Prussian state was ethnically cleansed by the Russians and effectively was wiped off the map. Even if a rump Prussian state had been left, it wouldn't have been strong enough to pull off a repeat of Bismarck's unification. If anything it would have been more likely for Austria to become the dominant German state.

    Only East Prussia was absorbed by Poland, Russia, Lithiania and Ukraine and in Poland there was only limited ethnic cleansing (which is why you get so many ethnic German Poles turning out for the German team). However, West Prussia is very much still there in modern Germany, it;s just not called that. Most of DDR was Prussia and a substantial portion of North and Eastern FDR. In terms of population "Prussia" within Germany would easily outrank Bavaria and Austria (and Bavaria is far more populous than Austria).

    I get what you're arguing but that was not the goal of the Allies. The Allies had no real problem with Germany. They blamed Prussia and Prussian Imperialism and the only goal they had was to obliterate Prussia (which they succeeded in, most people under 40 today would struggle to indicate where Prussia is/was on the map).
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Danny565 said:

    I've never felt more distant from my party than I do right now:

    One Labour source said party workers and MPs felt “very emotional” about Britain leaving the EU. “We already knew we were in the fight of our lives and that it was going to be incredibly close," the source said.

    “When that poll was announced there were a lot of people in tears in the office. A lot of us are very emotional about this – more so than with a general election because this will be a one-off vote. We are only going to have one chance to get this right.”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/11/jeremy-corbyn-under-pressure-with-labour-staff-reduced-to-tears/

    What the hell is wrong with these people?? Where were the "tears" and "emotion" when welfare cuts were being voted through? How detached do they have to be from proper Labour values that staying in the EU is apparently now a bigger raison d'etre for them than fighting for the poorest?
    Well said
    Excellent news:

    "Some parliamentary seats have seen canvass returns showing 70 per cent support for Leave and 30 per cent for Remain, according to the internal data."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/11/jeremy-corbyn-under-pressure-with-labour-staff-reduced-to-tears/
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,228
    edited June 2016

    Danny565 said:

    I've never felt more distant from my party than I do right now:

    One Labour source said party workers and MPs felt “very emotional” about Britain leaving the EU. “We already knew we were in the fight of our lives and that it was going to be incredibly close," the source said.

    “When that poll was announced there were a lot of people in tears in the office. A lot of us are very emotional about this – more so than with a general election because this will be a one-off vote. We are only going to have one chance to get this right.”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/11/jeremy-corbyn-under-pressure-with-labour-staff-reduced-to-tears/

    What the hell is wrong with these people?? Where were the "tears" and "emotion" when welfare cuts were being voted through? How detached do they have to be from proper Labour values that staying in the EU is apparently now a bigger raison d'etre for them than fighting for the poorest?
    Well said

    They will be largely New Labour people, Corbyn will barely give a shrug if we leave the EU
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    fitalass said:

    Of course Boris

    Boris Johnson was embroiled in an extraordinary row last night after he admitted discussing the possibility of a leadership challenge against David Cameron with a fellow Tory MP.

    Mr Johnson, the clear favourite to be the next Tory leader, met Alec Shelbrooke in his Commons office and speculated about the number of Tory MPs prepared to back a no-confidence vote in the Prime Minister.

    According to one version of the encounter, Boris said: 'Are there 50 names?' – a reference to the number of renegade MPs required to trigger a contest.

    The former London Mayor last night confirmed that he met Mr Shelbrooke in his office and held a conversation about how many Tory MPs backed a coup – but insisted he had talked about 'how vital it was to keep the party together under Dave's leadership'.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3637035/Boris-Tory-MP-secret-talks-PM-s-fate-Yes-says-Johnson-did-discuss-MPs-backed-Cameron-coup-loyal.html

    Boris, Yer tea's oot, and its TOAST!
    I thought in your neck of the woods when someone visits it was
    " hi how are you, com in .... yer would' an had yer tea?"

    :wink:
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I wonder how the secret Turkish visa scheme will go down.

    Like a bowl of cold sick I'd have thought?

    Cameron wants to let in 1m Turks while threatening Granny's pension...

    #YouDoTheMath
    Quite. Every time that Remain hope to own the news something backfires or blows up. In this case, both today,
    I don't think it's any secret that I used to like Cameron,,, I can't quite believe how badly he has screwed up with this EU stuff.
    This will be the same claims that Cameron had screwed up the Indy Ref two weeks out form the vote.... Oh wait...
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279

    fitalass said:

    SeanT said:

    What a depressing start to a football tournament.

    I remember the Euros in France 1984 being quite a joyous thing.

    This... eeesh. The joy has gone out of Europe.

    Seant, try being a Scottish football fan at the start of a European football tournament where the rest of the UK all managed to qualify. Now that is fecking depressing. ;)
    You got a stoppage time goal to cheer today, I don't see the problem...
    Ahh, but as other PBers will tell you, I have always consistently supported any other Home Nations taking part in footie tournaments where Scotland didn't make the cut. So, nothing to cheer about with that England vs Russia result. :(
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Think Andy Burnham might have to do some backtracking.

    Not exactly something new for Burnham though is it.

    At least he has had plenty of practice.
  • Options
    handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    Sorry, something went wrong with the quoting in my last comment.

    It was Danny565 who said "What the hell is wrong with these people...".

    I just agreed with him, adding "Well said".
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Danny565 said:

    I've never felt more distant from my party than I do right now:

    One Labour source said party workers and MPs felt “very emotional” about Britain leaving the EU. “We already knew we were in the fight of our lives and that it was going to be incredibly close," the source said.

    “When that poll was announced there were a lot of people in tears in the office. A lot of us are very emotional about this – more so than with a general election because this will be a one-off vote. We are only going to have one chance to get this right.”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/11/jeremy-corbyn-under-pressure-with-labour-staff-reduced-to-tears/

    What the hell is wrong with these people?? Where were the "tears" and "emotion" when welfare cuts were being voted through? How detached do they have to be from proper Labour values that staying in the EU is apparently now a bigger raison d'etre for them than fighting for the poorest?

    It seems madness is infecting all parties.

    At least Corbyn really doesn't like the EU.

    But typical politician he has to say something else at the moment.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,293
    edited June 2016
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3637151/DAN-HODGES-Incendiary-Incisive-corridors-power.html

    Dan Hodges compares Gove and Johnson with the gorilla that was shot in the US.

    This weekend David Cameron faces a similar choice: should he shoot the Brexit gorilla, or let it live and run the risk that it crushes him, his party and his country to death?

    More specifically, does he take aim at two of his closest colleagues – Boris Johnson and Michael Gove – and cut them down in full view of his stunned and horrified party?

    Cameron faces an unenviable choice. But the economic, national and security interests of the nation come before the unity of the Conservative Party. Michael Gove and Boris Johnson may be magnificent and exotic political creatures – but the time has come to shoot to kill.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    OUT said:

    Come on people Lizzie celebrated her big 90 today, let's all have a
    group hug and sing the national anthem.

    I'll be attending a Queen's birthday picnic tomorrow and my rose lemonade will taste all the sweeter for knowing all the Guardian types it'll upset.
    I'll be driving miniature steam trains carrying children!
    And Sunil :-)

    Actually, that sounds like fun.
  • Options
    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    It's always said by tories, that labour are more interested in labour than the country.
    I guess we're finding that out now.

    Half hearted campaigning by the leaders, is more or less telling their supporters
    we're not bovvered.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Rather amusing in light of tonight's revelations:

    “Focus groups have also identified two key problems for the Remain campaign. One is Boris Johnson, who is seen as a key asset for Vote Leave, and the other is the prospect of Turkey joining the EU, which has become a clear concern for voters.

    “This is why Downing Street will be keen to make an intervention that will take Turkey off the table."

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/679042/David-Cameron-PM-back-seat-brexit-surge-EU-vote-leave-remain-camp
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    OUT said:

    Come on people Lizzie celebrated her big 90 today, let's all have a
    group hug and sing the national anthem.

    I'll be attending a Queen's birthday picnic tomorrow and my rose lemonade will taste all the sweeter for knowing all the Guardian types it'll upset.
    We are having a bit of a do where I live.

    If it fecks off the Guardian we must be on right track.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,293
    MP_SE said:

    “This is why Downing Street will be keen to make an intervention that will take Turkey off the table."

    Copy France's legislation for referendums on new members over a certain size?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    GIN1138 said:

    I wonder how the secret Turkish visa scheme will go down.

    Like a bowl of cold sick I'd have thought?

    Cameron wants to let in 1m Turks while threatening Granny's pension...

    #YouDoTheMath
    :smiley:
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    kle4 said:

    perdix said:

    This site gets more like ConHome every day.

    Sanity will return on June 24th - the most uncompromising will vanish when proved wrong, leaving only the correct and the wrong who are able to accept with an amount of grace being wrong (I, for one, was pretty blunt in mocking those who thought Tories would be most seats even).
    tyson said:

    Lowlander said:

    tyson said:

    @RichardTyndall - for me the Norway option is by far the best Brexit outcome. I'd just be very surprised if most Leavers felt the same way, given that it means ongoing contributions and continued high levels of immigration.

    The problem with Brexit is you let that populist, nationalist genie out of the bottle. The likes of Richard Tyndall think they are in control of it, but they aren't.

    There are some fucking serious headbangers on this site...Plato, Watford, Casino, Sean Fear...people who couldn't compromise in a lifetime. They appear reasonable, but they aren't.They are ideologically driven nutters who couldn't care less if the UK goes to shyte provided their version of dark politics prevails.....

    And then there are other posters, many other posters, who are seemingly attracted by this Brexit, nihilistic nonsense...... in the last few days Cameron needs to appeal to these
    You make it sound like populism and nationalism (which to me seems to be code for racism and xenophobia) went away. They didn't. The Liberal project only succeeded in removing the debate from the public sphere.

    But that debate never actually ended. It just wasn't on the BBC and much of the mainstream media. The underlying prejudices and fears lingered within people and the Liberal project never took a moment to address those prejudices and fears.
    I cannot agree with you more on this. But what do you do? How long can you spend trying to persuade people who are set in their own, narrow views.

    BTW I am not a democrat. I really do believe that anyone who is sufficiently racist, narrow minded, thick, simplistic, stupid, ill educated and ill informed (BTW Brexit...those are the people who support you)....they should be disenfranchised.......
    An...er...extreme position. But honest. The problem, aside from the obvious, would be how to identify such people while ensuring the 'right' people are not caught up. All those criteria are very general and open to interpretation. You would soon find it applied to yourself.

    To quote an MP for Dorset:

    It is of dangerous consequence to make a law under general terms, and leave it to after ages to interpret your meaning

    That was in 1656. For 'make a law' read 'restrict voting rights'.
    "All those criteria are very general and open to interpretation. You would soon find it applied to yourself."

    "It is of dangerous consequence to make a law under general terms, and leave it to after ages to interpret your meaning"

    On the issue of the Named Person law in Scotland, and with 'well-being' being the guide, that just about nails the problems behind such an illiberal law.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:

    “This is why Downing Street will be keen to make an intervention that will take Turkey off the table."

    Copy France's legislation for referendums on new members over a certain size?
    I would have thought purdah would prevent that from happening.
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,925
    edited June 2016
    Floater said:

    Danny565 said:

    I've never felt more distant from my party than I do right now:

    One Labour source said party workers and MPs felt “very emotional” about Britain leaving the EU. “We already knew we were in the fight of our lives and that it was going to be incredibly close," the source said.

    “When that poll was announced there were a lot of people in tears in the office. A lot of us are very emotional about this – more so than with a general election because this will be a one-off vote. We are only going to have one chance to get this right.”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/11/jeremy-corbyn-under-pressure-with-labour-staff-reduced-to-tears/

    What the hell is wrong with these people?? Where were the "tears" and "emotion" when welfare cuts were being voted through? How detached do they have to be from proper Labour values that staying in the EU is apparently now a bigger raison d'etre for them than fighting for the poorest?
    It seems madness is infecting all parties.

    At least Corbyn really doesn't like the EU.

    But typical politician he has to say something else at the moment.

    ---------------------------

    There's a big difference between making necessary cuts to balance the books and committing economic suicide (which will affect the poor the most) and possibly entering a race to bottom of working conditions! They are upset because they know that pulling out of the EU and crashing the economy will hurt the poor far more then sensible economic prudence. And Corbyn, like his brother, is a bloody idiot. God only knows how Labour managed to elect him.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623
    Floater said:

    OUT said:

    Come on people Lizzie celebrated her big 90 today, let's all have a
    group hug and sing the national anthem.

    I'll be attending a Queen's birthday picnic tomorrow and my rose lemonade will taste all the sweeter for knowing all the Guardian types it'll upset.
    I'll be driving miniature steam trains carrying children!
    And Sunil :-)

    Actually, that sounds like fun.
    I wonder which miniature railway that is? I've been on the Romney Hythe & Dymchurch Railway
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    MaxPB said:

    Just been reading the reports on the Marseille violence. The French papers are saying it was their local hooligans and Russian hoologans who basically just rushed into the designated England fan areas and started punching and stabbing people at random. The French are saying the English fans are not to blame and only retaliated because the police just stood by and did nothing while people were getting stabbed and having their heads kicked in by Russians. The current theory is thatthe French and Russian hooligans co-ordinated these attacks on forums and social media and they intended to target ordinary fans rather than other hooligans.

    Say what you like about David Mellor but in the past he was often the only senior MP standing up for English fans who were generally the targets rather than instigators of violence in European tournaments.
  • Options
    JunglelandJungleland Posts: 40
    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just been reading the reports on the Marseille violence. The French papers are saying it was their local hooligans and Russian hoologans who basically just rushed into the designated England fan areas and started punching and stabbing people at random. The French are saying the English fans are not to blame and only retaliated because the police just stood by and did nothing while people were getting stabbed and having their heads kicked in by Russians. The current theory is thatthe French and Russian hooligans co-ordinated these attacks on forums and social media and they intended to target ordinary fans rather than other hooligans.

    That's my reading, too.

    Same seems to have happened in Nice, with the Poles and Irish being randomly attacked by locals.

    Bienvenue a France.
    No Collaboration between French and Russians. I know one of cska's lads, hes been in touch with me for the past couple of days. Friday was just the young lads scouting the English. Main mob of CSKA arrived saturday morning with the other Moscow clubs mixed in, 300 total with no hangars on. The Russians were more keen on going after the North Africans after the match by all accounts.

    The English lads i know over there had a hard time from all sides, Russians, North Africans, Marseilles and the police.

    Pretty honest account from the Friday by a Russian, just translate the page in Chrome and also predicts the trouble Saturday.

    http://fanat1k.ru/ultras-7867-otchet-molodogo-pro-nakriv-britishey-v-marsele.php
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    Morning all. As predicted by almost everyone on here. 10 days out, David Cameron "Leaving the EU will kill your pensions"
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/06/11/david-cameron-a-vote-for-brexit-will-cost-pensioners-dear-if-fun/
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited June 2016
    saddened said:

    HYUFD said:

    To counter John Cleese's announcement he is backing Leave, Tracey Emin has come out for Remain and even created a new 'Vote In' design
    https://twitter.com/TraceyEmin/status/740188006519349249

    Poor handwriting is now classed as design? We really are in decline.
    If it's not "design" it's not copy-rightable

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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,928
    Turnout for EU Referendum between 60 and 65% is at 7.6...

    Seems a bargain to me!

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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,880

    Floater said:

    OUT said:

    Come on people Lizzie celebrated her big 90 today, let's all have a
    group hug and sing the national anthem.

    I'll be attending a Queen's birthday picnic tomorrow and my rose lemonade will taste all the sweeter for knowing all the Guardian types it'll upset.
    I'll be driving miniature steam trains carrying children!
    And Sunil :-)

    Actually, that sounds like fun.
    I wonder which miniature railway that is? I've been on the Romney Hythe & Dymchurch Railway
    There are still quite a few of those around.

    Matlock Hall Leys Park has one, for example.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,880
    I wonder whether Mr Cameron has offered Mr Gove or Mr Boris the Throne in exchange for becoming the next Brexit truncoat yet?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Floater said:

    Danny565 said:

    I've never felt more distant from my party than I do right now:

    One Labour source said party workers and MPs felt “very emotional” about Britain leaving the EU. “We already knew we were in the fight of our lives and that it was going to be incredibly close," the source said.

    “When that poll was announced there were a lot of people in tears in the office. A lot of us are very emotional about this – more so than with a general election because this will be a one-off vote. We are only going to have one chance to get this right.”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/11/jeremy-corbyn-under-pressure-with-labour-staff-reduced-to-tears/

    What the hell is wrong with these people?? Where were the "tears" and "emotion" when welfare cuts were being voted through? How detached do they have to be from proper Labour values that staying in the EU is apparently now a bigger raison d'etre for them than fighting for the poorest?
    It seems madness is infecting all parties.

    At least Corbyn really doesn't like the EU.

    But typical politician he has to say something else at the moment.
    ---------------------------

    There's a big difference between making necessary cuts to balance the books and committing economic suicide (which will affect the poor the most) and possibly entering a race to bottom of working conditions! They are upset because they know that pulling out of the EU and crashing the economy will hurt the poor far more then sensible economic prudence. And Corbyn, like his brother, is a bloody idiot. God only knows how Labour managed to elect him.

    Corbyn has opposed the EU for 40 years, has never made any secret of doing so, and the Labour Party membership must have known this when they elected him. They have no right to expect him to campaign for the EU now.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    MattW said:

    Floater said:

    OUT said:

    Come on people Lizzie celebrated her big 90 today, let's all have a
    group hug and sing the national anthem.

    I'll be attending a Queen's birthday picnic tomorrow and my rose lemonade will taste all the sweeter for knowing all the Guardian types it'll upset.
    I'll be driving miniature steam trains carrying children!
    And Sunil :-)

    Actually, that sounds like fun.
    I wonder which miniature railway that is? I've been on the Romney Hythe & Dymchurch Railway
    There are still quite a few of those around.

    Matlock Hall Leys Park has one, for example.
    Railways is a sore point at the moment. On Friday it took me 3.5 hrs to get home from Lords as Southern Railway are working to rule over staff cuts. Its chaos.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    MattW said:

    I wonder whether Mr Cameron has offered Mr Gove or Mr Boris the Throne in exchange for becoming the next Brexit truncoat yet?

    Dave cannot offer anything as he is off after this debacle.. Boris would be a disaster as Prime Minister.. So would Gove.. I fear for the Country whomever becomes leader.. None of the parties are worth voting for.. and I used to be pretty Conservative with a capital C
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    From Yougov: Osborne less trusted by 2015 Tories than Farage.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    chestnut said:

    From Yougov: Osborne less trusted by 2015 Tories than Farage.

    You really have to question you Gov when they come up with an answer like that. Who are the people answering these questions.like that . You have to consider their sanity.
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    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Tyson reckons the Euro fighting will play badly for Leave. I think the opposite, it looks like a microcosm of the breakdown of the EU. One coming to a town near you.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,832

    MattW said:

    I wonder whether Mr Cameron has offered Mr Gove or Mr Boris the Throne in exchange for becoming the next Brexit truncoat yet?

    Dave cannot offer anything as he is off after this debacle.. Boris would be a disaster as Prime Minister.. So would Gove.. I fear for the Country whomever becomes leader.. None of the parties are worth voting for.. and I used to be pretty Conservative with a capital C
    Lets hope commeth the hour, commeth the man.

    If we do Leave then it'll be a big challenge for whoever is PM over the next few years. To get it right we'll need to have our best PM for a while, possibly for a very long while.

    I don't really relish the prospect of any of the likely (by betfair pricing) candidates.

This discussion has been closed.