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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s polls have it neck and neck
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s polls have it neck and neck
There’s also a third poll, a YouGov poll for The Sunday Telegraph/Adam Smith Institute but the fieldwork for that was conducted at the start of the week, so isn’t as recent as The Sunday Times poll but finds the same result. Next week we should be seeing at least two phone polls, Ipsos Mori and Survation. It’ll be interesting to see if they are also seeing the race narrowing.
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I find I've gone off the idea of Boris as PM, but it's hard to see how it can be avoided - either an unknown Leaver shocks all and emerges, or May has to overcome being on the losing side. (Obviously next PM could be years away rather than a few weeks, in which case I think increases the odds it will be someone other than Boris, but still a Leaver)
Don't be intimidated JEZZA!!!!!
In 2015 the underlying fundamentals said that there was a strong chance of a Tory majority which was never reflected in the polls. When you consider the fundamentals of the EU Referendum, they say that Leave has to win while the polls just don't seem to be indicating the strength of the Leave side. Comparing to the Scottish Referendum, it was generally thought there was a hardcore on either side, with about 25% for Independence no matter what and 35% for Union no matter what. in the end this was the actual difference in the result, a 10% margin for No.
Now with the EU Referendum, there is clearly a side which will vote Leave regardless of the arguments, it could be the UKIP vote of 18% but is likely higher with some Tory and Labour voters being hardcore Leavers. But where is the comparative hardcore Remain vote? Some of the Lib Dems who currently poll 5%. Or Greens currently polling similar numbers. There just does not seem to be an identifiable and substantial number of Remain no matter what voters.
If this is true, then Leave starts out with a huge lead, with between 20% and 30% who will always vote Leave and cannot be persuaded. This means Remain needs to get something in the region of 70% of all other voters to vote Remain or they lose. These are the underlying fundamentals of this Referendum and why I just cannot see any other result than Leave.
However I take issue with the first paragraph - I've thought Leave would win for years, before I was even a Leave supporter - the reasons for remain become ever more intense as the day approaches, and has enough media support (even if it is still mostly remain on broadcast) and high profile support to see it through.
#PMforPM
He was referring though to the second referendum held in 2017 after leave won the first by 2% and the EU said rethink and try again until you get the right answer which will then be binding for ever ever and ever
.........just like they always do.
I truly believe EURref will be won by the Shy Brexiter - its socially unacceptable in some places to say you'd vote out, but there are plenty on both left and right who are very eurosceptic. Cuts across class lines, too.
Well done Brexit.
[innocent_face]
Tick. Tock.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/11/brexit-axe-state-pensions-david-cameron-nhs-cold-reality
Maybe it's just me, but "do as I say, or I'll be an even bigger bastard" does not seem like a very well thought through strategy. I don't know many marriages which have been saved in the long-term by the husband threatening the wife with dire financial consequences if she leaves him.
You then get to wrap one side up in the Union Jack, proclaiming Independence and Nationalism and it again says that all the cards are with Leave and the chance of Remain clinging on with no national symbols to help it out is just too weak to succeed.
Brexit is lowest common denominator politics, with less intellectual scrutiny than Big Brother. Well done. A prize is in order.
Much better able to control what immigrants are allowed in terms of benefits.
A reduction in EU laws by at least 75% with plenty of say in the framing of those that do apply and a veto on any we consider to be counter to our national interest.
Regain control of farming and fishing policy
No ECJ overruling UK laws
No Ever Closer Union
No EU Army
Our own seat on the international bodies that monitor trade and decide standards
No EU External Action Service
No paying for bailouts
Sorry but you are going to have to do much better than that.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/741748078902976512
#Toast
Nothing gets in the way of the EU project.
Ulster will give a net advantage of a few x00,000 to Remain; no more. We still have a good chance.
If Scotland, London and Ulster vote 60-40 Remain, then Leave only needs to get 53% in the rest of England to win. I'm struggling to see how it will fail to do that.
https://twitter.com/JohnCleese/status/741741834003709953
THE NEW NORMAL PART 2: BREXIT
In the Noughties, the time of Desperate Housewives and Nokia phones, Eurosceptic arguments revolved around alternatives that were fictional (nonexistent Commonwealth free trade areas), ludicrous (we can trade with Russia and China, countries that are neither close nor lawabiding) or touchingly childlike (Hannan's insistence that we should preferably trade with our friends, which is a proposition nobody over 8 should hold). They could be easily dismissed.
But since 2009/10 (when the size of Greece became apparent) and since 2011 (when immigration began to appear in the list of concerns), the argument has changed. It is easy to dismiss claims that the Euro will collapse (it stays in existence until the most powerful nations decide to leave) but claims that it is well run are difficult to hold with a straight face. Moving from comedy to tragedy, the human wave of immigrants is large and solutions are ramshackle, ad-hoc and ineffective. Blaming the EU for migration is a bit like blaming the dinosaurs for the meteorite, but this does not change the fact that the citizenry is concerned about the number and characteristics of the migrants and will vote Leave accordingly. The print media have latched onto this and are pushing it with all the class and subtlety for which Kelvin McKenzie and Rod Liddle are justly famed: it's not quite "if you want a ****** for a neighbour, vote Labour" but let's be honest, it's not far off.
Unless Remain develop a countermeasure to Leave's charge that EU membership implies mass migration into the UK - and since the charge has an element of truth, this will be difficult - then Leave will win, and win hard.
I seriously (seriously) am begging Brexiters to think through the consequences of what they are doing, or what they are hoping to achieve.
I'd vote to remain in a reformed or indeed reformable EU. No chance of that though.
1) Scotland was a net recipient from the UK and the UK is net contributor to the EU.
2) The UK economy is much stronger than that of the EU as a whole which wasn't the case for Scotland wrt RUK.
3) Scotland is far more dependent on trade with RUK than the UK is with the EU
4) No currency issue (beyond definitely not being on the hook for eurozone bailouts)
So leaving the EU seems less intimidating from an economic perspective.
We charge £5K PA for the NHS (above tax) and no benefits at all for a start.
Then we could make employers using non UK staff pay extra still to fund training. Makes low skilled immigration uneconomic.
(On another note, I drove to a meeting in Newcastle last week and saw a number of In/Out signs in gardens. I haven't seen a single one in and around Edinburgh. Just makes me wonder if Scottish turnout will be low, which doesn't help Remain)
Actually, what's been the worst celebrity endorsement of this referendum campaign? Bryan Adams for Leave and June Sarpong for Remain must be contenders, surely.
The one good thing is I do now understand and sympathise with how the Scots felt after relentless months of Project Fear. No wonder they voted to get rid of almost every Tory, Labour and LibDem MP.
This is absolutely humongous and spells the end of the Remain campaign.
The EU lies. the EU does secret deals behind the people's backs and hides this until the right answer is given in a referendum. Did we expect any different. Cameron knows as well what is going on and if he doesn't then He to is being duped by the EU so where does that leave him and what if anything, remains of his credibility and that of the EU honesty
My point is that Leave starts with something like 20% to 30% of the electorate backing them, unpersuadable and certain to vote. Remain doesn't have anything like this sort of support and their core is massively smaller, it could be as low as 10%. On top of that, only Leave has a nationalist flag waving aspect to bolster its support, There aren't going to be many people waving the Flag of Europe around. There were lots waving the Union Flag in Scotland.
There are some fucking serious headbangers on this site...Plato, Watford, Casino, Sean Fear...people who couldn't compromise in a lifetime. They appear reasonable, but they aren't.They are ideologically driven nutters who couldn't care less if the UK goes to shyte provided their version of dark politics prevails.....
And then there are other posters, many other posters, who are seemingly attracted by this Brexit, nihilistic nonsense...... in the last few days Cameron needs to appeal to these
Cameron wants to let in 1m Turks while threatening Granny's pension...
#YouDoTheMath
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/11/29/1FA8B8D500000578-2854421-image-25_1417295997841.jpg