Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s polls have it neck and neck

124»

Comments

  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3637151/DAN-HODGES-Incendiary-Incisive-corridors-power.html Dan Hodges compares Gove and Johnson with the gorilla that was shot in the US. This weekend David Cameron faces a similar choice: should he shoot the Brexit gorilla, or let it live and run the risk that it crushes him, his party and his country to death? More specifically, does he take aim at two of his closest colleagues – Boris Johnson and Michael Gove – and cut them down in full view of his stunned and horrified party? Cameron faces an unenviable choice. But the economic, national and security interests of the nation come before the unity of the Conservative Party. Michael Gove and Boris Johnson may be magnificent and exotic political creatures – but the time has come to shoot to kill.

    What more can he do? Any media time now competes with Europe 2016. This story appears to be a desperate idea from a REMAIN spin merchant such as Craig Oliver. Planted to put pressure on Cameron to authorise it.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited June 2016

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3637151/DAN-HODGES-Incendiary-Incisive-corridors-power.html Dan Hodges compares Gove and Johnson with the gorilla that was shot in the US. This weekend David Cameron faces a similar choice: should he shoot the Brexit gorilla, or let it live and run the risk that it crushes him, his party and his country to death? More specifically, does he take aim at two of his closest colleagues – Boris Johnson and Michael Gove – and cut them down in full view of his stunned and horrified party? Cameron faces an unenviable choice. But the economic, national and security interests of the nation come before the unity of the Conservative Party. Michael Gove and Boris Johnson may be magnificent and exotic political creatures – but the time has come to shoot to kill.

    What more can he do? Any media time now competes with Europe 2016. This story appears to be a desperate idea from a REMAIN spin merchant such as Craig Oliver. Planted to put pressure on Cameron to authorise it.
    How does one politically "shoot to kill" opponents who the public apparently trust vast more than they do the attacker? Boris gave a masterclass in brushing off insults and attacks at the debate with his Reaganesque "you see there he goes again" approach.

    The problem with the PM spending the last three months lying through his teeth is the public now don't believe a word he says.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited June 2016
    Corbyn wins 50-30 among 2015 Labour voters on remaining in post if Leave wins which suggests that an attempted coup would fail.
  • Options
    chestnut said:

    From Yougov: Osborne less trusted by 2015 Tories than Farage.

    Is anyone Iess trusted than Osborne? That project to get Osborne in as next PM, has failed. It ranks as one of the most inept Leadership campaigns in living memory.
  • Options
    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    chestnut said:

    From Yougov: Osborne less trusted by 2015 Tories than Farage.

    Is anyone Iess trusted than Osborne? That project to get Osborne in as next PM, has failed. It ranks as one of the most inept Leadership campaigns in living memory.
    Brings a tear to the eye, after I have creased up laughing.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    chestnut said:

    From Yougov: Osborne less trusted by 2015 Tories than Farage.

    You really have to question you Gov when they come up with an answer like that. Who are the people answering these questions.like that . You have to consider their sanity.
    You need to look a bit more carefully at the question. Would they trust Farage more than Osborne, yes, as would I, he has been consistent in what he wants and what he believes, you and I may not like it, but you can trust him to stick to his principles. Osborne has lied about what the economy will do for the last six years, and has been telling such enormous whoppers about BrExit that it's a wonder his nose isn't six feet long. Would you prefer Farage or Osborne to be running the country is an entirely different question.
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016


    There's a big difference between making necessary cuts to balance the books and committing economic suicide (which will affect the poor the most) and possibly entering a race to bottom of working conditions! They are upset because they know that pulling out of the EU and crashing the economy will hurt the poor far more then sensible economic prudence. And Corbyn, like his brother, is a bloody idiot. God only knows how Labour managed to elect him.

    "To take one example, a few weeks ago the IMF Direction of Trade Statistics database was updated to include figures from 2015. These show that the real growth of UK exports of goods to other EU nations over the course of the Single Market has been pitiful, the average for these years being just 0.98 per cent – whereas that of the Australia, Canada the United States and Japan, trading under WTO rules – which according to George Osborne is the worst possible possible post-Brexit option for the UK – grew at 1.16 per cent."
    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/michael-burrage-single-market-predictions-tell-us-less-than-the-single-markets-record-which-demonstrably-is-not-one-of-driving-trade-growth.html
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    There's a big difference between making necessary cuts to balance the books and committing economic suicide (which will affect the poor the most) and possibly entering a race to bottom of working conditions! They are upset because they know that pulling out of the EU and crashing the economy will hurt the poor far more then sensible economic prudence. And Corbyn, like his brother, is a bloody idiot. God only knows how Labour managed to elect him.

    Sorry but this is just bollocks on stilts. Even if you take the government's own figures from the "official facts" 9m document at the start of the campaign, there is no talk of crashing the economy. The worst the government could predicts is ONLY being 36% better off in 15 years rather than a possibly 42% better off.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Liar Cameron and all his sneaky officials getting caught out on Turkey, big time.
    https://twitter.com/DavidJo52951945/status/741880580195942400
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    TudorRose said:

    SeanT said:

    It does show how far we've come that we now treat a poll with a narrow LEAVE lead, 11 days before the vote, with a yawn and a shrug.

    If any of us had claimed, a year ago, that LEAVE would be narrowly ahead less than two weeks before the referendum, they'd have been laughed to scorn.

    A LEAVE lead is the new normal. So LEAVE are likely to win. Discuss.

    Indyref was won by the Shy No, older voters who got out on the day.

    I truly believe EURref will be won by the Shy Brexiter - its socially unacceptable in some places to say you'd vote out, but there are plenty on both left and right who are very eurosceptic. Cuts across class lines, too.
    There is another parallel - about a week before Indyref there was a poll showing a big(ish) lead for Yes which, it was argued, galvanized a lot of shy 'No's.
    If we get Indyref levels of turnout, I'd agree, but I think we'll be struggling to break 75%.

    (On another note, I drove to a meeting in Newcastle last week and saw a number of In/Out signs in gardens. I haven't seen a single one in and around Edinburgh. Just makes me wonder if Scottish turnout will be low, which doesn't help Remain)
    Im presuming Scottish turnout will be 2% or more below national levels.

    @John_N4 still willing to bet 50 quid at evens that Scotland will vote greater than 2% remain above the national average at evens.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Omnium said:

    MattW said:

    I wonder whether Mr Cameron has offered Mr Gove or Mr Boris the Throne in exchange for becoming the next Brexit truncoat yet?

    Dave cannot offer anything as he is off after this debacle.. Boris would be a disaster as Prime Minister.. So would Gove.. I fear for the Country whomever becomes leader.. None of the parties are worth voting for.. and I used to be pretty Conservative with a capital C
    Lets hope commeth the hour, commeth the man.

    If we do Leave then it'll be a big challenge for whoever is PM over the next few years. To get it right we'll need to have our best PM for a while, possibly for a very long while.

    I don't really relish the prospect of any of the likely (by betfair pricing) candidates.

    Why do so many people look for the hero politician on a white horse? When they do appear, more often than not they are a complete disaster.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    chestnut said:

    From Yougov: Osborne less trusted by 2015 Tories than Farage.

    Is anyone Iess trusted than Osborne? That project to get Osborne in as next PM, has failed. It ranks as one of the most inept Leadership campaigns in living memory.
    I'm almost punchdrunk with all the flak that's been flying around. When did it all fall off a cliff with Osborne? Was it the Budget tax changes?
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    PlatoSaid said:

    chestnut said:

    From Yougov: Osborne less trusted by 2015 Tories than Farage.

    Is anyone Iess trusted than Osborne? That project to get Osborne in as next PM, has failed. It ranks as one of the most inept Leadership campaigns in living memory.
    I'm almost punchdrunk with all the flak that's been flying around. When did it all fall off a cliff with Osborne? Was it the Budget tax changes?
    No! It was the sum of £4K plus that did for him.
  • Options
    Were both YouGov polls last night conducted online? I know the Opinium one was.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,072

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited June 2016
    MikeK said:

    Liar Cameron and all his sneaky officials getting caught out on Turkey, big time.
    https://twitter.com/DavidJo52951945/status/741880580195942400

    If this is story remotely true, then it's Goodnight Vienna for Cameron in 11 days time.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MikeK said:

    Liar Cameron and all his sneaky officials getting caught out on Turkey, big time.
    ttps://twitter.com/DavidJo52951945/status/741880580195942400

    It really is a cracking story. The whistleblower has done us all a great service leaking this stuff. Osborne changed HMG policy on the hoof during his Neil grilling, claimed we wouldn't see Turkey join until 3000AD - and eh voila - it was all a giant lie.
  • Options
    The disconnect in the Labour party. But IMHO Corbyn is safe. His opposition lack the troops.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/11/jeremy-corbyn-under-pressure-with-labour-staff-reduced-to-tears/
  • Options
    PlatoSaid said:

    MikeK said:

    Liar Cameron and all his sneaky officials getting caught out on Turkey, big time.
    ttps://twitter.com/DavidJo52951945/status/741880580195942400

    It really is a cracking story. The whistleblower has done us all a great service leaking this stuff. Osborne changed HMG policy on the hoof during his Neil grilling, claimed we wouldn't see Turkey join until 3000AD - and eh voila - it was all a giant lie.
    You asked when Osborne's ratings plummeted, no set date, just an accumulation of lies and uturns that have been exposed.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    MikeK said:

    Liar Cameron and all his sneaky officials getting caught out on Turkey, big time.
    ttps://twitter.com/DavidJo52951945/status/741880580195942400

    It really is a cracking story. The whistleblower has done us all a great service leaking this stuff. Osborne changed HMG policy on the hoof during his Neil grilling, claimed we wouldn't see Turkey join until 3000AD - and eh voila - it was all a giant lie.
    Plato, when do you think Cameron and Osborne started lying ? I knew all along that they were a bunch of liars. But since you were on their side [ as a right winger ], that was OK with you.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    Page 23 of the YouGov poll is why there isn't a positive argument made by the Remain camp.

    If Britain were to remain in the European Union, would you support or oppose the following in the future?A common European Army?

    Support 20
    Oppose 55

    The same tax rates across the whole of the European Union?

    Support 22
    Oppose 53

    The same welfare benefits across the whole of the European Union?

    Support 33
    Oppose 44

    A directly elected President of Europe?

    Support 18
    Oppose 60

    Britain joining the European single currency?

    Support 7
    Oppose 77
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    rkrkrk said:

    Turnout for EU Referendum between 60 and 65% is at 7.6...

    Seems a bargain to me!

    Yep - I'm on it. Back from hols and that seemed to be a nice welcome home present.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,053

    @RichardTyndall - for me the Norway option is by far the best Brexit outcome. I'd just be very surprised if most Leavers felt the same way, given that it means ongoing contributions and continued high levels of immigration.

    The thing is I really am a democrat (unlike Tyson by his own confession). And I look at the numbers and realise that if Leave win then we are looking at probably at least 70% of the voters (Remain plus nearly half of Leave) who would go for the Norway option. That is Democracy. It is the same thing that got us the referendum in the first place and hopefully will win it for us.

    We don't just turn around to the 45% plus who voted for Remain and say "sorry you don't get a say anymore". They get to help choose what comes next as well.

    A year ago we voted for our Parliamentary Reps who overwhelmingly are pro remain- they are on the whole educated, thoughtful individuals, so it is little surprise that they want us to stay in. That is how our system works. I can just about live with that. To delegate this decision to the great British public is truly horrifying- the majority are voting leave because they are racist, particularly against blacks and Asians, and in their muddled thinking believe that a vote out will make some difference here. They are not remotely interested in the trading arrangements. They think a leave vote will return Britain to the whites. That's about as nuanced as their thinking gets.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,053
    Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.

    The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.

    This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.

    The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.
This discussion has been closed.