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What guff.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
You voted for Blair who presided over the stagnation of the bottom half of society for 13 years while Mandy and his mates got filthy rich.
You support an organisation which presides over the destruction of Greece, the impoverishment of Italy and Portugal and which has made tyhe citzens of Ireland indentured serfs for the next 15 years. The reason we have a wave of immigration is because the young people in these countries have no hope and are forced to leave home.
The EU impoverishes it citizens and tells them to suck it up.0 -
Sorry but I dont buy into this globalisation means increasing inequality is inevitable rubbish. It is not any more than the things Marx says were inevitable.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
Radical action is required with a shift back to planning housing, energy,schools provision health provision etc. We can only do that if we control our borders to stop excess unplanned migration and control our economics to stop unfair practices in other countries enabling them to undercut the UK and destroy jobs wages and conditions.
If the post brexit government dosent sort it sooner or later a constitutional revolution will be enacted via the ballot box to do it as in 1945.
For countries in the EU whoever they elect will not have the power to change the fundamentals and that can only end in violent revolution as has happened in Europe so many times before0 -
I don't think anyone is going to be impoverished. Even the Government 'shock' figures are extremely mild, and NIESR shows continued growth next year of 1.7%SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.0 -
I watched an interesting piece of depression / suicide in South Korea and it is surprisingly a lot of old people who kill themselves. The hypothesis was that society has moved so fast, while the idea of respect must not be lost is still there.Cookie said:On the subject of South Korea - I am wholehearted in my admiration for them; it's far from a perfect society, but any reservations about the imperfections of their society ought to be tempered by considering where they were 70 years ago. In two generations, they have, near enough, transformed themselves from Mozambique to Germany while living in the shadow of a psychopathic neighbour. In that context, I can forgive them a punishing work ethic and they odd otrher rough edge.
Those failing / falling behind n the eyes of others, be it now getting good grades at school or being old and feeling a burden on others, loses that respect and thus they feel the need to kill themselves.
Bizarrely, a South Korean friend said to me that those killing themselves get little respect, as it is felt that they are taking the easy way out rather than trying to regain the respect that has been lost. Very harsh.0 -
It's genuinely amazing. But there is just so much pressure on Koreans from early childhood onwards. There's a significant absence of joy. All transforming societies go through this. It's happening elsewhere in Asia too.Cookie said:On the subject of South Korea - I am wholehearted in my admiration for them; it's far from a perfect society, but any reservations about the imperfections of their society ought to be tempered by considering where they were 70 years ago. In two generations, they have, near enough, transformed themselves from Mozambique to Germany while living in the shadow of a psychopathic neighbour. In that context, I can forgive them a punishing work ethic and they odd otrher rough edge.
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Pretty sure they are factoring in Osbornes genius stewardship when making those projections.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone is going to be impoverished. Even the Government 'shock' figures are extremely mild, and NIESR shows continued growth next year of 1.7%SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
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The ultimate damned if you do...FrancisUrquhart said:
I watched an interesting piece of depression / suicide in South Korea and it is surprisingly a lot of old people who kill themselves. The hypothesis was that society has moved so fast, while the idea of respect must not be lost is still there.Cookie said:On the subject of South Korea - I am wholehearted in my admiration for them; it's far from a perfect society, but any reservations about the imperfections of their society ought to be tempered by considering where they were 70 years ago. In two generations, they have, near enough, transformed themselves from Mozambique to Germany while living in the shadow of a psychopathic neighbour. In that context, I can forgive them a punishing work ethic and they odd otrher rough edge.
Those failing / falling behind n the eyes of others, be it now getting good grades at school or being old and feeling a burden on others, loses that respect and thus they feel the need to kill themselves.
Bizarrely, a South Korean friend said to me that those killing themselves get little respect. Very harsh.0 -
As previously discussed, I very much hope you're right. I can't see it myself, but will be delighted to be proved wrong.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone is going to be impoverished. Even the Government 'shock' figures are extremely mild, and NIESR shows continued growth next year of 1.7%SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
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Also would be brave of Wendy Morton to come out for Remain given her seat.Casino_Royale said:
10 undecided Tories still to go are, I think:MikeL said:
Guido's spreadsheet now has Con MPs as follows:Casino_Royale said:Looks like Michael Fabricant is about to defect from Leave:
Michael Fabricant @Mike_Fabricant
Following the lead of others, I have been re-assessing my position re #Europe.
I shall be making a statement at the weekend on @ConHome
Remain - 180
Leave - 140
Not declared - 10
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=450656551
Tracey Crouch
Jackie Doyle-Price
James Heappey
Charlotte Leslie
Huw Merriman
Wendy Morton
Caroline Nokes
Jesse Norman
Mary Robinson
David Tredinnick
I think it'd be brave for either of the first to to declare for Remain given their seats and likely v.high Leave vote. They may never say.
James Heappey prob Remain. Charlotte Leslie should be for Leave (but might not)
Jesse Norman will never declare I think and spoil his ballot.
Don't know about the rest.0 -
We knew Corbyn was a Tory plant.SeanT said:Did they not realise this would be so easy to spoof, parody, mock, mimic, satirise and generally laugh at, with savage delight?
Or - drum roll - is this graphic deliberately terrible and vague, and all part of their secret Trotskyitre plan to get Labourites voting LEAVE, as people think it shows Corbyn walking AWAY from Europe...
Now proof he is a Boris mole, on a mission to secure him the premiership.0 -
Yes that is what I thought.RobD said:
The ultimate damned if you do...FrancisUrquhart said:
I watched an interesting piece of depression / suicide in South Korea and it is surprisingly a lot of old people who kill themselves. The hypothesis was that society has moved so fast, while the idea of respect must not be lost is still there.Cookie said:On the subject of South Korea - I am wholehearted in my admiration for them; it's far from a perfect society, but any reservations about the imperfections of their society ought to be tempered by considering where they were 70 years ago. In two generations, they have, near enough, transformed themselves from Mozambique to Germany while living in the shadow of a psychopathic neighbour. In that context, I can forgive them a punishing work ethic and they odd otrher rough edge.
Those failing / falling behind n the eyes of others, be it now getting good grades at school or being old and feeling a burden on others, loses that respect and thus they feel the need to kill themselves.
Bizarrely, a South Korean friend said to me that those killing themselves get little respect. Very harsh.
But lots of South Korean culture is fascinating and although some has been lost with the rapid progress / Westernization, from what I understand a lot of it is still there and very strong.
There is the classic story of Korean Airlines having a terrible safety record, despite pilots being well trained and modern aircraft. And it was found it came down to the practice of not directly arguing with your elders / seniors, rather raising issues in a round about manner...such that there were examples where planes flew in a mountain with the co-pilot talking about rainy weather and low cloud being difficult to fly in, when what he meant was SHIIITTTT MOUNTAIN....MOOOOOUNTAINNNN...LOOOK MOUUNNNTAINNNN..
And in another case, a plane was running dangerously low on fuel and they kept making small talk with the tower at an airport. What they meant was NEED TO LAND...NEED TO LAND....when they were talking about how long they had been flying that day and be glad to get on the ground...and the tower just thought they were being annoyingly friendly.
They had to retrain the whole workforce to leave Korean society norms at home.0 -
I agree, the party is utterly out of touch with what's left of its working class base, certainly the base that helped deliver Labour governments up to 2005.John_M said:
My Mum is voting Leave and she's a valley girl from a coal mining family. Until Ed Miliband hove into view you couldn't have induced her to vote anything but Labour.
I'm genuinely interested in seeing the Labour turnout and vote share, irrespective of the result. I've a strong suspicion that the PLP doesn't understand its own base any longer.
Why a Labour MP should be "petrified" of a Leave vote (as reported by George Eaton) escapes me.
The consequences of a "Remain" vote and the backlash from the C2DEs who voted heavily for Leave is what should concern the party's MPs. I am very concerned at the prospect of significant Labour 2015 voters backing Leave giving up on the party. The party's stance has scuppered the prospect of regaining Leave supporters who voted for the party prior to 2015. If any party suffers a backlash from a "Remain" vote it will be Labour. The only thing that is limiting the potential for long term electoral damage is that there is not an English equivalent of the SNP competing for votes on the left.
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Only on a nett basis... the gross difference is much greaterRobD said:
Oh would you look at that, just below us in the league table:Fernando said:Alanbrooke, you are joking? So you think somewhere like South Korea is a model for us. What are their wage levels? What sort of welfare state can they support?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_wage
*innocent face*0 -
That's why I referred you to the IFS report. It's hardly Brexit propaganda, and includes at least a dozen models of the economic impact. It mainly seems to be anti-Brexit based on the mid to long term opportunity costs.SouthamObserver said:
As previously discussed, I very much hope you're right. I can't see it myself, but will be delighted to be proved wrong.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone is going to be impoverished. Even the Government 'shock' figures are extremely mild, and NIESR shows continued growth next year of 1.7%SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
Personally I have no idea what's going to happen. But that, I think, is the human condition in a nutshell.0 -
Ironically I think a Leave vote would strengthen Corbyn, he was the most eurosceptic of the leadership candidates last year and Labour are not going to replace him with Frank Field or Gisela Stewart are they? The Tories by contrast would have a leader who had just led a losing referendum campaign and failed to convince most of his own party's voters. He would be replaced by a rightwinger with Corbyn leading opposition on the left.
A narrow Remain would be more dangerous for Corbyn as it would likely give a huge boost to UKIP who would instantly become the opposition by default to a Europhile PM and government with almost half the country having backed Leave, Corbyn would be lucky to get much of a hearing0 -
You and your fancy terminology!Charles said:
Only on a nett basis... the gross difference is much greaterRobD said:
Oh would you look at that, just below us in the league table:Fernando said:Alanbrooke, you are joking? So you think somewhere like South Korea is a model for us. What are their wage levels? What sort of welfare state can they support?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_wage
*innocent face*0 -
They are not my figures. They're those of the institutions hoping for us to vote Remain. And the best the Government can do is 30% richer if we leave by 2030 v. 38% richer if we stay, and that assumes the EU nails trade deals that it assumes we never would.SouthamObserver said:
As previously discussed, I very much hope you're right. I can't see it myself, but will be delighted to be proved wrong.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone is going to be impoverished. Even the Government 'shock' figures are extremely mild, and NIESR shows continued growth next year of 1.7%SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
Take a look for yourself.
The EU is just a customs union with a single regulatory regime and some harmonisation of non-tariff barriers that benefits only 45% (and shrinking) of our trade. There's a real limit to how "bad" it could be.
Clue: not that bad.0 -
In the words of the great Roy Castle 'If you want to be the best, and if you want to beat the rest, dedication's what you need.....'SouthamObserver said:
It's genuinely amazing. But there is just so much pressure on Koreans from early childhood onwards. There's a significant absence of joy. All transforming societies go through this. It's happening elsewhere in Asia too.Cookie said:On the subject of South Korea - I am wholehearted in my admiration for them; it's far from a perfect society, but any reservations about the imperfections of their society ought to be tempered by considering where they were 70 years ago. In two generations, they have, near enough, transformed themselves from Mozambique to Germany while living in the shadow of a psychopathic neighbour. In that context, I can forgive them a punishing work ethic and they odd otrher rough edge.
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Still voting Labour then?Scott_P said:
We knew Corbyn was a Tory plant.SeanT said:Did they not realise this would be so easy to spoof, parody, mock, mimic, satirise and generally laugh at, with savage delight?
Or - drum roll - is this graphic deliberately terrible and vague, and all part of their secret Trotskyitre plan to get Labourites voting LEAVE, as people think it shows Corbyn walking AWAY from Europe...
Now proof he is a Boris mole, on a mission to secure him the premiership.
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I expect Havering, Bexley, Bromley, and Hillingdon to vote Leave. Sutton and Barking & Dagenham could go either way. The rest will vote Remain.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Not so sure about Bromley, it has a lot of WWC who have sold their ex council house in Southwark/lewisham and moved out to Bromley these daysGarethoftheVale2 said:
For London, I would suggest all the boroughs on the map below in green and the lightest shade of pink will vote remain plus maybe Enfield (trending Lab), Bromley (lots of city workers) and Hammersmith (quite prosperous)chestnut said:
That's interesting. Metro centres and university towns only.GarethoftheVale2 said:
I have long been sceptical of polls showing 70% of Labour will vote to remain. I think Lab voters will be at least 40% for leave.brokenwheel said:
Indeed, I work in the public sector. To my surprise it's the nailed-on Labourites who are either backing leave (put off by over-egged scare stories, I now understand why Nicola et al quickly attacked Cameron over that) or are lean remain but not arsed to vote.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Think you need to go and read what Lsbour MP John Mann wrote in Todays Sun before coming to conclusions about what Labour voters will do.theakes said:I suspect Remain are pulling ahead and with the younger ones registering, provided they make it to the polling booths, it should be comfortable. The majority of e process occue in two weeks. Suspect this on Friday 24th there will be no change and we can all just get on with our lives.
It's the lean Cons who the scare stories are getting traction with, which in retrospect shouldn't surprise as they are the ones with more to lose.
It is worth looking at the AV referendum results for a guide
Ed Miliband campaigned for AV but despite that if you look at England only 6 Labour councils in London plus Oxford and Cambridge voted for AV.
If you look at Labour areas outside London, the only areas where yes to AV got over 35% were
Yorkshire & Humber - York and Sheffield
West Midlands - Birmingham
South West - Bristol and Exeter
South East - Slough, Brighton, Southampton (+Oxford mentioned above)
North West - Liverpool, Manchester, Wigan
North East - Newcastle
Eastern - Norwich (+Cambridge mentioned above)
East Midlands - Nottingham and Leicester
Conversely if we look at Lab areas where No got above 70%
Yorkshire & Humber - Barnsley, Doncaster, NE Lincs, N Lincs, Rotherham, Wakefield
West Midlands - Dudley, Newcastle-U-Lyme, Sandwell, Stoke, Walsall, Wolverhampton
South West - Plymouth (not sure who runs this council currently)
South East - None but lots of formerly Lab areas like Dartford and Dover
North West - Barrow, Blackburn, Blackpool, Bolton, Burnley, Bury, Chorley, Copeland, Halton, Hyndburn, Oldham, Rochdale, Sefton, St Helens, Tameside, W Lancs, Wirral
North East - All Lab councils except Newcastle
Eastern - None but former lab areas like Basildon and Harlow
East Midlands - Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Bolsover, Chesterfield, Gedling, Mansfield, Newark & S, NE Derbys,
While this referendum will be closer, I'm expecting all the first group of councils to be for remain and most of the second group to be for leave.
If the two London polls showing 57-43 (Yougov) and 60-40 (Opinium) are on the money - and they have been pretty good at calling London - then provincial Labour are going to hammer Remain.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011#/media/File:Greater_London_UK_district_map_2011-05-05_referendum.png0 -
Is it possible that this has been made deliberately, utterly crap in order to get social media attention? At end of the day the goal is to alert lab voters to the fact that the party is for Remain.SeanT said:
Did they not realise this would be so easy to spoof, parody, mock, mimic, satirise and generally laugh at, with savage delight?Scott_P said:
Or - drum roll - is this graphic deliberately terrible and vague, and all part of their secret Trotskyitre plan to get Labourites voting LEAVE, as people think it shows Corbyn walking AWAY from Europe...0 -
A Remain voter
@aljwhite: This woman has told David Cameron that the Tories have "fucked every fucking thing up in this country". https://t.co/TEv0aWWH2K0 -
Ha, ha. Compare and contrast Greece, Spain, Portugal and other EU member states before and after joining. They are better off even now than they have ever been before. How many Greeks want to leave the EU? They'll vote for anything to stay in. UK wages and living standards fell as a result of the crash. The EU did not cause that. Neither did the EU tell the government to impose the significant cuts it has - the ones that have stretched public services to breaking point. That was a decision taken in the UK by politicians the British people voted for.Alanbrooke said:
What guff.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
You voted for Blair who presided over the stagnation of the bottom half of society for 13 years while Mandy and his mates got filthy rich.
You support an organisation which presides over the destruction of Greece, the impoverishment of Italy and Portugal and which has made tyhe citzens of Ireland indentured serfs for the next 15 years. The reason we have a wave of immigration is because the young people in these countries have no hope and are forced to leave home.
The EU impoverishes it citizens and tells them to suck it up.
I just wonder who we'll all blame when things don't turn out as Leave promise us.
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Because they think Leave means victory for the bigots.Wulfrun_Phil said:
I agree, the party is utterly out of touch with what's left of its working class base, certainly the base that helped deliver Labour governments up to 2005.John_M said:
My Mum is voting Leave and she's a valley girl from a coal mining family. Until Ed Miliband hove into view you couldn't have induced her to vote anything but Labour.
I'm genuinely interested in seeing the Labour turnout and vote share, irrespective of the result. I've a strong suspicion that the PLP doesn't understand its own base any longer.
Why a Labour MP should be "petrified" of a Leave vote (as reported by George Eaton) escapes me.0 -
Wasn't there a short period (in Ireland, naturally) where attempted suicide was treated as a mortal sin and therefore punishable by death?RobD said:
The ultimate damned if you do...FrancisUrquhart said:
I watched an interesting piece of depression / suicide in South Korea and it is surprisingly a lot of old people who kill themselves. The hypothesis was that society has moved so fast, while the idea of respect must not be lost is still there.Cookie said:On the subject of South Korea - I am wholehearted in my admiration for them; it's far from a perfect society, but any reservations about the imperfections of their society ought to be tempered by considering where they were 70 years ago. In two generations, they have, near enough, transformed themselves from Mozambique to Germany while living in the shadow of a psychopathic neighbour. In that context, I can forgive them a punishing work ethic and they odd otrher rough edge.
Those failing / falling behind n the eyes of others, be it now getting good grades at school or being old and feeling a burden on others, loses that respect and thus they feel the need to kill themselves.
Bizarrely, a South Korean friend said to me that those killing themselves get little respect. Very harsh.0 -
You'll blame the Tories of course.SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha. Compare and contrast Greece, Spain, Portugal and other EU member states before and after joining. They are better off even now than they have ever been before. How many Greeks want to leave the EU? They'll vote for anything to stay in. UK wages and living standards fell as a result of the crash. The EU did not cause that. Neither did the EU tell the government to impose the significant cuts it has - the ones that have stretched public services to breaking point. That was a decision taken in the UK by politicians the British people voted for.Alanbrooke said:
What guff.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
You voted for Blair who presided over the stagnation of the bottom half of society for 13 years while Mandy and his mates got filthy rich.
You support an organisation which presides over the destruction of Greece, the impoverishment of Italy and Portugal and which has made tyhe citzens of Ireland indentured serfs for the next 15 years. The reason we have a wave of immigration is because the young people in these countries have no hope and are forced to leave home.
The EU impoverishes it citizens and tells them to suck it up.
I just wonder who we'll all blame when things don't turn out as Leave promise us.0 -
I imagine it might be more to do with thinking it will have an adverse impact on a lot of working people.Casino_Royale said:
Because they think Leave means victory for the bigots.Wulfrun_Phil said:
I agree, the party is utterly out of touch with what's left of its working class base, certainly the base that helped deliver Labour governments up to 2005.John_M said:
My Mum is voting Leave and she's a valley girl from a coal mining family. Until Ed Miliband hove into view you couldn't have induced her to vote anything but Labour.
I'm genuinely interested in seeing the Labour turnout and vote share, irrespective of the result. I've a strong suspicion that the PLP doesn't understand its own base any longer.
Why a Labour MP should be "petrified" of a Leave vote (as reported by George Eaton) escapes me.
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It was a common theme in Gilbert & Sullivan - Ruddigore for instance.Charles said:
Wasn't there a short period (in Ireland, naturally) where attempted suicide was treated as a mortal sin and therefore punishable by death?RobD said:
The ultimate damned if you do...FrancisUrquhart said:
I watched an interesting piece of depression / suicide in South Korea and it is surprisingly a lot of old people who kill themselves. The hypothesis was that society has moved so fast, while the idea of respect must not be lost is still there.Cookie said:On the subject of South Korea - I am wholehearted in my admiration for them; it's far from a perfect society, but any reservations about the imperfections of their society ought to be tempered by considering where they were 70 years ago. In two generations, they have, near enough, transformed themselves from Mozambique to Germany while living in the shadow of a psychopathic neighbour. In that context, I can forgive them a punishing work ethic and they odd otrher rough edge.
Those failing / falling behind n the eyes of others, be it now getting good grades at school or being old and feeling a burden on others, loses that respect and thus they feel the need to kill themselves.
Bizarrely, a South Korean friend said to me that those killing themselves get little respect. Very harsh.0 -
So who is she? Name and lineage please.Scott_P said:A Remain voter
@aljwhite: This woman has told David Cameron that the Tories have "fucked every fucking thing up in this country". https://t.co/TEv0aWWH2K0 -
The real question is did she call him Tory Scum?Scott_P said:A Remain voter
@aljwhite: This woman has told David Cameron that the Tories have "fucked every fucking thing up in this country". https://t.co/TEv0aWWH2K
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One would have to be doing spectacularly badly to have a lower standard of living than before joining the EU. The Euro has been awful for Southern Europe.SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha. Compare and contrast Greece, Spain, Portugal and other EU member states before and after joining. They are better off even now than they have ever been before. How many Greeks want to leave the EU? They'll vote for anything to stay in. UK wages and living standards fell as a result of the crash. The EU did not cause that. Neither did the EU tell the government to impose the significant cuts it has - the ones that have stretched public services to breaking point. That was a decision taken in the UK by politicians the British people voted for.Alanbrooke said:
What guff.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
You voted for Blair who presided over the stagnation of the bottom half of society for 13 years while Mandy and his mates got filthy rich.
You support an organisation which presides over the destruction of Greece, the impoverishment of Italy and Portugal and which has made tyhe citzens of Ireland indentured serfs for the next 15 years. The reason we have a wave of immigration is because the young people in these countries have no hope and are forced to leave home.
The EU impoverishes it citizens and tells them to suck it up.
I just wonder who we'll all blame when things don't turn out as Leave promise us.0 -
My wife is friends with the pilot who runs the BA safety programme.FrancisUrquhart said:
Yes that is what I thought.RobD said:
The ultimate damned if you do...FrancisUrquhart said:
I watched an interesting piece of depression / suicide in South Korea and it is surprisingly a lot of old people who kill themselves. The hypothesis was that society has moved so fast, while the idea of respect must not be lost is still there.Cookie said:On the subject of South Korea - I am wholehearted in my admiration for them; it's far from a perfect society, but any reservations about the imperfections of their society ought to be tempered by considering where they were 70 years ago. In two generations, they have, near enough, transformed themselves from Mozambique to Germany while living in the shadow of a psychopathic neighbour. In that context, I can forgive them a punishing work ethic and they odd otrher rough edge.
Those failing / falling behind n the eyes of others, be it now getting good grades at school or being old and feeling a burden on others, loses that respect and thus they feel the need to kill themselves.
Bizarrely, a South Korean friend said to me that those killing themselves get little respect. Very harsh.
But lots of South Korean culture is fascinating and although some has been lost with the rapid progress / Westernization, from what I understand a lot of it is still there and very strong.
There is the classic story of Korean Airlines having a terrible safety record, despite pilots being well trained and modern aircraft. And it was found it came down to the practice of not directly arguing with your elders / seniors, rather raising issues in a round about manner...such that there were examples where planes flew in a mountain with the co-pilot talking about rainy weather and low cloud being difficult to fly in, when what he meant was SHIIITTTT MOUNTAIN....MOOOOOUNTAINNNN...LOOOK MOUUNNNTAINNNN..
And in another case, a plane was running dangerously low on fuel and they kept making small talk with the tower at an airport. What they meant was NEED TO LAND...NEED TO LAND....when they were talking about how long they had been flying that day and be glad to get on the ground...and the tower just thought they were being annoyingly friendly.
They had to retrain the whole workforce to leave Korean society norms at home.
He says that the three airlines you should absolutely not fly with are the Koreans, the Turks and the French. The Koreans it's because of what you say; for the French and the Turks it would be showing weakness for the pilot to modify his behaviour when challenged by a junior.0 -
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Although that's not what caused the South Pacific Air France crash, rather the sub optimal Airbus cockpit design where pilot and copilot cannot see each other's yokes.Charles said:
My wife is friends with the pilot who runs the BA safety programme.FrancisUrquhart said:
Yes that is what I thought.RobD said:
The ultimate damned if you do...FrancisUrquhart said:
I watched an interesting piece of depression / suicide in South Korea and it is surprisingly a lot of old people who kill themselves. The hypothesis was that society has moved so fast, while the idea of respect must not be lost is still there.Cookie said:On the subject of South Korea - I am wholehearted in my admiration for them; it's far from a perfect society, but any reservations about the imperfections of their society ought to be tempered by considering where they were 70 years ago. In two generations, they have, near enough, transformed themselves from Mozambique to Germany while living in the shadow of a psychopathic neighbour. In that context, I can forgive them a punishing work ethic and they odd otrher rough edge.
Those failing / falling behind n the eyes of others, be it now getting good grades at school or being old and feeling a burden on others, loses that respect and thus they feel the need to kill themselves.
Bizarrely, a South Korean friend said to me that those killing themselves get little respect. Very harsh.
But lots of South Korean culture is fascinating and although some has been lost with the rapid progress / Westernization, from what I understand a lot of it is still there and very strong.
There is the classic story of Korean Airlines having a terrible safety record, despite pilots being well trained and modern aircraft. And it was found it came down to the practice of not directly arguing with your elders / seniors, rather raising issues in a round about manner...such that there were examples where planes flew in a mountain with the co-pilot talking about rainy weather and low cloud being difficult to fly in, when what he meant was SHIIITTTT MOUNTAIN....MOOOOOUNTAINNNN...LOOOK MOUUNNNTAINNNN..
And in another case, a plane was running dangerously low on fuel and they kept making small talk with the tower at an airport. What they meant was NEED TO LAND...NEED TO LAND....when they were talking about how long they had been flying that day and be glad to get on the ground...and the tower just thought they were being annoyingly friendly.
They had to retrain the whole workforce to leave Korean society norms at home.
He says that the three airlines you should absolutely not fly with are the Koreans, the Turks and the French. The Koreans it's because of what you say; for the French and the Turks it would be showing weakness for the pilot to modify his behaviour when challenged by a junior.0 -
The UK is better off than it was in 1973 but what does that prove? The direction of travel for the PIGS economies is backwards and the austerity you complain about still has us running a 5% defict which all the "experts" you tell me I have to take note of say is unsustainable and further fiscal consolidation is a must.SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha. Compare and contrast Greece, Spain, Portugal and other EU member states before and after joining. They are better off even now than they have ever been before. How many Greeks want to leave the EU? They'll vote for anything to stay in. UK wages and living standards fell as a result of the crash. The EU did not cause that. Neither did the EU tell the government to impose the significant cuts it has - the ones that have stretched public services to breaking point. That was a decision taken in the UK by politicians the British people voted for.Alanbrooke said:
What guff.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
You voted for Blair who presided over the stagnation of the bottom half of society for 13 years while Mandy and his mates got filthy rich.
You support an organisation which prek it up.
I just wonder who we'll all blame when things don't turn out as Leave promise us.
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Hmmm - 45% sounds like quite a lot to me. And there are many other possible indirect impacts. For example, the effect Brexit will have on levels of confidence in Europe and elsewhere, levels of ineard investment and so on. From where I sit, this is a very inter-connected world. I do know for a fact Brexit will be bad news for our London office, and good news for our HK and DC operations, and possibly a reason to open up somewhere else inside the EU before we formally depart. The company overall, and its investors, will be fine. Maybe we're an exception though.Casino_Royale said:
They are not my figures. They're those of the institutions hoping for us to vote Remain. And the best the Government can do is 30% richer if we leave by 2030 v. 38% richer if we stay, and that assumes the EU nails trade deals that it assumes we never would.SouthamObserver said:
As previously discussed, I very much hope you're right. I can't see it myself, but will be delighted to be proved wrong.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone is going to be impoverished. Even the Government 'shock' figures are extremely mild, and NIESR shows continued growth next year of 1.7%SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
Take a look for yourself.
The EU is just a customs union with a single regulatory regime and some harmonisation of non-tariff barriers that benefits only 45% (and shrinking) of our trade. There's a real limit to how "bad" it could be.
Clue: not that bad.
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You'd be wrong.SouthamObserver said:
I imagine it might be more to do with thinking it will have an adverse impact on a lot of working people.Casino_Royale said:
Because they think Leave means victory for the bigots.Wulfrun_Phil said:
I agree, the party is utterly out of touch with what's left of its working class base, certainly the base that helped deliver Labour governments up to 2005.John_M said:
My Mum is voting Leave and she's a valley girl from a coal mining family. Until Ed Miliband hove into view you couldn't have induced her to vote anything but Labour.
I'm genuinely interested in seeing the Labour turnout and vote share, irrespective of the result. I've a strong suspicion that the PLP doesn't understand its own base any longer.
Why a Labour MP should be "petrified" of a Leave vote (as reported by George Eaton) escapes me.
If that were true Labour MPs would be much more sympathetic about the effects of immigration.0 -
Bromley will be voting Leave. I think Barking will as well; those right wing voters who are left in the later are overwhelmingly WWC and displeased (to put it mildly) with the effect of immigration locally.0
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In the long-term I most certainly expect the UK to be better off following a Leave vote.SeanT said:
I think the LEAVERS are underestimating the economic shock of BREXIT. I reckon it could knock 5 points off the economy in the first five years. But in the long term I feel people are underestimating the benefits that will accrue to a UK liberated from European sluggishness.SouthamObserver said:
As previously discussed, I very much hope you're right. I can't see it myself, but will be delighted to be proved wrong.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone is going to be impoverished. Even the Government 'shock' figures are extremely mild, and NIESR shows continued growth next year of 1.7%SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
Forget growth and unemployment, think prosperity.
There is no obvious reason to me, why an independent UK, with its mediocre GDP per capita of $41,000, yet all its advantages of language, location, education, could not equal the GDP per capita you find in other large English speaking countries:
Canada: $52,000
USA: $53,000
Australia: $67,000
That is a prize worth having, for my daughter. That's why I will vote LEAVE - along with those questions of freedom and democracy.
Voting Leave is an investment.0 -
But we also don't have a massive and growing balance of payments deficit with Antarctica. We do with the EU and that has long been to our detriment.Fernando said:Richard, a beneficial trading arrangement does not necessitate selling more to them than they sell to us. I image we have a favourable trade balance with Antartica.
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When has a economic projection of a nation's economy (as opposed to a single company) based on mid to long term opportunity costs ever turned out to be correct? In fact I struggle to think of any mid to long term forecast of a national economy that has proved correct. The most egregious examples must be all the stuff about how the Euro was going to lift countries like Portugal to new heights. It is the reason why all this stuff from supposed experts just pass me by.John_M said:
That's why I referred you to the IFS report. It's hardly Brexit propaganda, and includes at least a dozen models of the economic impact. It mainly seems to be anti-Brexit based on the mid to long term opportunity costs.SouthamObserver said:
As previously discussed, I very much hope you're right. I can't see it myself, but will be delighted to be proved wrong.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone is going to be impoverished. Even the Government 'shock' figures are extremely mild, and NIESR shows continued growth next year of 1.7%SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
Personally I have no idea what's going to happen. But that, I think, is the human condition in a nutshell.
As for our own Treasury, they cannot accurately forecast government spending and borrowing requirements from quarter to the next. Why I should believe they can tell what is going to or even likely to happen between now and 2030? In fact I'd go further and suggest that the complete failure of HM Treasury to understand what will happen is the reason we still have a structural deficit of about £70bn a year.
If I had a lawyer or financial advisor who got his advice so wrong once I would never use him/her again. Furthermore I would never go to a lawyer or other advisor who had a track record of being hopelessly wrong. Why any sane and sentient person should pay a damned bit of importance to any of this stuff from supposed experts is beyond me.
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Again, they might argue that without immigration the net effect on a lot of working and non-working people would be negative. That's certainly the IFS view.Casino_Royale said:
You'd be wrong.SouthamObserver said:
I imagine it might be more to do with thinking it will have an adverse impact on a lot of working people.Casino_Royale said:
Because they think Leave means victory for the bigots.Wulfrun_Phil said:
I agree, the party is utterly out of touch with what's left of its working class base, certainly the base that helped deliver Labour governments up to 2005.John_M said:
My Mum is voting Leave and she's a valley girl from a coal mining family. Until Ed Miliband hove into view you couldn't have induced her to vote anything but Labour.
I'm genuinely interested in seeing the Labour turnout and vote share, irrespective of the result. I've a strong suspicion that the PLP doesn't understand its own base any longer.
Why a Labour MP should be "petrified" of a Leave vote (as reported by George Eaton) escapes me.
If that were true Labour MPs would be much more sympathetic about the effects of immigration.
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The key phrase for this kind of story is "former shadow cabinet minister". There are several who regularly provide this kind of story, more in hope or bitterness than expectation.
It's certainly correct that there's more work to be done in mobilising Labour voters, though. In general we don't have a problem in the middle-class, city and suburban areas, but places like North Notts have lots of Labout Leave voters.0 -
A lot of the EU states are better off now from when they joined thanks to the money from the UK Taxpayer and banks - remember we have to borrow the £10 billion+ we give the EU.Alanbrooke said:
The UK is better off than it was in 1973 but what does that prove? The direction of travel for the PIGS economies is backwards and the austerity you complain about still has us running a 5% defict which all the "experts" you tell me I have to take note of say is unsustainable and further fiscal consolidation is a must.SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha. Compare and contrast Greece, Spain, Portugal and other EU member states before and after joining. They are better off even now than they have ever been before. How many Greeks want to leave the EU? They'll vote for anything to stay in. UK wages and living standards fell as a result of the crash. The EU did not cause that. Neither did the EU tell the government to impose the significant cuts it has - the ones that have stretched public services to breaking point. That was a decision taken in the UK by politicians the British people voted for.Alanbrooke said:
What guff.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
You voted for Blair who presided over the stagnation of the bottom half of society for 13 years while Mandy and his mates got filthy rich.
You support an organisation which prek it up.
I just wonder who we'll all blame when things don't turn out as Leave promise us.
With £500 billion having been leached from the UK economy since 1973 we could be a lot better off than we are.0 -
None of which has anything to do with the EU. The direction of travel for the PIGS is a consequence of decisions taken by national and regional governments, as well as endemic tax avoidance and a fair amount of corruption. Again, none of that is the EU's fault.Alanbrooke said:
The UK is better off than it was in 1973 but what does that prove? The direction of travel for the PIGS economies is backwards and the austerity you complain about still has us running a 5% defict which all the "experts" you tell me I have to take note of say is unsustainable and further fiscal consolidation is a must.SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha. Compare and contrast Greece, Spain, Portugal and other EU member states before and after joining. They are better off even now than they have ever been before. How many Greeks want to leave the EU? They'll vote for anything to stay in. UK wages and living standards fell as a result of the crash. The EU did not cause that. Neither did the EU tell the government to impose the significant cuts it has - the ones that have stretched public services to breaking point. That was a decision taken in the UK by politicians the British people voted for.Alanbrooke said:
What guff.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
You voted for Blair who presided over the stagnation of the bottom half of society for 13 years while Mandy and his mates got filthy rich.
You support an organisation which prek it up.
I just wonder who we'll all blame when things don't turn out as Leave promise us.
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A lot of people have done well out of it - particularly those in the public sector trough. A lot of others have been shafted.SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha. Compare and contrast Greece, Spain, Portugal and other EU member states before and after joining. They are better off even now than they have ever been before. How many Greeks want to leave the EU? They'll vote for anything to stay in. UK wages and living standards fell as a result of the crash. The EU did not cause that. Neither did the EU tell the government to impose the significant cuts it has - the ones that have stretched public services to breaking point. That was a decision taken in the UK by politicians the British people voted for.Alanbrooke said:
What guff.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
You voted for Blair who presided over the stagnation of the bottom half of society for 13 years while Mandy and his mates got filthy rich.
You support an organisation which presides over the destruction of Greece, the impoverishment of Italy and Portugal and which has made tyhe citzens of Ireland indentured serfs for the next 15 years. The reason we have a wave of immigration is because the young people in these countries have no hope and are forced to leave home.
The EU impoverishes it citizens and tells them to suck it up.
Ditto in the UK. Until the government can sort it so that a working family on £25,000 gross with two children can again get housed in a 3 bed semi with reasonable security of tenure and be able to live reasonably comfortably and not need in work benefits the problem is going to get worse.
That can only be achieved by
1) Shutting the borders and deciding who gets to come in and work.
2) Shutting the economic borders to scoundrels who produce cheaply abroad by exploitation by means of tariffs and exclusion.
3) Planning sufficient housing, schools, health, roads, railways, energy for the now known population and ensuring those plans are realised.
4) Using legal coercion to stop small numbers (generally very wealthy people) with vested interests frustrating this.
None of which will be allowed by HM Government while re remain in the European union.
It may be some people will take a hit, but they will generally those who have benefited most from the current way of doing things.
In Labour terms, I would prefer to see a Frank Field type government do this. But if they don't then a Dennis Skinner/John Mann/RMT type government will sooner or later.
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To be fair, I think financial services face the most uncertainty but it is no cakewalk for them if we Remain either, with increasing interference and regulations from the EU.SouthamObserver said:
Hmmm - 45% sounds like quite a lot to me. And there are many other possible indirect impacts. For example, the effect Brexit will have on levels of confidence in Europe and elsewhere, levels of ineard investment and so on. From where I sit, this is a very inter-connected world. I do know for a fact Brexit will be bad news for our London office, and good news for our HK and DC operations, and possibly a reason to open up somewhere else inside the EU before we formally depart. The company overall, and its investors, will be fine. Maybe we're an exception though.Casino_Royale said:
They are not my figures. They're those of the institutions hoping for us to vote Remain. And the best the Government can do is 30% richer if we leave by 2030 v. 38% richer if we stay, and that assumes the EU nails trade deals that it assumes we never would.SouthamObserver said:
As previously discussed, I very much hope you're right. I can't see it myself, but will be delighted to be proved wrong.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone is going to be impoverished. Even the Government 'shock' figures are extremely mild, and NIESR shows continued growth next year of 1.7%SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
Take a look for yourself.
The EU is just a customs union with a single regulatory regime and some harmonisation of non-tariff barriers that benefits only 45% (and shrinking) of our trade. There's a real limit to how "bad" it could be.
Clue: not that bad.
But even Capital Economics and PwC didn't see a major collapse in the city of London, and certainly not by 2030. It's future is global.
In practice, if Leave is the mandate, I think politicians will work together to do a deal. Germans have hinted at that today (beneath the noisy headlines) - and the whole dynamic changes once the reality has.
The obvious bargaining chips the UK has are to offer to still pay into the EU budget (but not as much) and continued provision of UK naval and defence assets for security.0 -
I'm much reassured about Remain winning, if Leave are defending Brexit by pointing to South Korea as the model to follow. It's the only one they have come up with. Lax employment practices, high pressure childhoods and a lack of a welfare state aren't likely to win many votes in the UK.0
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I think they start with their identity politics and internationalist values, and then rationalise the economics off the back of it.SouthamObserver said:
Again, they might argue that without immigration the net effect on a lot of working and non-working people would be negative. That's certainly the IFS view.Casino_Royale said:
You'd be wrong.SouthamObserver said:
I imagine it might be more to do with thinking it will have an adverse impact on a lot of working people.Casino_Royale said:
Because they think Leave means victory for the bigots.Wulfrun_Phil said:
I agree, the party is utterly out of touch with what's left of its working class base, certainly the base that helped deliver Labour governments up to 2005.John_M said:
My Mum is voting Leave and she's a valley girl from a coal mining family. Until Ed Miliband hove into view you couldn't have induced her to vote anything but Labour.
I'm genuinely interested in seeing the Labour turnout and vote share, irrespective of the result. I've a strong suspicion that the PLP doesn't understand its own base any longer.
Why a Labour MP should be "petrified" of a Leave vote (as reported by George Eaton) escapes me.
If that were true Labour MPs would be much more sympathetic about the effects of immigration.
Not the other way round.0 -
The austerity in Greece Ireland Portugal and Italy was forced on those governments by the EU Troika.SouthamObserver said:
None of which has anything to do with the EU. The direction of travel for the PIGS is a consequence of decisions taken by national and regional governments, as well as endemic tax avoidance and a fair amount of corruption. Again, none of that is the EU's fault.Alanbrooke said:
The UK is better off than it was in 1973 but what does that prove? The direction of travel for the PIGS economies is backwards and the austerity you complain about still has us running a 5% defict which all the "experts" you tell me I have to take note of say is unsustainable and further fiscal consolidation is a must.SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha. Compare and contrast Greece, Spain, Portugal and other EU member states before and after joining. They are better off even now than they have ever been before. How many Greeks want to leave the EU? They'll vote for anything to stay in. UK wages and living standards fell as a result of the crash. The EU did not cause that. Neither did the EU tell the government to impose the significant cuts it has - the ones that have stretched public services to breaking point. That was a decision taken in the UK by politicians the British people voted for.Alanbrooke said:
What guff.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
You voted for Blair who presided over the stagnation of the bottom half of society for 13 years while Mandy and his mates got filthy rich.
You support an organisation which prek it up.
I just wonder who we'll all blame when things don't turn out as Leave promise us.0 -
Well done SeanT. Another blockbuster?SeanT said:Surely the most important news, right now, is that The Sun has made S K Tremayne's THE FIRE CHILD their Book of the Week.
I even gave the reviewer insomnia.
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/7412904841533399050 -
Equally there is no obvious reason why the UK should do better outside of the EU. Canadian and Australian growth has been largely resource fuelled in recent years, while the USA hasn't grown any faster than we have.SeanT said:
I think the LEAVERS are underestimating the economic shock of BREXIT. I reckon it could knock 5 points off the economy in the first five years. But in the long term I feel people are underestimating the benefits that will accrue to a UK liberated from European sluggishness.SouthamObserver said:
As previously discussed, I very much hope you're right. I can't see it myself, but will be delighted to be proved wrong.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone is going to be impoverished. Even the Government 'shock' figures are extremely mild, and NIESR shows continued growth next year of 1.7%SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
Forget growth and unemployment, think prosperity.
There is no obvious reason to me, why an independent UK, with its mediocre GDP per capita of $42,000, yet all its advantages of language, location, education, could not equal the GDP per capita you find in other large English speaking countries:
Canada: $52,000
USA: $53,000
Australia: $67,000
That is a prize worth having, for my daughter. That's why I will vote LEAVE - along with those questions of freedom and democracy.0 -
I will blame all those who sold a false prospectus. More importantly, so will the voters. Boris, Gove, Priti and co will reap what they sow; just as Dave and George are now.John_M said:
You'll blame the Tories of course.SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha. Compare and contrast Greece, Spain, Portugal and other EU member states before and after joining. They are better off even now than they have ever been before. How many Greeks want to leave the EU? They'll vote for anything to stay in. UK wages and living standards fell as a result of the crash. The EU did not cause that. Neither did the EU tell the government to impose the significant cuts it has - the ones that have stretched public services to breaking point. That was a decision taken in the UK by politicians the British people voted for.Alanbrooke said:
What guff.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
You voted for Blair who presided over the stagnation of the bottom half of society for 13 years while Mandy and his mates got filthy rich.
You support an organisation which presides over the destruction of Greece, the impoverishment of Italy and Portugal and which has made tyhe citzens of Ireland indentured serfs for the next 15 years. The reason we have a wave of immigration is because the young people in these countries have no hope and are forced to leave home.
The EU impoverishes it citizens and tells them to suck it up.
I just wonder who we'll all blame when things don't turn out as Leave promise us.
0 -
No one has pointed to South Korea as a model to follow. You asked a question, you got an accurate answer to that question. I was one of those that gave you that answer. Please don't try and twist my words or imply something that I never said.Fernando said:I'm much reassured about Remain winning, if Leave are defending Brexit by pointing to South Korea as the model to follow. It's the only one they have come up with. Lax employment practices, high pressure childhoods and a lack of a welfare state aren't likely to win many votes in the UK.
0 -
-
Yes, no one has suggested we follow the "South Korean Model".HurstLlama said:
No one has pointed to South Korea as a model to follow. You asked a question, you got an accurate answer to that question. I was one of those that gave you that answer. Please don't try and twist my words or imply something that I never said.Fernando said:I'm much reassured about Remain winning, if Leave are defending Brexit by pointing to South Korea as the model to follow. It's the only one they have come up with. Lax employment practices, high pressure childhoods and a lack of a welfare state aren't likely to win many votes in the UK.
0 -
Can you hear the drums, Fernando? Do you still recall that fateful night we crossed the Rio Grande?0
-
Voting LEAVE is the ONLY option. Voting to/for REMAIN will lead to perdition and the end of the English as a separate people and Nation. Only the Scots will laugh.Casino_Royale said:
In the long-term I most certainly expect the UK to be better off following a Leave vote.SeanT said:
I think the LEAVERS are underestimating the economic shock of BREXIT. I reckon it could knock 5 points off the economy in the first five years. But in the long term I feel people are underestimating the benefits that will accrue to a UK liberated from European sluggishness.SouthamObserver said:
As previously discussed, I very much hope you're right. I can't see it myself, but will be delighted to be proved wrong.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone is going to be impoverished. Even the Government 'shock' figures are extremely mild, and NIESR shows continued growth next year of 1.7%SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
Forget growth and unemployment, think prosperity.
There is no obvious reason to me, why an independent UK, with its mediocre GDP per capita of $41,000, yet all its advantages of language, location, education, could not equal the GDP per capita you find in other large English speaking countries:
Canada: $52,000
USA: $53,000
Australia: $67,000
That is a prize worth having, for my daughter. That's why I will vote LEAVE - along with those questions of freedom and democracy.
Voting Leave is an investment.0 -
Good evening, everyone.
Ah, Labour MPs talking of a leadership challenge. Takes me back. To six months ago. And most of Ed Miliband's leadership. And Gordon Brown's.0 -
@JPonpolitics: Senior Labour IN sources are admitting the party's haemorrhaging votes badly to the Leave side in the #EUref . See my report @BBCNews at 6.0
-
Its roots lay in crap decisions taken by national governments and the people who voted for them. That's where most problems begin. And they'll tell you that in Ireland, Greece, Portugal and even Italy. In each country affected the overwhelming majority want to remain part of the EU.Alanbrooke said:
The austerity in Greece Ireland Portugal and Italy was forced on those governments by the EU Troika.SouthamObserver said:
None of which has anything to do with the EU. The direction of travel for the PIGS is a consequence of decisions taken by national and regional governments, as well as endemic tax avoidance and a fair amount of corruption. Again, none of that is the EU's fault.Alanbrooke said:
The UK is better off than it was in 1973 but what does that prove? The direction of travel for the PIGS economies is backwards and the austerity you complain about still has us running a 5% defict which all the "experts" you tell me I have to take note of say is unsustainable and further fiscal consolidation is a must.SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha. Compare and contrast Greece, Spain, Portugal and other EU member states before and after joining. They are better off even now than they have ever been before. How many Greeks want to leave the EU? They'll significant cuts it has - the ones that have stretched public services to breaking point. That was a decision taken in the UK by politicians the British people voted for.Alanbrooke said:
What guff.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
You voted for Blair who presided over the stagnation of the bottom half of society for 13 years while Mandy and his mates got filthy rich.
You support an organisation which prek it up.
I just wonder who we'll all blame when things don't turn out as Leave promise us.
0 -
Yes, they'll lose an election. Then someone else comes in and has a go. I believe that's been the case for the past umpteen years. It might even be Corbyn, the worker's friend. Rejoice!SouthamObserver said:
I will blame all those who sold a false prospectus. More importantly, so will the voters. Boris, Gove, Priti and co will reap what they sow; just as Dave and George are now.John_M said:
You'll blame the Tories of course.SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha. Compare and contrast Greece, Spain, Portugal and other EU member states before and after joining. They are better off even now than they have ever been before. How many Greeks want to leave the EU? They'll vote for anything to stay in. UK wages and living standards fell as a result of the crash. The EU did not cause that. Neither did the EU tell the government to impose the significant cuts it has - the ones that have stretched public services to breaking point. That was a decision taken in the UK by politicians the British people voted for.Alanbrooke said:
What guff.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
You voted for Blair who presided over the stagnation of the bottom half of society for 13 years while Mandy and his mates got filthy rich.
You support an organisation which presides over the destruction of Greece, the impoverishment of Italy and Portugal and which has made tyhe citzens of Ireland indentured serfs for the next 15 years. The reason we have a wave of immigration is because the young people in these countries have no hope and are forced to leave home.
The EU impoverishes it citizens and tells them to suck it up.
I just wonder who we'll all blame when things don't turn out as Leave promise us.0 -
As much as I would like to believe it and could believe it from endless personal anecdotes, I do not think Leave will win.Scott_P said:@JPonpolitics: Senior Labour IN sources are admitting the party's haemorrhaging votes badly to the Leave side in the #EUref . See my report @BBCNews at 6.
0 -
If a surgeon cuts a leg off (the economy) by mistake, it is of no comfort to say "well, we can get a different surgeon tomorrow"John_M said:Yes, they'll lose an election. Then someone else comes in and has a go. I believe that's been the case for the past umpteen years. It might even be Corbyn, the worker's friend. Rejoice!
Any damage to the economy caused by the lies of Brexiteers will not be solved by an election0 -
Labours problem is that it embraced identity politics, a philosopy that groups people into oppressors and oppressed, partly because the WC had shrunk below the level needed to keep them in power and partly because of international gramascian nonsense.
The WWC found themselves in the position of being taken for granted for their vote but, in the case of any friction between them and a favoured identity group ignored or worse as reactionary oppressors.
As their votes dropped off so the enthusiasm to embrace more "oppressed" groups increased.
Hence the situation where Labour have now got themselves into a pickle over Anti Semitism because Israel being (rather imperfectly) and democratic are seen as an oppressor group and the people around them as oppressed groups.
Labour really need to reset the party back to Gaitskill and start again as thirty years of economic liberalism and the increasing reversion to type of the Tories as the party of the greedy rich since Thatchers defenestration means that the original working class coalition is again viable (for much the same reason it was originally viable)0 -
Slight issue. He appears to be leaving not remaining.Scott_P said:0 -
Are they just bluffing to get the vote out tho...Scott_P said:@JPonpolitics: Senior Labour IN sources are admitting the party's haemorrhaging votes badly to the Leave side in the #EUref . See my report @BBCNews at 6.
0 -
If not South Korea, where?
A market of 60 million will not support the kind of society we have become and aspire to remain. Australia and Canada are no models: small populations with vast exports of agricultural products, minerals and energy.
The problem we faced in the 1960s still remains. The EC was the solution then. What is the one you are proposing now?0 -
Yep, another consequence of Corbyn's catastrophic failure as Labour leader is that he has allowed the referendum to be seen solely as a Tory turf war. The membership will forgive him though.SeanT said:
Oooh. The lefties are gonna win it for LEAVE?Scott_P said:@JPonpolitics: Senior Labour IN sources are admitting the party's haemorrhaging votes badly to the Leave side in the #EUref . See my report @BBCNews at 6.
Every single indicator I've seen tells me that working class Labourites are going LEAVE en masse. From personal observation to blogs to tv reports to radio vox pops to cab drivers to simple common sense - if you are a working class lefty, why vote for Dave Cameron's EU??
Hmm....
0 -
You are proposing we cease all trade after Brexit? OK.Fernando said:If not South Korea, where?
A market of 60 million will not support the kind of society we have become and aspire to remain. Australia and Canada are no models: small populations with vast exports of agricultural products, minerals and energy.
The problem we faced in the 1960s still remains. The EC was the solution then. What is the one you are proposing now?0 -
The problem we have now is that if the surgeon cuts a leg off by mistake we are not able to get a different surgeon tomorrow or ever and have to sit there watching him incompetently cutting more and more legs off innocent people while being applauded by influential experts for his skills.Scott_P said:
If a surgeon cuts a leg off (the economy) by mistake, it is of no comfort to say "well, we can get a different surgeon tomorrow"John_M said:Yes, they'll lose an election. Then someone else comes in and has a go. I believe that's been the case for the past umpteen years. It might even be Corbyn, the worker's friend. Rejoice!
Any damage to the economy caused by the lies of Brexiteers will not be solved by an election
0 -
Wasn't it turbulent?Scott_P said:@RobDotHutton: Farage describes Justin Welby as "this troublesome priest that we have in Canterbury".
0 -
It's a shame the Tories couldn't draft in Portillo as leader post-Brexit. I'd put far more faith in him than any of the above and these days he'd be seen as a unifier.SouthamObserver said:
I will blame all those who sold a false prospectus. More importantly, so will the voters. Boris, Gove, Priti and co will reap what they sow; just as Dave and George are now.John_M said:
You'll blame the Tories of course.SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha. Compare and contrast Greece, Spain, Portugal and other EU member states before and after joining. They are better off even now than they have ever been before. How many Greeks want to leave the EU? They'll vote for anything to stay in. UK wages and living standards fell as a result of the crash. The EU did not cause that. Neither did the EU tell the government to impose the significant cuts it has - the ones that have stretched public services to breaking point. That was a decision taken in the UK by politicians the British people voted for.Alanbrooke said:
What guff.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
You voted for Blair who presided over the stagnation of the bottom half of society for 13 years while Mandy and his mates got filthy rich.
You support an organisation which presides over the destruction of Greece, the impoverishment of Italy and Portugal and which has made tyhe citzens of Ireland indentured serfs for the next 15 years. The reason we have a wave of immigration is because the young people in these countries have no hope and are forced to leave home.
The EU impoverishes it citizens and tells them to suck it up.
I just wonder who we'll all blame when things don't turn out as Leave promise us.0 -
It's an interesting dynamic
If you take the "historic" view of Labour voters as workshy benefit junkies, and ally that with a Brexit campaign promising them £350m a week, you can see how they might be persuaded to Vote leave...0 -
Yes, Leave needs 40% of Labour voters to be certain of victory, 35% gives it the edge, 30% it is too close to call and 25% gives a clear Remain leadSeanT said:Does anyone have any fag packet calculations as to how many Labour votes REMAIN must win to guarantee victory?
If LEAVE gets a majority of Labour voters is REMAIN doomed?0 -
Doing the electorate a bit of a disservice. I suspect Labour leavers are more concerned about the impacts of immigration.Scott_P said:It's an interesting dynamic
If you take the "historic" view of Labour voters as workshy benefit junkies, and ally that with a Brexit campaign promising them £350m a week, you can see how they might be persuaded to Vote leave...0 -
I used to think non-voting would be Labour's biggest contribution to Leave winning. But the leadership's determination to allow this to be fought as a Tory battle has probably driven a lot of Labour voters directly into the Leave column.SeanT said:Does anyone have any fag packet calculations as to how many Labour votes REMAIN must win to guarantee victory?
If LEAVE gets a majority of Labour voters is REMAIN doomed?
-1 -
I think he has categorically rejected a return to politics (at least on This Week!)williamglenn said:
It's a shame the Tories couldn't draft in Portillo as leader post-Brexit. I'd put far more faith in him than any of the above and these days he'd be seen as a unifier.SouthamObserver said:
I will blame all those who sold a false prospectus. More importantly, so will the voters. Boris, Gove, Priti and co will reap what they sow; just as Dave and George are now.John_M said:
You'll blame the Tories of course.SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha. Compare and contrast Greece, Spain, Portugal and other EU member states before and after joining. They are better off even now than they have ever been before. How many Greeks want to leave the EU? They'll vote for anything to stay in. UK wages and living standards fell as a result of the crash. The EU did not cause that. Neither did the EU tell the government to impose the significant cuts it has - the ones that have stretched public services to breaking point. That was a decision taken in the UK by politicians the British people voted for.Alanbrooke said:
What guff.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
You voted for Blair who presided over the stagnation of the bottom half of society for 13 years while Mandy and his mates got filthy rich.
You support an organisation which presides over the destruction of Greece, the impoverishment of Italy and Portugal and which has made tyhe citzens of Ireland indentured serfs for the next 15 years. The reason we have a wave of immigration is because the young people in these countries have no hope and are forced to leave home.
The EU impoverishes it citizens and tells them to suck it up.
I just wonder who we'll all blame when things don't turn out as Leave promise us.0 -
Perhaps, Mr. Observer, but if so then surely the crappiest decision the government of Portugal et al made was to join the Euro. They believed all that shit from the "experts", those same ones that you seem to think we should now listen to.SouthamObserver said:
Its roots lay in crap decisions taken by national governments and the people who voted for them. That's where most problems begin. And they'll tell you that in Ireland, Greece, Portugal and even Italy. In each country affected the overwhelming majority want to remain part of the EU.Alanbrooke said:
The austerity in Greece Ireland Portugal and Italy was forced on those governments by the EU Troika.SouthamObserver said:
None of which has anything to do with the EU. The direction of travel for the PIGS is a consequence of decisions taken by national and regional governments, as well as endemic tax avoidance and a fair amount of corruption. Again, none of that is the EU's fault.Alanbrooke said:
The UK is better off than it was in 1973 but what does that prove? The direction of travel for the PIGS economies is backwards and the austerity you complain about still has us running a 5% defict which all the "experts" you tell me I have to take note of say is unsustainable and further fiscal consolidation is a must.SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha. Compare and contrast Greece, Spain, Portugal and other EU member states before and after joining. They are better off even now than they have ever been before. How many Greeks want to leave the EU? They'll significant cuts it has - the ones that have stretched public services to breaking point. That was a decision taken in the UK by politicians the British people voted for.Alanbrooke said:
What guff.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
You voted for Blair who presided over the stagnation of the bottom half of society for 13 years while Mandy and his mates got filthy rich.
You support an organisation which prek it up.
I just wonder who we'll all blame when things don't turn out as Leave promise us.0 -
The US is the probably the country which has more sovereignty than any other, and yet they too have experienced the same sense of powerlessness to change the direction of travel to the point that we now have the Trump phenomenon. Could it be that EU membership is not actually the root cause of this disaffection with democracy?Paul_Bedfordshire said:
The problem we have now is that if the surgeon cuts a leg off by mistake we are not able to get a different surgeon tomorrow or ever and have to sit there watching him incompetently cutting more and more legs off innocent people while being applauded by influential experts for his skills.Scott_P said:
If a surgeon cuts a leg off (the economy) by mistake, it is of no comfort to say "well, we can get a different surgeon tomorrow"John_M said:Yes, they'll lose an election. Then someone else comes in and has a go. I believe that's been the case for the past umpteen years. It might even be Corbyn, the worker's friend. Rejoice!
Any damage to the economy caused by the lies of Brexiteers will not be solved by an election0 -
Two wards that had by-elections last night, tell a story. Gipsy Hill, historically Conservative, saw Labour and the Greens win 85%. It will vote Remain by at least 4 to 1.SeanT said:
Oooh. The lefties are gonna win it for LEAVE?Scott_P said:@JPonpolitics: Senior Labour IN sources are admitting the party's haemorrhaging votes badly to the Leave side in the #EUref . See my report @BBCNews at 6.
Every single indicator I've seen tells me that working class Labourites are going LEAVE en masse. From personal observation to blogs to tv reports to radio vox pops to cab drivers to simple common sense - if you are a working class lefty, why vote for Dave Cameron's EU??
Hmm....
Laindon Park, Basildon, is historically Labour. Con and UKIP won 61% last night. It will vote at least 4 to 1 for Leave.
Labour is losing working class votes in places like Basildon, but the Left is gaining middle class votes in places like Streatham.0 -
Yes, as pointed out by the Leave campaign video, immigrants stealing their benefits.RobD said:Doing the electorate a bit of a disservice. I suspect Labour leavers are more concerned about the impacts of immigration.
If we stop giving it to Johnny Foreigner, there will be more free stuff for you !
Who wouldn't vote for that?0 -
LOL at that Labour graphic. Genuinely thought it was Boris not Corbyn as the I. Couldn't really understand the point it was making. Now I do.
Haha.
0 -
It's hard to remain civil. Please look at the economic forecasts produced by a range of people. If your analogy is that the UK economy will shrink by 25%, then frankly, you're a loon.Scott_P said:
If a surgeon cuts a leg off (the economy) by mistake, it is of no comfort to say "well, we can get a different surgeon tomorrow"John_M said:Yes, they'll lose an election. Then someone else comes in and has a go. I believe that's been the case for the past umpteen years. It might even be Corbyn, the worker's friend. Rejoice!
Any damage to the economy caused by the lies of Brexiteers will not be solved by an election
I've lived through four recessions. Decimalisation. EEC accession. The three-day week. The oil shock. The collapse of Communism. The Dot Com boom and bust. Life will go on as it always has. There are no guarantees either way, exit or remain.
At this point, we're overdue a recession; I'm sure we're in for a bumpy ride. How long and deep I don't know (I did post some likely numbers yesterday).
A future government might win an election on the basis of a commitment to take us back into the EU. Isn't democracy marvellous?
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Yeah as indicated in my anecdote earlier it certainly accords with what i'm seeing. It doesn't mean Leave will win though, and i've noticed project fear has turned some lean-Leavers back to undecided.MP_SE said:
As much as I would like to believe it and could believe it from endless personal anecdotes, I do not think Leave will win.Scott_P said:@JPonpolitics: Senior Labour IN sources are admitting the party's haemorrhaging votes badly to the Leave side in the #EUref . See my report @BBCNews at 6.
I'm not taking anything for granted, it is encouraging though.0 -
In the case of Greece the roots lie in a culture of corruption that grew up out of centuries of getting round the discrimination due to being second class citizens in the Ottoman Empire.SouthamObserver said:
Its roots lay in crap decisions taken by national governments and the people who voted for them. That's where most problems begin. And they'll tell you that in Ireland, Greece, Portugal and even Italy. In each country affected the overwhelming majority want to remain part of the EU.Alanbrooke said:
The austerity in Greece Ireland Portugal and Italy was forced on those governments by the EU Troika.SouthamObserver said:
None of which has anything to do with the EU. The direction of travel for the PIGS is a consequence of decisions taken by national and regional governments, as well as endemic tax avoidance and a fair amount of corruption. Again, none of that is the EU's fault.Alanbrooke said:
The UK is better off than it was in 1973 but what does that prove? The direction of travel for the PIGS economies is backwards and the austerity you complain about still has us running a 5% defict which all the "experts" you tell me I have to take note of say is unsustainable and further fiscal consolidation is a must.SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha. Compare and contrast Greece, Spain, Portugal and other EU member states before and after joining. They are better off even now than they have ever been before. How many Greeks want to leave the EU? They'll significant cuts it has - the ones that have stretched public services to breaking point. That was a decision taken in the UK by politicians the British people voted for.Alanbrooke said:
What guff.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
You voted for Blair who presided over the stagnation of the bottom half of society for 13 years while Mandy and his mates got filthy rich.
You support an organisation which prek it up.
I just wonder who we'll all blame when things don't turn out as Leave promise us.
The EU means that having got into a pickle they are unable to get out of it.0 -
Corbyn has been an outer for 40 years or more... He's swallowed his principles and made some lukewarm noises about the EU, what more did you expect him to do?SouthamObserver said:
Yep, another consequence of Corbyn's catastrophic failure as Labour leader is that he has allowed the referendum to be seen solely as a Tory turf war. The membership will forgive him though.SeanT said:
Oooh. The lefties are gonna win it for LEAVE?Scott_P said:@JPonpolitics: Senior Labour IN sources are admitting the party's haemorrhaging votes badly to the Leave side in the #EUref . See my report @BBCNews at 6.
Every single indicator I've seen tells me that working class Labourites are going LEAVE en masse. From personal observation to blogs to tv reports to radio vox pops to cab drivers to simple common sense - if you are a working class lefty, why vote for Dave Cameron's EU??
Hmm....0 -
Actually it's "stealing" their jobs and places to live which is probably more concerning. Concerns due to pressures from immigration on employment and housing are legitimate.Scott_P said:
Yes, as pointed out by the Leave campaign video, immigrants stealing their benefits.RobD said:Doing the electorate a bit of a disservice. I suspect Labour leavers are more concerned about the impacts of immigration.
If we stop giving it to Johnny Foreigner, there will be more free stuff for you !
Who wouldn't vote for that?0 -
Bloody immigrants...
@BBCBreaking: Police in Marseilles deploy tear gas for a second evening to disperse England fans at Euro 2016 https://t.co/v9gGPvPQVL0 -
New Zealand has a GDP per capita of $37, 000 so lower than the UK and we have a higher average net worth than the U.S. because of house pricesSeanT said:
I think the LEAVERS are underestimating the economic shock of BREXIT. I reckon it could knock 5 points off the economy in the first five years. But in the long term I feel people are underestimating the benefits that will accrue to a UK liberated from European sluggishness.SouthamObserver said:
As previously discussed, I very much hope you're right. I can't see it myself, but will be delighted to be proved wrong.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone is going to be impoverished. Even the Government 'shock' figures are extremely mild, and NIESR shows continued growth next year of 1.7%SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
Forget growth and unemployment, think prosperity.
There is no obvious reason to me, why an independent UK, with its mediocre GDP per capita of $42,000, yet all its advantages of language, location, education, could not equal the GDP per capita you find in other large English speaking countries:
Canada: $52,000
USA: $53,000
Australia: $67,000
That is a prize worth having, for my daughter. That's why I will vote LEAVE - along with those questions of freedom and democracy.0 -
The EU (and Euro) means that having got into a pickle they have no choice but to get out of it instead of repeating the same cycle.Paul_Bedfordshire said:In the case of Greece the roots lie in a culture of corruption that grew up out of centuries of getting round the discrimination due to being second class citizens in the Ottoman Empire.
The EU means that having got into a pickle they are unable to get out of it.0 -
Spot on, Mr. MJohn_M said:
It's hard to remain civil. Please look at the economic forecasts produced by a range of people. If your analogy is that the UK economy will shrink by 25%, then frankly, you're a loon.Scott_P said:
If a surgeon cuts a leg off (the economy) by mistake, it is of no comfort to say "well, we can get a different surgeon tomorrow"John_M said:Yes, they'll lose an election. Then someone else comes in and has a go. I believe that's been the case for the past umpteen years. It might even be Corbyn, the worker's friend. Rejoice!
Any damage to the economy caused by the lies of Brexiteers will not be solved by an election
I've lived through four recessions. Decimalisation. EEC accession. The three-day week. The oil shock. The collapse of Communism. The Dot Com boom and bust. Life will go on as it always has. There are no guarantees either way, exit or remain.
At this point, we're overdue a recession; I'm sure we're in for a bumpy ride. How long and deep I don't know (I did post some likely numbers yesterday).
A future government might win an election on the basis of a commitment to take us back into the EU. Isn't democracy marvellous?0 -
No - the people who used to live in places like Streatham have moved out to places like Basildon (with politically incorrect reasons factoring) and rather resent the situationSean_F said:
Two wards that had by-elections last night, tell a story. Gipsy Hill, historically Conservative, saw Labour and the Greens win 85%. It will vote Remain by at least 4 to 1.SeanT said:
Oooh. The lefties are gonna win it for LEAVE?Scott_P said:@JPonpolitics: Senior Labour IN sources are admitting the party's haemorrhaging votes badly to the Leave side in the #EUref . See my report @BBCNews at 6.
Every single indicator I've seen tells me that working class Labourites are going LEAVE en masse. From personal observation to blogs to tv reports to radio vox pops to cab drivers to simple common sense - if you are a working class lefty, why vote for Dave Cameron's EU??
Hmm....
Laindon Park, Basildon, is historically Labour. Con and UKIP won 61% last night. It will vote at least 4 to 1 for Leave.
Labour is losing working class votes in places like Basildon, but the Left is gaining middle class votes in places like Streatham.0 -
Yes do not confuse the white working class with Labour, many are now voting UKIP or even Tory. Labour has a plurality of the white working class but nowhere near the leads it used to have. As you say much of the Labour vote is now made up of ethnic minorities and the public sector and concentrated in the big citiesSean_F said:
Two wards that had by-elections last night, tell a story. Gipsy Hill, historically Conservative, saw Labour and the Greens win 85%. It will vote Remain by at least 4 to 1.SeanT said:
Oooh. The lefties are gonna win it for LEAVE?Scott_P said:@JPonpolitics: Senior Labour IN sources are admitting the party's haemorrhaging votes badly to the Leave side in the #EUref . See my report @BBCNews at 6.
Every single indicator I've seen tells me that working class Labourites are going LEAVE en masse. From personal observation to blogs to tv reports to radio vox pops to cab drivers to simple common sense - if you are a working class lefty, why vote for Dave Cameron's EU??
Hmm....
Laindon Park, Basildon, is historically Labour. Con and UKIP won 61% last night. It will vote at least 4 to 1 for Leave.
Labour is losing working class votes in places like Basildon, but the Left is gaining middle class votes in places like Streatham.0 -
Who thinks of Labour voters in those terms?Scott_P said:It's an interesting dynamic
If you take the "historic" view of Labour voters as workshy benefit junkies, and ally that with a Brexit campaign promising them £350m a week, you can see how they might be persuaded to Vote leave...0 -
No, I have not assumed we cease trading after Brexit. I would, however, like to know what other countries similar to the UK in size, lack of natural resources, density of population, employment protection and welfare provision have managed to flourish outside a large trading bloc like the USA or the EU. So far, South Korea is the only example I've been given. And once given, Leave seem to be denying it is a model to follow.0
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A lot of the experts I respect warned against countries like Portugal and Greece joining the Euro. A lot of the experts Leave voters respect argued incorrectly that the minimum wage would make millions unemployed. In the end you have to make up your own mind.HurstLlama said:
Perhaps, Mr. Observer, but if so then surely the crappiest decision the government of Portugal et al made was to join the Euro. They believed all that shit from the "experts", those same ones that you seem to think we should now listen to.SouthamObserver said:
Its roots lay in crap decisions taken by national governments and the people who voted for them. That's where most problems begin. And they'll tell you that in Ireland, Greece, Portugal and even Italy. In each country affected the overwhelming majority want to remain part of the EU.Alanbrooke said:
The austerity in Greece Ireland Portugal and Italy was forced on those governments by the EU Troika.SouthamObserver said:
None of which has anything to do with the EU. The direction of travel for the PIGS is a consequence of decisions taken by national and regional governments, as well as endemic tax avoidance and a fair amount of corruption. Again, none of that is the EU's fault.Alanbrooke said:
The UK is better off than it was in 1973 but what does that prove? The direction of travel for the PIGS economies is backwards and the austerity you complain about still has us running a 5% defict which all the "experts" you tell me I have to take note of say is unsustainable and further fiscal consolidation is a must.SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha. Compare and contrast Greece, Spain, Portugal and other EU member states before and after joining. They are better off even now than they have ever been before. How many Greeks want to leave the EU? They'll significant cuts it has - the ones that have stretched public services to breaking point. That was a decision taken in the UK by politicians the British people voted for.Alanbrooke said:
What guff.SouthamObserver said:
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This is what is doing for Remain.Alanbrooke said:
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
You voted for Blair who presided over the stagnation of the bottom half of society for 13 years while Mandy and his mates got filthy rich.
You support an organisation which prek it up.
I just wonder who we'll all blame when things don't turn out as Leave promise us.
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This discussion has been closed.