politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Andy Burnham speaks about the very real prospect of Brex

FPT

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Lord Ashcroft's latest focus group findings:

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/lord-ashcroft-conservative-infighting-corbyns-insignificance-and-the-economy-my-eu-focus-groups-in-cardiff.html

Seems much more pro-Remain group than in previous weeks. Note in particular the comments about Martin Lewis. That seems significant to me.

That does sound like a nation shifting, reluctantly and grudgingly, to a narrow REMAIN victory. Am 90% sure this is what will happen.

Cardiff where this took place is a known remain hotspot

TheWhiteRabbit said:

FPT

Reading the Ashcroft focus group, it seems random members of the public have their heads screwed on more tightly than politicians would like! They end up with some sort of sensible view despite being presented with two diametrically opposed, extreme ones.

There's a reason why the mailshot I received from Remain the other day featured Martin Lewis so heavily.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

FPT

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Lord Ashcroft's latest focus group findings:

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/lord-ashcroft-conservative-infighting-corbyns-insignificance-and-the-economy-my-eu-focus-groups-in-cardiff.html

Seems much more pro-Remain group than in previous weeks. Note in particular the comments about Martin Lewis. That seems significant to me.

That does sound like a nation shifting, reluctantly and grudgingly, to a narrow REMAIN victory. Am 90% sure this is what will happen.

Cardiff where this took place is a known remain hotspot

With some patriotic, principled, lion like (with a nod to TSE) exceptions, of course.

Sean_F said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

FPT

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Lord Ashcroft's latest focus group findings:

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/lord-ashcroft-conservative-infighting-corbyns-insignificance-and-the-economy-my-eu-focus-groups-in-cardiff.html

Seems much more pro-Remain group than in previous weeks. Note in particular the comments about Martin Lewis. That seems significant to me.

That does sound like a nation shifting, reluctantly and grudgingly, to a narrow REMAIN victory. Am 90% sure this is what will happen.

Cardiff where this took place is a known remain hotspot

13% more Remain than the UK as a whole, according to Dr. Hanretty.

West Wales, the Valleys (and Cornwall, which is bye the bye) are all classed as 'Less developed regions'. They get funding from the ERDF, ESF and the Cohesion fund. They are, unsurprisingly, a bit keener on the EU than elsewhere.

Well, that didn't take long:

http://politicalscrapbook.net/2016/06/tory-mp-who-says-leaving-eu-would-protect-wages-is-advertising-job-for-less-than-minimum-wage/

John_M said:

Sean_F said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

FPT

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Lord Ashcroft's latest focus group findings:

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/lord-ashcroft-conservative-infighting-corbyns-insignificance-and-the-economy-my-eu-focus-groups-in-cardiff.html

Seems much more pro-Remain group than in previous weeks. Note in particular the comments about Martin Lewis. That seems significant to me.

That does sound like a nation shifting, reluctantly and grudgingly, to a narrow REMAIN victory. Am 90% sure this is what will happen.

Cardiff where this took place is a known remain hotspot

13% more Remain than the UK as a whole, according to Dr. Hanretty.

West Wales, the Valleys (and Cornwall, which is bye the bye) are all classed as 'Less developed regions'. They get funding from the ERDF, ESF and the Cohesion fund. They are, unsurprisingly, a bit keener on the EU than elsewhere.

I doubt if Cornwall is that keen on the EU.

John_M said:

Sean_F said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

FPT

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Lord Ashcroft's latest focus group findings:

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/lord-ashcroft-conservative-infighting-corbyns-insignificance-and-the-economy-my-eu-focus-groups-in-cardiff.html

Seems much more pro-Remain group than in previous weeks. Note in particular the comments about Martin Lewis. That seems significant to me.

That does sound like a nation shifting, reluctantly and grudgingly, to a narrow REMAIN victory. Am 90% sure this is what will happen.

Cardiff where this took place is a known remain hotspot

13% more Remain than the UK as a whole, according to Dr. Hanretty.

West Wales, the Valleys (and Cornwall, which is bye the bye) are all classed as 'Less developed regions'. They get funding from the ERDF, ESF and the Cohesion fund. They are, unsurprisingly, a bit keener on the EU than elsewhere.

Hmm not sure the Valleys are going to be Hampstead like in their Remainness

SeanT said:

fpt for MEEKS

In some way, my ideal result would be 50.0001% REMAIN and 49.9999% LEAVE,

Sean – you are within a whisker of that defection I was forecasting. Some might say you are already there!

CarlottaVance said:

Well, that didn't take long:

http://politicalscrapbook.net/2016/06/tory-mp-who-says-leaving-eu-would-protect-wages-is-advertising-job-for-less-than-minimum-wage/

Oh dear.

Just read Ros Altmann's tweet on last thread. If true (and I cannot quite bring myself to believe it). WTF, just WTF?

welshowl said:

John_M said:

Sean_F said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

FPT

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Lord Ashcroft's latest focus group findings:

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/lord-ashcroft-conservative-infighting-corbyns-insignificance-and-the-economy-my-eu-focus-groups-in-cardiff.html

Seems much more pro-Remain group than in previous weeks. Note in particular the comments about Martin Lewis. That seems significant to me.

That does sound like a nation shifting, reluctantly and grudgingly, to a narrow REMAIN victory. Am 90% sure this is what will happen.

Cardiff where this took place is a known remain hotspot

13% more Remain than the UK as a whole, according to Dr. Hanretty.

West Wales, the Valleys (and Cornwall, which is bye the bye) are all classed as 'Less developed regions'. They get funding from the ERDF, ESF and the Cohesion fund. They are, unsurprisingly, a bit keener on the EU than elsewhere.

Hmm not sure the Valleys are going to be Hampstead like in their Remainness

Ah, I was over-brief. That money is generally disbursed by the great and good in Cardiff. You'll see a lot of 'this bollard was funded by *acronym*' around here. I'll agree that the Valleys themselves might be surprisingly euro-skeptic.

http://order-order.com/2016/06/10/momentum-row-over-hitler-placard-promoting-anti-zionism-event/

What was it that Corbyn said again....

Fpt

williamglenn said:

MarkHopkins said:

HYUFD said:

MarkHopkins said:

HYUFD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Scott_P said:

@brianmlucey: @lindayueh Schauble v clear that the union has to inflict massive pain on any departing state to contain political contagion. Brexit

@lindayueh: A day after the French made a similar point - see my tweet from yesterday about the "lesson" that #Brexit would send https://t.co/liRIRaogZP

@lindayueh: "If we say you are outside EU but can keep all of the advantages..it’s a terrible message for rest of EU" #Brexit https://t.co/YQKz8L4XdW

Threatening us now. They are mad. It didnt work in 1940 and it will be just as counteeproductive now.

After seeung this, lastnights debate and what Mann wrote in the Sun today, i reckon leave will be heading for 60% if they keep this up.

The UK government did not exactly promise Scotland a free hamper and champagne if it voted for independence either

England didn't threaten to stop doing business with Scotland as "punishment", though.

Neither has Schauble, he has just promised tough negotiations over a BREXIT deal, pretty much as the UK government did regarding a Yes win in Scotland

Something like this?

DE: Oi, if you are not nice to us, you won't be able to buy our cars anymore.

GB: *shrugs*

DE: Hey, start being nice to us.

GB: *looks at cheaper prices from the world*

DE: Ok, ok. You can buy from us.

German industry didn't get where it is by competing on price.

Indeed. More to do with suppressing its exchange rate by sharing it with economies fundamentally unsuited to the notion.

Jobabob said:

CarlottaVance said:

No doubt Schauble will be criticised for stating the obvious scaremongering:

“If the majority in Britain opts for Brexit, that would be a decision against the single market. In is in. Out is out. One has to respect the sovereignty of the British people.”

The German conservative’s intervention seems to rule out the “reverse Maastricht” option floated privately by some British MPs and government sources, whereby pro-remain MPs in Westminster could use their parliamentary majority to retain access to the single market after a British exit from the EU.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

Germans rule out handing cake to Britons after they have eaten said cake.

Who knew?

Won't the decision be by QMV - bit presumptuous of Germany Calling the shots and saying what would happen?

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rottenborough said:

Andrew Cooper ‏@AndrewCooper__ 37m37 minutes ago
Nearly half a million people applied to register to vote in the 48 hours the deadline was extended - and nearly 60% of them are under 35.

How many were duplicates?

I think typically about 70-75% of people who apply to register online are already registered.

I suspect Remain are pulling ahead and with the younger ones registering, provided they make it to the polling booths, it should be comfortable. The majority of Labour voters seem to be backing Remain, you cannot expect everyone to think alike inevitably 25% will not. It is the same in all parties. Suggest everyone calms down and just let the process occue in two weeks. Suspect this on Friday 24th there will be no change and we can all just get on with our lives.

If Leave wins, Labour would have to ditch Corbyn of course, but what is more important is that they look for a new settlement that takes into account the balance of views across the country.

That will have to take account of the real worries about both immigration and economics. It's how they are going to manage single market membership with the immigration issue.

My guess is that this is going to be a fairness issue, making sure that the people who feel disenfranchised in the UK see that the state treats them fairly in comparison to the amount that they feel that they pay in to the system in taxation.

Isn't gerrymandering just fiddling with electoral districts for advantage, or has its meaning expanded?

Cable at new low for the week .. testing key trendline support at 14350 off the February low . Looks like we're heading south!

rottenborough said:

Andrew Cooper ‏@AndrewCooper__ 37m37 minutes ago
Nearly half a million people applied to register to vote in the 48 hours the deadline was extended - and nearly 60% of them are under 35.

Some of these will already be registered, some of them won't turn out on the day and some will actually be for LEAVE (under 35 year olds who are concerned about house prices and stock for a start)

The posh boys think they are soooooo clever with this little extension ruse but I suspect it will make far less difference than they think it will.

PeterC said:

Cable at new low for the week .. testing key trendline support at 14350 off the February low . Looks like we're heading south!

"Cable" is such an odd shortening of GBPUSD !

Whether Remain staggers across the finishing line depends on how many people fed up with the EU realise that the Brexit politicians haven't a clue where they are taking Britain. Two weeks. It's going to be tight.

Even if Jeremy Corbyn is challenged, he will fend off the challenge. It looks like a suicide mission to me for any MP foolhardy enough to try. Are there any Labour MPs with a deathwish?

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

SeanT said:

fpt for MEEKS

In some way, my ideal result would be 50.0001% REMAIN and 49.9999% LEAVE,

Sean – you are within a whisker of that defection I was forecasting. Some might say you are already there!

Read to the end:

"For personal reasons - my soul, my sense of self worth - I am voting LEAVE. I just couldn't bear my own company if I voted REMAIN. Couldn't look at myself in the mirror."

I'm 100% LEAVE. Nothing will change my mind now.

If pressed, I'd say I expect something like 51.5% - 48.5% to Remain.

FrancisUrquhart said:

When are we getting a thread on how important this eu referendum is for lib dems? I mean I haven't been able to turn my telly on without seeing farron or another leading lib dem...on wait no I haven't seen them at all other than flogging a mini the other day. They really have become irrevelant to the political debate, when they have traditionally been the most pro EU & happy to tell everybody about why the EU is good for us.

Who?

FrancisUrquhart said:

When are we getting a thread on how important this eu referendum is for lib dems? I mean I haven't been able to turn my telly on without seeing farron or another leading lib dem...on wait no I haven't seen them at all other than flogging a mini the other day. They really have become irrevelant to the political debate, when they have traditionally been the most pro EU & happy to tell everybody about why the EU is good for us.

What's a "lib dem"?

AlastairMeeks said:

I would hope that government campaigns for getting citizens to register to vote would be targeted at those groups who were least likely to do so.

Any spending on such campaigns on, say, pb would be a scandalous waste of public money.

Hmmm... an interesting perspective.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rottenborough said:

Andrew Cooper ‏@AndrewCooper__ 37m37 minutes ago
Nearly half a million people applied to register to vote in the 48 hours the deadline was extended - and nearly 60% of them are under 35.

How many were duplicates?

Nearly all of them if the 2015 election is any sort of guide

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

Whether Remain staggers across the finishing line depends on how many people fed up with the EU realise that the Brexit politicians haven't a clue where they are taking Britain. Two weeks. It's going to be tight.

Clearly time for our daily reminder that "BrExit" politicians (especially Farage) are not taking the country anywhere since this is not a General Election.

The existing government, possibly with a new leader, who May or may not be a Leaver, or even an face we expect, will be taking Britain forward if there is a BrExit, if they have failed to make sufficient plans for that then they are negligent and deserve any kicking they get at the next GE.

Maybe that indicates the problem with a referendum. Ticking a box marked "leave" isn't a substitute for a policy. As you point out the Brexit politicians don't have a policy. The question is whether the public realise that.

theakes said:

I suspect Remain are pulling ahead and with the younger ones registering, provided they make it to the polling booths, it should be comfortable. The majority of Labour voters seem to be backing Remain, you cannot expect everyone to think alike inevitably 25% will not. It is the same in all parties. Suggest everyone calms down and just let the process occue in two weeks. Suspect this on Friday 24th there will be no change and we can all just get on with our lives.

Think you need to go and read what Lsbour MP John Mann wrote in Todays Sun before coming to conclusions about what Labour voters will do.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

FPT

Reading the Ashcroft focus group, it seems random members of the public have their heads screwed on more tightly than politicians would like! They end up with some sort of sensible view despite being presented with two diametrically opposed, extreme ones.

There's a reason why the mailshot I received from Remain the other day featured Martin Lewis so heavily.

Was it misleading and inappropriate to use a public figure's imagine - without his permission - and to quote him in such a way that you implied support for a campaign that he absolutely doesn't support?

Or is that sort of behaviour ok?

I'll check the leaflet with his full quote in a bit.

This is what he said:

[a vote for Brexit] "is unquestionably economically riskier than a vote to remain”. But, he adds, “don’t automatically read risk as a bad thing”.

“It simply means there’s more uncertainty – a greater variance of possible outcomes.

“Leaving the EU risks us being left on the sidelines. A shrinking power, spurned after a bitter divorce from our neighbours, who, wanting to discourage other leavers, offer us hideous trading conditions, while the rest of the world sees us as too small to bother with.

“Or we could in the long run become a nimble low-tax, low-regulation, tiger economy. Trading unfettered with all nations across the globe, able to create our own rules and speedily reacting as a niche player to a changing world (though whether that’s good or bad depends whether you’re a Brexiteer from the political left or right).

“The likely truth is of course somewhere between the two. But most independent analysis suggests Brexit will be detrimental to the economy, and on balance I think a wobble of economic uncertainty is more likely, at least in the short to medium term. Though again, it’s about chance, so it doesn’t mean it’s definite, and of course money isn’t the sole issue.”

Remain quoted the words in bold. It was absolutely unreasonable for someone who said that he wasn't going to campaign, he didn't want to change voters minds, just to provide them with information to help them reach their own decisions.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/financial-expert-martin-lewis-will-vote-to-remain-in-eu-but-urges-voters-to-make-their-own-minds-up-a7067201.html

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

FPT

Reading the Ashcroft focus group, it seems random members of the public have their heads screwed on more tightly than politicians would like! They end up with some sort of sensible view despite being presented with two diametrically opposed, extreme ones.

There's a reason why the mailshot I received from Remain the other day featured Martin Lewis so heavily.

Was it misleading and inappropriate to use a public figure's imagine - without his permission - and to quote him in such a way that you implied support for a campaign that he absolutely doesn't support?

Or is that sort of behaviour ok?

I'll check the leaflet with his full quote in a bit.

This is what he said:

[a vote for Brexit] "is unquestionably economically riskier than a vote to remain”. But, he adds, “don’t automatically read risk as a bad thing”.

“It simply means there’s more uncertainty – a greater variance of possible outcomes.

“Leaving the EU risks us being left on the sidelines. A shrinking power, spurned after a bitter divorce from our neighbours, who, wanting to discourage other leavers, offer us hideous trading conditions, while the rest of the world sees us as too small to bother with.

“Or we could in the long run become a nimble low-tax, low-regulation, tiger economy. Trading unfettered with all nations across the globe, able to create our own rules and speedily reacting as a niche player to a changing world (though whether that’s good or bad depends whether you’re a Brexiteer from the political left or right).

“The likely truth is of course somewhere between the two. But most independent analysis suggests Brexit will be detrimental to the economy, and on balance I think a wobble of economic uncertainty is more likely, at least in the short to medium term. Though again, it’s about chance, so it doesn’t mean it’s definite, and of course money isn’t the sole issue.”

Remain quoted the words in bold. It was absolutely unreasonable for someone who said that he wasn't going to campaign, he didn't want to change voters minds, just to provide them with information to help them reach their own decisions.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/financial-expert-martin-lewis-will-vote-to-remain-in-eu-but-urges-voters-to-make-their-own-minds-up-a7067201.html

Looks like Remain are focussing on his gross contribution to the debate and not the nett

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

Whether Remain staggers across the finishing line depends on how many people fed up with the EU realise that the Brexit politicians haven't a clue where they are taking Britain. Two weeks. It's going to be tight.

Clearly time for our daily reminder that "BrExit" politicians (especially Farage) are not taking the country anywhere since this is not a General Election.

The existing government, possibly with a new leader, who May or may not be a Leaver, or even an face we expect, will be taking Britain forward if there is a BrExit, if they have failed to make sufficient plans for that then they are negligent and deserve any kicking they get at the next GE.

Maybe that indicates the problem with a referendum. Ticking a box marked "leave" isn't a substitute for a policy. As you point out the Brexit politicians don't have a policy. The question is whether the public realise that.

It's not their job to have a policy. Its their job to campaign for an exit. What happens then is up to the elected government, taking into account what they can get through parliament, and if they want to be re-elected in GE2020.

As I have said before, its Leave's job to procure a divorce, not suggest the next girlfriend, or comment on that relationship that persists with the ex.

They have a policy when it suits them, and not when it suits them.

Boris wants to raise the spectre of a £2bn cut in VAT on heating. Gove talks about £1bn more on science. Both want £350m/week more on the NHS. They ant to cut immigration to tens of thousands.

Those are all policies, none of which is supposedly their remit to suggest.

The fact that a post-exit government might choose to do those things (but not all of them!) is not the way it is framed.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

theakes said:

I suspect Remain are pulling ahead and with the younger ones registering, provided they make it to the polling booths, it should be comfortable. The majority of Labour voters seem to be backing Remain, you cannot expect everyone to think alike inevitably 25% will not. It is the same in all parties. Suggest everyone calms down and just let the process occue in two weeks. Suspect this on Friday 24th there will be no change and we can all just get on with our lives.

Think you need to go and read what Lsbour MP John Mann wrote in Todays Sun before coming to conclusions about what Labour voters will do.

Indeed, I work in the public sector. To my surprise it's the nailed-on Labourites who are either backing leave (put off by over-egged scare stories, I now understand why Nicola et al quickly attacked Cameron over that) or are lean remain but not arsed to vote.

It's the lean Cons who the scare stories are getting traction with, which in retrospect shouldn't surprise as they are the ones with more to lose.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

theakes said:

I suspect Remain are pulling ahead and with the younger ones registering, provided they make it to the polling booths, it should be comfortable. The majority of Labour voters seem to be backing Remain, you cannot expect everyone to think alike inevitably 25% will not. It is the same in all parties. Suggest everyone calms down and just let the process occue in two weeks. Suspect this on Friday 24th there will be no change and we can all just get on with our lives.

Think you need to go and read what Lsbour MP John Mann wrote in Todays Sun before coming to conclusions about what Labour voters will do.

The majority on this site are avid Leavers, if they're alo

LucyJones said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

When are we getting a thread on how important this eu referendum is for lib dems? I mean I haven't been able to turn my telly on without seeing farron or another leading lib dem...on wait no I haven't seen them at all other than flogging a mini the other day. They really have become irrevelant to the political debate, when they have traditionally been the most pro EU & happy to tell everybody about why the EU is good for us.

What's a "lib dem"?

These guys:
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 15h15 hours ago

Surrey Docks (Southwark) result:
LDEM: 51.7% (+20.1)
LAB: 21.3% (-0.3)
CON: 12.9% (-7.0)
GRN: 7.4% (-4.3)
UKIP: 6.3% (-8.9)
IND: 0.3% (+0.3)

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

If Leave win then it will be because Corbyn's half-hearted "meh take it or leave it" attitude to the EU is in line with the nations, as opposed to his "colleagues" fervent Europhilia.

To depose of Corbyn because of the one thing he is actually in tune with the nation over, rather than his litany of problems would make the Labour Party a complete joke.

No one can claim that Corbyn got elected by pretending to be a euro-enthusiast. They voted for him with their eyes open.

Did you get my PM?

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

Whether Remain staggers across the finishing line depends on how many people fed up with the EU realise that the Brexit politicians haven't a clue where they are taking Britain. Two weeks. It's going to be tight.

Clearly time for our daily reminder that "BrExit" politicians (especially Farage) are not taking the country anywhere since this is not a General Election.

The existing government, possibly with a new leader, who May or may not be a Leaver, or even an face we expect, will be taking Britain forward if there is a BrExit, if they have failed to make sufficient plans for that then they are negligent and deserve any kicking they get at the next GE.

Maybe that indicates the problem with a referendum. Ticking a box marked "leave" isn't a substitute for a policy. As you point out the Brexit politicians don't have a policy. The question is whether the public realise that.

It's not their job to have a policy. Its their job to campaign for an exit. What happens then is up to the elected government, taking into account what they can get through parliament, and if they want to be re-elected in GE2020.

As I have said before, its Leave's job to procure a divorce, not suggest the next girlfriend, or comment on that relationship that persists with the ex.

They have a policy when it suits them, and not when it suits them.

Boris wants to raise the spectre of a £2bn cut in VAT on heating. Gove talks about £1bn more on science. Both want £350m/week more on the NHS. They ant to cut immigration to tens of thousands.

Those are all policies, none of which is supposedly their remit to suggest.

The fact that a post-exit government might choose to do those things (but not all of them!) is not the way it is framed.

Exactly so. They are Tories and will say and do anything in order to win. They have no shame.

PClipp said:

logical_song said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

What's a "lib dem"?

These guys:
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 15h15 hours ago

Surrey Docks (Southwark) result:
LDEM: 51.7% (+20.1)
LAB: 21.3% (-0.3)
CON: 12.9% (-7.0)
GRN: 7.4% (-4.3)
UKIP: 6.3% (-8.9)
IND: 0.3% (+0.3)

The Lib Dems timed that election result just right for you to reply, eh Mr Song!!!!!

Just give me the facts!

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

Whether Remain staggers across the finishing line depends on how many people fed up with the EU realise that the Brexit politicians haven't a clue where they are taking Britain. Two weeks. It's going to be tight.

Clearly time for our daily reminder that "BrExit" politicians (especially Farage) are not taking the country anywhere since this is not a General Election.

The existing government, possibly with a new leader, who May or may not be a Leaver, or even an face we expect, will be taking Britain forward if there is a BrExit, if they have failed to make sufficient plans for that then they are negligent and deserve any kicking they get at the next GE.

Maybe that indicates the problem with a referendum. Ticking a box marked "leave" isn't a substitute for a policy. As you point out the Brexit politicians don't have a policy. The question is whether the public realise that.

It's not their job to have a policy. Its their job to campaign for an exit. What happens then is up to the elected government, taking into account what they can get through parliament, and if they want to be re-elected in GE2020.

As I have said before, its Leave's job to procure a divorce, not suggest the next girlfriend, or comment on that relationship that persists with the ex.

They have a policy when it suits them, and not when it suits them.

Boris wants to raise the spectre of a £2bn cut in VAT on heating. Gove talks about £1bn more on science. Both want £350m/week more on the NHS. They ant to cut immigration to tens of thousands.

Those are all policies, none of which is supposedly their remit to suggest.

The fact that a post-exit government might choose to do those things (but not all of them!) is not the way it is framed.

I think that's a fair point. I, personally, am prepared at this stage due to being sick of the EU to take leaps into the unknown on many things, but that is a negative too far for many others, and Leave is pressured to, and willing to in some instances, to suggest there are things that will happen as a result of a Leave vote which are merely within the range of possibilities for a post-leave government. They might well include that in the fine print, or even in bold, but it is lost amidst the implication of their campaign, which is that these things will happen, not that they might. I equate it to Labour being prepared to cut some things, but the implication was they opposed any cut due to the tone of their campaigning.

There appears to be a capital flight to risk free (UK gilts) given this weeks pricing of the auctions.

20 year 0 1/8% indexed linked gilts going for a real yield of -0.974%.

http://www.dmo.gov.uk/documentview.aspx?docName=/gilts/press/090616index.pdf

Should this be seen as good news?

PClipp said:

FF43 said:

Maybe that indicates the problem with a referendum. Ticking a box marked "leave" isn't a substitute for a policy. As you point out the Brexit politicians don't have a policy. The question is whether the public realise that.

And Remain do not have a policy either. Nobody has a clue how far Cameron will go if the Remain campaign gets a majority. I think we ought to be told beforehand.

Referenda have been useful to politicians to get them over party political problems. They aren't a great way to make policy or important decisions. If this one blows up in Cameron's face he will have only himself to blame.
Look forward to Priti Patel's referendum on the death penalty.

PClipp said:

logical_song said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

What's a "lib dem"?

These guys:
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 15h15 hours ago

Surrey Docks (Southwark) result:
LDEM: 51.7% (+20.1)
LAB: 21.3% (-0.3)
CON: 12.9% (-7.0)
GRN: 7.4% (-4.3)
UKIP: 6.3% (-8.9)
IND: 0.3% (+0.3)

The Lib Dems timed that election result just right for you to reply, eh Mr Song!!!!!

LD gain from Tories here in darkest Wiltshire a month ago too - on the charge!

In all seriousness I hope they do recover quickly, or UKIP can breakthrough post a referendum - a strong third party (outside of the very very strong regional one) is a good thing I think.

Any idea why Betfair is so much out of sync with the Bookies?

Tightest odds : 45/20 - Betfair 54/20

Indigo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I would hope that government campaigns for getting citizens to register to vote would be targeted at those groups who were least likely to do so.

Any spending on such campaigns on, say, pb would be a scandalous waste of public money.

Certainly if that is consistent. Considering we've had a General Election under this PM last year and regular Local Elections it should be easy enough to know if the same or different demographics are being targeted this time. If its only this time that its been microtargeted to those demographically favourable to the government's preferred option would that be immoral if not illegal.

Targeting your message to your preferred demographic using campaign money is clearly perfectly acceptable.

Targeting voter registration to your preferred demographic using public money would be a complete scandal.

It's not like the Conservative Party is squeaky clean on the matter of campaign funding at the moment.

None of them are, it would seem.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

alo Mr Song?

Hello to you too.

Pulpstar said:

Verulamius said:

There appears to be a capital flight to risk free (UK gilts) given this weeks pricing of the auctions.

20 year 0 1/8% indexed linked gilts going for a real yield of -0.974%.

http://www.dmo.gov.uk/documentview.aspx?docName=/gilts/press/090616index.pdf

Should this be seen as good news?

Errm wouldn't yields be heading up if gilts (UK debt) was seen as riskier ?!

Pension schemes should not have to buy these return free investments, it is part of what is creating the big deficits.

I agree. If the UK government is seen as riskier than comparable investments you would expect yields to go up, but they are not.

tlg86 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

weejonnie said:

I forecast that this would start to happen last week.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/10/pictures-pro-brexit-shop-owned-elderly-brothers-windows-smashed-london/

More Remain panic

I put up a leave poster, the first time I have ever put up a poster.

If it gets attacked (to be fair not very likely in my part of the world) I will take great pleasure in sending Mr Dacre some appropriate sadface pictures.

Do you think the authorities are preparing for trouble on 24 June in the event of Leave winning?

I hope so - it took the left less than 24 hours to start rioting after the 2010 AND 2015 election results.

tlg86 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

weejonnie said:

I forecast that this would start to happen last week.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/10/pictures-pro-brexit-shop-owned-elderly-brothers-windows-smashed-london/

More Remain panic

I put up a leave poster, the first time I have ever put up a poster.

If it gets attacked (to be fair not very likely in my part of the world) I will take great pleasure in sending Mr Dacre some appropriate sadface pictures.

Do you think the authorities are preparing for trouble on 24 June in the event of Leave winning?

They should do - Blair and Major have warned us about the IRA.