politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A proxy bet for a Leave victory

Scott_P said:

First palpable hit of the Little Englander line

@MrHarryCole: Dominic Raab not happy about being called a Little Englander by the PM: https://t.co/OIs3opv82j

Expect it to be used incessantly from now on

Barnesian said:

Tissue_Price said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Pong said:

Casino_Royale said:

weejonnie said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Can. Anyone tell me what results in the Sunderland declaration at about 11pm will signify for the overall result?

Is that when they confirm who their new striker is?

The short answer is: we don't know. Sunderland is massively Labour, of course, so in theory should vote Remain. Let's see

UKIP : 20%
Labour: 50%
Tories : 23%
Lib Dems/ Green 7%

Gives
19% Leave : 1% Remain
17% Leave : 33% Remain
13% Leave : 10% Remain
1% Leave : 6% Remain

Total : Leave 50%: Remain 50%

Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.

I would expect Sunderland to go Leave by at least 5%.

If it doesn't then Remain are probably on course for a clear victory.

I agree. With that age/demographic profile, leave will be hoping for at least 55% on a decent turnout if they're looking to win UK wide.

Sunderland counting area;

AB 12.9%
C1 29.7%
C2 22.3%
DE 35.2%

18-29 20%
30-64 59%
65+ 21%

Median Age 41

Back in 2011, Sunderland was 5.5 percentage points more anti-AV compared to the national result, with a 4.6% lower turnout.

Many thanks. So Leave are looking for a healthy win and a decent turnout in Sunderland.

Looka like the best bet for those of us who work will be to hang on for Sunderland then go to bed until about 5am

Chris Hanretty's spreadsheet has a 6.2% lead for Leave in Sunderland, as the par result based on deadlock overall.

I'm not sure how he's treating DK's though.

https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/the-eu-referendum-what-to-expect-on-the-night-521792dd3eef#.6weq40vlt

The average lead for LEAVE in his spreadsheet is 2.5%. I don't know how that squares with a par result overall.

After Sunderland (LEAVE lead of 6.2%) his cumulative figures gives a lead for REMAIN for the next fifty results until Broxbourne which has a projected LEAVE lead of 26%. LEAVE then goes into the lead cumulatively. It's going to be a roller-coaster night.

Casino_Royale said:

FrankBooth said:

I see Rob Hayward is calling it for leave. No idea of his credentials but apparently he was quite good with the GE result last year.

I think a narrow Leave vote and an exit into the EEA, via Parliament vote, may now be a 40% shot.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Midwinter, I appreciate that perspective but hope you reconsider.

[It's not too dissimilar to my own view, but I fall the other side of the fence and simply don't trust the EU].

TheScreamingEagles said:

PB is number 6 in the UK's top political blogs.

They say

Editor Mike Smithson provides informed, intelligent analysis on key political events. Whether the outcome of the EU referendum or party leadership contests, this is the blog to go to if you want reasoned debate and, as the name suggests, a focus on political betting opportunities. The fact that Political Betting’s readership is formed largely of non-betters is testament to the quality of the content it produces.

http://www.vuelio.com/uk/social-media-index/top-10-uk-political-blogs/

david_herdson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pro_Rata said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pro_Rata said:

Was nice to have William Hague getting air time this morning for Remain. The more we see of affable types who are (relatively) trusted across the board in the final two weeks, taking some of the burden / limelight from Cameron, the better. Alan Johnson was mentioned down thread - a very similar principle.

Cause to regret - an LD figure would also be good, Paddy is all well and good, but as I thought about this post, I got a deep pang of regret that we do not have Charles Kennedy any more, especially a Charles Kennedy at his peak. He would have been great in all this.

Politics is changing.

It's now massively different from the late 1990s, and is rapidly moving on from the Cameron/Osborne era (moulded by Blair) as we speak.

Heseltine, Ashdown, Kinnock and Mandelson aren't going to do much more than preach to the converted.

I agree Kennedy is a loss for Remain. Blair doesn't dare say a word. Major is probably neutral. Gordon Brown might be a mild positive. Ruth Davidson almost certainly is.

But the big beasts of the post-Thatcher era are no more.

If Remain want to win, they need to do it with new faces that look to the future.

Same for Leave.

Major has the right sort of profile overall. But it is too personal for him - every utterance he makes smacks of his ongoing bitterness over 'the bastards'.

Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.

The whole nature of the debate has shifted massively.

Prior to 2005, there wasn't a single Conservative MP openly committed to leaving the EU, now there are over a hundred.

When Hague was Tory leader, the party's European slogan was 'in Europe, not run by Europe' and it's central policy was to rule out membership of the Euro during the next parliament - in other words, to consider it possible post-2005/6. The Lib Dems, IIRC, were in favour; Labour retained an open mind subject to events.

In 2005, UKIP won only 2.2% of the vote - fewer than Goldsmith's Referendum Party in 1997 - and had only recently defeated a Big Three (as they then were) candidate at a by-election for the first time.

Put simply, those whose views haven't changed much in the last ten years have seen them shift either from the fringe to the mainstream or vice versa.

Alistair said:

Sandpit said:

logical_song said:

Sandpit said:

OchEye said:

...and potentially Sturgeon herself in an election overspend investigation by using a helicopter and not declaring the correct cost.

The referendum campaign is seriously hiding what would have been a huge story about election expenses in 2015, with every major party in up to their neck in it.

We still might get one or two prosecutions, but it's obvious the Electoral Commission need to urgently clarify what's counted as local and national election spending - if they don't change the rules completely for the 2020 General Election.

It's the Tories who are up to their neck in the election expenses story. They used a battlebus to bus in activist to help in specific constituencies. They have used legal means to try to avoid handing over information. They are quite naturally trying to say other parties did the same thing, but it doesn't appear to be working.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36271515
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36231138
http://www.markpack.org.uk/140952/adrian-sanders-election-expenses/

Nope, it's not a party political point. Guido has also fingered Nick Clegg, Cat Smith (Labour, possibly the worst offender for failing to declare her own campaign staff) and the SNP (who hired a branded helicopter to get around) as well as the Tories. All parties had battle buses and it seems that they all declared them incorrectly in the same way.

I haven't followed this closely but I don't see how the helicopter, which transported the party leader Nicola Sturgeon plus a couple of aides and had a big picture of Sturgeon on the side would count as local spending.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. P, didn't read it but there was a good Mash headline about Top Gear's viewing figures being great if you include people walking past Dixon's.

Mr. Eagles, I think we all know that the readership yearns for discussion of the Second Punic War, Byzantium, the Diadochi and F1.

They yearn for my subtle puns and pop culture references.

Jobabob said:

@david_herdson

Morning, David. Hillary had in fact conceded by this stage in 2008. Sanders would be wise to follow suit. It's actually hard to see him going through with his threat.

Casino_Royale said:

FrankBooth said:

I see Rob Hayward is calling it for leave. No idea of his credentials but apparently he was quite good with the GE result last year.

I think a narrow Leave vote and an exit into the EEA, via Parliament vote, may now be a 40% shot.

Jobabob said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

PB is number 6 in the UK's top political blogs.

They say

Editor Mike Smithson provides informed, intelligent analysis on key political events. Whether the outcome of the EU referendum or party leadership contests, this is the blog to go to if you want reasoned debate and, as the name suggests, a focus on political betting opportunities. The fact that Political Betting’s readership is formed largely of non-betters is testament to the quality of the content it produces.

http://www.vuelio.com/uk/social-media-index/top-10-uk-political-blogs/

Pb should be number 1.

This website is infinitely better than Guido, Labour List and Wings!

And you should get a hat-tip as deputy ed too, btw.

I find Guido dismal. No idea how they justify its number one status.

dr_spyn said:

London Evening Standard poll.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/londoners-back-remaining-in-the-eu-by-clear-majority-poll-shows-a3266416.html

Pulpstar said:

RodCrosby said:

FPT"RodCrosby said:
Puzzle time.

a) I toss a coin 100 times. I find that the longest run of tails is six. Is there anything I can conclude about whether the coin is unbiased or not?

b) I toss a coin a million times. What is the longest run of tails for me to conclude the coin is biased towards tails (or heads)?

You can guess if you like..."

Any more guesses?

a) I'd go with "no" seeing as you have a 1/64 chance on each run with 94 "runs". I think you can conclude the coin is unbias.

b) 30 maybe ?

david_herdson said:

Jobabob said:

@david_herdson

Morning, David. Hillary had in fact conceded by this stage in 2008. Sanders would be wise to follow suit. It's actually hard to see him going through with his threat.

Did she? I thought she pushed it all the way to the convention floor.

Whether wise or not, I fully expect Sanders to fight as long as techincally possible unless he gets major concessions on policy. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a full floor vote at the convention. Sanders is not an instinctive or career Democrat and is unlikely to be greatly concerned by any damage such a course would cause.

weejonnie said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Can. Anyone tell me what results in the Sunderland declaration at about 11pm will signify for the overall result?

Is that when they confirm who their new striker is?

The short answer is: we don't know. Sunderland is massively Labour, of course, so in theory should vote Remain. Let's see

UKIP : 20%
Labour: 50%
Tories : 23%
Lib Dems/ Green 7%

Gives
19% Leave : 1% Remain
17% Leave : 33% Remain
13% Leave : 10% Remain
1% Leave : 6% Remain

Total : Leave 50%: Remain 50%

Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.

dr_spyn said:

London Evening Standard poll.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/londoners-back-remaining-in-the-eu-by-clear-majority-poll-shows-a3266416.html

rcs1000 said:

PlatoSaid said:

Harry Cole
Dominic Raab not happy about being called a Little Englander by the PM: https://t.co/OIs3opv82j


Vote Leave reveal Cypriot estate agent brochure offering passports for sale to Russians, giving them EU citizenship. https://t.co/jkP9GRYI2C

We are the country with the easiest to buy passports in the EU.

If you just *intend* to invest £2m in the UK, you can get a passport, you don't even have to have it.

logical_song said:

david_herdson said:

Jobabob said:

@david_herdson

Morning, David. Hillary had in fact conceded by this stage in 2008. Sanders would be wise to follow suit. It's actually hard to see him going through with his threat.

Did she? I thought she pushed it all the way to the convention floor.

Whether wise or not, I fully expect Sanders to fight as long as techincally possible unless he gets major concessions on policy. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a full floor vote at the convention. Sanders is not an instinctive or career Democrat and is unlikely to be greatly concerned by any damage such a course would cause.

She did concede:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=5020581

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

dr_spyn said:

London Evening Standard poll.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/londoners-back-remaining-in-the-eu-by-clear-majority-poll-shows-a3266416.html

57/43 is not good for Remain in London. Additionally we don't know what kind of turnout filter YouGov are using, they say that half of younh people won't bother to vote and they are the group most on favour of remaining.

That's rubbish for REMAIN.

They must have been hoping for 60/40 in London at the very least, maybe 65/35?

At this rate only London, Scotland and Ulster will vote REMAIN, and then REMAIN loses

Bob__Sykes said:

Don't know if already posted but 4.1m watched ITV'S debate last night. Fairly respectable audience and won the 9pm slot. But a bit down on the 7-8m for the GE debate.

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/740497560519991298

Wales.

SeanT said:

FrankBooth said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

First palpable hit of the Little Englander line

@MrHarryCole: Dominic Raab not happy about being called a Little Englander by the PM: https://t.co/OIs3opv82j

Expect it to be used incessantly from now on

On reflection, if Remain are using lines like 'little Englander' and saturating Canary Wharf with Remain adverts then that tells me they are focussing on motivating and turning out their core vote.

I can't see that approach making much of a difference with undecided voters or middle England.

Which I find interesting.

Yet more playing into the hands of the SNP. Have any prominent IN supporters NOT mentioned Scotland leaving the UK after Brexit? You've already seen Alex Salmond using that one as justification for a second referendum. And post-Brexit Cameron would have to explain why the SNP shouldn't be allowed another referendum since the alternative was to be part of 'little England'.

There won't be a second Scots referendum, any time soon, for the very good reason it would be badly lost, EVEN IF WE BREXIT

I'm sure others have posted this link, but here it is again

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/740497007249358848

FeersumEnjineeya said:

RodCrosby said:

FPT"RodCrosby said:
Puzzle time.

a) I toss a coin 100 times. I find that the longest run of tails is six. Is there anything I can conclude about whether the coin is unbiased or not?

b) I toss a coin a million times. What is the longest run of tails for me to conclude the coin is biased towards tails (or heads)?

You can guess if you like..."

Any more guesses?

I'm not venturing a guess, but I would note that the problem seems akin to that of particle physicists attempting to determine whether a certain distribution of events signifies the existence of a new particle or not. Obviously you can never be absolutely certain that a coin is or isn't biased, so I guess you'd need to define some acceptable level of certainty and then determine the length of a run corresponding to that certainty (edit: which I don't think is a trivial problem).

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

dr_spyn said:

London Evening Standard poll.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/londoners-back-remaining-in-the-eu-by-clear-majority-poll-shows-a3266416.html

57:43 to Remain in London isn't exactly knocking it out the park.

Sadly, a thirty point lead for Remain in Scotland rather takes the shine off the London numbers.

AlastairMeeks said:

Buy buy buy on the SPIN spreads:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/740499336212140033

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, on Top Gear mockery, the last episode had the third lowest viewing figures since Clarkson resurrected it (only lower were one episode each in series 1 and 2), and the Antiques Roadshow that beat it was a repeat

Edited extra bit: in more important news, XCOM 2 is coming to PS4. May wait to see if it's buggy, though. Also, Skyrim may be remastered.

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

FrankBooth said:

I see Rob Hayward is calling it for leave. No idea of his credentials but apparently he was quite good with the GE result last year.

I think a narrow Leave vote and an exit into the EEA, via Parliament vote, may now be a 40% shot.

Yes, I think that is what we are realistically looking at, but I think there will need to be an election before the vote could take place. The government wouldn't be able to pass the vote without a new mandate and probably new PM.

Also, Dave saying yesterday that the EU is a bit shit is preparing the ground for his U-turn should Leave win.

I don't know if I agree with that Max.

Gove/Boris could quit into the EEA and immediately apply the emergency brake for two years. Plus annouce further measures.

That would give them a lot of political cover.

I agree that they might try, but it would be a brave PM who tried to sell it to the public without renewing the government's mandate. If they said it was temporary while we work on a bilateral deal with the EU which includes welfare discrimination, it may just about get through Parliament with UUP/DUP help as Labour, LDs, SNP and 10-20 Cons (and possibly the 4 SF MPs) would all vote against.

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:

@faisalislam: Sky Exc: Electoral Commission is telling authorities to prepare for a Scottish Referendum level of turnout in the EU Referendum "around 80%"

Wow! Buy over 80% at 22 on Betfair. Buy 75-80% at 7

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

FrankBooth said:

I see Rob Hayward is calling it for leave. No idea of his credentials but apparently he was quite good with the GE result last year.

I think a narrow Leave vote and an exit into the EEA, via Parliament vote, may now be a 40% shot.

Yes, I think that is what we are realistically looking at, but I think there will need to be an election before the vote could take place. The government wouldn't be able to pass the vote without a new mandate and probably new PM.

Also, Dave saying yesterday that the EU is a bit shit is preparing the ground for his U-turn should Leave win.

I don't know if I agree with that Max.

Gove/Boris could quit into the EEA and immediately apply the emergency brake for two years. Plus annouce further measures.

That would give them a lot of political cover.

I agree that they might try, but it would be a brave PM who tried to sell it to the public without renewing the government's mandate. If they said it was temporary while we work on a bilateral deal with the EU which includes welfare discrimination, it may just about get through Parliament with UUP/DUP help as Labour, LDs, SNP and 10-20 Cons (and possibly the 4 SF MPs) would all vote against.

Gove/Boris: "Leave only just won. We have to respect the fact the country is divided on this. We are going to try this (the EEA) which preserves full access to the single market, but allows us to quit the political institutions of the EU, the European Court, make our own trade deals and apply a genuine emergency brake, which I can confirm we will apply as of Monday next week. Judge us on our progress at GE2020."

SeanT said:

rottenborough said:

Serious talk of re-opening registration:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36476176

Statement at 12:30 by sounds of it

They could only reopen the site for a few hours, though, surely? As the site only crashed for a few hours, at most.