Editor Mike Smithson provides informed, intelligent analysis on key political events. Whether the outcome of the EU referendum or party leadership contests, this is the blog to go to if you want reasoned debate and, as the name suggests, a focus on political betting opportunities. The fact that Political Betting’s readership is formed largely of non-betters is testament to the quality of the content it produces.
On reflection, if Remain are using lines like 'little Englander' and saturating Canary Wharf with Remain adverts then that tells me they are focussing on motivating and turning out their core vote.
I can't see that approach making much of a difference with undecided voters or middle England.
Editor Mike Smithson provides informed, intelligent analysis on key political events. Whether the outcome of the EU referendum or party leadership contests, this is the blog to go to if you want reasoned debate and, as the name suggests, a focus on political betting opportunities. The fact that Political Betting’s readership is formed largely of non-betters is testament to the quality of the content it produces.
Morning, David. Hillary had in fact conceded by this stage in 2008. Sanders would be wise to follow suit. It's actually hard to see him going through with his threat.
a) I toss a coin 100 times. I find that the longest run of tails is six. Is there anything I can conclude about whether the coin is unbiased or not?
b) I toss a coin a million times. What is the longest run of tails for me to conclude the coin is biased towards tails (or heads)?
You can guess if you like..."
Any more guesses?
a) I would guess no. 2^6 is 64 - which means it's pretty common in a 100 run.
b) If we get 20, we get over the magical 1m number. So I'd reckon 23 or 24 would be the level where I'd suspect a biased coin rather than just chance. Of course, I'd want to look at the total number of tails and not just a single run!
Editor Mike Smithson provides informed, intelligent analysis on key political events. Whether the outcome of the EU referendum or party leadership contests, this is the blog to go to if you want reasoned debate and, as the name suggests, a focus on political betting opportunities. The fact that Political Betting’s readership is formed largely of non-betters is testament to the quality of the content it produces.
The average lead for LEAVE in his spreadsheet is 2.5%. I don't know how that squares with a par result overall.
After Sunderland (LEAVE lead of 6.2%) his cumulative figures gives a lead for REMAIN for the next fifty results until Broxbourne which has a projected LEAVE lead of 26%. LEAVE then goes into the lead cumulatively. It's going to be a roller-coaster night.
You'd need to weight by LA size to get it level, I suspect.
Mr. Midwinter, I appreciate that perspective but hope you reconsider.
[It's not too dissimilar to my own view, but I fall the other side of the fence and simply don't trust the EU].
To be honest Mr Dancer a large part of me wants to vote leave. It would be a lot easier if Leave had a more coherent economic vision for the future. I do feel a loyalty to David Cameron too and with the exception of Gove (despite his performance at Education) can't trust many of the leading Leavers principally as a result of their behaviour during this debate.
On reflection, if Remain are using lines like 'little Englander' and saturating Canary Wharf with Remain adverts then that tells me they are focussing on motivating and turning out their core vote.
I can't see that approach making much of a difference with undecided voters or middle England.
Which I find interesting.
Yet more playing into the hands of the SNP. Have any prominent IN supporters NOT mentioned Scotland leaving the UK after Brexit? You've already seen Alex Salmond using that one as justification for a second referendum. And post-Brexit Cameron would have to explain why the SNP shouldn't be allowed another referendum since the alternative was to be part of 'little England'.
Editor Mike Smithson provides informed, intelligent analysis on key political events. Whether the outcome of the EU referendum or party leadership contests, this is the blog to go to if you want reasoned debate and, as the name suggests, a focus on political betting opportunities. The fact that Political Betting’s readership is formed largely of non-betters is testament to the quality of the content it produces.
a) I toss a coin 100 times. I find that the longest run of tails is six. Is there anything I can conclude about whether the coin is unbiased or not?
b) I toss a coin a million times. What is the longest run of tails for me to conclude the coin is biased towards tails (or heads)?
You can guess if you like..."
Any more guesses?
I'm not venturing a guess, but I would note that the problem seems akin to that of particle physicists attempting to determine whether a certain distribution of events signifies the existence of a new particle or not. Obviously you can never be absolutely certain that a coin is or isn't biased, so I guess you'd need to define some acceptable level of certainty and then determine the length of a run corresponding to that certainty (edit: which I don't think is a trivial problem).
Incidentally, I'll have a new sci-fi short story in the forthcoming Explorations anthology. Quite pleased, as most of the writers are sci-fi specialists picked by the publisher, and I got in via a submission slot. The book will probably be out this year.
Was nice to have William Hague getting air time this morning for Remain. The more we see of affable types who are (relatively) trusted across the board in the final two weeks, taking some of the burden / limelight from Cameron, the better. Alan Johnson was mentioned down thread - a very similar principle.
Cause to regret - an LD figure would also be good, Paddy is all well and good, but as I thought about this post, I got a deep pang of regret that we do not have Charles Kennedy any more, especially a Charles Kennedy at his peak. He would have been great in all this.
Politics is changing.
It's now massively different from the late 1990s, and is rapidly moving on from the Cameron/Osborne era (moulded by Blair) as we speak.
Heseltine, Ashdown, Kinnock and Mandelson aren't going to do much more than preach to the converted.
I agree Kennedy is a loss for Remain. Blair doesn't dare say a word. Major is probably neutral. Gordon Brown might be a mild positive. Ruth Davidson almost certainly is.
But the big beasts of the post-Thatcher era are no more.
If Remain want to win, they need to do it with new faces that look to the future.
Same for Leave.
Major has the right sort of profile overall. But it is too personal for him - every utterance he makes smacks of his ongoing bitterness over 'the bastards'.
Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.
The whole nature of the debate has shifted massively.
Prior to 2005, there wasn't a single Conservative MP openly committed to leaving the EU, now there are over a hundred.
When Hague was Tory leader, the party's European slogan was 'in Europe, not run by Europe' and it's central policy was to rule out membership of the Euro during the next parliament - in other words, to consider it possible post-2005/6. The Lib Dems, IIRC, were in favour; Labour retained an open mind subject to events.
In 2005, UKIP won only 2.2% of the vote - fewer than Goldsmith's Referendum Party in 1997 - and had only recently defeated a Big Three (as they then were) candidate at a by-election for the first time.
Put simply, those whose views haven't changed much in the last ten years have seen them shift either from the fringe to the mainstream or vice versa.
More remarkably, while Hague was campaigning to save the pound (but only for one parliament) Gordon Brown had already saved it with his five tests.
Editor Mike Smithson provides informed, intelligent analysis on key political events. Whether the outcome of the EU referendum or party leadership contests, this is the blog to go to if you want reasoned debate and, as the name suggests, a focus on political betting opportunities. The fact that Political Betting’s readership is formed largely of non-betters is testament to the quality of the content it produces.
...and potentially Sturgeon herself in an election overspend investigation by using a helicopter and not declaring the correct cost.
The referendum campaign is seriously hiding what would have been a huge story about election expenses in 2015, with every major party in up to their neck in it.
We still might get one or two prosecutions, but it's obvious the Electoral Commission need to urgently clarify what's counted as local and national election spending - if they don't change the rules completely for the 2020 General Election.
It's the Tories who are up to their neck in the election expenses story. They used a battlebus to bus in activist to help in specific constituencies. They have used legal means to try to avoid handing over information. They are quite naturally trying to say other parties did the same thing, but it doesn't appear to be working.
Nope, it's not a party political point. Guido has also fingered Nick Clegg, Cat Smith (Labour, possibly the worst offender for failing to declare her own campaign staff) and the SNP (who hired a branded helicopter to get around) as well as the Tories. All parties had battle buses and it seems that they all declared them incorrectly in the same way.
I haven't followed this closely but I don't see how the helicopter, which transported the party leader Nicola Sturgeon plus a couple of aides and had a big picture of Sturgeon on the side would count as local spending.
AIUI there's quite arcane rules about campaigning for a party vs campaigning for a candidate.
So if the occupants of the bus/helo get to a constituency and say "Vote for my party" then the cost of their transport is national expenditure. But if they say "Vote for the great candidate Y in town Z" then a proportion of the costs of the trip should be declared by the candidate as his personal spending.
Of course, in marginals, every candidate wants a minister or senior party member to turn up and say "Vote for the candidate". Very grey area, and the Electoral Commission will have to do something about it before the next election!
Mr. P, didn't read it but there was a good Mash headline about Top Gear's viewing figures being great if you include people walking past Dixon's.
Mr. Eagles, I think we all know that the readership yearns for discussion of the Second Punic War, Byzantium, the Diadochi and F1.
They yearn for my subtle puns and pop culture references.
And trains, young Darth Eagles, the train quotient on this site has collapsed in recent months. Not to mention engineering generally, which has really suffered since Mr. Jessop went MIA. I also think we could do with a bit more medieval history and lots more bashing the Frogs.
I suppose it was inevitable, but recent weeks have been filled with mostly the same small number of people repeating essentially the same points over and over again. Hopefully things will pick up again after the 23rd and we will get back to some diversity in people commenting, views expressed, and topics discussed. Mind you, the post mortem period is going to be ghastly.
Morning, David. Hillary had in fact conceded by this stage in 2008. Sanders would be wise to follow suit. It's actually hard to see him going through with his threat.
Did she? I thought she pushed it all the way to the convention floor.
Whether wise or not, I fully expect Sanders to fight as long as techincally possible unless he gets major concessions on policy. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a full floor vote at the convention. Sanders is not an instinctive or career Democrat and is unlikely to be greatly concerned by any damage such a course would cause.
Mr. Midwinter, I appreciate that perspective but hope you reconsider.
[It's not too dissimilar to my own view, but I fall the other side of the fence and simply don't trust the EU].
To be honest Mr Dancer a large part of me wants to vote leave. It would be a lot easier if Leave had a more coherent economic vision for the future. I do feel a loyalty to David Cameron too and with the exception of Gove (despite his performance at Education) can't trust many of the leading Leavers principally as a result of their behaviour during this debate.
Andrew Lilico was superb on Sky earlier, forensic/figures on tips of his fingers/totally coherent and logical use of EU's own data.
He's chair of Brexit economists and needs to be front and centre a great deal more.
Editor Mike Smithson provides informed, intelligent analysis on key political events. Whether the outcome of the EU referendum or party leadership contests, this is the blog to go to if you want reasoned debate and, as the name suggests, a focus on political betting opportunities. The fact that Political Betting’s readership is formed largely of non-betters is testament to the quality of the content it produces.
Tee, hee. Bernie swears he will continue to fight for the nomination.
Bernie Sanders' decision to stay in the race ensures the Democratic Party remains divided and sets the stage for potential conflict in Philadelphia in July.
He can't win but he vows to keep campaigning until the convention.
This must be Sanders cunning plan to discredit himself and ensure his supporters switch to Clinton.
It's a brilliant plan. The clear loser, who has just been absolutely thumped in Cali, despite claiming the race would be tight, hangs around pointlessly, like the grump in the corner. Meanwhile, Hillary goes on her victory lap, praises him, and looks magnanimous in victory. Advantage DEM.
Given that it's exactly what Hillary did in 2008, she doesn't have much room to criticise. besides, when has Sanders *not* been the grump in the corner?
Not really the same. 1) Democratic nomination in 2008 was quite a bit closer in delegates. 2) Sanders has lost the popular vote by quite a margin (well over 10% at present). Clinton actually beat Obama in the 2008 popular vote.
2008 was closer in candidates but the principle is the same, and while Clinton did beat Obama in the popular vote, that's effectively writing off (or massively downplaying) caucus states. There may be reason to do that - caucuses are stupid undemocratic events - but it's arguing detail.
I see Rob Hayward is calling it for leave. No idea of his credentials but apparently he was quite good with the GE result last year.
I think a narrow Leave vote and an exit into the EEA, via Parliament vote, may now be a 40% shot.
Yes, I think that is what we are realistically looking at, but I think there will need to be an election before the vote could take place. The government wouldn't be able to pass the vote without a new mandate and probably new PM.
Also, Dave saying yesterday that the EU is a bit shit is preparing the ground for his U-turn should Leave win.
I haven't followed this closely but I don't see how the helicopter, which transported the party leader Nicola Sturgeon plus a couple of aides and had a big picture of Sturgeon on the side would count as local spending.
Because she flew into local constituencies to promote local candidates. If the local candidate did not appear with her, you might be right.
Editor Mike Smithson provides informed, intelligent analysis on key political events. Whether the outcome of the EU referendum or party leadership contests, this is the blog to go to if you want reasoned debate and, as the name suggests, a focus on political betting opportunities. The fact that Political Betting’s readership is formed largely of non-betters is testament to the quality of the content it produces.
This website is infinitely better than Guido, Labour List and Wings!
And you should get a hat-tip as deputy ed too, btw.
I find Guido dismal. No idea how they justify its number one status.
The same reason as The Sun is the number one paper, rather the the Guardian or the FT. Guido's web stats have his most popular visitor as being the Houses of Westminster's IP address - everyone in the Village is reading him daily, that's why he's #1.
On the discussion downthread on roads in multiple Boroughs, there are at least two such roads in Greater Manchester: Upper Chorlton Road and Brooklands Road, both of which have one side in Manchester and the other in Trafford.
Bury New Rd runs through Manchester, Salford and Bury.
I see Rob Hayward is calling it for leave. No idea of his credentials but apparently he was quite good with the GE result last year.
I think a narrow Leave vote and an exit into the EEA, via Parliament vote, may now be a 40% shot.
Yes, I think that is what we are realistically looking at, but I think there will need to be an election before the vote could take place. The government wouldn't be able to pass the vote without a new mandate and probably new PM.
Also, Dave saying yesterday that the EU is a bit shit is preparing the ground for his U-turn should Leave win.
I don't know if I agree with that Max.
Gove/Boris could quit into the EEA and immediately apply the emergency brake for two years. Plus annouce further measures.
Morning, David. Hillary had in fact conceded by this stage in 2008. Sanders would be wise to follow suit. It's actually hard to see him going through with his threat.
Did she? I thought she pushed it all the way to the convention floor.
Whether wise or not, I fully expect Sanders to fight as long as techincally possible unless he gets major concessions on policy. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a full floor vote at the convention. Sanders is not an instinctive or career Democrat and is unlikely to be greatly concerned by any damage such a course would cause.
Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.
The polling cross breaks generally tell us that in terms of the referendum Labour has lost the WWC in that what would normally be regarded as core WWC Labour areas are going to be the ones that go more heavily for Leave. So if Sunderland doesn't break significantly for Leave, Leave are sunk.
Labour's decision to campaign very overtly for In is only going to cause some collateral damage post referendum in causing more former Labour WWC voters to abandon the party. In my view it will shift most of these to the disillusioned non-voting "all politicians are the same" camp although a minority will toy with going further and switching to UKIP. What we don't know is how significant that damage will be.
57/43 is not good for Remain in London. Additionally we don't know what kind of turnout filter YouGov are using, they say that half of younh people won't bother to vote and they are the group most on favour of remaining.
Morning, David. Hillary had in fact conceded by this stage in 2008. Sanders would be wise to follow suit. It's actually hard to see him going through with his threat.
Did she? I thought she pushed it all the way to the convention floor.
Whether wise or not, I fully expect Sanders to fight as long as techincally possible unless he gets major concessions on policy. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a full floor vote at the convention. Sanders is not an instinctive or career Democrat and is unlikely to be greatly concerned by any damage such a course would cause.
@JGForsyth: Gove says extremists everywhere will look at Turkey visa-free deal & ‘see that the West is opening its borders to appease an Islamist govt’
57/43 is not good for Remain in London. Additionally we don't know what kind of turnout filter YouGov are using, they say that half of younh people won't bother to vote and they are the group most on favour of remaining.
That's rubbish for REMAIN.
They must have been hoping for 60/40 in London at the very least, maybe 65/35?
At this rate only London, Scotland and Ulster will vote REMAIN, and then REMAIN loses
Sean I have only just worked it out. The denial, anger, confusion. It was troubling me. And then I saw your subliminal message.
Good effort!!
It's OK to remain S'ok to remain s'ok t'remain s'k t'remain S K Tremayne!
Don't know if already posted but 4.1m watched ITV'S debate last night. Fairly respectable audience and won the 9pm slot. But a bit down on the 7-8m for the GE debate.
@faisalislam: Sky Exc: Electoral Commission is telling authorities to prepare for a Scottish Referendum level of turnout in the EU Referendum "around 80%"
57/43 is not good for Remain in London. Additionally we don't know what kind of turnout filter YouGov are using, they say that half of younh people won't bother to vote and they are the group most on favour of remaining.
That's rubbish for REMAIN.
They must have been hoping for 60/40 in London at the very least, maybe 65/35?
At this rate only London, Scotland and Ulster will vote REMAIN, and then REMAIN loses
My assumptions - which give a 0.1% lead for Leave - had Scotland, London, Northern Ireland, and Brits abroad all breaking 60:40 for Remain. And the rest of England and Wales going 53:47 for Leave.
Combining the Scotland and London numbers, and the latest figures for Northern Ireland, suggests we need 54:46, which might be pushing it.
I'd also point of that this is YouGov. If the phone polls are more accurate, and who knows, then the real London result might be 60+% for Remain,
@faisalislam: Sky Exc: Electoral Commission is telling authorities to prepare for a Scottish Referendum level of turnout in the EU Referendum "around 80%"
I would be genuinely suprised.
This number of days out from SIndyRef the atmosphere was absolutely crackling. I am not getting that feel this time round.
Don't know if already posted but 4.1m watched ITV'S debate last night. Fairly respectable audience and won the 9pm slot. But a bit down on the 7-8m for the GE debate.
More than Top Gear then ;-) Now if they only had Let's Make a Deal on...
On reflection, if Remain are using lines like 'little Englander' and saturating Canary Wharf with Remain adverts then that tells me they are focussing on motivating and turning out their core vote.
I can't see that approach making much of a difference with undecided voters or middle England.
Which I find interesting.
Yet more playing into the hands of the SNP. Have any prominent IN supporters NOT mentioned Scotland leaving the UK after Brexit? You've already seen Alex Salmond using that one as justification for a second referendum. And post-Brexit Cameron would have to explain why the SNP shouldn't be allowed another referendum since the alternative was to be part of 'little England'.
There won't be a second Scots referendum, any time soon, for the very good reason it would be badly lost, EVEN IF WE BREXIT
I'm sure others have posted this link, but here it is again
I actually think there will be a swing for "No" if there is a second referendum, oil prices are depressed and the Scottish government is spending money like a drunken sailor at the moment. The people have realised that in the union there is such a thing as a free lunch, why rock the boat.
a) I toss a coin 100 times. I find that the longest run of tails is six. Is there anything I can conclude about whether the coin is unbiased or not?
b) I toss a coin a million times. What is the longest run of tails for me to conclude the coin is biased towards tails (or heads)?
You can guess if you like..."
Any more guesses?
I'm not venturing a guess, but I would note that the problem seems akin to that of particle physicists attempting to determine whether a certain distribution of events signifies the existence of a new particle or not. Obviously you can never be absolutely certain that a coin is or isn't biased, so I guess you'd need to define some acceptable level of certainty and then determine the length of a run corresponding to that certainty (edit: which I don't think is a trivial problem).
I would guess 7 starts getting interesting for 100 and 20 (or 21) assuming 2^x >1000000 - but I can't be bothered to work out A level statistics at the moment.
Morning, David. Hillary had in fact conceded by this stage in 2008. Sanders would be wise to follow suit. It's actually hard to see him going through with his threat.
Did she? I thought she pushed it all the way to the convention floor.
Whether wise or not, I fully expect Sanders to fight as long as techincally possible unless he gets major concessions on policy. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a full floor vote at the convention. Sanders is not an instinctive or career Democrat and is unlikely to be greatly concerned by any damage such a course would cause.
At the end of the day the timing of any further Scottish Independence Referendum is a matter for Westminster, and whilst Nicola Sturgeon and Holyrood might demand one Westminster can polite invite them to go forth and multiply whilst citing the decision of the Scottish electorate in September 2014 on a turnout of 85%. Cameron has already ruled out another vote in this Parliament. He - and other party leaders - should simply say to the SNP et al 'Come back in 20 years and we will think about it'.
Mr. Urquhart, on Top Gear mockery, the last episode had the third lowest viewing figures since Clarkson resurrected it (only lower were one episode each in series 1 and 2), and the Antiques Roadshow that beat it was a repeat
Edited extra bit: in more important news, XCOM 2 is coming to PS4. May wait to see if it's buggy, though. Also, Skyrim may be remastered.
I see Rob Hayward is calling it for leave. No idea of his credentials but apparently he was quite good with the GE result last year.
I think a narrow Leave vote and an exit into the EEA, via Parliament vote, may now be a 40% shot.
Yes, I think that is what we are realistically looking at, but I think there will need to be an election before the vote could take place. The government wouldn't be able to pass the vote without a new mandate and probably new PM.
Also, Dave saying yesterday that the EU is a bit shit is preparing the ground for his U-turn should Leave win.
I don't know if I agree with that Max.
Gove/Boris could quit into the EEA and immediately apply the emergency brake for two years. Plus annouce further measures.
That would give them a lot of political cover.
I agree that they might try, but it would be a brave PM who tried to sell it to the public without renewing the government's mandate. If they said it was temporary while we work on a bilateral deal with the EU which includes welfare discrimination, it may just about get through Parliament with UUP/DUP help as Labour, LDs, SNP and 10-20 Cons (and possibly the 4 SF MPs) would all vote against.
57/43 is not good for Remain in London. Additionally we don't know what kind of turnout filter YouGov are using, they say that half of young people won't bother to vote and they are the group most on favour of remaining.
We know that YouGov are not using a turnout filter (unless they have changed their methodology in this poll). They ask about turnout, but they don't apply the results to the headline figures. If they did apply one, their results would be consistently better for Leave in all their polling. There is more need for a turnout filter in London, because the demographics of the London population is younger, and hence the answer to the question of whether young people will potentially affect the polling more.
The only warning that I would apply to that is that with a turnout filter the YouGov results would then be consistently better for Leave than those of other polling firms generally, so it does come down to which polling company's methodology you trust more generally.
Mr. Urquhart, on Top Gear mockery, the last episode had the third lowest viewing figures since Clarkson resurrected it (only lower were one episode each in series 1 and 2), and the Antiques Roadshow that beat it was a repeat
Edited extra bit: in more important news, XCOM 2 is coming to PS4. May wait to see if it's buggy, though. Also, Skyrim may be remastered.
LOL beaten by an Antiques Roadshow REPEAT...Shouty McShouty Face tells us he is reshaping the way people view telly, clearly, by turning a new audience onto the Antiques Roadshow.
Apparently the ratings in the US are terrible as well. Lost 30-40% of the Clarkson show numbers. So much for make it more PC for the rest of the world market horse shit.
@faisalislam: Sky Exc: Electoral Commission is telling authorities to prepare for a Scottish Referendum level of turnout in the EU Referendum "around 80%"
@faisalislam: Sky Exc: Electoral Commission is telling authorities to prepare for a Scottish Referendum level of turnout in the EU Referendum "around 80%"
Wow! Buy over 80% at 22 on Betfair. Buy 75-80% at 7
For those crunching numbers for Sunlun to extrapolate the first declaration to the result, remember that they will be declaring for the whole City council area, not at a constituency level. (If you've all taken this into account already, soz!)
'Nigel Farage's Little England' made it into PMQs.....this one will run & run.......
While Corbyn's strategy of pointing out Tory splits was sound - he sounded whiney as Cameron did his 'lets rise above this and see where there is consensus'.....
I see Rob Hayward is calling it for leave. No idea of his credentials but apparently he was quite good with the GE result last year.
I think a narrow Leave vote and an exit into the EEA, via Parliament vote, may now be a 40% shot.
Yes, I think that is what we are realistically looking at, but I think there will need to be an election before the vote could take place. The government wouldn't be able to pass the vote without a new mandate and probably new PM.
Also, Dave saying yesterday that the EU is a bit shit is preparing the ground for his U-turn should Leave win.
I don't know if I agree with that Max.
Gove/Boris could quit into the EEA and immediately apply the emergency brake for two years. Plus annouce further measures.
That would give them a lot of political cover.
I agree that they might try, but it would be a brave PM who tried to sell it to the public without renewing the government's mandate. If they said it was temporary while we work on a bilateral deal with the EU which includes welfare discrimination, it may just about get through Parliament with UUP/DUP help as Labour, LDs, SNP and 10-20 Cons (and possibly the 4 SF MPs) would all vote against.
Gove/Boris: "Leave only just won. We have to respect the fact the country is divided on this. We are going to try this (the EEA) which preserves full access to the single market, but allows us to quit the political institutions of the EU, the European Court, make our own trade deals and apply a genuine emergency brake, which I can confirm we will apply as of Monday next week. Judge us on our progress at GE2020."
That's going well then. I saw a headline last night which said the Electoral Commission had a trial run yesterday on the vote counting system and it crashed three times. Sorry cant find it again!!
Anyway bring on Independence Day 23rd June (EU Vote that is)
@faisalislam: Sky Exc: Electoral Commission is telling authorities to prepare for a Scottish Referendum level of turnout in the EU Referendum "around 80%"
Wow! Buy over 80% at 22 on Betfair. Buy 75-80% at 7
Isn't scotland special? As in vast numbers are registered thanks to the indie vote?
That's expensive, just in application fees! As others have said, the easiest way seems to be applying in verious Eastern European countries where civil servants earn only hundreds of euros a month. With a brown envelope.
I see Rob Hayward is calling it for leave. No idea of his credentials but apparently he was quite good with the GE result last year.
I think a narrow Leave vote and an exit into the EEA, via Parliament vote, may now be a 40% shot.
Yes, I think that is what we are realistically looking at, but I think there will need to be an election before the vote could take place. The government wouldn't be able to pass the vote without a new mandate and probably new PM.
Also, Dave saying yesterday that the EU is a bit shit is preparing the ground for his U-turn should Leave win.
I don't know if I agree with that Max.
Gove/Boris could quit into the EEA and immediately apply the emergency brake for two years. Plus annouce further measures.
That would give them a lot of political cover.
I agree that they might try, but it would be a brave PM who tried to sell it to the public without renewing the government's mandate. If they said it was temporary while we work on a bilateral deal with the EU which includes welfare discrimination, it may just about get through Parliament with UUP/DUP help as Labour, LDs, SNP and 10-20 Cons (and possibly the 4 SF MPs) would all vote against.
Gove/Boris: "Leave only just won. We have to respect the fact the country is divided on this. We are going to try this (the EEA) which preserves full access to the single market, but allows us to quit the political institutions of the EU, the European Court, make our own trade deals and apply a genuine emergency brake, which I can confirm we will apply as of Monday next week. Judge us on our progress at GE2020."
Casino_Royale whilst you can see some likelihood of Gove or Boris announcing that, it would render the whole of the campaign entirely disingenuous, as Gove and Boris pledged to get immigration down to the tens of thousands.
Wow, if we're looking at 80+ turnout then it's no wonder that the remain camp are panicking, it means that the WWC have woken up.
I doubt we are looking at 80%. The electoral commission is just covering its arse in case there are any fiascos such as running out of ballot papers etc.
'Nigel Farage's Little England' made it into PMQs.....this one will run & run.......
While Corbyn's strategy of pointing out Tory splits was sound - he sounded whiney as Cameron did his 'lets rise above this and see where there is consensus'.....
"Little England" may run and run but I doubt if it's the killer point that Cameron thinks it is.
WRT turnout, I don't think an unusually high turnout will favour either side. Unusually high turnout among young voters would presumably be matched by unusually high turnout among working class voters.
As is known, I'm likely to vote Leave so I'm not a neutral, but I'm surprised the Little England phrase is being used.
Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to vote Remain, as is London. Parts of England will be firmly Leave, but surely the largest pool of swing voters are in England, and belittling England is hardly likely to either persuade them or convince them the PM has England's interests at heart.
They could only reopen the site for a few hours, though, surely? As the site only crashed for a few hours, at most.
Who knows. What a mess. They'd probably have to announce it was re-open and then be sure people knew it was open. How do they do that and reach the young? Facebook adverts?
Comments
If you just *intend* to invest £2m in the UK, you can get a passport, you don't even have to have it.
Puzzle time.
a) I toss a coin 100 times. I find that the longest run of tails is six. Is there anything I can conclude about whether the coin is unbiased or not?
b) I toss a coin a million times. What is the longest run of tails for me to conclude the coin is biased towards tails (or heads)?
You can guess if you like..."
Any more guesses?
I can't see that approach making much of a difference with undecided voters or middle England.
Which I find interesting.
Morning, David. Hillary had in fact conceded by this stage in 2008. Sanders would be wise to follow suit. It's actually hard to see him going through with his threat.
b) If we get 20, we get over the magical 1m number. So I'd reckon 23 or 24 would be the level where I'd suspect a biased coin rather than just chance. Of course, I'd want to look at the total number of tails and not just a single run!
b) 30 maybe ?
I do feel a loyalty to David Cameron too and with the exception of Gove (despite his performance at Education) can't trust many of the leading Leavers principally as a result of their behaviour during this debate.
Not my perfect outcome, but boy oh boy I'd take that over the EU any day of the week.
Let's do it.
Left Foot Forward is number 4.
At least in part they are just listing PR pages.
Next...
So if the occupants of the bus/helo get to a constituency and say "Vote for my party" then the cost of their transport is national expenditure. But if they say "Vote for the great candidate Y in town Z" then a proportion of the costs of the trip should be declared by the candidate as his personal spending.
Of course, in marginals, every candidate wants a minister or senior party member to turn up and say "Vote for the candidate". Very grey area, and the Electoral Commission will have to do something about it before the next election!
The power is only shifting one way.
I suppose it was inevitable, but recent weeks have been filled with mostly the same small number of people repeating essentially the same points over and over again. Hopefully things will pick up again after the 23rd and we will get back to some diversity in people commenting, views expressed, and topics discussed. Mind you, the post mortem period is going to be ghastly.
Whether wise or not, I fully expect Sanders to fight as long as techincally possible unless he gets major concessions on policy. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a full floor vote at the convention. Sanders is not an instinctive or career Democrat and is unlikely to be greatly concerned by any damage such a course would cause.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/londoners-back-remaining-in-the-eu-by-clear-majority-poll-shows-a3266416.html
He's chair of Brexit economists and needs to be front and centre a great deal more.
Also, Dave saying yesterday that the EU is a bit shit is preparing the ground for his U-turn should Leave win.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/740496476757970944
Gove/Boris could quit into the EEA and immediately apply the emergency brake for two years. Plus annouce further measures.
That would give them a lot of political cover.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=5020581
You guys are the ones worried about loss of sovereignty and accountability, right?
Labour's decision to campaign very overtly for In is only going to cause some collateral damage post referendum in causing more former Labour WWC voters to abandon the party. In my view it will shift most of these to the disillusioned non-voting "all politicians are the same" camp although a minority will toy with going further and switching to UKIP. What we don't know is how significant that damage will be.
Wales.
@JGForsyth: Gove says extremists everywhere will look at Turkey visa-free deal & ‘see that the West is opening its borders to appease an Islamist govt’
Good effort!!
It's OK to remain
S'ok to remain
s'ok t'remain
s'k t'remain
S K Tremayne!
Genius
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/740499336212140033
Combining the Scotland and London numbers, and the latest figures for Northern Ireland, suggests we need 54:46, which might be pushing it.
I'd also point of that this is YouGov. If the phone polls are more accurate, and who knows, then the real London result might be 60+% for Remain,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/08/europhiles-beware-the-voters-youre-relying-on-are-drifting-towar/
This number of days out from SIndyRef the atmosphere was absolutely crackling. I am not getting that feel this time round.
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/politics/2008-08-27-36774207_x.htm
Anyway- let's hope Dems can get together behind Clinton!
20%?
Nah. I expect Scotland to break about 60:40, as I have for some time.
Edited extra bit: in more important news, XCOM 2 is coming to PS4. May wait to see if it's buggy, though. Also, Skyrim may be remastered.
The only warning that I would apply to that is that with a turnout filter the YouGov results would then be consistently better for Leave than those of other polling firms generally, so it does come down to which polling company's methodology you trust more generally.
Why is David Cameron making the Leave campaign's points about workers' rights coming from Parliament not EU? V Odd.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36476176
Statement at 12:30 by sounds of it
Apparently the ratings in the US are terrible as well. Lost 30-40% of the Clarkson show numbers. So much for make it more PC for the rest of the world market horse shit.
Graph of applications 2016 with pre GE applications 2015.
While Corbyn's strategy of pointing out Tory splits was sound - he sounded whiney as Cameron did his 'lets rise above this and see where there is consensus'.....
Anyway bring on Independence Day 23rd June (EU Vote that is)
As others have said, the easiest way seems to be applying in verious Eastern European countries where civil servants earn only hundreds of euros a month. With a brown envelope.
WRT turnout, I don't think an unusually high turnout will favour either side. Unusually high turnout among young voters would presumably be matched by unusually high turnout among working class voters.
Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to vote Remain, as is London. Parts of England will be firmly Leave, but surely the largest pool of swing voters are in England, and belittling England is hardly likely to either persuade them or convince them the PM has England's interests at heart.