Scottish independence is dependent on Scotland being a viable country. At present it just isn't. The GERS figures show that Scotland had a 9% deficit between what is currently spent on public services and what is raised in tax in Scotland. That makes Greece look like Germany.
The last time around we had a white paper from the government of Scotland promising an extra £1000 a head in public spending and a Leave type list of all the things that we could spend it on. Pre-school education was the favourite and a vote for Independence was supposed to be a vote for their future.
This was of course a dishonest fantasy but many people believed it and voted for it. That simply would not happen again. The vast majority appreciate that if Scotland was independent now we would be facing austerity on a scale that would make Osborne shiver.
What the SNP need to do is get on with actually governing, help the Scottish economy to grow in viable ways (less green nonsense that only makes economic sense if it is subsidised by the public purse) and close that gap. If they do then the discussion can no doubt take place again but that is not a 2 year project.
Sturgeon is far from stupid and is acutely aware of this. She will do her best to avoid a referendum that she knows she would lose and which would set independence back for a generation. There is a chance that, Cameron like, she might find herself blocked in and with no choice but to offer a referendum but the odds against that are way more than 5/1. Not a good bet.
Would Scotland not become a net recipient of EU money?
No. Our GDP per head is currently above the EU average and will be even more so when the next tranche of Balkan states are admitted. EU strategic funds will not be diverted from those living in genuine poverty to subsidise those who think they are entitled.
FPT, some perceptive comments on the use of the term "Little Englander" as a perjorative.
Little England is the Chilterns, Wensleydale, the Forest of Dean, Constable Country, rural Devon. Little England is Leighton Buzzard, Tunbridge Wells, Wetherby, Harrogate, Lyme Regis. Little England is actually the heartland of the Conservative Party.
And Cameron has accepted that he cannot win over that heartland.
If he loses the English middle classes, Leave wins.
But, I am yet to be convinced he has.
The middle classes would generally recoil at being labelled Little Englanders (as they are laughed at when they try to order a macchiato on the Channel Islands ferry).
It has a specific meaning, analogous to the definition of too rich always referring to someone with that little bit more money than you, but never you.
What do I have to do to get you on our side? :sad:
Tell him to ditch the Top hat and leave the nineteenth century behind.
Poster using avatar of someone born in nineteenth century tells other poster to leave nineteenth century behind.
@PeterMannionMP: UKIP's Douglas Carswell wheeled onto #R4today to clarify (disentagle himself from) Nigel Farage's views. Oh dear. #EUref #itveuref
@PolhomeEditor: "If you're going to talk about immigration, you need to get the right tone," says UKIP MP Douglas Carswell. He's talking about you, Nigel.
Correct, I can't envisage circumstances where a referendum will take place in this parliament, 33% is a great return if you're prepared to tie the money up for 4 years. I'm not.
Meanwhile it looks as if Hillary is going to win California fairly handily. It would obviously help her if she wins a majority of delegates without the super delegates and that looks likely.
None of the fundamentals have changed for Scotland. In or out if the EU they won't have overcome the basic issues over currency and public spending. The 5/1 is definitely a decent shout, but I'd need a lot more than 10/1 on actual independence.
On topic, the 5/1 on a referendum is more than twice as likely as the 10/1 on the referendum being called (without an SNP majority), agreed to by London, won for Leave and Scottish Independence Day all happening before December 2019.
Isobal Oakeshott, speaking after the debate last night, mentioned that Leave were going to show Cameron talking about Turkey. Interesting to see what that's about.
Isobal Oakeshott, speaking after the debate last night, mentioned that Leave were going to show Cameron talking about Turkey. Interesting to see what that's about.
Pienaar: "MP after MP has returned to Westminster with depressing tales from their home turf; of door-knocking in staunchly Labour areas where apathy towards the EU question has given way to rank hostility. One former minister contacted dozens of local Labour councillors urging them to mobilise behind the Remain campaign. To the MP's fury, the appeal elicited one single reply."
This really is slipping away from Remain.
Why the hell isn't Alan Johnson on our TV screens every five minutes urging Labour voters to get a grip of themselves instead of the Corbyn and Watson roadshow?
We hear a lot about Leavers being terribly irrational and emotional, but if you look at the two campaigns, I think you see a lot more appeals to emotion from Remain. Usually I'd have said this is a good strategy, provided it's done well. But I wonder if this is more of a fact-hungry scenario than a general election. Perhaps 'Stronger and safer in' is just washing off people, and they're thirsty for information, even if Farage is delivering it. That favours Leave.
None of the fundamentals have changed for Scotland. In or out if the EU they won't have overcome the basic issues over currency and public spending. The 5/1 is definitely a decent shout, but I'd need a lot more than 10/1 on actual independence.
* And the fact the oil prices is less than half where it was last time they had a referendum.
Why the hell isn't Alan Johnson on our TV screens every five minutes urging Labour voters to get a grip of themselves instead of the Corbyn and Watson roadshow?
The Postie is a busted flush. He didn't even do the Andrew Neil interview.
Pienaar: "MP after MP has returned to Westminster with depressing tales from their home turf; of door-knocking in staunchly Labour areas where apathy towards the EU question has given way to rank hostility. One former minister contacted dozens of local Labour councillors urging them to mobilise behind the Remain campaign. To the MP's fury, the appeal elicited one single reply."
This really is slipping away from Remain.
Why the hell isn't Alan Johnson on our TV screens every five minutes urging Labour voters to get a grip of themselves instead of the Corbyn and Watson roadshow?
The mood music certainly doesn't suggest that Remain are confident of winning this.
Isobal Oakeshott, speaking after the debate last night, mentioned that Leave were going to show Cameron talking about Turkey. Interesting to see what that's about.
Meanwhile it looks as if Hillary is going to win California fairly handily. It would obviously help her if she wins a majority of delegates without the super delegates and that looks likely.
Yes. And it's going to be refreshing change to focus back on POTUS betting once the bloody Referendum is out of the way :-)
Scottish independence is dependent on Scotland being a viable country. At present it just isn't. The GERS figures show that Scotland had a 9% deficit between what is currently spent on public services and what is raised in tax in Scotland. That makes Greece look like Germany.
The last time around we had a white paper from the government of Scotland promising an extra £1000 a head in public spending and a Leave type list of all the things that we could spend it on. Pre-school education was the favourite and a vote for Independence was supposed to be a vote for their future.
This was of course a dishonest fantasy but many people believed it and voted for it. That simply would not happen again. The vast majority appreciate that if Scotland was independent now we would be facing austerity on a scale that would make Osborne shiver.
What the SNP need to do is get on with actually governing, help the Scottish economy to grow in viable ways (less green nonsense that only makes economic sense if it is subsidised by the public purse) and close that gap. If they do then the discussion can no doubt take place again but that is not a 2 year project.
Sturgeon is far from stupid and is acutely aware of this. She will do her best to avoid a referendum that she knows she would lose and which would set independence back for a generation. There is a chance that, Cameron like, she might find herself blocked in and with no choice but to offer a referendum but the odds against that are way more than 5/1. Not a good bet.
Would Scotland not become a net recipient of EU money?
No. Our GDP per head is currently above the EU average and will be even more so when the next tranche of Balkan states are admitted. EU strategic funds will not be diverted from those living in genuine poverty to subsidise those who think they are entitled.
(Although those states are very small, so they won't affect the GDP per head of the EU meaningfully. If both the Scottish currency - let's call it the Floon - and the price of oil were weak, it's entirely possible it could fall below the EU average.)
Pienaar: "MP after MP has returned to Westminster with depressing tales from their home turf; of door-knocking in staunchly Labour areas where apathy towards the EU question has given way to rank hostility. One former minister contacted dozens of local Labour councillors urging them to mobilise behind the Remain campaign. To the MP's fury, the appeal elicited one single reply."
This really is slipping away from Remain.
Why the hell isn't Alan Johnson on our TV screens every five minutes urging Labour voters to get a grip of themselves instead of the Corbyn and Watson roadshow?
Because the enemy is tearing itself apart, Labour don't care about the EU.
Isobal Oakeshott, speaking after the debate last night, mentioned that Leave were going to show Cameron talking about Turkey. Interesting to see what that's about.
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
None of the fundamentals have changed for Scotland. In or out if the EU they won't have overcome the basic issues over currency and public spending. The 5/1 is definitely a decent shout, but I'd need a lot more than 10/1 on actual independence.
* And the fact the oil prices is less than half where it was last time they had a referendum.
Scottish independence is dependent on Scotland being a viable country. At present it just isn't. The GERS figures show that Scotland had a 9% deficit between what is currently spent on public services and what is raised in tax in Scotland. That makes Greece look like Germany.
The last time around we had a white paper from the government of Scotland promising an extra £1000 a head in public spending and a Leave type list of all the things that we could spend it on. Pre-school education was the favourite and a vote for Independence was supposed to be a vote for their future.
This was of course a dishonest fantasy but many people believed it and voted for it. That simply would not happen again. The vast majority appreciate that if Scotland was independent now we would be facing austerity on a scale that would make Osborne shiver.
What the SNP need to do is get on with actually governing, help the Scottish economy to grow in viable ways (less green nonsense that only makes economic sense if it is subsidised by the public purse) and close that gap. If they do then the discussion can no doubt take place again but that is not a 2 year project.
Sturgeon is far from stupid and is acutely aware of this. She will do her best to avoid a referendum that she knows she would lose and which would set independence back for a generation. There is a chance that, Cameron like, she might find herself blocked in and with no choice but to offer a referendum but the odds against that are way more than 5/1. Not a good bet.
The 9% number makes Scotland's economy look healthier than it is. That's a *primary* budget deficit, i.e. before any interest payments. If you just assume that Scotland will pay the same percentage of GDP as the UK in interest payments, it would be 12%.*
* In reality, Scotland would have to pay more than that. As Spain and Greece showed during the Eurozone crisis: big budget deficit equals expensive debt.
Sorry TSE, the wheels are coming off the SNP's wagon faster than the New Christie Minstrels can sing. Today, we have the Named Person debate, instigated by Ruth Davidson no less, which seriously is endangering the entire process. Police Scotland underfunded, NHS, Education, farmers CAP payments delayed, new Forth bridge (Queensferry Crossing) opening delayed.
Of course it doesn't help that Sturgeon has surrounded herself with old friends and cronies, who, with the best will in the world, would only be described as just incompetent. Of course having 2 of your MP's involved in a three some doesn't help stop the hilarity, another one having her house raided by the Police with yet another charge being made, yet another facing serious prison time for fraud and potentially Sturgeon herself in an election overspend investigation by using a helicopter and not declaring the correct cost.
And then, the £10 billion biggie, the Mutual Understanding with a Chinese company accused of fraud and corruption in other countries, which Sturgeon signed days before the purdah prior to the election, which contrary to previous practices by the SNP media machine, was kept under wraps and was only discovered by accident. Only now is information being dragged out of the administration that discussions had been going on, in secret, for over a year, with a major SNP benefactor seriously involved with the potential of him making serious profits, which brings us nicely back to wagons and stagecoaches.
Surprise surprise, all of these people who have had months to register to vote wait until the last few minutes, crash the website and then take to social media to complain about it. But it isn't their fault.
Even funnier the "experts" who know about websites, didn't see it coming.
I have sat in far too many rooms, with far too many IT experts, far too many times saying that this new website, app or upgrade is foolproof or uncrashable.
Interestingly, the architects are almost always less confident/more realistic.
"We can design a system that is proof against carelessness or stupidity, but not one that is proof against determination to break it." - AC Clarke 2001- A Space Odyssey. (or words to that effect)
Scottish independence is dependent on Scotland being a viable country. At present it just isn't. The GERS figures show that Scotland had a 9% deficit between what is currently spent on public services and what is raised in tax in Scotland. That makes Greece look like Germany.
The last time around we had a white paper from the government of Scotland promising an extra £1000 a head in public spending and a Leave type list of all the things that we could spend it on. Pre-school education was the favourite and a vote for Independence was supposed to be a vote for their future.
This was of course a dishonest fantasy but many people believed it and voted for it. That simply would not happen again. The vast majority appreciate that if Scotland was independent now we would be facing austerity on a scale that would make Osborne shiver.
What the SNP need to do is get on with actually governing, help the Scottish economy to grow in viable ways (less green nonsense that only makes economic sense if it is subsidised by the public purse) and close that gap. If they do then the discussion can no doubt take place again but that is not a 2 year project.
Sturgeon is far from stupid and is acutely aware of this. She will do her best to avoid a referendum that she knows she would lose and which would set independence back for a generation. There is a chance that, Cameron like, she might find herself blocked in and with no choice but to offer a referendum but the odds against that are way more than 5/1. Not a good bet.
The 9% number makes Scotland's economy look healthier than it is. That's a *primary* budget deficit, i.e. before any interest payments. If you just assume that Scotland will pay the same percentage of GDP as the UK in interest payments, it would be 12%.*
* In reality, Scotland would have to pay more than that. As Spain and Greece showed during the Eurozone crisis: big budget deficit equals expensive debt.
Pretty sure there were some learned Nats on here informing us that all the debt was actually English!
Pienaar: "MP after MP has returned to Westminster with depressing tales from their home turf; of door-knocking in staunchly Labour areas where apathy towards the EU question has given way to rank hostility. One former minister contacted dozens of local Labour councillors urging them to mobilise behind the Remain campaign. To the MP's fury, the appeal elicited one single reply."
This really is slipping away from Remain.
Why the hell isn't Alan Johnson on our TV screens every five minutes urging Labour voters to get a grip of themselves instead of the Corbyn and Watson roadshow?
Because the enemy is tearing itself apart, Labour don't care about the EU.
Why the hell isn't Alan Johnson on our TV screens every five minutes urging Labour voters to get a grip of themselves instead of the Corbyn and Watson roadshow?
The Postie is a busted flush. He didn't even do the Andrew Neil interview.
Corbyn has played a blinder IMHO. He wants a Leave vote and has done all his political life. But he has made JUST enough sotto voce remain noises to keep the mob off his back and JUST enough to facilitate Labour voters to vote Leave.
Labour / lefty voters are the key to the outcome - which is why Dave has been getting funky with Khan, Harman and his natural bedfellows. Vote Leave should ask the RMT to make a big speech about leaving - they are a large, credible, lefty and formally supporting Leave union. Would make it less of a Blue on Blue affair and cement the case for a reasoned, moral, lefty approach to getting the hell out of Dodge.
Scottish independence is dependent on Scotland being a viable country. At present it just isn't. The GERS figures show that Scotland had a 9% deficit between what is currently spent on public services and what is raised in tax in Scotland. That makes Greece look like Germany.
The last time around we had a white paper from the government of Scotland promising an extra £1000 a head in public spending and a Leave type list of all the things that we could spend it on. Pre-school education was the favourite and a vote for Independence was supposed to be a vote for their future.
This was of course a dishonest fantasy but many people believed it and voted for it. That simply would not happen again. The vast majority appreciate that if Scotland was independent now we would be facing austerity on a scale that would make Osborne shiver.
What the SNP need to do is get on with actually governing, help the Scottish economy to grow in viable ways (less green nonsense that only makes economic sense if it is subsidised by the public purse) and close that gap. If they do then the discussion can no doubt take place again but that is not a 2 year project.
Sturgeon is far from stupid and is acutely aware of this. She will do her best to avoid a referendum that she knows she would lose and which would set independence back for a generation. There is a chance that, Cameron like, she might find herself blocked in and with no choice but to offer a referendum but the odds against that are way more than 5/1. Not a good bet.
The 9% number makes Scotland's economy look healthier than it is. That's a *primary* budget deficit, i.e. before any interest payments. If you just assume that Scotland will pay the same percentage of GDP as the UK in interest payments, it would be 12%.*
* In reality, Scotland would have to pay more than that. As Spain and Greece showed during the Eurozone crisis: big budget deficit equals expensive debt.
I know but in la-la land Scotland was supposed to be walking away from UK debt. No consequences in that of course.
Pienaar: "MP after MP has returned to Westminster with depressing tales from their home turf; of door-knocking in staunchly Labour areas where apathy towards the EU question has given way to rank hostility. One former minister contacted dozens of local Labour councillors urging them to mobilise behind the Remain campaign. To the MP's fury, the appeal elicited one single reply."
This really is slipping away from Remain.
Why the hell isn't Alan Johnson on our TV screens every five minutes urging Labour voters to get a grip of themselves instead of the Corbyn and Watson roadshow?
Because the enemy is tearing itself apart, Labour don't care about the EU.
Corbyn is doing a great job sitting on the fence
There seem to be only half a dozen passionate Labour supporters of either side, and a huge disconnect between the Pro-EU Labour elites and the traditional WWC Labour voter.
Will those outside London supporting Remain in a lukewarm way, turn out? This question is the key to this referendum. I'm not sure they will, more interested in football and beer gardens on a nice summer's day.
Corbyn is doing a fantastic job of fence-sitting, long may it continue.
For all Salmond and Sturgeon's comments, an independent Scotland within the EU but with rUK out would be a far bigger risk than with rUK in, even more so if the UK had decided to exit the EEA too. It really would mean tariffs at Berwick and Carlisle and very real restrictions on trade and movement between England (and N Ireland) and Scotland. That would hurt rUK, but nothing like as much as Scotland.
Furthermore, the arguments about whether Scotland would retain grandfather rights to the UK's treaty advantages would be over: there would be no grandfathered rights and Scotland would be joining as a new country and signed up to the Euro and everything else.
With oil - the driving force behind independence - no longer the cash cow it was once perceived to be, a precipitate second referendum on the European question (when a substantial minority within Scotland favour Leave anyway), could kill the question for twenty years.
Surely if the EU chose to allow Scotland the same opt outs as the UK then they could.
Why would a non-EU to EU border be more problematic Scotland/England than Ireland/NI?
It wouldn't, except that there's probably more traffic. But yes, that border too may end up being problematic.
I don't see any reasons why the EU would offer Scotland the UK's current opt-outs. Pressure from members with their own seccessionist regions will ensure that Scotland would get no special favours.
Which of course assumes Scotland (yes, Spain, I'm looking at you) gets in at all.....
It'd get in if it asked nicely but it'd get no special favours and it certainly wouldn't get continued membership. With Britain having already left, it'd also almost certainly have to wait until independence before negotiations could begin; indeed, in all probability, before it could even have any application recognised as legitimate.
Scottish independence is dependent on Scotland being a viable country. At present it just isn't. The GERS figures show that Scotland had a 9% deficit between what is currently spent on public services and what is raised in tax in Scotland. That makes Greece look like Germany.
The last time around we had a white paper from the government of Scotland promising an extra £1000 a head in public spending and a Leave type list of all the things that we could spend it on. Pre-school education was the favourite and a vote for Independence was supposed to be a vote for their future.
This was of course a dishonest fantasy but many people believed it and voted for it. That simply would not happen again. The vast majority appreciate that if Scotland was independent now we would be facing austerity on a scale that would make Osborne shiver.
What the SNP need to do is get on with actually governing, help the Scottish economy to grow in viable ways (less green nonsense that only makes economic sense if it is subsidised by the public purse) and close that gap. If they do then the discussion can no doubt take place again but that is not a 2 year project.
Sturgeon is far from stupid and is acutely aware of this. She will do her best to avoid a referendum that she knows she would lose and which would set independence back for a generation. There is a chance that, Cameron like, she might find herself blocked in and with no choice but to offer a referendum but the odds against that are way more than 5/1. Not a good bet.
The 9% number makes Scotland's economy look healthier than it is. That's a *primary* budget deficit, i.e. before any interest payments. If you just assume that Scotland will pay the same percentage of GDP as the UK in interest payments, it would be 12%.*
* In reality, Scotland would have to pay more than that. As Spain and Greece showed during the Eurozone crisis: big budget deficit equals expensive debt.
I know but in la-la land Scotland was supposed to be walking away from UK debt. No consequences in that of course.
I remember that. It was like trying to argue with a brick wall.
Pienaar: "MP after MP has returned to Westminster with depressing tales from their home turf; of door-knocking in staunchly Labour areas where apathy towards the EU question has given way to rank hostility. One former minister contacted dozens of local Labour councillors urging them to mobilise behind the Remain campaign. To the MP's fury, the appeal elicited one single reply."
This really is slipping away from Remain.
Why the hell isn't Alan Johnson on our TV screens every five minutes urging Labour voters to get a grip of themselves instead of the Corbyn and Watson roadshow?
Because the enemy is tearing itself apart, Labour don't care about the EU.
Corbyn is doing a great job sitting on the fence
Corbyn has nothing to lose by sitting this one out. Even the pro-EU majority of Labour voters don't seem very strongly committed to the cause.
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
Does anyone know what happens with votes from overeseas? Will they be counted separately or do they get added to the count where the person was last registered to vote? It would be interesting to see the split for these votes.
Isobal Oakeshott, speaking after the debate last night, mentioned that Leave were going to show Cameron talking about Turkey. Interesting to see what that's about.
It's been showing up in an ad on youtube for two days now.
Cameron advocating for Turkey interspersed with video of their parliamentarians engaged in a brawl last month.
Does anyone know what happens with votes from overeseas? Will they be counted separately or do they get added to the count where the person was last registered to vote? It would be interesting to see the split for these votes.
You are registered at your last address in the UK.
Scottish independence is dependent on Scotland being a viable country. At present it just isn't. The GERS figures show that Scotland had a 9% deficit between what is currently spent on public services and what is raised in tax in Scotland. That makes Greece look like Germany.
The last time around we had a white paper from the government of Scotland promising an extra £1000 a head in public spending and a Leave type list of all the things that we could spend it on. Pre-school education was the favourite and a vote for Independence was supposed to be a vote for their future.
This was of course a dishonest fantasy but many people believed it and voted for it. That simply would not happen again. The vast majority appreciate that if Scotland was independent now we would be facing austerity on a scale that would make Osborne shiver.
What the SNP need to do is get on with actually governing, help the Scottish economy to grow in viable ways (less green nonsense that only makes economic sense if it is subsidised by the public purse) and close that gap. If they do then the discussion can no doubt take place again but that is not a 2 year project.
Sturgeon is far from stupid and is acutely aware of this. She will do her best to avoid a referendum that she knows she would lose and which would set independence back for a generation. There is a chance that, Cameron like, she might find herself blocked in and with no choice but to offer a referendum but the odds against that are way more than 5/1. Not a good bet.
The 9% number makes Scotland's economy look healthier than it is. That's a *primary* budget deficit, i.e. before any interest payments. If you just assume that Scotland will pay the same percentage of GDP as the UK in interest payments, it would be 12%.*
* In reality, Scotland would have to pay more than that. As Spain and Greece showed during the Eurozone crisis: big budget deficit equals expensive debt.
Pretty sure there were some learned Nats on here informing us that all the debt was actually English!
Even if we assume that Scotland took none of the historic debt of the UK, you'd have to reckon that it would need to be responsible for its own funding from the day of the independence vote. So, the Republic/Kingdom of Scotland would need to start issuing debt to pay for its 9% budget deficit, plus the costs of implementation of an independent Scotland. Over a three year period, it's hard not to see that approaching 50% of GDP.
Scottish independence is dependent on Scotland being a viable country. At present it just isn't. The GERS figures show that Scotland had a 9% deficit between what is currently spent on public services and what is raised in tax in Scotland. That makes Greece look like Germany.
The last time around we had a white paper from the government of Scotland promising an extra £1000 a head in public spending and a Leave type list of all the things that we could spend it on. Pre-school education was the favourite and a vote for Independence was supposed to be a vote for their future.
This was of course a dishonest fantasy but many people believed it and voted for it. That simply would not happen again. The vast majority appreciate that if Scotland was independent now we would be facing austerity on a scale that would make Osborne shiver.
What the SNP need to do is get on with actually governing, help the Scottish economy to grow in viable ways (less green nonsense that only makes economic sense if it is subsidised by the public purse) and close that gap. If they do then the discussion can no doubt take place again but that is not a 2 year project.
Sturgeon is far from stupid and is acutely aware of this. She will do her best to avoid a referendum that she knows she would lose and which would set independence back for a generation. There is a chance that, Cameron like, she might find herself blocked in and with no choice but to offer a referendum but the odds against that are way more than 5/1. Not a good bet.
Scotland could certainly be a viable country. What it couldn't be, as you say, is a viable country with its current rates of taxation and spending (never mind with more spending or less tax).
...and potentially Sturgeon herself in an election overspend investigation by using a helicopter and not declaring the correct cost.
The referendum campaign is seriously hiding what would have been a huge story about election expenses in 2015, with every major party in up to their neck in it.
We still might get one or two prosecutions, but it's obvious the Electoral Commission need to urgently clarify what's counted as local and national election spending - if they don't change the rules completely for the 2020 General Election.
Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
A Scots friend told me "when Scotland went independent the EU would give them money, they would have to because Scotland was too small to manage on its own". He wasn't smiling as he said it...
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.
That's a very interesting analysis, with one caveat: Northern Ireland, overseas voters, London and Scotland are all likely to be much more pro-EU than England.
If Leave is above 52-53%, I'd begin to get excited. But I think 50/50 would be pointing to a Remain win.
Does anyone know what happens with votes from overeseas? Will they be counted separately or do they get added to the count where the person was last registered to vote? It would be interesting to see the split for these votes.
You're registered to vote in the same area (Parliamentary constituency) you lived in before you left the country. I've never seen a split out of overseas votes, so my guess is that they are counted with all the other postal votes as they arrive at the council office over the next couple of weeks.
I think most overseas votes will be distinguishable by the DHL and Aramex bags they arrive in, most expats don't trust international postal systems to be anywhere close to timely.
...and potentially Sturgeon herself in an election overspend investigation by using a helicopter and not declaring the correct cost.
The referendum campaign is seriously hiding what would have been a huge story about election expenses in 2015, with every major party in up to their neck in it.
We still might get one or two prosecutions, but it's obvious the Electoral Commission need to urgently clarify what's counted as local and national election spending - if they don't change the rules completely for the 2020 General Election.
Nothing is going to happen about the 2015 election but we undoubtedly need clearer and better rules the next time around. Oh, and boundaries that are not 20 years out of date as well.
Does anyone know what happens with votes from overeseas? Will they be counted separately or do they get added to the count where the person was last registered to vote? It would be interesting to see the split for these votes.
You're registered to vote in the same area (Parliamentary constituency) you lived in before you left the country. I've never seen a split out of overseas votes, so my guess is that they are counted with all the other postal votes as they arrive at the council office over the next couple of weeks.
I suppose from Leave's POV that is a good thing. It's one less block of voters who can claim they are being forced to do something against their will.
Meanwhile it looks as if Hillary is going to win California fairly handily. It would obviously help her if she wins a majority of delegates without the super delegates and that looks likely.
Hillary won't (indeed, can't) win an outright majority based solely on pledged delegates but she will have a healthy lead in them, and an even more healthy lead in the popular vote.
She'll probably end up with a lead in pledged delegates of 400 or so; there are 719 unpledged delegates.
Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.
That's a very interesting analysis, with one caveat: Northern Ireland, overseas voters, London and Scotland are all likely to be much more pro-EU than England.
If Leave is above 52-53%, I'd begin to get excited. But I think 50/50 would be pointing to a Remain win.
I agree. Leave would need to be winning places like Sunderland by at least 3% to offset London and Scotland. (I have a slight suspicion that Alastair Meeks for one is looking very likely to vote remain.)
Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.
That's a very interesting analysis, with one caveat: Northern Ireland, overseas voters, London and Scotland are all likely to be much more pro-EU than England.
If Leave is above 52-53%, I'd begin to get excited. But I think 50/50 would be pointing to a Remain win.
But as a percentage does it matter for Norther Ireland? N. Ireland population is 1.8 million - which is a tiny %ge,
Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.
If the SNP wants Scotland to be independent then that is entirely within their control. Run a budget surplus, quit giving away sweets and goodies and then demonstrate that Scotland can within its means.
Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.
That's a very interesting analysis, with one caveat: Northern Ireland, overseas voters, London and Scotland are all likely to be much more pro-EU than England.
If Leave is above 52-53%, I'd begin to get excited. But I think 50/50 would be pointing to a Remain win.
I hadn't realised the centre right vote vote was so big in Sunderland. Given that it's North East, working class, very White, and not a core city, I think that both the Conservative and Labour votes will be more skewed to Leave than they are in the country as a whole. I think Leave would need to be on about 55% here, to be ahead overall.
Mr. Chestnut, including London would that be circa 52-48? [That's a figure someone else here suggested England would need for Leave to be odds on].
Disappointing to read there was apparently a plant in the ITV audience. Didn't recall similar allegations about Sky (and that was a rather feisty lot).
...and potentially Sturgeon herself in an election overspend investigation by using a helicopter and not declaring the correct cost.
The referendum campaign is seriously hiding what would have been a huge story about election expenses in 2015, with every major party in up to their neck in it.
We still might get one or two prosecutions, but it's obvious the Electoral Commission need to urgently clarify what's counted as local and national election spending - if they don't change the rules completely for the 2020 General Election.
Nothing is going to happen about the 2015 election but we undoubtedly need clearer and better rules the next time around. Oh, and boundaries that are not 20 years out of date as well.
Yes, that as well - although it's quite possible that an early GE gets fought on the old boundaries.
That nice man Shadsy is still offering 10/1 on a GE in each of 2016, 2017 and 2018. Reasonable odds given the Government has almost no majority, the PM has already said he will resign at some point this Parliament, and the small matter of the referendum fallout.
Scotland could certainly be a viable country. What it couldn't be, as you say, is a viable country with its current rates of taxation and spending (never mind with more spending or less tax).
Quite. Scotland can have independence or it can have socialism, but not both.
Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.
That's a very interesting analysis, with one caveat: Northern Ireland, overseas voters, London and Scotland are all likely to be much more pro-EU than England.
If Leave is above 52-53%, I'd begin to get excited. But I think 50/50 would be pointing to a Remain win.
But as a percentage does it matter for Norther Ireland? N. Ireland population is 1.8 million - which is a tiny %ge,
Northern Ireland (1.8) + Scotland (5.3) + overseas (1.5) + London (8.5) = 16m, which is a larger number
Mr. Chestnut, including London would that be circa 52-48? [That's a figure someone else here suggested England would need for Leave to be odds on].
Disappointing to read there was apparently a plant in the ITV audience. Didn't recall similar allegations about Sky (and that was a rather feisty lot).
I agree that 52% in England is the critical figure for Leave.
When Vote Leave gave their private polling numbers to Sky, they had Leave on 51% in England, giving 49.6% overall.
Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.
That's a very interesting analysis, with one caveat: Northern Ireland, overseas voters, London and Scotland are all likely to be much more pro-EU than England.
If Leave is above 52-53%, I'd begin to get excited. But I think 50/50 would be pointing to a Remain win.
But as a percentage does it matter for Norther Ireland? N. Ireland population is 1.8 million - which is a tiny %ge,
Northern Ireland (1.8) + Scotland (5.3) + overseas (1.5) + London (8.5) = 16m, which is a larger number
Actual votes last year were about 7.2m in Scotland/NI/London.
Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.
That's a very interesting analysis, with one caveat: Northern Ireland, overseas voters, London and Scotland are all likely to be much more pro-EU than England.
If Leave is above 52-53%, I'd begin to get excited. But I think 50/50 would be pointing to a Remain win.
But as a percentage does it matter for Norther Ireland? N. Ireland population is 1.8 million - which is a tiny %ge,
Northern Ireland (1.8) + Scotland (5.3) + overseas (1.5) + London (8.5) = 16m, which is a larger number
Actual votes last year were about 7.2m in Scotland/NI/London.
The rest of England and Wales is about 23.5m.
So, if one third of the electorate is voting 6:4 for Remain, them we need big leads in the other two thirds.
Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.
Rubbish these people who are wailing now had months to get on the voting register, if they were ever interested in voting in the first place.
On the last thread, I posted the graphs from Times Red Box debate polling - and Farage led by quite a margin. Anyone know if it was weighted or just anyone online?
Red Box say that 80% of the 2500 people who signed up declared themselves as pro-Brexit before the debate, so not weighted. However, they add:
"Farage was notably more popular with his supporters than the PM. Overall, he had an average rating of 94 per cent among Leavers, 15 per cent among Remainers and 63 per cent among Undecideds.
Cameron managed only 86 per cent among Remainers - who are on his side - with 29 per cent among Undecideds and just 4 per cent with Leavers."
As both politicians have people who agree with them on this but don't like them in other ways, I wouldn't put too much weight on this, but it suggests that people who declared themselves (hmm) to be undecided at the start liked Farage more.
Pienaar: "MP after MP has returned to Westminster with depressing tales from their home turf; of door-knocking in staunchly Labour areas where apathy towards the EU question has given way to rank hostility. One former minister contacted dozens of local Labour councillors urging them to mobilise behind the Remain campaign. To the MP's fury, the appeal elicited one single reply."
This really is slipping away from Remain.
Why the hell isn't Alan Johnson on our TV screens every five minutes urging Labour voters to get a grip of themselves instead of the Corbyn and Watson roadshow?
Because he (and evveryone else) doesn't get to decide when he's on TV. The channels invite whom they choose to invite.
I do think that the debate schedule is light on Labour people, and wonder how the channels square that with the purdash requirement for political neutrality. Of course it's more exciting to have Cameron (vote Leave and World War 3 will follow) vs Farage (vote Remain and a lot of foreigners will rape you) than Corbyn or Johnson (the EU isn't great but better on balance), but the broadcasters aren't supposed to be only about excitement.
Mr. Chestnut, including London would that be circa 52-48? [That's a figure someone else here suggested England would need for Leave to be odds on].
Disappointing to read there was apparently a plant in the ITV audience. Didn't recall similar allegations about Sky (and that was a rather feisty lot).
I agree that 52% in England is the critical figure for Leave.
When Vote Leave gave their private polling numbers to Sky, they had Leave on 51% in England, giving 49.6% overall.
How do you know that?
Didn't realise they'd released those figures. Not sure it's wise to either.
...and potentially Sturgeon herself in an election overspend investigation by using a helicopter and not declaring the correct cost.
The referendum campaign is seriously hiding what would have been a huge story about election expenses in 2015, with every major party in up to their neck in it.
We still might get one or two prosecutions, but it's obvious the Electoral Commission need to urgently clarify what's counted as local and national election spending - if they don't change the rules completely for the 2020 General Election.
One person makes a mistake and they're guilty. Every single person makes a mistake and there is a systemic error.
I blame the Electoral Commission. If they've not been clear then it's no surprise this has happened. Besides it's not like there was an attempt to mislead all this was declared by all the relevant parties.
I think the best way to resolve it is to set the rules on material/marketing expenses (eg billboards, mail shots) but exclude people related expenses eg buses etc ... more human contact is a good thing and shouldn't be capped.
Mr. Chestnut, including London would that be circa 52-48? [That's a figure someone else here suggested England would need for Leave to be odds on].
Disappointing to read there was apparently a plant in the ITV audience. Didn't recall similar allegations about Sky (and that was a rather feisty lot).
Pienaar: "MP after MP has returned to Westminster with depressing tales from their home turf; of door-knocking in staunchly Labour areas where apathy towards the EU question has given way to rank hostility. One former minister contacted dozens of local Labour councillors urging them to mobilise behind the Remain campaign. To the MP's fury, the appeal elicited one single reply."
This really is slipping away from Remain.
Why the hell isn't Alan Johnson on our TV screens every five minutes urging Labour voters to get a grip of themselves instead of the Corbyn and Watson roadshow?
In fairness I saw him on the new last week down in Cornwall with a load of Labour Remain folk. Problem was, from the TV clip, it pointedly looked like the only people listening to him as he spoke, were the same people he'd brought with him on the bus to hold placards in a semi circle round him, and there was some local haranging some Labour Remain chap inviting him in salty language to return to Islington "'cos we're Cornish fisherman".
You have to feel for politicians of all stripes who have to do this thankless nonsense just for 30 secs on "points South West" or whatever the local TV is called.
Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.
Rubbish these people who are wailing now had months to get on the voting register, if they were ever interested in voting in the first place.
Doesn't matter, if the rules state they have until midnight on the 7th to register then they should be able to register up until that time.
"Less riskier"?!? Tsk, tsk, tsk. Shows how important a return to teaching formal grammar is. It's pretty much certain that there's an error in this post now, isn't it...
Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.
Yeah, I know, and it should definitely be extended for a day.
Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.
Rubbish these people who are wailing now had months to get on the voting register, if they were ever interested in voting in the first place.
Doesn't matter, if the rules state they have until midnight on the 7th to register then they should be able to register up until that time.
Is it my imagination that those rehashing their very well worn arguments against Scottish sovereignty & self determination are mainly Leavers? Interesting.
Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.
Yeah, I know, and it should definitely be extended for a day.
I think the deadline should stand. Unless they were logged in *prior* to midnight and then the website crashed.
There has to be a cut-off somewhere so councils have time to update their registers and issue postal votes.
By the same token, I would have sympathy for anyone in a queue to vote prior to 10pm, and think they should be entitled to vote.
I would not have sympathy with someone who turned up at 10.01pm and started banging on the doors of the polling station.
Mr. Chestnut, including London would that be circa 52-48? [That's a figure someone else here suggested England would need for Leave to be odds on].
Disappointing to read there was apparently a plant in the ITV audience. Didn't recall similar allegations about Sky (and that was a rather feisty lot).
I agree that 52% in England is the critical figure for Leave.
When Vote Leave gave their private polling numbers to Sky, they had Leave on 51% in England, giving 49.6% overall.
How do you know that?
Didn't realise they'd released those figures. Not sure it's wise to either.
Mr. D, a woman who questioned Farage regarding migration, racism and so forth [didn't watch it, hence lack of detail] is Imriel Morgan, apparently a Huffington Post journalist/diversity activist.
Some on Twitter (obviously open to being wrong) suggest she isn't British, which does raise a question of whether she has a vote.
Edited extra bit: Morgan herself has said she isn't a journalist, but there is a furore about it.
Question: Gibraltar gets a vote (anyone know why?). Do the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man? Aren't they "out" of the EU (or semi out) in some weird way anyway?
"Less riskier"?!? Tsk, tsk, tsk. Shows how important a return to teaching formal grammar is. It's pretty much certain that there's an error in this post now, isn't it...
Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.
But the rules do say if you cant organise yourself you cant vote, you have months to do it.
The web crash affected 50,000 people, I don't see how opening up and letting all and sundry on is fair either.
Likewise since anyone with half an ounce of sense could see there have been repeated last minute registrations the Electoral Commission should not have been taken by surprise.
Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.
Yeah, I know, and it should definitely be extended for a day.
I think the deadline should stand. Unless they were logged in *prior* to midnight and then the website crashed.
There has to be a cut-off somewhere so councils have time to update their registers and issue postal votes.
By the same token, I would have sympathy for anyone in a queue to vote prior to 10pm, and think they should be entitled to vote.
I would not have sympathy with someone who turned up at 10.01pm and started banging on the doors of the polling station.
Yeah, it is more difficult to assess with a website. There are reports you just couldn't even get to the website. Does that count as queuing up? Then comes the hassle of determining which would be electors were in the "queue". Much easier just to extend it by 24 hours (not the end of the world), and have a more sensible deadline in the very early hours when 90% of the country will be asleep.
Pienaar: "MP after MP has returned to Westminster with depressing tales from their home turf; of door-knocking in staunchly Labour areas where apathy towards the EU question has given way to rank hostility. One former minister contacted dozens of local Labour councillors urging them to mobilise behind the Remain campaign. To the MP's fury, the appeal elicited one single reply."
This really is slipping away from Remain.
Why the hell isn't Alan Johnson on our TV screens every five minutes urging Labour voters to get a grip of themselves instead of the Corbyn and Watson roadshow?
Probably because Labour reckon EU membership is not an existential question for Labour so there is no point doing an SLab and pissig off 30% of your voters.
Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.
But the rules do say if you cant organise yourself you cant vote, you have months to do it.
The web crash affected 50,000 people, I don't see how opening up and letting all and sundry on is fair either.
Likewise since anyone with half an ounce of sense could see there have been repeated last minute registrations the Electoral Commission should not have been taken by surprise.
What are the odds any of them lose their jobs ?
Just imagine the same thing had happened with the Eurovision televote? I can just see you now marching on EBU headquarters to give them your vote in person.
On the last thread, I posted the graphs from Times Red Box debate polling - and Farage led by quite a margin. Anyone know if it was weighted or just anyone online?
Red Box say that 80% of the 2500 people who signed up declared themselves as pro-Brexit before the debate, so not weighted. However, they add:
"Farage was notably more popular with his supporters than the PM. Overall, he had an average rating of 94 per cent among Leavers, 15 per cent among Remainers and 63 per cent among Undecideds.
Cameron managed only 86 per cent among Remainers - who are on his side - with 29 per cent among Undecideds and just 4 per cent with Leavers."
As both politicians have people who agree with them on this but don't like them in other ways, I wouldn't put too much weight on this, but it suggests that people who declared themselves (hmm) to be undecided at the start liked Farage more.
Pienaar: "MP after MP has returned to Westminster with depressing tales from their home turf; of door-knocking in staunchly Labour areas where apathy towards the EU question has given way to rank hostility. One former minister contacted dozens of local Labour councillors urging them to mobilise behind the Remain campaign. To the MP's fury, the appeal elicited one single reply."
This really is slipping away from Remain.
Why the hell isn't Alan Johnson on our TV screens every five minutes urging Labour voters to get a grip of themselves instead of the Corbyn and Watson roadshow?
Because he (and evveryone else) doesn't get to decide when he's on TV. The channels invite whom they choose to invite.
I do think that the debate schedule is light on Labour people, and wonder how the channels square that with the purdash requirement for political neutrality. Of course it's more exciting to have Cameron (vote Leave and World War 3 will follow) vs Farage (vote Remain and a lot of foreigners will rape you) than Corbyn or Johnson (the EU isn't great but better on balance), but the broadcasters aren't supposed to be only about excitement.
I would think that given Johnson and Cameron are on the same side they count the same for political neutrality. Party is irrelevant. Otherwise they could only feature Gove and Johnson for Tories (or just Cameron and Osborne) and claim to have balance.
Question: Gibraltar gets a vote (anyone know why?). Do the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man? Aren't they "out" of the EU (or semi out) in some weird way anyway?
The Channel Islands are within the Customs Union (i.e. no tariffs), but not within the EU. They are also within the CTA.
Mr. Chestnut, including London would that be circa 52-48? [That's a figure someone else here suggested England would need for Leave to be odds on].
Disappointing to read there was apparently a plant in the ITV audience. Didn't recall similar allegations about Sky (and that was a rather feisty lot).
If Leave achieve 54-46 (excl London) I think they will be safe.
I also think the London electorate will shrink sharply if the electoral authorities have performed their duties correctly.
Nearly 40% of the population was born outside the UK, so its fairly reasonable to conclude that many, though obviously not that high, will fall foul of the citizenship requirement. That will down weight the value of London more than any other region compared to the general election.
...and potentially Sturgeon herself in an election overspend investigation by using a helicopter and not declaring the correct cost.
The referendum campaign is seriously hiding what would have been a huge story about election expenses in 2015, with every major party in up to their neck in it.
We still might get one or two prosecutions, but it's obvious the Electoral Commission need to urgently clarify what's counted as local and national election spending - if they don't change the rules completely for the 2020 General Election.
It's the Tories who are up to their neck in the election expenses story. They used a battlebus to bus in activist to help in specific constituencies. They have used legal means to try to avoid handing over information. They are quite naturally trying to say other parties did the same thing, but it doesn't appear to be working.
On the last thread, I posted the graphs from Times Red Box debate polling - and Farage led by quite a margin. Anyone know if it was weighted or just anyone online?
Red Box say that 80% of the 2500 people who signed up declared themselves as pro-Brexit before the debate, so not weighted. However, they add:
"Farage was notably more popular with his supporters than the PM. Overall, he had an average rating of 94 per cent among Leavers, 15 per cent among Remainers and 63 per cent among Undecideds.
Cameron managed only 86 per cent among Remainers - who are on his side - with 29 per cent among Undecideds and just 4 per cent with Leavers."
As both politicians have people who agree with them on this but don't like them in other ways, I wouldn't put too much weight on this, but it suggests that people who declared themselves (hmm) to be undecided at the start liked Farage more.
Pienaar: "MP after MP has returned to Westminster with depressing tales from their home turf; of door-knocking in staunchly Labour areas where apathy towards the EU question has given way to rank hostility. One former minister contacted dozens of local Labour councillors urging them to mobilise behind the Remain campaign. To the MP's fury, the appeal elicited one single reply."
This really is slipping away from Remain.
Why the hell isn't Alan Johnson on our TV screens every five minutes urging Labour voters to get a grip of themselves instead of the Corbyn and Watson roadshow?
Because he (and evveryone else) doesn't get to decide when he's on TV. The channels invite whom they choose to invite.
I do think that the debate schedule is light on Labour people, and wonder how the channels square that with the purdash requirement for political neutrality. Of course it's more exciting to have Cameron (vote Leave and World War 3 will follow) vs Farage (vote Remain and a lot of foreigners will rape you) than Corbyn or Johnson (the EU isn't great but better on balance), but the broadcasters aren't supposed to be only about excitement.
Fair point. Why is Cameron so totally front and centre? Leave might do well to have broader church more visible.
Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.
Yeah, I know, and it should definitely be extended for a day.
I think the deadline should stand. Unless they were logged in *prior* to midnight and then the website crashed.
There has to be a cut-off somewhere so councils have time to update their registers and issue postal votes.
By the same token, I would have sympathy for anyone in a queue to vote prior to 10pm, and think they should be entitled to vote.
I would not have sympathy with someone who turned up at 10.01pm and started banging on the doors of the polling station.
Yeah, it is more difficult to assess with a website. There are reports you just couldn't even get to the website. Does that count as queuing up? Then comes the hassle of determining which would be electors were in the "queue". Much easier just to extend it by 24 hours (not the end of the world), and have a more sensible deadline in the very early hours when 90% of the country will be asleep.
I'm afraid Rob I don't have much sympathy for the disorganised leaving it to the last minute.
An extension will just cause the same problem all over again.
Mr. Chestnut, including London would that be circa 52-48? [That's a figure someone else here suggested England would need for Leave to be odds on].
Disappointing to read there was apparently a plant in the ITV audience. Didn't recall similar allegations about Sky (and that was a rather feisty lot).
If Leave achieve 54-46 I think they will be safe.
I also think the London electorate will shrink sharply if the electoral authorities have performed their duties correctly.
Nearly 40% of the population was born outside the UK, so its fairly reasonable to conclude that many, though obviously not that high, will fall foul of the citizenship requirement. That will down weight the value of London more than any other region compared to the general election.
I wonder what percentage of that 40 are from Commonwealth countries, as they do have the vote.
Mr. D, a woman who questioned Farage regarding migration, racism and so forth [didn't watch it, hence lack of detail] is Imriel Morgan, apparently a Huffington Post journalist/diversity activist.
Some on Twitter (obviously open to being wrong) suggest she isn't British, which does raise a question of whether she has a vote.
Edited extra bit: Morgan herself has said she isn't a journalist, but there is a furore about it.
Comments
http://news.trust.org/item/20160607175612-xv0kf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNb_PHvQF4s
This really is slipping away from Remain.
Why the hell isn't Alan Johnson on our TV screens every five minutes urging Labour voters to get a grip of themselves instead of the Corbyn and Watson roadshow?
Corbyn is doing a great job sitting on the fence
* In reality, Scotland would have to pay more than that. As Spain and Greece showed during the Eurozone crisis: big budget deficit equals expensive debt.
Of course it doesn't help that Sturgeon has surrounded herself with old friends and cronies, who, with the best will in the world, would only be described as just incompetent. Of course having 2 of your MP's involved in a three some doesn't help stop the hilarity, another one having her house raided by the Police with yet another charge being made, yet another facing serious prison time for fraud and potentially Sturgeon herself in an election overspend investigation by using a helicopter and not declaring the correct cost.
And then, the £10 billion biggie, the Mutual Understanding with a Chinese company accused of fraud and corruption in other countries, which Sturgeon signed days before the purdah prior to the election, which contrary to previous practices by the SNP media machine, was kept under wraps and was only discovered by accident. Only now is information being dragged out of the administration that discussions had been going on, in secret, for over a year, with a major SNP benefactor seriously involved with the potential of him making serious profits, which brings us nicely back to wagons and stagecoaches.
Labour / lefty voters are the key to the outcome - which is why Dave has been getting funky with Khan, Harman and his natural bedfellows. Vote Leave should ask the RMT to make a big speech about leaving - they are a large, credible, lefty and formally supporting Leave union. Would make it less of a Blue on Blue affair and cement the case for a reasoned, moral, lefty approach to getting the hell out of Dodge.
Will those outside London supporting Remain in a lukewarm way, turn out? This question is the key to this referendum. I'm not sure they will, more interested in football and beer gardens on a nice summer's day.
Corbyn is doing a fantastic job of fence-sitting, long may it continue.
Anecdote (not data!): Three of out of four sandpit-based friends with postal votes arriving this week are also voting Leave
The short answer is: we don't know. Sunderland is massively Labour, of course, so in theory should vote Remain. Let's see
UKIP : 20%
Labour: 50%
Tories : 23%
Lib Dems/ Green 7%
Gives
19% Leave : 1% Remain
17% Leave : 33% Remain
13% Leave : 10% Remain
1% Leave : 6% Remain
Total : Leave 50%: Remain 50%
Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.
Cameron advocating for Turkey interspersed with video of their parliamentarians engaged in a brawl last month.
We still might get one or two prosecutions, but it's obvious the Electoral Commission need to urgently clarify what's counted as local and national election spending - if they don't change the rules completely for the 2020 General Election.
I'd expect felix/EiT and one or two others to be Remain.
Yourself, GeoffM and indigo for Leave (but indigo hasn't arranged a vote I don't think)
If Leave is above 52-53%, I'd begin to get excited. But I think 50/50 would be pointing to a Remain win.
I think most overseas votes will be distinguishable by the DHL and Aramex bags they arrive in, most expats don't trust international postal systems to be anywhere close to timely.
She'll probably end up with a lead in pledged delegates of 400 or so; there are 719 unpledged delegates.
If it doesn't then Remain are probably on course for a clear victory.
Shame the Scottish electorate loves the goodies.
Disappointing to read there was apparently a plant in the ITV audience. Didn't recall similar allegations about Sky (and that was a rather feisty lot).
That nice man Shadsy is still offering 10/1 on a GE in each of 2016, 2017 and 2018. Reasonable odds given the Government has almost no majority, the PM has already said he will resign at some point this Parliament, and the small matter of the referendum fallout.
When Vote Leave gave their private polling numbers to Sky, they had Leave on 51% in England, giving 49.6% overall.
The rest of England and Wales is about 23.5m.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36471989
French view of EU ; 61% Unfavourable, 38% Favourable.
Edit, meant quarter, not third
"Farage was notably more popular with his supporters than the PM. Overall, he had an average rating of 94 per cent among Leavers, 15 per cent among Remainers and 63 per cent among Undecideds.
Cameron managed only 86 per cent among Remainers - who are on his side - with 29 per cent among Undecideds and just 4 per cent with Leavers."
As both politicians have people who agree with them on this but don't like them in other ways, I wouldn't put too much weight on this, but it suggests that people who declared themselves (hmm) to be undecided at the start liked Farage more. Because he (and evveryone else) doesn't get to decide when he's on TV. The channels invite whom they choose to invite.
I do think that the debate schedule is light on Labour people, and wonder how the channels square that with the purdash requirement for political neutrality. Of course it's more exciting to have Cameron (vote Leave and World War 3 will follow) vs Farage (vote Remain and a lot of foreigners will rape you) than Corbyn or Johnson (the EU isn't great but better on balance), but the broadcasters aren't supposed to be only about excitement.
Didn't realise they'd released those figures. Not sure it's wise to either.
I blame the Electoral Commission. If they've not been clear then it's no surprise this has happened. Besides it's not like there was an attempt to mislead all this was declared by all the relevant parties.
I think the best way to resolve it is to set the rules on material/marketing expenses (eg billboards, mail shots) but exclude people related expenses eg buses etc ... more human contact is a good thing and shouldn't be capped.
You have to feel for politicians of all stripes who have to do this thankless nonsense just for 30 secs on "points South West" or whatever the local TV is called.
"Less riskier"?!? Tsk, tsk, tsk. Shows how important a return to teaching formal grammar is. It's pretty much certain that there's an error in this post now, isn't it...
Interesting.
There has to be a cut-off somewhere so councils have time to update their registers and issue postal votes.
By the same token, I would have sympathy for anyone in a queue to vote prior to 10pm, and think they should be entitled to vote.
I would not have sympathy with someone who turned up at 10.01pm and started banging on the doors of the polling station.
Some on Twitter (obviously open to being wrong) suggest she isn't British, which does raise a question of whether she has a vote.
Edited extra bit: Morgan herself has said she isn't a journalist, but there is a furore about it.
The web crash affected 50,000 people, I don't see how opening up and letting all and sundry on is fair either.
Likewise since anyone with half an ounce of sense could see there have been repeated last minute registrations the Electoral Commission should not have been taken by surprise.
What are the odds any of them lose their jobs ?
Sunderland counting area;
AB 12.9%
C1 29.7%
C2 22.3%
DE 35.2%
18-29 20%
30-64 59%
65+ 21%
Median Age 41
Back in 2011, Sunderland was 5.5 percentage points more anti-AV compared to the national result, with a 4.6% lower turnout.
I also think the London electorate will shrink sharply if the electoral authorities have performed their duties correctly.
Nearly 40% of the population was born outside the UK, so its fairly reasonable to conclude that many, though obviously not that high, will fall foul of the citizenship requirement. That will down weight the value of London more than any other region compared to the general election.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36271515
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36231138
http://www.markpack.org.uk/140952/adrian-sanders-election-expenses/
An extension will just cause the same problem all over again.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/imriel-morgan/
Not sure what the cut off is these days between journalist and blogger. Does SeanT count himself as a journalist?