Yes, but if I reasonably thought there was going to be an almighty rush to the booth I might just think it wise to saunter down a bit earlier just to be safe. Maybe I am still of a generation that is mildly amazed when the IT actually works and so anticipate that thousands accessing a Govt website in a rush might just cause a few problems as we all know how utterly marvellous Govt IT projects have been over the years.
In fairness I'm probably slightly paranoid about these things but sometimes that's not a bad position.
Nah, anyone who works in corporate IT can set up an almost infinitely scalable website very easily these days. It's a combination of inertia and the fact that nobody ever gets fired that stops them doing it properly.
If I were the IT Director of a company doing a product launch that had a registration website crash in the hours before a deadline, I'd be pleading with the bosses for my job this morning.
Back in the early days of pb, the site architecture was complex, and the site would frequently go down during busy times.
Nowadays, other than executing apt-get update && apt-get upgrade every couple of weeks, I don't have to do anything. Technology has come on a long way in the last ten years.
Yep, and in the olden days you'd never have upgraded or updated anything once it entered production!
The story I always remember about scalablity on websites was that BBC News online crashed on the day of the London bombings. Within months they had replications in every continent with first EMC then the fledgling AWS. Everyone now does the same, especially for video content.
Tee, hee. Bernie swears he will continue to fight for the nomination.
Bernie Sanders' decision to stay in the race ensures the Democratic Party remains divided and sets the stage for potential conflict in Philadelphia in July.
He can't win but he vows to keep campaigning until the convention.
Hoping for a Clinton indictment. Reasonable decision by Sanders.
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
Thanks. Are any of PB's non-EU expats voting Remain, or do we all have an international viewpoint that is worldwide rather than Europe-centered?
Anecdote (not data!): Three of out of four sandpit-based friends with postal votes arriving this week are also voting Leave
Isn't it rather mixed?
I'd expect felix/EiT and one or two others to be Remain.
Yourself, GeoffM and indigo for Leave (but indigo hasn't arranged a vote I don't think)
I started! My local council (from when I was in the UK) told me it was sending me a letter, which made it pointless because it will take two months to get here.
Indigo. You can download a proxy voting form from your local council (as in the one you had before you moved abroad). In emergencies (and the length of time it takes for mail to reach the UK from the Philippines might count), you have another 10 days to get the form in. Or you - if you don't mind wasting £20 - could Fedex it, and get it in on time.
You do need to find someone in your local council area (I'm Camden) to act as your proxy.
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
Thanks. Are any of PB's non-EU expats voting Remain, or do we all have an international viewpoint that is worldwide rather than Europe-centered?
Anecdote (not data!): Three of out of four sandpit-based friends with postal votes arriving this week are also voting Leave
Isn't it rather mixed?
I'd expect felix/EiT and one or two others to be Remain.
Yourself, GeoffM and indigo for Leave (but indigo hasn't arranged a vote I don't think)
I started! My local council (from when I was in the UK) told me it was sending me a letter, which made it pointless because it will take two months to get here.
Indigo. You can download a proxy voting form from your local council (as in the one you had before you moved abroad). In emergencies (and the length of time it takes for mail to reach the UK from the Philippines might count), you have another 10 days to get the form in. Or you - if you don't mind wasting £20 - could Fedex it, and get it in on time.
You do need to find someone in your local council area (I'm Camden) to act as your proxy.
I'm not sure that this is being reported correctly in the UK. It's about suffering imprisonment for crossing an 'Internal Schengen' border specifically if having not been subject to a deportation procedure from the EU area itself.
Yes, but if I reasonably thought there was going to be an almighty rush to the booth I might just think it wise to saunter down a bit earlier just to be safe. Maybe I am still of a generation that is mildly amazed when the IT actually works and so anticipate that thousands accessing a Govt website in a rush might just cause a few problems as we all know how utterly marvellous Govt IT projects have been over the years.
In fairness I'm probably slightly paranoid about these things but sometimes that's not a bad position.
Nah, anyone who works in corporate IT can set up an almost infinitely scalable website very easily these days. It's a combination of inertia and the fact that nobody ever gets fired that stops them doing it properly.
If I were the IT Director of a company doing a product launch that had a registration website crash in the hours before a deadline, I'd be pleading with the bosses for my job this morning.
Back in the early days of pb, the site architecture was complex, and the site would frequently go down during busy times.
Nowadays, other than executing apt-get update && apt-get upgrade every couple of weeks, I don't have to do anything. Technology has come on a long way in the last ten years.
Yep, and in the olden days you'd never have upgraded or updated anything once it entered production!
The story I always remember about scalablity on websites was that BBC News online crashed on the day of the London bombings. Within months they had replications in every continent with first EMC then the fledgling AWS. Everyone now does the same, especially for video content.
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
Thanks. Are any of PB's non-EU expats voting Remain, or do we all have an international viewpoint that is worldwide rather than Europe-centered?
Anecdote (not data!): Three of out of four sandpit-based friends with postal votes arriving this week are also voting Leave
Isn't it rather mixed?
I'd expect felix/EiT and one or two others to be Remain.
Yourself, GeoffM and indigo for Leave (but indigo hasn't arranged a vote I don't think)
I started! My local council (from when I was in the UK) told me it was sending me a letter, which made it pointless because it will take two months to get here.
Indigo. You can download a proxy voting form from your local council (as in the one you had before you moved abroad). In emergencies (and the length of time it takes for mail to reach the UK from the Philippines might count), you have another 10 days to get the form in. Or you - if you don't mind wasting £20 - could Fedex it, and get it in on time.
You do need to find someone in your local council area (I'm Camden) to act as your proxy.
I'm Westminster & could proxy for you if you need
It's alright for some
20 yards...halved my council tax...
You moved to the other side of Exhibition Road?
Yeh, righhhht! You choose the wealthy districts to canvas, away from the riff-raff.
Was nice to have William Hague getting air time this morning for Remain. The more we see of affable types who are (relatively) trusted across the board in the final two weeks, taking some of the burden / limelight from Cameron, the better. Alan Johnson was mentioned down thread - a very similar principle.
Cause to regret - an LD figure would also be good, Paddy is all well and good, but as I thought about this post, I got a deep pang of regret that we do not have Charles Kennedy any more, especially a Charles Kennedy at his peak. He would have been great in all this.
Politics is changing.
It's now massively different from the late 1990s, and is rapidly moving on from the Cameron/Osborne era (moulded by Blair) as we speak.
Heseltine, Ashdown, Kinnock and Mandelson aren't going to do much more than preach to the converted.
I agree Kennedy is a loss for Remain. Blair doesn't dare say a word. Major is probably neutral. Gordon Brown might be a mild positive. Ruth Davidson almost certainly is.
But the big beasts of the post-Thatcher era are no more.
If Remain want to win, they need to do it with new faces that look to the future.
Same for Leave.
Major has the right sort of profile overall. But it is too personal for him - every utterance he makes smacks of his ongoing bitterness over 'the bastards'.
Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.
The whole nature of the debate has shifted massively.
Prior to 2005, there wasn't a single Conservative MP openly committed to leaving the EU, now there are over a hundred.
When Hague was Tory leader, the party's European slogan was 'in Europe, not run by Europe' and it's central policy was to rule out membership of the Euro during the next parliament - in other words, to consider it possible post-2005/6. The Lib Dems, IIRC, were in favour; Labour retained an open mind subject to events.
In 2005, UKIP won only 2.2% of the vote - fewer than Goldsmith's Referendum Party in 1997 - and had only recently defeated a Big Three (as they then were) candidate at a by-election for the first time.
Put simply, those whose views haven't changed much in the last ten years have seen them shift either from the fringe to the mainstream or vice versa.
On topic, I don't really believe the Scottish people love the EU that much to make rejoining it via independence a national priority. But it will be the mother of all grievances for the SNP to exploit, deepening further the cleavages of the Scottish referendum.
The SNP are increasingly going to be judged on bread-and-butter issues: the leadership are already aware that another 5 years on constitutional matters isn't a good idea. However the membership are not all as realistic.
The question is whether the EU might flirt with them - offer generous membership and so on as some have mooted. I think that's unlikely - it's hard for me to see how a divided UK is in Europe's interests and the US certainly wouldn't like it. However what would financial institutions do post-Brexit? Some might fancy Dublin and Edinburgh might smell an opportunity were it still inside the EU.
...and potentially Sturgeon herself in an election overspend investigation by using a helicopter and not declaring the correct cost.
The referendum campaign is seriously hiding what would have been a huge story about election expenses in 2015, with every major party in up to their neck in it.
We still might get one or two prosecutions, but it's obvious the Electoral Commission need to urgently clarify what's counted as local and national election spending - if they don't change the rules completely for the 2020 General Election.
It's the Tories who are up to their neck in the election expenses story. They used a battlebus to bus in activist to help in specific constituencies. They have used legal means to try to avoid handing over information. They are quite naturally trying to say other parties did the same thing, but it doesn't appear to be working.
Nope, it's not a party political point. Guido has also fingered Nick Clegg, Cat Smith (Labour, possibly the worst offender for failing to declare her own campaign staff) and the SNP (who hired a branded helicopter to get around) as well as the Tories. All parties had battle buses and it seems that they all declared them incorrectly in the same way.
The Battlebus thing is the difference this time. Previously all parties used a Battlebus to take the leader to meet the 'people' (usually party members) and make a speech which the journalists on the bus would report. This is part of the 'air war' and national in nature. This time the Tories used a Battlebus to take activists to target seats, put them up in hotels, and they would spend their time electioneering in that specific constituency. It's a much better idea really and a bit like treating the election in that constituency in the same way as a by-election. The problem for them is that it was local electioneering and should have legally been declared as such.
Guido has a report this morning on Labour's battle bus, looks like exactly the same MO as the Tory bus to me.
All parties equally guilty here, hence the need for clarification or rewriting of the rules by the Electoral Commission. But please not their employee Louise Edwards, who has shown herself to be somewhat less than impartial in her social media posts.
''Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.''
I was looking at Major's result in 1997 the other day. 163 conservative seats FFS. 163.
It took to 2015 to build another 170. Two decades. If Labour had had a decent leader in 2010 and 2015, even that would have been in doubt.
I period of silence from Sir John, methinks.
Sigh....not entirely Majors fault was it. The right wing of the party held the Government to ransom (sound familiar). Obviously the ERM was disastrous and he was to blame, however by 1997
Was nice to have William Hague getting air time this morning for Remain. The more we see of affable types who are (relatively) trusted across the board in the final two weeks, taking some of the burden / limelight from Cameron, the better. Alan Johnson was mentioned down thread - a very similar principle.
Cause to regret - an LD figure would also be good, Paddy is all well and good, but as I thought about this post, I got a deep pang of regret that we do not have Charles Kennedy any more, especially a Charles Kennedy at his peak. He would have been great in all this.
Politics is changing.
It's now massively different from the late 1990s, and is rapidly moving on from the Cameron/Osborne era (moulded by Blair) as we speak.
Heseltine, Ashdown, Kinnock and Mandelson aren't going to do much more than preach to the converted.
I agree Kennedy is a loss for Remain. Blair doesn't dare say a word. Major is probably neutral. Gordon Brown might be a mild positive. Ruth Davidson almost certainly is.
But the big beasts of the post-Thatcher era are no more.
If Remain want to win, they need to do it with new faces that look to the future.
Same for Leave.
Major has'.
Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.
The whole nature of the debate has shifted massively.
Prior to 2005, there wasn't a single Conservative MP openly committed to leaving the EU, now there are over a hundred.
When Hague was Tory leader, the party's European slogan was 'in Europe, not run by Europe' and it's central policy was to rule out membership of the Euro during the next parliament - in other words, to consider it possible post-2005/6. The Lib Dems, IIRC, were in favour; Labour retained an open mind subject to events.
In 2005, UKIP won only 2.2% of the vote - fewer than Goldsmith's Referendum Party in 1997 - and had only recently defeated a Big Three (as they then were) candidate at a by-election for the first time.
Put simply, those whose views haven't changed much in the last ten years have seen them shift either from the fringe to the mainstream or vice versa.
All of that is true. Even five years ago, leaving the EU was a fringe position.
To put this into context, no-one can doubt the sincerity of my 'Leave' views. But back when I ran my university association in 2001-2004 I was pro-Eastern Europe expansion of the EU and pro-single market.
But I remember being extremely nervous about the euro and, prior to the Iraq War, I had a couple of moments in 2001-2002 where I seriously worried the Pound was doomed.
''Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.''
I was looking at Major's result in 1997 the other day. 163 conservative seats FFS. 163.
It took to 2015 to build another 170. Two decades. If Labour had had a decent leader in 2010 and 2015, even that would have been in doubt.
I period of silence from Sir John, methinks.
Sigh....not entirely Majors fault was it. The right wing of the party held the Government to ransom (sound familiar). Obviously the ERM was disastrous and he was to blame, however by 1997
Sorry...by 1997 we had a strong economy but the divisions within the party wrecked any chance of electoral success.
The lesson for news junkies is a simple one: As Election Day approaches, don’t pay attention to the headlines about what the polls say—these won’t be rigorous enough or accurate enough to detect what’s really happening. As Shor says, “Campaigns have access to high-quality polling, and the public generally doesn’t.” Instead, watch what the candidates are actually doing on the ground. It’s like boxing: Sophisticated observers know that the sparring up top matters less than the footwork, which predicts when and where a punch will land.
Shor points back to the Michigan example from 2012. “The fact that the Obama campaign wasn’t spending money, that kind of speaks for itself. Look at where they’re spending. Look at where they’re adding staff. That’s where they think they’ll be competitive.” In other words, if Donald Trump tells you he’s going to have a “yuuuggge” victory in a state like New York or Pennsylvania, check whether Hillary Clinton is moving staff there before you take him at his word. The data might not back it up.
The average lead for LEAVE in his spreadsheet is 2.5%. I don't know how that squares with a par result overall.
After Sunderland (LEAVE lead of 6.2%) his cumulative figures gives a lead for REMAIN for the next fifty results until Broxbourne which has a projected LEAVE lead of 26%. LEAVE then goes into the lead cumulatively. It's going to be a roller-coaster night.
Yes, but if I reasonably thought there was going to be an almighty rush to the booth I might just think it wise to saunter down a bit earlier just to be safe. Maybe I am still of a generation that is mildly amazed when the IT actually works and so anticipate that thousands accessing a Govt website in a rush might just cause a few problems as we all know how utterly marvellous Govt IT projects have been over the years.
In fairness I'm probably slightly paranoid about these things but sometimes that's not a bad position.
Nah, anyone who works in corporate IT can set up an almost infinitely scalable website very easily these days. It's a combination of inertia and the fact that nobody ever gets fired that stops them doing it properly.
If I were the IT Director of a company doing a product launch that had a registration website crash in the hours before a deadline, I'd be pleading with the bosses for my job this morning.
Back in the early days of pb, the site architecture was complex, and the site would frequently go down during busy times.
Nowadays, other than executing apt-get update && apt-get upgrade every couple of weeks, I don't have to do anything. Technology has come on a long way in the last ten years.
Yep, and in the olden days you'd never have upgraded or updated anything once it entered production!
The story I always remember about scalablity on websites was that BBC News online crashed on the day of the London bombings. Within months they had replications in every continent with first EMC then the fledgling AWS. Everyone now does the same, especially for video content.
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
Thanks. Are any of PB's non-EU expats voting Remain, or do we all have an international viewpoint that is worldwide rather than Europe-centered?
Anecdote (not data!): Three of out of four sandpit-based friends with postal votes arriving this week are also voting Leave
Isn't it rather mixed?
I'd expect felix/EiT and one or two others to be Remain.
Yourself, GeoffM and indigo for Leave (but indigo hasn't arranged a vote I don't think)
I started! My local council (from when I was in the UK) told me it was sending me a letter, which made it pointless because it will take two months to get here.
Indigo. You can download a proxy voting form from your local council (as in the one you had before you moved abroad). In emergencies (and the length of time it takes for mail to reach the UK from the Philippines might count), you have another 10 days to get the form in. Or you - if you don't mind wasting £20 - could Fedex it, and get it in on time.
You do need to find someone in your local council area (I'm Camden) to act as your proxy.
Is it my imagination that those rehashing their very well worn arguments against Scottish sovereignty & self determination are mainly Leavers? Interesting.
It always was the strangest logic. Exactly the same as being Pro-Indy but anti-Brexit. The same arguments should apply to both.
Not if you take the view that membership of the EU makes small states more viable.
Edit Not that I'm either anti or pro-indy. That's entirely a decision for the Scots to make.
Not really. They would lose more by joining the EU than they gain by leaving the UK.
More viable than it would otherwise be, I mean. I can understand Scots wanting independence from their domineering southern neighbour but being worried about going it alone in the world. Membership of a more distant EU (not directly controlling, but providing support with international issues) might be enough to reassure. A move towards a Europe of Regions, if you will.
Not my vision but I see your point.
By the way I forgot to mention yesterday that now I have read your postings over the last few weeks I realise you are a worthy successor to Steven Whaley. It is nice to have some committed Federalists on here arguing from principle rather than the usual Europhiles who pretend that the UK can have its cake and eat it or deny there is a movement for closer union because they know the British public do not agree with it.
From a Libertarian point of view I may not agree at all with your views but it is good to have more people on here arguing from a point of principle rather than expediency.
Tee, hee. Bernie swears he will continue to fight for the nomination.
Bernie Sanders' decision to stay in the race ensures the Democratic Party remains divided and sets the stage for potential conflict in Philadelphia in July.
He can't win but he vows to keep campaigning until the convention.
This must be Sanders cunning plan to discredit himself and ensure his supporters switch to Clinton.
It's a brilliant plan. The clear loser, who has just been absolutely thumped in Cali, despite claiming the race would be tight, hangs around pointlessly, like the grump in the corner. Meanwhile, Hillary goes on her victory lap, praises him, and looks magnanimous in victory. Advantage DEM.
''Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.''
I was looking at Major's result in 1997 the other day. 163 conservative seats FFS. 163.
It took to 2015 to build another 170. Two decades. If Labour had had a decent leader in 2010 and 2015, even that would have been in doubt.
I period of silence from Sir John, methinks.
Sigh....not entirely Majors fault was it. The right wing of the party held the Government to ransom (sound familiar). Obviously the ERM was disastrous and he was to blame, however by 1997
Telling middle class mortgage holders with rates approach 15% that
whats betting Corbyn askes Cameron about the website crash denying thousands of poor youngesters their chance to shape Britain's future thanks to an e mail he had from someone who couldnt be bothered to sort themsleves out days or weeks ago
''Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.''
I was looking at Major's result in 1997 the other day. 163 conservative seats FFS. 163.
It took to 2015 to build another 170. Two decades. If Labour had had a decent leader in 2010 and 2015, even that would have been in doubt.
I period of silence from Sir John, methinks.
Sigh....not entirely Majors fault was it. The right wing of the party held the Government to ransom (sound familiar). Obviously the ERM was disastrous and he was to blame, however by 1997
Telling middle class mortgage holders with rates approach 15% that
''Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.''
I was looking at Major's result in 1997 the other day. 163 conservative seats FFS. 163.
It took to 2015 to build another 170. Two decades. If Labour had had a decent leader in 2010 and 2015, even that would have been in doubt.
I period of silence from Sir John, methinks.
Sigh....not entirely Majors fault was it. The right wing of the party held the Government to ransom (sound familiar). Obviously the ERM was disastrous and he was to blame, however by 1997
Sorry...by 1997 we had a strong economy but the divisions within the party wrecked any chance of electoral success.
I'm of the view that it's the ever closer union that the EU has insisted on pursuing that's responsible for the divisions in the Conservative Party, not the other way round. If it had stayed at the single market (and gone no further) we would be having a very different political debate now and, in my view, a more healthy one.
You may not be interested in the EU, but the EU is interested in you.
''Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.''
I was looking at Major's result in 1997 the other day. 163 conservative seats FFS. 163.
It took to 2015 to build another 170. Two decades. If Labour had had a decent leader in 2010 and 2015, even that would have been in doubt.
I period of silence from Sir John, methinks.
Sigh....not entirely Majors fault was it. The right wing of the party held the Government to ransom (sound familiar). Obviously the ERM was disastrous and he was to blame, however by 1997
Sorry...by 1997 we had a strong economy but the divisions within the party wrecked any chance of electoral success.
Not true at all. It was not the divisions in that party that did for Major but his own idiocy over the ERM. He took us in as Chancellor then fought tooth and nail for us to stay in even when it was clear we were doomed. It doesn't matter at all that the economy was improving by 1997. The Tory reputation for sound economics had already been trashed by Major long before that.
Tee, hee. Bernie swears he will continue to fight for the nomination.
Bernie Sanders' decision to stay in the race ensures the Democratic Party remains divided and sets the stage for potential conflict in Philadelphia in July.
He can't win but he vows to keep campaigning until the convention.
This must be Sanders cunning plan to discredit himself and ensure his supporters switch to Clinton.
It's a brilliant plan. The clear loser, who has just been absolutely thumped in Cali, despite claiming the race would be tight, hangs around pointlessly, like the grump in the corner. Meanwhile, Hillary goes on her victory lap, praises him, and looks magnanimous in victory. Advantage DEM.
Meanwhile everyone is watching Trump's latest press conference either with interest, or in the hopes that he will screw up, and no one notices what Hillary and Sanders are doing
"Once a beacon of progressive politics, the Netherlands today is a traumatised, angry and deeply confused nation. Support for immigration and the European project are at all-time lows. Synagogues and Jewish schools need police protection from homegrown jihadists, and freedom of expression is under serious pressure."
I still think the biggest roadblock for the SNP is the currency issue just as the state of the pound is for the Leave campaign.Interesting that SLAB is taking some steps towards federalism.No bet. The NHS is one issue that could get some Remain voters off their backsides to vote.Labour is highlighting this today.For Remain,the NHS needs to get up the saliance list-Sir John Major has made a very good start.
The lesson for news junkies is a simple one: As Election Day approaches, don’t pay attention to the headlines about what the polls say—these won’t be rigorous enough or accurate enough to detect what’s really happening. As Shor says, “Campaigns have access to high-quality polling, and the public generally doesn’t.” Instead, watch what the candidates are actually doing on the ground. It’s like boxing: Sophisticated observers know that the sparring up top matters less than the footwork, which predicts when and where a punch will land.
Shor points back to the Michigan example from 2012. “The fact that the Obama campaign wasn’t spending money, that kind of speaks for itself. Look at where they’re spending. Look at where they’re adding staff. That’s where they think they’ll be competitive.” In other words, if Donald Trump tells you he’s going to have a “yuuuggge” victory in a state like New York or Pennsylvania, check whether Hillary Clinton is moving staff there before you take him at his word. The data might not back it up.
Someone on here (I think!) made a similar point and, iirc, plotted the movements of Cameron, Milliband and Clegg in the last week of the 2015 campaign. Their interpretation was that both Cameron and Milliband knew that the Tory majority was on.
''Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.''
I was looking at Major's result in 1997 the other day. 163 conservative seats FFS. 163.
It took to 2015 to build another 170. Two decades. If Labour had had a decent leader in 2010 and 2015, even that would have been in doubt.
I period of silence from Sir John, methinks.
Sigh....not entirely Majors fault was it. The right wing of the party held the Government to ransom (sound familiar). Obviously the ERM was disastrous and he was to blame, however by 1997
Telling middle class mortgage holders with rates approach 15% that
has to be about as close to commiting electoral suicide as you can get in the Tory party.
I'm not arguing he wasn't to blame. I'm pointing out that by 1997 the economy was healthy, and indeed the Tories still led Labour on economic competence going into that election. Whether the right like it or not their lack of discipline, combined with a popular Labour leader and a Government that had been in power for 18 years were also contributory factors to that defeat.
Miss Plato, I do wonder if continental EU countries will do the opposite of whatever we choose.
If we leave, then electorates may want to wait and see how things pan out for the UK. If we stay, they don't have a wait-and-see option which could act as a pressure valve for sceptic sentiment.
whats betting Corbyn askes Cameron about the website crash denying thousands of poor youngesters their chance to shape Britain's future thanks to an e mail he had from someone who couldnt be bothered to sort themsleves out days or weeks ago
Corbyn doesn't normally ask the obvious question but today he is bound to ask for an extension of the period to register to vote in the referendum.
Not sure this is legally possible though. Who would be allowed to register late? Would they need to show they were prevented by the IT crash?
Whichever side wins on the 23rd an alternative reality will be created, like Schengen Area’s cat. This will be a faerie realm, a place where the wildest dreams of the losing side reached fruition.
If Leave win then every economic hiccup will have a mirror in the realm of Schadenfreude’s cat. Inflation up? Its down in the unreachable kingdom of ‘Remain’. Unemployment up? Over there there are jobs to spare. Their trade is balanced, their rights are freer than ever, even their agricultural policy is common enough for a tomato ketchup sandwich and a flutter on the dogs. June 23 2016 will mark the end of a golden age and everything bad that happens from that date forward will be the fault of those who voted to Leave. Everything from that time forward, be it economic, environmental, political, act of God, will be less than 6 steps removed from “…because we voted to leave the EU!”
@gabyhinsliff: #extendthedeadline now a row between ppl who think it's fair having to do PE in your pants if you forgot your kit, & nature's kit-forgetters
Good UK industrial production numbers just out. (Alanbrooke, does that include you?)
Since every poor figure seems to be blamed on the threat of Brexit by Osborne, will he credit the threat of Brexit with these good ones?
Good morning all. I thought I'd return from my self-imposed exile in order spread some much needed sweetness and light.
Well, given the appalling level of incompetence and downright mendacity from both campaigns, the good figures can easily be spun as a last gasp before Britain becomes a barren, tortured wasteland once cast adrift from the European mothership.
I shan't be commenting on the referendum proper; minds on here are long since made up. I would simply say this to both campaigns - I'm not angry, just very disappointed. Where did your Mother and I go wrong?
Tee, hee. Bernie swears he will continue to fight for the nomination.
Bernie Sanders' decision to stay in the race ensures the Democratic Party remains divided and sets the stage for potential conflict in Philadelphia in July.
He can't win but he vows to keep campaigning until the convention.
This must be Sanders cunning plan to discredit himself and ensure his supporters switch to Clinton.
It's a brilliant plan. The clear loser, who has just been absolutely thumped in Cali, despite claiming the race would be tight, hangs around pointlessly, like the grump in the corner. Meanwhile, Hillary goes on her victory lap, praises him, and looks magnanimous in victory. Advantage DEM.
Given that it's exactly what Hillary did in 2008, she doesn't have much room to criticise. besides, when has Sanders *not* been the grump in the corner?
The lesson for news junkies is a simple one: As Election Day approaches, don’t pay attention to the headlines about what the polls say—these won’t be rigorous enough or accurate enough to detect what’s really happening. As Shor says, “Campaigns have access to high-quality polling, and the public generally doesn’t.” Instead, watch what the candidates are actually doing on the ground. It’s like boxing: Sophisticated observers know that the sparring up top matters less than the footwork, which predicts when and where a punch will land.
This was one of the pointers to a solid Tory win last May (and the outside chance of a majority). Dave in Twickenham; Ed in North Warwickshire (target #1).
whats betting Corbyn askes Cameron about the website crash denying thousands of poor youngesters their chance to shape Britain's future thanks to an e mail he had from someone who couldnt be bothered to sort themsleves out days or weeks ago
Corbyn doesn't normally ask the obvious question but today he is bound to ask for an extension of the period to register to vote in the referendum.
Not sure this is legally possible though. Who would be allowed to register late? Would they need to show they were prevented by the IT crash?
and of course what happens if the same happens today? another extension
Whichever side wins on the 23rd an alternative reality will be created, like Schengen Area’s cat. This will be a faerie realm, a place where the wildest dreams of the losing side reached fruition.
If Leave win then every economic hiccup will have a mirror in the realm of Schadenfreude’s cat. Inflation up? Its down in the unreachable kingdom of ‘Remain’. Unemployment up? Over there there are jobs to spare. Their trade is balanced, their rights are freer than ever, even their agricultural policy is common enough for a tomato ketchup sandwich and a flutter on the dogs. June 23 2016 will mark the end of a golden age and everything bad that happens from that date forward will be the fault of those who voted to Leave. Everything from that time forward, be it economic, environmental, political, act of God, will be less than 6 steps removed from “…because we voted to leave the EU!”
I am sure you not posting the next paragraph was a complete accident, so I will add it here for you
Meanwhile, a Remain win ensures that the £350 million per week – whether it’s real or not, whether it could or would be spent on the NHS or not – will become the hardest working money in healthcare. If hospitals are understaffed then the £350 million would have fixed that, as well as removing the need to charge visitors for parking, making sure your GP didn’t have a West Indian accent and could be visited this epoch. If your granny has a fall and fractures her skull then under the super-funded NHS she’d have already been equipped with a gyroscopic exoskeleton, she’d have been less little old lady and more The six million dollar nan (and in that world there’s no chance that $6m would be worth significantly more than £350m). Every single migrant will be the fault of those who voted to stay in the EU; whether they’re lazing about claiming benefits, stealing an Englishman’s job, poking their foreign nose into local issues or simply refusing to integrate.
On Major, I think there has always been a huge reluctance for much of the Tory right to admit that the admiration voters held for Mrs Thatcher was always rather partial or to recognise that by the end of the 80s people were fed up with her. Far better to blame Major for not being continuity Thatcher than acknowledge the more obvious reality - the country wanted to move on. Perhaps that's the danger of not allowing a leader to lose an election?
I see no value in the "independent by 2020" bet - that would require an early referendum and a speedy divorce.
I'm not particularly struck on the bet on an independence referendum before 2020 either. I can only see Nicola Sturgeon insisting on one being held if she is confident of winning. Current polling suggests that she won't be confident of winning, even in the event of Brexit.
Nicola Sturgeon has made it clear that she will only call a referendum when she thinks she will win it and I think she has enough authority within the SNP to hold the line on that until 2020. Therefore Scotland to vote YES to independence before end 2020 at 10/1 is a better value bet than Next independence referendum before end 2020 at 5/1.
Whether either of them are good value is another matter. On my reading of history, constitutional change is most likely to happen at times of crisis and I think there will be a constitutional crisis if we Brexit, not least because Scotland will have voted against. Referendums are entirely about whether people a cross in this box or that box. It doesn't have to be meaningful or sensible. Enough people are quite likely to think I am going to vote Yes this time, even though the Scexit path will be even trickier than last time.
The other factor is how likely we are to Leave. Scotland being independent before 2020 is consequently even less likely if we Remain. If I put Leave at 3/1 that implies a clear majority of Scots being pro-independence as a result of leaving is also 3/1. That gets us to the overall 10/1 figure. Sounds about right, but there are a lot of variables in it.
@BBCPhilipSim: Queensferry Crossing: adverse weather means contractors "unable to achieve target opening date of December 2016" https://t.co/MTQBxdCxtW
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
Thanks. Are any of PB's non-EU expats voting Remain, or do we all have an international viewpoint that is worldwide rather than Europe-centered?
Anecdote (not data!): Three of out of four sandpit-based friends with postal votes arriving this week are also voting Leave
Isn't it rather mixed?
I'd expect felix/EiT and one or two others to be Remain.
Yourself, GeoffM and indigo for Leave (but indigo hasn't arranged a vote I don't think)
I started! My local council (from when I was in the UK) told me it was sending me a letter, which made it pointless because it will take two months to get here.
Indigo. You can download a proxy voting form from your local council (as in the one you had before you moved abroad). In emergencies (and the length of time it takes for mail to reach the UK from the Philippines might count), you have another 10 days to get the form in. Or you - if you don't mind wasting £20 - could Fedex it, and get it in on time.
You do need to find someone in your local council area (I'm Camden) to act as your proxy.
''Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.''
I was looking at Major's result in 1997 the other day. 163 conservative seats FFS. 163.
It took to 2015 to build another 170. Two decades. If Labour had had a decent leader in 2010 and 2015, even that would have been in doubt.
I period of silence from Sir John, methinks.
Sigh....not entirely Majors fault was it. The right wing of the party held the Government to ransom (sound familiar). Obviously the ERM was disastrous and he was to blame, however by 1997
Sorry...by 1997 we had a strong economy but the divisions within the party wrecked any chance of electoral success.
I'm of the view that it's the ever closer union that the EU has insisted on pursuing that's responsible for the divisions in the Conservative Party, not the other way round. If it had stayed at the single market (and gone no further) we would be having a very different political debate now and, in my view, a more healthy one.
You may not be interested in the EU, but the EU is interested in you.
I don't disagree with that at all. I'm a very reluctant Remainer, primarily voting that way out of loyalty and because economically I think it makes sense currently. I'm prepared to accept (unwillingly) some of the things about the EU I dislike for that reason. Its a very close call and I can understand Leavers feeling differently.
A good morning's entertainment reading this thread - before everyone gets ratty later in the day. Got to go now - as I'm executing apt-get updates && apt-get upgrades.
whats betting Corbyn askes Cameron about the website crash denying thousands of poor youngesters their chance to shape Britain's future thanks to an e mail he had from someone who couldnt be bothered to sort themsleves out days or weeks ago
Corbyn doesn't normally ask the obvious question but today he is bound to ask for an extension of the period to register to vote in the referendum.
Not sure this is legally possible though. Who would be allowed to register late? Would they need to show they were prevented by the IT crash?
Is the government under a legal obligation to offer this service - or to offer it to the last-most second on which registration is legally possible? If not, then there's no case to answer.
Nicola Sturgeon has made it clear that she will only call a referendum when she thinks she will win it and I think she has enough authority within the SNP to hold the line on that until 2020. Therefore Scotland to vote YES to independence before end 2020 at 10/1 is a better value bet than Next independence referendum before end 2020 at 5/1.
Whether either of them are good value is another matter. On my reading of history, constitutional change is most likely to happen at times of crisis and I think there will be a constitutional crisis if we Brexit, not least because Scotland will have voted against. Referendums are entirely about whether people a cross in this box or that box. It doesn't have to be meaningful or sensible. Enough people are quite likely to think I am going to vote Yes this time, even though the Scexit path will be even trickier than last time.
The other factor is how likely we are to Leave. Scotland being independent before 2020 is consequently even less likely if we Remain. If I put Leave at 3/1 that implies a clear majority of Scots being pro-independence as a result of leaving is also 3/1. That gets us to the overall 10/1 figure. Sounds about right, but there are a lot of variables in it.
The issue for me would partly be the 2020 figure. It is at least possible that the Leave vote in a couple of week's then leads to years of chaos and uncertainty and parliamentary games, even another GE to cement the result. At what point does SNP decide, sod this, Brexit is really happening?
whats betting Corbyn askes Cameron about the website crash denying thousands of poor youngesters their chance to shape Britain's future thanks to an e mail he had from someone who couldnt be bothered to sort themsleves out days or weeks ago
Corbyn doesn't normally ask the obvious question but today he is bound to ask for an extension of the period to register to vote in the referendum.
Not sure this is legally possible though. Who would be allowed to register late? Would they need to show they were prevented by the IT crash?
Is the government under a legal obligation to offer this service - or to offer it to the last-most second on which registration is legally possible? If not, then there's no case to answer.
I doubt they have to do anything, the question is whether they should.
I can't see how extending registration prejudices anyone else.
Nicola Sturgeon has made it clear that she will only call a referendum when she thinks she will win it and I think she has enough authority within the SNP to hold the line on that until 2020. Therefore Scotland to vote YES to independence before end 2020 at 10/1 is a better value bet than Next independence referendum before end 2020 at 5/1.
The 10/1 is on Scotland becoming independent before [Jan 1st] 2020, which I read as the referendum needing to be by the middle of 2017 at the latest. I'm not betting in this market but check the rules carefully if you do.
On Major, I think there has always been a huge reluctance for much of the Tory right to admit that the admiration voters held for Mrs Thatcher was always rather partial or to recognise that by the end of the 80s people were fed up with her. Far better to blame Major for not being continuity Thatcher than acknowledge the more obvious reality - the country wanted to move on. Perhaps that's the danger of not allowing a leader to lose an election?
Major tried to be Thatcher but failed to understand the philosophical basis for her beliefs and the practical limits of those beliefs. This is why once she was gone he was far more aggressive in shutting pits and why he chose to privatise the railways, something Thatcher had said was a privatisation too far.
whats betting Corbyn askes Cameron about the website crash denying thousands of poor youngesters their chance to shape Britain's future thanks to an e mail he had from someone who couldnt be bothered to sort themsleves out days or weeks ago
Corbyn doesn't normally ask the obvious question but today he is bound to ask for an extension of the period to register to vote in the referendum.
Not sure this is legally possible though. Who would be allowed to register late? Would they need to show they were prevented by the IT crash?
and of course what happens if the same happens today? another extension
We organize intermittent crashes until we have enough young people with a vote to allow the referendum to go ahead :-)
''Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.''
I was looking at Major's result in 1997 the other day. 163 conservative seats FFS. 163.
It took to 2015 to build another 170. Two decades. If Labour had had a decent leader in 2010 and 2015, even that would have been in doubt.
I period of silence from Sir John, methinks.
Sigh....not entirely Majors fault was it. The right wing of the party held the Government to ransom (sound familiar). Obviously the ERM was disastrous and he was to blame, however by 1997
Sorry...by 1997 we had a strong economy but the divisions within the party wrecked any chance of electoral success.
Not true at all. It was not the divisions in that party that did for Major but his own idiocy over the ERM. He took us in as Chancellor then fought tooth and nail for us to stay in even when it was clear we were doomed. It doesn't matter at all that the economy was improving by 1997. The Tory reputation for sound economics had already been trashed by Major long before that.
I'm not trying to defend Major, at least with regard to the ERM. I am saying that the right of the party were at least responsible for the result in 1997 as well.
On the discussion downthread on roads in multiple Boroughs, there are at least two such roads in Greater Manchester: Upper Chorlton Road and Brooklands Road, both of which have one side in Manchester and the other in Trafford.
@BBCPhilipSim: Queensferry Crossing: adverse weather means contractors "unable to achieve target opening date of December 2016" https://t.co/MTQBxdCxtW
Ipressive centrefold pictures of the Third Forth Bridge in the SNP 2016 election manifesto with tagline "MARVEL ON THE FORTH. The £1.4 billion Queensferry Crossing is on time and on budget."
Is it my imagination that those rehashing their very well worn arguments against Scottish sovereignty & self determination are mainly Leavers? Interesting.
It always was the strangest logic. Exactly the same as being Pro-Indy but anti-Brexit. The same arguments should apply to both.
Not if you take the view that membership of the EU makes small states more viable.
Edit Not that I'm either anti or pro-indy. That's entirely a decision for the Scots to make.
Not really. They would lose more by joining the EU than they gain by leaving the UK.
More viable than it would otherwise be, I mean. I can understand Scots wanting independence from their domineering southern neighbour but being worried about going it alone in the world. Membership of a more distant EU (not directly controlling, but providing support with international issues) might be enough to reassure. A move towards a Europe of Regions, if you will.
Not my vision but I see your point.
By the way I forgot to mention yesterday that now I have read your postings over the last few weeks I realise you are a worthy successor to Steven Whaley. It is nice to have some committed Federalists on here arguing from principle rather than the usual Europhiles who pretend that the UK can have its cake and eat it or deny there is a movement for closer union because they know the British public do not agree with it.
From a Libertarian point of view I may not agree at all with your views but it is good to have more people on here arguing from a point of principle rather than expediency.
You are still wrong on man made GW though :-)
Thanks for acknowledging my point of view. It's good to see some proper exchanges today rather than the mudslinging into which PB sometimes degenerates. I doubt that I'm much of a successor to Steven Whaley given both the limited time I have available to spend here and my basic knowledge of economics and constitutional issues, but I do my best to argue coherently. Hopefully he'll be back.
And I'm not wrong about GW (that's more my area of expertise), but that's an argument for another day ;-)
Well he wouldn't want to put his old working class mum and dad's fat EU pensions in the spotlight now would he if Remain lost? Not with the frightful cost of ermine these days and all.
Editor Mike Smithson provides informed, intelligent analysis on key political events. Whether the outcome of the EU referendum or party leadership contests, this is the blog to go to if you want reasoned debate and, as the name suggests, a focus on political betting opportunities. The fact that Political Betting’s readership is formed largely of non-betters is testament to the quality of the content it produces.
whats betting Corbyn askes Cameron about the website crash denying thousands of poor youngesters their chance to shape Britain's future thanks to an e mail he had from someone who couldnt be bothered to sort themsleves out days or weeks ago
Corbyn doesn't normally ask the obvious question but today he is bound to ask for an extension of the period to register to vote in the referendum.
Not sure this is legally possible though. Who would be allowed to register late? Would they need to show they were prevented by the IT crash?
Is the government under a legal obligation to offer this service - or to offer it to the last-most second on which registration is legally possible? If not, then there's no case to answer.
I don't know, but I would suspect that there are general .Gov data and web services T&Cs that probably spell out somewhere in their depths that the government cannot be held responsible for glitches in service due to technical issues and it is the users responsibility to ensure etc etc
Nicola Sturgeon has made it clear that she will only call a referendum when she thinks she will win it and I think she has enough authority within the SNP to hold the line on that until 2020. Therefore Scotland to vote YES to independence before end 2020 at 10/1 is a better value bet than Next independence referendum before end 2020 at 5/1.
The 10/1 is on Scotland becoming independent before [Jan 1st] 2020, which I read as the referendum needing to be by the middle of 2017 at the latest. I'm not betting in this market but check the rules carefully if you do.
In that case, definitely not. And I think are too many variables at 10/1.
''Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.''
I was looking at Major's result in 1997 the other day. 163 conservative seats FFS. 163.
It took to 2015 to build another 170. Two decades. If Labour had had a decent leader in 2010 and 2015, even that would have been in doubt.
I period of silence from Sir John, methinks.
Sigh....not entirely Majors fault was it. The right wing of the party held the Government to ransom (sound familiar). Obviously the ERM was disastrous and he was to blame, however by 1997
Sorry...by 1997 we had a strong economy but the divisions within the party wrecked any chance of electoral success.
I'm of the view that it's the ever closer union that the EU has insisted on pursuing that's responsible for the divisions in the Conservative Party, not the other way round. If it had stayed at the single market (and gone no further) we would be having a very different political debate now and, in my view, a more healthy one.
You may not be interested in the EU, but the EU is interested in you.
I don't disagree with that at all. I'm a very reluctant Remainer, primarily voting that way out of loyalty and because economically I think it makes sense currently. I'm prepared to accept (unwillingly) some of the things about the EU I dislike for that reason. Its a very close call and I can understand Leavers feeling differently.
Does Sturgeon really want independence in the near future? Aren't they committed to retaining the Barnett formula for the foreseeable future? I thought they wanted economic powers so that Scotland would be ready for independence?
whats betting Corbyn askes Cameron about the website crash denying thousands of poor youngesters their chance to shape Britain's future thanks to an e mail he had from someone who couldnt be bothered to sort themsleves out days or weeks ago
Corbyn doesn't normally ask the obvious question but today he is bound to ask for an extension of the period to register to vote in the referendum.
Not sure this is legally possible though. Who would be allowed to register late? Would they need to show they were prevented by the IT crash?
Is the government under a legal obligation to offer this service - or to offer it to the last-most second on which registration is legally possible? If not, then there's no case to answer.
I don't know, but I would suspect that there are general .Gov data and web services T&Cs that probably spell out somewhere in their depths that the government cannot be held responsible for glitches in service due to technical issues and it is the users responsibility to ensure etc etc
Doesn't mean that the IT Dir or CIO of the Electoral Commission shouldn't be dragged to a Select Cttee (as a minimum) to explain the f***up though.
Did no-one think there would be a big spike in demand on the last day? As I said earlier if this happened in the private sector they would be pleading for their job today, and I work as an interim IT Director, usually after the last guy got fired for this sort of mess.
Ipressive centrefold pictures of the Third Forth Bridge in the SNP 2016 election manifesto with tagline "MARVEL ON THE FORTH. The £1.4 billion Queensferry Crossing is on time and on budget."
Did they know?
Nicola has other things to worry about right now.
Trying to stop her flagship Nosy Parker Named Person legislation emulating the first Tay bridge...
"One of the victims of this caution has been chief EU diplomat Federica Mogherini, who has spent recent months crafting the EU Global Strategy -- the first comprehensive foreign policy guidelines for the union since 2003. The original intention had been to present the paper in the coming days, but it has now been delayed.
Foreign and security policy still remain the domain of EU member states, and hardly any other union member is as insistent about its sovereignty as Britain. Furthermore, Mogherini's draft text includes ideas aimed at exploring stronger joint European defense efforts -- a potentially dangerous approach given that British tabloids passionately disparage any suggestion of a European army. Mogherini has now been forced to push her presentation back to June 24."
Nicola Sturgeon has made it clear that she will only call a referendum when she thinks she will win it and I think she has enough authority within the SNP to hold the line on that until 2020. Therefore Scotland to vote YES to independence before end 2020 at 10/1 is a better value bet than Next independence referendum before end 2020 at 5/1.
Whether either of them are good value is another matter. On my reading of history, constitutional change is most likely to happen at times of crisis and I think there will be a constitutional crisis if we Brexit, not least because Scotland will have voted against. Referendums are entirely about whether people a cross in this box or that box. It doesn't have to be meaningful or sensible. Enough people are quite likely to think I am going to vote Yes this time, even though the Scexit path will be even trickier than last time.
The other factor is how likely we are to Leave. Scotland being independent before 2020 is consequently even less likely if we Remain. If I put Leave at 3/1 that implies a clear majority of Scots being pro-independence as a result of leaving is also 3/1. That gets us to the overall 10/1 figure. Sounds about right, but there are a lot of variables in it.
The issue for me would partly be the 2020 figure. It is at least possible that the Leave vote in a couple of week's then leads to years of chaos and uncertainty and parliamentary games, even another GE to cement the result. At what point does SNP decide, sod this, Brexit is really happening?
I think the SNP are entirely opportunistic, in the sense that they will hold a referendum the moment it looks like they will win it. The calculation isn't whether they think Brexit will happen. They will be looking at the indyref polling.
At some point I am sure the activists in the party will force a real manifesto commitment to a new referendum, regardless of the situation with the polling, as happened with the Parti Quebecois recently. But I think Nicola Sturgeon has the dominance over her party, which also has remarkable discipline, to hold the line until at least 2020. In other words there won't be a referendum before 2020 unless Nicola Sturgeon is very confident of winning.
''Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.''
I was looking at Major's result in 1997 the other day. 163 conservative seats FFS. 163.
It took to 2015 to build another 170. Two decades. If Labour had had a decent leader in 2010 and 2015, even that would have been in doubt.
I period of silence from Sir John, methinks.
Sigh....not entirely Majors fault was it. The right wing of the party held the Government to ransom (sound familiar). Obviously the ERM was disastrous and he was to blame, however by 1997
Sorry...by 1997 we had a strong economy but the divisions within the party wrecked any chance of electoral success.
I'm of the view that it's the ever closer union that the EU has insisted on pursuing that's responsible for the divisions in the Conservative Party, not the other way round. If it had stayed at the single market (and gone no further) we would be having a very different political debate now and, in my view, a more healthy one.
You may not be interested in the EU, but the EU is interested in you.
I don't disagree with that at all. I'm a very reluctant Remainer, primarily voting that way out of loyalty and because economically I think it makes sense currently. I'm prepared to accept (unwillingly) some of the things about the EU I dislike for that reason. Its a very close call and I can understand Leavers feeling differently.
Richard makes a good point. The EU, (and especially in this country), seems to shy away from trying to evangelise for what "ever closer union" means. Why don't they spell it out, with a Commission blueprint for 2030? Here's what the constitution will be, this is how the voting works, here's the federal powers, yes there will be an army navy and airforce with one commander in Brussels. All kids are going to be taught one language (English, Latin, Esperanto?) as well as there own local language so that by 2090 everyone just about can talk to everyone else so we'll have a more shared media and culture (by which I mean Game of Thrones, or Grand Designs, or Eastenders, or some Italian quiz show not Beethoven's 5th or le Malade Imaginaire) etc etc.
Right now there'd of course be a cacophony of noise saying no, nein, non, but at least starting that debate really openly might finally start the process of getting the people actually on board in a tangible way, rather than this (to me) stealth, nudge nudge wink wink, we'll try and pull the wool over their eyes so that one day they will magically wake up in a country called "Europa" without ever realising quite how they got there.
I'm not necessarily against that as a future per se (though I'll be long dead), but I cannot support the current edifice that needs an almighty kick up the backside.
Tee, hee. Bernie swears he will continue to fight for the nomination.
Bernie Sanders' decision to stay in the race ensures the Democratic Party remains divided and sets the stage for potential conflict in Philadelphia in July.
He can't win but he vows to keep campaigning until the convention.
This must be Sanders cunning plan to discredit himself and ensure his supporters switch to Clinton.
It's a brilliant plan. The clear loser, who has just been absolutely thumped in Cali, despite claiming the race would be tight, hangs around pointlessly, like the grump in the corner. Meanwhile, Hillary goes on her victory lap, praises him, and looks magnanimous in victory. Advantage DEM.
Given that it's exactly what Hillary did in 2008, she doesn't have much room to criticise. besides, when has Sanders *not* been the grump in the corner?
Not really the same. 1) Democratic nomination in 2008 was quite a bit closer in delegates. 2) Sanders has lost the popular vote by quite a margin (well over 10% at present). Clinton actually beat Obama in the 2008 popular vote.
At least Mr Coburn can be relied upon to add to the gaiety of the nation......
Eurosceptics have long argued that Auntie is in league with Brussels, while a certain breed of Corbynista insist there’s dark collusion between political editor Laura Kuenssberg and No 10.
But it takes quite a special character to accuse the Beeb of exhibiting its bias via a rival broadcaster.
Editor Mike Smithson provides informed, intelligent analysis on key political events. Whether the outcome of the EU referendum or party leadership contests, this is the blog to go to if you want reasoned debate and, as the name suggests, a focus on political betting opportunities. The fact that Political Betting’s readership is formed largely of non-betters is testament to the quality of the content it produces.
...and potentially Sturgeon herself in an election overspend investigation by using a helicopter and not declaring the correct cost.
The referendum campaign is seriously hiding what would have been a huge story about election expenses in 2015, with every major party in up to their neck in it.
We still might get one or two prosecutions, but it's obvious the Electoral Commission need to urgently clarify what's counted as local and national election spending - if they don't change the rules completely for the 2020 General Election.
It's the Tories who are up to their neck in the election expenses story. They used a battlebus to bus in activist to help in specific constituencies. They have used legal means to try to avoid handing over information. They are quite naturally trying to say other parties did the same thing, but it doesn't appear to be working.
Nope, it's not a party political point. Guido has also fingered Nick Clegg, Cat Smith (Labour, possibly the worst offender for failing to declare her own campaign staff) and the SNP (who hired a branded helicopter to get around) as well as the Tories. All parties had battle buses and it seems that they all declared them incorrectly in the same way.
I haven't followed this closely but I don't see how the helicopter, which transported the party leader Nicola Sturgeon plus a couple of aides and had a big picture of Sturgeon on the side would count as local spending.
Editor Mike Smithson provides informed, intelligent analysis on key political events. Whether the outcome of the EU referendum or party leadership contests, this is the blog to go to if you want reasoned debate and, as the name suggests, a focus on political betting opportunities. The fact that Political Betting’s readership is formed largely of non-betters is testament to the quality of the content it produces.
At least Mr Coburn can be relied upon to add to the gaiety of the nation......
Eurosceptics have long argued that Auntie is in league with Brussels, while a certain breed of Corbynista insist there’s dark collusion between political editor Laura Kuenssberg and No 10.
But it takes quite a special character to accuse the Beeb of exhibiting its bias via a rival broadcaster.
Seriously, pointing out when Coburn has made a fool of himself is pretty much a full time job. Not worth the effort.
All Politicians say foolish things from time to time, but Mr Coburn is truly in a league of his own.....I think AngrySalmond nails it: I'm now convinced David Coburn is actually an elaborate performance art piece.
Editor Mike Smithson provides informed, intelligent analysis on key political events. Whether the outcome of the EU referendum or party leadership contests, this is the blog to go to if you want reasoned debate and, as the name suggests, a focus on political betting opportunities. The fact that Political Betting’s readership is formed largely of non-betters is testament to the quality of the content it produces.
Comments
The story I always remember about scalablity on websites was that BBC News online crashed on the day of the London bombings. Within months they had replications in every continent with first EMC then the fledgling AWS. Everyone now does the same, especially for video content.
The record is I believe still held by Obama's inaguration speech, watched online by 3.8m people simultaneously using platforms Akamai and Azure.
http://blog.streamingmedia.com/2015/02/super-bowl-stream.html
Exhibition Road is, afaik, the only road to be in two councils (rbkc & westminster).
I was just trying to be a smartarse. Ignore me.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/justice-home-affairs/news/eu-court-rules-illegal-migrants-cannot-be-jailed/
How this applies to Britain I'm not really sure, as our border is not technically an internal border, but the Schengen external border.
Prior to 2005, there wasn't a single Conservative MP openly committed to leaving the EU, now there are over a hundred.
When Hague was Tory leader, the party's European slogan was 'in Europe, not run by Europe' and it's central policy was to rule out membership of the Euro during the next parliament - in other words, to consider it possible post-2005/6. The Lib Dems, IIRC, were in favour; Labour retained an open mind subject to events.
In 2005, UKIP won only 2.2% of the vote - fewer than Goldsmith's Referendum Party in 1997 - and had only recently defeated a Big Three (as they then were) candidate at a by-election for the first time.
Put simply, those whose views haven't changed much in the last ten years have seen them shift either from the fringe to the mainstream or vice versa.
http://order-order.com/tag/election-expenses/
All parties equally guilty here, hence the need for clarification or rewriting of the rules by the Electoral Commission. But please not their employee Louise Edwards, who has shown herself to be somewhat less than impartial in her social media posts.
To put this into context, no-one can doubt the sincerity of my 'Leave' views. But back when I ran my university association in 2001-2004 I was pro-Eastern Europe expansion of the EU and pro-single market.
But I remember being extremely nervous about the euro and, prior to the Iraq War, I had a couple of moments in 2001-2002 where I seriously worried the Pound was doomed.
Moneyball for politics, or the future of polling...
http://www.wired.com/2016/06/civis-election-polling-clinton-sanders-trump
The lesson for news junkies is a simple one: As Election Day approaches, don’t pay attention to the headlines about what the polls say—these won’t be rigorous enough or accurate enough to detect what’s really happening. As Shor says, “Campaigns have access to high-quality polling, and the public generally doesn’t.” Instead, watch what the candidates are actually doing on the ground. It’s like boxing: Sophisticated observers know that the sparring up top matters less than the footwork, which predicts when and where a punch will land.
Shor points back to the Michigan example from 2012. “The fact that the Obama campaign wasn’t spending money, that kind of speaks for itself. Look at where they’re spending. Look at where they’re adding staff. That’s where they think they’ll be competitive.” In other words, if Donald Trump tells you he’s going to have a “yuuuggge” victory in a state like New York or Pennsylvania, check whether Hillary Clinton is moving staff there before you take him at his word. The data might not back it up.
After Sunderland (LEAVE lead of 6.2%) his cumulative figures gives a lead for REMAIN for the next fifty results until Broxbourne which has a projected LEAVE lead of 26%. LEAVE then goes into the lead cumulatively. It's going to be a roller-coaster night.
@BBCTomEdwards: NEW: @MayorofLondon confirms fares freeze will not cover travelcards, daily caps, monthly Oyster cards
By the way I forgot to mention yesterday that now I have read your postings over the last few weeks I realise you are a worthy successor to Steven Whaley. It is nice to have some committed Federalists on here arguing from principle rather than the usual Europhiles who pretend that the UK can have its cake and eat it or deny there is a movement for closer union because they know the British public do not agree with it.
From a Libertarian point of view I may not agree at all with your views but it is good to have more people on here arguing from a point of principle rather than expediency.
You are still wrong on man made GW though :-)
I think Nigel Lawson gets too easily forgiven for his shadow ERM policy, which stored up many of the problems that bit Lamont and Major.
You may not be interested in the EU, but the EU is interested in you.
"Once a beacon of progressive politics, the Netherlands today is a traumatised, angry and deeply confused nation. Support for immigration and the European project are at all-time lows. Synagogues and Jewish schools need police protection from homegrown jihadists, and freedom of expression is under serious pressure."
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/06/netherlands-eu-immigration-liberalism-european?CMP=share_btn_tw
The NHS is one issue that could get some Remain voters off their backsides to vote.Labour is highlighting this today.For Remain,the NHS needs to get up the saliance list-Sir John Major has made a very good start.
Very similar analysis to that.
I'm not arguing he wasn't to blame. I'm pointing out that by 1997 the economy was healthy, and indeed the Tories still led Labour on economic competence going into that election.
Whether the right like it or not their lack of discipline, combined with a popular Labour leader and a Government that had been in power for 18 years were also contributory factors to that defeat.
If we leave, then electorates may want to wait and see how things pan out for the UK. If we stay, they don't have a wait-and-see option which could act as a pressure valve for sceptic sentiment.
Not sure this is legally possible though. Who would be allowed to register late? Would they need to show they were prevented by the IT crash?
If Leave win then every economic hiccup will have a mirror in the realm of Schadenfreude’s cat. Inflation up? Its down in the unreachable kingdom of ‘Remain’. Unemployment up? Over there there are jobs to spare. Their trade is balanced, their rights are freer than ever, even their agricultural policy is common enough for a tomato ketchup sandwich and a flutter on the dogs. June 23 2016 will mark the end of a golden age and everything bad that happens from that date forward will be the fault of those who voted to Leave. Everything from that time forward, be it economic, environmental, political, act of God, will be less than 6 steps removed from “…because we voted to leave the EU!”
https://excelpope.wordpress.com/2016/06/07/246/
@gabyhinsliff: #extendthedeadline now a row between ppl who think it's fair having to do PE in your pants if you forgot your kit, & nature's kit-forgetters
Well, given the appalling level of incompetence and downright mendacity from both campaigns, the good figures can easily be spun as a last gasp before Britain becomes a barren, tortured wasteland once cast adrift from the European mothership.
I shan't be commenting on the referendum proper; minds on here are long since made up. I would simply say this to both campaigns - I'm not angry, just very disappointed. Where did your Mother and I go wrong?
Meanwhile, a Remain win ensures that the £350 million per week – whether it’s real or not, whether it could or would be spent on the NHS or not – will become the hardest working money in healthcare. If hospitals are understaffed then the £350 million would have fixed that, as well as removing the need to charge visitors for parking, making sure your GP didn’t have a West Indian accent and could be visited this epoch. If your granny has a fall and fractures her skull then under the super-funded NHS she’d have already been equipped with a gyroscopic exoskeleton, she’d have been less little old lady and more The six million dollar nan (and in that world there’s no chance that $6m would be worth significantly more than £350m). Every single migrant will be the fault of those who voted to stay in the EU; whether they’re lazing about claiming benefits, stealing an Englishman’s job, poking their foreign nose into local issues or simply refusing to integrate.
I'm not particularly struck on the bet on an independence referendum before 2020 either. I can only see Nicola Sturgeon insisting on one being held if she is confident of winning. Current polling suggests that she won't be confident of winning, even in the event of Brexit.
Whether either of them are good value is another matter. On my reading of history, constitutional change is most likely to happen at times of crisis and I think there will be a constitutional crisis if we Brexit, not least because Scotland will have voted against. Referendums are entirely about whether people a cross in this box or that box. It doesn't have to be meaningful or sensible. Enough people are quite likely to think I am going to vote Yes this time, even though the Scexit path will be even trickier than last time.
The other factor is how likely we are to Leave. Scotland being independent before 2020 is consequently even less likely if we Remain. If I put Leave at 3/1 that implies a clear majority of Scots being pro-independence as a result of leaving is also 3/1. That gets us to the overall 10/1 figure. Sounds about right, but there are a lot of variables in it.
Personally I voted Leave (by post)
My finger in the air attempt to decide a route to 50% overall for leave from GE2015 voters, then apply back to Sunderland to determine the par score:
95% of UKIP GE2015 vote = 12.1%
60% of Con GE2015 vote = 22.1%
36% of Lab / SNP vote = 12.6%
60% of Plaid / Ulster Unionist vote = 1.0%
20% of LD / Green vote = 2.3% = 50.1% Leave
Applying back to Sunderland:
53.4% Lab vote = 19.2% Leave
20.1% UKIP vote = 19.6% Leave
20.3% Conservative vote = 12.2% Leave
5.7% LD/Green vote = 1.1% Leave
0.5% Other = 0.2% Leave
So my guess a at par figure, which would leave the UK as a whole on a knife edge, would be 52.3% Leave in Sunderland.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/1244582/man-crashes-tv-interview-with-jeremy-corbyn-by-flashing-his-bare-bottom/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-TheSunNewspaper-_-20160608-_-Politics-_-486486263-_-Imageandlink
I can't see how extending registration prejudices anyone else.
https://twitter.com/Jacqui_Smith1/status/740480191978426368
It's so WTF
Did they know?
And I'm not wrong about GW (that's more my area of expertise), but that's an argument for another day ;-)
They say
Editor Mike Smithson provides informed, intelligent analysis on key political events. Whether the outcome of the EU referendum or party leadership contests, this is the blog to go to if you want reasoned debate and, as the name suggests, a focus on political betting opportunities. The fact that Political Betting’s readership is formed largely of non-betters is testament to the quality of the content it produces.
http://www.vuelio.com/uk/social-media-index/top-10-uk-political-blogs/
Did no-one think there would be a big spike in demand on the last day? As I said earlier if this happened in the private sector they would be pleading for their job today, and I work as an interim IT Director, usually after the last guy got fired for this sort of mess.
Trying to stop her flagship
Nosy ParkerNamed Person legislation emulating the first Tay bridge...Mr. Eagles, I think we all know that the readership yearns for discussion of the Second Punic War, Byzantium, the Diadochi and F1.
[It's not too dissimilar to my own view, but I fall the other side of the fence and simply don't trust the EU].
http://m.spiegel.de/international/europe/a-1094261.html#spRedirectedFrom=www&referrrer=https://t.co/UG4NoDcLK1
"One of the victims of this caution has been chief EU diplomat Federica Mogherini, who has spent recent months crafting the EU Global Strategy -- the first comprehensive foreign policy guidelines for the union since 2003. The original intention had been to present the paper in the coming days, but it has now been delayed.
Foreign and security policy still remain the domain of EU member states, and hardly any other union member is as insistent about its sovereignty as Britain. Furthermore, Mogherini's draft text includes ideas aimed at exploring stronger joint European defense efforts -- a potentially dangerous approach given that British tabloids passionately disparage any suggestion of a European army. Mogherini has now been forced to push her presentation back to June 24."
Don't say you weren't warned.
@MrHarryCole: Dominic Raab not happy about being called a Little Englander by the PM: https://t.co/OIs3opv82j
Expect it to be used incessantly from now on
At some point I am sure the activists in the party will force a real manifesto commitment to a new referendum, regardless of the situation with the polling, as happened with the Parti Quebecois recently. But I think Nicola Sturgeon has the dominance over her party, which also has remarkable discipline, to hold the line until at least 2020. In other words there won't be a referendum before 2020 unless Nicola Sturgeon is very confident of winning.
See what I've just posted.
@ Feersum Enjineeya
Richard makes a good point. The EU, (and especially in this country), seems to shy away from trying to evangelise for what "ever closer union" means. Why don't they spell it out, with a Commission blueprint for 2030? Here's what the constitution will be, this is how the voting works, here's the federal powers, yes there will be an army navy and airforce with one commander in Brussels. All kids are going to be taught one language (English, Latin, Esperanto?) as well as there own local language so that by 2090 everyone just about can talk to everyone else so we'll have a more shared media and culture (by which I mean Game of Thrones, or Grand Designs, or Eastenders, or some Italian quiz show not Beethoven's 5th or le Malade Imaginaire) etc etc.
Right now there'd of course be a cacophony of noise saying no, nein, non, but at least starting that debate really openly might finally start the process of getting the people actually on board in a tangible way, rather than this (to me) stealth, nudge nudge wink wink, we'll try and pull the wool over their eyes so that one day they will magically wake up in a country called "Europa" without ever realising quite how they got there.
I'm not necessarily against that as a future per se (though I'll be long dead), but I cannot support the current edifice that needs an almighty kick up the backside.
1) Democratic nomination in 2008 was quite a bit closer in delegates.
2) Sanders has lost the popular vote by quite a margin (well over 10% at present).
Clinton actually beat Obama in the 2008 popular vote.
This website is infinitely better than Guido, Labour List and Wings!
And you should get a hat-tip as deputy ed too, btw.
Dominic Raab not happy about being called a Little Englander by the PM: https://t.co/OIs3opv82j
Vote Leave reveal Cypriot estate agent brochure offering passports for sale to Russians, giving them EU citizenship. https://t.co/jkP9GRYI2C