politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A proxy bet for a Leave victory
Comments
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Bad Gateway 504 for a while.RobD said:
Yeah, it is more difficult to assess with a website. There are reports you just couldn't even get to the website. Does that count as queuing up? Then comes the hassle of determining which would be electors were in the "queue". Much easier just to extend it by 24 hours (not the end of the world), and have a more sensible deadline in the very early hours when 90% of the country will be asleep.Casino_Royale said:
I think the deadline should stand. Unless they were logged in *prior* to midnight and then the website crashed.RobD said:
Yeah, I know, and it should definitely be extended for a day.not_on_fire said:
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.RobD said:Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
There has to be a cut-off somewhere so councils have time to update their registers and issue postal votes.
By the same token, I would have sympathy for anyone in a queue to vote prior to 10pm, and think they should be entitled to vote.
I would not have sympathy with someone who turned up at 10.01pm and started banging on the doors of the polling station.0 -
Neither do I (see my original comment). Saying that, not_on_fire makes a good point, the deadline by law was midnight, but voting registration was no longer possible past ~10pm. Extending it for a day and a bit to 4/5am is probably the way to avoid a huge demand on the server in the final minutes.Casino_Royale said:
I'm afraid Rob I don't have much sympathy for the disorganised leaving it to the last minute.RobD said:
Yeah, it is more difficult to assess with a website. There are reports you just couldn't even get to the website. Does that count as queuing up? Then comes the hassle of determining which would be electors were in the "queue". Much easier just to extend it by 24 hours (not the end of the world), and have a more sensible deadline in the very early hours when 90% of the country will be asleep.Casino_Royale said:
I think the deadline should stand. Unless they were logged in *prior* to midnight and then the website crashed.RobD said:
Yeah, I know, and it should definitely be extended for a day.not_on_fire said:
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.RobD said:Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
There has to be a cut-off somewhere so councils have time to update their registers and issue postal votes.
By the same token, I would have sympathy for anyone in a queue to vote prior to 10pm, and think they should be entitled to vote.
I would not have sympathy with someone who turned up at 10.01pm and started banging on the doors of the polling station.
An extension will just cause the same problem all over again.0 -
I don't see Leavers demanding to keep the Euro. Big difference from your failed campaign.Theuniondivvie said:Is it my imagination that those rehashing their very well worn arguments against Scottish sovereignty & self determination are mainly Leavers?
Interesting.0 -
What about anyone who went to the website prior to midnight but couldn't log in because it had crashed? That's the same thing isn't it.Casino_Royale said:
I think the deadline should stand. Unless they were logged in *prior* to midnight and then the website crashed.RobD said:
Yeah, I know, and it should definitely be extended for a day.not_on_fire said:
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.RobD said:Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
There has to be a cut-off somewhere so councils have time to update their registers and issue postal votes.
By the same token, I would have sympathy for anyone in a queue to vote prior to 10pm, and think they should be entitled to vote.
I would not have sympathy with someone who turned up at 10.01pm and started banging on the doors of the polling station.0 -
I thought last night clearly exposed Nigel Farage's limitations as a politician, but he seems to have done better than I thought.0
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It always was the strangest logic. Exactly the same as being Pro-Indy but anti-Brexit. The same arguments should apply to both.Theuniondivvie said:Is it my imagination that those rehashing their very well worn arguments against Scottish sovereignty & self determination are mainly Leavers?
Interesting.0 -
Complete joke. She was the one that said Ukip got 3%. ITV should do a much better job of vetting these people - it's not exactly difficult to Google these people.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. D, a woman who questioned Farage regarding migration, racism and so forth [didn't watch it, hence lack of detail] is Imriel Morgan, apparently a Huffington Post journalist/diversity activist.
Some on Twitter (obviously open to being wrong) suggest she isn't British, which does raise a question of whether she has a vote.
Edited extra bit: Morgan herself has said she isn't a journalist, but there is a furore about it.0 -
Yes the issue will then be "oh but I turned up at the polling booth at 10.30 and they wouldn't let me vote. Why can't I have an extension as well".Casino_Royale said:
I'm afraid Rob I don't have much sympathy for the disorganised leaving it to the last minute.RobD said:
Yeah, it is more difficult to assess with a website. There are reports you just couldn't even get to the website. Does that count as queuing up? Then comes the hassle of determining which would be electors were in the "queue". Much easier just to extend it by 24 hours (not the end of the world), and have a more sensible deadline in the very early hours when 90% of the country will be asleep.Casino_Royale said:
I think the deadline should stand. Unless they were logged in *prior* to midnight and then the website crashed.RobD said:
Yeah, I know, and it should definitely be extended for a day.not_on_fire said:
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.RobD said:Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
There has to be a cut-off somewhere so councils have time to update their registers and issue postal votes.
By the same token, I would have sympathy for anyone in a queue to vote prior to 10pm, and think they should be entitled to vote.
I would not have sympathy with someone who turned up at 10.01pm and started banging on the doors of the polling station.
An extension will just cause the same problem all over again.
You have to have been living under a rock not to get registered over the past few weeks, and just like anything else in life if you insist on leaving it all to the last minute you leave yourself far more open to things going wrong precisely because you've not left any wiggle room.
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I don't see any claims of Labour/Lib Dem bus expenses being okayed, just a minor point on leaflets.logical_song said:
It's the Tories who are up to their neck in the election expenses story. They used a battlebus to bus in activist to help in specific constituencies. They have used legal means to try to avoid handing over information. They are quite naturally trying to say other parties did the same thing, but it doesn't appear to be working.Sandpit said:
The referendum campaign is seriously hiding what would have been a huge story about election expenses in 2015, with every major party in up to their neck in it.OchEye said:...and potentially Sturgeon herself in an election overspend investigation by using a helicopter and not declaring the correct cost.
We still might get one or two prosecutions, but it's obvious the Electoral Commission need to urgently clarify what's counted as local and national election spending - if they don't change the rules completely for the 2020 General Election.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36271515
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36231138
http://www.markpack.org.uk/140952/adrian-sanders-election-expenses/
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The LDs are toast - no-one cares about Farron (perhaps unfairly)welshowl said:
Fair point. Why is Cameron so totally front and centre? Leave might do well to have broader church more visible.NickPalmer said:
Red Box say that 80% of the 2500 people who signed up declared themselves as pro-Brexit before the debate, so not weighted. However, they add:PlatoSaid said:On the last thread, I posted the graphs from Times Red Box debate polling - and Farage led by quite a margin. Anyone know if it was weighted or just anyone online?
"Farage was notably more popular with his supporters than the PM. Overall, he had an average rating of 94 per cent among Leavers, 15 per cent among Remainers and 63 per cent among Undecideds.
Cameron managed only 86 per cent among Remainers - who are on his side - with 29 per cent among Undecideds and just 4 per cent with Leavers."
As both politicians have people who agree with them on this but don't like them in other ways, I wouldn't put too much weight on this, but it suggests that people who declared themselves (hmm) to be undecided at the start liked Farage more.
Because he (and evveryone else) doesn't get to decide when he's on TV. The channels invite whom they choose to invite.rottenborough said:Pienaar: "MP after MP has returned to Westminster with depressing tales from their home turf; of door-knocking in staunchly Labour areas where apathy towards the EU question has given way to rank hostility. One former minister contacted dozens of local Labour councillors urging them
This really is slipping away from Remain.
Why the hell isn't Alan Johnson on our TV screens every five minutes urging Labour voters to get a grip of themselves instead of the Corbyn and Watson roadshow?
I do think that the debate schedule is light on Labour people, and wonder how the channels square that with the purdash requirement for political neutrality. Of course it's more exciting to have Cameron (vote Leave and World War 3 will follow) vs Farage (vote Remain and a lot of foreigners will rape you) than Corbyn or Johnson (the EU isn't great but better on balance), but the broadcasters aren't supposed to be only about excitement.
Labour are led by a closet Leaver.
The Greens are tiny.
The SNP have a different agenda.
The Tories are split. That leaves the PM.
If Leave win, political stories will be told stitching all the above together and anchoring back to the GE2015 result and Cameron's deal.
Conversely, if Remain win, a different but equally compelling story will be told about the split Leave campaigns, the economic prospectus, and slick/professional choreography of the Remain campaign and its better organisation.
Both will be true in either event, but the losing side will be forgotten.0 -
Given that we now have a service like Amazon AWS*, that with a little planning can cheaply scale any website almost indefinitely by the hour, public sector IT directors need to start falling on their swords for this kind of cockup. It will be the same again with the HMRC website on 31st January, because it always is.Alanbrooke said:
But the rules do say if you cant organise yourself you cant vote, you have months to do it.not_on_fire said:
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.RobD said:Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
The web crash affected 50,000 people, I don't see how opening up and letting all and sundry on is fair either.
Likewise since anyone with half an ounce of sense could see there have been repeated last minute registrations the Electoral Commission should not have been taken by surprise.
What are the odds any of them lose their jobs ?
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_Web_Services0 -
The Scottish people should choose whether or not they are part of the UK.Richard_Tyndall said:
It always was the strangest logic. Exactly the same as being Pro-Indy but anti-Brexit. The same arguments should apply to both.Theuniondivvie said:Is it my imagination that those rehashing their very well worn arguments against Scottish sovereignty & self determination are mainly Leavers?
Interesting.
Mentioning inconvenient fiscal facts does not make one an opponent of Scottish independence. It makes you a realist.0 -
Mr. Tyndall, it'd be legitimate to describe Mr. T as a travel journalist, (although bestselling author would probably come first).0
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Good UK industrial production numbers just out. (Alanbrooke, does that include you?)0
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Was nice to have William Hague getting air time this morning for Remain. The more we see of affable types who are (relatively) trusted across the board in the final two weeks, taking some of the burden / limelight from Cameron, the better. Alan Johnson was mentioned down thread - a very similar principle.
Cause to regret - an LD figure would also be good, Paddy is all well and good, but as I thought about this post, I got a deep pang of regret that we do not have Charles Kennedy any more, especially a Charles Kennedy at his peak. He would have been great in all this.0 -
Yes.Philip_Thompson said:
What about anyone who went to the website prior to midnight but couldn't log in because it had crashed? That's the same thing isn't it.Casino_Royale said:
I think the deadline should stand. Unless they were logged in *prior* to midnight and then the website crashed.RobD said:
Yeah, I know, and it should definitely be extended for a day.not_on_fire said:
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.RobD said:Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
There has to be a cut-off somewhere so councils have time to update their registers and issue postal votes.
By the same token, I would have sympathy for anyone in a queue to vote prior to 10pm, and think they should be entitled to vote.
I would not have sympathy with someone who turned up at 10.01pm and started banging on the doors of the polling station.0 -
I meant "Remain" (!) - not Leave!!welshowl said:
Fair point. Why is Cameron so totally front and centre? Leave might do well to have broader church more visible.NickPalmer said:
Red Box say that 80% of the 2500 people who signed up declared themselves as pro-Brexit before the debate, so not weighted. However, they add:PlatoSaid said:On the last thread, I posted the graphs from Times Red Box debate polling - and Farage led by quite a margin. Anyone know if it was weighted or just anyone online?
"Farage was notably more popular with his supporters than the PM. Overall, he had an average rating of 94 per cent among Leavers, 15 per cent among Remainers and 63 per cent among Undecideds.
Cameron managed only 86 per cent among Remainers - who are on his side - with 29 per cent among Undecideds and just 4 per cent with Leavers."
As both politicians have people who agree with them on this but don't like them in other ways, I wouldn't put too much weight on this, but it suggests that people who declared themselves (hmm) to be undecided at the start liked Farage more.
Because he (and evveryone else) doesn't get to decide when he's on TV. The channels invite whom they choose to invite.rottenborough said:Pienaar: "MP after MP has returned to Westminster with depressing tales from their home turf; of door-knocking in staunchly Labour areas where apathy towards the EU question has given way to rank hostility. One former minister contacted dozens of local Labour councillors urging them to mobilise behind the Remain campaign. To the MP's fury, the appeal elicited one single reply."
This really is slipping away from Remain.
Why the hell isn't Alan Johnson on our TV screens every five minutes urging Labour voters to get a grip of themselves instead of the Corbyn and Watson roadshow?
I do think that the debate schedule is light on Labour people, and wonder how the channels square that with the purdash requirement for political neutrality. Of course it's more exciting to have Cameron (vote Leave and World War 3 will follow) vs Farage (vote Remain and a lot of foreigners will rape you) than Corbyn or Johnson (the EU isn't great but better on balance), but the broadcasters aren't supposed to be only about excitement.0 -
But in fact they turned up at the booth at 8:00, only to find the pencil not working.welshowl said:
Yes the issue will then be "oh but I turned up at the polling booth at 10.30 and they wouldn't let me vote. Why can't I have an extension as well".Casino_Royale said:
I'm afraid Rob I don't have much sympathy for the disorganised leaving it to the last minute.RobD said:
Yeah, it is more difficult to assess with a website. There are reports you just couldn't even get to the website. Does that count as queuing up? Then comes the hassle of determining which would be electors were in the "queue". Much easier just to extend it by 24 hours (not the end of the world), and have a more sensible deadline in the very early hours when 90% of the country will be asleep.Casino_Royale said:
I think the deadline should stand. Unless they were logged in *prior* to midnight and then the website crashed.RobD said:
Yeah, I know, and it should definitely be extended for a day.not_on_fire said:
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.RobD said:Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
There has to be a cut-off somewhere so councils have time to update their registers and issue postal votes.
By the same token, I would have sympathy for anyone in a queue to vote prior to 10pm, and think they should be entitled to vote.
I would not have sympathy with someone who turned up at 10.01pm and started banging on the doors of the polling station.
An extension will just cause the same problem all over again.
You have to have been living under a rock not to get registered over the past few weeks, and just like anything else in life if you insist on leaving it all to the last minute you leave yourself far more open to things going wrong precisely because you've not left any wiggle room.0 -
I wouldn't allow anyone with the profile of SeanT near these audiences. Most people watching wouldn't know who he is, but he has an online presence and writes regularly for publications.Richard_Tyndall said:Not sure what the
Blogs for the Huff Post.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. D, a woman who questioned Farage regarding migration, racism and so forth [didn't watch it, hence lack of detail] is Imriel Morgan, apparently a Huffington Post journalist/diversity activist.
Some on Twitter (obviously open to being wrong) suggest she isn't British, which does raise a question of whether she has a vote.
Edited extra bit: Morgan herself has said she isn't a journalist, but there is a furore about it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/imriel-morgan/
Not sure what the cut off is these days between journalist and blogger. Does SeanT count himself as a journalist?0 -
Not if you take the view that membership of the EU makes small states more viable.Richard_Tyndall said:
It always was the strangest logic. Exactly the same as being Pro-Indy but anti-Brexit. The same arguments should apply to both.Theuniondivvie said:Is it my imagination that those rehashing their very well worn arguments against Scottish sovereignty & self determination are mainly Leavers?
Interesting.
Edit Not that I'm either anti or pro-indy. That's entirely a decision for the Scots to make.0 -
Since every poor figure seems to be blamed on the threat of Brexit by Osborne, will he credit the threat of Brexit with these good ones?rcs1000 said:Good UK industrial production numbers just out. (Alanbrooke, does that include you?)
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Nope, it's not a party political point. Guido has also fingered Nick Clegg, Cat Smith (Labour, possibly the worst offender for failing to declare her own campaign staff) and the SNP (who hired a branded helicopter to get around) as well as the Tories. All parties had battle buses and it seems that they all declared them incorrectly in the same way.logical_song said:
It's the Tories who are up to their neck in the election expenses story. They used a battlebus to bus in activist to help in specific constituencies. They have used legal means to try to avoid handing over information. They are quite naturally trying to say other parties did the same thing, but it doesn't appear to be working.Sandpit said:
The referendum campaign is seriously hiding what would have been a huge story about election expenses in 2015, with every major party in up to their neck in it.OchEye said:...and potentially Sturgeon herself in an election overspend investigation by using a helicopter and not declaring the correct cost.
We still might get one or two prosecutions, but it's obvious the Electoral Commission need to urgently clarify what's counted as local and national election spending - if they don't change the rules completely for the 2020 General Election.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36271515
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36231138
http://www.markpack.org.uk/140952/adrian-sanders-election-expenses/0 -
I wouldn't allow SeanT near anyone I lovedtlg86 said:
I wouldn't allow anyone with the profile of SeanT near these audiences. Most people watching wouldn't know who he is, but he has an online presence and writes regularly for publications.Richard_Tyndall said:Not sure what the
Blogs for the Huff Post.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. D, a woman who questioned Farage regarding migration, racism and so forth [didn't watch it, hence lack of detail] is Imriel Morgan, apparently a Huffington Post journalist/diversity activist.
Some on Twitter (obviously open to being wrong) suggest she isn't British, which does raise a question of whether she has a vote.
Edited extra bit: Morgan herself has said she isn't a journalist, but there is a furore about it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/imriel-morgan/
Not sure what the cut off is these days between journalist and blogger. Does SeanT count himself as a journalist?0 -
It does - but at the expense of contributor states - Germany, Uk...FeersumEnjineeya said:
Not if you take the view that membership of the EU makes small states more viable.Richard_Tyndall said:
It always was the strangest logic. Exactly the same as being Pro-Indy but anti-Brexit. The same arguments should apply to both.Theuniondivvie said:Is it my imagination that those rehashing their very well worn arguments against Scottish sovereignty & self determination are mainly Leavers?
Interesting.
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Nigel Farage twice as popular as Chris Evans...
@marksweney: ITV's referendum debate with David Cameron and Nigel Farage attracts 4m viewers.0 -
Not really. They would lose more by joining the EU than they gain by leaving the UK.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Not if you take the view that membership of the EU makes small states more viable.Richard_Tyndall said:
It always was the strangest logic. Exactly the same as being Pro-Indy but anti-Brexit. The same arguments should apply to both.Theuniondivvie said:Is it my imagination that those rehashing their very well worn arguments against Scottish sovereignty & self determination are mainly Leavers?
Interesting.
Edit Not that I'm either anti or pro-indy. That's entirely a decision for the Scots to make.0 -
@ RobD
Yes, but if I reasonably thought there was going to be an almighty rush to the booth I might just think it wise to saunter down a bit earlier just to be safe. Maybe I am still of a generation that is mildly amazed when the IT actually works and so anticipate that thousands accessing a Govt website in a rush might just cause a few problems as we all know how utterly marvellous Govt IT projects have been over the years.
In fairness I'm probably slightly paranoid about these things but sometimes that's not a bad position.0 -
I wasn't talking about that. I was talking about those who actively opposed Independence on the grounds that it diminished Scotland. There were plenty of those.rcs1000 said:
The Scottish people should choose whether or not they are part of the UK.Richard_Tyndall said:
It always was the strangest logic. Exactly the same as being Pro-Indy but anti-Brexit. The same arguments should apply to both.Theuniondivvie said:Is it my imagination that those rehashing their very well worn arguments against Scottish sovereignty & self determination are mainly Leavers?
Interesting.
Mentioning inconvenient fiscal facts does not make one an opponent of Scottish independence. It makes you a realist.0 -
I agree. CK was always a good campaigner and had a good trust element with the public.Pro_Rata said:Was nice to have William Hague getting air time this morning for Remain. The more we see of affable types who are (relatively) trusted across the board in the final two weeks, taking some of the burden / limelight from Cameron, the better. Alan Johnson was mentioned down thread - a very similar principle.
Cause to regret - an LD figure would also be good, Paddy is all well and good, but as I thought about this post, I got a deep pang of regret that we do not have Charles Kennedy any more, especially a Charles Kennedy at his peak. He would have been great in all this.
His impact might well have been a couple of percent which in a close race was likely to have been determinative.0 -
You're ignoring the turn-off factor of Dodgy Dave.Scott_P said:Nigel Farage twice as popular as Chris Evans...
@marksweney: ITV's referendum debate with David Cameron and Nigel Farage attracts 4m viewers.0 -
The problem is that there's no way of knowing who that is.Casino_Royale said:
Yes.Philip_Thompson said:
What about anyone who went to the website prior to midnight but couldn't log in because it had crashed? That's the same thing isn't it.Casino_Royale said:
I think the deadline should stand. Unless they were logged in *prior* to midnight and then the website crashed.RobD said:
Yeah, I know, and it should definitely be extended for a day.not_on_fire said:
Obviously leaving it to the last minute to register is not a wise idea. But being disorganised shouldn't mean you don't get to vote. Whoever failed to setup the website to cope with a predictably high level of demand is the real culprit here.RobD said:Call me a grumpy git, but I have zero sympathy for people who leave their voter registration until less than 2 hours before the deadline. Unless they've been living under a rock, they can't have missed the fact there is a referendum coming up.
There has to be a cut-off somewhere so councils have time to update their registers and issue postal votes.
By the same token, I would have sympathy for anyone in a queue to vote prior to 10pm, and think they should be entitled to vote.
I would not have sympathy with someone who turned up at 10.01pm and started banging on the doors of the polling station.
It's akin to turning up to vote only to find that someone has pulled the fire alarm and the polling station has been closed for the night.0 -
I think it is reasonable to assume the website won't break. It didn't before the 2015 GE for instance.welshowl said:@ RobD
Yes, but if I reasonably thought there was going to be an almighty rush to the booth I might just think it wise to saunter down a bit earlier just to be safe. Maybe I am still of a generation that is mildly amazed when the IT actually works and so anticipate that thousands accessing a Govt website in a rush might just cause a few problems as we all know how utterly marvellous Govt IT projects have been over the years.
In fairness I'm probably slightly paranoid about these things but sometimes that's not a bad position.0 -
In Osborne's office....
manufacturing is booming!
F8ck!
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Experts? What do they know?SouthamObserver said:As this is a thread about Scotland, I'll just leave this here ...
We are now at the stage where we just have to hope that the Leave side is right about the economic consequences of Brexit. The parallels with the Scottish independence referendum are really uncanny in so many ways.
Throughout that campaign the Yes side rubbished every No warning and talked about Project Fear. Independence, they said, would set Scotland free to plot a path to prosperity that Westminster - which took far more from Scotland than it gave back - would never deliver. When No said that the Scottish economy was too reliant on oil revenues this was dismissed. Oil is just a bonus, the Yes side said; and, in any case, we are heading towards a new boom. The experts are talking Scotland down, they are never right, this is just the establishment seeking to protect itself and its vested interests.
Turns out, though, that the establishment was right. That the experts did know what they were talking about. That the data and the stats the Yes side produced were completely wrong. That all the assurances they gave and the claims they made were false. It turns out that if Scotland had voted for independence it would now be embroiled in financial and economic catastrophe. It turns out that Yes was completely and utterly wrong.
Let us hope that Leave aren't wrong. Because if they are, it is going to get very, very unpleasant for a great many of this country's people very quickly.
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Time for me to do an Osborne as next Tory leader piece.taffys said:In Osborne's office....
manufacturing is booming!
F8ck!0 -
I agree it shouldn't break, but I would have the mindset that I will build myself some "insurance" that it will.RobD said:
I think it is reasonable to assume the website won't break. It didn't before the 2015 GE for instance.welshowl said:@ RobD
Yes, but if I reasonably thought there was going to be an almighty rush to the booth I might just think it wise to saunter down a bit earlier just to be safe. Maybe I am still of a generation that is mildly amazed when the IT actually works and so anticipate that thousands accessing a Govt website in a rush might just cause a few problems as we all know how utterly marvellous Govt IT projects have been over the years.
In fairness I'm probably slightly paranoid about these things but sometimes that's not a bad position.
Probably says more about me than anything about the IT!
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Fixed it for yarcs1000 said:
I wouldn't allow SeanT near anyone I lovedtlg86 said:
I wouldn't allow anyone with the profile of SeanT near these audiences. Most people watching wouldn't know who he is, but he has an online presence and writes regularly for publications.Richard_Tyndall said:Not sure what the
Blogs for the Huff Post.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. D, a woman who questioned Farage regarding migration, racism and so forth [didn't watch it, hence lack of detail] is Imriel Morgan, apparently a Huffington Post journalist/diversity activist.
Some on Twitter (obviously open to being wrong) suggest she isn't British, which does raise a question of whether she has a vote.
Edited extra bit: Morgan herself has said she isn't a journalist, but there is a furore about it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/imriel-morgan/
Not sure what the cut off is these days between journalist and blogger. Does SeanT count himself as a journalist?
See you both tonight0 -
Master Strategist, King of the Northern Powerhouse...TheScreamingEagles said:
Time for me to do an Osborne as next Tory leader piece.taffys said:In Osborne's office....
manufacturing is booming!
F8ck!
0 -
Politics is changing.Pro_Rata said:Was nice to have William Hague getting air time this morning for Remain. The more we see of affable types who are (relatively) trusted across the board in the final two weeks, taking some of the burden / limelight from Cameron, the better. Alan Johnson was mentioned down thread - a very similar principle.
Cause to regret - an LD figure would also be good, Paddy is all well and good, but as I thought about this post, I got a deep pang of regret that we do not have Charles Kennedy any more, especially a Charles Kennedy at his peak. He would have been great in all this.
It's now massively different from the late 1990s, and is rapidly moving on from the Cameron/Osborne era (moulded by Blair) as we speak.
Heseltine, Ashdown, Kinnock and Mandelson aren't going to do much more than preach to the converted.
I agree Kennedy is a loss for Remain. Blair doesn't dare say a word. Major is probably neutral. Gordon Brown might be a mild positive. Ruth Davidson almost certainly is.
But the big beasts of the post-Thatcher era are no more.
If Remain want to win, they need to do it with new faces that look to the future.
Same for Leave.0 -
'1 article published 18 months ago (on jargon in Tech Hire job adverts)' hardly counts as 'blogs for HuffPo....'Richard_Tyndall said:Not sure what the
Blogs for the Huff Post.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. D, a woman who questioned Farage regarding migration, racism and so forth [didn't watch it, hence lack of detail] is Imriel Morgan, apparently a Huffington Post journalist/diversity activist.
Some on Twitter (obviously open to being wrong) suggest she isn't British, which does raise a question of whether she has a vote.
Edited extra bit: Morgan herself has said she isn't a journalist, but there is a furore about it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/imriel-morgan/
Not sure what the cut off is these days between journalist and blogger. Does SeanT count himself as a journalist?
But its telling the ferocity of the Faragists......0 -
Yeah, and I agree they deserve no sympathy. But I think denying them a vote as a punishment for the government's failure is a bit much.welshowl said:
I agree it shouldn't break, but I would have the mindset that I will build myself some "insurance" that it will.RobD said:
I think it is reasonable to assume the website won't break. It didn't before the 2015 GE for instance.welshowl said:@ RobD
Yes, but if I reasonably thought there was going to be an almighty rush to the booth I might just think it wise to saunter down a bit earlier just to be safe. Maybe I am still of a generation that is mildly amazed when the IT actually works and so anticipate that thousands accessing a Govt website in a rush might just cause a few problems as we all know how utterly marvellous Govt IT projects have been over the years.
In fairness I'm probably slightly paranoid about these things but sometimes that's not a bad position.
Probably says more about me than anything about the IT!0 -
More viable than it would otherwise be, I mean. I can understand Scots wanting independence from their domineering southern neighbour but being worried about going it alone in the world. Membership of a more distant EU (not directly controlling, but providing support with international issues) might be enough to reassure. A move towards a Europe of Regions, if you will.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not really. They would lose more by joining the EU than they gain by leaving the UK.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Not if you take the view that membership of the EU makes small states more viable.Richard_Tyndall said:
It always was the strangest logic. Exactly the same as being Pro-Indy but anti-Brexit. The same arguments should apply to both.Theuniondivvie said:Is it my imagination that those rehashing their very well worn arguments against Scottish sovereignty & self determination are mainly Leavers?
Interesting.
Edit Not that I'm either anti or pro-indy. That's entirely a decision for the Scots to make.0 -
Yes, that's right, they're just treeated as a more exotic kind of postal vote. The numbers registered are I think normally derisory - in Broxtowe in 2015 IIRC it was something like 50 people.Sandpit said:
You're registered to vote in the same area (Parliamentary constituency) you lived in before you left the country. I've never seen a split out of overseas votes, so my guess is that they are counted with all the other postal votes as they arrive at the council office over the next couple of weeks.tlg86 said:Does anyone know what happens with votes from overeseas? Will they be counted separately or do they get added to the count where the person was last registered to vote? It would be interesting to see the split for these votes.
I think most overseas votes will be distinguishable by the DHL and Aramex bags they arrive in, most expats don't trust international postal systems to be anywhere close to timely.
0 -
Looking forward to itCharles said:
Fixed it for yarcs1000 said:
I wouldn't allow SeanT near anyone I lovedtlg86 said:
I wouldn't allow anyone with the profile of SeanT near these audiences. Most people watching wouldn't know who he is, but he has an online presence and writes regularly for publications.Richard_Tyndall said:Not sure what the
Blogs for the Huff Post.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. D, a woman who questioned Farage regarding migration, racism and so forth [didn't watch it, hence lack of detail] is Imriel Morgan, apparently a Huffington Post journalist/diversity activist.
Some on Twitter (obviously open to being wrong) suggest she isn't British, which does raise a question of whether she has a vote.
Edited extra bit: Morgan herself has said she isn't a journalist, but there is a furore about it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/imriel-morgan/
Not sure what the cut off is these days between journalist and blogger. Does SeanT count himself as a journalist?
See you both tonight0 -
If she is from the Commonwealth then she has as much right to vote as the next person.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. D, a woman who questioned Farage regarding migration, racism and so forth [didn't watch it, hence lack of detail] is Imriel Morgan, apparently a Huffington Post journalist/diversity activist.
Some on Twitter (obviously open to being wrong) suggest she isn't British, which does raise a question of whether she has a vote.
Edited extra bit: Morgan herself has said she isn't a journalist, but there is a furore about it.
Plenty of kipper activists in various TV audiences. It is par for the course.0 -
Bilderberg?rcs1000 said:
Looking forward to itCharles said:
Fixed it for yarcs1000 said:
I wouldn't allow SeanT near anyone I lovedtlg86 said:
I wouldn't allow anyone with the profile of SeanT near these audiences. Most people watching wouldn't know who he is, but he has an online presence and writes regularly for publications.Richard_Tyndall said:Not sure what the
Blogs for the Huff Post.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. D, a woman who questioned Farage regarding migration, racism and so forth [didn't watch it, hence lack of detail] is Imriel Morgan, apparently a Huffington Post journalist/diversity activist.
Some on Twitter (obviously open to being wrong) suggest she isn't British, which does raise a question of whether she has a vote.
Edited extra bit: Morgan herself has said she isn't a journalist, but there is a furore about it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/imriel-morgan/
Not sure what the cut off is these days between journalist and blogger. Does SeanT count himself as a journalist?
See you both tonight 0 -
The price of sterling is clearly pretty much correct, in or out.
Looks like when it dips, manufacturing does well.
I wonder if there's a bit of a stinky short out there in the market.
It would be too hilariously wonderful if, as the polls moved to Brexit, the pound squeezed higher, f8cking all the experts and the traders too.
0 -
Many thanks. So Leave are looking for a healthy win and a decent turnout in Sunderland.Pong said:
I agree. With that age/demographic profile, leave will be hoping for at least 55% on a decent turnout if they're looking to win UK wide.Casino_Royale said:
I would expect Sunderland to go Leave by at least 5%.weejonnie said:
Is that when they confirm who their new striker is?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Can. Anyone tell me what results in the Sunderland declaration at about 11pm will signify for the overall result?
The short answer is: we don't know. Sunderland is massively Labour, of course, so in theory should vote Remain. Let's see
UKIP : 20%
Labour: 50%
Tories : 23%
Lib Dems/ Green 7%
Gives
19% Leave : 1% Remain
17% Leave : 33% Remain
13% Leave : 10% Remain
1% Leave : 6% Remain
Total : Leave 50%: Remain 50%
Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.
If it doesn't then Remain are probably on course for a clear victory.
Sunderland counting area;
AB 12.9%
C1 29.7%
C2 22.3%
DE 35.2%
18-29 20%
30-64 59%
65+ 21%
Median Age 41
Back in 2011, Sunderland was 5.5 percentage points more anti-AV compared to the national result, with a 4.6% lower turnout.
Looka like the best bet for those of us who work will be to hang on for Sunderland then go to bed until about 5am0 -
I registered "late" for the Labour leadership election, when the deadline was extended. But that was for the personal amusement of casting a vote for 1) Kendall (Who was a dead cert to be last) and then 2) Corbyn, in case he needed a few extra votes and the hilarity that certainly would ensue.
But I wouldn't dream of leaving it so late for an actual serious vote.0 -
Dr. Foxinsox, that's a fair point (on those: I don't think Irish or Commonwealth citizens should have the vote as of right, and I think activists from parties should be, as far as possible, prevented from attending such events as they're campaigners).0
-
Not that anyone is interested in the facts in the rush to defend St Nige....but here's her LinkedIn profile:Morris_Dancer said:Edited extra bit: Morgan herself has said she isn't a journalist, but there is a furore about it.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/imriel-morgan-2113a427
Not a journalist.
Has had an article on HuffPo.....once.....about jargon in Tech Job sector recruitment ads....0 -
Wondering how many here are planning on not working Friday if they can? I intend to take the day off.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Many thanks. So Leave are looking for a healthy win and a decent turnout in Sunderland.Pong said:
I agree. With that age/demographic profile, leave will be hoping for at least 55% on a decent turnout if they're looking to win UK wide.Casino_Royale said:
I would expect Sunderland to go Leave by at least 5%.weejonnie said:
Is that when they confirm who their new striker is?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Can. Anyone tell me what results in the Sunderland declaration at about 11pm will signify for the overall result?
The short answer is: we don't know. Sunderland is massively Labour, of course, so in theory should vote Remain. Let's see
UKIP : 20%
Labour: 50%
Tories : 23%
Lib Dems/ Green 7%
Gives
19% Leave : 1% Remain
17% Leave : 33% Remain
13% Leave : 10% Remain
1% Leave : 6% Remain
Total : Leave 50%: Remain 50%
Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.
If it doesn't then Remain are probably on course for a clear victory.
Sunderland counting area;
AB 12.9%
C1 29.7%
C2 22.3%
DE 35.2%
18-29 20%
30-64 59%
65+ 21%
Median Age 41
Back in 2011, Sunderland was 5.5 percentage points more anti-AV compared to the national result, with a 4.6% lower turnout.
Looka like the best bet for those of us who work will be to hang on for Sunderland then go to bed until about 5am0 -
I can't answer thatRobD said:
Bilderberg?rcs1000 said:
Looking forward to itCharles said:
Fixed it for yarcs1000 said:
I wouldn't allow SeanT near anyone I lovedtlg86 said:
I wouldn't allow anyone with the profile of SeanT near these audiences. Most people watching wouldn't know who he is, but he has an online presence and writes regularly for publications.Richard_Tyndall said:Not sure what the
Blogs for the Huff Post.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. D, a woman who questioned Farage regarding migration, racism and so forth [didn't watch it, hence lack of detail] is Imriel Morgan, apparently a Huffington Post journalist/diversity activist.
Some on Twitter (obviously open to being wrong) suggest she isn't British, which does raise a question of whether she has a vote.
Edited extra bit: Morgan herself has said she isn't a journalist, but there is a furore about it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/imriel-morgan/
Not sure what the cut off is these days between journalist and blogger. Does SeanT count himself as a journalist?
See you both tonight0 -
MPs want an extension to registration deadline:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-364761760 -
The woman asking the question is black.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. D, a woman who questioned Farage regarding migration, racism and so forth [didn't watch it, hence lack of detail] is Imriel Morgan, apparently a Huffington Post journalist/diversity activist.
Some on Twitter (obviously open to being wrong) suggest she isn't British, which does raise a question of whether she has a vote.
Edited extra bit: Morgan herself has said she isn't a journalist, but there is a furore about it.
The basis of her argument was that LEAVE's points system was an attempt to stop black people coming to the UK from the EU.
She did not understand Farage's reply that the current EU system discriminates against people from Africa and Asia for example.
Farage avoided pointing out that Poles, Romanians and Bulgarians are white.0 -
Major has the right sort of profile overall. But it is too personal for him - every utterance he makes smacks of his ongoing bitterness over 'the bastards'.Casino_Royale said:
Politics is changing.Pro_Rata said:Was nice to have William Hague getting air time this morning for Remain. The more we see of affable types who are (relatively) trusted across the board in the final two weeks, taking some of the burden / limelight from Cameron, the better. Alan Johnson was mentioned down thread - a very similar principle.
Cause to regret - an LD figure would also be good, Paddy is all well and good, but as I thought about this post, I got a deep pang of regret that we do not have Charles Kennedy any more, especially a Charles Kennedy at his peak. He would have been great in all this.
It's now massively different from the late 1990s, and is rapidly moving on from the Cameron/Osborne era (moulded by Blair) as we speak.
Heseltine, Ashdown, Kinnock and Mandelson aren't going to do much more than preach to the converted.
I agree Kennedy is a loss for Remain. Blair doesn't dare say a word. Major is probably neutral. Gordon Brown might be a mild positive. Ruth Davidson almost certainly is.
But the big beasts of the post-Thatcher era are no more.
If Remain want to win, they need to do it with new faces that look to the future.
Same for Leave.0 -
GICIPM ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Time for me to do an Osborne as next Tory leader piece.taffys said:In Osborne's office....
manufacturing is booming!
F8ck!0 -
I started! My local council (from when I was in the UK) told me it was sending me a letter, which made it pointless because it will take two months to get here.Casino_Royale said:
Isn't it rather mixed?Sandpit said:
Thanks. Are any of PB's non-EU expats voting Remain, or do we all have an international viewpoint that is worldwide rather than Europe-centered?Casino_Royale said:
Outstanding. Good for you, chap.Sandpit said:Morning!
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oB0SHTh08E
Anecdote (not data!): Three of out of four sandpit-based friends with postal votes arriving this week are also voting Leave
I'd expect felix/EiT and one or two others to be Remain.
Yourself, GeoffM and indigo for Leave (but indigo hasn't arranged a vote I don't think)0 -
Mr. Evershed, that does seem like an irrational question for her to ask.0
-
Thanks Nick for confirming - I guessed that a 5 times (or more?) Parliamentary candidate might know the answer to that one!NickPalmer said:
Yes, that's right, they're just treeated as a more exotic kind of postal vote. The numbers registered are I think normally derisory - in Broxtowe in 2015 IIRC it was something like 50 people.Sandpit said:
You're registered to vote in the same area (Parliamentary constituency) you lived in before you left the country. I've never seen a split out of overseas votes, so my guess is that they are counted with all the other postal votes as they arrive at the council office over the next couple of weeks.tlg86 said:Does anyone know what happens with votes from overeseas? Will they be counted separately or do they get added to the count where the person was last registered to vote? It would be interesting to see the split for these votes.
I think most overseas votes will be distinguishable by the DHL and Aramex bags they arrive in, most expats don't trust international postal systems to be anywhere close to timely.0 -
I'm fairly sure they know exactly who the people are that they allow to ask questions.tlg86 said:
Complete joke. She was the one that said Ukip got 3%. ITV should do a much better job of vetting these people - it's not exactly difficult to Google these people.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. D, a woman who questioned Farage regarding migration, racism and so forth [didn't watch it, hence lack of detail] is Imriel Morgan, apparently a Huffington Post journalist/diversity activist.
Some on Twitter (obviously open to being wrong) suggest she isn't British, which does raise a question of whether she has a vote.
Edited extra bit: Morgan herself has said she isn't a journalist, but there is a furore about it.
All part of the show.0 -
I linked first thing to a tweet pointing out that 75% of those who registered between Dec 2014 wnd the closing date for the 2015 election turned out to be already on the registerPulpstar said:I registered "late" for the Labour leadership election, when the deadline was extended. But that was for the personal amusement of casting a vote for 1) Kendall (Who was a dead cert to be last) and then 2) Corbyn, in case he needed a few extra votes and the hilarity that certainly would ensue.
But I wouldn't dream of leaving it so late for an actual serious vote.0 -
My missus came back last night in a panic saying we had to register by midnight or we couldnt vote.Morris_Dancer said:MPs want an extension to registration deadline:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36476176
I then showed her our polling cards with voter numbers from the council - I wonder how many "registering" last night were already on the books ?0 -
Haven't seen the figures yet so which month ? We had a really strong April and a sick May. Which seems to be the pattern with a lot of the people I talk to ( suppliers customers ). The economy is very stop \ start in manufacturing. June seems to be shaping up ok after a slow start. But manufacturers like predictable constant demand.rcs1000 said:Good UK industrial production numbers just out. (Alanbrooke, does that include you?)
In May two of my major customers who had been badgering me to keep capacity free for large projects never released the orders. One in shop fitting had a major retailer put back a big refit and the other which does vehicle conversions primarily for HMG hasn't seen the work they have been promised yet.0 -
I'm helping to facilitate a fooking strategy workshop at 2pm.Philip_Thompson said:
Wondering how many here are planning on not working Friday if they can? I intend to take the day off.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Many thanks. So Leave are looking for a healthy win and a decent turnout in Sunderland.Pong said:
I agree. With that age/demographic profile, leave will be hoping for at least 55% on a decent turnout if they're looking to win UK wide.Casino_Royale said:
I would expect Sunderland to go Leave by at least 5%.weejonnie said:
Is that when they confirm who their new striker is?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Can. Anyone tell me what results in the Sunderland declaration at about 11pm will signify for the overall result?
The short answer is: we don't know. Sunderland is massively Labour, of course, so in theory should vote Remain. Let's see
UKIP : 20%
Labour: 50%
Tories : 23%
Lib Dems/ Green 7%
Gives
19% Leave : 1% Remain
17% Leave : 33% Remain
13% Leave : 10% Remain
1% Leave : 6% Remain
Total : Leave 50%: Remain 50%
Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.
If it doesn't then Remain are probably on course for a clear victory.
Sunderland counting area;
AB 12.9%
C1 29.7%
C2 22.3%
DE 35.2%
18-29 20%
30-64 59%
65+ 21%
Median Age 41
Back in 2011, Sunderland was 5.5 percentage points more anti-AV compared to the national result, with a 4.6% lower turnout.
Looka like the best bet for those of us who work will be to hang on for Sunderland then go to bed until about 5am
Which I will probably need the redbull for.
I could be in an irritatingly ecstatic mood, or a massively grumpy mood.
I am not exactly a ray of sunshine to be around when I'm in a bad mood.0 -
London assembly had foreign nationals accounting for 23% of the London population in 2014 - just shy of 2m people. At least a million are ineligible on those numbers.RobD said:
I wonder what percentage of that 40 are from Commonwealth countries, as they do have the vote.chestnut said:
If Leave achieve 54-46 I think they will be safe.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Chestnut, including London would that be circa 52-48? [That's a figure someone else here suggested England would need for Leave to be odds on].
Disappointing to read there was apparently a plant in the ITV audience. Didn't recall similar allegations about Sky (and that was a rather feisty lot).
I also think the London electorate will shrink sharply if the electoral authorities have performed their duties correctly.
Nearly 40% of the population was born outside the UK, so its fairly reasonable to conclude that many, though obviously not that high, will fall foul of the citizenship requirement. That will down weight the value of London more than any other region compared to the general election.
It's bound to have risen given the migration figures.
0 -
Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.Pro_Rata said:
Major has the right sort of profile overall. But it is too personal for him - every utterance he makes smacks of his ongoing bitterness over 'the bastards'.Casino_Royale said:
Politics is changing.Pro_Rata said:Was nice to have William Hague getting air time this morning for Remain. The more we see of affable types who are (relatively) trusted across the board in the final two weeks, taking some of the burden / limelight from Cameron, the better. Alan Johnson was mentioned down thread - a very similar principle.
Cause to regret - an LD figure would also be good, Paddy is all well and good, but as I thought about this post, I got a deep pang of regret that we do not have Charles Kennedy any more, especially a Charles Kennedy at his peak. He would have been great in all this.
It's now massively different from the late 1990s, and is rapidly moving on from the Cameron/Osborne era (moulded by Blair) as we speak.
Heseltine, Ashdown, Kinnock and Mandelson aren't going to do much more than preach to the converted.
I agree Kennedy is a loss for Remain. Blair doesn't dare say a word. Major is probably neutral. Gordon Brown might be a mild positive. Ruth Davidson almost certainly is.
But the big beasts of the post-Thatcher era are no more.
If Remain want to win, they need to do it with new faces that look to the future.
Same for Leave.0 -
Indigo. You can download a proxy voting form from your local council (as in the one you had before you moved abroad). In emergencies (and the length of time it takes for mail to reach the UK from the Philippines might count), you have another 10 days to get the form in. Or you - if you don't mind wasting £20 - could Fedex it, and get it in on time.Indigo said:
I started! My local council (from when I was in the UK) told me it was sending me a letter, which made it pointless because it will take two months to get here.Casino_Royale said:
Isn't it rather mixed?Sandpit said:
Thanks. Are any of PB's non-EU expats voting Remain, or do we all have an international viewpoint that is worldwide rather than Europe-centered?Casino_Royale said:
Outstanding. Good for you, chap.Sandpit said:Morning!
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oB0SHTh08E
Anecdote (not data!): Three of out of four sandpit-based friends with postal votes arriving this week are also voting Leave
I'd expect felix/EiT and one or two others to be Remain.
Yourself, GeoffM and indigo for Leave (but indigo hasn't arranged a vote I don't think)
You do need to find someone in your local council area (I'm Camden) to act as your proxy.0 -
Mr. Flashman (deceased), a good point, and one others have made (registrations and those actually going through will be very different numbers).
My sympathy for those involved is minimal.0 -
Osborne - Deficit denier.TheScreamingEagles said:
Time for me to do an Osborne as next Tory leader piece.taffys said:In Osborne's office....
manufacturing is booming!
F8ck!
0 -
Nah, anyone who works in corporate IT can set up an almost infinitely scalable website very easily these days. It's a combination of inertia and the fact that nobody ever gets fired that stops them doing it properly.welshowl said:@ RobD
Yes, but if I reasonably thought there was going to be an almighty rush to the booth I might just think it wise to saunter down a bit earlier just to be safe. Maybe I am still of a generation that is mildly amazed when the IT actually works and so anticipate that thousands accessing a Govt website in a rush might just cause a few problems as we all know how utterly marvellous Govt IT projects have been over the years.
In fairness I'm probably slightly paranoid about these things but sometimes that's not a bad position.
If I were the IT Director of a company doing a product launch that had a registration website crash in the hours before a deadline, I'd be pleading with the bosses for my job this morning.0 -
Now that Muhammed Ali has shuffled off this mortal coil, Osborne is now undoubtedly the greatestRobD said:
Master Strategist, King of the Northern Powerhouse...TheScreamingEagles said:
Time for me to do an Osborne as next Tory leader piece.taffys said:In Osborne's office....
manufacturing is booming!
F8ck!0 -
Back in the early days of pb, the site architecture was complex, and the site would frequently go down during busy times.Sandpit said:
Nah, anyone who works in corporate IT can set up an almost infinitely scalable website very easily these days. It's a combination of inertia and the fact that nobody ever gets fired that stops them doing it properly.welshowl said:@ RobD
Yes, but if I reasonably thought there was going to be an almighty rush to the booth I might just think it wise to saunter down a bit earlier just to be safe. Maybe I am still of a generation that is mildly amazed when the IT actually works and so anticipate that thousands accessing a Govt website in a rush might just cause a few problems as we all know how utterly marvellous Govt IT projects have been over the years.
In fairness I'm probably slightly paranoid about these things but sometimes that's not a bad position.
If I were the IT Director of a company doing a product launch that had a registration website crash in the hours before a deadline, I'd be pleading with the bosses for my job this morning.
Nowadays, other than executing apt-get update && apt-get upgrade every couple of weeks, I don't have to do anything. Technology has come on a long way in the last ten years.0 -
Now to find a nice pic of him and channel my inner Avery!TheScreamingEagles said:
Now that Muhammed Ali has shuffled off this mortal coil, Osborne is now undoubtedly the greatestRobD said:
Master Strategist, King of the Northern Powerhouse...TheScreamingEagles said:
Time for me to do an Osborne as next Tory leader piece.taffys said:In Osborne's office....
manufacturing is booming!
F8ck!0 -
Didn't you spill the beans a couple of weeks ago that PB is run off a laptop?rcs1000 said:
Back in the early days of pb, the site architecture was complex, and the site would frequently go down during busy times.Sandpit said:
Nah, anyone who works in corporate IT can set up an almost infinitely scalable website very easily these days. It's a combination of inertia and the fact that nobody ever gets fired that stops them doing it properly.welshowl said:@ RobD
Yes, but if I reasonably thought there was going to be an almighty rush to the booth I might just think it wise to saunter down a bit earlier just to be safe. Maybe I am still of a generation that is mildly amazed when the IT actually works and so anticipate that thousands accessing a Govt website in a rush might just cause a few problems as we all know how utterly marvellous Govt IT projects have been over the years.
In fairness I'm probably slightly paranoid about these things but sometimes that's not a bad position.
If I were the IT Director of a company doing a product launch that had a registration website crash in the hours before a deadline, I'd be pleading with the bosses for my job this morning.
Nowadays, other than executing apt-get update && apt-get upgrade every couple of weeks, I don't have to do anything. Technology has come on a long way in the last ten years.
0 -
Oh
@GuidoFawkes: Times, Mail, C4News, BBC, Guardian, FT all now catching up on #LabourElectionFraud @labourpress office spinning https://t.co/zdHZh5RJDg0 -
At least Mr Coburn can be relied upon to add to the gaiety of the nation......
Eurosceptics have long argued that Auntie is in league with Brussels, while a certain breed of Corbynista insist there’s dark collusion between political editor Laura Kuenssberg and No 10.
But it takes quite a special character to accuse the Beeb of exhibiting its bias via a rival broadcaster.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/uk-independence-party/dot-commons-diary/75882/great-bbc-eu-conspiracy-–0 -
I'm Westminster & could proxy for you if you needrcs1000 said:
Indigo. You can download a proxy voting form from your local council (as in the one you had before you moved abroad). In emergencies (and the length of time it takes for mail to reach the UK from the Philippines might count), you have another 10 days to get the form in. Or you - if you don't mind wasting £20 - could Fedex it, and get it in on time.Indigo said:
I started! My local council (from when I was in the UK) told me it was sending me a letter, which made it pointless because it will take two months to get here.Casino_Royale said:
Isn't it rather mixed?Sandpit said:
Thanks. Are any of PB's non-EU expats voting Remain, or do we all have an international viewpoint that is worldwide rather than Europe-centered?Casino_Royale said:
Outstanding. Good for you, chap.Sandpit said:Morning!
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oB0SHTh08E
Anecdote (not data!): Three of out of four sandpit-based friends with postal votes arriving this week are also voting Leave
I'd expect felix/EiT and one or two others to be Remain.
Yourself, GeoffM and indigo for Leave (but indigo hasn't arranged a vote I don't think)
You do need to find someone in your local council area (I'm Camden) to act as your proxy.0 -
Indigo: please do this. We need every vote!rcs1000 said:
Indigo. You can download a proxy voting form from your local council (as in the one you had before you moved abroad). In emergencies (and the length of time it takes for mail to reach the UK from the Philippines might count), you have another 10 days to get the form in. Or you - if you don't mind wasting £20 - could Fedex it, and get it in on time.Indigo said:
I started! My local council (from when I was in the UK) told me it was sending me a letter, which made it pointless because it will take two months to get here.Casino_Royale said:
Isn't it rather mixed?Sandpit said:
Thanks. Are any of PB's non-EU expats voting Remain, or do we all have an international viewpoint that is worldwide rather than Europe-centered?Casino_Royale said:
Outstanding. Good for you, chap.Sandpit said:Morning!
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oB0SHTh08E
Anecdote (not data!): Three of out of four sandpit-based friends with postal votes arriving this week are also voting Leave
I'd expect felix/EiT and one or two others to be Remain.
Yourself, GeoffM and indigo for Leave (but indigo hasn't arranged a vote I don't think)
You do need to find someone in your local council area (I'm Camden) to act as your proxy.0 -
''Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.''
I was looking at Major's result in 1997 the other day. 163 conservative seats FFS. 163.
It took to 2015 to build another 170. Two decades. If Labour had had a decent leader in 2010 and 2015, even that would have been in doubt.
I period of silence from Sir John, methinks.0 -
Chris Hanretty's spreadsheet has a 6.2% lead for Leave in Sunderland, as the par result based on deadlock overall.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Many thanks. So Leave are looking for a healthy win and a decent turnout in Sunderland.Pong said:
I agree. With that age/demographic profile, leave will be hoping for at least 55% on a decent turnout if they're looking to win UK wide.Casino_Royale said:
I would expect Sunderland to go Leave by at least 5%.weejonnie said:
Is that when they confirm who their new striker is?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Can. Anyone tell me what results in the Sunderland declaration at about 11pm will signify for the overall result?
The short answer is: we don't know. Sunderland is massively Labour, of course, so in theory should vote Remain. Let's see
UKIP : 20%
Labour: 50%
Tories : 23%
Lib Dems/ Green 7%
Gives
19% Leave : 1% Remain
17% Leave : 33% Remain
13% Leave : 10% Remain
1% Leave : 6% Remain
Total : Leave 50%: Remain 50%
Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.
If it doesn't then Remain are probably on course for a clear victory.
Sunderland counting area;
AB 12.9%
C1 29.7%
C2 22.3%
DE 35.2%
18-29 20%
30-64 59%
65+ 21%
Median Age 41
Back in 2011, Sunderland was 5.5 percentage points more anti-AV compared to the national result, with a 4.6% lower turnout.
Looka like the best bet for those of us who work will be to hang on for Sunderland then go to bed until about 5am
I'm not sure how he's treating DK's though.
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/the-eu-referendum-what-to-expect-on-the-night-521792dd3eef#.6weq40vlt0 -
Tee, hee. Bernie swears he will continue to fight for the nomination.
Bernie Sanders' decision to stay in the race ensures the Democratic Party remains divided and sets the stage for potential conflict in Philadelphia in July.
He can't win but he vows to keep campaigning until the convention.
0 -
It's alright for someCharles said:
I'm Westminster & could proxy for you if you needrcs1000 said:
Indigo. You can download a proxy voting form from your local council (as in the one you had before you moved abroad). In emergencies (and the length of time it takes for mail to reach the UK from the Philippines might count), you have another 10 days to get the form in. Or you - if you don't mind wasting £20 - could Fedex it, and get it in on time.Indigo said:
I started! My local council (from when I was in the UK) told me it was sending me a letter, which made it pointless because it will take two months to get here.Casino_Royale said:
Isn't it rather mixed?Sandpit said:
Thanks. Are any of PB's non-EU expats voting Remain, or do we all have an international viewpoint that is worldwide rather than Europe-centered?Casino_Royale said:
Outstanding. Good for you, chap.Sandpit said:Morning!
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oB0SHTh08E
Anecdote (not data!): Three of out of four sandpit-based friends with postal votes arriving this week are also voting Leave
I'd expect felix/EiT and one or two others to be Remain.
Yourself, GeoffM and indigo for Leave (but indigo hasn't arranged a vote I don't think)
You do need to find someone in your local council area (I'm Camden) to act as your proxy. 0 -
If the referendum uncertainty means sterling is losing its safe haven value then that might actually be a good thing. Foreigners buying up London property is not a route to long term prosperity. Of course once the referendum is over things might revert to normal. If things continue to go badly in the petro economies though there'll surely be pressure to pull money out of the UK which would surely precipitate an asset price collapse.taffys said:In Osborne's office....
manufacturing is booming!
F8ck!0 -
This must be Sanders cunning plan to discredit himself and ensure his supporters switch to Clinton.MikeK said:Tee, hee.
Bernie swears he will continue to fight for the nomination.
Bernie Sanders' decision to stay in the race ensures the Democratic Party remains divided and sets the stage for potential conflict in Philadelphia in July.
He can't win but he vows to keep campaigning until the convention.0 -
His Remain + Leave figures all total ~90% unless I am misreading, so I think nothing has been done with DKs.Tissue_Price said:
Chris Hanretty's spreadsheet has a 6.2% lead for Leave in Sunderland, as the par result based on deadlock overall.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Many thanks. So Leave are looking for a healthy win and a decent turnout in Sunderland.Pong said:
I agree. With that age/demographic profile, leave will be hoping for at least 55% on a decent turnout if they're looking to win UK wide.Casino_Royale said:
I would expect Sunderland to go Leave by at least 5%.weejonnie said:
Is that when they confirm who their new striker is?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Can. Anyone tell me what results in the Sunderland declaration at about 11pm will signify for the overall result?
The short answer is: we don't know. Sunderland is massively Labour, of course, so in theory should vote Remain. Let's see
UKIP : 20%
Labour: 50%
Tories : 23%
Lib Dems/ Green 7%
Gives
19% Leave : 1% Remain
17% Leave : 33% Remain
13% Leave : 10% Remain
1% Leave : 6% Remain
Total : Leave 50%: Remain 50%
Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.
If it doesn't then Remain are probably on course for a clear victory.
Sunderland counting area;
AB 12.9%
C1 29.7%
C2 22.3%
DE 35.2%
18-29 20%
30-64 59%
65+ 21%
Median Age 41
Back in 2011, Sunderland was 5.5 percentage points more anti-AV compared to the national result, with a 4.6% lower turnout.
Looka like the best bet for those of us who work will be to hang on for Sunderland then go to bed until about 5am
I'm not sure how he's treating DK's though.
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/the-eu-referendum-what-to-expect-on-the-night-521792dd3eef#.6weq40vlt0 -
Russian EmbassyRobD said:
Bilderberg?rcs1000 said:
Looking forward to itCharles said:
Fixed it for yarcs1000 said:
I wouldn't allow SeanT near anyone I lovedtlg86 said:
I wouldn't allow anyone with the profile of SeanT near these audiences. Most people watching wouldn't know who he is, but he has an online presence and writes regularly for publications.Richard_Tyndall said:Not sure what the
Blogs for the Huff Post.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. D, a woman who questioned Farage regarding migration, racism and so forth [didn't watch it, hence lack of detail] is Imriel Morgan, apparently a Huffington Post journalist/diversity activist.
Some on Twitter (obviously open to being wrong) suggest she isn't British, which does raise a question of whether she has a vote.
Edited extra bit: Morgan herself has said she isn't a journalist, but there is a furore about it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/imriel-morgan/
Not sure what the cut off is these days between journalist and blogger. Does SeanT count himself as a journalist?
See you both tonight0 -
On topic, I don't really believe the Scottish people love the EU that much to make rejoining it via independence a national priority. But it will be the mother of all grievances for the SNP to exploit, deepening further the cleavages of the Scottish referendum.
The SNP are increasingly going to be judged on bread-and-butter issues: the leadership are already aware that another 5 years on constitutional matters isn't a good idea. However the membership are not all as realistic.0 -
20 yards...halved my council tax...rcs1000 said:
It's alright for someCharles said:
I'm Westminster & could proxy for you if you needrcs1000 said:
Indigo. You can download a proxy voting form from your local council (as in the one you had before you moved abroad). In emergencies (and the length of time it takes for mail to reach the UK from the Philippines might count), you have another 10 days to get the form in. Or you - if you don't mind wasting £20 - could Fedex it, and get it in on time.Indigo said:
I started! My local council (from when I was in the UK) told me it was sending me a letter, which made it pointless because it will take two months to get here.Casino_Royale said:
Isn't it rather mixed?Sandpit said:
Thanks. Are any of PB's non-EU expats voting Remain, or do we all have an international viewpoint that is worldwide rather than Europe-centered?Casino_Royale said:
Outstanding. Good for you, chap.Sandpit said:Morning!
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oB0SHTh08E
Anecdote (not data!): Three of out of four sandpit-based friends with postal votes arriving this week are also voting Leave
I'd expect felix/EiT and one or two others to be Remain.
Yourself, GeoffM and indigo for Leave (but indigo hasn't arranged a vote I don't think)
You do need to find someone in your local council area (I'm Camden) to act as your proxy. 0 -
Tissue_Price said:
Chris Hanretty's spreadsheet has a 6.2% lead for Leave in Sunderland, as the par result based on deadlock overall.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Many thanks. So Leave are looking for a healthy win and a decent turnout in Sunderland.Pong said:
I agree. With that age/demographic profile, leave will be hoping for at least 55% on a decent turnout if they're looking to win UK wide.Casino_Royale said:
I would expect Sunderland to go Leave by at least 5%.weejonnie said:
Is that when they confirm who their new striker is?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Can. Anyone tell me what results in the Sunderland declaration at about 11pm will signify for the overall result?
The short answer is: we don't know. Sunderland is massively Labour, of course, so in theory should vote Remain. Let's see
UKIP : 20%
Labour: 50%
Tories : 23%
Lib Dems/ Green 7%
Gives
19% Leave : 1% Remain
17% Leave : 33% Remain
13% Leave : 10% Remain
1% Leave : 6% Remain
Total : Leave 50%: Remain 50%
Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.
If it doesn't then Remain are probably on course for a clear victory.
Sunderland counting area;
AB 12.9%
C1 29.7%
C2 22.3%
DE 35.2%
18-29 20%
30-64 59%
65+ 21%
Median Age 41
Back in 2011, Sunderland was 5.5 percentage points more anti-AV compared to the national result, with a 4.6% lower turnout.
Looka like the best bet for those of us who work will be to hang on for Sunderland then go to bed until about 5am
I'm not sure how he's treating DK's though.
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/the-eu-referendum-what-to-expect-on-the-night-521792dd3eef#.6weq40vlt
Will Sunderland demand independence if the UK as a whole votes REMAIN?
0 -
@SouthamObserver
'Turns out, though, that the establishment was right. That the experts did know what they were talking about.'
Sooner or later the establishment and so called experts are going to call something right,it's just that their track record is so piss poor on the really big issues.
ERM wrong, Euro wrong, 2008 recession wrong0 -
The Battlebus thing is the difference this time. Previously all parties used a Battlebus to take the leader to meet the 'people' (usually party members) and make a speech which the journalists on the bus would report. This is part of the 'air war' and national in nature.Sandpit said:
Nope, it's not a party political point. Guido has also fingered Nick Clegg, Cat Smith (Labour, possibly the worst offender for failing to declare her own campaign staff) and the SNP (who hired a branded helicopter to get around) as well as the Tories. All parties had battle buses and it seems that they all declared them incorrectly in the same way.logical_song said:
It's the Tories who are up to their neck in the election expenses story. They used a battlebus to bus in activist to help in specific constituencies. They have used legal means to try to avoid handing over information. They are quite naturally trying to say other parties did the same thing, but it doesn't appear to be working.Sandpit said:
The referendum campaign is seriously hiding what would have been a huge story about election expenses in 2015, with every major party in up to their neck in it.OchEye said:...and potentially Sturgeon herself in an election overspend investigation by using a helicopter and not declaring the correct cost.
We still might get one or two prosecutions, but it's obvious the Electoral Commission need to urgently clarify what's counted as local and national election spending - if they don't change the rules completely for the 2020 General Election.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36271515
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36231138
http://www.markpack.org.uk/140952/adrian-sanders-election-expenses/
This time the Tories used a Battlebus to take activists to target seats, put them up in hotels, and they would spend their time electioneering in that specific constituency. It's a much better idea really and a bit like treating the election in that constituency in the same way as a by-election. The problem for them is that it was local electioneering and should have legally been declared as such.0 -
Umm
"Migrants cannot be imprisoned just because they try to sneak across the Channel from France, the European Court of Justice has declared.
The ruling against French authorities raises the prospect that people could be free to attempt to gain access to Britain again.
It comes with Home Secretary Theresa May under intense pressure to tackle the problem of migrants entering the UK illegally via lorries and ports" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3629418/European-court-rules-France-T-imprison-migrants-trying-cross-Channel-raising-prospect-freed-try-again.html0 -
Charles said:
I'm Westminster & could proxy for you if you needrcs1000 said:
Indigo. You can download a proxy voting form from your local council (as in the one you had before you moved abroad). In emergencies (and the length of time it takes for mail to reach the UK from the Philippines might count), you have another 10 days to get the form in. Or you - if you don't mind wasting £20 - could Fedex it, and get it in on time.Indigo said:
I started! My local council (from when I was in the UK) told me it was sending me a letter, which made it pointless because it will take two months to get here.Casino_Royale said:
Isn't it rather mixed?Sandpit said:
Thanks. Are any of PB's non-EU expats voting Remain, or do we all have an international viewpoint that is worldwide rather than Europe-centered?Casino_Royale said:
Outstanding. Good for you, chap.Sandpit said:Morning!
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oB0SHTh08E
Anecdote (not data!): Three of out of four sandpit-based friends with postal votes arriving this week are also voting Leave
I'd expect felix/EiT and one or two others to be Remain.
Yourself, GeoffM and indigo for Leave (but indigo hasn't arranged a vote I don't think)
You do need to find someone in your local council area (I'm Camden) to act as your proxy.
Which way will you place the proxy vote though?
0 -
Miss Plato, that story should be getting a lot of coverage.0
-
You moved to the other side of Exhibition Road?Charles said:
20 yards...halved my council tax...rcs1000 said:
It's alright for someCharles said:
I'm Westminster & could proxy for you if you needrcs1000 said:
Indigo. You can download a proxy voting form from your local council (as in the one you had before you moved abroad). In emergencies (and the length of time it takes for mail to reach the UK from the Philippines might count), you have another 10 days to get the form in. Or you - if you don't mind wasting £20 - could Fedex it, and get it in on time.Indigo said:
I started! My local council (from when I was in the UK) told me it was sending me a letter, which made it pointless because it will take two months to get here.Casino_Royale said:
Isn't it rather mixed?Sandpit said:
Thanks. Are any of PB's non-EU expats voting Remain, or do we all have an international viewpoint that is worldwide rather than Europe-centered?Casino_Royale said:
Outstanding. Good for you, chap.Sandpit said:Morning!
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oB0SHTh08E
Anecdote (not data!): Three of out of four sandpit-based friends with postal votes arriving this week are also voting Leave
I'd expect felix/EiT and one or two others to be Remain.
Yourself, GeoffM and indigo for Leave (but indigo hasn't arranged a vote I don't think)
You do need to find someone in your local council area (I'm Camden) to act as your proxy.0 -
@Charles is in NW8TOPPING said:
You moved to the other side of Exhibition Road?Charles said:
20 yards...halved my council tax...rcs1000 said:
It's alright for someCharles said:
I'm Westminster & could proxy for you if you needrcs1000 said:
Indigo. You can download a proxy voting form from your local council (as in the one you had before you moved abroad). In emergencies (and the length of time it takes for mail to reach the UK from the Philippines might count), you have another 10 days to get the form in. Or you - if you don't mind wasting £20 - could Fedex it, and get it in on time.Indigo said:
I started! My local council (from when I was in the UK) told me it was sending me a letter, which made it pointless because it will take two months to get here.Casino_Royale said:
Isn't it rather mixed?Sandpit said:
Thanks. Are any of PB's non-EU expats voting Remain, or do we all have an international viewpoint that is worldwide rather than Europe-centered?Casino_Royale said:
Outstanding. Good for you, chap.Sandpit said:Morning!
Just catching up on the debate with Cameron and Farage. Two good positive performances.
Farage was on the receiving end of a lot of the Remain soundbites and argumentative questioners, whereas the questioners of the PM were a little more deferential. DC was very good though, he toned down the rhetoric of war and famine, showed why he won the election last year.
NF 7/10, DC 8/10
Still not changed my mind though, postal vote arrived today and is being sent back with a cross in the Leave box.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oB0SHTh08E
Anecdote (not data!): Three of out of four sandpit-based friends with postal votes arriving this week are also voting Leave
I'd expect felix/EiT and one or two others to be Remain.
Yourself, GeoffM and indigo for Leave (but indigo hasn't arranged a vote I don't think)
You do need to find someone in your local council area (I'm Camden) to act as your proxy.0 -
In 1992 John Major obtained the most number of votes ever for the Conservatives.taffys said:''Correct. Quite a lot of those I've listed above are rather angry that this vote is even taking place at all.''
I was looking at Major's result in 1997 the other day. 163 conservative seats FFS. 163.
It took to 2015 to build another 170. Two decades. If Labour had had a decent leader in 2010 and 2015, even that would have been in doubt.
I period of silence from Sir John, methinks.
0 -
Excellent piece of work. Although it does seem Remain are relying awfully hard on students in some areas.Tissue_Price said:
Chris Hanretty's spreadsheet has a 6.2% lead for Leave in Sunderland, as the par result based on deadlock overall.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Many thanks. So Leave are looking for a healthy win and a decent turnout in Sunderland.Pong said:
I agree. With that age/demographic profile, leave will be hoping for at least 55% on a decent turnout if they're looking to win UK wide.Casino_Royale said:
I would expect Sunderland to go Leave by at least 5%.weejonnie said:
Is that when they confirm who their new striker is?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Can. Anyone tell me what results in the Sunderland declaration at about 11pm will signify for the overall result?
The short answer is: we don't know. Sunderland is massively Labour, of course, so in theory should vote Remain. Let's see
UKIP : 20%
Labour: 50%
Tories : 23%
Lib Dems/ Green 7%
Gives
19% Leave : 1% Remain
17% Leave : 33% Remain
13% Leave : 10% Remain
1% Leave : 6% Remain
Total : Leave 50%: Remain 50%
Am willing to look at other breaks if any has other opinions - but if Sunderland votes Leave by a significant margin the Labour have lost the WWC.
If it doesn't then Remain are probably on course for a clear victory.
Sunderland counting area;
AB 12.9%
C1 29.7%
C2 22.3%
DE 35.2%
18-29 20%
30-64 59%
65+ 21%
Median Age 41
Back in 2011, Sunderland was 5.5 percentage points more anti-AV compared to the national result, with a 4.6% lower turnout.
Looka like the best bet for those of us who work will be to hang on for Sunderland then go to bed until about 5am
I'm not sure how he's treating DK's though.
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/the-eu-referendum-what-to-expect-on-the-night-521792dd3eef#.6weq40vlt0
