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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks on How Conservative Leavers could gift Labour the next election
The 2015 general election result was a surprise to almost everyone. After the event, those who had not predicted the Conservative overall majority hastened to explain why it had happened. One of the prime underlying causes alighted upon after the event was Labour’s catastrophic reputation on economic competence. Labour’s own pollsters found that Labour had a 39% deficit behind the Co…
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The question of economic competence is of course a fairly fundamental one. However, the stability of a Johnson government could evaporate even faster. The urgent decisions that would need to be made: whether to stay in the EEA, for example, are almost as toxic to the white coats Tory faction as the EU itself. The bitterness of the infighting is obvious. Meanwhile, the drip of scandal continues. The next Prime Minister is likely to have an extremely turbulent and possibly pretty short reign. The defenestration of Cameron could be the action that finally breaks the Tory party, not just is reputation for economic management.0
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Second like Remain.0
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It's hard to disagree with this, though Corbyn will buy the Tories some time. But post-Brexit economic woes, combined with a new Labour leader, could effectively kill the Tories stone dead. They will totally own whatever happens next after 23rd June. I am a Remainer because I foresee real trouble should we vote Leave. I hope that I am wrong.0
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I don't think I understand what is happening with the EU Referendum, especially the polling which seems to be saying that Remain has a chance of winning the vote. This is problematic because it doesn't seem to add up. Maybe my memory is wrong but as I recollect, there have been quite a number of votes in a lot of different countries over the last 30 years where a pro-EU side has faced off against an anti-EU side. And in all the examples I can think of the pro-EU side has been absolutely demolished, often by huge margins.
Am i not understanding something? Have there been referenda where the pro-EU side has won (other than in impoverished prospective members waiting for hand outs) ? I'm thinking of votes like the recent Swiss slap in the face to the EU, the Norway vote, the iceland vote, the various countries who all slapped the EU in the face over the EU Constitution. I can't come up with examples where a pro-EU side beat an anti-EU side anywhere.
What is it I am missing?0 -
Mr Meeks, are you suggesting a series of interest rate rises if we leave the EU?
What did for the Tories on Black Wednesday was not the devaluation of the pound or us leaving the ERM. It was the interest rate rises that hit (wait for it!) hard working families. The irony, of course, is that Mr Meeks is drawing a parallel with a disastrous set of decisions taken by Europhilic Tories. Once out of the ERM things turned out okay for Britain, though not so well for Mr Major.0 -
Its more of the same "Don't vote Leave because you will let the boogieman in"tlg86 said:Mr Meeks, are you suggesting a series of interest rate rises if we leave the EU?
What did for the Tories on Black Wednesday was not the devaluation of the pound or us leaving the ERM. It was the interest rate rises that hit (wait for it!) hard working families. The irony, of course, is that Mr Meeks is drawing a parallel with a disastrous set of decisions taken by Europhilic Tories. Once out of the ERM things turned out okay for Britain, though not so well for Mr Major.0 -
A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.0 -
Actually leaving is a bigger step than slapping the eu in the face. Other votes coukd express dissatisfaction without real risk. Personally I think the dislike is high enough people will take the risk now, but even as a leaver I've had moments of doubt about taking the leap.Lowlander said:I don't think I understand what is happening with the EU Referendum, especially the polling which seems to be saying that Remain has a chance of winning the vote. This is problematic because it doesn't seem to add up. Maybe my memory is wrong but as I recollect, there have been quite a number of votes in a lot of different countries over the last 30 years where a pro-EU side has faced off against an anti-EU side. And in all the examples I can think of the pro-EU side has been absolutely demolished, often by huge margins.
Am i not understanding something? Have there been referenda where the pro-EU side has won (other than in impoverished prospective members waiting for hand outs) ? I'm thinking of votes like the recent Swiss slap in the face to the EU, the Norway vote, the iceland vote, the various countries who all slapped the EU in the face over the EU Constitution. I can't come up with examples where a pro-EU side beat an anti-EU side anywhere.
What is it I am missing?
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On topic, it seems plausible. I think what pain there is will probably be worth it in the long run, but that is a risky move and not definitive, so I'm not surprised it's not the approach leave generally take, instead claiming there willbe no or little problem. I suspect it will bite the Tories particularly very hard indeed, but like the SNP they would regard it privately as worth it.0
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Well we still don't know whether the polls are right or wrong. What we do know is that the like for like regular polls are moving massively towards remain.
e.g. the Orb weekly phone polls that started three weeks ago.
Orb this week = Remain lead 1%
Orb last week = Remain lead 5%
Orb two weeks ago = Remain lead 13%
Orb three weeks ago = Remain lead 15%
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The irony could well be that had Dave taken a relatively moderate approach, and low keyed the whole thing a large chunk of the public might well have had second thoughts in the polling booth. That may still happen, but the whole campaign is now so visceral, and a lot of people are becoming so exercised by it, possibly not directly for EU related reasons but because they are so annoyed with the lies and the idiocy of one side of the other I think a lot more people are now committed than might otherwise have been the case.kle4 said:
Actually leaving is a bigger step than slapping the eu in the face. Other votes coukd express dissatisfaction without real risk. Personally I think the dislike is high enough people will take the risk now, but even as a leaver I've had moments of doubt about taking the leap.Lowlander said:I don't think I understand what is happening with the EU Referendum, especially the polling which seems to be saying that Remain has a chance of winning the vote. This is problematic because it doesn't seem to add up. Maybe my memory is wrong but as I recollect, there have been quite a number of votes in a lot of different countries over the last 30 years where a pro-EU side has faced off against an anti-EU side. And in all the examples I can think of the pro-EU side has been absolutely demolished, often by huge margins.
Am i not understanding something? Have there been referenda where the pro-EU side has won (other than in impoverished prospective members waiting for hand outs) ? I'm thinking of votes like the recent Swiss slap in the face to the EU, the Norway vote, the iceland vote, the various countries who all slapped the EU in the face over the EU Constitution. I can't come up with examples where a pro-EU side beat an anti-EU side anywhere.
What is it I am missing?0 -
You don't think the public are likely to blame the advocates of that decision for its consequences?Sean_F said:A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.0 -
Was it not the case that the Swiss were warned of dire economic consequences if they voted to end free movement? Since they did vote that way the consequences have been virtually nil. From the outside the warnings to the Swiss appear to have been meaningless and the EU has looked (and continues to look) very weak on their ability to do anything of consequence.kle4 said:
Actually leaving is a bigger step than slapping the eu in the face. Other votes coukd express dissatisfaction without real risk. Personally I think the dislike is high enough people will take the risk now, but even as a leaver I've had moments of doubt about taking the leap.Lowlander said:I don't think I understand what is happening with the EU Referendum, especially the polling which seems to be saying that Remain has a chance of winning the vote. This is problematic because it doesn't seem to add up. Maybe my memory is wrong but as I recollect, there have been quite a number of votes in a lot of different countries over the last 30 years where a pro-EU side has faced off against an anti-EU side. And in all the examples I can think of the pro-EU side has been absolutely demolished, often by huge margins.
Am i not understanding something? Have there been referenda where the pro-EU side has won (other than in impoverished prospective members waiting for hand outs) ? I'm thinking of votes like the recent Swiss slap in the face to the EU, the Norway vote, the iceland vote, the various countries who all slapped the EU in the face over the EU Constitution. I can't come up with examples where a pro-EU side beat an anti-EU side anywhere.
What is it I am missing?0 -
I don't know how they'd react. We'd be in uncharted waters. I think we may have reached a turning point in our politics in any case.AlastairMeeks said:
You don't think the public are likely to blame the advocates of that decision for its consequences?Sean_F said:A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.0 -
The argument would become about where it was a consequence of if it was going to happen anyway, since a recession is expected before 2020 irrespective of the referendum result.AlastairMeeks said:
You don't think the public are likely to blame the advocates of that decision for its consequences?Sean_F said:A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.0 -
I;m in my third recession in 8 years. People like you tell me I should just suck it up and die quietly. This government is already getting blame in certain sectors they cant avoid it whatever the vote outcome.AlastairMeeks said:
You don't think the public are likely to blame the advocates of that decision for its consequences?Sean_F said:A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.0 -
The other reason remain have a chance to win of course is plenty of people do support staying in even if they dislike plenty about it, and even if they don't think it is a massive risk. They are certainly quieter, certainly less passionate, and I think that will be crucial, but they are significant in number. Despite what I think are good reasons for leaving the polls are pretty close, so it's not unreasonable to see remain as having a chance. Is it as high a chance as betting has suggested? I don't think so, I'd guess that's where some value is.Lowlander said:
Was it not the case that the Swiss were warned of dire economic consequences if they voted to end free movement? Since they did vote that way the consequences have been virtually nil. From the outside the warnings to the Swiss appear to have been meaningless and the EU has looked (and continues to look) very weak on their ability to do anything of consequence.kle4 said:
Actually leaving is a bigger step than slapping the eu in the face. Other votes coukd express dissatisfaction without real risk. Personally I think the dislike is high enough people will take the risk now, but even as a leaver I've had moments of doubt about taking the leap.Lowlander said:I don't think I understand what is happening with the EU Referendum, especially the polling which seems to be saying that Remain has a chance of winning the vote. This is problematic because it doesn't seem to add up. Maybe my memory is wrong but as I recollect, there have been quite a number of votes in a lot of different countries over the last 30 years where a pro-EU side has faced off against an anti-EU side. And in all the examples I can think of the pro-EU side has been absolutely demolished, often by huge margins.
Am i not understanding something? Have there been referenda where the pro-EU side has won (other than in impoverished prospective members waiting for hand outs) ? I'm thinking of votes like the recent Swiss slap in the face to the EU, the Norway vote, the iceland vote, the various countries who all slapped the EU in the face over the EU Constitution. I can't come up with examples where a pro-EU side beat an anti-EU side anywhere.
What is it I am missing?
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The public doesn't "own" decisions though. That's not how it works. If Leave wins and it goes badly the people that advocated Leave will be blamed for it.Sean_F said:A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.
Conversely if it goes well they will probably get credit for it. However that means, among other things, no discernible economic pain.0 -
if it is a consequence of a public vote I have no doubt the public will blame the government of the day. They're not going to blame themselves now, are they?Sean_F said:A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.
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For most of the country there won't be "Leave" or "Remain" in a years time, there will just be the government.Wanderer said:
The public doesn't "own" decisions though. That's not how it works. If Leave wins and it goes badly the people that advocated Leave will be blamed for it.Sean_F said:A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.
Conversely if it goes well they will probably get credit for it. However that means, among other things, no discernible economic pain.0 -
Mr Meeks, when you talk about the Leave side suggesting that the IMF is in the pay of the European Union, which is indeed nasty, I imagine that you are talking about the people at the head of the Leave campaign. Who are all prominent Conservative politicians. So they would be nasty.
But this is not true of everybody who is leaning towards Leave.0 -
I think when this shock materializes could be very important.
Some elements may happen immediately (e.g. uncertainty about what sort of deal UK will go for)... but other bits (reduced trade with EU- if it happens) would take longer and would depend on the deal negotiated.
If the Tories are clever about timing the general election and timing the negotiation- they could minimize the effect any economic damage does to their political prospects.
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That is my point. It will be a government dominated by Leavers if Leave wins. They won't be able to evade culpability and they won't be able to claim superior economic competence if there is the widely predicted economic shock.Indigo said:
For most of the country there won't be "Leave" or "Remain" in a years time, there will just be the government.Wanderer said:
The public doesn't "own" decisions though. That's not how it works. If Leave wins and it goes badly the people that advocated Leave will be blamed for it.Sean_F said:A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.
Conversely if it goes well they will probably get credit for it. However that means, among other things, no discernible economic pain.0 -
If the economy crashed, I expect Leave would get the blame. If we suffered the kind of economic pain that the National Institute forecasts (3% less growth over four years) then I imagine the public reaction would be pretty muted.Wanderer said:
The public doesn't "own" decisions though. That's not how it works. If Leave wins and it goes badly the people that advocated Leave will be blamed for it.Sean_F said:A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.
Conversely if it goes well they will probably get credit for it. However that means, among other things, no discernible economic pain.0 -
Well, that might qualify as not discernible.Sean_F said:
If the economy crashed, I expect Leave would get the blame. If we suffered the kind of economic pain that the National Institute forecasts (3% less growth over four years) then I imagine the public reaction would be pretty muted.Wanderer said:
The public doesn't "own" decisions though. That's not how it works. If Leave wins and it goes badly the people that advocated Leave will be blamed for it.Sean_F said:A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.
Conversely if it goes well they will probably get credit for it. However that means, among other things, no discernible economic pain.0 -
It's not what I want to hear, and just because it seems the case for past elections does not mean it is the case now, but a typically interesting approach on trending for leave from atul hatwal. I guess the biggest problem is the argument of 'people say they want X, but at the end of the day y shows they don't actually want it like this' is the same logic as just reinterpreting or ignoring polls you don't like - the result might work out as you expect, but thst might be pure luck.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/06/06/snp-2014-labour-2015-vote-leave-2016/0 -
Actually it looks like the majority of referenda went the pro-EU way:Lowlander said:I don't think I understand what is happening with the EU Referendum, especially the polling which seems to be saying that Remain has a chance of winning the vote. This is problematic because it doesn't seem to add up. Maybe my memory is wrong but as I recollect, there have been quite a number of votes in a lot of different countries over the last 30 years where a pro-EU side has faced off against an anti-EU side. And in all the examples I can think of the pro-EU side has been absolutely demolished, often by huge margins.
Am i not understanding something? Have there been referenda where the pro-EU side has won (other than in impoverished prospective members waiting for hand outs) ? I'm thinking of votes like the recent Swiss slap in the face to the EU, the Norway vote, the iceland vote, the various countries who all slapped the EU in the face over the EU Constitution. I can't come up with examples where a pro-EU side beat an anti-EU side anywhere.
What is it I am missing?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_related_to_the_European_Union
How many of the other votes were actually they Status Quo vs Change?0 -
He might be right. Lots of people on both sides are going to have an almost insurmountable amount of egg on their face. The losing side because of their massive overstatement of their position, and the winning side because they are both lying and are both going to get found out, Leave because there will inevitably be at least some teething problems and short term economic concerns, and Remain because there will inevitably be much More Europe and almost certainly hats being passed around for more money. In either case there is likely to be a recession, and who ever wins will be carrying the can.kle4 said:It's not what I want to hear, and just because it seems the case for past elections does not mean it is the case now, but a typically interesting approach on trending for leave from atul hatwal. I guess the biggest problem is the argument of 'people say they want X, but at the end of the day y shows they don't actually want it like this' is the same logic as just reinterpreting or ignoring polls you don't like - the result might work out as you expect, but thst might be pure luck.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/06/06/snp-2014-labour-2015-vote-leave-2016/0 -
Rubbish.0
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Precisely so.Sean_F said:A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.0 -
Let's hope so.Sean_F said:
I don't know how they'd react. We'd be in uncharted waters. I think we may have reached a turning point in our politics in any case.AlastairMeeks said:
You don't think the public are likely to blame the advocates of that decision for its consequences?Sean_F said:A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.0 -
But in politics there is little gratitude and little (immediate) blame. The public invariably takes decisions based on who will do the best job going forward. Obviously, track record has something to do with that but not everything. Major won in 1992 despite the Conservatives being quite culpable in the recession; Blair won in 2005 despite the electorate having lost confidence over Iraq - but both times the parties they led were still more trusted than their opponents (though we should note that there may well have been a 'deferred blame' effect where the electorate did unleash their wrath once it was safe to do so).AlastairMeeks said:
That is my point. It will be a government dominated by Leavers if Leave wins. They won't be able to evade culpability and they won't be able to claim superior economic competence if there is the widely predicted economic shock.Indigo said:
For most of the country there won't be "Leave" or "Remain" in a years time, there will just be the government.Wanderer said:
The public doesn't "own" decisions though. That's not how it works. If Leave wins and it goes badly the people that advocated Leave will be blamed for it.Sean_F said:A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.
Conversely if it goes well they will probably get credit for it. However that means, among other things, no discernible economic pain.
On the main topic, I doubt that the public will be able to tell the difference between a 'Leave the EU' shock and wider economic effects. So to that end, it probably turns on whether there'll be a standard recession or not - and even then, on whether Labour would be any more trusted.0 -
I know you think there won't be an economic shock but are you seriously saying that, if there is, it is "rubbish" to suggest the by-then Leaver-run Government would be blamed for it?Casino_Royale said:Rubbish.
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Cameron has already lost the trust of the voters. He therefore has to go asap. Otherwise his trust ratings will severely damage the government. The same applies to Osborne.0
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costsdavid_herdson said:On the main topic, I doubt that the public will be able to tell the difference between a 'Leave the EU' shock and wider economic effects. So to that end, it probably turns on whether there'll be a standard recession or not - and even then, on whether Labour would be any more trusted.
I agree. The public will vote for who will make things better, not so much whose fault it is, although if both appear equally competent it is reasonable to expect people to think it is time for a change. The problem with the hypothesis in the header is whatever the public think of what happens post referendum, whoever wins, Corbyn isn't the answer, and we have had no suggestion that he is not going to be leading Labour into the 2020 election. If we are in recession, however is came about, magic money trees, open borders and pissing cash against the wall are not the answer.0 -
Honestly I'd still take Cameron over the most likely alternative, unless said alternative proves a lot better than seems likely.TCPoliticalBetting said:Cameron has already lost the trust of the voters. He therefore has to go asap. Otherwise his trust ratings will severely damage the government. The same applies to Osborne.
But then I've voted ld three times in a row, do what do I know.
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And if Remain wins and there is a recession and never ending 'austerity'?
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Even if they are blamed for it, what's the choice, they will take one look at the state of Labour and conclude that they will not make things any better.Wanderer said:
I know you think there won't be an economic shock but are you seriously saying that, if there is, it is "rubbish" to suggest the by-then Leaver-run Government would be blamed for it?Casino_Royale said:Rubbish.
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Leave have decided to pluck £20 to 40 billion off the magic money tree to pursue their hobby at a time when Britain is still running a big deficit. If that needs to be drawn on, there will be no more deriding Labour for profligacy.Indigo said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costsdavid_herdson said:On the main topic, I doubt that the public will be able to tell the difference between a 'Leave the EU' shock and wider economic effects. So to that end, it probably turns on whether there'll be a standard recession or not - and even then, on whether Labour would be any more trusted.
I agree. The public will vote for who will make things better, not so much whose fault it is, although if both appear equally competent it is reasonable to expect people to think it is time for a change. The problem with the hypothesis in the header is whatever the public think of what happens post referendum, whoever wins, Corbyn isn't the answer, and we have had no suggestion that he is not going to be leading Labour into the 2020 election. If we are in recession, however is came about, magic money trees, open borders and pissing cash against the wall are not the answer.0 -
I'm just jolly glad that I've got an invisible friend to protect me from the Wardrobe Monster. I call him ChalkyIndigo said:
Its more of the same "Don't vote Leave because you will let the boogieman in"tlg86 said:Mr Meeks, are you suggesting a series of interest rate rises if we leave the EU?
What did for the Tories on Black Wednesday was not the devaluation of the pound or us leaving the ERM. It was the interest rate rises that hit (wait for it!) hard working families. The irony, of course, is that Mr Meeks is drawing a parallel with a disastrous set of decisions taken by Europhilic Tories. Once out of the ERM things turned out okay for Britain, though not so well for Mr Major.
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People can act strangely. This government made hard choices people don't like but it won the competency battle. But now it is pretty incompetent and increasingly unpopular. If that continues and worsens, Corbyn or a successor might be seen as an answer, at leadt on the time for a change and it makes no difference front. That might be silly, but it seems plausible to me - the same basic people as before will be in place come any economic shocks, so not likely to be any more competent.Indigo said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costsdavid_herdson said:On the main topic, I doubt that the public will be able to tell the difference between a 'Leave the EU' shock and wider economic effects. So to that end, it probably turns on whether there'll be a standard recession or not - and even then, on whether Labour would be any more trusted.
I agree. The public will vote for who will make things better, not so much whose fault it is, although if both appear equally competent it is reasonable to expect people to think it is time for a change. The problem with the hypothesis in the header is whatever the public think of what happens post referendum, whoever wins, Corbyn isn't the answer, and we have had no suggestion that he is not going to be leading Labour into the 2020 election. If we are in recession, however is came about, magic money trees, open borders and pissing cash against the wall are not the answer.0 -
They won't need to, the image of the Labour leader is set in the public mind already, unless they come to their senses and elect someone else, the Tories can do what they want. This doesn't fill me with particular joy, there are plenty of stupid policies this government is following that need to be properly opposed, but the Labour membership are still off in dream land.AlastairMeeks said:
Leave have decided to pluck £20 to 40 billion off the magic money tree to pursue their hobby at a time when Britain is still running a big deficit. If that needs to be drawn on, there will be no more deriding Labour for profligacy.Indigo said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costsdavid_herdson said:On the main topic, I doubt that the public will be able to tell the difference between a 'Leave the EU' shock and wider economic effects. So to that end, it probably turns on whether there'll be a standard recession or not - and even then, on whether Labour would be any more trusted.
I agree. The public will vote for who will make things better, not so much whose fault it is, although if both appear equally competent it is reasonable to expect people to think it is time for a change. The problem with the hypothesis in the header is whatever the public think of what happens post referendum, whoever wins, Corbyn isn't the answer, and we have had no suggestion that he is not going to be leading Labour into the 2020 election. If we are in recession, however is came about, magic money trees, open borders and pissing cash against the wall are not the answer.0 -
If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.0
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2014 UKIP winning the Euroskle4 said:It's not what I want to hear, and just because it seems the case for past elections does not mean it is the case now, but a typically interesting approach on trending for leave from atul hatwal. I guess the biggest problem is the argument of 'people say they want X, but at the end of the day y shows they don't actually want it like this' is the same logic as just reinterpreting or ignoring polls you don't like - the result might work out as you expect, but thst might be pure luck.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/06/06/snp-2014-labour-2015-vote-leave-2016/
2015 SNP wipeout Scot Lab
2015 Corbyn becomes Labour leader in a landslide.
The public have shown their hand. Leave is matter of when rather than if.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Meeks, I'm reminded of a comment I made a few days ago, recalling Portillo (on This Week) wondering [about a decade ago] why the crashing pound hadn't destroyed the government.
It'd get more coverage this time due to the campaigns, but I'm not sure it matters as much as it might have in the past (in an electoral sense).0 -
That strikes me as complacent. The state of parties can change rapidly, and even if it doesn't, I don't see how an incompetent Labour Party is much worse than an incompetent Tory party. Other policies would probably see me still prefer the latter if the current labour leadership is in place, but I dont think it is a sure thing. If people don't think they can be much worse, the 'change' crowd will do better even if that change is Corbynite.Indigo said:
Even if they are blamed for it, what's the choice, they will take one look at the state of Labour and conclude that they will not make things any better.Wanderer said:
I know you think there won't be an economic shock but are you seriously saying that, if there is, it is "rubbish" to suggest the by-then Leaver-run Government would be blamed for it?Casino_Royale said:Rubbish.
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The Tories will own that too. The attack line will be: "If they had not spent so much time obsessing about Europe they could have given more thought to fixing the economy."chestnut said:And if Remain wins and there is a recession and never ending 'austerity'?
Whatever the result now, the Tories are a Corbyn replacement away from a very nasty future. Labour members are detached and very stupid, but it is possible that even they may at some stage begin to understand just what a gift the Tories have created for them.
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I agree with Sean's comments downthread. We are in unprecedented times, and I certainly don't think slower economic growth following a Leave vote will be blamed on the Conservatives to Labour's benefit, particularly under JEREMY CORBYN.Wanderer said:
I know you think there won't be an economic shock but are you seriously saying that, if there is, it is "rubbish" to suggest the by-then Leaver-run Government would be blamed for it?Casino_Royale said:Rubbish.
You could just as easily make a case that the Great British Public - in their infinite wisdom - knew precisely what they were doing in voting Leave (this economic scaremongering hasn't exactly been off the news, has it?) and trust the Conservatives to steer a path through it all to even greater prosperity far more so than Labour.
Alastair is underestimating the public and his prejudices are showing through here with phrases like "hobby horse". As per usual.
The difference with the ERM was that the Conservatives publicly shot themselves in the foot with a europhile hobby horse, which no-one voted for, then told everyone it was good for them.0 -
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.0 -
Yep, the Tories will cop the blame for that too.chestnut said:
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.
0 -
This is what really bemuses me about the whole thing. If we accept we will never join the Euro, and won't be part of a USofE, neither of which there is any evidence the public finds even remotely acceptable, then it always was a question of when and not if. The Eurozone needs to federalise to survive.chestnut said:
2014 UKIP winning the Euroskle4 said:It's not what I want to hear, and just because it seems the case for past elections does not mean it is the case now, but a typically interesting approach on trending for leave from atul hatwal. I guess the biggest problem is the argument of 'people say they want X, but at the end of the day y shows they don't actually want it like this' is the same logic as just reinterpreting or ignoring polls you don't like - the result might work out as you expect, but thst might be pure luck.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/06/06/snp-2014-labour-2015-vote-leave-2016/
2015 SNP wipeout Scot Lab
2015 Corbyn becomes Labour leader in a landslide.
The public have shown their hand. Leave is matter of when rather than if.
All this tortuous argument is nothing more than a holding action, within the next ten years we are going to be out anyway. This won't be a good vs evil argument, and xenophobes vs internationalists argument or any of that crap, it will be an economic or political necessity argument.
The Remain argument is that now is not the time, but are we even remotely sure that the times when we get forced out will be any better ? All we know for sure is we are going to be more integrated by then, and its going to be more painful and more difficult to extract ourselves.0 -
No one is predicting a £20 to 40 billion economic shock in the event of Remain.chestnut said:
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.
It's staggering just how much money Leavers are prepared to allocate to their pet project at a time when public budgets are under such strain.0 -
The vote looks to be heading towards Leave and doing so at increasing pace. As the Remain campaign have already threatened war and ruin I can't wait to see what threats will be unveiled this weekend - perhaps the killing of the first born male child in every household, or an absolute ban on British from holidaying get anywhere other than Weston-super-Mare. Both sides have talked utter nonsense, but remain have made utter idiots of themselves.
As for the Tories there is no gluing them back together. Unless it's a big win for remain Cameron will be gone and quickly - his authority and credibility have gone. I tipped Boris to lead Leave, leave to win, Boris to become leader on New Year's Day (on Facebook...) and I'm confident that's going to transpire. How he is able to pull together the broken ruin of the parliamentary Tory party remains to be seen. An election within 12 months seems likely.0 -
their pet project is commanding the support of around 40% of the public, mindAlastairMeeks said:
No one is predicting a £20 to 40 billion economic shock in the event of Remain.chestnut said:
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.
It's staggering just how much money Leavers are prepared to allocate to their pet project at a time when public budgets are under such strain.0 -
A couple of points - if we vote to Leave then a large chunk of blame will fall heavily on the shoulders of Corbyn. His abject failure to involve himself in the referendum campaign and to get out the Labour Remain voters will not be forgotten. I honestly believe that so deluded are his followers that the think a vote to leave will be worth it to see Cameron on the losing side...and if they means tanking the economy then so be it.
Secondly, a new PM calling an early GE will avoid all the grief of those pesky economic warning bells. We all know that nothing unites the Tory party more than a GE. Of course it would require two-thirds of Parliament to support it.
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Except that we will be saving 8 billion a year or so in payments to the EU, which over a parliament easily covers that 20-40bn.AlastairMeeks said:
No one is predicting a £20 to 40 billion economic shock in the event of Remain.chestnut said:
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.
It's staggering just how much money Leavers are prepared to allocate to their pet project at a time when public budgets are under such strain.
In practise we will save more than that because we won't be sending a percentage of all our VAT payments to the EU, or 75% of any trade tariffs.0 -
£25bn a year in EU fees and Aid.AlastairMeeks said:
No one is predicting a £20 to 40 billion economic shock in the event of Remain.chestnut said:
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.
It's staggering just how much money Leavers are prepared to allocate to their pet project at a time when public budgets are under such strain.
It's staggering that Remain continues to justify spending money that way whilst we are fed tales of crisis in housing, education, healthcare, social care etc.0 -
Cameron has made a decision. He has chosen the win the battle with the Leavers (the EU) and possibly lose the war (the GE).. A divided party is a liability, but that is what he has chosen. Possibly on the assumption that Jezza is unelectable.
He went into politics, because he thought he might be quite good at it, and I suspect the legacy he has chosen is the EU. I'm sure he could well have chosen another party to join, but his background always suggested the Tories
But Jezza is just for Christmas - in 2020 he may be facing McDonnell. And he may end up losing both.
I noticed that the FTSE went up yesterday when Sterling went down. They are both gambles and will rise and fall from day to day. Sustained bad economic news will hurt the pound and if we could predict the economic future, the gamblers would always win. Do they?0 -
Remainers are happy to give staggering sums of tax payers money to their pet project, the EU.Indigo said:
Except that we will be saving 8 billion a year or so in payments to the EU, which over a parliament easily covers that 20-40bn.AlastairMeeks said:
No one is predicting a £20 to 40 billion economic shock in the event of Remain.chestnut said:
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.
It's staggering just how much money Leavers are prepared to allocate to their pet project at a time when public budgets are under such strain.
In practise we will save more than that because we won't be sending a percentage of all our VAT payments to the EU, or 75% of any trade tariffs.0 -
That's an argument against any kind of change from the status quo.AlastairMeeks said:
No one is predicting a £20 to 40 billion economic shock in the event of Remain.chestnut said:
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.
It's staggering just how much money Leavers are prepared to allocate to their pet project at a time when public budgets are under such strain.0 -
We conclude that the net UK contribution to the EU over the next few years is indeed likely to be about £8 billion a year, £8 billion which would become available for other things were we to leave. However we also point out that even a small negative effect of just 0.6% on national income from leaving the EU would damage the public finances by more than that £8 billion. There is virtual unanimity among economic forecasters that the negative economic effect of leaving the EU would be greater than that. That is why we conclude that leaving the EU would not, as Michael Gove claims we said, leave more money to spend on the NHS. Rather it would leave us spending less on public services, or taxing more, or borrowing more.chestnut said:
£25bn a year in EU fees and Aid.AlastairMeeks said:
No one is predicting a £20 to 40 billion economic shock in the event of Remain.chestnut said:
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.
It's staggering just how much money Leavers are prepared to allocate to their pet project at a time when public budgets are under such strain.
It's staggering that Remain continues to justify spending money that way whilst we are fed tales of crisis in housing, education, healthcare, social care etc.
http://www.ifs.org.uk/about/blog/346
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http://www.ifs.org.uk/about/blog/346Indigo said:
Except that we will be saving 8 billion a year or so in payments to the EU, which over a parliament easily covers that 20-40bn.AlastairMeeks said:
No one is predicting a £20 to 40 billion economic shock in the event of Remain.chestnut said:
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.
It's staggering just how much money Leavers are prepared to allocate to their pet project at a time when public budgets are under such strain.
In practise we will save more than that because we won't be sending a percentage of all our VAT payments to the EU, or 75% of any trade tariffs.
0 -
Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.0
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I thought @Sean_F made the point well when he said some people see Sterling as a virility symbol, and don't understand the flipside re exports.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Meeks, I'm reminded of a comment I made a few days ago, recalling Portillo (on This Week) wondering [about a decade ago] why the crashing pound hadn't destroyed the government.
It'd get more coverage this time due to the campaigns, but I'm not sure it matters as much as it might have in the past (in an electoral sense).
Post-Brexit, I'd expect acres and acres of hyperbole in the media about every teeny-weeny change - with everything blamed on the Leave vote. A bit like global warming back in the late 00s. And then it'll calm down, and we'll get on with things.
In my lifetime, I can only recall perhaps two or three things that really tipped the scales - such as 9/11 or global crash. Brexit is 90% boring paperwork changes and 10% hard-nosed negotiation. I'm a bit of worrier by nature - and it doesn't concern me at all.0 -
I just read that we pay on average £2.2bn of VAT every year to the EU.MonikerDiCanio said:
Remainers are happy to give staggering sums of tax payers money to their pet project, the EU.Indigo said:
Except that we will be saving 8 billion a year or so in payments to the EU, which over a parliament easily covers that 20-40bn.AlastairMeeks said:
No one is predicting a £20 to 40 billion economic shock in the event of Remain.chestnut said:
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.
It's staggering just how much money Leavers are prepared to allocate to their pet project at a time when public budgets are under such strain.
In practise we will save more than that because we won't be sending a percentage of all our VAT payments to the EU, or 75% of any trade tariffs.0 -
No, it's an argument that Leavers are choosing to waste money on this project rather than put it into schools, hospitals, defence or local government - or reducing the deficit.Sean_F said:
That's an argument against any kind of change from the status quo.AlastairMeeks said:
No one is predicting a £20 to 40 billion economic shock in the event of Remain.chestnut said:
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.
It's staggering just how much money Leavers are prepared to allocate to their pet project at a time when public budgets are under such strain.
That is the choice Leavers are making. Don't be surprised when Labour argue that the money should have been spent on more practical priorities.0 -
They are no longer in an immediate hurry after Friday's awful payroll figureschestnut said:
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.0 -
So you are in the 18% or fewer that trust Cameron. Which is what lib dems used to get.kle4 said:
Honestly I'd still take Cameron over the most likely alternative, unless said alternative proves a lot better than seems likely.TCPoliticalBetting said:Cameron has already lost the trust of the voters. He therefore has to go asap. Otherwise his trust ratings will severely damage the government. The same applies to Osborne.
But then I've voted ld three times in a row, do what do I know.0 -
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
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More foreigners issuing dire warnings from project fear this morning. Where are the sunny uplands from REMAIN?0
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Which figures, since Dave is a Lib Dem in all but name.TCPoliticalBetting said:
So you are in the 18% or fewer that trust Cameron. Which is what lib dems used to get.kle4 said:
Honestly I'd still take Cameron over the most likely alternative, unless said alternative proves a lot better than seems likely.TCPoliticalBetting said:Cameron has already lost the trust of the voters. He therefore has to go asap. Otherwise his trust ratings will severely damage the government. The same applies to Osborne.
But then I've voted ld three times in a row, do what do I know.0 -
That's the problem with referenda, in many cases they're used to punish people rather than on the merits of the question.TheKrakenAwakes said:A couple of points - if we vote to Leave then a large chunk of blame will fall heavily on the shoulders of Corbyn. His abject failure to involve himself in the referendum campaign and to get out the Labour Remain voters will not be forgotten. I honestly believe that so deluded are his followers that the think a vote to leave will be worth it to see Cameron on the losing side...and if they means tanking the economy then so be it.
Secondly, a new PM calling an early GE will avoid all the grief of those pesky economic warning bells. We all know that nothing unites the Tory party more than a GE. Of course it would require two-thirds of Parliament to support it.0 -
Ed Balls & Co claimed ad nauseum that "taking £6bn out of the economy" would kill any chance of our recovery/it'll be a calamity.Casino_Royale said:
I agree with Sean's comments downthread. We are in unprecedented times, and I certainly don't think slower economic growth following a Leave vote will be blamed on the Conservatives to Labour's benefit, particularly under JEREMY CORBYN.Wanderer said:
I know you think there won't be an economic shock but are you seriously saying that, if there is, it is "rubbish" to suggest the by-then Leaver-run Government would be blamed for it?Casino_Royale said:Rubbish.
You could just as easily make a case that the Great British Public - in their infinite wisdom - knew precisely what they were doing in voting Leave (this economic scaremongering hasn't exactly been off the news, has it?) and trust the Conservatives to steer a path through it all to even greater prosperity far more so than Labour.
Alastair is underestimating the public and his prejudices are showing through here with phrases like "hobby horse". As per usual.
The difference with the ERM was that the Conservatives publicly shot themselves in the foot with a europhile hobby horse, which no-one voted for, then told everyone it was good for them.
The Great British Public thought that seemed a risk worth taking to fix a bigger problem. And after a bit of a wobbly start, trade and jobs picked up. I expect much of the same re Brexit, it's a calculated risk. And I'd expect the Tories to win against a Corbynite Opposition.0 -
Yes but so far Dave has not dragged his party into the 20 percentage level. Still has time.Indigo said:
Which figures, since Dave is a Lib Dem in all but name.TCPoliticalBetting said:
So you are in the 18% or fewer that trust Cameron. Which is what lib dems used to get.kle4 said:
Honestly I'd still take Cameron over the most likely alternative, unless said alternative proves a lot better than seems likely.TCPoliticalBetting said:Cameron has already lost the trust of the voters. He therefore has to go asap. Otherwise his trust ratings will severely damage the government. The same applies to Osborne.
But then I've voted ld three times in a row, do what do I know.-1 -
I think Cameron is wrong on the eu issue, but I'm not offended as some are that he has acted like a politician, and a desperate one, in order to try to win, he's Also failed done key measures, but we could do a lot worse than him as PM. Not a great endorsement, and I hope I'm proved wrong about his replacements, but odds are his replacement will be worse.TCPoliticalBetting said:
So you are in the 18% or fewer that trust Cameron. Which is what lib dems used to get.kle4 said:
Honestly I'd still take Cameron over the most likely alternative, unless said alternative proves a lot better than seems likely.TCPoliticalBetting said:Cameron has already lost the trust of the voters. He therefore has to go asap. Otherwise his trust ratings will severely damage the government. The same applies to Osborne.
But then I've voted ld three times in a row, do what do I know.0 -
Well he did drag them up first at least.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes but so far Dave has not dragged his party into the 20 percentage level. Still has time.Indigo said:
Which figures, since Dave is a Lib Dem in all but name.TCPoliticalBetting said:
So you are in the 18% or fewer that trust Cameron. Which is what lib dems used to get.kle4 said:
Honestly I'd still take Cameron over the most likely alternative, unless said alternative proves a lot better than seems likely.TCPoliticalBetting said:Cameron has already lost the trust of the voters. He therefore has to go asap. Otherwise his trust ratings will severely damage the government. The same applies to Osborne.
But then I've voted ld three times in a row, do what do I know.0 -
Mandy on Sky "don't trust me, look at this on Page TEN of the Mirror" as he holds it up and reads from it.
0 -
A diminution of GDP over the next one to 10 years, which surely no sane Leaver or Remainer disputes will happen, will be almost imperceptible to the vast majority of the country. GDP would have been X, it turns out to be 0.yX.
So what?
Destruction of value, jobs lost, are always difficult to drop on your foot unless they are directly affecting you, and are certainly near impossible to connect to some larger exogenous event.
The tragedy for me for a Brexit, however, will be exactly that value destroyed, the wealth not created and, oh the irony, the almost certain increase in number and complexity of hoops which businesses will have to jump through to comply with whatever new regulatory environment we find ourselves in. All of which will come at a cost. We could have grown by X, it turns out we will grow by 0.yX.
Just as if we vote in Labour governments, we will survive, it is just a shame at the needless waste and opportunity cost the people who will to a smaller or greater extent, pay for it. As @SouthamObserver notes, usually the people who can least afford it.0 -
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
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The nuance of this thread is that the banks and bureaucrats will punish the great unwashed for voting Leave if that were to take place.
Why didnt Carney raise rates 7 weeks ago when STG vs a basket of currencies other than the USD was around 6% lower than today. For example £ was 1.82 vs the AUD
vs 1.96 now.
We have a floating currency. I agree that currency flows in the event of Brexit are likely to be disrupted for awhile but we have not seen a great rush to the financial exits yet which considering the polling you would have thought may have happened.
Sell the rumour buy the fact used to be the old adage. Wonder if that will be the case here.
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I love that of our last 3 PMs, 2 were not even really of the party they led for a decade or more, as common wisdom has it. Major seems accepted as a Tory I believe, so that's 50% of the last 4 were of the party they led at least.Indigo said:
Which figures, since Dave is a Lib Dem in all but name.TCPoliticalBetting said:
So you are in the 18% or fewer that trust Cameron. Which is what lib dems used to get.kle4 said:
Honestly I'd still take Cameron over the most likely alternative, unless said alternative proves a lot better than seems likely.TCPoliticalBetting said:Cameron has already lost the trust of the voters. He therefore has to go asap. Otherwise his trust ratings will severely damage the government. The same applies to Osborne.
But then I've voted ld three times in a row, do what do I know.0 -
If most people favour this project, then it won't have been a waste.AlastairMeeks said:
No, it's an argument that Leavers are choosing to waste money on this project rather than put it into schools, hospitals, defence or local government - or reducing the deficit.Sean_F said:
That's an argument against any kind of change from the status quo.AlastairMeeks said:
No one is predicting a £20 to 40 billion economic shock in the event of Remain.chestnut said:
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.
It's staggering just how much money Leavers are prepared to allocate to their pet project at a time when public budgets are under such strain.
That is the choice Leavers are making. Don't be surprised when Labour argue that the money should have been spent on more practical priorities.0 -
But we dont know what the opportunity costs have been of some of Osbournes poor decision making..feed that into the equation.TOPPING said:A diminution of GDP over the next one to 10 years, which surely no sane Leaver or Remainer disputes will happen, will be almost imperceptible to the vast majority of the country. GDP would have been X, it turns out to be 0.yX.
So what?
Destruction of value, jobs lost, are always difficult to drop on your foot unless they are directly affecting you, and are certainly near impossible to connect to some larger exogenous event.
The tragedy for me for a Brexit, however, will be exactly that value destroyed, the wealth not created and, oh the irony, the almost certain increase in number and complexity of hoops which businesses will have to jump through to comply with whatever new regulatory environment we find ourselves in. All of which will come at a cost. We could have grown by X, it turns out we will grow by 0.yX.
Just as if we vote in Labour governments, we will survive, it is just a shame at the needless waste and opportunity cost the people who will to a smaller or greater extent, pay for it. As @SouthamObserver notes, usually the people who can least afford it.
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The alleged £20-£40bn increase in the deficit is in 2019/20 not this year or next. From the FT:
"It found in its central range of estimates that the economy was still likely to be bigger in 2019-20 than today, but there might be a recession and overall growth would be between 2.1 per cent and 3.5 per cent lower than if Britain stayed in the EU.
This level of disappointment would leave the budget deficit in 2019-20 about £20bn-£40bn higher than otherwise, the IFS said. In calculating that figure, it took account of gains from Britain no longer paying into the EU budget, finding these were more than offset by the effects of a weaker economy on tax revenues."
So the model (which incidentally was not the IFS's own model but someone else's) assumes continued growth but at a more modest level. How on earth is anyone ever going to know whether this model was correct in either scenario? There will be no comparator in or out.
It is likely over that period that the UK will remain one of the faster growing economies in Europe in or out of the EU. It is also likely that by 2019 there will have been an election and a new government will be in place. That is looking increasingly likely regardless of the result.
1992 was a cataclysmic event that scored the public consciousness. I am not aware of any serious commentator that is suggesting anything similar in the event of Brexit. At worst there is a majority view that over an extended period (and the leave path itself will take at least 2 years) that not being in the single market, if that is what happens, will reduce long term growth by this amount. I think we will have access to the single market although I accept that the terms of that access remain uncertain at this point. If that is the case this model is simply not applicable.
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Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
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But that is pure short termism, its what we continually criticise British Management for in the way they run their business. It's always about the next year's dividend, not about growing the company for the future. Similarly here everyone is crying over how it will be a bit worse for the next few years without considering how much better is will be after that.TOPPING said:A diminution of GDP over the next one to 10 years, which surely no sane Leaver or Remainer disputes will happen, will be almost imperceptible to the vast majority of the country. GDP would have been X, it turns out to be 0.yX.
All this handwringing about you wont notice it until it affects you is true about almost every government policy that involves money and yet you supported all of those. When the government introduced the benefit cap, plenty of people felt that, a lot of them considerably more than they are going to feel the results of BrExit, and yet that was fine with you.
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I see guido is still on election expenses. If his reporting us even close to accurate then apart from some like Clegg or cat smith which seem more egregious, it seems difficult to go after peopLe as most parties have breached in dozens of seats.0
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5 July 1945, when the voters sacked Churchill and replaced the Empire with the Welfare State.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
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No indeed, as I mentioned, it is all a gloop and difficult to extract clean factors.timmo said:
But we dont know what the opportunity costs have been of some of Osbournes poor decision making..feed that into the equation.TOPPING said:A diminution of GDP over the next one to 10 years, which surely no sane Leaver or Remainer disputes will happen, will be almost imperceptible to the vast majority of the country. GDP would have been X, it turns out to be 0.yX.
So what?
Destruction of value, jobs lost, are always difficult to drop on your foot unless they are directly affecting you, and are certainly near impossible to connect to some larger exogenous event.
The tragedy for me for a Brexit, however, will be exactly that value destroyed, the wealth not created and, oh the irony, the almost certain increase in number and complexity of hoops which businesses will have to jump through to comply with whatever new regulatory environment we find ourselves in. All of which will come at a cost. We could have grown by X, it turns out we will grow by 0.yX.
Just as if we vote in Labour governments, we will survive, it is just a shame at the needless waste and opportunity cost the people who will to a smaller or greater extent, pay for it. As @SouthamObserver notes, usually the people who can least afford it.
But regardless, leaving the EU will come at some cost and I don't happen to think it is necessary.0 -
Being (for the sake of argument) 15% better off in 10 years time, as opposed to 20%, is no tragedy.TOPPING said:A diminution of GDP over the next one to 10 years, which surely no sane Leaver or Remainer disputes will happen, will be almost imperceptible to the vast majority of the country. GDP would have been X, it turns out to be 0.yX.
So what?
Destruction of value, jobs lost, are always difficult to drop on your foot unless they are directly affecting you, and are certainly near impossible to connect to some larger exogenous event.
The tragedy for me for a Brexit, however, will be exactly that value destroyed, the wealth not created and, oh the irony, the almost certain increase in number and complexity of hoops which businesses will have to jump through to comply with whatever new regulatory environment we find ourselves in. All of which will come at a cost. We could have grown by X, it turns out we will grow by 0.yX.
Just as if we vote in Labour governments, we will survive, it is just a shame at the needless waste and opportunity cost the people who will to a smaller or greater extent, pay for it. As @SouthamObserver notes, usually the people who can least afford it.0 -
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
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And you think leaving the EU is retreating into reactionary isolation?!AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
Isolation is permanently entrenching yourself into an inward-looking regional bloc of countries that are in decline.
Europe is a small - and (in relative terms) getting smaller - part of the world.
Britain is a global player, a great power... time to revert to the long-term norm (we joined the EEC at our post-War low point in the 1970s). As Dan Hannan keeps saying.. "how big do we have to be?" in order for people to consider being an independent player on the world stage?!0 -
Andrew Neil pointed out that even after the rebate, we've still handed at least £10bn more to the EU than we've saved during the same *austerity* period.Indigo said:
Except that we will be saving 8 billion a year or so in payments to the EU, which over a parliament easily covers that 20-40bn.AlastairMeeks said:
No one is predicting a £20 to 40 billion economic shock in the event of Remain.chestnut said:
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.
It's staggering just how much money Leavers are prepared to allocate to their pet project at a time when public budgets are under such strain.
In practise we will save more than that because we won't be sending a percentage of all our VAT payments to the EU, or 75% of any trade tariffs.0 -
Some years ago, I remember a survey which showed that managed funds did worse, on average, than tracker funds. Yet people continued to pay fees to enable other people to lose money for them. A strange, illogical belief in economic experts.
A little like the famous Horace Bachelor of yore who claimed to be able to predict the Pools. Yet he never retired on the profits he should have made.
I understand economics as an academic exercise - a little like a language. It's useful when you talk to others. And some of the basics are axiomatic in a market, but as a predictive exercise, it all seems pointless.0 -
All the EU is (economically) is a heavily regulated customs union with harmonisations in some areas to reduce non-tariff barriers within it. That's basically it.PlatoSaid said:
I thought @Sean_F made the point well when he said some people see Sterling as a virility symbol, and don't understand the flipside re exports.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Meeks, I'm reminded of a comment I made a few days ago, recalling Portillo (on This Week) wondering [about a decade ago] why the crashing pound hadn't destroyed the government.
It'd get more coverage this time due to the campaigns, but I'm not sure it matters as much as it might have in the past (in an electoral sense).
Post-Brexit, I'd expect acres and acres of hyperbole in the media about every teeny-weeny change - with everything blamed on the Leave vote. A bit like global warming back in the late 00s. And then it'll calm down, and we'll get on with things.
In my lifetime, I can only recall perhaps two or three things that really tipped the scales - such as 9/11 or global crash. Brexit is 90% boring paperwork changes and 10% hard-nosed negotiation. I'm a bit of worrier by nature - and it doesn't concern me at all.
As long as we can trade freely with it, the economic effects of Brexit are negligible.0 -
I don't accept the premise of the views of the populace being a hobby horse - but call me a democrat.AlastairMeeks said:
No, it's an argument that Leavers are choosing to waste money on this project rather than put it into schools, hospitals, defence or local government - or reducing the deficit.Sean_F said:
That's an argument against any kind of change from the status quo.AlastairMeeks said:
No one is predicting a £20 to 40 billion economic shock in the event of Remain.chestnut said:
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.
It's staggering just how much money Leavers are prepared to allocate to their pet project at a time when public budgets are under such strain.
That is the choice Leavers are making. Don't be surprised when Labour argue that the money should have been spent on more practical priorities.
But even if I did, this argument falls down presently because Labour do not have practical priorities which chime with the public mood. UBI is pie in the sky, not a popular alternative to austerity.0 -
Hmm not so. For his many faults, GO has gone a small way to try to rebalance the economy, with the examples you cite, in order to shrink the state.Indigo said:
But that is pure short termism, its what we continually criticise British Management for in the way they run their business. It's always about the next year's dividend, not about growing the company for the future. Similarly here everyone is crying over how it will be a bit worse for the next few years without considering how much better is will be after that.TOPPING said:A diminution of GDP over the next one to 10 years, which surely no sane Leaver or Remainer disputes will happen, will be almost imperceptible to the vast majority of the country. GDP would have been X, it turns out to be 0.yX.
All this handwringing about you wont notice it until it affects you is true about almost every government policy that involves money and yet you supported all of those. When the government introduced the benefit cap, plenty of people felt that, a lot of them considerably more than they are going to feel the results of BrExit, and yet that was fine with you.
That is very different from a wholly unnecessary disruption to relations with our largest trading partner.0 -
Isolation is throwing up your hands and deciding not to engage meaningfully with your closest neighbours because it's all too difficult, barring the door and drawing the curtains. That is how Leave is campaigning.CornishBlue said:
And you think leaving the EU is retreating into reactionary isolation?!AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
Isolation is permanently entrenching yourself into an inward-looking regional bloc of countries that are in decline.0 -
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
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I agree but hope we won't do that.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
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