politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As voter registration for the referendum closes tomorrow so
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As voter registration for the referendum closes tomorrow some facts and figures
Since the launch of the Electoral Commission’s public awareness campaign on 15 May, over 1.35 million people have applied to register to vote online across Great Britain.
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3 polls put leave ahead.
Cameron stands next to Hattie and starts going on about bombs.
Kinnock Junior gets up on his hind legs and says ITS ALWIGHT,ITS ALWIGHT WE WILL JUST IGNORE THE RESULT.
And now Neil kebabs Benn.
- and pb remainers start throwing in the towel
Hols for me on Wednesday - off to St. Brelade's Bay for some rest, might even catch a bit of the seniors tour golf!
*chortle*
My main thought this morning was that Kinnock and Straw juniors have not a fraction of the political nous of their peres.
As any EICIPM gloaters from 21:59 May 7 2015 may remember.
Far too early for any complacency, let along gloating
It only takes one phone poll from IPSOS showing a 10 point REMAIN lead for all this energy and optimism to fizzle away, very quickly
REMAIN are still, rightly, favourites. Though it is much closer than we all anticipated.
Eyes down for the last 17 days.. And I'm going for a much needed walk.
Would u campaign for Leave such as canvassing?
I do worry about both Farage and IDS to come. If Neil asks Farage about his ridiculous Cologne sex attack comments then he should just apologies there and then and say he got it wrong, and contrast that with the entrenched positions of the remain campaign. That's the moment I fear when Farage comes up against Cameron against Wembley, and if he tries to get too clever and use a football analogy or something of the sort as well.
IDS I'd have the same worry as Benn jnr - not quick enough thinking on his feet to avoid being pole-axed by Neil, but he's not as bad as Benn jnr on that score.
It has been an appalling campaign by both sides. I see why so many Scots groan at the prospect of having another neverendum.
On the positive side I will be a grand up if Leave win. It always was the value bet.
Hope to see you at another PB drinkies.
At best it's TCTC, with perhaps a smidgen of quiet optimism,
https://encrypted.google.com/finance/chart?biw=1517&bih=714&espv=2&q=CURRENCY:GBPEUR&tkr=1&p=5Y&chst=vkc&chs=270x94&chsc=0.8999999761581421&ei=fstVV5vSDozagAbYkqG4CQ
My Youtube viewing has thrown up the same ad twice now by Vote Leave - "Paving the Road from Ankara".
It's from a video of a Cameron speech - the title comes from his words - and it's interspersed with a video of the Turkish Parliament having a punch up last month.
Very shortly there will be a referendum in which Leave will win.
If you're not sure what I'm talking about, I don't think this piece has ever been linked on PB
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
Sterling needs to fall, name the last time anywhere that a developed country in the world was running a 7% current account deficit? - the worst as a % of GDP since records began in 1774 in the UK!
@jonwalker121: Former MP Sion Simon becomes first politician to confirm officially he wants to stand for West Midlands mayor https://t.co/z5l83ynFlF
Leave are hindered by Galloway's presence, Farage's inability to sound reasonable without making questionable assertions about rapists. Johnson citing obscure regulations on the length of bananas. Gove does a good interview on a sunny Friday night, during half term, to an audience who have found the programme by accident after surfing through 50 channels.
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/2016/06/spx-and-bkx-still-chop-zone.html
But I think its about to give way later on this week. Not often that I like to see calm markets!
http://www.xe.com/currencytables/?from=GBP&date=2009-06-06
Could the UK tip the world into a recession ? After all, we are supposed to be the 5th largest economy. If we go into a sharp recession , that could have an impact.
One person who has avoided being dragged into the PM's mess is Ruth Davidson. If she has any sense (which, she has) she will stay well away.
If Remain are trailing in the polls with a day or two to go I expect Corbyn and Cameron to make a joint appearance.
This chart shows that despite Brexit looming for months the pound has stayed within normal boundaries and continues to do so right this second.
It shows that the pound is higher than it has been for most of the last few years.
Remain are one step away from bringing on Elvis or unveiling a tombstone.
As I said over the weekend, the leave campaign has to pound the message that there is NO STATUS QUO in this campaign to counter the inevitable late swing towards remain. The narrative about the UK being on hock for contributions to the EU budget was an excellent theme. Now they have to keep pushing the 'more Brussels' line if we stay in. Nothing wrong with the tactics today.
Labour are essentially defending the status quo, which is toxic for any left-wing party, just as it was for Scottish Labour when they defended the status quo in the independence referendum. Benn saying that wages as they are now are just fine, that living standards are just fine, that high levels of immigration are an inevitability, that we shouldn't risk upsetting the apple-cart in case things go wrong......it was all very reminiscent of Alistair Darling defending the UK's status quo in one of the independence debates.
Most Labour voters (whether they're working-class voters looking to improve their own circumstances, or the hopey-changey idealists who want to dream big about what can happen in future) do not want to hear that Things Can Never Get Better.
Urban dictionary is normally quite useful when I'm not sure what you're referring to TSE.
That is not the case though. Even at this second, after a so-called collapse sterling is still up not down.
Just look at how Benn was squirming over the EU preventing mass nationalisations.
Things can only get better
....Errrm no Messrs Blair and Mandelson - things are only getting worse for Labour as you say.
How I remember that song from April 1997 when campaigning in Eltham to no avail!
Cameron was granted a year's grace on the promise of a referendum to win an election and conduct a successful renegotiation.
As soon as he under-delivered the polls have started to move back to Leave.
To put this in context, in the three and half years leading up to Sindy, leave only led four times. It's happening four times a week with the EU.
FTSE100 +1.03%
GBP/EUR - 0.40%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/overview/
He placed a bigger bomb under it six years ago - the George Osbomb.
Borrowing so far £180bn over forecast.
Growth so far 3.3% under forecast.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wt0__X-Be8k
Worth watching the rest too of course - ignore the (literally) shaky start.
"they will claim that the voters have rejected the corporatist economic orthodoxy"
They can claim anything they like. Won't make them any more credible.
How can Labour credibly say they will negotiate Brexit when 90% of Lab MPs don't support it? And not one leading figure in the Lab party supports it? It would be completely insane.
Yet if Lab say they will remain in the EU, that will look totally absurd as it would be openly defying the result of the referendum.
The only option appears to be for Lab to vote against a dissolution of Parliament in order to avoid a GE. But that would look pretty absurd too - rejecting the chance of winning power.
The whole thing adds up to a complete and utter mess.
I do however wish to know when the Obama effect kicks in. Can anyone tell me?
Not only will Labour have lost consecutive elections, not only will Corbyn have the overwhelming backing of members, but on the totemic issue of the EU then the Labour Remaniancs will have been shown to be out of touch with the nation.
Corbyn if anything will be strengthened vis a vis his MPs if there is a Leave victory.
.
Now you can argue that it'd be better if they pretended to think the EU was absolutely fine, but they don't do pretend. People (like me and Hilary Benn) who do think it's pretty good are not in tune with most people on this, and in particular not in tune with undecided voters. It's auite difficult to put a nuanced position across - the media can't be bothered with it and just pick out a couple of lines. But this isn't the time for rah-rah cheerleading.
Students who registered at uni for the General last year and stayed on the register for the locals will also be needing to register at home for the first time.
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/register_to_vote
Can't see any problems with it .
Lab won't be able to do that.
When is the last time a Government (of any party) took though Parliament a major piece of legislation which it didn't support? The whole concept of such a thing actually happening is completely barmy.
A friend has been canvassing in a traditional predominantly WWC area of inner London.
80% of respondents are for Leave.
The last few days have undoubtedly been good for Leave and the direction of travel is encouraging. By with more than 2 weeks yet to go I simply can't imagine we won't have either a standout performance from a Remain spokesman or a disastrous performance from a Leave spokesman which could change everything. Everything is just too febrile and I will really not believe it is possible for us to win until those polls close on 23rd June.