politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A tale of two broadcasts. Roger’s critique of the opening t

Wanderer said:

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

or false?

Apparently it's genuine but only in Bristol.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/29/voters-in-the-eu-referendum-told-to-vote-for-remain-in-postal-vo/

If true, that's extraordinary.

I'm astounded that the returning officer thought it was a good idea. Presumably there would be the possibility to strike down the whole of the Bristol postal vote?

1) It's Bristol and they'll all vote remain anyway;

2) The returning officer there is so far as I can judge incapable of thought, so your premise is flawed. Bristol makes Islington Labour Party in the good old days of Hodge look efficient, sane, equitable and well-run.

(1) And that's the issue.

If - and it's a big if, but I don't know electoral law - the votes are deemed invalid as a result of the guidance and either have to be re-issued or re-run or struck out that's really not good. It's not good for Remain; if it's close (or worse still changes the result) that also plays into the narrative of a corrupted vote that some people might claim

Likely to shift 0 votes so hard for it to change the result.

Doesn't matter - you can't prove that. It's undermines the perceived fairness of the vote in a very tangible way that people will "get"

(I think it will have a subliminal effect among waverers, but I can't prove that either)

Innocent_Abroad said:

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

or false?

Apparently it's genuine but only in Bristol.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/29/voters-in-the-eu-referendum-told-to-vote-for-remain-in-postal-vo/

If true, that's extraordinary.

I'm astounded that the returning officer thought it was a good idea. Presumably there would be the possibility to strike down the whole of the Bristol postal vote?

1) It's Bristol and they'll all vote remain anyway;

2) The returning officer there is so far as I can judge incapable of thought, so your premise is flawed. Bristol makes Islington Labour Party in the good old days of Hodge look efficient, sane, equitable and well-run.

(1) And that's the issue.

If - and it's a big if, but I don't know electoral law - the votes are deemed invalid as a result of the guidance and either have to be re-issued or re-run or struck out that's really not good. It's not good for Remain; if it's close (or worse still changes the result) that also plays into the narrative of a corrupted vote that some people might claim

Might claim? I'd say that if REMAIN win by less than 20% it's a certainty.

Probably, but this is the sort of tangible evidence - rather than whether it actually has an effect or not - that normal people could believe

surbiton said:

I have read Philip Walker's piece a couple of threads back. I am not that gloomy about Labour as he is. He is a Brexiter mind.

Nonetheless, it was too good an opportunity not to look at the detailed YouGov data. This is what I make of it:

GE2015
C 545
Lab 477
LD 121
UKIP 191
Others 188

Total 1522

Having excluded the DK / WNV , the current VI gives in percentages:

IN OUT

C 40.41% 59.59%
Lab 74.26% 25.74%
LD 78.72% 21.28%
UKIP 2.45% 97.55%
Others 66.92% 33.08%

Putting this back into the GE15 [ but excluding DK/WNV ]

IN OUT


C 220 325
Lab 354 123
LD 95 26
UKIP 5 186
Others 126 62

Total 800 722

52.5% 47.5%

What struck me were the Labour and Tory splits. Remember many Labour OUTers already identify themselves with UKIP. so Lab IN % will go up. But this also applies to Tories. And despite the defection to UKIP, still 60% of GE2015 Tories identify with Brexit.

By the way, I feel most DK/WNV's will opt for IN. They are still 13.7% of the VI total.

Make no mistake, if RemaIN wins, it was Labour voters wot won it !

I'm going to make a rash prediction - that 2015 Labour voter split is going to end up MUCH closer to 50:50 than polling suggests. Labour Remainers are pushing the case for the EU protecting workers' rights. But their voters are actually more worried that those rights might be being enjoyed by a Pole or a Romanian, rather than by them or their kids...

Charles said:

Wanderer said:

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

or false?

Apparently it's genuine but only in Bristol.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/29/voters-in-the-eu-referendum-told-to-vote-for-remain-in-postal-vo/

If true, that's extraordinary.

I'm astounded that the returning officer thought it was a good idea. Presumably there would be the possibility to strike down the whole of the Bristol postal vote?

1) It's Bristol and they'll all vote remain anyway;

2) The returning officer there is so far as I can judge incapable of thought, so your premise is flawed. Bristol makes Islington Labour Party in the good old days of Hodge look efficient, sane, equitable and well-run.

(1) And that's the issue.

If - and it's a big if, but I don't know electoral law - the votes are deemed invalid as a result of the guidance and either have to be re-issued or re-run or struck out that's really not good. It's not good for Remain; if it's close (or worse still changes the result) that also plays into the narrative of a corrupted vote that some people might claim

Likely to shift 0 votes so hard for it to change the result.

Doesn't matter - you can't prove that. It's undermines the perceived fairness of the vote in a very tangible way that people will "get"

(I think it will have a subliminal effect among waverers, but I can't prove that either)

It would be possible to test experimentally I think.

PlatoSaid said:

Alex Wickham
Reinstated Jackie Walker: @JewishChron "want to, for their own political interests, see the rise of anti-Semitism" https://t.co/Mj9UVBO5Az

Includes a dig at Blair as a "war mongerer".

Mr. Borough, surely 'war monger?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Borough, surely 'war monger?

That's what I thought, I was direct quoting from a tweet. Highly educated these far left activists init.

OED actually says warmonger; no hyphen.

Falluja assault begins:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-36410982

Morning all

I haven't watched either broadcast - I've better things to do with my life but as always an interesting review from Roger, for which many thanks.

I'd offer an anecdote on how all my friends, neighbours and family members are voting but as I'm interested in politics, the last thing I want to talk about with people I know and like is politics (PB is different because I don't know most of you).

However, friends have developed this annoying habit of bringing up the EU Referendum unannounced - one did so on Saturday. He's a very nice chap, very intelligent, used to work for oil companies and the like but has decided he will vote REMAIN because he's worried his son and his Portuguese daughter-in-law and their children will be thrown out of Portugal if we vote to LEAVE.

If seemingly intelligent people can have their mental processes so easily short-circuited, it really is a damning indictment of the democratic process (and no, I neither want Cyclefree nor TSE as dictators. I would rather put my head in a bucket of scorpions than endure either of them telling everyone else what to do).

Having explained to him that nobody will get thrown out of anywhere on June 24th, I merely suggested he take a rational approach to the issue and tried to change the subject.

God knows, if I start educating one person, I'll have to educate every one and I cannot be bothered (or similar).

Please do not, as punters or poll watchers, underestimate the propensity of people to think stupid. There are others who think every Pole, Slovak, Bulgarian, Romanian, Czech. etc, etc will mysteriously vanish on June 24th if we vote LEAVE.

Yep, that's what we're dealing with - the future of this country is being decided by a combination of stupidity, ignorance, fear and prejudice.

Mr. Stodge, always worth remembering half the voters have below average intelligence, and even amongst those with higher than average intelligence the vast majority engage only to a bare minimum in politics.

Some people don't even know what the Second Punic War was about.

peter_from_putney said:

If it is ONLY Bristol which has the hovering, photo-shopped hand, then that can only increase one's suspicions as to who was responsible and why this was done.
It would be ridiculous to suggest that this was simply to show a voter how to enter a cross in a box. Were anyone mentally incapable of carrying out such a simple task, with physical assistance if necessary, then they are clearly unfit to vote.

Peter, you clearly haven't met many Bristol councillors. They're all deemed fit to vote and in comparative terms, they are not fit to run a race. Indeed, if they were running the 100 metres they would be beating by a three legged tortoise dragging a full set of anchors from an oil tanker (and I'm not talking about their collective girth, either)!

(Disclaimer - I used to work in an LEA school in Bristol, which colours my judgement somewhat.)

Mr. Eagles, sadly, I'm not sure terrorism (including terrorism in France in particular) counts as a black swan.

There's the potential for both campaigns to screw up a response by being overly political with it.

surbiton said:

ydoethur said:

peter_from_putney said:

If it is ONLY Bristol which has the hovering, photo-shopped hand, then that can only increase one's suspicions as to who was responsible and why this was done.
It would be ridiculous to suggest that this was simply to show a voter how to enter a cross in a box. Were anyone mentally incapable of carrying out such a simple task, with physical assistance if necessary, then they are clearly unfit to vote.

Peter, you clearly haven't met many Bristol councillors. They're all deemed fit to vote and in comparative terms, they are not fit to run a race. Indeed, if they were running the 100 metres they would be beating by a three legged tortoise dragging a full set of anchors from an oil tanker (and I'm not talking about their collective girth, either)!

(Disclaimer - I used to work in an LEA school in Bristol, which colours my judgement somewhat.)

You were a teacher ?

"if they were running the 100 metres they would be beating by a three legged tortoise dragging a full set of anchors from an oil tanker"

*facepalm*

Can't complain either, as I'm always doing it to other people!

In my defence, I have been rather ill and I am still not feeling 100%. However, it's a fair cop and you've got me bang to rights.

PS - I still am a teacher, just not in Bristol.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm not going to do a thread based on this, but this could be the Black Swan of this referendum campaign.

IS fanatics are plotting to use suicide bombers, guns and even drones carrying chemical weapons to attack Three Lions fans in Marseille when England play Russia at Euro 2016.

Police say data found on a laptop used by Salah Abdeslam, mastermind of the Paris and Brussels attacks, outlines a plan to target England supporters as they gather in the city for the June 11 clash.

It is feared followers of Abdeslam are determined to continue with his bomb plot despite his capture.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/7183470/Isis-plan-to-attack-England-footie-fans.html

Do we really believe that details of what would undoubtedly be classified as top secret and probably compartmentalized intelligence data would be available for the plod to brief a Sun journalist?

Or do we believe it's made up bollocks by a low rent journalist who knows he won't be caught out because the security agencies never comment?

PlatoSaid said:

saddened said:

SandyRentool said:

In light of #dodgypostalvoteinstructiongate maybe President Mugabe will offer to send election observers.

Do you genuinely believe that this leaflet will have the slightest influence on what people vote for? Or is it just something to be added to the grievance bank to whine about when leave lose?

The Chief Exec of Electoral Administrators has a problem with it. "Clearly this has not followed good practice"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/29/voters-in-the-eu-referendum-told-to-vote-for-remain-in-postal-vo/

That is an answer to a question I didn't ask. Do you genuinely believe it will influence how a vote is cast?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Stodge, always worth remembering half the voters have below average intelligence, and even amongst those with higher than average intelligence the vast majority engage only to a bare minimum in politics.

Some people don't even know what the Second Punic War was about.

Actually to be pedantic I suspect the majority of voters have above average intelligence ...

I'd suspect the majority of non voters have below average intelligence.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm not going to do a thread based on this, but this could be the Black Swan of this referendum campaign.

IS fanatics are plotting to use suicide bombers, guns and even drones carrying chemical weapons to attack Three Lions fans in Marseille when England play Russia at Euro 2016.

Police say data found on a laptop used by Salah Abdeslam, mastermind of the Paris and Brussels attacks, outlines a plan to target England supporters as they gather in the city for the June 11 clash.

It is feared followers of Abdeslam are determined to continue with his bomb plot despite his capture.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/7183470/Isis-plan-to-attack-England-footie-fans.html

The Sun also tells us that, presumably taking a leaf from Britain's successful defence of the Olympics against the threat from the IS air force, The security services will also deploy shoulder-mounted Mistral surface-to-air missile launchers at strategic buildings and hilltops around Marseille.

If I were a top pb thriller writer, I'd have the baddies nicking the shoulder-mounted missiles, which could prove decisive in the Punic wars.

surbiton said:

MarqueeMark said:

surbiton said:

I have read Philip Walker's piece a couple of threads back. I am not that gloomy about Labour as he is. He is a Brexiter mind.

Nonetheless, it was too good an opportunity not to look at the detailed YouGov data. This is what I make of it:

GE2015
C 545
Lab 477
LD 121
UKIP 191
Others 188

Total 1522

Having excluded the DK / WNV , the current VI gives in percentages:

IN OUT

C 40.41% 59.59%
Lab 74.26% 25.74%
LD 78.72% 21.28%
UKIP 2.45% 97.55%
Others 66.92% 33.08%

Putting this back into the GE15 [ but excluding DK/WNV ]

IN OUT


C 220 325
Lab 354 123
LD 95 26
UKIP 5 186
Others 126 62

Total 800 722

52.5% 47.5%

What struck me were the Labour and Tory splits. Remember many Labour OUTers already identify themselves with UKIP. so Lab IN % will go up. But this also applies to Tories. And despite the defection to UKIP, still 60% of GE2015 Tories identify with Brexit.

By the way, I feel most DK/WNV's will opt for IN. They are still 13.7% of the VI total.

Make no mistake, if RemaIN wins, it was Labour voters wot won it !

I'm going to make a rash prediction - that 2015 Labour voter split is going to end up MUCH closer to 50:50 than polling suggests. Labour Remainers are pushing the case for the EU protecting workers' rights. But their voters are actually more worried that those rights might be being enjoyed by a Pole or a Romanian, rather than by them or their kids...

Those Labour voters have already jumped ship to UKIP.

Not necessarily. South Wales might spring a surprise, for example. I can well imagine a lot of tribally loyal Labour voters will be happy to vote for OUT despite the leadership's recommendation. But they didn't vote for UKIP as recently as four weeks ago (although there was a slight improvement in many seats in the Valleys, there is nowhere it made a difference to the outcome).

Indeed, Phil's analysis suggests there is further for Labour to fall if these traditional supporters stop thinking automatically about being loyal to the party, which should worry you and all other Labour supporters. In Wales, Labour has always been fortunate to face a divided opposition. It is perhaps even more fortunate that the only OUT party in Wales is UKIP, which will be anathema to its (Labour's) voters. If Plaid tacked to out, Labour would be in real trouble.

stodge said:

Morning all

I haven't watched either broadcast - I've better things to do with my life but as always an interesting review from Roger, for which many thanks.

I'd offer an anecdote on how all my friends, neighbours and family members are voting but as I'm interested in politics, the last thing I want to talk about with people I know and like is politics (PB is different because I don't know most of you).

However, friends have developed this annoying habit of bringing up the EU Referendum unannounced - one did so on Saturday. He's a very nice chap, very intelligent, used to work for oil companies and the like but has decided he will vote REMAIN because he's worried his son and his Portuguese daughter-in-law and their children will be thrown out of Portugal if we vote to LEAVE.

If seemingly intelligent people can have their mental processes so easily short-circuited, it really is a damning indictment of the democratic process (and no, I neither want Cyclefree nor TSE as dictators. I would rather put my head in a bucket of scorpions than endure either of them telling everyone else what to do).

Having explained to him that nobody will get thrown out of anywhere on June 24th, I merely suggested he take a rational approach to the issue and tried to change the subject.

God knows, if I start educating one person, I'll have to educate every one and I cannot be bothered (or similar).

Please do not, as punters or poll watchers, underestimate the propensity of people to think stupid. There are others who think every Pole, Slovak, Bulgarian, Romanian, Czech. etc, etc will mysteriously vanish on June 24th if we vote LEAVE.

Yep, that's what we're dealing with - the future of this country is being decided by a combination of stupidity, ignorance, fear and prejudice.

Talking with my Dad yesterday over a BBQ.

He had a bit of a rant about two black men who he saw walking up a motorway. He thought that they had been lorry stowaways so he is voting Leave.

I pointed out that they were illegal arrivals already, and being in or out of tbe EU makes no difference. Then a short rant about Poles in Lidl. I pointed out that some of his oldest school friends are Poles who are now perfectly British (as is his doctor). After this anti-european tirade he headed off to the airport Euros in hand for a short break on the Adriatic.

Part of being a democracy means that the ill informed have the same say as the best informed. It works both ways.

Mr. Wanderer, I remember that too. The timing of the bombing was right ahead of the election, and it seemed the governing party (parties?) were seen to play politics with it.

Mr. Thompson, perhaps. Worth remembering a lot of people just vote the same way, often for the same parties as their parents/grandparents.

Mr. L, who do you consider the 'baddies' in the Second Punic War? Nero?

Wanderer said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, sadly, I'm not sure terrorism (including terrorism in France in particular) counts as a black swan.

There's the potential for both campaigns to screw up a response by being overly political with it.

That's very true. According to the UK media, at least, it was the Spanish government's reaction to 3/11, instantly and wrongly blaming it on ETA, that had more bearing on the subsequent election than the attack itself. (I don't know if there's any truth in that though.)

I think that anyone who was seen to be trying to crudely capitalise on an attack would be in trouble. The smart response from both sides would be the solemn statesmanlike one.

Yep, the Spanish government - which had very unpopularly supported the invasion of Iraq - sought immediately to blame ETA for the attack and dismissed any suggestion it might have been committed by Al Qaeda or a similar organisation. That did not go down well, to say the least.

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm not going to do a thread based on this, but this could be the Black Swan of this referendum campaign.

IS fanatics are plotting to use suicide bombers, guns and even drones carrying chemical weapons to attack Three Lions fans in Marseille when England play Russia at Euro 2016.

Police say data found on a laptop used by Salah Abdeslam, mastermind of the Paris and Brussels attacks, outlines a plan to target England supporters as they gather in the city for the June 11 clash.

It is feared followers of Abdeslam are determined to continue with his bomb plot despite his capture.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/7183470/Isis-plan-to-attack-England-footie-fans.html

The Sun also tells us that, presumably taking a leaf from Britain's successful defence of the Olympics against the threat from the IS air force, The security services will also deploy shoulder-mounted Mistral surface-to-air missile launchers at strategic buildings and hilltops around Marseille.

If I were a top pb thriller writer, I'd have the baddies nicking the shoulder-mounted missiles, which could prove decisive in the Punic wars.

Don't tell anybody else, because it comes from a secret source, there will be specialist police firearms officers deployed.

HaroldO said:

I haven't really been following the whole carnival of campaign until this weekend and the personal attacks on Cameron, which seem to be an attempt to try and drag down the biggest beast that opposes them and to strike out for the future leadership campaign.
Problem is all it does is alienate people like me who are open to voting Tory (and have in the past) but are adverse to mendacious naval gazing, such as the events of this weekend. I
I would rather vote Lib Dem than see a Tory government run by the rights equivalent of Jeremy Corbyn. Ugh.

Well vote for them then, they're clearly your natural home.

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

Morning. Two dire adverts, will either of them change a single vote?

Looks like someone in Bristol is going to be getting a P45 today, they're surely going to have to reissue the whole postal vote? Also amazed that the guidance doesn't come from the Electoral Commission in a standard format.

Sandpit, nobody in Bristol City Council would be sacked for a little thing like this. In fact, it is quite hard to think what you can get sacked for when working for Bristol City Council. Clive Lewis' famous suggestion wouldn't be considered a serious matter, for example.

Is it really that bad there? Oh for the days of Eric Pickles running DCLG, he would have sent a hit squad to sort the place out.

Seriously, this sort of stuff needs stamping on, I imagine Guido will be sending FoI requests this morning for any discussions that happened about the design of the guidance note. If it turns out that someone thought they were being clever...

dr_spyn said:

Charles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

or false?

Apparently it's genuine but only in Bristol.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/29/voters-in-the-eu-referendum-told-to-vote-for-remain-in-postal-vo/

If true, that's extraordinary.

I'm astounded that the returning officer thought it was a good idea. Presumably there would be the possibility to strike down the whole of the Bristol postal vote?

Chief Returning Officer is also the Chief Executive, a Poo Bah figure named Nicola Yates.

Who seems to like spending other people's money on EU projects

"Why on earth is Bristol City Council being so stubborn about revealing how it’s spent over £8mllion on Bristol’s year as European Green Capital? Questions from elected councillors and other campaigners have all been rebuffed. The council is trying to hide behind Bristol 2015 Limited, the company it set up to manage the year’s events. They claim it is exempt from freedom of information requests. This is despite the fact that virtually all of the budget it has to spend comes from the taxpayer – £7million from central government and £1million from Bristol council tax payers."

saddened said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm not going to do a thread based on this, but this could be the Black Swan of this referendum campaign.

IS fanatics are plotting to use suicide bombers, guns and even drones carrying chemical weapons to attack Three Lions fans in Marseille when England play Russia at Euro 2016.

Police say data found on a laptop used by Salah Abdeslam, mastermind of the Paris and Brussels attacks, outlines a plan to target England supporters as they gather in the city for the June 11 clash.

It is feared followers of Abdeslam are determined to continue with his bomb plot despite his capture.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/7183470/Isis-plan-to-attack-England-footie-fans.html

Do we really believe that details of what would undoubtedly be classified as top secret and probably compartmentalized intelligence data would be available for the plod to brief a Sun journalist?

Or do we believe it's made up bollocks by a low rent journalist who knows he won't be caught out because the security agencies never comment?

Nothing new under the sun. Indeed in 1977 this film was about terrorists attacking a sporting event, with a bomb in an aircraft:

https://youtu.be/xknWZIAzBCc

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, np. Although it didn't come off, the reasoning behind your bet was sound, and I'll have to keep the VSC in mind for Monaco next year (and maybe Singapore this).

Yes, the thinking behind it was sound. Only one real SC last year with Max and then the rain this year. They've got a brilliant setup there with off track cranes and marshals, often had the ropes round stranded cars ready to lift them before the driver got out!

Put the same bet on the list for next year at Monaco. Not sure about Singapore though, will watch last year's race again this week and let you know my thoughts.

MarqueeMark said:

surbiton said:

I have read Philip Walker's piece a couple of threads back. I am not that gloomy about Labour as he is. He is a Brexiter mind.

Nonetheless, it was too good an opportunity not to look at the detailed YouGov data. This is what I make of it:

GE2015
C 545
Lab 477
LD 121
UKIP 191
Others 188

Total 1522

Having excluded the DK / WNV , the current VI gives in percentages:

IN OUT

C 40.41% 59.59%
Lab 74.26% 25.74%
LD 78.72% 21.28%
UKIP 2.45% 97.55%
Others 66.92% 33.08%

Putting this back into the GE15 [ but excluding DK/WNV ]

IN OUT


C 220 325
Lab 354 123
LD 95 26
UKIP 5 186
Others 126 62

Total 800 722

52.5% 47.5%

What struck me were the Labour and Tory splits. Remember many Labour OUTers already identify themselves with UKIP. so Lab IN % will go up. But this also applies to Tories. And despite the defection to UKIP, still 60% of GE2015 Tories identify with Brexit.

By the way, I feel most DK/WNV's will opt for IN. They are still 13.7% of the VI total.

Make no mistake, if RemaIN wins, it was Labour voters wot won it !

I'm going to make a rash prediction - that 2015 Labour voter split is going to end up MUCH closer to 50:50 than polling suggests. Labour Remainers are pushing the case for the EU protecting workers' rights. But their voters are actually more worried that those rights might be being enjoyed by a Pole or a Romanian, rather than by them or their kids...

No, a majority of 2015 Labour voters voting in the referendum will be AB luvvies, public sector workers and ethnic minorities who will vote Remain, only a minority will be working class and many of those most concerned about immigration will already be voting UKIP. Of course the more Tories vote for Remain the less important Labour voters votes are too

stodge said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Talking with my Dad yesterday over a BBQ.

He had a bit of a rant about two black men who he saw walking up a motorway. He thought that they had been lorry stowaways so he is voting Leave.

I pointed out that they were illegal arrivals already, and being in or out of tbe EU makes no difference. Then a short rant about Poles in Lidl. I pointed out that some of his oldest school friends are Poles who are now perfectly British (as is his doctor). After this anti-european tirade he headed off to the airport Euros in hand for a short break on the Adriatic.

Part of being a democracy means that the ill informed have the same say as the best informed. It works both ways.

Yes and we had two Lithuanians recently who preferred sleeping rough under the Canning Town flyover to a free ticket back home.

As we see on here, the journey from sanity to inanity doesn't mean the loss of basic typing skills regrettably and a cheap jibe in lieu of an argument requires much less cerebral activity which again will be a welcome relief to some.

It's strange polling organisations rarely ask people WHY they vote or think the way they do. I realise that would be time consuming and difficult to quantify but would be informative.

I think immigration is an incredibly complex, multi-faceted issue for which there is or are no easy answers (if there were, we'd be doing it) but, a bit like crime, it's all about perceptions which feed the story. The statistics aren't believed because they don't fit perceptions.

Very good post. These issues are way more complicated than the way they are generally portrayed in the media.

Luckyguy1983 said:

HaroldO said:

I haven't really been following the whole carnival of campaign until this weekend and the personal attacks on Cameron, which seem to be an attempt to try and drag down the biggest beast that opposes them and to strike out for the future leadership campaign.
Problem is all it does is alienate people like me who are open to voting Tory (and have in the past) but are adverse to mendacious naval gazing, such as the events of this weekend. I
I would rather vote Lib Dem than see a Tory government run by the rights equivalent of Jeremy Corbyn. Ugh.

Well vote for them then, they're clearly your natural home.

That's not necessarily true is it. The point is that that a lot of moderate Tory leaning voters and floating voters are alienated by the right wing of the party in the same way that the left of Labour is unelectable. The personal attacks on Cameron aren't going to improve that situation, particularly given the loons making them.

SouthamObserver said:

Ha, ha ...

https://twitter.com/chrisdeerin/status/737218901487038464

Halt Ze German Advance

foxinsoxuk said:

saddened said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm not going to do a thread based on this, but this could be the Black Swan of this referendum campaign.

IS fanatics are plotting to use suicide bombers, guns and even drones carrying chemical weapons to attack Three Lions fans in Marseille when England play Russia at Euro 2016.

Police say data found on a laptop used by Salah Abdeslam, mastermind of the Paris and Brussels attacks, outlines a plan to target England supporters as they gather in the city for the June 11 clash.

It is feared followers of Abdeslam are determined to continue with his bomb plot despite his capture.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/7183470/Isis-plan-to-attack-England-footie-fans.html

Do we really believe that details of what would undoubtedly be classified as top secret and probably compartmentalized intelligence data would be available for the plod to brief a Sun journalist?

Or do we believe it's made up bollocks by a low rent journalist who knows he won't be caught out because the security agencies never comment?

Nothing new under the sun. Indeed in 1977 this film was about terrorists attacking a sporting event, with a bomb in an aircraft:

https://youtu.be/xknWZIAzBCc

Based on Thomas Harris's little-read first novel.
I'll bet his publisher has 24/7 hotline waiting for him to confirm that he has another book ready.

PlatoSaid said:

Christopher Hope
Journalists not invited (we asked to go). It's only activists there. https://t.co/yGGQxrH5NI

Surely it's in the PR 101 that if you shut journalists out of an event, they will just run with the story that you shut them out?

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

Sandpit, nobody in Bristol City Council would be sacked for a little thing like this. In fact, it is quite hard to think what you can get sacked for when working for Bristol City Council. Clive Lewis' famous suggestion wouldn't be considered a serious matter, for example.

Not that many are still working for Bristol City Council given the current economic climate

Hyufd, it was our view as very stressed teachers in a struggling, understaffed school falling apart because of a dud PFI contract, that nobody ever actually worked at Bristol City Council - they were merely employed by it!

Sandpit, it was pretty bad. To give you some idea of how corrupt it was, we had a school inspection regime from the LEA that in my experience of them employed only teachers who had been sacked for incompetence (when you consider how hard it is to sack a teacher for incompetence, that is saying quite something). On one monitoring visit, within an hour the most senior inspector had made a girl break down in tears by bullying her for failing to hold a door open while the inspectors walked the length of a corridor to get to it. These inspectors only ever ran the school down in their reports, because their one goal was to get it placed into special measures and so taken off their hands. Oddly, the person most resistant to that at the school was the Head (the rest of us couldn't wait to get rid of the bar stewards). OFSTED kept refusing to do it, however, on the basis that things were bad, but not *that* bad, and they couldn't be bothered to pay for it or sort the mess out themselves policy dictated only schools in Special Measures should be put into forced academisation.

I left the LEA system as a result. I have worked since only in academies, and I would never go back. Of the five history teachers there at the time, one has retired, two have followed my example, and one is having a baby every year and is therefore on constant maternity leave. It was a really good department too.

Now remember that this was happening all over the city - and you have some idea of why 20% of all Bristol's children are privately educated, and the Free School in Westbury, plus Bristol Cathedral School and St Mary Redcliffe and Temple, the Church of England schools, one an academy and one voluntary-aided and therefore both de facto removed from LEA control, are so heavily oversubscribed.

Ouch, that's quite shocking. Also amazed that with so many middle classes in the city there haven't been a bunch of independent councillors elected. 20% in private education is a huge number.

rottenborough said:

So this is a from the front line argument for academies across the whole sector?

Well - yes and no. In principle, I am in favour of getting rid of LEAs. However, I was not in favour of the government's latest raft of proposals. Moreover, in Bristol academisation's impact has been decidedly mixed, because putting schools into academy chains merely takes them out of the control of the useless LEA and puts them under the control of what is often the equally useless academy chain. E-ACT spring to mind - their running of a school in the Forest of Dean may charitably be described as an unmitigated fiasco, and I understand it wasn't even their worst failure.

My personal view is that school management should be as follows:

1) All schools should be independent in terms of governance, managed by a board of governors which is elected annually by the parents and which should always have a minimum of 40% of parent governors on it as sort of non-executive directors.

2) They should be funded according to the number of students they attract.

3) They should be inspected periodically by other practising teachers from other parts of the country, whose reports should be published unaltered on the school's website.

4) The management of the school under the governors should be in the hands of the SLT.

5) League tables, including the ghastly Progress 8, should be got rid of as they turn schools into little more than exam factories. Parents can, and should, be judging the school themselves (bearing in mind a school that is right for one child may not be suitable for another).

Now, with the early academies programme under Gove and to a lesser extent Wilshaw, I was optimistic that 1-4 was happening. That would have been a fabulous change for the better, and might have revolutionised education in this country. Unfortunately, these academy chains muscled in and started taking over, and league tables became more important not less. The result was that far from making management more local and immediate to the parents, it is becoming more remote and less immediate. The 2020 plan would have put the coping stone on that and that is why I am very glad it has been abandoned.

As an aside that is 50% the problem with Gove - he often has excellent ideas (new A-levels and GCSEs, academies, a greater focus on literacy and numeracy, clipping the wings of LEAs) - but his implementation varies from the rushed to the inept, and as a result the impact of his policies veers from the negligible to the disastrous. It is a very great shame, and an entirely avoidable one.

I hope you find that answer useful/interesting. But I fear I'm hijacking this thread. To get away from that, I will go to Ludlow for the day and then I'm back to Gloucester for a few days. Have a good week, everyone!

Scott_P said:

He is an American with weird hair, trying to propel himself to the highest office in the land.

And so is Donald Trump...

Is that the latest "in" joke in your primary school

Sandpit said:

Morning. Two dire adverts, will either of them change a single vote?

Looks like someone in Bristol is going to be getting a P45 today, they're surely going to have to reissue the whole postal vote? Also amazed that the guidance doesn't come from the Electoral Commission in a standard format.

I imagine it does, but it would seem that the powers that be in Bristol have taken it upon themselves to alter it. This has clearly been done to influence the good burghers of Bristol to vote for REMAIN ..... there is simply no other credible explanation.
Those responsible should be rooted out and sacked.

Ireland for In:

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/may/29/irish-leader-says-border-controls-may-return-if-brexit-vote-prevails

Compare and contrast with the disgusting Jackie Walker:

http://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/suspended-mp-naz-shah-tells-synagogue-i-was-ignorant-about-judaism/

Guess which one Corbyn Labour has warmly welcomed back.

The relaunch of BBC Two's Top Gear was seen by an average of 4.4 million viewers, overnight figures show.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-36411819

So well down on the terrible last Clarkson series. Be interesting to see how many they lose by the end of the series.