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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A tale of two broadcasts. Roger’s critique of the opening two broadcasts

[Political] ‘advertising isn’t about truth fairness or rationality, but about mobilising deeper and more primitive layers of the human mind.’ – Brian Eno.

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MikeK

Am I first? Tee hee

CarlottaVance

Second.....like LEAVE.......

dugarbandier

hm. vote leave or it's curtains for granny vs. vote remain to ensure future Sam will be able to source an au pair without difficulty.

tbh Sam with his enormous garden and clearly wealthy parents will likely be fine in any case.

obv. vote leave ad is complete bull and the majority of the vote leave leadership don't give two shits about the nhs (i don't think it's necessarily the best thing ever either, mind).

whichever campaign can convice me that Mumford and sons type background music will be eliminated in their future vision of europe can probably have my vote..

MikeK

Funnily enough I've seen the blond boy Sam, twice on BBC; but that of the Leave campaign, nary a sign.

MonikerDiCanio

Nice work Roger.
Charming womanly voice of the Leave narrator contrasts with the silly millennial teen simper of Remain.

CarlottaVance

So 'Hope & sunny Future' LEAVE does PROJECT FEAR while 'doom and gloom' REMAIN does OPTIMISM

I expect LEAVERs to complain bitterly about this mendacious deceitful rubbish change of tack.....

Mind you, I am surprised at Saatchi producing a Persil ad, rather than an Ariel one for REMAIN, while LEAVE goes all Ariel.......

PClipp

dugarbandier said:

hm. vote leave or it's curtains for granny vs. vote remain to ensure future Sam will be able to source an au pair without difficulty.
tbh Sam with his enormous garden and clearly wealthy parents will likely be fine in any case.

Come, come, Mr Dugarbaandier. We have a Conservative Government. Now everybody has an enormous garden and fairly wealthy parents.

And if Cameron and Osborne continue in office, a blonde au pair as well.

SouthamObserver

Free money alert ...

https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/736994994268086273

Pong

SouthamObserver said:

Free money alert ...

https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/736994994268086273

Is there a way to arb it?

Roger

CarlottaVance said:

So 'Hope & sunny Future' LEAVE does PROJECT FEAR while 'doom and gloom' REMAIN does OPTIMISM

I expect LEAVERs to complain bitterly about this mendacious deceitful rubbish change of tack.....

Mind you, I am surprised at Saatchi producing a Persil ad, rather than an Ariel one for REMAIN, while LEAVE goes all Ariel.......

That's up quickly. I'm not sure if Saatchis were involved. I'd be surprised if a company with their experience would throw three minutes of free airtime down the tiolet like this. How many messages is it possible to squeeze into one slot without it turning into blancmange?

I think the answer's one!

(I don't know whether you were involved in Persil/Ariel but if so we must compare notes one day)

dugarbandier

in the remain one, they said EU gives us 350 GBP per year, while leaving would cost us 4,300. what's that all about then?

RobD

MikeK said:

Am I first? Tee hee

This buffoon was still refreshing the last thread!

DavidL

Another good piece Roger but both those adverts are terrible. Needless to say on PB is the only place I have seen them too.

The Leave advert is ridiculous but I do think you are right to highlight the fact it has a consistent, if mendacious, theme throughout whilst the Remain advert is really all over the place. Both are hitting new levels of dishonesty and neither engage with any of the substantive issues which are obviously far too complicated for us to worry our little heads about.

I didn't think this debate could get more depressing but I was wrong.

Roger

dugarbandier said:

in the remain one, they said EU gives us 350 GBP per year, while leaving would cost us 4,300. what's that all about then?

You've hit the nail on the head. When you throw so many figures around to an audience that's at best only half watching you end up with confused viewers. If they had a long run it might stand a chance but most people will only see these once or twice. Despite the ludicrous dishonesty of the Vote Leave one at least there was only one message.

surbiton

I am getting bored with this silly nonsense, 58 - 42 for RemaIN.

dr_spyn

Yesterday I noticed the hidden message in the postal vote instructions on how to fill in your ballot paper. The example shows a cross in the box by the Remain option.

Are any international observers are impressed, but I am surprised that The Electoral Commission deemed the design to be impartial.

Will watch the ads later, but thanks for the insight @Roger.

SouthamObserver

DavidL said:

Another good piece Roger but both those adverts are terrible. Needless to say on PB is the only place I have seen them too.

The Leave advert is ridiculous but I do think you are right to highlight the fact it has a consistent, if mendacious, theme throughout whilst the Remain advert is really all over the place. Both are hitting new levels of dishonesty and neither engage with any of the substantive issues which are obviously far too complicated for us to worry our little heads about.

I didn't think this debate could get more depressing but I was wrong.

The most depressing thing is that whatever the result is on 23rd June things are only going to get worse. If Remain wins, the Tories will continue to tear themselves apart as Labour, irrelevant and unelectable, gets down to its own Chilcott-inspired carnage. If Leave wins, we have all of the above, plus the Brexit negotiations and the prospect of no agreement because nothing will get through the Commons. This really is a huge clusterf***

dugarbandier

Roger said:

dugarbandier said:

in the remain one, they said EU gives us 350 GBP per year, while leaving would cost us 4,300. what's that all about then?

You've hit the nail on the head. When you throw so many figures around to an audience that's at best only half watching you end up with confused viewers. If they had a long run it might stand a chance but most people will only see these once or twice. Despite the ludicrous dishonesty of the Vote Leave one at least there was only one message.

you caught me. I was watching at work in a clandestine manner, in my defence.

RobD

dr_spyn said:

Yesterday I noticed the hidden message in the postal vote instructions on how to fill in your ballot paper. The example shows a cross in the box by the Remain option.

Are any international observers are impressed, but I am surprised that The Electoral Commission deemed the design to be impartial.

Will watch the ads later, but thanks for the insight @Roger.

Didn't see that on my ballot paper instructions. Perhaps it is a council by council thing (although I would have thought the design was standardised)

surbiton

Is Gove and Johnson now using Attlee and Bevan ? Shame on them !

The last RemaIN broadcast should have a snippet each from Major, Blair, Brown and Cameron. All Prime Ministers current or ex alive. All extolling the same theme.

Please not the current and ex-Chancellors [ specially the current one ]. That will make the undecided Labour vote go only one way.

DavidL

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

Another good piece Roger but both those adverts are terrible. Needless to say on PB is the only place I have seen them too.

The Leave advert is ridiculous but I do think you are right to highlight the fact it has a consistent, if mendacious, theme throughout whilst the Remain advert is really all over the place. Both are hitting new levels of dishonesty and neither engage with any of the substantive issues which are obviously far too complicated for us to worry our little heads about.

I didn't think this debate could get more depressing but I was wrong.

The most depressing thing is that whatever the result is on 23rd June things are only going to get worse. If Remain wins, the Tories will continue to tear themselves apart as Labour, irrelevant and unelectable, gets down to its own Chilcott-inspired carnage. If Leave wins, we have all of the above, plus the Brexit negotiations and the prospect of no agreement because nothing will get through the Commons. This really is a huge clusterf***

I agree. We will no longer have a majority government in either scenario and of course Labour have opted out of providing an alternative. We are heading into choppy waters with no one at the wheel. Its not good.

surbiton

In the event of Leave winning or a close RemaIN win, what are the chances of the Boundary seats review going through ?

SouthamObserver

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

Another good piece Roger but both those adverts are terrible. Needless to say on PB is the only place I have seen them too.

The Leave advert is ridiculous but I do think you are right to highlight the fact it has a consistent, if mendacious, theme throughout whilst the Remain advert is really all over the place. Both are hitting new levels of dishonesty and neither engage with any of the substantive issues which are obviously far too complicated for us to worry our little heads about.

I didn't think this debate could get more depressing but I was wrong.

The most depressing thing is that whatever the result is on 23rd June things are only going to get worse. If Remain wins, the Tories will continue to tear themselves apart as Labour, irrelevant and unelectable, gets down to its own Chilcott-inspired carnage. If Leave wins, we have all of the above, plus the Brexit negotiations and the prospect of no agreement because nothing will get through the Commons. This really is a huge clusterf***

I agree. We will no longer have a majority government in either scenario and of course Labour have opted out of providing an alternative. We are heading into choppy waters with no one at the wheel. Its not good.

And all that's before the market reaction to a Brexit vote. If it's negative things could get very messy indeed.

RobD

surbiton said:

In the event of Leave winning or a close RemaIN win, what are the chances of the Boundary seats review going through ?

Just how out of date would the constituencies be if it didn't?

dugarbandier

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

Another good piece Roger but both those adverts are terrible. Needless to say on PB is the only place I have seen them too.

The Leave advert is ridiculous but I do think you are right to highlight the fact it has a consistent, if mendacious, theme throughout whilst the Remain advert is really all over the place. Both are hitting new levels of dishonesty and neither engage with any of the substantive issues which are obviously far too complicated for us to worry our little heads about.

I didn't think this debate could get more depressing but I was wrong.

The most depressing thing is that whatever the result is on 23rd June things are only going to get worse. If Remain wins, the Tories will continue to tear themselves apart as Labour, irrelevant and unelectable, gets down to its own Chilcott-inspired carnage. If Leave wins, we have all of the above, plus the Brexit negotiations and the prospect of no agreement because nothing will get through the Commons. This really is a huge clusterf***

I agree. We will no longer have a majority government in either scenario and of course Labour have opted out of providing an alternative. We are heading into choppy waters with no one at the wheel. Its not good.

the libdems may be embarking a sealed train from the orkney isles as we speak

DavidL

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

Another good piece Roger but both those adverts are terrible. Needless to say on PB is the only place I have seen them too.

The Leave advert is ridiculous but I do think you are right to highlight the fact it has a consistent, if mendacious, theme throughout whilst the Remain advert is really all over the place. Both are hitting new levels of dishonesty and neither engage with any of the substantive issues which are obviously far too complicated for us to worry our little heads about.

I didn't think this debate could get more depressing but I was wrong.

The most depressing thing is that whatever the result is on 23rd June things are only going to get worse. If Remain wins, the Tories will continue to tear themselves apart as Labour, irrelevant and unelectable, gets down to its own Chilcott-inspired carnage. If Leave wins, we have all of the above, plus the Brexit negotiations and the prospect of no agreement because nothing will get through the Commons. This really is a huge clusterf***

I agree. We will no longer have a majority government in either scenario and of course Labour have opted out of providing an alternative. We are heading into choppy waters with no one at the wheel. Its not good.

And all that's before the market reaction to a Brexit vote. If it's negative things could get very messy indeed.

I don't believe that the market will get too excited about a Brexit vote that is going to have effect in a minimum of 2 years and probably longer. The absence of any governing majority on the other hand just might. Some continental countries have managed without a government for a long time but we are not really set up that way with budgets every 6 months and other nonsense.

SouthamObserver

surbiton said:

In the event of Leave winning or a close RemaIN win, what are the chances of the Boundary seats review going through ?

The odds of the next GE being fought on current constituency boundaries are shortening all the time. As things stand, it's hard to see how we can go another two years - let alone four - without a new vote.

OldKingCole

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

Another good piece Roger but both those adverts are terrible. Needless to say on PB is the only place I have seen them too.

The Leave advert is ridiculous but I do think you are right to highlight the fact it has a consistent, if mendacious, theme throughout whilst the Remain advert is really all over the place. Both are hitting new levels of dishonesty and neither engage with any of the substantive issues which are obviously far too complicated for us to worry our little heads about.

I didn't think this debate could get more depressing but I was wrong.

The most depressing thing is that whatever the result is on 23rd June things are only going to get worse. If Remain wins, the Tories will continue to tear themselves apart as Labour, irrelevant and unelectable, gets down to its own Chilcott-inspired carnage. If Leave wins, we have all of the above, plus the Brexit negotiations and the prospect of no agreement because nothing will get through the Commons. This really is a huge clusterf***

I agree. We will no longer have a majority government in either scenario and of course Labour have opted out of providing an alternative. We are heading into choppy waters with no one at the wheel. Its not good.

And all that's before the market reaction to a Brexit vote. If it's negative things could get very messy indeed.

You’ve ommitted to make reference to the 30 or so forthcoming court cases over election expenses.

RobD

OldKingCole said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

Another good piece Roger but both those adverts are terrible. Needless to say on PB is the only place I have seen them too.

The Leave advert is ridiculous but I do think you are right to highlight the fact it has a consistent, if mendacious, theme throughout whilst the Remain advert is really all over the place. Both are hitting new levels of dishonesty and neither engage with any of the substantive issues which are obviously far too complicated for us to worry our little heads about.

I didn't think this debate could get more depressing but I was wrong.

The most depressing thing is that whatever the result is on 23rd June things are only going to get worse. If Remain wins, the Tories will continue to tear themselves apart as Labour, irrelevant and unelectable, gets down to its own Chilcott-inspired carnage. If Leave wins, we have all of the above, plus the Brexit negotiations and the prospect of no agreement because nothing will get through the Commons. This really is a huge clusterf***

I agree. We will no longer have a majority government in either scenario and of course Labour have opted out of providing an alternative. We are heading into choppy waters with no one at the wheel. Its not good.

And all that's before the market reaction to a Brexit vote. If it's negative things could get very messy indeed.

You’ve ommitted to make reference to the 30 or so forthcoming court cases over election expenses.

The police are pressing charges?

DavidL

dugarbandier said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

Another good piece Roger but both those adverts are terrible. Needless to say on PB is the only place I have seen them too.

The Leave advert is ridiculous but I do think you are right to highlight the fact it has a consistent, if mendacious, theme throughout whilst the Remain advert is really all over the place. Both are hitting new levels of dishonesty and neither engage with any of the substantive issues which are obviously far too complicated for us to worry our little heads about.

I didn't think this debate could get more depressing but I was wrong.

The most depressing thing is that whatever the result is on 23rd June things are only going to get worse. If Remain wins, the Tories will continue to tear themselves apart as Labour, irrelevant and unelectable, gets down to its own Chilcott-inspired carnage. If Leave wins, we have all of the above, plus the Brexit negotiations and the prospect of no agreement because nothing will get through the Commons. This really is a huge clusterf***

I agree. We will no longer have a majority government in either scenario and of course Labour have opted out of providing an alternative. We are heading into choppy waters with no one at the wheel. Its not good.

the libdems may be embarking a sealed train from the orkney isles as we speak

They are just too small to be relevant now. If there were 20-30 Lib Dem MPs then Cameron might have been tempted to restart the Coalition to allow him to face down the awkward squad but then, if there were 20-30 Lib Dem MPs he wouldn't have had a majority in the first place.

dr_spyn

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

Yesterday I noticed the hidden message in the postal vote instructions on how to fill in your ballot paper. The example shows a cross in the box by the Remain option.

Are any international observers are impressed, but I am surprised that The Electoral Commission deemed the design to be impartial.

Will watch the ads later, but thanks for the insight @Roger.

Didn't see that on my ballot paper instructions. Perhaps it is a council by council thing (although I would have thought the design was standardised)

False memory, I've just had another look, the hand with the pencil is hovering over the Remain option, the cross hasn't been drawn in.

The image is leading, or could be construed as leading and I am surprised that a diagram is needed.

RobD

dr_spyn said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

Yesterday I noticed the hidden message in the postal vote instructions on how to fill in your ballot paper. The example shows a cross in the box by the Remain option.

Are any international observers are impressed, but I am surprised that The Electoral Commission deemed the design to be impartial.

Will watch the ads later, but thanks for the insight @Roger.

Didn't see that on my ballot paper instructions. Perhaps it is a council by council thing (although I would have thought the design was standardised)

False memory, I've just had another look, the hand with the pencil is hovering over the Remain option, the cross hasn't been drawn in.

The image is leading, or could be construed as leading and I am surprised that a diagram is needed.

This is what it looked like for me:

http://i.imgur.com/7zmlgd2.jpg?1

SouthamObserver

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

Another good piece Roger but both those adverts are terrible. Needless to say on PB is the only place I have seen them too.

The Leave advert is ridiculous but I do think you are right to highlight the fact it has a consistent, if mendacious, theme throughout whilst the Remain advert is really all over the place. Both are hitting new levels of dishonesty and neither engage with any of the substantive issues which are obviously far too complicated for us to worry our little heads about.

I didn't think this debate could get more depressing but I was wrong.

The most depressing thing is that whatever the result is on 23rd June things are only going to get worse. If Remain wins, the Tories will continue to tear themselves apart as Labour, irrelevant and unelectable, gets down to its own Chilcott-inspired carnage. If Leave wins, we have all of the above, plus the Brexit negotiations and the prospect of no agreement because nothing will get through the Commons. This really is a huge clusterf***

I agree. We will no longer have a majority government in either scenario and of course Labour have opted out of providing an alternative. We are heading into choppy waters with no one at the wheel. Its not good.

And all that's before the market reaction to a Brexit vote. If it's negative things could get very messy indeed.

I don't believe that the market will get too excited about a Brexit vote that is going to have effect in a minimum of 2 years and probably longer. The absence of any governing majority on the other hand just might. Some continental countries have managed without a government for a long time but we are not really set up that way with budgets every 6 months and other nonsense.

Hmm. The lack of a coherent government will help to drive reaction to the vote. And it's not just UK markets we need to worry about. Recent years have shown there is little in the way of logic to these things. From where I sit, global confidence looks very fragile. Hopefully you're right.

logical_song

SouthamObserver said:

Free money alert ...

https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/736994994268086273

...but Ladbrokes don't need the free money.

Philip_Thompson

SouthamObserver said:

surbiton said:

In the event of Leave winning or a close RemaIN win, what are the chances of the Boundary seats review going through ?

The odds of the next GE being fought on current constituency boundaries are shortening all the time. As things stand, it's hard to see how we can go another two years - let alone four - without a new vote.

Simple inertia will let us go another two years.

To go ahead for two or even four more years just requires nothing happens to force a vote. No amendments to the Fixed Term Parliament Act, no No Confidence votes and no vote for an early election in the Commons.

Even if it's an uncomfortable lame duck four years time simply needs to pass.

dr_spyn

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

Yesterday I noticed the hidden message in the postal vote instructions on how to fill in your ballot paper. The example shows a cross in the box by the Remain option.

Are any international observers are impressed, but I am surprised that The Electoral Commission deemed the design to be impartial.

Will watch the ads later, but thanks for the insight @Roger.

Didn't see that on my ballot paper instructions. Perhaps it is a council by council thing (although I would have thought the design was standardised)

False memory, I've just had another look, the hand with the pencil is hovering over the Remain option, the cross hasn't been drawn in.

The image is leading, or could be construed as leading and I am surprised that a diagram is needed.

This is what it looked like for me:

http://i.imgur.com/7zmlgd2.jpg?1

That is very different from the instructions I received.

RobD

dr_spyn said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

Yesterday I noticed the hidden message in the postal vote instructions on how to fill in your ballot paper. The example shows a cross in the box by the Remain option.

Are any international observers are impressed, but I am surprised that The Electoral Commission deemed the design to be impartial.

Will watch the ads later, but thanks for the insight @Roger.

Didn't see that on my ballot paper instructions. Perhaps it is a council by council thing (although I would have thought the design was standardised)

False memory, I've just had another look, the hand with the pencil is hovering over the Remain option, the cross hasn't been drawn in.

The image is leading, or could be construed as leading and I am surprised that a diagram is needed.

This is what it looked like for me:

http://i.imgur.com/7zmlgd2.jpg?1

That is very different from the instructions I received.

Pretty scandalous for them to have the hand over one of the options.

Charles

surbiton said:

Is Gove and Johnson now using Attlee and Bevan ? Shame on them !

The last RemaIN broadcast should have a snippet each from Major, Blair, Brown and Cameron. All Prime Ministers current or ex alive. All extolling the same theme.

Please not the current and ex-Chancellors [ specially the current one ]. That will make the undecided Labour vote go only one way.

Interesting, though, that once people leave the political fray or leadership of big organisations - and are free to say what they believe without personal interest* - they switch to Leave

Lawson, Lamont, Dearlove, Geoghegan, etc

(* I'm excluding Major as his personal relationship with Cameron means he still has a personal interest)

Innocent_Abroad

Time, methinks, to get rid of "representative democracy" and install a Strong Man, preferably one with a taste for blood - or even blood, blood and more blood.

Any Peebie spring to mind?

RobD

Innocent_Abroad said:

Time, methinks, to get rid of "representative democracy" and install a Strong Man, preferably one with a taste for blood - or even blood, blood and more blood.

Any Peebie spring to mind?

A dictator? Directly elected, perhaps?

Charles

dr_spyn said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

Yesterday I noticed the hidden message in the postal vote instructions on how to fill in your ballot paper. The example shows a cross in the box by the Remain option.

Are any international observers are impressed, but I am surprised that The Electoral Commission deemed the design to be impartial.

Will watch the ads later, but thanks for the insight @Roger.

Didn't see that on my ballot paper instructions. Perhaps it is a council by council thing (although I would have thought the design was standardised)

False memory, I've just had another look, the hand with the pencil is hovering over the Remain option, the cross hasn't been drawn in.

The image is leading, or could be construed as leading and I am surprised that a diagram is needed.

are you sure? There was a spoof going around twitter like that. My vote looked as normal as very.

logical_song

RobD said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Time, methinks, to get rid of "representative democracy" and install a Strong Man, preferably one with a taste for blood - or even blood, blood and more blood.

Any Peebie spring to mind?

A dictator? Directly elected, perhaps?

By AV.

dugarbandier

Innocent_Abroad said:

Time, methinks, to get rid of "representative democracy" and install a Strong Man, preferably one with a taste for blood - or even blood, blood and more blood.

Any Peebie spring to mind?

are you putting yourself forward for the role IA?

RobD

logical_song said:

RobD said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Time, methinks, to get rid of "representative democracy" and install a Strong Man, preferably one with a taste for blood - or even blood, blood and more blood.

Any Peebie spring to mind?

A dictator? Directly elected, perhaps?

By AV.

I wonder.....

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Cheers to Mr. Roger for assessing the adverts in another good article.

FPT: I was going to watch Top Gear, but couldn't make it past the credits due to the screaming irritant now fronting the show. Judging by comments on the previous thread, my instinct was right.

Always thought Evans would be irksome, but didn't expect to be that put off.

Innocent_Abroad

dugarbandier said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Time, methinks, to get rid of "representative democracy" and install a Strong Man, preferably one with a taste for blood - or even blood, blood and more blood.

Any Peebie spring to mind?

are you putting yourself forward for the role IA?

You don't read my posts, do you?

Charles

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

or false?

dugarbandier

Innocent_Abroad said:

dugarbandier said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Time, methinks, to get rid of "representative democracy" and install a Strong Man, preferably one with a taste for blood - or even blood, blood and more blood.

Any Peebie spring to mind?

are you putting yourself forward for the role IA?

You don't read my posts, do you?

*innocent face*

Scott_P

Morris_Dancer said:

I was going to watch Top Gear, but couldn't make it past the credits due to the screaming irritant now fronting the show. Judging by comments on the previous thread, my instinct was right.

Always thought Evans would be irksome, but didn't expect to be that put off.

I would rather watch Fifth gear than Top gear

Morris_Dancer

Mr. P, I would rather play Fallout 4 on Survival Mode. Which I did, and cleared out the water treatment plan with expert precision (which may have been helped by a random Brotherhood of Steel Vertibird destroying almost all the supermutants before I turned up).

I did flick back occasionally but couldn't watch for long. Matt le Blanc seemed ok. Evans should be tossed overboard.

logical_song

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

or false?

Yes it's so easy to produce these.

MarkHopkins

Thanks, Roger.

RobD

dr_spyn said:

twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

Did you see this on your own ballot paper, or just this tweet?

Roger

MonikerDiCanio said:

Nice work Roger.
Charming womanly voice of the Leave narrator contrasts with the silly millennial teen simper of Remain.

A strange choice by 'Remain'. My first draft devoted a paragraph to THAT voice but then I decided not to be unkind. She works fine as a young mother but when it comes to explaining the complexities of EU financing she becomes Jane Horrocks in Ab Fab

ThreeQuidder

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

or false?

Apparently it's genuine but only in Bristol.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/29/voters-in-the-eu-referendum-told-to-vote-for-remain-in-postal-vo/

dr_spyn

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

Did you see this on your own ballot paper, or just this tweet?

That was the real thing.

RobD

dr_spyn said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

Did you see this on your own ballot paper, or just this tweet?

That was the real thing.

Not sure if that answers my question? Was just trying to ascertain wether we have seen it elsewhere. I do agree it would be wrong to have the instructions printed that way.

Edit: Just saw the telegraph link. Surely they must have thought about this when designing the instructions!

Innocent_Abroad

dugarbandier said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

dugarbandier said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Time, methinks, to get rid of "representative democracy" and install a Strong Man, preferably one with a taste for blood - or even blood, blood and more blood.

Any Peebie spring to mind?

are you putting yourself forward for the role IA?

You don't read my posts, do you?

*innocent face*

Scott_P

@patrickwintour: Kenneth Clarke "Leave campaign has been turned into a leadership bid for Johnson. Boris & Donald Trump should go away and enjoy themselves".

@PolhomeEditor: Boris Johnson is "a nicer version of Donald Trump", says Ken Clarke. Blimey. @BBCr4today

Scott_P

He is an American with weird hair, trying to propel himself to the highest office in the land.

And so is Donald Trump...

dr_spyn

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

Did you see this on your own ballot paper, or just this tweet?

That was the real thing.

Not sure if that answers my question? Was just trying to ascertain wether we have seen it elsewhere. I do agree it would be wrong to have the instructions printed that way.

That is the exact design which arrived on Saturday morning with the postal vote.

MarkHopkins

dr_spyn said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

Did you see this on your own ballot paper, or just this tweet?

That was the real thing.

Not sure if that answers my question? Was just trying to ascertain wether we have seen it elsewhere. I do agree it would be wrong to have the instructions printed that way.

That is the exact design which arrived on Saturday morning with the postal vote.

Are you in the Bristol area. Is it just there?

Council are apparently fine with it as it doesn't actually show a cross in the box !

JackW

Scott_P said:

He is an American with weird hair, trying to propel himself to the highest office in the land.

And so is Donald Trump...

Chortle ....

NickPalmer

I thought the first Vote Leave ad worked well in a crude sort of way, but the "in the EU/out of the EU" split screen was confusing and dull - not really clear that it was making that much difference, and I gave up after a couple of minutes. The Remain ad is just boring.

dr_spyn

MarkHopkins said:

dr_spyn said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

Did you see this on your own ballot paper, or just this tweet?

That was the real thing.

Not sure if that answers my question? Was just trying to ascertain wether we have seen it elsewhere. I do agree it would be wrong to have the instructions printed that way.

That is the exact design which arrived on Saturday morning with the postal vote.

Are you in the Bristol area. Is it just there?

Council are apparently fine with it as it doesn't actually show a cross in the box !

That is the design that that very wonderful council sent out.

RobD

dr_spyn said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

Did you see this on your own ballot paper, or just this tweet?

That was the real thing.

Not sure if that answers my question? Was just trying to ascertain wether we have seen it elsewhere. I do agree it would be wrong to have the instructions printed that way.

That is the exact design which arrived on Saturday morning with the postal vote.

Yeah, I saw the Telegraph article just after posting that reply. Hopefully the electoral commission does something...

Charles

ThreeQuidder said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

or false?

Apparently it's genuine but only in Bristol.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/29/voters-in-the-eu-referendum-told-to-vote-for-remain-in-postal-vo/

If true, that's extraordinary.

I'm astounded that the returning officer thought it was a good idea. Presumably there would be the possibility to strike down the whole of the Bristol postal vote?

dugarbandier

NickPalmer said:

I thought the first Vote Leave ad worked well in a crude sort of way, but the "in the EU/out of the EU" split screen was confusing and dull - not really clear that it was making that much difference, and I gave up after a couple of minutes. The Remain ad is just boring.

true, if I hadn't read Roger's commentary first, it might have taken a while to figure out the split screen thing

dr_spyn

Charles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

or false?

Apparently it's genuine but only in Bristol.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/29/voters-in-the-eu-referendum-told-to-vote-for-remain-in-postal-vo/

If true, that's extraordinary.

I'm astounded that the returning officer thought it was a good idea. Presumably there would be the possibility to strike down the whole of the Bristol postal vote?

Chief Returning Officer is also the Chief Executive, a Poo Bah figure named Nicola Yates.

ydoethur

surbiton said:

Is Gove and Johnson now using Attlee and Bevan ? Shame on them !

The last RemaIN broadcast should have a snippet each from Major, Blair, Brown and Cameron. All Prime Ministers current or ex alive. All extolling the same theme.

Please not the current and ex-Chancellors [ specially the current one ]. That will make the undecided Labour vote go only one way.

Two things:

1) Brown and Major are ex-chancellors;

2) I would have thought putting Blair on an ad for REMAIN would sway all undecided Labour voters to LEAVE, and Brown would sway all undecided Conservative voters the same way, while Cameron would have the same effect on the LibDem voters (both of them).

So I really don't think that is a great plan - unless you have switched to LEAVE and are getting all Machiavellian about it!

ydoethur

Scott_P said:

@patrickwintour: Kenneth Clarke "Leave campaign has been turned into a leadership bid for Johnson. Boris & Donald Trump should go away and enjoy themselves".

Given their reputations, that really is TMI.

ydoethur

Charles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

or false?

Apparently it's genuine but only in Bristol.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/29/voters-in-the-eu-referendum-told-to-vote-for-remain-in-postal-vo/

If true, that's extraordinary.

I'm astounded that the returning officer thought it was a good idea. Presumably there would be the possibility to strike down the whole of the Bristol postal vote?

1) It's Bristol and they'll all vote remain anyway;

2) The returning officer there is so far as I can judge incapable of thought, so your premise is flawed. Bristol makes Islington Labour Party in the good old days of Hodge look efficient, sane, equitable and well-run.

MikeK

ThreeQuidder said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

or false?

Apparently it's genuine but only in Bristol.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/29/voters-in-the-eu-referendum-told-to-vote-for-remain-in-postal-vo/

If this only appears in Bristol I'll eat my old Fedora. Clearly the voting commission is less than neutral.

TGOHF

Past European voting bias

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/57/Stimmzettel-Anschluss.jpg

peter_from_putney

MikeK said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

or false?

Apparently it's genuine but only in Bristol.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/29/voters-in-the-eu-referendum-told-to-vote-for-remain-in-postal-vo/

If this only appears in Bristol I'll eat my old Fedora. Clearly the voting commission is less than neutral.

Is it a red Fedora, like that of the much missed Peter_the_Punter?

Monksfield

Morning frothers.. Been at my in-laws for the weekend and it struck me how everything in the PB bubble is debated to such a degree and so intensely that we perhaps lose sight of how the public reacts to things.

Anyway I was relatively surprised to find my Father in Law for in whilst my Mother in Law was a waverer although I would guess leaning Leave.

HaroldO

I haven't really been following the whole carnival of campaign until this weekend and the personal attacks on Cameron, which seem to be an attempt to try and drag down the biggest beast that opposes them and to strike out for the future leadership campaign.
Problem is all it does is alienate people like me who are open to voting Tory (and have in the past) but are adverse to mendacious naval gazing, such as the events of this weekend. I
I would rather vote Lib Dem than see a Tory government run by the rights equivalent of Jeremy Corbyn. Ugh.

surbiton

I have read Philip Walker's piece a couple of threads back. I am not that gloomy about Labour as he is. He is a Brexiter mind.

Nonetheless, it was too good an opportunity not to look at the detailed YouGov data. This is what I make of it:

GE2015
C 545
Lab 477
LD 121
UKIP 191
Others 188

Total 1522

Having excluded the DK / WNV , the current VI gives in percentages:

IN OUT

C 40.41% 59.59%
Lab 74.26% 25.74%
LD 78.72% 21.28%
UKIP 2.45% 97.55%
Others 66.92% 33.08%

Putting this back into the GE15 [ but excluding DK/WNV ]

IN OUT


C 220 325
Lab 354 123
LD 95 26
UKIP 5 186
Others 126 62

Total 800 722

52.5% 47.5%

What struck me were the Labour and Tory splits. Remember many Labour OUTers already identify themselves with UKIP. so Lab IN % will go up. But this also applies to Tories. And despite the defection to UKIP, still 60% of GE2015 Tories identify with Brexit.

By the way, I feel most DK/WNV's will opt for IN. They are still 13.7% of the VI total.

Make no mistake, if RemaIN wins, it was Labour voters wot won it !

Wanderer

Monksfield said:

Morning frothers.. Been at my in-laws for the weekend and it struck me how everything in the PB bubble is debated to such a degree and so intensely that we perhaps lose sight of how the public reacts to things.

Anyway I was relatively surprised to find my Father in Law for in whilst my Mother in Law was a waverer although I would guess leaning Leave.

What were your expectations of your in-laws? I mean, have they trended R or L vs what you expected.

dugarbandier

MikeK said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

or false?

Apparently it's genuine but only in Bristol.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/29/voters-in-the-eu-referendum-told-to-vote-for-remain-in-postal-vo/

If this only appears in Bristol I'll eat my old Fedora. Clearly the voting commission is less than neutral.

don't be a paddy ashdown...

surbiton

ydoethur said:

surbiton said:

Is Gove and Johnson now using Attlee and Bevan ? Shame on them !

The last RemaIN broadcast should have a snippet each from Major, Blair, Brown and Cameron. All Prime Ministers current or ex alive. All extolling the same theme.

Please not the current and ex-Chancellors [ specially the current one ]. That will make the undecided Labour vote go only one way.

Two things:

1) Brown and Major are ex-chancellors;

2) I would have thought putting Blair on an ad for REMAIN would sway all undecided Labour voters to LEAVE, and Brown would sway all undecided Conservative voters the same way, while Cameron would have the same effect on the LibDem voters (both of them).

So I really don't think that is a great plan - unless you have switched to LEAVE and are getting all Machiavellian about it!

No, I don't think it will. Many people are looking for an excuse to vote RemaIN. IN 1975, it was "Harold, says so " when most of the Labour voters were against the EEC.

I think another line up could be:

Cameron, Corbyn, Farron, Sturgeon, Lucas, Wood all given 30 or 15 seconds.

The last bit should just mention that amongst all the party leaders in GB, only Farage is against RemaIN.

It would affect the DK/WNV's.

MarqueeMark

The Remain add shows the limitations of their advertising in this Referendum. Basically, they are saying "Don't buy another car! Your current one is fine. Buy another car and the wheels might, er, fall off. Yes, that's it, your wheels might fall off any new car you ever buy, ever..."

The power of advertising is in selling you a new car.

It also shows the limitations of the Remain case. They have nothing they aren't embarrassed to even try to sell you.

Monksfield

surbiton said:

In the event of Leave winning or a close RemaIN win, what are the chances of the Boundary seats review going through ?

Dead in the water in its current form - and rightly so in my view. Will go ahead with no reduction in seat numbers.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Mark, that's a good observation about advertising.

I am shocked to discover Remain isn't shouting of Cameron's amazing deal, though.

ThreeQuidder

surbiton said:

ydoethur said:

surbiton said:

Is Gove and Johnson now using Attlee and Bevan ? Shame on them !

The last RemaIN broadcast should have a snippet each from Major, Blair, Brown and Cameron. All Prime Ministers current or ex alive. All extolling the same theme.

Please not the current and ex-Chancellors [ specially the current one ]. That will make the undecided Labour vote go only one way.

Two things:

1) Brown and Major are ex-chancellors;

2) I would have thought putting Blair on an ad for REMAIN would sway all undecided Labour voters to LEAVE, and Brown would sway all undecided Conservative voters the same way, while Cameron would have the same effect on the LibDem voters (both of them).

So I really don't think that is a great plan - unless you have switched to LEAVE and are getting all Machiavellian about it!

No, I don't think it will. Many people are looking for an excuse to vote RemaIN. IN 1975, it was "Harold, says so " when most of the Labour voters were against the EEC.

I think another line up could be:

Cameron, Corbyn, Farron, Sturgeon, Lucas, Wood all given 30 or 15 seconds.

The last bit should just mention that amongst all the party leaders in GB, only Farage is against RemaIN.

It would affect the DK/WNV's.

Not necessarily in the way you hope.

Many who don't vote think that there's no point voting because "they're all the same". If these people turn out to vote against the Establishment consensus...

dr_spyn

Another set of instructions for postal votes.

https://twitter.com/acommonlawyer/status/737188794164752384

Monksfield

Wanderer said:

Monksfield said:

Morning frothers.. Been at my in-laws for the weekend and it struck me how everything in the PB bubble is debated to such a degree and so intensely that we perhaps lose sight of how the public reacts to things.

Anyway I was relatively surprised to find my Father in Law for in whilst my Mother in Law was a waverer although I would guess leaning Leave.

What were your expectations of your in-laws? I mean, have they trended R or L vs what you expected.

They're Tory voting farmers.

PlatoSaid

MarqueeMark said:

The Remain add shows the limitations of their advertising in this Referendum. Basically, they are saying "Don't buy another car! Your current one is fine. Buy another car and the wheels might, er, fall off. Yes, that's it, your wheels might fall off any new car you ever buy, ever..."

The power of advertising is in selling you a new car.

It also shows the limitations of the Remain case. They have nothing they aren't embarrassed to even try to sell you.

Have you seen the Remain Pledge Card? Emptier than EdStone. Apparently we'll have a "Special Status" in the EU.

dr_spyn

Another design.

https://twitter.com/JamDelay/status/736516687063863296

Charles

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

or false?

Apparently it's genuine but only in Bristol.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/29/voters-in-the-eu-referendum-told-to-vote-for-remain-in-postal-vo/

If true, that's extraordinary.

I'm astounded that the returning officer thought it was a good idea. Presumably there would be the possibility to strike down the whole of the Bristol postal vote?

1) It's Bristol and they'll all vote remain anyway;

2) The returning officer there is so far as I can judge incapable of thought, so your premise is flawed. Bristol makes Islington Labour Party in the good old days of Hodge look efficient, sane, equitable and well-run.

(1) And that's the issue.

If - and it's a big if, but I don't know electoral law - the votes are deemed invalid as a result of the guidance and either have to be re-issued or re-run or struck out that's really not good. It's not good for Remain; if it's close (or worse still changes the result) that also plays into the narrative of a corrupted vote that some people might claim

rottenborough

dr_spyn said:

Charles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

or false?

Apparently it's genuine but only in Bristol.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/29/voters-in-the-eu-referendum-told-to-vote-for-remain-in-postal-vo/

If true, that's extraordinary.

I'm astounded that the returning officer thought it was a good idea. Presumably there would be the possibility to strike down the whole of the Bristol postal vote?

Chief Returning Officer is also the Chief Executive, a Poo Bah figure named Nicola Yates.

Isn't it usually the CEO of the Council in most places? This is nominal - the actual election-related work though gets done by the Deputy.

MarqueeMark

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Mark, that's a good observation about advertising.

I am shocked to discover Remain isn't shouting of Cameron's amazing deal, though.

You wouldn't know from the Remain camp that there had even BEEN a renegotiation, so embarrassed are they to mention the Prime Minister's mighty routing of Johnny European...

PlatoSaid

dr_spyn said:

Another design.

ttps://twitter.com/JamDelay/status/736516687063863296

I'm genuinely surprised that there isn't a single standard format produced and mandated by the EComm.

PeterC

surbiton said:

ydoethur said:

surbiton said:

Is Gove and Johnson now using Attlee and Bevan ? Shame on them !

The last RemaIN broadcast should have a snippet each from Major, Blair, Brown and Cameron. All Prime Ministers current or ex alive. All extolling the same theme.

Please not the current and ex-Chancellors [ specially the current one ]. That will make the undecided Labour vote go only one way.

Two things:

1) Brown and Major are ex-chancellors;

2) I would have thought putting Blair on an ad for REMAIN would sway all undecided Labour voters to LEAVE, and Brown would sway all undecided Conservative voters the same way, while Cameron would have the same effect on the LibDem voters (both of them).

So I really don't think that is a great plan - unless you have switched to LEAVE and are getting all Machiavellian about it!

No, I don't think it will. Many people are looking for an excuse to vote RemaIN. IN 1975, it was "Harold, says so " when most of the Labour voters were against the EEC.

I think another line up could be:

Cameron, Corbyn, Farron, Sturgeon, Lucas, Wood all given 30 or 15 seconds.

The last bit should just mention that amongst all the party leaders in GB, only Farage is against RemaIN.

It would affect the DK/WNV's.

It all depends on whether you think a consensus is a good thing though, doesn;t it?

Innocent_Abroad

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

or false?

Apparently it's genuine but only in Bristol.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/29/voters-in-the-eu-referendum-told-to-vote-for-remain-in-postal-vo/

If true, that's extraordinary.

I'm astounded that the returning officer thought it was a good idea. Presumably there would be the possibility to strike down the whole of the Bristol postal vote?

1) It's Bristol and they'll all vote remain anyway;

2) The returning officer there is so far as I can judge incapable of thought, so your premise is flawed. Bristol makes Islington Labour Party in the good old days of Hodge look efficient, sane, equitable and well-run.

(1) And that's the issue.

If - and it's a big if, but I don't know electoral law - the votes are deemed invalid as a result of the guidance and either have to be re-issued or re-run or struck out that's really not good. It's not good for Remain; if it's close (or worse still changes the result) that also plays into the narrative of a corrupted vote that some people might claim

Might claim? I'd say that if REMAIN win by less than 20% it's a certainty.

MarqueeMark

PlatoSaid said:

MarqueeMark said:

The Remain add shows the limitations of their advertising in this Referendum. Basically, they are saying "Don't buy another car! Your current one is fine. Buy another car and the wheels might, er, fall off. Yes, that's it, your wheels might fall off any new car you ever buy, ever..."

The power of advertising is in selling you a new car.

It also shows the limitations of the Remain case. They have nothing they aren't embarrassed to even try to sell you.

Have you seen the Remain Pledge Card? Emptier than EdStone. Apparently we'll have a "Special Status" in the EU.

That is because Brussels thinks the British people's Needs are Special....

RobD

PlatoSaid said:

dr_spyn said:

Another design.

ttps://twitter.com/JamDelay/status/736516687063863296

I'm genuinely surprised that there isn't a single standard format produced and mandated by the EComm.

You can bet there will be now....

Morris_Dancer

Miss Plato, cash cow is a special status

Wanderer

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/rinka_dog/status/736980212395724800

Impartial, neutral or leading?

or false?

Apparently it's genuine but only in Bristol.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/29/voters-in-the-eu-referendum-told-to-vote-for-remain-in-postal-vo/

If true, that's extraordinary.

I'm astounded that the returning officer thought it was a good idea. Presumably there would be the possibility to strike down the whole of the Bristol postal vote?

1) It's Bristol and they'll all vote remain anyway;

2) The returning officer there is so far as I can judge incapable of thought, so your premise is flawed. Bristol makes Islington Labour Party in the good old days of Hodge look efficient, sane, equitable and well-run.

(1) And that's the issue.

If - and it's a big if, but I don't know electoral law - the votes are deemed invalid as a result of the guidance and either have to be re-issued or re-run or struck out that's really not good. It's not good for Remain; if it's close (or worse still changes the result) that also plays into the narrative of a corrupted vote that some people might claim

Likely to shift 0 votes so hard for it to change the result.