politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EU can’t have its Turkey and eat it

SandyRentool said:

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

EPG said:

Cyclefree said:

Sean_F said:

blackburn63 said:

Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.

The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was horrific. A necessary evil, IMHO, but still evil.

Indeed. But the Japanese were not innocent victims. They had been perpetrating evil themselves on plenty of other countries for at least a decade before then.

As you sow so shall you reap.

The people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, ordinary Japanese/Korean civilians were innocent victims.

Once you get into the realm of total war with conscription the difference between service personnel and civilians becomes a bit blurred, doesn't it? Who is the innocent in this chain, the person who works at making guns, the person who has been forced by government decree in to maintaining guns, the person who has similarly been forced into firing guns? All three are necessary if that country is to kill the opposing forces and so win the war but only two are in uniform and one of those is a non-combatant.

I agree with Sherman, War is hell, and total war is probably the seventh circle under the pit. However if you kick one off then don't be surprised if the other side use whatever means they can to try and win. St Augustine of Hippo and St Thomas Aquinas were writing in a very different age when war was a very different thing to that experience in, say, WW2.

IMHO, Just War doctrines have held up very well over the centuries. Medieval warfare could be just as total as modern warfare (eg when cities were besieged).

Having studied Just War Theory I reached the conclusion that the only consistent positions to hold are pacifism and total war. Anything in between is compromise and fudge, such as Churchill justifying the bombing of German cities.

Taking a position of non - aggression, but switching to total war (if necessary) if you are attacked would be my policy.

That involves switching off your brain.

The right policy is using the minimum force needed to get the job done. We didn't fire off Polaris when Argentina invaded the Falklands.

SandraM said:

dr_spyn said:

Delia Smith as political pundit, has she a new book to sell, "The EU collection"?

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/27/the-daily-scare-tactics-beggar-belief-theyre-not-working?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

It's trending on twitter and many are saying that it is one of the most rational pieces to have come out of the debate so far.

Delia will be standing as a Parliamentary candidate next ..... I'm sure her esteemed colleague on the Norwich City Board would be able to point her in the right direction.

Meantime trouble at mill in Greece...

Aside from online gambling, the Greek government is also expected to impose similar duty increases for operators working within the country’s heating oil, automotive, e-cigarette, pay-TV, coffee, luxury goods and alcohol industries.

https://www.highstakesdb.com/6885-greek-government-increases-online-gambling-tax-to-35.aspx

I am sure the Greek people will take increased cost of booze and coffee with a relaxed attitude when the cost to the companies are passed on to consumers.

Betting Post

F1: I may've missed something, but Rosberg's 6 for pole on Betfair. Backed that, hedged at 2.5.

It seems very long to me.

Worth bearing in mind I've got about 7/9 bets wrong this year, so keep that in mind.

david_herdson said:

SandyRentool said:

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

EPG said:

Cyclefree said:

Sean_F said:

blackburn63 said:

Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.

The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was horrific. A necessary evil, IMHO, but still evil.

Indeed. But the Japanese were not innocent victims. They had been perpetrating evil themselves on plenty of other countries for at least a decade before then.

As you sow so shall you reap.

The people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, ordinary Japanese/Korean civilians were innocent victims.

Once you get into the realm of total war with conscription the difference between service personnel and civilians becomes a bit blurred, doesn't it? Who is the innocent in this chain, the person who works at making guns, the person who has been forced by government decree in to maintaining guns, the person who has similarly been forced into firing guns? All three are necessary if that country is to kill the opposing forces and so win the war but only two are in uniform and one of those is a non-combatant.

I agree with Sherman, War is hell, and total war is probably the seventh circle under the pit. However if you kick one off then don't be surprised if the other side use whatever means they can to try and win. St Augustine of Hippo and St Thomas Aquinas were writing in a very different age when war was a very different thing to that experience in, say, WW2.

IMHO, Just War doctrines have held up very well over the centuries. Medieval warfare could be just as total as modern warfare (eg when cities were besieged).

Having studied Just War Theory I reached the conclusion that the only consistent positions to hold are pacifism and total war. Anything in between is compromise and fudge, such as Churchill justifying the bombing of German cities.

Taking a position of non - aggression, but switching to total war (if necessary) if you are attacked would be my policy.

The right policy is using the minimum force needed to get the job done. We didn't fire off Polaris when Argentina invaded the Falklands.

As a Labour MP, possibly in his cups, said at the time

'We should drop a big one on Rio - that would show the Argies!'

'It certainly would - but mightn't it upset the Brazilians?'

Mr. W, hopefully that can come about.

I wonder if Greece will return to monarchy.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. W, hopefully that can come about.

I wonder if Greece will return to monarchy.

Only if Angela Merkel want it ....

peter_from_putney said:

SandraM said:

dr_spyn said:

Delia Smith as political pundit, has she a new book to sell, "The EU collection"?

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/27/the-daily-scare-tactics-beggar-belief-theyre-not-working?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

It's trending on twitter and many are saying that it is one of the most rational pieces to have come out of the debate so far.

Delia will be standing as a Parliamentary candidate next ..... I'm sure her esteemed colleague on the Norwich City Board would be able to point her in the right direction.

Wonder if he wrote the piece for her?

Cyclefree said:

SouthamObserver said:

Cyclefree said:

SouthamObserver said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Cyclefree said:

foxinsoxuk said:

blackburn63 said:

The funniest thing I've read on here is that Turkey should become secular. Yeah, and put the tooth fairy in charge.

Kemal Ataturk did secularize Turkish institutions*, including ending the caliphate, adopting western dress and the Roman alphabet. He was rather a fascist in many ways, but is still heavily respected there. A revival of Ataturkism is the best hope for a secularist Turkey, though a slightly more democratic version would be in keeping with the times.

*amongst many other things including killing my grandmothers uncle via his counterattack at Gallipoli.

The trend in the Islamic world seems to be away from secularisation and towards more Islamization and one can even see this in some of the younger generations within Muslim communities within Europe. It think it is deluded to think that we will get a secular democratic Turkey in the way we understand it any time soon.

Certainly that is the trend at present, particularly since the fall of the Communist bloc.

There is a considerable secularist faction in most Muslim countries and populations though, and not inconceivable that the tide will change back in that direction. Pretty unpleasant secularists like Assad, Mubarak or Saddam Hussain by and large, but not the existential threat that Islamism could be.

The EU and NATO made a huge mistake in not intervening far sooner in Bisnia. That failure did two things: (1) it helped build a narrative of the west not caring about Moslems; and (2) it began a trend of young Moslems going off to fight for Islam.

But despite the fact that the US did push for action to protect the Muslim population and eventually got their way they still get no credit from the Muslim world. So one is inclined to think that those seeking to justify young Muslims going off to fight pick only those events which justify what they want to do and ignore those facts which don't suit their narrative.

Not seeking to justify it in any way. Just saying that it came from somewhere and that if different decisions had been made in the past things may well have turned out differently. St

Agreed. Britain's role was particularly shameful. And as for Douglad Hurd's justifications for denying the Bosnians the arms to defend themselves .... Yuck!

It is not in our national interest to get directly involved in civil wars unless 1 side is a direct threat to our national security eg harbouring and encouraging terrorism against the west

david_herdson said:

SandyRentool said:

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

EPG said:

Cyclefree said:

Sean_F said:

blackburn63 said:

Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.

The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was horrific. A necessary evil, IMHO, but still evil.

Indeed. But the Japanese were not innocent victims. They had been perpetrating evil themselves on plenty of other countries for at least a decade before then.

As you sow so shall you reap.

The people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, ordinary Japanese/Korean civilians were innocent victims.

Once you get into the realm of total war with conscription the difference between service personnel and civilians becomes a bit blurred, doesn't it? Who is the innocent in this chain, the person who works at making guns, the person who has been forced by government decree in to maintaining guns, the person who has similarly been forced into firing guns? All three are necessary if that country is to kill the opposing forces and so win the war but only two are in uniform and one of those is a non-combatant.

I agree with Sherman, War is hell, and total war is probably the seventh circle under the pit. However if you kick one off then don't be surprised if the other side use whatever means they can to try and win. St Augustine of Hippo and St Thomas Aquinas were writing in a very different age when war was a very different thing to that experience in, say, WW2.

IMHO, Just War doctrines have held up very well over the centuries. Medieval warfare could be just as total as modern warfare (eg when cities were besieged).

Having studied Just War Theory I reached the conclusion that the only consistent positions to hold are pacifism and total war. Anything in between is compromise and fudge, such as Churchill justifying the bombing of German cities.

Taking a position of non - aggression, but switching to total war (if necessary) if you are attacked would be my policy.

That involves switching off your brain.

The right policy is using the minimum force needed to get the job done. We didn't fire off Polaris when Argentina invaded the Falklands.

We lost 255 men and some ships IIRC - A Polaris at Argentina would have saved them - OK it would have killed a few more (million) Argentinians but you can't make an omelette without breaking eggs.

Morris_Dancer said:

Betting Post

F1: I may've missed something, but Rosberg's 6 for pole on Betfair. Backed that, hedged at 2.5.

It seems very long to me.

Worth bearing in mind I've got about 7/9 bets wrong this year, so keep that in mind.

Ah, but what about the other two!

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

Sanders looks to be trying to crash the Democrats if he doesn't get the nomination, which he obviously won't. Pretty stunning stuff.

In what way? He has said he will fight until the last vote is counted, he has not promised to do anything more after beyond push his agenda into the platform

He's started demanding senior democrats resign from party chairmanships otherwise he will grind the convention to a halt with procedural bollocks. One of the people he wants to step down, Barney Frank. This is obviously going down like a bag of sick with senior Democrats and activists alike .

Well considering he has over 2500 delegates behind him at the convention it is not surprising he will try and use them to get some leverage. There will likely be lively happenings at both conventions, at the GOP convention there will almost certainly be riots outside, inside should be calmer (though half the GOP establishment will boycott it), while on the Democratic side Sanders supporters will be a vocal presence and push hard to get their agenda on the platform

Making Barney Frank the target is idiotic, he's a darling of the left.

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

Sanders looks to be trying to crash the Democrats if he doesn't get the nomination, which he obviously won't. Pretty stunning stuff.

In what way? He has said he will fight until the last vote is counted, he has not promised to do anything more after beyond push his agenda into the platform

He's started demanding senior democrats resign from party chairmanships otherwise he will grind the convention to a halt with procedural bollocks. One of the people he wants to step down, Barney Frank. This is obviously going down like a bag of sick with senior Democrats and activists alike .

Well considering he has over 2500 delegates behind him at the convention it is not surprising he will try and use them to get some leverage. There will likely be lively happenings at both conventions, at the GOP convention there will almost certainly be riots outside, inside should be calmer (though half the GOP establishment will boycott it), while on the Democratic side Sanders supporters will be a vocal presence and push hard to get their agenda on the platform

Making Barney Frank the target is idiotic, he's a darling of the left.

Well if he is such a darling of Democratic activists then he will get re-elected won't he!

MikeK said:

There is not enough ordnance in the theatre, and the RAF is not doing enough. I cannot say it plainer than that. The fact that you refute it doesn't make it less true.

I refute it there is plenty of ordinance in the theatre as demonstrated by the fact ISIS are now full on in retreat unlike before. We need smartly targeted ordinance not lots of it. We are doing what is appropriate and even better than that it is working so far.

MikeK said:

@NickPalmer
Not sure that's supported by the evidence - Iran seems to be reacting against the extremes and even Saudi is shifting a bit. The recent poll of young people across the Arab world showed a strong aversion to the extent of religious influence.
--------
I see that Nick is in his cups again if he believes the rubbish he wrote, above.

Iran is a very democratic country by the standards of that part of the world, and I suspect going forward a rather more stable potential ally than Saudi.

Indigo said:

Rexel56 said:

blackburn63 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

blackburn63 said:

Plato_Says said:

It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.

What like US and UK planes bombing IS and our troops help plan and train local forces for ground operations?

If only Dave had thought of that...

Interesting that the liberal luvvie set are rushing to his defence while traditional tories are disowning him.

That's how the GE2015 was won and, if it continues, the GE2020 will be won. Elections are won in the centre ground and Cameron and Osborne know that. Of course, should the Tories tack hard right after Leave wins the referendum, things may be different and we could even see a Labour/SNP/LibDem co-alition elected on a promise to abort the negotiations to leave. By this stage we will also understand better what Putin has done to exploit EU disarray.

No, they really are not. They are only won in the centre ground if you can keep your wing on board. If 20% of Tories, presumably those to the right of the party, peel off to the Kippers or stay at home, the Tories lose the next election. There might be more voters in the centre, but you are also competing with more parties for that vote.

Never going to happen. Anyone who votes UKIP may as well abstain.

MikeK said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MikeK said:

There is not enough ordnance in the theatre, and the RAF is not doing enough. I cannot say it plainer than that. The fact that you refute it doesn't make it less true.

I refute it there is plenty of ordinance in the theatre as demonstrated by the fact ISIS are now full on in retreat unlike before. We need smartly targeted ordinance not lots of it. We are doing what is appropriate and even better than that it is working so far.

They are in retreat by Russian and American ordnance and Syrian, Kurdish and Iraki boots on the ground. Britain has a very feeble presence in comparison.

We are allied with the Americans and working in conjunction with them. So a success of our alliance is a success for us.

I missed this story - we've just had a people trafficker caught with 17 Albanians on a yatcht at Chichester marina.

'Automatic weapons worth £100k seized from a British gang on a cruiser at Cuxton marina, near Rochester.

22 assault rifles, nine sub-machineguns and 1,500 rounds of ammunition - from same European supplier as those used in Charlie Hebdo.

peter_from_putney said:

RodCrosby said:

My Veep tip in to 21, from 85 on BF (been trading around 50 previously)...

Indeed, she's 15 to buy now on the Betfair exchange, but why aren't the bookies joining in the fun?

It seemed a good tip to me so I put a tenner on in the forties.

There isn't a lot of liquidity in that market though.

MikeK said:

Plato_Says said:

I missed this story - we've just had a people trafficker caught with 17 Albanians on a yatcht at Chichester marina.

'Automatic weapons worth £100k seized from a British gang on a cruiser at Cuxton marina, near Rochester.

22 assault rifles, nine sub-machineguns and 1,500 rounds of ammunition - from same European supplier as those used in Charlie Hebdo.

What we all need, @Plato, is some good Kevlar armour just in case of stray bullets or shrapnel.

There was a photo yesterday of French Police in their new armoured shoulder pieces confronting strikers. I bet that within 5 years most armies and police forces will have next to full body armour as de rigueur.

Also required by the French for minor disagreements between illegals immigrants...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3613213/Calais-refugee-camp-reduced-ashes-hundreds-migrants-burn-tents-amid-brawl-human-trafficking-routes-Britain.html

MikeK said:

Come, come, JackW. George Elector of Hanover was invited by the English great and good to take over the British Monarchy, while the heavy heel of the redcoats (mainly German mercenaries) was on every Jacobins neck.

Just be happy that the neck was not entirely broken, as it so easily could have been.

I am shocked and stunned at your comment @MikeK.

Supporting a German takeover of Britain. UKIP members have been ritually disemboweled on Channel 5 for much less ....

NickPalmer said:

Cyclefree said:

The trend in the Islamic world seems to be away from secularisation and towards more Islamization and one can even see this in some of the younger generations within Muslim communities within Europe. It think it is deluded to think that we will get a secular democratic Turkey in the way we understand it any time soon.

Not sure that's supported by the evidence - Iran seems to be reacting against the extremes and even Saudi is shifting a bit. The recent poll of young people across the Arab world showed a strong aversion to the extent of religious influence.

What undoubtedly is happening is a level of popular exasperation with abstract liberal ideals that don't actually deliver a working society with tangible benefits. I think people are mostly prepared to put up with most ideologies if the rulers deliver the goods - that's why most people in China seem OK with the overall situation, it may be pretty corrupt and obscure but hey, we're much better off than 10 years ago. In Turkey, Erdogan enjoys a degree of popularity on a similar basis to Putin - he's seen as a tough bloke who stands up for the country and gets stuff done, and if he does things to make the islamists happy, well, OK. If that ceases to be the perception, he and his islamist backers will be in trouble.

Yes, I think that is true. People are willing to put up with bad governments if they are becoming more prosperous, though soon tire of them when the economy sours, something that the Chinese Communists and Putin should watch out for. The "Arab Spring" was set off in Tunisia by the price of bread as I recall.

The process of globalisation creates some winners, but also many losers and many just side-lined. 50 years ago these people turned to Communism or anti-colonial movements, but with both Communism and Colonialism rapidly fading from memory (and MENA countries have young populations) Islamism ticks many of the boxes with its vision of an end to foreign influence, brotherhood of believers and dislike of corruption by traditional elites. It has more than a superficial resemblance to the motivations of many right wing populists in the West, from Trumpism to Jobbik via UKIP.

There are countertrends too, as the benefits of Western liberal capitalism spreads across the world. Soft power and the appeal of western culture, whether music, fashion, smartphones, or football is something we see even in the heart of IS, where fighters miss their trinkets and fastfood. This is the way to undermine Islamists, not bombing.

https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/736522550428192768

Plato_Says said:

https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/736522550428192768

To be fair when you have the leader of your party declare terrorists as friends and the next most senior person happy to also back terrorists and quote the words of mass murderers, not sure you can make moral judgements on others...

Indigo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Indigo said:

Rexel56 said:

blackburn63 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

blackburn63 said:

Plato_Says said:

It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.

What like US and UK planes bombing IS and our troops help plan and train local forces for ground operations?

If only Dave had thought of that...

Interesting that the liberal luvvie set are rushing to his defence while traditional tories are disowning him.

That's how the GE2015 was won and, if it continues, the GE2020 will be won. Elections are won in the centre ground and Cameron and Osborne know that. Of course, should the Tories tack hard right after Leave wins the referendum, things may be different and we could even see a Labour/SNP/LibDem co-alition elected on a promise to abort the negotiations to leave. By this stage we will also understand better what Putin has done to exploit EU disarray.

No, they really are not. They are only won in the centre ground if you can keep your wing on board. If 20% of Tories, presumably those to the right of the party, peel off to the Kippers or stay at home, the Tories lose the next election. There might be more voters in the centre, but you are also competing with more parties for that vote.

Never going to happen. Anyone who votes UKIP may as well abstain.

Can I quote you on that after a narrow Remain win

If the rightmost fifth of the Tory voters stay at home, they still lose.

More likely it would be like 2005, with the Tories still losing seats but largest party as the main opposition sees little rise in its voteshare, except with UKIP in place of the LDs

I think we have probably got enough runs in the cricket now not to have to worry about Woakes sending down too many pies.

MikeK said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MikeK said:

There is not enough ordnance in the theatre, and the RAF is not doing enough. I cannot say it plainer than that. The fact that you refute it doesn't make it less true.

I refute it there is plenty of ordinance in the theatre as demonstrated by the fact ISIS are now full on in retreat unlike before. We need smartly targeted ordinance not lots of it. We are doing what is appropriate and even better than that it is working so far.

They are in retreat by Russian and American ordnance and Syrian, Kurdish and Iraki boots on the ground. Britain has a very feeble presence in comparison.

Sounds a bit like what Happened to the nazis in world war 2

MikeK said:

Except that I'm no longer a member of UKIP - quite good.

Except as another organization was want to insist :

"Once In Never Out" ....

ThomasNashe said:

Plato_Says said:

https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/736504545187102720

Sorry Ken. No-one's listening to you anymore. Do yourself a favour and look after your newts.

He still refuses to accept the actual history. Plainly he has 'lost it'.

peter_from_putney said:

RodCrosby said:

peter_from_putney said:

RodCrosby said:

My Veep tip in to 21, from 85 on BF (been trading around 50 previously)...

Indeed, she's 15 to buy now on the Betfair exchange, but why aren't the bookies joining in the fun?

With such an ostensibly wide field, perhaps you have to ask for a price?

I've had a fiver's worth at a tad over 60/1 so I hope you're right. Despite her odds shortening quite dramatically the money on her is still modest ...... < £500 out of a total of £58K on the entire market.

Which veep tip are we talking about: McSally?

MikeK said:

JackW said:

MikeK said:

Come, come, JackW. George Elector of Hanover was invited by the English great and good to take over the British Monarchy, while the heavy heel of the redcoats (mainly German mercenaries) was on every Jacobins neck.

Just be happy that the neck was not entirely broken, as it so easily could have been.

I am shocked and stunned at your comment @MikeK.

Supporting a German takeover of Britain. UKIP members have been ritually disemboweled on Channel 5 for much less ....

Except that I'm no longer a member of UKIP - quite good.

A number of PB Leavers seem to have become disenchanted with UKIP over the last year or so.

Idols turn out to have feet of clay, I suppose.

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

ThomasNashe said:

Plato_Says said:

https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/736504545187102720

Sorry Ken. No-one's listening to you anymore. Do yourself a favour and look after your newts.

He still refuses to accept the actual history. Plainly he has 'lost it'.

Not lost the bottle though...

It'd be hard to find a drink if Ken and Junker beat you to the bar.

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

JackW said:

MikeK said:

Come, come, JackW. George Elector of Hanover was invited by the English great and good to take over the British Monarchy, while the heavy heel of the redcoats (mainly German mercenaries) was on every Jacobins neck.

Just be happy that the neck was not entirely broken, as it so easily could have been.

I am shocked and stunned at your comment @MikeK.

Supporting a German takeover of Britain. UKIP members have been ritually disemboweled on Channel 5 for much less ....

Except that I'm no longer a member of UKIP - quite good.

A number of PB Leavers seem to have become disenchanted with UKIP over the last year or so.

Idols turn out to have feet of clay, I suppose.

Not at all. From the very start I made clear that UKIP was a vehicle of convenience to force Cameron to give us a referendum even though he really didn't want to. It worked very well for that. Now that we have the referendum it has no further purpose in its current incarnation.

If the vote should be for Remain then I would hope that Farage would finally be pushed aside and someone more sensible and less divisive would take over at which point UKIP would again have a purpose. There were no idols involved at all and in all my time as a member I never once voted for Farage as leader.

Richard_Tyndall said:

justin124 said:

david_herdson said:

Sean_F said:

blackburn63 said:

Plato_Says said:

It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.

The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was horrific. A necessary evil, IMHO, but still evil.

It was the nature of war; a war that Japan brought on themselves. The bombings certainly saved many tens of thousands of allies lives - probably hundreds of thousands - and probably millions of Japanese ones given the state of near-famine the country was in in August 1945. They were certainly no worse than the Tokyo fire-bombing, which killed more people (not that anyone remembers that because it doesn't have political potency).

The decision to drop the bombs was the right one. As such, no apology is needed. We can, however, regret the losses that war brings, just as we can put past hostility behind us.

I have seen it suggested that the act of dropping the bomb was evil on the basis that Truman well knew that Japan was willing to surrender and that he was keen to use the terrible weapon as a warning to Stalin and the USSR.

Nope. The Japanese were given the chance to surrender after the first bomb was dropped and still refused. The accounts and minutes of the meetings held at the highest level in Japan are still available showing they would not consider surrender either before or after Hiroshima.

The battles on the Japanese mainland would have been dreadful, given the figure for Okinawa. According to Wikipedia there was an estimated total of over 82,000 direct casualties on both sides; 14,009 Allied deaths (over 12,500 Americans killed or missing) and 77,166 Japanese soldiers, excluding those who died from their injuries later. No figures are given for supporting Japanese forces killed. Allied grave registration forces counted 110,071 dead bodies. 42,000 to 150,000 local civilians (including all male citizens over 18, and many drafted male and female students under age 18) were killed, committed suicide or went missing, a significant proportion of the estimated pre-war 300,000 local population

@david_herdson A very interesting & thoughtful article as usual - many thanks.

Oh, and afternoon, all.

Floater said:

Way to go Labour, way to go.

http://order-order.com/2016/05/28/labour-reinstate-race-row-corbynista/

Vile vile vile is the effluent that is coming to the surface now Corbyn and his merry band have taken control of the asylum.

I can't wait to see the justification explaining away that Jews were behind the slave trade.

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

JackW said:

MikeK said:

Come, come, JackW. George Elector of Hanover was invited by the English great and good to take over the British Monarchy, while the heavy heel of the redcoats (mainly German mercenaries) was on every Jacobins neck.

Just be happy that the neck was not entirely broken, as it so easily could have been.

I am shocked and stunned at your comment @MikeK.

Supporting a German takeover of Britain. UKIP members have been ritually disemboweled on Channel 5 for much less ....

Except that I'm no longer a member of UKIP - quite good.

A number of PB Leavers seem to have become disenchanted with UKIP over the last year or so.

Idols turn out to have feet of clay, I suppose.

Not at all. From the very start I made clear that UKIP was a vehicle of convenience to force Cameron to give us a referendum even though he really didn't want to. It worked very well for that. Now that we have the referendum it has no further purpose in its current incarnation.

If the vote should be for Remain then I would hope that Farage would finally be pushed aside and someone more sensible and less divisive would take over at which point UKIP would again have a purpose. There were no idols involved at all and in all my time as a member I never once voted for Farage as leader.

I know that you have never been a Faragist, but it is interesting to see that other Kippers are leaving the fold.

Without claiming Jacks crown, I did call peak kipper after the 2014 Euros.

Rubbish, peak Kipper will be 2020 when UKIP will get about 17/18% of the vote, unless Leave win or Remain win a landslide we are nowhere near peak Kipper yet!

Indigo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Indigo said:

Rexel56 said:

blackburn63 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

blackburn63 said:

Plato_Says said:

It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.

What like US and UK planes bombing IS and our troops help plan and train local forces for ground operations?

If only Dave had thought of that...

Interesting that the liberal luvvie set are rushing to his defence while traditional tories are disowning him.

That's how the GE2015 was won and, if it continues, the GE2020 will be won. Elections are won in the centre ground and Cameron and Osborne know that. Of course, should the Tories tack hard right after Leave wins the referendum, things may be different and we could even see a Labour/SNP/LibDem co-alition elected on a promise to abort the negotiations to leave. By this stage we will also understand better what Putin has done to exploit EU disarray.

No, they really are not. They are only won in the centre ground if you can keep your wing on board. If 20% of Tories, presumably those to the right of the party, peel off to the Kippers or stay at home, the Tories lose the next election. There might be more voters in the centre, but you are also competing with more parties for that vote.

Never going to happen. Anyone who votes UKIP may as well abstain.

Can I quote you on that after a narrow Remain win

If the rightmost fifth of the Tory voters stay at home, they still lose.

Sure you can. I stand by my prediction that UKIP are more likely to win less seats next GE than they are to win more.

Philip_Thompson said:

Indigo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Indigo said:

Rexel56 said:

blackburn63 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

blackburn63 said:

Plato_Says said:

It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.

What like US and UK planes bombing IS and our troops help plan and train local forces for ground operations?

If only Dave had thought of that...

Interesting that the liberal luvvie set are rushing to his defence while traditional tories are disowning him.

That's how the GE2015 was won and, if it continues, the GE2020 will be won. Elections are won in the centre ground and Cameron and Osborne know that. Of course, should the Tories tack hard right after Leave wins the referendum, things may be different and we could even see a Labour/SNP/LibDem co-alition elected on a promise to abort the negotiations to leave. By this stage we will also understand better what Putin has done to exploit EU disarray.

No, they really are not. They are only won in the centre ground if you can keep your wing on board. If 20% of Tories, presumably those to the right of the party, peel off to the Kippers or stay at home, the Tories lose the next election. There might be more voters in the centre, but you are also competing with more parties for that vote.

Never going to happen. Anyone who votes UKIP may as well abstain.

Can I quote you on that after a narrow Remain win

If the rightmost fifth of the Tory voters stay at home, they still lose.

Sure you can. I stand by my prediction that UKIP are more likely to win less seats next GE than they are to win more.

Next to zero chance of that, if, as is most likely, the referendum is a narrow Remain I can see a result something like Tories 33%, Labour 31%, UKIP 17% in 2020. That would be a swing of 4% from Tory to UKIP and 2% from Labour to UKIP and would see them win Thurrock and Thanet South and come close in Hartlepool and Boston