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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EU can’t have its Turkey and eat it

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  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,003

    Sean_F said:

    EPG said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:



    Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.

    The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was horrific. A necessary evil, IMHO, but still evil.
    Indeed. But the Japanese were not innocent victims. They had been perpetrating evil themselves on plenty of other countries for at least a decade before then.

    As you sow so shall you reap.
    The people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, ordinary Japanese/Korean civilians were innocent victims.
    Once you get into the realm of total war with conscription the difference between service personnel and civilians becomes a bit blurred, doesn't it? Who is the innocent in this chain, the person who works at making guns, the person who has been forced by government decree in to maintaining guns, the person who has similarly been forced into firing guns? All three are necessary if that country is to kill the opposing forces and so win the war but only two are in uniform and one of those is a non-combatant.

    I agree with Sherman, War is hell, and total war is probably the seventh circle under the pit. However if you kick one off then don't be surprised if the other side use whatever means they can to try and win. St Augustine of Hippo and St Thomas Aquinas were writing in a very different age when war was a very different thing to that experience in, say, WW2.
    IMHO, Just War doctrines have held up very well over the centuries. Medieval warfare could be just as total as modern warfare (eg when cities were besieged).
    Having studied Just War Theory I reached the conclusion that the only consistent positions to hold are pacifism and total war. Anything in between is compromise and fudge, such as Churchill justifying the bombing of German cities.

    Taking a position of non - aggression, but switching to total war (if necessary) if you are attacked would be my policy.
    That involves switching off your brain.

    The right policy is using the minimum force needed to get the job done. We didn't fire off Polaris when Argentina invaded the Falklands.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    F1: just working on a potential bet, but staggered that Ricciardo is shorter odds than Rosberg for the win. Rosberg has won every race he's finished (four). Ricciardo has won no races this season.

    It's a credible outcome, but shorter odds than Rosberg winning? Hmm.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited May 2016
    SandraM said:

    dr_spyn said:
    It's trending on twitter and many are saying that it is one of the most rational pieces to have come out of the debate so far.
    Delia will be standing as a Parliamentary candidate next ..... I'm sure her esteemed colleague on the Norwich City Board would be able to point her in the right direction.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Postal vote pack has just arrived.

    Am hugely unimpressed by the wild claims from Remand and Leave camps. Had hoped Cameron might have spelt out a more positive vision.

    It will be interesting to know what proportion of voters had postal votes, and the speed at which they returned them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2016
    Meantime trouble at mill in Greece...

    Aside from online gambling, the Greek government is also expected to impose similar duty increases for operators working within the country’s heating oil, automotive, e-cigarette, pay-TV, coffee, luxury goods and alcohol industries.

    https://www.highstakesdb.com/6885-greek-government-increases-online-gambling-tax-to-35.aspx

    I am sure the Greek people will take increased cost of booze and coffee with a relaxed attitude when the cost to the companies are passed on to consumers.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    I did say "if necessary".

    I wouldn't advocate destroying the entire agressor nation and its population on day one, but we should be prepared to escalate to any level as necessary.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Betting Post

    F1: I may've missed something, but Rosberg's 6 for pole on Betfair. Backed that, hedged at 2.5.

    It seems very long to me.

    Worth bearing in mind I've got about 7/9 bets wrong this year, so keep that in mind.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Sanders looks to be trying to crash the Democrats if he doesn't get the nomination, which he obviously won't. Pretty stunning stuff.

    In what way? He has said he will fight until the last vote is counted, he has not promised to do anything more after beyond push his agenda into the platform
    He's started demanding senior democrats resign from party chairmanships otherwise he will grind the convention to a halt with procedural bollocks. One of the people he wants to step down, Barney Frank. This is obviously going down like a bag of sick with senior Democrats and activists alike .
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253

    Sean_F said:

    EPG said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:



    Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.

    The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was horrific. A necessary evil, IMHO, but still evil.
    Indeed. But the Japanese were not innocent victims. They had been perpetrating evil themselves on plenty of other countries for at least a decade before then.

    As you sow so shall you reap.
    The people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, ordinary Japanese/Korean civilians were innocent victims.
    Once you get into the realm of total war with conscription the difference between service personnel and civilians becomes a bit blurred, doesn't it? Who is the innocent in this chain, the person who works at making guns, the person who has been forced by government decree in to maintaining guns, the person who has similarly been forced into firing guns? All three are necessary if that country is to kill the opposing forces and so win the war but only two are in uniform and one of those is a non-combatant.

    I agree with Sherman, War is hell, and total war is probably the seventh circle under the pit. However if you kick one off then don't be surprised if the other side use whatever means they can to try and win. St Augustine of Hippo and St Thomas Aquinas were writing in a very different age when war was a very different thing to that experience in, say, WW2.
    IMHO, Just War doctrines have held up very well over the centuries. Medieval warfare could be just as total as modern warfare (eg when cities were besieged).
    Having studied Just War Theory I reached the conclusion that the only consistent positions to hold are pacifism and total war. Anything in between is compromise and fudge, such as Churchill justifying the bombing of German cities.

    Taking a position of non - aggression, but switching to total war (if necessary) if you are attacked would be my policy.
    The right policy is using the minimum force needed to get the job done. We didn't fire off Polaris when Argentina invaded the Falklands.
    As a Labour MP, possibly in his cups, said at the time

    'We should drop a big one on Rio - that would show the Argies!'

    'It certainly would - but mightn't it upset the Brazilians?'
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787


    In Vanished Kingdoms, there's a chapter on Montenegro, which was then ruled by a prince-bishop

    I think there's a reasonable possibility of a restoration of the Kingdom of Montenegro and Crown Prince Nicholas becoming monarch.

    The biggest stumbling blocks appear not to be any anti royal sentiment but rather disputes about the return of confiscated properties during the Yugoslav monarchy and Communist regimes and the new constitutional role.



  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. W, hopefully that can come about.

    I wonder if Greece will return to monarchy.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Mr. W, hopefully that can come about.

    I wonder if Greece will return to monarchy.

    Only if Angela Merkel want it .... :smiley:
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. W, I meant a Greek monarchy, not a German one...
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301

    SandraM said:

    dr_spyn said:
    It's trending on twitter and many are saying that it is one of the most rational pieces to have come out of the debate so far.
    Delia will be standing as a Parliamentary candidate next ..... I'm sure her esteemed colleague on the Norwich City Board would be able to point her in the right direction.
    Wonder if he wrote the piece for her?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Sanders looks to be trying to crash the Democrats if he doesn't get the nomination, which he obviously won't. Pretty stunning stuff.

    In what way? He has said he will fight until the last vote is counted, he has not promised to do anything more after beyond push his agenda into the platform
    He's started demanding senior democrats resign from party chairmanships otherwise he will grind the convention to a halt with procedural bollocks. One of the people he wants to step down, Barney Frank. This is obviously going down like a bag of sick with senior Democrats and activists alike .
    Well considering he has over 2500 delegates behind him at the convention it is not surprising he will try and use them to get some leverage. There will likely be lively happenings at both conventions, at the GOP convention there will almost certainly be riots outside, inside should be calmer (though half the GOP establishment will boycott it), while on the Democratic side Sanders supporters will be a vocal presence and push hard to get their agenda on the platform
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The funniest thing I've read on here is that Turkey should become secular. Yeah, and put the tooth fairy in charge.

    Kemal Ataturk did secularize Turkish institutions*, including ending the caliphate, adopting western dress and the Roman alphabet. He was rather a fascist in many ways, but is still heavily respected there. A revival of Ataturkism is the best hope for a secularist Turkey, though a slightly more democratic version would be in keeping with the times.

    *amongst many other things including killing my grandmothers uncle via his counterattack at Gallipoli.
    The trend in the Islamic world seems to be away from secularisation and towards more Islamization and one can even see this in some of the younger generations within Muslim communities within Europe. It think it is deluded to think that we will get a secular democratic Turkey in the way we understand it any time soon.
    Certainly that is the trend at present, particularly since the fall of the Communist bloc.

    There is a considerable secularist faction in most Muslim countries and populations though, and not inconceivable that the tide will change back in that direction. Pretty unpleasant secularists like Assad, Mubarak or Saddam Hussain by and large, but not the existential threat that Islamism could be.

    The EU and NATO made a huge mistake in not intervening far sooner in Bisnia. That failure did two things: (1) it helped build a narrative of the west not caring about Moslems; and (2) it began a trend of young Moslems going off to fight for Islam.

    But despite the fact that the US did push for action to protect the Muslim population and eventually got their way they still get no credit from the Muslim world. So one is inclined to think that those seeking to justify young Muslims going off to fight pick only those events which justify what they want to do and ignore those facts which don't suit their narrative.

    Not seeking to justify it in any way. Just saying that it came from somewhere and that if different decisions had been made in the past things may well have turned out differently. St

    Agreed. Britain's role was particularly shameful. And as for Douglad Hurd's justifications for denying the Bosnians the arms to defend themselves .... Yuck!
    It is not in our national interest to get directly involved in civil wars unless 1 side is a direct threat to our national security eg harbouring and encouraging terrorism against the west
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Mr. W, I meant a Greek monarchy, not a German one...

    How the hell could you tell the difference with all the monarchies in Europe descended from Queen Victoria via the usurper George Elector of Hanover from 1714
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Sean_F said:

    EPG said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:



    Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.

    The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was horrific. A necessary evil, IMHO, but still evil.
    Indeed. But the Japanese were not innocent victims. They had been perpetrating evil themselves on plenty of other countries for at least a decade before then.

    As you sow so shall you reap.
    The people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, ordinary Japanese/Korean civilians were innocent victims.
    Once you get into the realm of total war with conscription the difference between service personnel and civilians becomes a bit blurred, doesn't it? Who is the innocent in this chain, the person who works at making guns, the person who has been forced by government decree in to maintaining guns, the person who has similarly been forced into firing guns? All three are necessary if that country is to kill the opposing forces and so win the war but only two are in uniform and one of those is a non-combatant.

    I agree with Sherman, War is hell, and total war is probably the seventh circle under the pit. However if you kick one off then don't be surprised if the other side use whatever means they can to try and win. St Augustine of Hippo and St Thomas Aquinas were writing in a very different age when war was a very different thing to that experience in, say, WW2.
    IMHO, Just War doctrines have held up very well over the centuries. Medieval warfare could be just as total as modern warfare (eg when cities were besieged).
    Having studied Just War Theory I reached the conclusion that the only consistent positions to hold are pacifism and total war. Anything in between is compromise and fudge, such as Churchill justifying the bombing of German cities.

    Taking a position of non - aggression, but switching to total war (if necessary) if you are attacked would be my policy.
    That involves switching off your brain.

    The right policy is using the minimum force needed to get the job done. We didn't fire off Polaris when Argentina invaded the Falklands.
    We lost 255 men and some ships IIRC - A Polaris at Argentina would have saved them - OK it would have killed a few more (million) Argentinians but you can't make an omelette without breaking eggs.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,934
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The funniest thing I've read on here is that Turkey should become secular. Yeah, and put the tooth fairy in charge.

    Kemal Ataturk did secularize Turkish institutions*, including ending the caliphate, adopting western dress and the Roman alphabet. He was rather a fascist in many ways, but is still heavily respected there. A revival of Ataturkism is the best hope for a secularist Turkey, though a slightly more democratic version would be in keeping with the times.

    *amongst many other things including killing my grandmothers uncle via his counterattack at Gallipoli.
    The trend in the Islamic world seems to be away from secularisation and towards more Islamization and one can even see this in some of the younger generations within Muslim communities within Europe. It think it is deluded to think that we will get a secular democratic Turkey in the way we understand it any time soon.
    Certainly that is the trend at present, particularly since the fall of the Communist bloc.

    There is a considerable secularist faction in most Muslim countries and populations though, and not inconceivable that the tide will change back in that direction. Pretty unpleasant secularists like Assad, Mubarak or Saddam Hussain by and large, but not the existential threat that Islamism could be.

    The EU and NATO made a huge mistake in not intervening far sooner in Bisnia. That failure did two things: (1) it helped build a narrative of the west not caring about Moslems; and (2) it began a trend of young Moslems going off to fight for Islam.

    But despite the fact that the US did push for action to protect the Muslim population and eventually got their way they still get no credit from the Muslim world. So one is inclined to think that those seeking to justify young Muslims going off to fight pick only those events which justify what they want to do and ignore those facts which don't suit their narrative.
    Yes, the idea that earlier intervention would have earned any gratitude from the wider Muslim world is fanciful.

    The biggest mistake was rubbing Russia's nose in its impotence.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2016

    MikeK said:

    To all those concerned. (see post at 10:40am)
    The RAF has carried out less than 50 sorties in Syria - that for the uninitiated - is less than 50 bomb loads in all the months since Cammo gave the go ahead to bomb Isil in Syria as well as Irak.

    Must be a shortage of bombs somewhere. In the same months Russia carried out more than 4.5K sorties.

    What utter bollocks. @SquareRoot.

    Get your facts right before spreading bollocks all over the place @SquareRoot.

    British warplanes hit Isis targets in Syria just four times in five weeks
    Government statistics show a steep decline in air strikes since the start of the year

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/uk-raf-planes-launch-four-airstrikes-in-five-weeks-on-isis-in-syria-a6987326.html
    Its the shortage of bombs that's bollocks and your suggestion and implication that the RAF isn't doing enough..

    There is not enough ordnance in the theatre, and the RAF is not doing enough. I cannot say it plainer than that. The fact that you refute it doesn't make it less true.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    The 3rd umpire doing the reviews for the Test Match is great...

    He is an aussie and he sounds more like a fan watching the game than an umpire...Oh Yeahhh ohhhhh yeahhh mate, that was big inside edge mate, yeahhh...better give him not out.
  • Betting Post

    F1: I may've missed something, but Rosberg's 6 for pole on Betfair. Backed that, hedged at 2.5.

    It seems very long to me.

    Worth bearing in mind I've got about 7/9 bets wrong this year, so keep that in mind.

    Ah, but what about the other two!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Cyclefree said:


    The trend in the Islamic world seems to be away from secularisation and towards more Islamization and one can even see this in some of the younger generations within Muslim communities within Europe. It think it is deluded to think that we will get a secular democratic Turkey in the way we understand it any time soon.

    Not sure that's supported by the evidence - Iran seems to be reacting against the extremes and even Saudi is shifting a bit. The recent poll of young people across the Arab world showed a strong aversion to the extent of religious influence.

    What undoubtedly is happening is a level of popular exasperation with abstract liberal ideals that don't actually deliver a working society with tangible benefits. I think people are mostly prepared to put up with most ideologies if the rulers deliver the goods - that's why most people in China seem OK with the overall situation, it may be pretty corrupt and obscure but hey, we're much better off than 10 years ago. In Turkey, Erdogan enjoys a degree of popularity on a similar basis to Putin - he's seen as a tough bloke who stands up for the country and gets stuff done, and if he does things to make the islamists happy, well, OK. If that ceases to be the perception, he and his islamist backers will be in trouble.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Sanders looks to be trying to crash the Democrats if he doesn't get the nomination, which he obviously won't. Pretty stunning stuff.

    In what way? He has said he will fight until the last vote is counted, he has not promised to do anything more after beyond push his agenda into the platform
    He's started demanding senior democrats resign from party chairmanships otherwise he will grind the convention to a halt with procedural bollocks. One of the people he wants to step down, Barney Frank. This is obviously going down like a bag of sick with senior Democrats and activists alike .
    Well considering he has over 2500 delegates behind him at the convention it is not surprising he will try and use them to get some leverage. There will likely be lively happenings at both conventions, at the GOP convention there will almost certainly be riots outside, inside should be calmer (though half the GOP establishment will boycott it), while on the Democratic side Sanders supporters will be a vocal presence and push hard to get their agenda on the platform
    Making Barney Frank the target is idiotic, he's a darling of the left.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896
    JackW said:

    Mr. W, I meant a Greek monarchy, not a German one...

    How the hell could you tell the difference with all the monarchies in Europe descended from Queen Victoria via the usurper George Elector of Hanover from 1714
    Shouldn’t that be the other way round?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Sanders looks to be trying to crash the Democrats if he doesn't get the nomination, which he obviously won't. Pretty stunning stuff.

    In what way? He has said he will fight until the last vote is counted, he has not promised to do anything more after beyond push his agenda into the platform
    He's started demanding senior democrats resign from party chairmanships otherwise he will grind the convention to a halt with procedural bollocks. One of the people he wants to step down, Barney Frank. This is obviously going down like a bag of sick with senior Democrats and activists alike .
    Well considering he has over 2500 delegates behind him at the convention it is not surprising he will try and use them to get some leverage. There will likely be lively happenings at both conventions, at the GOP convention there will almost certainly be riots outside, inside should be calmer (though half the GOP establishment will boycott it), while on the Democratic side Sanders supporters will be a vocal presence and push hard to get their agenda on the platform
    Making Barney Frank the target is idiotic, he's a darling of the left.
    Well if he is such a darling of Democratic activists then he will get re-elected won't he!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    My Veep tip in to 21, from 85 on BF (been trading around 50 previously)...
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    @HYUFD
    It is not in our national interest to get directly involved in civil wars unless 1 side is a direct threat to our national security eg harbouring and encouraging terrorism against the west
    -------------
    More bollocks from a Cammo supporter. The one hard fact from the Balkan wars is that Kosovo has become an Islamic enclave in Serbia. How marvelous an outcome from Nato & EU meddling.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807

    It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

    Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

    Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

    Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.
    What like US and UK planes bombing IS and our troops help plan and train local forces for ground operations?

    If only Dave had thought of that...

    Interesting that the liberal luvvie set are rushing to his defence while traditional tories are disowning him.
    That's how the GE2015 was won and, if it continues, the GE2020 will be won. Elections are won in the centre ground and Cameron and Osborne know that. Of course, should the Tories tack hard right after Leave wins the referendum, things may be different and we could even see a Labour/SNP/LibDem co-alition elected on a promise to abort the negotiations to leave. By this stage we will also understand better what Putin has done to exploit EU disarray.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    @NickPalmer
    Not sure that's supported by the evidence - Iran seems to be reacting against the extremes and even Saudi is shifting a bit. The recent poll of young people across the Arab world showed a strong aversion to the extent of religious influence.
    --------
    I see that Nick is in his cups again if he believes the rubbish he wrote, above.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,934
    edited May 2016
    MikeK said:

    More bollocks from a Cammo supporter. The one hard fact from the Balkan wars is that Kosovo has become an Islamic enclave in Serbia. How marvelous an outcome from Nato & EU meddling.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/22/world/europe/how-the-saudis-turned-kosovo-into-fertile-ground-for-isis.html
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2016
    MikeK said:

    There is not enough ordnance in the theatre, and the RAF is not doing enough. I cannot say it plainer than that. The fact that you refute it doesn't make it less true.

    I refute it there is plenty of ordinance in the theatre as demonstrated by the fact ISIS are now full on in retreat unlike before. We need smartly targeted ordinance not lots of it. We are doing what is appropriate and even better than that it is working so far.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    JackW said:

    Mr. W, I meant a Greek monarchy, not a German one...

    How the hell could you tell the difference with all the monarchies in Europe descended from Queen Victoria via the usurper George Elector of Hanover from 1714
    Shouldn’t that be the other way round?
    Come, come, JackW. George Elector of Hanover was invited by the English great and good to take over the British Monarchy, while the heavy heel of the redcoats (mainly German mercenaries) was on every Jacobins neck.

    Just be happy that the neck was not entirely broken, as it so easily could have been.
  • MikeK said:

    @NickPalmer
    Not sure that's supported by the evidence - Iran seems to be reacting against the extremes and even Saudi is shifting a bit. The recent poll of young people across the Arab world showed a strong aversion to the extent of religious influence.
    --------
    I see that Nick is in his cups again if he believes the rubbish he wrote, above.

    Iran is a very democratic country by the standards of that part of the world, and I suspect going forward a rather more stable potential ally than Saudi.
  • MikeK said:

    JackW said:

    Mr. W, I meant a Greek monarchy, not a German one...

    How the hell could you tell the difference with all the monarchies in Europe descended from Queen Victoria via the usurper George Elector of Hanover from 1714
    Shouldn’t that be the other way round?
    Come, come, JackW. George Elector of Hanover was invited by the English great and good to take over the British Monarchy, while the heavy heel of the redcoats (mainly German mercenaries) was on every Jacobins neck.

    Just be happy that the neck was not entirely broken, as it so easily could have been.
    As an avowed Eurosceptic I call for recognition of our True Catholic King Francis II the Jacobite heir who is er..Franz Bonaventura Adalbert Maria Herzog von Bayern the er Duke of Bavaria

    Shurely shome mishtake?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Rexel56 said:

    It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

    Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

    Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

    Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.
    What like US and UK planes bombing IS and our troops help plan and train local forces for ground operations?

    If only Dave had thought of that...

    Interesting that the liberal luvvie set are rushing to his defence while traditional tories are disowning him.
    That's how the GE2015 was won and, if it continues, the GE2020 will be won. Elections are won in the centre ground and Cameron and Osborne know that. Of course, should the Tories tack hard right after Leave wins the referendum, things may be different and we could even see a Labour/SNP/LibDem co-alition elected on a promise to abort the negotiations to leave. By this stage we will also understand better what Putin has done to exploit EU disarray.

    No, they really are not. They are only won in the centre ground if you can keep your wing on board. If 20% of Tories, presumably those to the right of the party, peel off to the Kippers or stay at home, the Tories lose the next election. There might be more voters in the centre, but you are also competing with more parties for that vote.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    There is not enough ordnance in the theatre, and the RAF is not doing enough. I cannot say it plainer than that. The fact that you refute it doesn't make it less true.

    I refute it there is plenty of ordinance in the theatre as demonstrated by the fact ISIS are now full on in retreat unlike before. We need smartly targeted ordinance not lots of it. We are doing what is appropriate and even better than that it is working so far.
    They are in retreat by Russian and American ordnance and Syrian, Kurdish and Iraki boots on the ground. Britain has a very feeble presence in comparison.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    MikeK said:

    There is not enough ordnance in the theatre, and the RAF is not doing enough. I cannot say it plainer than that. The fact that you refute it doesn't make it less true.

    I refute it there is plenty of ordinance in the theatre as demonstrated by the fact ISIS are now full on in retreat unlike before. We need smartly targeted ordinance not lots of it. We are doing what is appropriate and even better than that it is working so far.
    Whatever IT is, we are only doing 8% of IT, but it still comes to more missions that has been suggested, but 8% doesn't sound that earth shattering as a proportion, not compared to the amount of crowing about it that is being done.

    This report on the subject from an authoritative source is only 4 days old:

    http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06995
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    MikeK said:

    @HYUFD
    It is not in our national interest to get directly involved in civil wars unless 1 side is a direct threat to our national security eg harbouring and encouraging terrorism against the west
    -------------
    More bollocks from a Cammo supporter. The one hard fact from the Balkan wars is that Kosovo has become an Islamic enclave in Serbia. How marvelous an outcome from Nato & EU meddling.

    The Kosovo campaign was not directly in our national interest no, rather like intervening in Libya against Gaddaffi the alleged motive of attempting to stop a massacre only created a terrorist haven.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Indigo said:

    Rexel56 said:

    It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

    Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

    Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

    Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.
    What like US and UK planes bombing IS and our troops help plan and train local forces for ground operations?

    If only Dave had thought of that...

    Interesting that the liberal luvvie set are rushing to his defence while traditional tories are disowning him.
    That's how the GE2015 was won and, if it continues, the GE2020 will be won. Elections are won in the centre ground and Cameron and Osborne know that. Of course, should the Tories tack hard right after Leave wins the referendum, things may be different and we could even see a Labour/SNP/LibDem co-alition elected on a promise to abort the negotiations to leave. By this stage we will also understand better what Putin has done to exploit EU disarray.

    No, they really are not. They are only won in the centre ground if you can keep your wing on board. If 20% of Tories, presumably those to the right of the party, peel off to the Kippers or stay at home, the Tories lose the next election. There might be more voters in the centre, but you are also competing with more parties for that vote.
    Never going to happen. Anyone who votes UKIP may as well abstain.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited May 2016

    Indigo said:

    Rexel56 said:

    It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

    Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

    Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

    Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.
    What like US and UK planes bombing IS and our troops help plan and train local forces for ground operations?

    If only Dave had thought of that...

    Interesting that the liberal luvvie set are rushing to his defence while traditional tories are disowning him.
    That's how the GE2015 was won and, if it continues, the GE2020 will be won. Elections are won in the centre ground and Cameron and Osborne know that. Of course, should the Tories tack hard right after Leave wins the referendum, things may be different and we could even see a Labour/SNP/LibDem co-alition elected on a promise to abort the negotiations to leave. By this stage we will also understand better what Putin has done to exploit EU disarray.

    No, they really are not. They are only won in the centre ground if you can keep your wing on board. If 20% of Tories, presumably those to the right of the party, peel off to the Kippers or stay at home, the Tories lose the next election. There might be more voters in the centre, but you are also competing with more parties for that vote.
    Never going to happen. Anyone who votes UKIP may as well abstain.
    Can I quote you on that after a narrow Remain win ;)

    If the rightmost fifth of the Tory voters stay at home, they still lose.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    There is not enough ordnance in the theatre, and the RAF is not doing enough. I cannot say it plainer than that. The fact that you refute it doesn't make it less true.

    I refute it there is plenty of ordinance in the theatre as demonstrated by the fact ISIS are now full on in retreat unlike before. We need smartly targeted ordinance not lots of it. We are doing what is appropriate and even better than that it is working so far.
    They are in retreat by Russian and American ordnance and Syrian, Kurdish and Iraki boots on the ground. Britain has a very feeble presence in comparison.
    We are allied with the Americans and working in conjunction with them. So a success of our alliance is a success for us.
  • RodCrosby said:

    My Veep tip in to 21, from 85 on BF (been trading around 50 previously)...

    Indeed, she's 15 to buy now on the Betfair exchange, but why aren't the bookies joining in the fun?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited May 2016
    I missed this story - we've just had a people trafficker caught with 17 Albanians on a yatcht at Chichester marina.

    'Automatic weapons worth £100k seized from a British gang on a cruiser at Cuxton marina, near Rochester.

    22 assault rifles, nine sub-machineguns and 1,500 rounds of ammunition - from same European supplier as those used in Charlie Hebdo.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    There is not enough ordnance in the theatre, and the RAF is not doing enough. I cannot say it plainer than that. The fact that you refute it doesn't make it less true.

    I refute it there is plenty of ordinance in the theatre as demonstrated by the fact ISIS are now full on in retreat unlike before. We need smartly targeted ordinance not lots of it. We are doing what is appropriate and even better than that it is working so far.
    They are in retreat by Russian and American ordnance and Syrian, Kurdish and Iraki boots on the ground. Britain has a very feeble presence in comparison.
    We are allied with the Americans and working in conjunction with them. So a success of our alliance is a success for us.
    Geeeeeeeees! I give up. :sob:
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    My Veep tip in to 21, from 85 on BF (been trading around 50 previously)...

    Indeed, she's 15 to buy now on the Betfair exchange, but why aren't the bookies joining in the fun?
    With such an ostensibly wide field, perhaps you have to ask for a price?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    There is not enough ordnance in the theatre, and the RAF is not doing enough. I cannot say it plainer than that. The fact that you refute it doesn't make it less true.

    I refute it there is plenty of ordinance in the theatre as demonstrated by the fact ISIS are now full on in retreat unlike before. We need smartly targeted ordinance not lots of it. We are doing what is appropriate and even better than that it is working so far.
    They are in retreat by Russian and American ordnance and Syrian, Kurdish and Iraki boots on the ground. Britain has a very feeble presence in comparison.
    We are allied with the Americans and working in conjunction with them. So a success of our alliance is a success for us.
    Geeeeeeeees! I give up. :sob:
    Good. Best idea when your talking nonsense.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    RodCrosby said:

    My Veep tip in to 21, from 85 on BF (been trading around 50 previously)...

    Indeed, she's 15 to buy now on the Betfair exchange, but why aren't the bookies joining in the fun?
    It seemed a good tip to me so I put a tenner on in the forties.

    There isn't a lot of liquidity in that market though.
  • RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    My Veep tip in to 21, from 85 on BF (been trading around 50 previously)...

    Indeed, she's 15 to buy now on the Betfair exchange, but why aren't the bookies joining in the fun?
    With such an ostensibly wide field, perhaps you have to ask for a price?
    I've had a fiver's worth at a tad over 60/1 so I hope you're right. Despite her odds shortening quite dramatically the money on her is still modest ...... < £500 out of a total of £58K on the entire market.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    I missed this story - we've just had a people trafficker caught with 17 Albanians on a yatcht at Chichester marina.

    'Automatic weapons worth £100k seized from a British gang on a cruiser at Cuxton marina, near Rochester.

    22 assault rifles, nine sub-machineguns and 1,500 rounds of ammunition - from same European supplier as those used in Charlie Hebdo.

    What we all need, @Plato, is some good Kevlar armour just in case of stray bullets or shrapnel.

    There was a photo yesterday of French Police in their new armoured shoulder pieces confronting strikers. I bet that within 5 years most armies and police forces will have next to full body armour as de rigueur.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    MikeK said:

    I missed this story - we've just had a people trafficker caught with 17 Albanians on a yatcht at Chichester marina.

    'Automatic weapons worth £100k seized from a British gang on a cruiser at Cuxton marina, near Rochester.

    22 assault rifles, nine sub-machineguns and 1,500 rounds of ammunition - from same European supplier as those used in Charlie Hebdo.

    What we all need, @Plato, is some good Kevlar armour just in case of stray bullets or shrapnel.

    There was a photo yesterday of French Police in their new armoured shoulder pieces confronting strikers. I bet that within 5 years most armies and police forces will have next to full body armour as de rigueur.
    Also required by the French for minor disagreements between illegals immigrants...

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3613213/Calais-refugee-camp-reduced-ashes-hundreds-migrants-burn-tents-amid-brawl-human-trafficking-routes-Britain.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    I thought we hadn't heard from Hug-A-Hitler for a while...if I had to guess he will be the only one of the suspended that probably actually serves a significant time out in the cold (despite others saying a lot worse).
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Sean_F said:

    It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

    Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

    Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

    Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.
    The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was horrific. A necessary evil, IMHO, but still evil.
    It was the nature of war; a war that Japan brought on themselves. The bombings certainly saved many tens of thousands of allies lives - probably hundreds of thousands - and probably millions of Japanese ones given the state of near-famine the country was in in August 1945. They were certainly no worse than the Tokyo fire-bombing, which killed more people (not that anyone remembers that because it doesn't have political potency).

    The decision to drop the bombs was the right one. As such, no apology is needed. We can, however, regret the losses that war brings, just as we can put past hostility behind us.
    I have seen it suggested that the act of dropping the bomb was evil on the basis that Truman well knew that Japan was willing to surrender and that he was keen to use the terrible weapon as a warning to Stalin and the USSR.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Sanders looks to be trying to crash the Democrats if he doesn't get the nomination, which he obviously won't. Pretty stunning stuff.

    In what way? He has said he will fight until the last vote is counted, he has not promised to do anything more after beyond push his agenda into the platform
    He's started demanding senior democrats resign from party chairmanships otherwise he will grind the convention to a halt with procedural bollocks. One of the people he wants to step down, Barney Frank. This is obviously going down like a bag of sick with senior Democrats and activists alike .
    Well considering he has over 2500 delegates behind him at the convention it is not surprising he will try and use them to get some leverage. There will likely be lively happenings at both conventions, at the GOP convention there will almost certainly be riots outside, inside should be calmer (though half the GOP establishment will boycott it), while on the Democratic side Sanders supporters will be a vocal presence and push hard to get their agenda on the platform
    Making Barney Frank the target is idiotic, he's a darling of the left.
    Well if he is such a darling of Democratic activists then he will get re-elected won't he!
    This isn't about Sanders getting his issues on the platform, it's about him trying to block any nomination that isn't himself.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited May 2016
    MikeK said:

    Come, come, JackW. George Elector of Hanover was invited by the English great and good to take over the British Monarchy, while the heavy heel of the redcoats (mainly German mercenaries) was on every Jacobins neck.

    Just be happy that the neck was not entirely broken, as it so easily could have been.

    I am shocked and stunned at your comment @MikeK.

    Supporting a German takeover of Britain. UKIP members have been ritually disemboweled on Channel 5 for much less .... :sunglasses:
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Sorry Ken. No-one's listening to you anymore. Do yourself a favour and look after your newts.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Cyclefree said:


    The trend in the Islamic world seems to be away from secularisation and towards more Islamization and one can even see this in some of the younger generations within Muslim communities within Europe. It think it is deluded to think that we will get a secular democratic Turkey in the way we understand it any time soon.

    Not sure that's supported by the evidence - Iran seems to be reacting against the extremes and even Saudi is shifting a bit. The recent poll of young people across the Arab world showed a strong aversion to the extent of religious influence.

    What undoubtedly is happening is a level of popular exasperation with abstract liberal ideals that don't actually deliver a working society with tangible benefits. I think people are mostly prepared to put up with most ideologies if the rulers deliver the goods - that's why most people in China seem OK with the overall situation, it may be pretty corrupt and obscure but hey, we're much better off than 10 years ago. In Turkey, Erdogan enjoys a degree of popularity on a similar basis to Putin - he's seen as a tough bloke who stands up for the country and gets stuff done, and if he does things to make the islamists happy, well, OK. If that ceases to be the perception, he and his islamist backers will be in trouble.
    Yes, I think that is true. People are willing to put up with bad governments if they are becoming more prosperous, though soon tire of them when the economy sours, something that the Chinese Communists and Putin should watch out for. The "Arab Spring" was set off in Tunisia by the price of bread as I recall.

    The process of globalisation creates some winners, but also many losers and many just side-lined. 50 years ago these people turned to Communism or anti-colonial movements, but with both Communism and Colonialism rapidly fading from memory (and MENA countries have young populations) Islamism ticks many of the boxes with its vision of an end to foreign influence, brotherhood of believers and dislike of corruption by traditional elites. It has more than a superficial resemblance to the motivations of many right wing populists in the West, from Trumpism to Jobbik via UKIP.

    There are countertrends too, as the benefits of Western liberal capitalism spreads across the world. Soft power and the appeal of western culture, whether music, fashion, smartphones, or football is something we see even in the heart of IS, where fighters miss their trinkets and fastfood. This is the way to undermine Islamists, not bombing.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

    Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

    Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

    Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.
    The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was horrific. A necessary evil, IMHO, but still evil.
    It was the nature of war; a war that Japan brought on themselves. The bombings certainly saved many tens of thousands of allies lives - probably hundreds of thousands - and probably millions of Japanese ones given the state of near-famine the country was in in August 1945. They were certainly no worse than the Tokyo fire-bombing, which killed more people (not that anyone remembers that because it doesn't have political potency).

    The decision to drop the bombs was the right one. As such, no apology is needed. We can, however, regret the losses that war brings, just as we can put past hostility behind us.
    I have seen it suggested that the act of dropping the bomb was evil on the basis that Truman well knew that Japan was willing to surrender and that he was keen to use the terrible weapon as a warning to Stalin and the USSR.
    And to test the toy while there was still a chance...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Sanders looks to be trying to crash the Democrats if he doesn't get the nomination, which he obviously won't. Pretty stunning stuff.

    In what way? He has said he will fight until the last vote is counted, he has not promised to do anything more after beyond push his agenda into the platform
    He's started demanding senior democrats resign from party chairmanships otherwise he will grind the convention to a halt with procedural bollocks. One of the people he wants to step down, Barney Frank. This is obviously going down like a bag of sick with senior Democrats and activists alike .
    Well considering he has over 2500 delegates behind him at the convention it is not surprising he will try and use them to get some leverage. There will likely be lively happenings at both conventions, at the GOP convention there will almost certainly be riots outside, inside should be calmer (though half the GOP establishment will boycott it), while on the Democratic side Sanders supporters will be a vocal presence and push hard to get their agenda on the platform
    Making Barney Frank the target is idiotic, he's a darling of the left.
    Well if he is such a darling of Democratic activists then he will get re-elected won't he!
    This isn't about Sanders getting his issues on the platform, it's about him trying to block any nomination that isn't himself.
    Well nothing to stop him trying, I doubt he will succeed in most cases
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    To be fair when you have the leader of your party declare terrorists as friends and the next most senior person happy to also back terrorists and quote the words of mass murderers, not sure you can make moral judgements on others...
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2016
    JackW said:

    MikeK said:

    Come, come, JackW. George Elector of Hanover was invited by the English great and good to take over the British Monarchy, while the heavy heel of the redcoats (mainly German mercenaries) was on every Jacobins neck.

    Just be happy that the neck was not entirely broken, as it so easily could have been.

    I am shocked and stunned at your comment @MikeK.

    Supporting a German takeover of Britain. UKIP members have been ritually disemboweled on Channel 5 for much less .... :sunglasses:
    Except that I'm no longer a member of UKIP - quite good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Rexel56 said:

    It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

    Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

    Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

    Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.
    What like US and UK planes bombing IS and our troops help plan and train local forces for ground operations?

    If only Dave had thought of that...

    Interesting that the liberal luvvie set are rushing to his defence while traditional tories are disowning him.
    That's how the GE2015 was won and, if it continues, the GE2020 will be won. Elections are won in the centre ground and Cameron and Osborne know that. Of course, should the Tories tack hard right after Leave wins the referendum, things may be different and we could even see a Labour/SNP/LibDem co-alition elected on a promise to abort the negotiations to leave. By this stage we will also understand better what Putin has done to exploit EU disarray.

    No, they really are not. They are only won in the centre ground if you can keep your wing on board. If 20% of Tories, presumably those to the right of the party, peel off to the Kippers or stay at home, the Tories lose the next election. There might be more voters in the centre, but you are also competing with more parties for that vote.
    Never going to happen. Anyone who votes UKIP may as well abstain.
    Can I quote you on that after a narrow Remain win ;)

    If the rightmost fifth of the Tory voters stay at home, they still lose.
    More likely it would be like 2005, with the Tories still losing seats but largest party as the main opposition sees little rise in its voteshare, except with UKIP in place of the LDs
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    To be fair when you have the leader of your party declare terrorists as friends and the next most senior person happy to also back terrorists and quote the words of mass murderers, not sure you can make moral judgements on others...
    It's the kinder, gentler Noo Labour.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    I think we have probably got enough runs in the cricket now not to have to worry about Woakes sending down too many pies.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    To be fair when you have the leader of your party declare terrorists as friends and the next most senior person happy to also back terrorists and quote the words of mass murderers, not sure you can make moral judgements on others...
    It's the kinder, gentler Noo Labour.
    Don't you mean Neu Arbeitspartei ?
  • MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    There is not enough ordnance in the theatre, and the RAF is not doing enough. I cannot say it plainer than that. The fact that you refute it doesn't make it less true.

    I refute it there is plenty of ordinance in the theatre as demonstrated by the fact ISIS are now full on in retreat unlike before. We need smartly targeted ordinance not lots of it. We are doing what is appropriate and even better than that it is working so far.
    They are in retreat by Russian and American ordnance and Syrian, Kurdish and Iraki boots on the ground. Britain has a very feeble presence in comparison.
    Sounds a bit like what Happened to the nazis in world war 2
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    JackW said:

    MikeK said:

    Oh yes, Mr. JackW. Back to the drawing board with you! Your ARSE is blowing an ill wind. :D

    If you think presently my ARSE is "blowing an ill wind" then your general election forecast was a tornado of historic meteorological proportions.

    I cannot recall in detail, but did you predict the LibDem near wipeout and the Tory overall majority in 2015? Personally I had expected circa 20 LibDems to survive.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MikeK said:

    Except that I'm no longer a member of UKIP - quite good.

    Except as another organization was want to insist :

    "Once In Never Out" .... :astonished:

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

    Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

    Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

    Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.
    The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was horrific. A necessary evil, IMHO, but still evil.
    It was the nature of war; a war that Japan brought on themselves. The bombings certainly saved many tens of thousands of allies lives - probably hundreds of thousands - and probably millions of Japanese ones given the state of near-famine the country was in in August 1945. They were certainly no worse than the Tokyo fire-bombing, which killed more people (not that anyone remembers that because it doesn't have political potency).

    The decision to drop the bombs was the right one. As such, no apology is needed. We can, however, regret the losses that war brings, just as we can put past hostility behind us.
    I have seen it suggested that the act of dropping the bomb was evil on the basis that Truman well knew that Japan was willing to surrender and that he was keen to use the terrible weapon as a warning to Stalin and the USSR.
    The Atomic bombing wasn't the worst bombing raid on Japan, that was the firebombing of Tokyo on March 9 1945:

    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-09/tokyo-wwii-firebombing-remembered-70-years-on/6287486

    Hiroshima and Nagasaki would have had the same fate if not targets for the atom bombs. The battle of Okinawa had only ended on 2nd July, a month before the Hiroshima bombing, and suggested that the Japanese were in no mood to surrender, with fierce resistance to the end. I think there is very little evidence to believe that the Japanese were looking towards peace until the bombs were dropped.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,565

    Sorry Ken. No-one's listening to you anymore. Do yourself a favour and look after your newts.
    He still refuses to accept the actual history. Plainly he has 'lost it'.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2016
    justin124 said:

    JackW said:

    MikeK said:

    Oh yes, Mr. JackW. Back to the drawing board with you! Your ARSE is blowing an ill wind. :D

    If you think presently my ARSE is "blowing an ill wind" then your general election forecast was a tornado of historic meteorological proportions.

    I cannot recall in detail, but did you predict the LibDem near wipeout and the Tory overall majority in 2015? Personally I had expected circa 20 LibDems to survive.
    Jacks ARSE did have the LDs on about 30 and Tories on just over 300 as I recall. That underestimate was considerably more accurate than inferior pundits were predicting. RodCrosby being a notable exception. Indeed Jack vs Rod as tipster for POTUS is quite a battle of the tipster titans.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,565

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    My Veep tip in to 21, from 85 on BF (been trading around 50 previously)...

    Indeed, she's 15 to buy now on the Betfair exchange, but why aren't the bookies joining in the fun?
    With such an ostensibly wide field, perhaps you have to ask for a price?
    I've had a fiver's worth at a tad over 60/1 so I hope you're right. Despite her odds shortening quite dramatically the money on her is still modest ...... < £500 out of a total of £58K on the entire market.
    Which veep tip are we talking about: McSally?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    Sorry Ken. No-one's listening to you anymore. Do yourself a favour and look after your newts.
    He still refuses to accept the actual history. Plainly he has 'lost it'.
    Not lost the bottle though...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MikeK said:

    JackW said:

    MikeK said:

    Come, come, JackW. George Elector of Hanover was invited by the English great and good to take over the British Monarchy, while the heavy heel of the redcoats (mainly German mercenaries) was on every Jacobins neck.

    Just be happy that the neck was not entirely broken, as it so easily could have been.

    I am shocked and stunned at your comment @MikeK.

    Supporting a German takeover of Britain. UKIP members have been ritually disemboweled on Channel 5 for much less .... :sunglasses:
    Except that I'm no longer a member of UKIP - quite good.
    A number of PB Leavers seem to have become disenchanted with UKIP over the last year or so.

    Idols turn out to have feet of clay, I suppose.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    justin124 said:

    I cannot recall in detail, but did you predict the LibDem near wipeout and the Tory overall majority in 2015? Personally I had expected circa 20 LibDems to survive.

    No.

    From Autumn 2014 my ARSE detailed a drubbing for Ed and Con just short of a majority and held firm on that assessment through to polling day. The LibDem figure continued to decline but didn't account for the larger losses that pushed the Conservatives through to a majority.

    It's fair to say my ARSE came in for a caning from many quarters but blew most away in the end.

    My 2010 ARSE offering was more impressive. Only one out on Con numbers.

    ARSE4US has been the jewel in the crown. So impressive that the Smithsonian (Both the US variety and the Bedford one) have offered to exhibit my prodigious organ to the adoring masses. Presently modesty forbids .... Tis my only failing .... :smile:
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited May 2016

    Sorry Ken. No-one's listening to you anymore. Do yourself a favour and look after your newts.
    He still refuses to accept the actual history. Plainly he has 'lost it'.
    Not lost the bottle though...
    It'd be hard to find a drink if Ken and Junker beat you to the bar.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    MikeK said:

    JackW said:

    MikeK said:

    Come, come, JackW. George Elector of Hanover was invited by the English great and good to take over the British Monarchy, while the heavy heel of the redcoats (mainly German mercenaries) was on every Jacobins neck.

    Just be happy that the neck was not entirely broken, as it so easily could have been.

    I am shocked and stunned at your comment @MikeK.

    Supporting a German takeover of Britain. UKIP members have been ritually disemboweled on Channel 5 for much less .... :sunglasses:
    Except that I'm no longer a member of UKIP - quite good.
    A number of PB Leavers seem to have become disenchanted with UKIP over the last year or so.

    Idols turn out to have feet of clay, I suppose.
    The only thing we are more sure of is we are not voting for the Tories while either Cameron or Osborne are in charge ;)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    MikeK said:

    JackW said:

    MikeK said:

    Come, come, JackW. George Elector of Hanover was invited by the English great and good to take over the British Monarchy, while the heavy heel of the redcoats (mainly German mercenaries) was on every Jacobins neck.

    Just be happy that the neck was not entirely broken, as it so easily could have been.

    I am shocked and stunned at your comment @MikeK.

    Supporting a German takeover of Britain. UKIP members have been ritually disemboweled on Channel 5 for much less .... :sunglasses:
    Except that I'm no longer a member of UKIP - quite good.
    A number of PB Leavers seem to have become disenchanted with UKIP over the last year or so.

    Idols turn out to have feet of clay, I suppose.
    Not at all. From the very start I made clear that UKIP was a vehicle of convenience to force Cameron to give us a referendum even though he really didn't want to. It worked very well for that. Now that we have the referendum it has no further purpose in its current incarnation.

    If the vote should be for Remain then I would hope that Farage would finally be pushed aside and someone more sensible and less divisive would take over at which point UKIP would again have a purpose. There were no idols involved at all and in all my time as a member I never once voted for Farage as leader.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

    Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

    Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

    Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.
    The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was horrific. A necessary evil, IMHO, but still evil.
    It was the nature of war; a war that Japan brought on themselves. The bombings certainly saved many tens of thousands of allies lives - probably hundreds of thousands - and probably millions of Japanese ones given the state of near-famine the country was in in August 1945. They were certainly no worse than the Tokyo fire-bombing, which killed more people (not that anyone remembers that because it doesn't have political potency).

    The decision to drop the bombs was the right one. As such, no apology is needed. We can, however, regret the losses that war brings, just as we can put past hostility behind us.
    I have seen it suggested that the act of dropping the bomb was evil on the basis that Truman well knew that Japan was willing to surrender and that he was keen to use the terrible weapon as a warning to Stalin and the USSR.
    Nope. The Japanese were given the chance to surrender after the first bomb was dropped and still refused. The accounts and minutes of the meetings held at the highest level in Japan are still available showing they would not consider surrender either before or after Hiroshima.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    My Veep tip in to 21, from 85 on BF (been trading around 50 previously)...

    Indeed, she's 15 to buy now on the Betfair exchange, but why aren't the bookies joining in the fun?
    With such an ostensibly wide field, perhaps you have to ask for a price?
    I've had a fiver's worth at a tad over 60/1 so I hope you're right. Despite her odds shortening quite dramatically the money on her is still modest ...... < £500 out of a total of £58K on the entire market.
    Which veep tip are we talking about: McSally?
    Yes. I'm seldom impressed by modern politicians, American politicians, and most women politicians impress me even less.

    But McSally seems The Real Deal. Incredibly driven, not for advancement for its own sake, but to achieve things, usually standing alone against stupid authority and convention. She seems very sharp, yet also a warm and caring human being.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56lrXG8H9bE
    Her back story is courageous, exhilarating and inspiring, and as a freshman Congresswoman she is taking no prisoners on the Hill, making generals and admirals squirm under her forensic cross-examination...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Way to go Labour, way to go.

    http://order-order.com/2016/05/28/labour-reinstate-race-row-corbynista/

    Vile vile vile is the effluent that is coming to the surface now Corbyn and his merry band have taken control of the asylum.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

    Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

    Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

    Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.
    The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was horrific. A necessary evil, IMHO, but still evil.
    It was the nature of war; a war that Japan brought on themselves. The bombings certainly saved many tens of thousands of allies lives - probably hundreds of thousands - and probably millions of Japanese ones given the state of near-famine the country was in in August 1945. They were certainly no worse than the Tokyo fire-bombing, which killed more people (not that anyone remembers that because it doesn't have political potency).

    The decision to drop the bombs was the right one. As such, no apology is needed. We can, however, regret the losses that war brings, just as we can put past hostility behind us.
    I have seen it suggested that the act of dropping the bomb was evil on the basis that Truman well knew that Japan was willing to surrender and that he was keen to use the terrible weapon as a warning to Stalin and the USSR.
    Nope. The Japanese were given the chance to surrender after the first bomb was dropped and still refused. The accounts and minutes of the meetings held at the highest level in Japan are still available showing they would not consider surrender either before or after Hiroshima.
    The battles on the Japanese mainland would have been dreadful, given the figure for Okinawa. According to Wikipedia there was an estimated total of over 82,000 direct casualties on both sides; 14,009 Allied deaths (over 12,500 Americans killed or missing) and 77,166 Japanese soldiers, excluding those who died from their injuries later. No figures are given for supporting Japanese forces killed. Allied grave registration forces counted 110,071 dead bodies. 42,000 to 150,000 local civilians (including all male citizens over 18, and many drafted male and female students under age 18) were killed, committed suicide or went missing, a significant proportion of the estimated pre-war 300,000 local population
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    RodCrosby said:

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

    Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

    Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

    Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.
    The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was horrific. A necessary evil, IMHO, but still evil.
    It was the nature of war; a war that Japan brought on themselves. The bombings certainly saved many tens of thousands of allies lives - probably hundreds of thousands - and probably millions of Japanese ones given the state of near-famine the country was in in August 1945. They were certainly no worse than the Tokyo fire-bombing, which killed more people (not that anyone remembers that because it doesn't have political potency).

    The decision to drop the bombs was the right one. As such, no apology is needed. We can, however, regret the losses that war brings, just as we can put past hostility behind us.
    I have seen it suggested that the act of dropping the bomb was evil on the basis that Truman well knew that Japan was willing to surrender and that he was keen to use the terrible weapon as a warning to Stalin and the USSR.
    And to test the toy while there was still a chance...
    The toy was tested at Trinity - Hiroshima and Nagasaki were chosen because they were relatively undamaged so the propaganda effect of the bomb would be maximised.

    Nagasaki bomb was dropped to ensure that the Japanese would know that it was not just a 'freak of nature' or a multiple-plane raid.

    In a very old readers-digest book compilation a book of the month 'No High Ground' - suggests that the Japanese were considering what to do before the bombs were dropped - I can't remember the word used but it had two possible meanings - 'refrain from comment' or 'ignore' - and the latter one was chosen for the interpretation.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,152
    @david_herdson A very interesting & thoughtful article as usual - many thanks.

    Oh, and afternoon, all.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    My Veep tip in to 21, from 85 on BF (been trading around 50 previously)...

    Indeed, she's 15 to buy now on the Betfair exchange, but why aren't the bookies joining in the fun?
    With such an ostensibly wide field, perhaps you have to ask for a price?
    I've had a fiver's worth at a tad over 60/1 so I hope you're right. Despite her odds shortening quite dramatically the money on her is still modest ...... < £500 out of a total of £58K on the entire market.
    Which veep tip are we talking about: McSally?
    Yes. I'm seldom impressed by modern politicians, American politicians, and most women politicians impress me even less.

    But McSally seems The Real Deal. Incredibly driven, not for advancement for its own sake, but to achieve things, usually standing alone against stupid authority and convention. She seems very sharp, yet also a warm and caring human being.
    ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56lrXG8H9bE
    Her back story is courageous, exhilarating and inspiring, and as a freshman Congresswoman she is taking no prisoners on the Hill, making generals and admirals squirm under her forensic cross-examination...
    That is superb. Her voice almost catching seemed entirely genuine.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    JackW said:

    justin124 said:

    I cannot recall in detail, but did you predict the LibDem near wipeout and the Tory overall majority in 2015? Personally I had expected circa 20 LibDems to survive.

    No.

    From Autumn 2014 my ARSE detailed a drubbing for Ed and Con just short of a majority and held firm on that assessment through to polling day. The LibDem figure continued to decline but didn't account for the larger losses that pushed the Conservatives through to a majority.

    It's fair to say my ARSE came in for a caning from many quarters but blew most away in the end.

    My 2010 ARSE offering was more impressive. Only one out on Con numbers.

    ARSE4US has been the jewel in the crown. So impressive that the Smithsonian (Both the US variety and the Bedford one) have offered to exhibit my prodigious organ to the adoring masses. Presently modesty forbids .... Tis my only failing .... :smile:
    I seem to recall that you expected a continuation of the Coalition despite a sharp drop in LibDem MPs.I was more inclined to the view that there were a good few LibDems who would simply have refused to follow Clegg into a second Coalition - eg Pugh - Sanders - Kennedy - Farron - and a several others. As a result we might have seen separate groups of Coalition and Anti -Coalition LibDems sitting on opposite sides in the Commons - rather reminiscent of the Simonites and Samuelites in the 1930s.Faced with that prospect, I suspect Clegg would have backed down leaving Cameron to form a minority Government.
  • RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    My Veep tip in to 21, from 85 on BF (been trading around 50 previously)...

    Indeed, she's 15 to buy now on the Betfair exchange, but why aren't the bookies joining in the fun?
    With such an ostensibly wide field, perhaps you have to ask for a price?
    I've had a fiver's worth at a tad over 60/1 so I hope you're right. Despite her odds shortening quite dramatically the money on her is still modest ...... < £500 out of a total of £58K on the entire market.
    Which veep tip are we talking about: McSally?
    Yes. I'm seldom impressed by modern politicians, American politicians, and most women politicians impress me even less.

    But McSally seems The Real Deal. Incredibly driven, not for advancement for its own sake, but to achieve things, usually standing alone against stupid authority and convention. She seems very sharp, yet also a warm and caring human being.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56lrXG8H9bE
    Her back story is courageous, exhilarating and inspiring, and as a freshman Congresswoman she is taking no prisoners on the Hill, making generals and admirals squirm under her forensic cross-examination...
    Shadsy - If you're reading this, please would you consider including Col. McSally in Ladbrokes' Republican VP field, hopefully at somewhat more generous odds than 15 currently on offer with Betfair?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Floater said:

    Way to go Labour, way to go.

    http://order-order.com/2016/05/28/labour-reinstate-race-row-corbynista/

    Vile vile vile is the effluent that is coming to the surface now Corbyn and his merry band have taken control of the asylum.

    I can't wait to see the justification explaining away that Jews were behind the slave trade.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    MikeK said:

    JackW said:

    MikeK said:

    Come, come, JackW. George Elector of Hanover was invited by the English great and good to take over the British Monarchy, while the heavy heel of the redcoats (mainly German mercenaries) was on every Jacobins neck.

    Just be happy that the neck was not entirely broken, as it so easily could have been.

    I am shocked and stunned at your comment @MikeK.

    Supporting a German takeover of Britain. UKIP members have been ritually disemboweled on Channel 5 for much less .... :sunglasses:
    Except that I'm no longer a member of UKIP - quite good.
    A number of PB Leavers seem to have become disenchanted with UKIP over the last year or so.

    Idols turn out to have feet of clay, I suppose.
    Not at all. From the very start I made clear that UKIP was a vehicle of convenience to force Cameron to give us a referendum even though he really didn't want to. It worked very well for that. Now that we have the referendum it has no further purpose in its current incarnation.

    If the vote should be for Remain then I would hope that Farage would finally be pushed aside and someone more sensible and less divisive would take over at which point UKIP would again have a purpose. There were no idols involved at all and in all my time as a member I never once voted for Farage as leader.
    I know that you have never been a Faragist, but it is interesting to see that other Kippers are leaving the fold.

    Without claiming Jacks crown, I did call peak kipper after the 2014 Euros.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    My Veep tip in to 21, from 85 on BF (been trading around 50 previously)...

    Indeed, she's 15 to buy now on the Betfair exchange, but why aren't the bookies joining in the fun?
    With such an ostensibly wide field, perhaps you have to ask for a price?
    I've had a fiver's worth at a tad over 60/1 so I hope you're right. Despite her odds shortening quite dramatically the money on her is still modest ...... < £500 out of a total of £58K on the entire market.
    Which veep tip are we talking about: McSally?
    Yes. I'm seldom impressed by modern politicians, American politicians, and most women politicians impress me even less.

    But McSally seems The Real Deal. Incredibly driven, not for advancement for its own sake, but to achieve things, usually standing alone against stupid authority and convention. She seems very sharp, yet also a warm and caring human being.
    ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56lrXG8H9bE
    Her back story is courageous, exhilarating and inspiring, and as a freshman Congresswoman she is taking no prisoners on the Hill, making generals and admirals squirm under her forensic cross-examination...
    That is superb. Her voice almost catching seemed entirely genuine.
    She certainly spoke well in that piece - though I am not sure how self aware she is. While she gives examples of US casualties in Iraq whom she describes as 'defending freedom' , others might point out that they actually lost their lives ' participating in American led aggression '.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Hat tip Guido

    "Jackie Walker is the senior Momentum organiser who was suspended from the Labour Party for writing that “Jews” were the “chief financiers of the sugar and slave trade” and asking “what debt do we owe the Jews?”. She’s just been let back in – a Labour spokesman says:

    “Following the outcome of an investigation, Jacqueline Walker is no longer suspended and remains a member of the party."

    What a lovely party Corbyn leads. It is indicated some of the same members that are left in the party are tearing up their cards.

    No doubt Livingstone will be next to be readmitted.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735

    MikeK said:

    JackW said:

    MikeK said:

    Come, come, JackW. George Elector of Hanover was invited by the English great and good to take over the British Monarchy, while the heavy heel of the redcoats (mainly German mercenaries) was on every Jacobins neck.

    Just be happy that the neck was not entirely broken, as it so easily could have been.

    I am shocked and stunned at your comment @MikeK.

    Supporting a German takeover of Britain. UKIP members have been ritually disemboweled on Channel 5 for much less .... :sunglasses:
    Except that I'm no longer a member of UKIP - quite good.
    A number of PB Leavers seem to have become disenchanted with UKIP over the last year or so.

    Idols turn out to have feet of clay, I suppose.
    Not at all. From the very start I made clear that UKIP was a vehicle of convenience to force Cameron to give us a referendum even though he really didn't want to. It worked very well for that. Now that we have the referendum it has no further purpose in its current incarnation.

    If the vote should be for Remain then I would hope that Farage would finally be pushed aside and someone more sensible and less divisive would take over at which point UKIP would again have a purpose. There were no idols involved at all and in all my time as a member I never once voted for Farage as leader.
    I know that you have never been a Faragist, but it is interesting to see that other Kippers are leaving the fold.

    Without claiming Jacks crown, I did call peak kipper after the 2014 Euros.
    Rubbish, peak Kipper will be 2020 when UKIP will get about 17/18% of the vote, unless Leave win or Remain win a landslide we are nowhere near peak Kipper yet!
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    My Veep tip in to 21, from 85 on BF (been trading around 50 previously)...

    Indeed, she's 15 to buy now on the Betfair exchange, but why aren't the bookies joining in the fun?
    With such an ostensibly wide field, perhaps you have to ask for a price?
    I've had a fiver's worth at a tad over 60/1 so I hope you're right. Despite her odds shortening quite dramatically the money on her is still modest ...... < £500 out of a total of £58K on the entire market.
    Which veep tip are we talking about: McSally?
    Yes. I'm seldom impressed by modern politicians, American politicians, and most women politicians impress me even less.

    But McSally seems The Real Deal. Incredibly driven, not for advancement for its own sake, but to achieve things, usually standing alone against stupid authority and convention. She seems very sharp, yet also a warm and caring human being.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56lrXG8H9bE
    Her back story is courageous, exhilarating and inspiring, and as a freshman Congresswoman she is taking no prisoners on the Hill, making generals and admirals squirm under her forensic cross-examination...
    Very little information available on McSally's private life.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Rexel56 said:

    It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

    Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

    Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

    Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.
    What like US and UK planes bombing IS and our troops help plan and train local forces for ground operations?

    If only Dave had thought of that...

    Interesting that the liberal luvvie set are rushing to his defence while traditional tories are disowning him.
    That's how the GE2015 was won and, if it continues, the GE2020 will be won. Elections are won in the centre ground and Cameron and Osborne know that. Of course, should the Tories tack hard right after Leave wins the referendum, things may be different and we could even see a Labour/SNP/LibDem co-alition elected on a promise to abort the negotiations to leave. By this stage we will also understand better what Putin has done to exploit EU disarray.

    No, they really are not. They are only won in the centre ground if you can keep your wing on board. If 20% of Tories, presumably those to the right of the party, peel off to the Kippers or stay at home, the Tories lose the next election. There might be more voters in the centre, but you are also competing with more parties for that vote.
    Never going to happen. Anyone who votes UKIP may as well abstain.
    Can I quote you on that after a narrow Remain win ;)

    If the rightmost fifth of the Tory voters stay at home, they still lose.
    Sure you can. I stand by my prediction that UKIP are more likely to win less seats next GE than they are to win more.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    MikeK said:

    JackW said:

    MikeK said:

    Come, come, JackW. George Elector of Hanover was invited by the English great and good to take over the British Monarchy, while the heavy heel of the redcoats (mainly German mercenaries) was on every Jacobins neck.

    Just be happy that the neck was not entirely broken, as it so easily could have been.

    I am shocked and stunned at your comment @MikeK.

    Supporting a German takeover of Britain. UKIP members have been ritually disemboweled on Channel 5 for much less .... :sunglasses:
    Except that I'm no longer a member of UKIP - quite good.
    A number of PB Leavers seem to have become disenchanted with UKIP over the last year or so.

    Idols turn out to have feet of clay, I suppose.
    Not at all. From the very start I made clear that UKIP was a vehicle of convenience to force Cameron to give us a referendum even though he really didn't want to. It worked very well for that. Now that we have the referendum it has no further purpose in its current incarnation.

    If the vote should be for Remain then I would hope that Farage would finally be pushed aside and someone more sensible and less divisive would take over at which point UKIP would again have a purpose. There were no idols involved at all and in all my time as a member I never once voted for Farage as leader.
    I know that you have never been a Faragist, but it is interesting to see that other Kippers are leaving the fold.

    Without claiming Jacks crown, I did call peak kipper after the 2014 Euros.
    Rubbish, peak Kipper will be 2020 when UKIP will get about 17/18% of the vote, unless Leave win or Remain win a landslide we are nowhere near peak Kipper yet!
    Actually I could see a kipper revival if there was a Remain landslide, but if a narrow Remain win or a Leave win then I think that there would be a much more Eurosceptic Tory leader who would occupy a lot of kipper territory. I cannot see a moderate Remainer winning the leadership in those circumstances.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Rexel56 said:

    It's worth noting that Italy has had over 10k migrants arriving/delivered to their shores this week alone. That's 47k YTD.

    Along with the violent fuel protests in France, bulldozing Greek refugee camps and pix of overloaded boats crossing the Med - the EU looks like a complete out of control mess.

    Photo-ops of smooth suits at the G7 contrasts so strongly - it looks like fiddling with canapes whilst Rome burns.

    Did you see Obama cuddling that Japanese man? My contempt for these people knows no bounds, jetting round the world at our expense as thousands are being raped, tortured and murdered by ISIS and others. Gesture politics, that's all it is, why don't they actually do something useful.
    What like US and UK planes bombing IS and our troops help plan and train local forces for ground operations?

    If only Dave had thought of that...

    Interesting that the liberal luvvie set are rushing to his defence while traditional tories are disowning him.
    That's how the GE2015 was won and, if it continues, the GE2020 will be won. Elections are won in the centre ground and Cameron and Osborne know that. Of course, should the Tories tack hard right after Leave wins the referendum, things may be different and we could even see a Labour/SNP/LibDem co-alition elected on a promise to abort the negotiations to leave. By this stage we will also understand better what Putin has done to exploit EU disarray.

    No, they really are not. They are only won in the centre ground if you can keep your wing on board. If 20% of Tories, presumably those to the right of the party, peel off to the Kippers or stay at home, the Tories lose the next election. There might be more voters in the centre, but you are also competing with more parties for that vote.
    Never going to happen. Anyone who votes UKIP may as well abstain.
    Can I quote you on that after a narrow Remain win ;)

    If the rightmost fifth of the Tory voters stay at home, they still lose.
    Sure you can. I stand by my prediction that UKIP are more likely to win less seats next GE than they are to win more.
    Next to zero chance of that, if, as is most likely, the referendum is a narrow Remain I can see a result something like Tories 33%, Labour 31%, UKIP 17% in 2020. That would be a swing of 4% from Tory to UKIP and 2% from Labour to UKIP and would see them win Thurrock and Thanet South and come close in Hartlepool and Boston
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    My Veep tip in to 21, from 85 on BF (been trading around 50 previously)...

    Indeed, she's 15 to buy now on the Betfair exchange, but why aren't the bookies joining in the fun?
    With such an ostensibly wide field, perhaps you have to ask for a price?
    I've had a fiver's worth at a tad over 60/1 so I hope you're right. Despite her odds shortening quite dramatically the money on her is still modest ...... < £500 out of a total of £58K on the entire market.
    Which veep tip are we talking about: McSally?
    Yes. I'm seldom impressed by modern politicians, American politicians, and most women politicians impress me even less.

    But McSally seems The Real Deal. Incredibly driven, not for advancement for its own sake, but to achieve things, usually standing alone against stupid authority and convention. She seems very sharp, yet also a warm and caring human being.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56lrXG8H9bE
    Her back story is courageous, exhilarating and inspiring, and as a freshman Congresswoman she is taking no prisoners on the Hill, making generals and admirals squirm under her forensic cross-examination...
    Very little information available on McSally's private life.
    It looks like she doesn't have one, or it remains very private, just as it ought to.
This discussion has been closed.