politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Friday night BREXIT numbers – the polls and the betting

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

Just had a weird, epiphanic insight.

Everyone who supports REMAIN is a c*nt, as well as a traitor, with the possible - just POSSIBLE exception of Southam Observer. They are either old, bitter c*nts, or young, clueless c*nts, or maybe idiot careerist c*nts - but they are still c*nts.

Once you realise that, it all falls into place.

An epiphany is not the same as a delusion.

Keep taking the tablets.

Not sure it helps, but you're very definitely in the "idiot, careerist c*nt" bracket.

Does that actually help? I'm never entirely sure, when handing out this advice, but I live to serve.

Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life.

This medical advice comes free of charge.

SeanT is neither fat nor stupid. Crude insults of low cunning, expected nothing less from a Remainer.

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

Just had a weird, epiphanic insight.

Everyone who supports REMAIN is a c*nt, as well as a traitor, with the possible - just POSSIBLE exception of Southam Observer. They are either old, bitter c*nts, or young, clueless c*nts, or maybe idiot careerist c*nts - but they are still c*nts.

Once you realise that, it all falls into place.

An epiphany is not the same as a delusion.

Keep taking the tablets.

Not sure it helps, but you're very definitely in the "idiot, careerist c*nt" bracket.

Does that actually help? I'm never entirely sure, when handing out this advice, but I live to serve.

Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life.

This medical advice comes free of charge.

One of my favourite 'Animal House' quotes. Unfortunately having watched it at the age of 14 I now seem to have taken the flip side of that quote as a guiding principle for my life.

Golly

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-27/first-shocking-deposition-clinton-email-case-reveals-she-did-not-use-password

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

Just had a weird, epiphanic insight.

Everyone who supports REMAIN is a c*nt, as well as a traitor, with the possible - just POSSIBLE exception of Southam Observer. They are either old, bitter c*nts, or young, clueless c*nts, or maybe idiot careerist c*nts - but they are still c*nts.

Once you realise that, it all falls into place.

An epiphany is not the same as a delusion.

Keep taking the tablets.

Not sure it helps, but you're very definitely in the "idiot, careerist c*nt" bracket.

Does that actually help? I'm never entirely sure, when handing out this advice, but I live to serve.

Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life.

This medical advice comes free of charge.

One of my favourite 'Animal House' quotes. Unfortunately having watched it at the age of 14 I now seem to have taken the flip side of that quote as a guiding principle for my life.

Well spotted!

https://youtu.be/iKS0GVvoE9I

TOPPING said:

Tykejohnno said:

Plato_Says said:

https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/735772894567882752

Cameron is a lying cnut,I'm sure Mr Smithson can't argue with that.

Sadly it says more about the British electorate than it does about David Cameron. We have had an election in between with no particular change in immigration figures.

And Cameron again banging on about cutting immigration at the GE.

saddened said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

Just had a weird, epiphanic insight.

Everyone who supports REMAIN is a c*nt, as well as a traitor, with the possible - just POSSIBLE exception of Southam Observer. They are either old, bitter c*nts, or young, clueless c*nts, or maybe idiot careerist c*nts - but they are still c*nts.

Once you realise that, it all falls into place.

An epiphany is not the same as a delusion.

Keep taking the tablets.

Not sure it helps, but you're very definitely in the "idiot, careerist c*nt" bracket.

Does that actually help? I'm never entirely sure, when handing out this advice, but I live to serve.

Sean, you appear to be in need of cheering up. So in case you missed it have a look at this


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3612784/Captured-laughing-rapist-bragged-buying-blue-eyed-Yazidi-girls-500-ISIS-militant-taken-prisoner-Iraqi-forces-filmed-sex-slave-market.html

I believe it was you who had a major role in highlighting this tragedy.

Looks like he will "have a nice day".

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Casino_Royale said:

MikeSmithson said:

GIN1138 said:

dr_spyn said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 29s29 seconds ago
Exc: George Osborne (finally) to go head 2 head with Andrew Neil @afneil in #euref prime time. 7.30 BBC1 June 8 First face off as Chancellor
Popcorn.

Andrew Neil will destroy the little creep.

Osborne will do OK but your comment about him "being a creep" says more about you than him.

I have a very low opinion of George Osborne.

What? George has 2% of the voters thinking of him as a natural Leader.....
Charismatic? Also 2%.

It's amazing isn't it. The statistical chance of polling both his wife and his mum...

#trump

We need him here.

A man of the people

Decent values for decent people

TOPPING said:

Tykejohnno said:

Plato_Says said:

https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/735772894567882752

Cameron is a lying cnut,I'm sure Mr Smithson can't argue with that.

Sadly it says more about the British electorate than it does about David Cameron. We have had an election in between with no particular change in immigration figures.

Credit where credit is due (feeling generous tonight) we wouldn't have had a referendum with Ed Miliband, and he'd have had a far more naive approach to the migration crisis too.

But, that doesn't mean the British public were happy to vote for high net immigration.

Ave_it said:

GIN I am so pissed off with Osborne and Cameron who are utter ****s who.don't look after working class people, I am now voting Out!

I didn't vote conservative for these people built on mummy and daddy money to put up my taxes to pay for spongers and benefits!!!!

Cameron and Osborne really can Ave It - Right on the nose!

TCPoliticalBetting said:

peter_from_putney said:

blackburn63 said:

Plato_Says said:

dr_spyn said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 29s29 seconds ago
Exc: George Osborne (finally) to go head 2 head with Andrew Neil @afneil in #euref prime time. 7.30 BBC1 June 8 First face off as Chancellor
Popcorn.

Crikey
That's a shit or bust strategy

Wow, easy to read too much into this but the private polling must be dire, if they were comfortably ahead Osborne would smugly wave it away. Massive gamble.

Rather than seeing this as being a massive gamble by Osborne, I think it is more a case of him having an incredibly high opinion of his own intellect and thereby possessing a total and irrefutable grasp of all the issues relating to REMAIN being right as regards the EU referendum.
He probably imagines in his own mind that he can gobble up anything Andrew Neil can throw at him and spit it out .... he may yet prove to be very mistaken.

I agree. I am looking forward to it. Either way, Osborne will have to spend hours in preparation. All this Treasury shite will be dissected by Neil.

A similar gravity model would show incontrovertible gains from the UK joining the Euro. I expect it will be brought up.

Scott_P said:

BenedictWhite said:

Problem there is an athlete could easily be duped into buying the country when he thought he was buying a coffee.

Good point.

Berlin?

What happened after the last Berlin Olympics? Didn't end well did it?

SeanT said:

BenedictWhite said:

saddened said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

Just had a weird, epiphanic insight.

Everyone who supports REMAIN is a c*nt, as well as a traitor, with the possible - just POSSIBLE exception of Southam Observer. They are either old, bitter c*nts, or young, clueless c*nts, or maybe idiot careerist c*nts - but they are still c*nts.

Once you realise that, it all falls into place.

An epiphany is not the same as a delusion.

Keep taking the tablets.

Not sure it helps, but you're very definitely in the "idiot, careerist c*nt" bracket.

Does that actually help? I'm never entirely sure, when handing out this advice, but I live to serve.

Sean, you appear to be in need of cheering up. So in case you missed it have a look at this


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3612784/Captured-laughing-rapist-bragged-buying-blue-eyed-Yazidi-girls-500-ISIS-militant-taken-prisoner-Iraqi-forces-filmed-sex-slave-market.html

I believe it was you who had a major role in highlighting this tragedy.

Looks like he will "have a nice day".

How utterly splendid. I hope they very very very slowly torture him to death. Over decades.

They may not be that kind.

Plato_Says said:

Golly

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-27/first-shocking-deposition-clinton-email-case-reveals-she-did-not-use-password

This is just the beginning - there's plenty more to come. The FBI investigating VA. Gov. Terry McAuliffe for his time at Clinton Global Initiative, and the fact that more than 100 contributors gave both to the Foundation and his campaign fund, (the FBI investigating which started at the same time as the Clinton investigation), the Inspector General's report - there is plenty more.

Hillary has been saying she'll talk to anyone any time about her emails to clear it up - she and her senior assistants refused to cooperate with the IG's investigation into her department during her time there. Every other S of S cooperated.

Almost a salivation situation.

Mika Brzezinski (tough to spell, I couldn't even begin to spell her dad's name Zbigniew), host of Morning Joe and ardent Hillary supporter said on the show yesterday that it looked like Hillary had straight lied all the way through.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Playing back the Newsnight politics parts. Rees Mogg usual polite brilliance - I wonder how he is regarded by most voters? Chris Patten came across (to me) as just a nasty slug in the earlier interview.

Are there any non-sluggish europhile grandees?

Heath, Pym, Prior, Heseltine, Clarke, Patton, Mandelson, Blai..

No, clearly not.

Casino_Royale said:

blackburn63 said:

Plato_Says said:

dr_spyn said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 29s29 seconds ago
Exc: George Osborne (finally) to go head 2 head with Andrew Neil @afneil in #euref prime time. 7.30 BBC1 June 8 First face off as Chancellor

Popcorn.

Crikey

That's a shit or bust strategy

Wow, easy to read too much into this but the private polling must be dire, if they were comfortably ahead Osborne would smugly wave it away. Massive gamble.

Given Osborne's awful polling he means hasn't got a choice. If he does better than expected (low expectations) he'll be in a better place if there is a solid Remain win. If not, he can't really sink any further than 2%.

He has nothing to lose.

Agreed, this is about his personal ambitions rather than about the EU.

I wonder if Cameron has told him that he plans to step down before year end.

Quite a good piece from David Davis

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/27/britain-is-not-like-other-countries--even-the-sclerotic-eu-will/

David Davis said:

"We are the world’s fifth biggest economy. We are a permanent member of the UN Security Council. We are a leading member of Nato, of the Commonwealth, and of the G7. We are a member of the powerful Five Eyes intelligence network. We owe none of these things to the EU. We are the nation of Shakespeare and Newton, of Faraday and Rutherford, of Gladstone and Churchill. Our language is spoken by 1.5 billion people and is the international standard for science, engineering, medicine, on the internet, in modern film and media, in commerce and law. We have more reach and reputation and influence than any country of 60 million has a right to expect. And the Remain team want us to choose between being Norway and Switzerland?"

Makes a change to hear from a politician that doesn't think the UK is just a complete and utter waste of space...

Ave_it said:

#trump

We need him here.

A man of the people

Decent values for decent people

Sadly, I think Trump is likely to dismantle NATO, so he's probably more of a threat to the UK than the EU right now.

Scott_P said:

BenedictWhite said:

What happened after the last Berlin Olympics? Didn't end well did it?

Running out of options here.

Ok, we need to get away from Brazil to avoid sub-tropical mosquitoes.

Doh, it's so obvious.

Mexico City

Nah. They'll hold the American athletes hostage just in case Trump gets in.

GIN1138 said:

Quite a good piece from David Davis

You had me up until David Davis

"We are the world’s fifth biggest economy. We are a permanent member of the UN Security Council. We are a leading member of Nato, of the Commonwealth, and of the G7. We are a member of the powerful Five Eyes intelligence network. We owe none of these things to the EU. Being a member of the EU does not diminish any of these things. We are the nation of Shakespeare and Newton, of Faraday and Rutherford, of Gladstone and Churchill. Our language is spoken by 1.5 billion people and is the international standard for science, engineering, medicine, on the internet, in modern film and media, in commerce and law. We have more reach and reputation and influence than any country of 60 million has a right to expect.

And the Remain LEAVE team want us to choose between being Norway and Switzerland?"

rcs1000 said:

Ave_it said:

#trump

We need him here.

A man of the people

Decent values for decent people

Sadly, I think Trump is likely to dismantle NATO, so he's probably more of a threat to the UK than the EU right now.

Maybe he'll just dismantle OTAN, to get rid of the French. Who could object to that?

SeanT said:

TOPPING said:

SeanT said:

Just had a weird, epiphanic insight.

Everyone who supports REMAIN is a c*nt, as well as a traitor, with the possible - just POSSIBLE exception of Southam Observer. They are either old, bitter c*nts, or young, clueless c*nts, or maybe idiot careerist c*nts - but they are still c*nts.

Once you realise that, it all falls into place.

That's bad.

They are c*nts. But it's worse for you. You are ruled by c*nts.

Indubitably true. Albeit ripped off from *trainspotting*

It is weird tho, how, when you drill down, all the most committed REMAINIACS are total shits, c*nts and hypocrites. It's like a job requirement.

It reminded me of this.
Long stock and two shooting barrels - scene by Vinnie Jones. About 1 miniute in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDkKduNT684

david_herdson said:

BenedictWhite said:

Scott_P said:

BenedictWhite said:

I wonder where it could be held? Somewhere where a good Olympics were held?

Moscow?

Can you think of another? Moscow could be a tad embarrassing given that there will be no home competitors.

Paris? They wouldn't need an Olympic cauldron for the flame, they could get a few strikers to set fire to some tyres?

Yemen could probably do with a boost to its tourism.

Casino_Royale said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Playing back the Newsnight politics parts. Rees Mogg usual polite brilliance - I wonder how he is regarded by most voters? Chris Patten came across (to me) as just a nasty slug in the earlier interview.

Are there any non-sluggish europhile grandees?

Heath, Pym, Prior, Heseltine, Clarke, Patton, Mandelson, Blai..

No, clearly not.

Aren't some of those people dead.

rcs1000 said:

Ave_it said:

#trump

We need him here.

A man of the people

Decent values for decent people

Sadly, I think Trump is likely to dismantle NATO, so he's probably more of a threat to the UK than the EU right now.

Just looking at your Avi and thought about this, Mitt Romney was right about Putin and having more troops in Iraq (preventing the rise of Islamic State:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwQqNdkyZZo

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

Ave_it said:

#trump

We need him here.

A man of the people

Decent values for decent people

Sadly, I think Trump is likely to dismantle NATO, so he's probably more of a threat to the UK than the EU right now.

I think Trump is playing a smarter game on defence. He sees how much of a fiscal black hole it is for the US and wants NATO countries to stop free-riding on US defence capability. The same is true for a lot of the overseas bases, I expect that the Japanese and Korean governments are going to get a fairly hefty annual invoice for being their first line of defence against Chinese aggression.

But he's also said he wants to spend more on defence, a lot more. How much would be like from us and our European neighbours?

If we were faced with a bill of 1% of GDP for being a member of NATO and having American protection, there would be a lot of people who wouldn't like that. And it would fly even less well in Germany and France. Even Italy and Spain would object.

Donald Trump may well end up driving the European nations together.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Casino_Royale said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Playing back the Newsnight politics parts. Rees Mogg usual polite brilliance - I wonder how he is regarded by most voters? Chris Patten came across (to me) as just a nasty slug in the earlier interview.

Are there any non-sluggish europhile grandees?

Heath, Pym, Prior, Heseltine, Clarke, Patton, Mandelson, Blai..

No, clearly not.

Amazing how full of personal bile they all are. We have had Heseltine's splenetic attack on Boris and now fatty patty's. Just playing the man and not the ball.

As opposed to this site, where no one ever does that

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Playing back the Newsnight politics parts. Rees Mogg usual polite brilliance - I wonder how he is regarded by most voters? Chris Patten came across (to me) as just a nasty slug in the earlier interview.

Are there any non-sluggish europhile grandees?

Heath, Pym, Prior, Heseltine, Clarke, Patton, Mandelson, Blai..

No, clearly not.

Aren't some of those people dead.

That would explain the sluggishness

https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/736317752651157504

Plato_Says said:

https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/735772894567882752

Did the voters remember to sign their copy and send it back to the Conservative Party? If not, there was never a deal.

RodCrosby said:

I notice Trump mentioned problems with TSA at the end of his speech.

Who was forensically probing this question two days ago?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhrCyda5A7w

This can't be right. It is only hours since I bet on Ernst.

BenedictWhite said:

MTimT said:

david_herdson said:

BenedictWhite said:

Scott_P said:

BenedictWhite said:

I wonder where it could be held? Somewhere where a good Olympics were held?

Moscow?

Can you think of another? Moscow could be a tad embarrassing given that there will be no home competitors.

Paris? They wouldn't need an Olympic cauldron for the flame, they could get a few strikers to set fire to some tyres?

Yemen could probably do with a boost to its tourism.

That'd make the 100 meters exciting!

When I used to go to Yemen - back 20 years ago - it was said the only people who ran in that country were those who had just planted a bomb....

And yes, it was a country worthy of tourism. Sad.

rcs1000 said:

Ave_it said:

#trump

We need him here.

A man of the people

Decent values for decent people

Sadly, I think Trump is likely to dismantle NATO, so he's probably more of a threat to the UK than the EU right now.

Which threat is NATO currently protecting us from?

I think you'd be amazed how quickly relations between the EU and Russia would be transformed (for the better) by the dissolution of NATO.

MarqueeMark said:

BenedictWhite said:

MTimT said:

david_herdson said:

BenedictWhite said:

Scott_P said:

BenedictWhite said:

I wonder where it could be held? Somewhere where a good Olympics were held?

Moscow?

Can you think of another? Moscow could be a tad embarrassing given that there will be no home competitors.

Paris? They wouldn't need an Olympic cauldron for the flame, they could get a few strikers to set fire to some tyres?

Yemen could probably do with a boost to its tourism.

That'd make the 100 meters exciting!

When I used to go to Yemen - back 20 years ago - it was said the only people who ran in that country were those who had just planted a bomb....

And yes, it was a country worthy of tourism. Sad.

Absolutely. It has some amazingly tall ancient buildings still in use for a start.

RodCrosby said:

rottenborough said:

RodCrosby said:

I notice Trump mentioned problems with TSA at the end of his speech.

Who was forensically probing this question two days ago?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhrCyda5A7w

This can't be right. It is only hours since I bet on Ernst.

There are a lot of dots joining up that Trump is mentioning in his recent speeches...

Planes being serviced from scrapyards. (A10s for example)
Border Security (who is the Chair of Border and Maritime Security Subcommittee?)
The lawyer who vetted Palin - now tasked with vetting Trump's Veep - regretting Palin had no military or foreign policy experience.
Women Pilots, and Veterans (Who has just won a battle to permit women WW2 veterans to be buried in Arlington? The first US woman fighter-pilot combat veteran, McSally)
TSA (see below)

What better masterstroke could Trump play than:-

"OK, here's the story. Forget Crooked Hillary. Let me introduce to you, the woman who I hope and pray will one day be your first woman president. It's my privilege to introduce to you, my running mate, Martha McSally..."

It is worth remembering that - while border security and the wall get all the press - the vast majority of illegal aliens in the US are there by the simple expedient of overstaying their tourist visa.

kjohnw said:

With Cameron now admitting that uk could thrive outside EU (see express front page tomorrow) does make you wonder if he is preparing the ground for losing. Private polling must not be good

I have no idea what game he is playing.

Perhaps he wants out but thinks that he had to fight a hard fight to make it look like he wanted to remain so that it would be easier to negotiate an exit.

Perhaps he thinks he's gone to far on the doom?

Who knows what he believes today.

RodCrosby said:

rottenborough said:

RodCrosby said:

I notice Trump mentioned problems with TSA at the end of his speech.

Who was forensically probing this question two days ago?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhrCyda5A7w

This can't be right. It is only hours since I bet on Ernst.

There are a lot of dots joining up that Trump is mentioning in his recent speeches...

Very good points. She's got to be in his top two based on that.

williamglenn said:

RodCrosby said:

rottenborough said:

RodCrosby said:

I notice Trump mentioned problems with TSA at the end of his speech.

Who was forensically probing this question two days ago?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhrCyda5A7w

This can't be right. It is only hours since I bet on Ernst.

There are a lot of dots joining up that Trump is mentioning in his recent speeches...

Very good points. She's got to be in his top two based on that.

Still you can't beat Jeb Bush at 560/1.

On that note, I'm away to bed.

David Davis
To read the full transcript of my speech setting out the economic case for #Brexit, see: https://t.co/fMLIZ29dYh

A Going Concern.....

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-36397505

BenedictWhite said:

MarqueeMark said:

BenedictWhite said:

MTimT said:

david_herdson said:

BenedictWhite said:

Scott_P said:

BenedictWhite said:

I wonder where it could be held? Somewhere where a good Olympics were held?

Moscow?

Can you think of another? Moscow could be a tad embarrassing given that there will be no home competitors.

Paris? They wouldn't need an Olympic cauldron for the flame, they could get a few strikers to set fire to some tyres?

Yemen could probably do with a boost to its tourism.

That'd make the 100 meters exciting!

When I used to go to Yemen - back 20 years ago - it was said the only people who ran in that country were those who had just planted a bomb....

And yes, it was a country worthy of tourism. Sad.

Absolutely. It has some amazingly tall ancient buildings still in use for a start.

The mud skyscrapers are fun, but the truly cool stuff is at the Sabean sites. Mareb is well known, but the Wadi Jawf holds astonishing surprises, such as Baraqish.

Echoing Cyclefree's article.

http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/05/28/what-does-remain-look-like-2/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed:+JohnRedwoodsDiary+(John+Redwood's+Diary)

Alistair said:

Plato_Says said:

https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/736296345967988740

That's why I am so puzzled by playing the pension card so early by Cameron, loads of time for rebuttal

They probably wanted to use the "independent" analysis from the treasury

RobD said:

Quiet tonight! One presumes everyone is out on the lash

The leave supporters are busy answering online polls.

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

Ave_it said:

#trump

We need him here.

A man of the people

Decent values for decent people

Sadly, I think Trump is likely to dismantle NATO, so he's probably more of a threat to the UK than the EU right now.

I think Trump is playing a smarter game on defence. He sees how much of a fiscal black hole it is for the US and wants NATO countries to stop free-riding on US defence capability. The same is true for a lot of the overseas bases, I expect that the Japanese and Korean governments are going to get a fairly hefty annual invoice for being their first line of defence against Chinese aggression.

That's not very smart all, though. The US is not in Japan, Korea or elsewhere to protect local interests, but to protect US ones.

Brexit supporters make some 'best guesses' about what they think will be the nett effect of leaving will be in 5 or 10 years time.

Have you ever heard a 'Remainer' describing the sunny uplands that the EU will be representing over the next 10 years?

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

Ave_it said:

#trump

We need him here.

A man of the people

Decent values for decent people

Sadly, I think Trump is likely to dismantle NATO, so he's probably more of a threat to the UK than the EU right now.

I think Trump is playing a smarter game on defence. He sees how much of a fiscal black hole it is for the US and wants NATO countries to stop free-riding on US defence capability. The same is true for a lot of the overseas bases, I expect that the Japanese and Korean governments are going to get a fairly hefty annual invoice for being their first line of defence against Chinese aggression.

That's not very smart all, though. The US is not in Japan, Korea or elsewhere to protect local interests, but to protect US ones.

Yes, and the attraction of US-provided defence is precisely that it is cheap. If Trump makes it expensive there's no reason why those countries, and those in Europe, won't just spend the extra money on their own forces. Which will lead to greatly diminished US influence.