Sadly, I think Trump is likely to dismantle NATO, so he's probably more of a threat to the UK than the EU right now.
I think Trump is playing a smarter game on defence. He sees how much of a fiscal black hole it is for the US and wants NATO countries to stop free-riding on US defence capability. The same is true for a lot of the overseas bases, I expect that the Japanese and Korean governments are going to get a fairly hefty annual invoice for being their first line of defence against Chinese aggression.
That's not very smart all, though. The US is not in Japan, Korea or elsewhere to protect local interests, but to protect US ones.
Yes, and the attraction of US-provided defence is precisely that it is cheap. If Trump makes it expensive there's no reason why those countries, and those in Europe, won't just spend the extra money on their own forces. Which will lead to greatly diminished US influence.
Presumably they won't be that stupid. It will be a contribution, not shouldering the whole cost. If the US issued a bill for the equivalent of say 30% of what it costs them, those other countries would be in no way able to provide the equivalent power themselves at the price, assuming they had access to the technology, which many of them don't.
I suspect Osborne going up against Andrew Neil is less about the EU referendum and more about the Tory leadership contest to come. It contrasts with Boris not going up against Andrew Neil.
He better hope for a good performance then, if Neil eats him for breakfast, Boris will be seen to have made the wiser choice!
A dead heat or tiny (on average) Leave advantage online, but a substantially (relatively) better picture for Remain over the electric telephone.
Hmm. Still very hard to call. We'll see how the pensions screaming on either side goes.
On that, the Daily Mail headline is quite special. As is begrudgingly admitted in the last line, the scare story it is trying to run has been specifically ruled out.
Sadly, I think Trump is likely to dismantle NATO, so he's probably more of a threat to the UK than the EU right now.
I think Trump is playing a smarter game on defence. He sees how much of a fiscal black hole it is for the US and wants NATO countries to stop free-riding on US defence capability. The same is true for a lot of the overseas bases, I expect that the Japanese and Korean governments are going to get a fairly hefty annual invoice for being their first line of defence against Chinese aggression.
That's not very smart all, though. The US is not in Japan, Korea or elsewhere to protect local interests, but to protect US ones.
But they also protect Japanese, Korean and elsewhere interests in passing, why should they get it for free without contributing to the cost ?
The people of Okinawa would dispute the idea that the US presence is without cost.
Sadly, I think Trump is likely to dismantle NATO, so he's probably more of a threat to the UK than the EU right now.
I think Trump is playing a smarter game on defence. He sees how much of a fiscal black hole it is for the US and wants NATO countries to stop free-riding on US defence capability. The same is true for a lot of the overseas bases, I expect that the Japanese and Korean governments are going to get a fairly hefty annual invoice for being their first line of defence against Chinese aggression.
That's not very smart all, though. The US is not in Japan, Korea or elsewhere to protect local interests, but to protect US ones.
But they also protect Japanese, Korean and elsewhere interests in passing, why should they get it for free without contributing to the cost ?
The people of Okinawa would dispute the idea that the US presence is without cost.
The people of the Philippines thought the same, until the American's left and they felt the lack of all those US paychecks pouring into their economy.
If the phone polls are correct then it is a Remain blowout absolutely no problem if anything the price should be shorter. If the online polls are correct then it requires just a very modest amount of Swing back with the don't knows Breaking for the status quo for a firm Remain win.
I dont think we can even say that, with differential turnout being so critical. Even if the phone polls are right, but on the day the far more zealous Leavers turn out 2:1 compared to the apathetic Remainers, the polls will have been right, but looking (once more) at the wrong sample.
I am yet to be convinced that either Phone or Online polls are in any way representative of the sample that matters, ie. those that ACTUALLY turn out on the day, and vote.
Best price for IN 1/6 , interestingly you can back it at 2/9 on betfair for £76k, somebody is very happy to lay at that price. Very strange market, completely at odds with the polls which favour Remain but are inconsistent. The behaviour in the Remain camp suggests concern.
Egg on an awful lot of faces regardless of the outcome.
The price is pretty easy to understand regardless of whether you believe the phone polls or the online polls are correct.
The trend of both polls is basically static with no movement towards either remain or leave in stark contrast to the Scottish independence referendum where there was a clear trend towards yes.
If the phone polls are correct then it is a Remain blowout absolutely no problem if anything the price should be shorter. If the online polls are correct then it requires just a very modest amount of Swing back with the don't knows Breaking for the status quo for a firm Remain win.
One cautionary observation i would make is regarding turnout.
A brief look at last year's GE polls and the ones I could retrieve on Sindy for the same stage of the campaigns suggested that 10/10 percentages were only marginally under real turnout on the day.
I know that respondents self certify, but precedent implies turnout around the mid 60s so anything reporting a result on the basis of 75, 85, 95% seems suspect.
If the phone polls are correct then it is a Remain blowout absolutely no problem if anything the price should be shorter. If the online polls are correct then it requires just a very modest amount of Swing back with the don't knows Breaking for the status quo for a firm Remain win.
I dont think we can even say that, with differential turnout being so critical. Even if the phone polls are right, but on the day the far more zealous Leavers turn out 2:1 compared to the apathetic Remainers, the polls will have been right, but looking (once more) at the wrong sample.
I am yet to be convinced that either Phone or Online polls are in any way representative of the sample that matters, ie. those that ACTUALLY turn out on the day, and vote.
What, if anything, would convince you?
I doubt he will be convinced by the result if it doesn't show a Leave victory. The votes will no doubt have been miscounted if so.
Mr. Meeks, I'm not worried if we leave. I've been playing Fallout 4 on Survival Mode for a while now, so I'm well-versed in how to survive an apocalypse.
If the phone polls are correct then it is a Remain blowout absolutely no problem if anything the price should be shorter. If the online polls are correct then it requires just a very modest amount of Swing back with the don't knows Breaking for the status quo for a firm Remain win.
I dont think we can even say that, with differential turnout being so critical. Even if the phone polls are right, but on the day the far more zealous Leavers turn out 2:1 compared to the apathetic Remainers, the polls will have been right, but looking (once more) at the wrong sample.
I am yet to be convinced that either Phone or Online polls are in any way representative of the sample that matters, ie. those that ACTUALLY turn out on the day, and vote.
I Agree with you, I basically don't have a clue which is why I am not touching the market with a 10 foot barge pole
If the phone polls are correct then it is a Remain blowout absolutely no problem if anything the price should be shorter. If the online polls are correct then it requires just a very modest amount of Swing back with the don't knows Breaking for the status quo for a firm Remain win.
I dont think we can even say that, with differential turnout being so critical. Even if the phone polls are right, but on the day the far more zealous Leavers turn out 2:1 compared to the apathetic Remainers, the polls will have been right, but looking (once more) at the wrong sample.
I am yet to be convinced that either Phone or Online polls are in any way representative of the sample that matters, ie. those that ACTUALLY turn out on the day, and vote.
What, if anything, would convince you?
In terms of polls, nothing. If they are right its from luck from what I can see, you can't correct for a bad sample by massaging the numbers on the basis of various demographic factors. An self-selecting sample is an unrepresentative sample, but since you don't know in which way it is unrepresentative, you can't meaningfully correct for it.
A dead heat or tiny (on average) Leave advantage online, but a substantially (relatively) better picture for Remain over the electric telephone.
Hmm. Still very hard to call. We'll see how the pensions screaming on either side goes.
On that, the Daily Mail headline is quite special. As is begrudgingly admitted in the last line, the scare story it is trying to run has been specifically ruled out.
Sadly, I think Trump is likely to dismantle NATO, so he's probably more of a threat to the UK than the EU right now.
I think Trump is playing a smarter game on defence. He sees how much of a fiscal black hole it is for the US and wants NATO countries to stop free-riding on US defence capability. The same is true for a lot of the overseas bases, I expect that the Japanese and Korean governments are going to get a fairly hefty annual invoice for being their first line of defence against Chinese aggression.
That's not very smart all, though. The US is not in Japan, Korea or elsewhere to protect local interests, but to protect US ones.
But they also protect Japanese, Korean and elsewhere interests in passing, why should they get it for free without contributing to the cost ?
The people of Okinawa would dispute the idea that the US presence is without cost.
Robert
Since upgrading to Win 10 PB is showing loads of "expected" script errors , but these do not happen using edge or chrome.. any idea why?
Brexit supporters make some 'best guesses' about what they think will be the net effect of leaving will be in 5 or 10 years time.
Have you ever heard a 'Remainer' describing the sunny uplands the EU will be representing over the next 10 years?
"best guesses" five years plus away aren't likely to enthrall the voters. LEAVE are losing because they have no coherent vision of what BREXIT will mean in the aftermath of the vote and the immediate years following.
In such an absence REMAIN are winning by default despite all the misgivings that many voters have about the EU. LEAVE should have treated the campaign like a general election - One leader, one manifesto, one campaign. Instead LEAVE are a disunited rabble of spokesman without a clear and focused campaign. It's almost like LEAVE are pulling pages from a textbook of how not to win a campaign.
In that context REMAIN should be 25 points clear but their campaign is piss poor too and will win only because LEAVE are so much worse.
If the phone polls are correct then it is a Remain blowout absolutely no problem if anything the price should be shorter. If the online polls are correct then it requires just a very modest amount of Swing back with the don't knows Breaking for the status quo for a firm Remain win.
I dont think we can even say that, with differential turnout being so critical. Even if the phone polls are right, but on the day the far more zealous Leavers turn out 2:1 compared to the apathetic Remainers, the polls will have been right, but looking (once more) at the wrong sample.
I am yet to be convinced that either Phone or Online polls are in any way representative of the sample that matters, ie. those that ACTUALLY turn out on the day, and vote.
What, if anything, would convince you?
I doubt he will be convinced by the result if it doesn't show a Leave victory. The votes will no doubt have been miscounted if so.
Cobblers. The result will be the result. The extent to which the polls reflect that result is much more open to debate. Given the levels of self-selection, and repeated polling of the same sample at my most charitable I would say that the Margin of Error needs to be considered to be MUCH larger, and that would be equally the case for polls showing a large Leave result.
Brexit supporters make some 'best guesses' about what they think will be the net effect of leaving will be in 5 or 10 years time.
Have you ever heard a 'Remainer' describing the sunny uplands the EU will be representing over the next 10 years?
"best guesses" five years plus away aren't likely to enthrall the voters. LEAVE are losing because they have no coherent vision of what BREXIT will mean in the aftermath of the vote and the immediate years following.
In such an absence REMAIN are winning by default despite all the misgivings that many voters have about the EU. LEAVE should have treated the campaign like a general election - One leader, one manifesto, one campaign. Instead LEAVE are a disunited rabble of spokesman without a clear and focused campaign. It's almost like LEAVE are pulling pages from a textbook of how not to win a campaign.
In that context REMAIN should be 25 points clear but their campaign is piss poor too and will wil only because LEAVE are so much worse.
A dead heat or tiny (on average) Leave advantage online, but a substantially (relatively) better picture for Remain over the electric telephone.
Hmm. Still very hard to call. We'll see how the pensions screaming on either side goes.
On that, the Daily Mail headline is quite special. As is begrudgingly admitted in the last line, the scare story it is trying to run has been specifically ruled out.
I don't understand how either result is bad for pensions unless the triple lock is meaningless.
Incidentally, watched the BBC news at ten last night. The Easton report was on there, but the bits people had been complaining about all seemed to have been cut.
Talking to people around here, I get the impression that some people have definitely made up their mind and won't be moved, but there is a chunk who are "febrile" and could easily move one way or the other.
Remain 'remain' favourite but any adverse events in the last week before polling could have an enormous effect and swing it to Leave. I assume the Eurocrats will be on their best behaviour but you can't control 'unforeseen' happenings.
In football parlance, the home team are 1 - 0 up with ten minutes to go but Leave are playing all-out attack now and the home team are getting nervous. That's why the chants from both sets of supporters are getting nasty.
Mr. Meeks, I'm not worried if we leave. I've been playing Fallout 4 on Survival Mode for a while now, so I'm well-versed in how to survive an apocalypse.
I lived with 30 cats, they never managed to eat me in my sleep. Also watched a lot of Bear Ghrylls. I think I may just make it.
Mr. Meeks, I'm not worried if we leave. I've been playing Fallout 4 on Survival Mode for a while now, so I'm well-versed in how to survive an apocalypse.
I lived with 30 cats, they never managed to eat me in my sleep. Also watched a lot of Bear Ghrylls. I think I may just make it.
Only ARSE deniers think it's level-pegging and such squalid individuals should be consigned to ConHome for life along with advocates of STV and genocidal turnip eradicators.
Sadly, I think Trump is likely to dismantle NATO, so he's probably more of a threat to the UK than the EU right now.
Which threat is NATO currently protecting us from?
I think you'd be amazed how quickly relations between the EU and Russia would be transformed (for the better) by the dissolution of NATO.
Russia has excellent relations with those countries that obey Putin. Democracy or Freedom are however not good options for him. Over 300 journalists have been killed on his watch for example.
A dead heat or tiny (on average) Leave advantage online, but a substantially (relatively) better picture for Remain over the electric telephone.
Hmm. Still very hard to call. We'll see how the pensions screaming on either side goes.
On that, the Daily Mail headline is quite special. As is begrudgingly admitted in the last line, the scare story it is trying to run has been specifically ruled out.
I don't understand how either result is bad for pensions unless the triple lock is meaningless.
There seems to be talk of another EU directive that's been partially introduced - something to do with cash reserves? With a whole month to go, plenty of time to disprove the HMT's scaremongering.
Cleverly very good on Sky. Haven't really seen much of him before.
A dead heat or tiny (on average) Leave advantage online, but a substantially (relatively) better picture for Remain over the electric telephone.
Hmm. Still very hard to call. We'll see how the pensions screaming on either side goes.
On that, the Daily Mail headline is quite special. As is begrudgingly admitted in the last line, the scare story it is trying to run has been specifically ruled out.
I don't understand how either result is bad for pensions unless the triple lock is meaningless.
There seems to be talk of another EU directive that's been partially introduced - something to do with cash reserves? With a whole month to go, plenty of time to disprove the HMT's scaremongering.
Cleverly very good on Sky. Haven't really seen much of him before.
Comments
A dead heat or tiny (on average) Leave advantage online, but a substantially (relatively) better picture for Remain over the electric telephone.
Hmm. Still very hard to call. We'll see how the pensions screaming on either side goes.
A brief look at last year's GE polls and the ones I could retrieve on Sindy for the same stage of the campaigns suggested that 10/10 percentages were only marginally under real turnout on the day.
I know that respondents self certify, but precedent implies turnout around the mid 60s so anything reporting a result on the basis of 75, 85, 95% seems suspect.
Since upgrading to Win 10 PB is showing loads of "expected" script errors , but these do not happen using edge or chrome.. any idea why?
In such an absence REMAIN are winning by default despite all the misgivings that many voters have about the EU. LEAVE should have treated the campaign like a general election - One leader, one manifesto, one campaign. Instead LEAVE are a disunited rabble of spokesman without a clear and focused campaign. It's almost like LEAVE are pulling pages from a textbook of how not to win a campaign.
In that context REMAIN should be 25 points clear but their campaign is piss poor too and will win only because LEAVE are so much worse.
Both campaigns being dire is likely to reduce turnout, and that'll probably help Leave.
I Research .. I Decide .. I Win
Mrs JackW and ARSE fans worldwide rely on it ....
Remain 'remain' favourite but any adverse events in the last week before polling could have an enormous effect and swing it to Leave. I assume the Eurocrats will be on their best behaviour but you can't control 'unforeseen' happenings.
In football parlance, the home team are 1 - 0 up with ten minutes to go but Leave are playing all-out attack now and the home team are getting nervous. That's why the chants from both sets of supporters are getting nasty.
Latest ARSE projection REMAIN +12.
Sadly, I think Trump is likely to dismantle NATO, so he's probably more of a threat to the UK than the EU right now.
Which threat is NATO currently protecting us from?
I think you'd be amazed how quickly relations between the EU and Russia would be transformed (for the better) by the dissolution of NATO.
Russia has excellent relations with those countries that obey Putin. Democracy or Freedom are however not good options for him. Over 300 journalists have been killed on his watch for example.
New Thread ->
Cleverly very good on Sky. Haven't really seen much of him before.