politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gov. John Hickenlooper – my 80/1 longshot for the Democrati
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They got up to about Glasgow, though.... Antonine Wall. I suspect they found the locals difficult to understand.david_herdson said:
be fair: the Romans never conquered Caledonia.OldKingCole said:0 -
I'm going to marry a cockroach, and become a Jehovah's Witness. One should take all necessary precautions.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, to be fair, nobody needs pensions when they've been reduced to heavily irradiated dust in an apocalyptic desert.
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Remember slaves ?!? ... where do you think Peter the Punter, Tabman and Alastair Matlock have gone ....OldKingCole said:Don’t you remember? One of your old friends must have used them!
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According to the Guardian there’s been a row at the G7, and one of Junckers’s aide and head of cabinet, Martin Selmayr, then stoked the row by tweeting about the “horror scenario” of a 2017 G7 meeting with Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen and Johnson around the leaders’ table.0
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They had a series of forts through the Grampians as well and dealt crushing defeats to Caledonian tribes.OldKingCole said:
They got up to about Glasgow, though.... Antonine Wall. I suspect they found the locals difficult to understand.david_herdson said:
be fair: the Romans never conquered Caledonia.OldKingCole said:
They just didn't think it was worth the effort to fully occupy.0 -
True. i thought jack lived on some vast estate in the North West though?OldKingCole said:
They got up to about Glasgow, though.... Antonine Wall. I suspect they found the locals difficult to understand.david_herdson said:
be fair: the Romans never conquered Caledonia.OldKingCole said:0 -
Few things are more tribalistic or identity politics driven than the Leave campaign. I too will be glad to see the end of it.dugarbandier said:
if tribalism is replaced by cultism a la Trump, not so sure that's a good ideablackburn63 said:this signals the end of tribalism, bring it on.
There will always be people like Trump offering solutions to complex problems that are simple and marketable - and wrong!0 -
The Romans only ventured as far as Glasgow because they thought deep fried mars bar referred to the locals immersing one the Roman gods in a vat of oil.OldKingCole said:They got up to about Glasgow, though.... Antonine Wall. I suspect they found the locals difficult to understand.
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Ask them where "The Black Country" begins.TheScreamingEagles said:
Brummies being snooty and snobbish?Alanbrooke said:
Solihull - they'd hate you for saying BirminghamScott_P said:
Shirley is in Birmingham...dugarbandier said:Sheffield less glamorous you say? no such place, shirley
What is the world coming to? I mean it's not like they have anything to be snooty or snobbish about.
"Over there" (i.e. Not here) is the standard response0 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07btlmh#playTykejohnno said:
It does sound interesting roger,could you please post the report.Roger said:
Extraordinary statistics on the Pakistani population of Bradford today. Radio 4. One in two new births are Pakistani and because of marrying first cousins over generations the gene pool is completely corrupted. A report has just been completed. It's really interestingTykejohnno said:
If your going on immigration,what about this from the remain labour and Tory governments - labour saying only 13 thousand eastern Europeans would come to Britain and then we had fake Dave on his tens of thousands cut pledge.EPG said:
+ Britain's going to be swamped with 97 million Turks if the people vote REMAINScott_P said:
NoHurstLlama said:I don't know what a "Nascent Trumpification" is but if you mean lots of people getting really fed up with the political classes then perhaps having ten years plus of prime ministers saying one thing and doing another and, it would seem, telling barefaced lies might, perhaps, be a more substantial cause then the Leave Campaign.
The problem, if there is one, is really down to Blair, Brown and Cameron.
It would be one thing to claim that the PM is always lying to you, which you may or may not agree with depending on which PM is under discussion.
What Leave have done is claimed that the PM is lying to you, along with the Treasury, the Bank of England, the IFS, the OECD, the IMF, the WTO, the EU, the American President, Uncle Tom Cobley and all
Basically there is not institution on the planet in which you can place any trust, anywhere, say Leave.
Which makes it tricky to actually govern, or hold a rational debate
Remain with real power and lies.
Sorry if it went away from your post but for me it's all connected.0 -
Hence feels threatened rather than is threatened (other than the unskilled working class)JackW said:
Whilst the white demographic is declining every cycle that bloc remains the substantial voting majority, to the nearest half point :Paul_Bedfordshire said:It is the decline in relwtive white population that is the danger. When it reaches the point that hegemony feels threatened they put aside differences and vote tribally.
White 70.5% .. Black 13.5% .. Hispanic 10.5% .. Asian/Other 5.5%
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A large Leave vote -- say over 45 per cent, but under 50 per cent, which is what I think will happen -- creates an incredible opportunity.stodge said:Morning all
Ah yes, the joys of canvassing and leafleting. Easier in May and June than March and April in terms of weather and light. Here in downtown East Ham all we've had is the local Communist Party leafleting one night at the tube station inviting us all to a public meeting.
I'm still to be convinced of the level of public engagement. There's hearing about it and thinking about it. The week of the Bank Holiday is half term and some people will be on holiday and others will simply not be working.
That gives three solid campaigning weeks from the beginning of the month.
It occurred to me on the way home from work that, in the medium to long term, a win for LEAVE would be the better result for the Conservative Party. Yes, there would be a short term crisis over Cameron and Osborne but the Party is, if nothing else, desperate to be seen to be reflecting the public mood so a pro-LEAVE figure will quickly emerge and will start by, I would imagine, making overtures to UKIP members and supporters to invite them "home", perhaps offering Farage a seat on the negotiating team.
What then for the pro-REMAIN dissidents within the Conservative Party and elsewhere ? Politically, their future would be bleak - no chance of another referendum of course - so they either accept the democratic will and make the best of it or drop away.
In politics, winning isn't everything, sometimes it isn't the end of your troubles but only the beginning.
In a two party democracy (which is basically the case in most of the UK), it won't be possible for both parties to remain Europhile if 45 per cent of the population isn't. One of the two parties has to evolve to become explicitly anti EU.
Most assume that the anti-EU party will be the Tory party.
But, might it be Labour ?
The Leave vote is highly correlated with income, it is the poor who primarily have not seen the benefits of the EU and have suffered the drawbacks of immigration.
A Labour Party that went down to a crushing defeat in 2020 would need to re-invent itself.
It is a desperate party that thinks outside the box. It might be hugely tempted by a large, unrepresented electorate.
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You want to know what's equally amazing: despite the CGT strike, France is exporting electricity to the UK right now.Plato_Says said:
16/19 nuke plants out today - wow.Alanbrooke said:
I had to laugh when the power stations were taken out on strike, now you can't even charge your electric car.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a tribute to D-Day. Cutting off the essential suppliesAlanbrooke said:Here's tyhe current map of France with petrol stations that have run out of fuel.
Euro 2016 looks a real fan fest if you like walking.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/economie/le-scan-eco/dessous-chiffres/2016/05/21/29006-20160521ARTFIG00134-decouvrez-la-carte-des-penuries-de-carburants-dans-toute-la-france.php
If there's one thing the CGT understand it's how to really screw up the country.
And they don't actually give a shit.0 -
The US assimilates better than most western democracies. Those that feel threatened are a minority of even the WWC demographic.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Hence feels threatened rather than is threatened (other than the unskilled working class)JackW said:
Whilst the white demographic is declining every cycle that bloc remains the substantial voting majority, to the nearest half point :Paul_Bedfordshire said:It is the decline in relwtive white population that is the danger. When it reaches the point that hegemony feels threatened they put aside differences and vote tribally.
White 70.5% .. Black 13.5% .. Hispanic 10.5% .. Asian/Other 5.5%0 -
You have to order them from the store and do it yourself James. Just as I did.JamesM said:I have had no remain/leave leaflets but have had the government's leaflet, the electoral commission leaflet and what looked like the Remain formal flyer with Baroness Brady, Martin Lewis on etc. I assume Leave will use their free formal flyer later in the campaign?
I am keen to leaflet for Leave. Do you get sent leaflets or have to purchase them via their store?
If you don't take the initiative nothing will happen.0 -
Btw New Jersey Delegates = 126, current polling indicates 72 Clinton, netting + 18 delegates (Which makes sense given her North East urban strength)HYUFD said:
Close and Sanders finishing strongly. If Hillary were indicted Sanders could get the nomination at the conventionJackW said:California - PPIC
Clinton 46 .. Sanders 44
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/poll-clinton-and-sanders-in-dead-heat-in-california-223580
{South + North Dakota + Montana} = 93 delegates - but are as yet unpolled. Since these are rural/midwest Sanders stronghold one might expect him to get ~ 60% of the vote. 56 Sanders vs 37 Clinton = - 19 delegates, which should more or less cancel New Jersey.
Hence the California polling should entirely make up any delegate change.0 -
Actually I find the BC lot are quite the reverse, they make huge differences over a couple of 100 yards. They all claim to be from some small surburb, Tipton, West Bromwich Smethwick etc and talk about the next door street as if it was abroad.CarlottaVance said:
Ask them where "The Black Country" begins.TheScreamingEagles said:
Brummies being snooty and snobbish?Alanbrooke said:
Solihull - they'd hate you for saying BirminghamScott_P said:
Shirley is in Birmingham...dugarbandier said:Sheffield less glamorous you say? no such place, shirley
What is the world coming to? I mean it's not like they have anything to be snooty or snobbish about.
"Over there" (i.e. Not here) is the standard response0 -
We are not a 2 party democracy and UKIP is the anti EU party already on 13%+. Almost 70% of Labour voters back RemainYBarddCwsc said:
A large Leave vote -- say over 45 per cent, but under 50 per cent, which is what I think will happen -- creates an incredible opportunity.stodge said:Morning all
Ah yes, the joys of canvassing and leafleting. Easier in May and June than March and April in terms of weather and light. Here in downtown East Ham all we've had is the local Communist Party leafleting one night at the tube station inviting us all to a public meeting.
I'm still to be convinced of the level of public engagement. There's hearing about it and thinking about it. The week of the Bank Holiday is half term and some people will be on holiday and others will simply not be working.
That gives three solid campaigning weeks from the beginning of the month.
It occurred to me on the way home from work that, in the medium to long term, a win for LEAVE would be the better result for the Conservative Party. Yes, there would be a short term crisis over Cameron and Osborne but the Party is, if nothing else, desperate to be seen to be reflecting the public mood so a pro-LEAVE figure will quickly emerge and will start by, I would imagine, making overtures to UKIP members and supporters to invite them "home", perhaps offering Farage a seat on the negotiating team.
What then for the pro-REMAIN dissidents within the Conservative Party and elsewhere ? Politically, their future would be bleak - no chance of another referendum of course - so they either accept the democratic will and make the best of it or drop away.
In politics, winning isn't everything, sometimes it isn't the end of your troubles but only the beginning.
In a two party democracy (which is basically the case in most of the UK), it won't be possible for both parties to remain Europhile if 45 per cent of the population isn't. One of the two parties has to evolve to become explicitly anti EU.
Most assume that the anti-EU party will be the Tory party.
But, might it be Labour ?
The Leave vote is highly correlated with income, it is the poor who primarily have not seen the benefits of the EU and have suffered the drawbacks of immigration.
A Labour Party that went down to a crushing defeat in 2020 would need to re-invent itself.
It is a desperate party that thinks outside the box. It might be hugely tempted by a large, unrepresented electorate.0 -
Ah. I was expecting a full 24hr news cycle dedicated to this.Plato_Says said:And here it is http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/25/david-cameron-warns-elderly-that-a-brexit-could-hit-their-pensio/
"David Cameron has echoed this in an interview with Saga magazine, warning Britain’s elderly that they could lose their "dignity in retirement” as their pensions could be at risk due to Brexit. "
Remain are slipping ;-)0 -
Not with the rising Hispanic vote, Obama won it by a landslidejustin124 said:
Until 1992 California was reliably Republican at Presidential elections , having voted Democrat only once - ie the LBJ landslide in 1964.HYUFD said:
California is a solid Democratic state with lots of liberal voters it is not that surprising Sanders is competitive. I agree in the unlikely event Hillary is forced out Sanders gets the nomination, he would only need to persuade a few former Hillary delegates to switch to him to clinch itJackW said:
PPIC have a 538 A- rating but this poll is something of an outlier. Clearly if Clinton is out then Sanders will be the nominee.HYUFD said:Close and Sanders finishing strongly. If Hillary were indicted Sanders could get the nomination at the convention
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Ah; a believable explanation. Up to now I’d thought it was midges.JackW said:
The Romans only ventured as far as Glasgow because they thought deep fried mars bar referred to the locals immersing one the Roman gods in a vat of oil.OldKingCole said:They got up to about Glasgow, though.... Antonine Wall. I suspect they found the locals difficult to understand.
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You might be right in that both main parties have fundamentally shifted their positions on the EEC/EU in the past thirty years. Labour in 1983 were committed to withdrawal and are now seen as a pro-EU party. The Conservatives have moved from a strongly pro-EU position in the 70s and 80s to the current confusion.YBarddCwsc said:
A large Leave vote -- say over 45 per cent, but under 50 per cent, which is what I think will happen -- creates an incredible opportunity.
In a two party democracy (which is basically the case in most of the UK), it won't be possible for both parties to remain Europhile if 45 per cent of the population isn't. One of the two parties has to evolve to become explicitly anti EU.
Most assume that the anti-EU party will be the Tory party.
But, might it be Labour ?
The Leave vote is highly correlated with income, it is the poor who primarily have not seen the benefits of the EU and have suffered the drawbacks of immigration.
A Labour Party that went down to a crushing defeat in 2020 would need to re-invent itself.
It is a desperate party that thinks outside the box. It might be hugely tempted by a large, unrepresented electorate.
But is it enough on its own to cause a re-alignment ? Yes, Europe was one of the defining issues on which the SDP broke from Labour in 1981 but you also had defence and internal Party democracy. Labour has struggled with defence (and still does) since the 1950s. Europe is, as far as I can see, the most divisive issue currently with Conservatives and has caused some to go off to UKIP.
Yet the duopoly has survived and neither the Liberals (in all their forms) or UKIP has seriously threatened that apart from transitory by-election ambushes.
Both the Conservative and Labour parties are broad coalitions and accommodate a diversity of opinion on issues around a broad concensus on philosophy and non-ideology. Both have endured long periods in opposition and found the road back to power without breaking up so it seems likely in the event of a near 50-50 split, either one will become the LEAVE party and the other the REMAIN party or both will continue to accommodate supporters of both sides.
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UKIP does not have the political skills to capitalise on the discontent.HYUFD said:
We are not a 3 party democracy and UKIP is the anti EU party already on 13%+. Almost 70% of Labour voters back RemainYBarddCwsc said:
A large Leave vote -- say over 45 per cent, but under 50 per cent, which is what I think will happen -- creates an incredible opportunity.stodge said:Morning all
What then for the pro-REMAIN dissidents within the Conservative Party and elsewhere ? Politically, their future would be bleak - no chance of another referendum of course - so they either accept the democratic will and make the best of it or drop away.
In politics, winning isn't everything, sometimes it isn't the end of your troubles but only the beginning.
In a two party democracy (which is basically the case in most of the UK), it won't be possible for both parties to remain Europhile if 45 per cent of the population isn't. One of the two parties has to evolve to become explicitly anti EU.
Most assume that the anti-EU party will be the Tory party.
But, might it be Labour ?
The Leave vote is highly correlated with income, it is the poor who primarily have not seen the benefits of the EU and have suffered the drawbacks of immigration.
A Labour Party that went down to a crushing defeat in 2020 would need to re-invent itself.
It is a desperate party that thinks outside the box. It might be hugely tempted by a large, unrepresented electorate.
That is very clear from the Welsh Assembly. UKIP ***could*** have inflicted huge damage on Labour in the Valleys. They didn't ... because Hamilton and Reckless are exactly the wrong type of people to crystallise this discontent. They are from a different world, alien life-forms, to most people in the Valleys.
UKIP can't evolve from what it is now to where it needs to be.
My point remains -- if the result for Leave is 45 per cent or more -- then that is an incredible opportunity for someone.
In politics, if there is a huge opportunity, someone will grasp it.
After all, Labour were a Eurosceptic party. It was the chancer Blair who made them so vociferously Europhile. A chancer whose scanty and tarnished reputation is about to be shredded some more.0 -
10 years BBC radio production, 10 years SPAD. So not exactly real world but equally not as vacuous as the pure PR/SPAD route. Also he didn't study PPE, he's from the north and his BBC career was split between Cardiff and London,Plato_Says said:
Owen seemed so straight and reassuringly sensible. Defo one to watch, what's his background? I find Starmer a bit flashy/attention seeker after his CPS stint.Polruan said:
Yeah, he's a good guy. At the moment I'd see him and Starmer as the two most plausible unifying candidates if Corbyn agreed to stand down explicitly urging his supporters to back a leader who would try and tread a middle ground between the two wings of the party. It's not clear that that would be rightwing enough for the Blairites to play too, but right now I think either of them would beat the Burnham/Cooper/Kendall representatives.Plato_Says said:Owen Smith Sh DWP is very good on Sky. Haven't seen him before.
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You cannot be serious Sheerman.
https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/735702521658769408
I hope he was joking.0 -
He is the son of a Marxist Professor of Cultural History.Polruan said:
10 years BBC radio production, 10 years SPAD. So not exactly real world but equally not as vacuous as the pure PR/SPAD route. Also he didn't study PPE, he's from the north and his BBC career was split between Cardiff and London,Plato_Says said:
Owen seemed so straight and reassuringly sensible. Defo one to watch, what's his background? I find Starmer a bit flashy/attention seeker after his CPS stint.Polruan said:
Yeah, he's a good guy. At the moment I'd see him and Starmer as the two most plausible unifying candidates if Corbyn agreed to stand down explicitly urging his supporters to back a leader who would try and tread a middle ground between the two wings of the party. It's not clear that that would be rightwing enough for the Blairites to play too, but right now I think either of them would beat the Burnham/Cooper/Kendall representatives.Plato_Says said:Owen Smith Sh DWP is very good on Sky. Haven't seen him before.
Haven't Labour learnt anything from Ed Miliband's tenure ?0 -
Golly, Hilton really doesn't the EU.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/grotesque-arrogant-and-a-law-unto-itself-lsdwjbvth0 -
It would be quite funny if they had to pull the plug on the interconnector and we had power cuts the week before th e referendum- unlikely though at this time of year.rcs1000 said:
You want to know what's equally amazing: despite the CGT strike, France is exporting electricity to the UK right now.Plato_Says said:
16/19 nuke plants out today - wow.Alanbrooke said:
I had to laugh when the power stations were taken out on strike, now you can't even charge your electric car.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a tribute to D-Day. Cutting off the essential suppliesAlanbrooke said:Here's tyhe current map of France with petrol stations that have run out of fuel.
Euro 2016 looks a real fan fest if you like walking.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/economie/le-scan-eco/dessous-chiffres/2016/05/21/29006-20160521ARTFIG00134-decouvrez-la-carte-des-penuries-de-carburants-dans-toute-la-france.php
If there's one thing the CGT understand it's how to really screw up the country.
And they don't actually give a shit.0 -
Labour flipped between 1983 and 1987 didn't they? They were certainly more pro-Maastricht than the Tories at 1992.YBarddCwsc said:
UKIP does not have the political skills to capitalise on the discontent.HYUFD said:
We are not a 3 party democracy and UKIP is the anti EU party already on 13%+. Almost 70% of Labour voters back RemainYBarddCwsc said:A large Leave vote -- say over 45 per cent, but under 50 per cent, which is what I think will happen -- creates an incredible opportunity.
In a two party democracy (which is basically the case in most of the UK), it won't be possible for both parties to remain Europhile if 45 per cent of the population isn't. One of the two parties has to evolve to become explicitly anti EU.
Most assume that the anti-EU party will be the Tory party.
But, might it be Labour ?
The Leave vote is highly correlated with income, it is the poor who primarily have not seen the benefits of the EU and have suffered the drawbacks of immigration.
A Labour Party that went down to a crushing defeat in 2020 would need to re-invent itself.
It is a desperate party that thinks outside the box. It might be hugely tempted by a large, unrepresented electorate.
That is very clear from the Welsh Assembly. UKIP ***could*** have inflicted huge damage on Labour in the Valleys. They didn't ... because Hamilton and Reckless are exactly the wrong type of people to crystallise this discontent. They are from a different world, alien life-forms, to most people in the Valleys.
UKIP can't evolve from what it is now to where it needs to be.
My point remains -- if the result for Leave is 45 per cent or more -- then that is an incredible opportunity for someone.
In politics, if there is a huge opportunity, someone will grasp it.
After all, Labour were a Eurosceptic party. It was the chancer Blair who made them so vociferously Europhile. A chancer whose scanty and tarnished reputation is about to be shredded some more.
Labour won't switch to an anti-EU position while the unions support it, and the unions support it while it's passing social regulations. TTIP might be an issue but that could well die a slow death from opposition on both sides of the Atlantic.
And to reiterate one of Mike's regular points, just because 45% oppose EU membership, that doesn't necessarily mean it'll be a driver of voting intention: it's how strongly people oppose membership that'd matter.
that said, UKIP still have the chance to inflict huge damage on Labour but only if they can reform the leadership to sound like it reflects traditional left-wing working class concerns more - which it won't with Carswell, Farage, Reckless and Hamilton. It also needs to get over an obsession with Europe. It's fine as one weapon in their armory, and a potent one, but it shouldn't dominate.0 -
Dunno, maybe not to be bullied by fuckwits who think that one's parents political beliefs disqualify one from party leadership? The ideological belief in the appropriateness of aggressive tax planning and offshore secrecy jurisdictions doesn't seem to have worked out too badly for Cameron Sr's son.YBarddCwsc said:
He is the son of a Marxist Professor of Cultural History.Polruan said:
10 years BBC radio production, 10 years SPAD. So not exactly real world but equally not as vacuous as the pure PR/SPAD route. Also he didn't study PPE, he's from the north and his BBC career was split between Cardiff and London,Plato_Says said:
Owen seemed so straight and reassuringly sensible. Defo one to watch, what's his background? I find Starmer a bit flashy/attention seeker after his CPS stint.Polruan said:
Yeah, he's a good guy. At the moment I'd see him and Starmer as the two most plausible unifying candidates if Corbyn agreed to stand down explicitly urging his supporters to back a leader who would try and tread a middle ground between the two wings of the party. It's not clear that that would be rightwing enough for the Blairites to play too, but right now I think either of them would beat the Burnham/Cooper/Kendall representatives.Plato_Says said:Owen Smith Sh DWP is very good on Sky. Haven't seen him before.
Haven't Labour learnt anything from Ed Miliband's tenure ?0 -
I assume that would be illegal so either he's joking or has been hacked?dr_spyn said:You cannot be serious Sheerman.
https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/735702521658769408
I hope he was joking.
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Is the Chinese restaurant the Shirley Temple still going?Alanbrooke said:
The sign welcome to Solihull starts as you drive out of Hall Green so Shirley is in Solihull not Birmingham.Scott_P said:
I worked in Solihull for 10 years. I drove past Shirley every day to get to SolihullAlanbrooke said:I drive through it every day. but if you know better .....
So yes, once again, it appears I do know better.
Next time you drive through Shirley, keep a look out for the sign that says welcome to Solihull
Here's a bit of cut and paste to help you.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shirley,_West_Midlands0 -
I'll refrain from saying thickos back Brexit
https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/7357468394298122240 -
"On average polls not really showing Remain much ahead of where it has been but phone polls have changed psychology of campaign" #psamedia0
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Yes, seems to have survived, a large chunk of Shirley high street has been redeveloped so quite a lot of shops got moved around. But the ST is still there.MarqueeMark said:
Is the Chinese restaurant the Shirley Temple still going?Alanbrooke said:
The sign welcome to Solihull starts as you drive out of Hall Green so Shirley is in Solihull not Birmingham.Scott_P said:
I worked in Solihull for 10 years. I drove past Shirley every day to get to SolihullAlanbrooke said:I drive through it every day. but if you know better .....
So yes, once again, it appears I do know better.
Next time you drive through Shirley, keep a look out for the sign that says welcome to Solihull
Here's a bit of cut and paste to help you.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shirley,_West_Midlands0 -
Remain are doing the most - re: campaign events - and in the most places. Winning the ground war. #psamedia0
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Make sure you follow the https://twitter.com/PolStudiesAssoc/with_replies account
Is full of goodies today0 -
Without opposition to Europe UKIP have no purpose. This idea they will somehow take Labour's place across swathes of the North is just wishful thinking by Tories. The most likely outcome of Leave vote by far is UKIP are finished as a party and the most likely outcome of a Remain vote is Farage is dumped and a more sane leader who can articulate a wider and more inclusive anti-EU sentiment is chosen.david_herdson said:
Labour flipped between 1983 and 1987 didn't they? They were certainly more pro-Maastricht than the Tories at 1992.
Labour won't switch to an anti-EU position while the unions support it, and the unions support it while it's passing social regulations. TTIP might be an issue but that could well die a slow death from opposition on both sides of the Atlantic.
And to reiterate one of Mike's regular points, just because 45% oppose EU membership, that doesn't necessarily mean it'll be a driver of voting intention: it's how strongly people oppose membership that'd matter.
that said, UKIP still have the chance to inflict huge damage on Labour but only if they can reform the leadership to sound like it reflects traditional left-wing working class concerns more - which it won't with Carswell, Farage, Reckless and Hamilton. It also needs to get over an obsession with Europe. It's fine as one weapon in their armory, and a potent one, but it shouldn't dominate.0 -
Careful there.TheScreamingEagles said:I'll refrain from saying thickies back Brexit
https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/735746839429812224
A lot of those "thickies" were the sort of people Mrs Thatcher attracted when she was winning landslide after landslide in the 80's and who have since abandoned the the Tories, seemingly never to return.0 -
Frankly, UK electricity demand is so aneamic right now, that pretty much the entire UK coal fleet is idle. That around 20GW of power stations where the workers have nothing to do, but perform routing maintenance.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
It would be quite funny if they had to pull the plug on the interconnector and we had power cuts the week before th e referendum- unlikely though at this time of year.rcs1000 said:
You want to know what's equally amazing: despite the CGT strike, France is exporting electricity to the UK right now.Plato_Says said:
16/19 nuke plants out today - wow.Alanbrooke said:
I had to laugh when the power stations were taken out on strike, now you can't even charge your electric car.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a tribute to D-Day. Cutting off the essential suppliesAlanbrooke said:Here's tyhe current map of France with petrol stations that have run out of fuel.
Euro 2016 looks a real fan fest if you like walking.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/economie/le-scan-eco/dessous-chiffres/2016/05/21/29006-20160521ARTFIG00134-decouvrez-la-carte-des-penuries-de-carburants-dans-toute-la-france.php
If there's one thing the CGT understand it's how to really screw up the country.
And they don't actually give a shit.
See: http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
I would like to point out that I was the only person on politicalbetting (literally the only one) who said we would not have electricity shortages. I would like some respect for my energy forecasting skills
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It was weird when I was in Holland about a few weeks back and saw a sign showing 100 km or whatever to "Maastricht" !david_herdson said:
Labour flipped between 1983 and 1987 didn't they? They were certainly more pro-Maastricht than the Tories at 1992.0 -
Yes. Maybe you should phrase it as people with more restricted life options back Brexit becasue they're suffering the consequences of EU membership.TheScreamingEagles said:I'll refrain from saying thickies back Brexit
https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/7357468394298122240 -
And reaching less than a thousand people in total....if that picture of Hammond in front of three seated people is the yardstick!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Almost certainly -- since it is impossible to prove you voted.dr_spyn said:You cannot be serious Sheerman.
https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/735702521658769408
I hope he was joking.0 -
My point is rather that the background & life experiences of Owen Smith are the same as the background & life experiences of Ed Miliband. That is not what Labour need.Polruan said:
Dunno, maybe not to be bullied by fuckwits who think that one's parents political beliefs disqualify one from party leadership? The ideological belief in the appropriateness of aggressive tax planning and offshore secrecy jurisdictions doesn't seem to have worked out too badly for Cameron Sr's son.YBarddCwsc said:
He is the son of a Marxist Professor of Cultural History.Polruan said:
10 years BBC radio production, 10 years SPAD. So not exactly real world but equally not as vacuous as the pure PR/SPAD route. Also he didn't study PPE, he's from the north and his BBC career was split between Cardiff and London,Plato_Says said:
Owen seemed so straight and reassuringly sensible. Defo one to watch, what's his background? I find Starmer a bit flashy/attention seeker after his CPS stint.Polruan said:
Yeah, he's a good guy. At the moment I'd see him and Starmer as the two most plausible unifying candidates if Corbyn agreed to stand down explicitly urging his supporters to back a leader who would try and tread a middle ground between the two wings of the party. It's not clear that that would be rightwing enough for the Blairites to play too, but right now I think either of them would beat the Burnham/Cooper/Kendall representatives.Plato_Says said:Owen Smith Sh DWP is very good on Sky. Haven't seen him before.
Haven't Labour learnt anything from Ed Miliband's tenure ?
Your original post referred to how different he was -- "he didn't study PPE"
If that is what diversity now means at the top of the Labour Party, they're doomed.0 -
but it seens from discussion anon. that leave base is already motivated to get out and vote. So remain has to mobilise the base, while leave can campaign for switchers could also be a plausible scenario? doesn't necessarily mean anyone is winningTheScreamingEagles said:Remain are doing the most - re: campaign events - and in the most places. Winning the ground war. #psamedia
0 -
I'm not suggesting that UKIP should drop opposition to the EU: far from it. If the Referendum results in a Leave then clearly that resolves that issue though they could still argue for withdrawal from the ECHR and similar. if it's a Remain, then clearly the policy has to remain central to UKIP's purpose.Richard_Tyndall said:
Without opposition to Europe UKIP have no purpose. This idea they will somehow take Labour's place across swathes of the North is just wishful thinking by Tories. The most likely outcome of Leave vote by far is UKIP are finished as a party and the most likely outcome of a Remain vote is Farage is dumped and a more sane leader who can articulate a wider and more inclusive anti-EU sentiment is chosen.david_herdson said:
Labour flipped between 1983 and 1987 didn't they? They were certainly more pro-Maastricht than the Tories at 1992.
Labour won't switch to an anti-EU position while the unions support it, and the unions support it while it's passing social regulations. TTIP might be an issue but that could well die a slow death from opposition on both sides of the Atlantic.
And to reiterate one of Mike's regular points, just because 45% oppose EU membership, that doesn't necessarily mean it'll be a driver of voting intention: it's how strongly people oppose membership that'd matter.
that said, UKIP still have the chance to inflict huge damage on Labour but only if they can reform the leadership to sound like it reflects traditional left-wing working class concerns more - which it won't with Carswell, Farage, Reckless and Hamilton. It also needs to get over an obsession with Europe. It's fine as one weapon in their armory, and a potent one, but it shouldn't dominate.
But just as the SNP have broadened their appeal beyond just nationalists, so UKIP have the opportunity to broaden their vote base beyond the relatively few who regard EU membership as of so overriding importance as to vote for a fringe party at a general election on the issue. Indeed, to some extent they've already done that but there's much more potential to mine.0 -
Those Ashcroft findings are very interesting and probably not a bad pointer to the result.
Lesson I take away is that this was very winnable for Leave, but Remain are very likely to get a narrow victory now.0 -
How much is that an age thing? It'd be interesting to see the cross-tabs for e.g. the education of the 65+ group / the 18-25 group, though I suspect the sample sizes are too small and not internally balanced.TheScreamingEagles said:I'll refrain from saying thickos back Brexit
https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/7357468394298122240 -
worst "statistics" ever on display hereTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
A "narrow" victory would keep the issue alive and festering, especially given the way Cameron and Osborne have conducted this referendum.Casino_Royale said:Those Ashcroft findings are very interesting and probably not a bad pointer to the result.
Lesson I take away is that this was very winnable for Leave, but Remain are very likely to get a narrow victory now.0 -
I think there's a lot of confirmation bias from the various analysts - I follow most on Twitter and they largely lean-Left. Ashcroft leans right. There's motivations from both sides to talk each other up and down.Wanderer said:Astute comments from Glen O'Hara on the Ashcroft stuff, in summary:
@gsoh31
No doubt that the data/ modelling favours #Remain in #EUref. They are favourites. But idea that they are home and hosed is silly.0 -
Not if they view them with equal weight, surely?dugarbandier said:
worst "statistics" ever on display hereTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Mr. Gin, quite.
It would be an opportunity for Labour to turn sceptic, as mentioned below, but I cannot see that happening.
If 45% vote Leave and both major parties remain EU-phile, even with Farage UKIP could make substantial gains. Of course, if history repeats itself they'll manage to screw up the General Election anyway, but we may see.0 -
It looks like they're planning to convince the UK government to ignore the referendum result.Alanbrooke said:EU having confidential scenario planning in the event of Brexit
Was it Sir Humphrey Nabavi who said UK mandarins wouldn't be able to do the same ?
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/wirtschaftspolitik/grossbritannien-stimmt-ab-vertrauliches-brexit-treffen-fuer-den-fall-der-faelle-14253407.html0 -
TSE thinks old people who left school at 15 years old and have been in work for 40-50 years are "thickies"?david_herdson said:
How much is that an age thing? It'd be interesting to see the cross-tabs for e.g. the education of the 65+ group / the 18-25 group, though I suspect the sample sizes are too small and not internally balanced.TheScreamingEagles said:I'll refrain from saying thickos back Brexit
https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/735746839429812224
And people who left school and did apprenticeships to become plumbers, builders, van drivers, construction workers, manual workers, mechanics, etc... Are "Thickies".
I think he may need a long holiday after this referendum, lol.0 -
According to breakfast TV approaching the large ex-pat community permanently living in Spain are breaking heavily to Remain while interestingly those who split their time between Spain and the UK are more divided. Cynics might observe of the first group that having buggered off to warmer climes they are just looking after themselves and don't give a toss about the changing nature of the UK. It is quite conceivable that a leave majority in England and Wales will be wiped out by the combined votes of N.I , Scotland, Gibraltar and assorted ex-pats..0
-
Well, it is the summer!rcs1000 said:
Frankly, UK electricity demand is so aneamic right now, that pretty much the entire UK coal fleet is idle. That around 20GW of power stations where the workers have nothing to do, but perform routing maintenance.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
It would be quite funny if they had to pull the plug on the interconnector and we had power cuts the week before th e referendum- unlikely though at this time of year.rcs1000 said:
You want to know what's equally amazing: despite the CGT strike, France is exporting electricity to the UK right now.Plato_Says said:
16/19 nuke plants out today - wow.Alanbrooke said:
I had to laugh when the power stations were taken out on strike, now you can't even charge your electric car.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a tribute to D-Day. Cutting off the essential suppliesAlanbrooke said:Here's tyhe current map of France with petrol stations that have run out of fuel.
Euro 2016 looks a real fan fest if you like walking.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/economie/le-scan-eco/dessous-chiffres/2016/05/21/29006-20160521ARTFIG00134-decouvrez-la-carte-des-penuries-de-carburants-dans-toute-la-france.php
If there's one thing the CGT understand it's how to really screw up the country.
And they don't actually give a shit.
See: http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
I would like to point out that I was the only person on politicalbetting (literally the only one) who said we would not have electricity shortages. I would like some respect for my energy forecasting skills
0 -
I'm really nervous about doing that.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Mr. Royale, Cable has already suggested a narrow Leave victory should be ignored.
I'm of the view Cameron will try and negotiate a terrible deal (and given the last negotiation I'm sure he'd succeed magnificently) then ask for a second vote, with the options being the terrible deal he's negotiated or genuflecting before the eurocrats.0 -
I'm fleeing the country on June 26th for an overseas holidayGIN1138 said:
TSE thinks old people who left school at 15 years old and have been in work for 40-50 years are "thickies"?david_herdson said:
How much is that an age thing? It'd be interesting to see the cross-tabs for e.g. the education of the 65+ group / the 18-25 group, though I suspect the sample sizes are too small and not internally balanced.TheScreamingEagles said:I'll refrain from saying thickos back Brexit
https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/735746839429812224
And people who left school and became did apprenticeships to become plumbers, builders, van drivers, construction workers, manual workers, mechanics, etc... Are "Thickies".
I think he may need a long holiday after this referendum, lol.0 -
Young people have to rack up £40k debt to have the same education level relative to their peers as final salary 65+ A-level baby boomersdavid_herdson said:
How much is that an age thing? It'd be interesting to see the cross-tabs for e.g. the education of the 65+ group / the 18-25 group, though I suspect the sample sizes are too small and not internally balanced.TheScreamingEagles said:I'll refrain from saying thickos back Brexit
https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/735746839429812224
. 0 -
Online Polling and Gender - From Ashcroft
Claimed to Have Voted
25-34: 63% (men) - 34% (female)
35-44: 62% (men) - 39% (female)
Respondents by Gender
18-24: 183 Male: 394 Female
25-34: 324 Male: 422 Female
Those with lower educational levels had higher tendency to vote. Obviously, it's age related as societal norms have changed.
The majority claim they will go with their instincts (58-42) rather than 'facts' and that gulf widens with maturity.
Two thirds of the 45+ population are simply not listening to 'the facts'.
Remain should be very worried.
0 -
That picture captures an emotional state beyond extreme boredom into something unnamable.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
You shouldn't do that.Casino_Royale said:
I'm really nervous about doing that.TheScreamingEagles said:
All those who think immigration is the number one issue for the country are already voting Leave and from GE 2015 all it does it firm up the soft liberals to back anyone but UKIP, you can see it firming them up for Remain.0 -
@HSJEditor: BREAKING: Huge leak reveals BMA plan to 'draw out' junior doctors dispute https://t.co/LTwbyRPh81 #juniorcontract0
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Lol. Leave couldn't even organise a music festival what makes you think they can win. Sad really. We are stuck with this undemocratic, unreformable organistaion ruling over us for another few decades.Casino_Royale said:Those Ashcroft findings are very interesting and probably not a bad pointer to the result.
Lesson I take away is that this was very winnable for Leave, but Remain are very likely to get a narrow victory now.0 -
I think you need it...TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm fleeing the country on June 26th for an overseas holidayGIN1138 said:
TSE thinks old people who left school at 15 years old and have been in work for 40-50 years are "thickies"?david_herdson said:
How much is that an age thing? It'd be interesting to see the cross-tabs for e.g. the education of the 65+ group / the 18-25 group, though I suspect the sample sizes are too small and not internally balanced.TheScreamingEagles said:I'll refrain from saying thickos back Brexit
https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/735746839429812224
And people who left school and became did apprenticeships to become plumbers, builders, van drivers, construction workers, manual workers, mechanics, etc... Are "Thickies".
I think he may need a long holiday after this referendum, lol. 0 -
@alanjrenwick: another #indyref after #Brexit would be problematic as it would leave Scotland bordering a non-EU country #PSAmedia0
-
It is notable on Gridwatch that France with a similar population has usage 50% higher than us -51 vs 34 gig. (although the domestic demand is actually 41 gig as 20% of output is being exported to various countries) but that stlill leaves them using 20% more than us domesticallyrcs1000 said:
Frankly, UK electricity demand is so aneamic right now, that pretty much the entire UK coal fleet is idle. That around 20GW of power stations where the workers have nothing to do, but perform routing maintenance.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
It would be quite funny if they had to pull the plug on the interconnector and we had power cuts the week before th e referendum- unlikely though at this time of year.rcs1000 said:
You want to know what's equally amazing: despite the CGT strike, France is exporting electricity to the UK right now.Plato_Says said:
16/19 nuke plants out today - wow.Alanbrooke said:
I had to laugh when the power stations were taken out on strike, now you can't even charge your electric car.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a tribute to D-Day. Cutting off the essential suppliesAlanbrooke said:Here's tyhe current map of France with petrol stations that have run out of fuel.
Euro 2016 looks a real fan fest if you like walking.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/economie/le-scan-eco/dessous-chiffres/2016/05/21/29006-20160521ARTFIG00134-decouvrez-la-carte-des-penuries-de-carburants-dans-toute-la-france.php
If there's one thing the CGT understand it's how to really screw up the country.
And they don't actually give a shit.
See: http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
I would like to point out that I was the only person on politicalbetting (literally the only one) who said we would not have electricity shortages. I would like some respect for my energy forecasting skills0 -
OT: We are planning to have a family holiday in California this summer. Flight options are Virgin, BA, United or Austrian Airlines. Not much difference in the price, so any recommendations/ones to avoid? (Last travelled Virgin Atlantic circa 18 years ago and swore never again... but maybe things have changed?)0
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Some of them, of course, are. Thickies do exist.GIN1138 said:
TSE thinks old people who left school at 15 years old and have been in work for 40-50 years are "thickies"?david_herdson said:
How much is that an age thing? It'd be interesting to see the cross-tabs for e.g. the education of the 65+ group / the 18-25 group, though I suspect the sample sizes are too small and not internally balanced.TheScreamingEagles said:I'll refrain from saying thickos back Brexit
https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/735746839429812224
And people who left school and did apprenticeships to become plumbers, builders, van drivers, construction workers, manual workers, mechanics, etc... Are "Thickies".
[snip]0 -
I'm editing PB from next Monday until June 20th, not sure I'll need it, as we all know, nothing much happens when Mike goes on holiday.GIN1138 said:
I think you need it...TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm fleeing the country on June 26th for an overseas holidayGIN1138 said:
TSE thinks old people who left school at 15 years old and have been in work for 40-50 years are "thickies"?david_herdson said:
How much is that an age thing? It'd be interesting to see the cross-tabs for e.g. the education of the 65+ group / the 18-25 group, though I suspect the sample sizes are too small and not internally balanced.TheScreamingEagles said:I'll refrain from saying thickos back Brexit
https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/735746839429812224
And people who left school and became did apprenticeships to become plumbers, builders, van drivers, construction workers, manual workers, mechanics, etc... Are "Thickies".
I think he may need a long holiday after this referendum, lol.0 -
How well has Cable got on ignoring the result in Twickenham?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, Cable has already suggested a narrow Leave victory should be ignored.
I'm of the view Cameron will try and negotiate a terrible deal (and given the last negotiation I'm sure he'd succeed magnificently) then ask for a second vote, with the options being the terrible deal he's negotiated or genuflecting before the eurocrats.0 -
That's the problem with being Born Yesterday.Pulpstar said:
Young people have to rack up £40k debt to have the same education level relative to their peers as final salary 65+ A-level baby boomersdavid_herdson said:
How much is that an age thing? It'd be interesting to see the cross-tabs for e.g. the education of the 65+ group / the 18-25 group, though I suspect the sample sizes are too small and not internally balanced.TheScreamingEagles said:I'll refrain from saying thickos back Brexit
https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/735746839429812224. 0 -
I read the LA poll, can anyone tell me what the headline VI was for Leave/Remain?0
-
I think TSE sums up what many in the Remain camp actually think.GIN1138 said:
Careful there.TheScreamingEagles said:I'll refrain from saying thickies back Brexit
https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/735746839429812224
A lot of those "thickies" were the sort of people Mrs Thatcher attracted when she was winning landslide after landslide in the 80's and who have since abandoned the the Tories, seemingly never to return.0 -
If you support Leave that's why I would recommend you insist on an early invocation of Article 50.Casino_Royale said:
It looks like they're planning to convince the UK government to ignore the referendum result.Alanbrooke said:EU having confidential scenario planning in the event of Brexit
Was it Sir Humphrey Nabavi who said UK mandarins wouldn't be able to do the same ?
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/wirtschaftspolitik/grossbritannien-stimmt-ab-vertrauliches-brexit-treffen-fuer-den-fall-der-faelle-14253407.html0 -
presumably the betting and at least some of the forecasts are based on polls, so averaging them all seems like an extremely dodgy way of carrying on. even presenting them this way will give you a false impression of consensus.RobD said:
Not if they view them with equal weight, surely?dugarbandier said:
worst "statistics" ever on display hereTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Nothing, it is basically one large focus group of 5,000 people.MaxPB said:I read the LA poll, can anyone tell me what the headline VI was for Leave/Remain?
0 -
I was born in 1981, I am without doubt that were I to have had a choice (Though 1981 was a perfectly good year to be born in) I'd have chosen 1971 over 1991 to be born in.chestnut said:
That's the problem with being Born Yesterday.Pulpstar said:
Young people have to rack up £40k debt to have the same education level relative to their peers as final salary 65+ A-level baby boomersdavid_herdson said:
How much is that an age thing? It'd be interesting to see the cross-tabs for e.g. the education of the 65+ group / the 18-25 group, though I suspect the sample sizes are too small and not internally balanced.TheScreamingEagles said:I'll refrain from saying thickos back Brexit
https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/735746839429812224.0 -
Mr. Herdson, he got knighted, so not too badly.0
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It was a very sweeping generalization though. Just because someone doesn't go to university does NOT mean they are a thickie...david_herdson said:
Some of them, of course, are. Thickies do exist.GIN1138 said:
TSE thinks old people who left school at 15 years old and have been in work for 40-50 years are "thickies"?david_herdson said:
How much is that an age thing? It'd be interesting to see the cross-tabs for e.g. the education of the 65+ group / the 18-25 group, though I suspect the sample sizes are too small and not internally balanced.TheScreamingEagles said:I'll refrain from saying thickos back Brexit
https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/735746839429812224
And people who left school and did apprenticeships to become plumbers, builders, van drivers, construction workers, manual workers, mechanics, etc... Are "Thickies".
[snip]0 -
What's your assessment of the risks for Leave of doing that? (I think it's dangerous for Leave also but would be interested to know how you see it.)Casino_Royale said:
I'm really nervous about doing that.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It's a fair point, but I'm no longer sure what the realistic options are. Among the many reasons it's considered acceptable to belittle Corbyn is his relatively low level of educational qualifications; we've probably passed the point where anyone without a reasonable degree would be able to win a GE as they'd be seen as incapable of running the country ("sure he's qualified to run a leisure centre with his degree in "sports management" but would you want him...." etc etc would be the Crosby schtick).YBarddCwsc said:
My point is rather that the background & life experiences of Owen Smith are the same as the background & life experiences of Ed Miliband. That is not what Labour need.Polruan said:
Dunno, maybe not to be bullied by fuckwits who think that one's parents political beliefs disqualify one from party leadership? The ideological belief in the appropriateness of aggressive tax planning and offshore secrecy jurisdictions doesn't seem to have worked out too badly for Cameron Sr's son.YBarddCwsc said:
He is the son of a Marxist Professor of Cultural History.Polruan said:
10 years BBC radio production, 10 years SPAD. So not exactly real world but equally not as vacuous as the pure PR/SPAD route. Also he didn't study PPE, he's from the north and his BBC career was split between Cardiff and London,Plato_Says said:
Owen seemed so straight and reassuringly sensible. Defo one to watch, what's his background? I find Starmer a bit flashy/attention seeker after his CPS stint.Polruan said:Plato_Says said:Owen Smith Sh DWP is very good on Sky. Haven't seen him before.
Haven't Labour learnt anything from Ed Miliband's tenure ?
Your original post referred to how different he was -- "he didn't study PPE"
If that is what diversity now means at the top of the Labour Party, they're doomed.
If Labour keep on with the attacks on the elite backgrounds of the Tories' ruling clique then it's important not to be led by someone who can be (unfairly) portrayed as coming from a similar "liberal metropolitan elite" or whatever. But given how little traction those attacks have had in any case it's better to stop banging on about it and present policies that are good for "ordinary people" rather than asserting that we have backgrounds that mean we "understand ordinary people" while not being able to back it up.0 -
Latest net migration numbers out: 333k net immigration in 2015 of which 184k is free-market net EU migration (55%) and presumably 149k is non-EU migration (45%), most of which is visa controlled in a planned way by the state (latest asylum claim figures I can see indicate probably around 30k from that category - one would imagine very little difference between gross and net figures there! - Julian Assange perhaps?).
Conclusion, even within the EU, the largest part of 100k of net migration and perhaps more is directly controllable by the British state which, if you take the view that immigration does need to be brought down, would make a very significant difference.
Final thought: result comes out 55/45 in favour of the EU. A portent?0 -
F1: breaking Bianchi's family are suing various groups for Jules Bianchi's death [they describe it as 'avoidable']:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/363862270 -
Me on 30th June.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm fleeing the country on June 26th for an overseas holidayGIN1138 said:
TSE thinks old people who left school at 15 years old and have been in work for 40-50 years are "thickies"?david_herdson said:
How much is that an age thing? It'd be interesting to see the cross-tabs for e.g. the education of the 65+ group / the 18-25 group, though I suspect the sample sizes are too small and not internally balanced.TheScreamingEagles said:I'll refrain from saying thickos back Brexit
https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/735746839429812224
And people who left school and became did apprenticeships to become plumbers, builders, van drivers, construction workers, manual workers, mechanics, etc... Are "Thickies".
I think he may need a long holiday after this referendum, lol.0 -
Indeed. The people who could be convinced by immigration are already in the Leave camp. Now it is like trying to catch flies with vinegar, it will attract as many people as it repels.TheScreamingEagles said:
You shouldn't do that.Casino_Royale said:
I'm really nervous about doing that.TheScreamingEagles said:
All those who think immigration is the number one issue for the country are already voting Leave and from GE 2015 all it does it firm up the soft liberals to back anyone but UKIP, you can see it firming them up for Remain.
Sovereignty and control of our, for lack of a better word, destiny is where the swing needs to come from. Gove, as justice secretary is best placed to make this argument, I hope he can do it in the debates. Given that EU federalists are very open about their desire for the EU to become a functioning state it shouldn't be very difficult to make the case and link a remain vote to enabling federalists and to Dave giving away our veto on EMU integration.0 -
Personally, I prefer the data visualisation on the BM Reports page itself at:rcs1000 said:
Frankly, UK electricity demand is so aneamic right now, that pretty much the entire UK coal fleet is idle. That around 20GW of power stations where the workers have nothing to do, but perform routing maintenance.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
It would be quite funny if they had to pull the plug on the interconnector and we had power cuts the week before th e referendum- unlikely though at this time of year.rcs1000 said:
You want to know what's equally amazing: despite the CGT strike, France is exporting electricity to the UK right now.Plato_Says said:
16/19 nuke plants out today - wow.Alanbrooke said:
I had to laugh when the power stations were taken out on strike, now you can't even charge your electric car.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a tribute to D-Day. Cutting off the essential suppliesAlanbrooke said:Here's tyhe current map of France with petrol stations that have run out of fuel.
Euro 2016 looks a real fan fest if you like walking.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/economie/le-scan-eco/dessous-chiffres/2016/05/21/29006-20160521ARTFIG00134-decouvrez-la-carte-des-penuries-de-carburants-dans-toute-la-france.php
If there's one thing the CGT understand it's how to really screw up the country.
And they don't actually give a shit.
See: http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
I would like to point out that I was the only person on politicalbetting (literally the only one) who said we would not have electricity shortages. I would like some respect for my energy forecasting skills
http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm
Same data though, and good to have the choice.
I would have also not forecast electricity shortages. However, it is inevitable that we'll have to make more use of demand management - i.e. restricting consumption by major industrial consumers at peak demand / low supply times - in the future. It simply doesn't make economic sense to have capacity available to cope with any foreseeable demand at all times. No doubt, though, this will be portrayed as some sort of failure / cock-up by those resisting the move away from fossil fuels.
Edit: Wrong site reference.0 -
I'm horribly elitist and snobbish on these things.Casino_Royale said:
I think TSE sums up what many in the Remain camp actually think.GIN1138 said:
Careful there.TheScreamingEagles said:I'll refrain from saying thickies back Brexit
https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/735746839429812224
A lot of those "thickies" were the sort of people Mrs Thatcher attracted when she was winning landslide after landslide in the 80's and who have since abandoned the the Tories, seemingly never to return.
I find it very hard to have any sympathy for someone who loses out in the job market to someone who just moved to the UK and can barely speak the language.
We have record levels of employment in this country, and a lot of vacancies.
To paraphrase Norman Tebbit, get on your bike and look for work, and don't stop looking until you find a job, there are jobs out there.
And that's why ladies and gentlemen, I never went into politics.0 -
OK, so I wasn't being stupid.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nothing, it is basically one large focus group of 5,000 people.MaxPB said:I read the LA poll, can anyone tell me what the headline VI was for Leave/Remain?
0 -
Whoever thought of a political music festival for a nationist argument was a prize idiot.nunu said:
Lol. Leave couldn't even organise a music festival what makes you think they can win. Sad really. We are stuck with this undemocratic, unreformable organistaion ruling over us for another few decades.Casino_Royale said:Those Ashcroft findings are very interesting and probably not a bad pointer to the result.
Lesson I take away is that this was very winnable for Leave, but Remain are very likely to get a narrow victory now.
The vast majority of bands are either politically neutral or want to ensure their values-signalling is "right on", just like their fans.
The only vaguely patriotic thing you can do with music festivals - and get away with it - is on the monarchy.0
