Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.
Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.
You want to avoid preaching to the converted.
Or preaching to non-voters.
presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says
Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:
* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions. * those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what. * those who will not turn out no matter what.
Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.
Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.
I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?
There is a lot of Remain stuff on my Facebook and twitter. A lot of it is well targetted: Scientists for EU; Healthier In etc.
I have seen no leafleting activity at all for either side, and the only Leave stall I have seen was from Britain First in Leicester last Saturday. They got a pretty poor reception, leaving to chants of "racists are not welcome here".
Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.
Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.
Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.
You want to avoid preaching to the converted.
Or preaching to non-voters.
presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says
Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:
* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions. * those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what. * those who will not turn out no matter what.
Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.
Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.
I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?
Luton is unusual in being solidly Labour, but, according to Yougov, solidly eurosceptic. Kelvin Hopkins probably has a lot of influence on this issue. And the town is very working class. There's probably not much of big AB liberal vote.
Almost two-thirds of voters believe the remain camp will win June’s referendum but pro-leave opinion is hardening, according to polling by the Conservative peer Michael Ashcroft seen exclusively by the Guardian.
In a detailed survey of more than 5,000 adults, Lord Ashcroft and his colleagues found 65% expect the result to be that Britain stays in the EU, while 35% anticipate a Brexit vote.
The apparently decisive verdict demonstrates the impact of almost daily anti-Brexit speeches from the prime minister and chancellor, backed by the full force of the Westminsterestablishment.
Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.
Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.
You want to avoid preaching to the converted.
Or preaching to non-voters.
presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says
Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:
* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions. * those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what. * those who will not turn out no matter what.
Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.
Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.
I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?
I'm not seeing much in my timeline from the vocal Lefties or pro-Remain Tories.
Society (ok there's no such thing) has evolved over millions of years, politicians attempt to stem the flow to their own ends. What I'm gratified to see is that the referendum is exposing bureaucrats for what they are, large parts of the electorate are turning on their own people, political parties, as they begin to realise they've been duped.
The outcome is irrelevant to me now, and that is from somebody who has been anti EU for a decade. When I see some of the PM's most enthusiastic supporters turn against him I know the mood is changing. We're sick of Blair/Cameron stand for nothing bullshitters, this referendum will see a pivotal change in politics. OK there'll still be the TSE/Nabavi sycophants, but this signals the end of tribalism, bring it on.
Interesting comment below the line in the Guardian - the strikes in France - "
Right now the socialist Mr Hollande proposes a law to liberalise working conditions ,( this is one of the strong recommandations of European commission for France (14 july 2015)) At the same time in Belgium , right wing government proposes the same law for the same reason… and socialist opposition party demonstrates against this law…"
So if rolling back worker protections is one of the "strong recommandations of European commission", why does the Labour elite think that being in the EU will protect worker rights here? Perhaps they think only of the elites's job propects?
Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.
Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.
You want to avoid preaching to the converted.
Or preaching to non-voters.
presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says
Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:
* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions. * those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what. * those who will not turn out no matter what.
Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.
Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.
I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?
I have seen Remain in the Street once but not Leave had leaflets through the post from both campaigns though
Trump is a year older than Clinton. The decisive factor may well be which way Bernie Sanders' supporters jump: Clinton as the Democrat; Trump as the outsider; stay at home.
Sanders supporters will go Clinton just as the vast majority of GOP primary voters have opted for Trump.
This is a 3D election
Demographics - Favours Clinton Differential Turnout - Democrat Hispanic voter registration spiking in swing states. Disdain - Who is the least worst candidate - Polling favours Clinton marginally.
Trump has the white working class (called middle class over there) mens vote in the bag.
It al depends whether the WWC women identify themselves as white or wimmin.
Sadly American politics are becoming very Rhodesianised - the logical result of identity politics championed by the left
Trump will comfortably win the white vote as the GOP always do, at the moment he does a bit better with the wwc than Romney but slightly worse with white college graduates
Interesting comment below the line in the Guardian - the strikes in France - "
Right now the socialist Mr Hollande proposes a law to liberalise working conditions ,( this is one of the strong recommandations of European commission for France (14 july 2015)) At the same time in Belgium , right wing government proposes the same law for the same reason… and socialist opposition party demonstrates against this law…"
So if rolling back worker protections is one of the "strong recommandations of European commission", why does the Labour elite think that being in the EU will protect worker rights here? Perhaps they think only of the elites's job propects?
It's time this EU/worker's rights bollox was exposed as the lie it is. What's the minimum wage in Hungary?
Scratch that, Osborne has re-named it the living wage. I mean, a living wage? Who votes for these fucking idiots?
One thing that I can't get my head round is why so many people on this site are seemingly so fixated by trade deals. Looking around my study and just about everything in it, save the books and the pictures, has been manufactured in and imported from a country with which we do not have a free trade deal let alone are part of some single market. Even the wine I am drinking (Cook's Bay, a nice Sauvignon Blanc from New Zealand, and a snip at £6.50 a bottle - Frog stuff of equivalent quality would be two or three times the price).
Not being part of the single market or even having a free trade deal doesn't stop the exporters in Japan, South Korea, China, New Zealand or even bloody Australia selling their stuff to me at prices I am prepared to pay (much of it very reasonable in my view).
So why all this fuss about the Single Market of 500 million souls? If a company is producing something that someone else wants to buy at a price the customer is prepared to pay then they will make sales and the single market doesn't matter a hoot.
In fairness it did matter a lot more at the time that the single market was launched 20 odd years ago when trade tariffs and NTBs were much more significant. But the trade off (sorry) has changed radically over that period and the problems being caused to this country in particular by freedom of movement within that single market exceed the gains by a considerable margin.
Personally, I believe that we would retain the single market benefits if we leave anyway. It is just too much in the interests of both parties to maintain it. I accept that there is a risk and even that there may be some very short term adverse effects from the uncertainty but as the Andrew Lilico piece shows even if I am wrong the adverse effects are ultimately tiny.
If we leave it won't be two sides, it will be the UK and 27 other sides. Some countries would keep things as they are, others wouldn't. Most would probably mix and match depending on specific perceptions of what would be most advantageous.
What matters about the single market is that those UK companies that operate within it are set up to operate within it. They take for granted efficiencies and cost savings they may no longer be there when we leave.
Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.
Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.
You want to avoid preaching to the converted.
Or preaching to non-voters.
presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says
Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:
* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions. * those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what. * those who will not turn out no matter what.
Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.
Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.
I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?
There is a lot of Remain stuff on my Facebook and twitter. A lot of it is well targetted: Scientists for EU; Healthier In etc.
I have seen no leafleting activity at all for either side, and the only Leave stall I have seen was from Britain First in Leicester last Saturday. They got a pretty poor reception, leaving to chants of "racists are not welcome here".
Absolutely nothing here from either side, except a few big Leave banners in fields outside town.
Mr. Dugarbandier, not sure I necessarily agree with that, but if it were to happen that would be similar to Rome, when loyalty shifted from the patrician and plebeian parties towards specific individuals (not least because of army reforms that helped make generals rather than 'the state' the focus of loyalty).
Hopefully we'll avoid a return of Milo and Clodius, but if it were to happen one imagines cultural sensitivities would reduce reporting in certain areas.
One thing that I can't get my head round is why so many people on this site are seemingly so fixated by trade deals. Looking around my study and just about everything in it, save the books and the pictures, has been manufactured in and imported from a country with which we do not have a free trade deal let alone are part of some single market. Even the wine I am drinking (Cook's Bay, a nice Sauvignon Blanc from New Zealand, and a snip at £6.50 a bottle - Frog stuff of equivalent quality would be two or three times the price).
Not being part of the single market or even having a free trade deal doesn't stop the exporters in Japan, South Korea, China, New Zealand or even bloody Australia selling their stuff to me at prices I am prepared to pay (much of it very reasonable in my view).
So why all this fuss about the Single Market of 500 million souls? If a company is producing something that someone else wants to buy at a price the customer is prepared to pay then they will make sales and the single market doesn't matter a hoot.
In fairness it did matter a lot more at the time that the single market was launched 20 odd years ago when trade tariffs and NTBs were much more significant. But the trade off (sorry) has changed radically over that period and the problems being caused to this country in particular by freedom of movement within that single market exceed the gains by a considerable margin.
Personally, I believe that we would retain the single market benefits if we leave anyway. It is just too much in the interests of both parties to maintain it. I accept that there is a risk and even that there may be some very short term adverse effects from the uncertainty but as the Andrew Lilico piece shows even if I am wrong the adverse effects are ultimately tiny.
If we leave it won't be two sides, it will be the UK and 27 other sides. Some countries would keep things as they are, others wouldn't. Most would probably mix and match depending on specific perceptions of what would be most advantageous.
What matters about the single market is that those UK companies that operate within it are set up to operate within it. They take for granted efficiencies and cost savings they may no longer be there when we leave.
Of the 27 other sides, how many would we be negatively affected by? It's a nonsense, Malta, Hungary etc, lovely places, lovely people, we simply don't need any sort of political union with them.
Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.
Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.
You want to avoid preaching to the converted.
Or preaching to non-voters.
presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says
Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:
* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions. * those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what. * those who will not turn out no matter what.
Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.
Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.
I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?
There were two groups of 'in' campaigners working Beverley town centre last Saturday - the core campaign and the local Labour group.
Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.
Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.
You want to avoid preaching to the converted.
Or preaching to non-voters.
presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says
Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:
* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions. * those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what. * those who will not turn out no matter what.
Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.
Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.
I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?
Luton is unusual in being solidly Labour, but, according to Yougov, solidly eurosceptic. Kelvin Hopkins probably has a lot of influence on this issue. And the town is very working class. There's probably not much of big AB liberal vote.
Luton also has a lot of ethnic voters though, most of whom will back Remain
and another comment " I am told there are valid reasons to be worried about the proposed reforms which are written loosely enough to enable the introduction of zero-hour contracts and unpaid internships on a scale comparable to the UK" - so zero contracts are opposed by Labour but will be imposed by the EU.
Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.
Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.
You want to avoid preaching to the converted.
Or preaching to non-voters.
presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says
Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:
* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions. * those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what. * those who will not turn out no matter what.
Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.
Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.
I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?
I have seen Remain in the Street once but not Leave had leaflets through the post from both campaigns though
It's obvious that Remain is relying on the government, BBC and all the apparatus of the Big Banks and wealthy oligarchy to help them.
Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.
Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.
You want to avoid preaching to the converted.
Or preaching to non-voters.
presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says
Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:
* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions. * those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what. * those who will not turn out no matter what.
Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.
Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.
I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?
There were two groups of 'in' campaigners working Beverley town centre last Saturday - the core campaign and the local Labour group.
Despite my best efforts to persuade her not to, one of my colleagues has (with her husband) been out canvassing for Remain most evenings. She claims that there are 30-40 Remain canvassers on her part of London (Chadwick).
One thing that I can't get my head round is why so many people on this site are seemingly so fixated by trade deals. Looking around my study and just about everything in it, save the books and the pictures, has been manufactured in and imported from a country with which we do not have a free trade deal let alone are part of some single market. Even the wine I am drinking (Cook's Bay, a nice Sauvignon Blanc from New Zealand, and a snip at £6.50 a bottle - Frog stuff of equivalent quality would be two or three times the price).
Not being part of the single market or even having a free trade deal doesn't stop the exporters in Japan, South Korea, China, New Zealand or even bloody Australia selling their stuff to me at prices I am prepared to pay (much of it very reasonable in my view).
So why all this fuss about the Single Market of 500 million souls? If a company is producing something that someone else wants to buy at a price the customer is prepared to pay then they will make sales and the single market doesn't matter a hoot.
In fairness it did matter a lot more at the time that the single market was launched 20 odd years ago when trade tariffs and NTBs were much more significant. But the trade off (sorry) has changed radically over that period and the problems being caused to this country in particular by freedom of movement within that single market exceed the gains by a considerable margin.
Personally, I believe that we would retain the single market benefits if we leave anyway. It is just too much in the interests of both parties to maintain it. I accept that there is a risk and even that there may be some very short term adverse effects from the uncertainty but as the Andrew Lilico piece shows even if I am wrong the adverse effects are ultimately tiny.
If we leave it won't be two sides, it will be the UK and 27 other sides. Some countries would keep things as they are, others wouldn't. Most would probably mix and match depending on specific perceptions of what would be most advantageous.
What matters about the single market is that those UK companies that operate within it are set up to operate within it. They take for granted efficiencies and cost savings they may no longer be there when we leave.
Of the 27 other sides, how many would we be negatively affected by? It's a nonsense, Malta, Hungary etc, lovely places, lovely people, we simply don't need any sort of political union with them.
Interesting comment below the line in the Guardian - the strikes in France - "
Right now the socialist Mr Hollande proposes a law to liberalise working conditions ,( this is one of the strong recommandations of European commission for France (14 july 2015)) At the same time in Belgium , right wing government proposes the same law for the same reason… and socialist opposition party demonstrates against this law…"
So if rolling back worker protections is one of the "strong recommandations of European commission", why does the Labour elite think that being in the EU will protect worker rights here? Perhaps they think only of the elites's job propects?
It's time this EU/worker's rights bollox was exposed as the lie it is. What's the minimum wage in Hungary?
Scratch that, Osborne has re-named it the living wage. I mean, a living wage? Who votes for these fucking idiots?
The lower the level of "worker's rights", the lower the level of unemployment.
Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.
Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.
You want to avoid preaching to the converted.
Or preaching to non-voters.
presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says
Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:
* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions. * those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what. * those who will not turn out no matter what.
Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.
Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.
I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?
I have seen Remain in the Street once but not Leave had leaflets through the post from both campaigns though
It's obvious that Remain is relying on the government, BBC and all the apparatus of the Big Banks and wealthy oligarchy to help them.
Well yes but they still have to man street stalls and hand out leaflets and most of the newspapers are still anti EU
Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.
Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.
You want to avoid preaching to the converted.
Or preaching to non-voters.
presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says
Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:
* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions. * those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what. * those who will not turn out no matter what.
Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.
Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.
I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?
I have seen Remain in the Street once but not Leave had leaflets through the post from both campaigns though
It's obvious that Remain is relying on the government, BBC and all the apparatus of the Big Banks and wealthy oligarchy to help them.
It's not like the Tories or by collateral benefit UKIP ever relied on all the apparatus of Big Banks, Big Media and Wealthy Oligarchs at all is it? Hilarious how much outers are whining now the boot is on the other foot.
One thing that I can't get my head round is why so many people on this site are seemingly so fixated by trade deals. Looking around my study and just about everything in it, save the books and the pictures, has been manufactured in and imported from a country with which we do not have a free trade deal let alone are part of some single market. Even the wine I am drinking (Cook's Bay, a nice Sauvignon Blanc from New Zealand, and a snip at £6.50 a bottle - Frog stuff of equivalent quality would be two or three times the price).
Not being part of the single market or even having a free trade deal doesn't stop the exporters in Japan, South Korea, China, New Zealand or even bloody Australia selling their stuff to me at prices I am prepared to pay (much of it very reasonable in my view).
So why all this fuss about the Single Market of 500 million souls? If a company is producing something that someone else wants to buy at a price the customer is prepared to pay then they will make sales and the single market doesn't matter a hoot.
In fairness it did matter a lot more at the time that the single market was launched 20 odd years ago when trade tariffs and NTBs were much more significant. But the trade off (sorry) has changed radically over that period and the problems being caused to this country in particular by freedom of movement within that single market exceed the gains by a considerable margin.
Personally, I believe that we would retain the single market benefits if we leave anyway. It is just too much in the interests of both parties to maintain it. I accept that there is a risk and even that there may be some very short term adverse effects from the uncertainty but as the Andrew Lilico piece shows even if I am wrong the adverse effects are ultimately tiny.
If we leave it won't be two sides, it will be the UK and 27 other sides. Some countries would keep things as they are, others wouldn't. Most would probably mix and match depending on specific perceptions of what would be most advantageous.
What matters about the single market is that those UK companies that operate within it are set up to operate within it. They take for granted efficiencies and cost savings they may no longer be there when we leave.
Of the 27 other sides, how many would we be negatively affected by? It's a nonsense, Malta, Hungary etc, lovely places, lovely people, we simply don't need any sort of political union with them.
Yes, you'll have to use your own imagination, which you find difficult. You prefer to parrot the thoughts of other people.
Why don't you just stop obsessing about me and go out and campaign for Leave.
I do, while you spend your life on here some of us get on with real things, mix with a wide range of people. I hosted an event where the speakers were a tory and a labour man, both very nice. You must get sciatica from all the backslapping you do.
Yes, you'll have to use your own imagination, which you find difficult. You prefer to parrot the thoughts of other people.
Why don't you just stop obsessing about me and go out and campaign for Leave.
You make a good point: my colleague (what is campaigning for Remain) would never be seen dead on a forum like this. She'd rather be pounding the streets, knocking on doors, and delivering leaflets. Maybe we Leavers should spend more time working for Out , and less time on here.
Society (ok there's no such thing) has evolved over millions of years, politicians attempt to stem the flow to their own ends. What I'm gratified to see is that the referendum is exposing bureaucrats for what they are, large parts of the electorate are turning on their own people, political parties, as they begin to realise they've been duped.
The outcome is irrelevant to me now, and that is from somebody who has been anti EU for a decade. When I see some of the PM's most enthusiastic supporters turn against him I know the mood is changing. We're sick of Blair/Cameron stand for nothing bullshitters, this referendum will see a pivotal change in politics. OK there'll still be the TSE/Nabavi sycophants, but this signals the end of tribalism, bring it on.
I'm sure it won't last too long, but I did enjoy Eagles sticking it to Ozzie yesterday
I have had no remain/leave leaflets but have had the government's leaflet, the electoral commission leaflet and what looked like the Remain formal flyer with Baroness Brady, Martin Lewis on etc. I assume Leave will use their free formal flyer later in the campaign?
I am keen to leaflet for Leave. Do you get sent leaflets or have to purchase them via their store?
rcs1000 "The lower the level of "worker's rights", the lower the level of unemployment." - zero hour contract until you are 45, 50 - then you are on the scrap tip? Is this different from the Lump?
Yes, you'll have to use your own imagination, which you find difficult. You prefer to parrot the thoughts of other people.
Why don't you just stop obsessing about me and go out and campaign for Leave.
You make a good point: my colleague (what is campaigning for Remain) would never be seen dead on a forum like this. She'd rather be pounding the streets, knocking on doors, and delivering leaflets. Maybe we Leavers should spend more time working for Out , and less time on here.
I enjoyed campaigning the other night, SeanT needed to be sedated when I told him, I'll be doing some more canvassing tonight, in a less glamorous part of Sheffield
And yes, Less glamorous = Somewhere more Leave friendly
This is the whole crux, we are in a political union with other countries, it is a ridiculous state of affairs, completely unnecessary, a waste of taxpayer's money.
Yes, you'll have to use your own imagination, which you find difficult. You prefer to parrot the thoughts of other people.
Why don't you just stop obsessing about me and go out and campaign for Leave.
You make a good point: my colleague (what is campaigning for Remain) would never be seen dead on a forum like this. She'd rather be pounding the streets, knocking on doors, and delivering leaflets. Maybe we Leavers should spend more time working for Out , and less time on here.
I enjoyed campaigning the other night, SeanT needed to be sedated when I told him, I'll be doing some more canvassing tonight, in a less glamorous part of Sheffield
And yes, Less glamorous = Somewhere more Leave friendly
Sheffield less glamorous you say? no such place, shirley
Close and Sanders finishing strongly. If Hillary were indicted Sanders could get the nomination at the convention
PPIC have a 538 A- rating but this poll is something of an outlier. Clearly if Clinton is out then Sanders will be the nominee.
California is a solid Democratic state with lots of liberal voters it is not that surprising Sanders is competitive. I agree in the unlikely event Hillary is forced out Sanders gets the nomination, he would only need to persuade a few former Hillary delegates to switch to him to clinch it
Society (ok there's no such thing) has evolved over millions of years, politicians attempt to stem the flow to their own ends. What I'm gratified to see is that the referendum is exposing bureaucrats for what they are, large parts of the electorate are turning on their own people, political parties, as they begin to realise they've been duped.
The outcome is irrelevant to me now, and that is from somebody who has been anti EU for a decade. When I see some of the PM's most enthusiastic supporters turn against him I know the mood is changing. We're sick of Blair/Cameron stand for nothing bullshitters, this referendum will see a pivotal change in politics. OK there'll still be the TSE/Nabavi sycophants, but this signals the end of tribalism, bring it on.
I'm sure it won't last too long, but I did enjoy Eagles sticking it to Ozzie yesterday
Didn't see it, but I like her (I think there's 2 of them actually).
Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.
Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.
You want to avoid preaching to the converted.
Or preaching to non-voters.
presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says
Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:
* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions. * those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what. * those who will not turn out no matter what.
Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.
Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.
I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?
Luton is unusual in being solidly Labour, but, according to Yougov, solidly eurosceptic. Kelvin Hopkins probably has a lot of influence on this issue. And the town is very working class. There's probably not much of big AB liberal vote.
Luton also has a lot of ethnic voters though, most of whom will back Remain
I rather doubt it. The commonwealth ones will vote brexit to end the discrimination agsinst commonwealth citizens versus EU citizens and the non commonwealth ones cant vote
F1: first practice starts in just under half an hour.
For those unaware, Monaco is weird. No practice on Fridays, with the first two sessions occurring on Thursday because there's a religious occasion on Friday.
Close and Sanders finishing strongly. If Hillary were indicted Sanders could get the nomination at the convention
PPIC have a 538 A- rating but this poll is something of an outlier. Clearly if Clinton is out then Sanders will be the nominee.
Oh ho! JackW's kilt is starting to flutter in the wind. His pet panther is now spotless in preparation for the BIG CHANGE. He really should be giving his ARSE a good douching. We can call it Sanders Soft Soap.
This is the whole crux, we are in a political union with other countries, it is a ridiculous state of affairs, completely unnecessary, a waste of taxpayer's money.
And a flag, and anthem. It's all very obvious. Saw elsewhere they want to control how much TV advertising we see, and want more product placement - WTF has that do with the EU?
Yes, you'll have to use your own imagination, which you find difficult. You prefer to parrot the thoughts of other people.
Why don't you just stop obsessing about me and go out and campaign for Leave.
You make a good point: my colleague (what is campaigning for Remain) would never be seen dead on a forum like this. She'd rather be pounding the streets, knocking on doors, and delivering leaflets. Maybe we Leavers should spend more time working for Out , and less time on here.
I enjoyed campaigning the other night, SeanT needed to be sedated when I told him, I'll be doing some more canvassing tonight, in a less glamorous part of Sheffield
And yes, Less glamorous = Somewhere more Leave friendly
Sheffield less glamorous you say? no such place, shirley
Is a relative thing. Sheffield is absolutely awesome compared every other city in the known universe, but there are some bits that aren't as glamorous as Dore.
Mr. Dugarbandier, not sure I necessarily agree with that, but if it were to happen that would be similar to Rome, when loyalty shifted from the patrician and plebeian parties towards specific individuals (not least because of army reforms that helped make generals rather than 'the state' the focus of loyalty).
Hopefully we'll avoid a return of Milo and Clodius, but if it were to happen one imagines cultural sensitivities would reduce reporting in certain areas.
you've sent me to wiki I'm afraid. I like the sound of this lad:
His homonymous son, Publius Claudius Pulcher (born c. 62–59 BC – aft. 31 BC), turned out badly: a lethargic nonentity who only rose to the praetorship after 31 BC under the Second Triumvirs and died amid scandals of luxurious excess and an obsessive attachment to a common prostitute.
Yes, you'll have to use your own imagination, which you find difficult. You prefer to parrot the thoughts of other people.
Why don't you just stop obsessing about me and go out and campaign for Leave.
You make a good point: my colleague (what is campaigning for Remain) would never be seen dead on a forum like this. She'd rather be pounding the streets, knocking on doors, and delivering leaflets. Maybe we Leavers should spend more time working for Out , and less time on here.
I enjoyed campaigning the other night, SeanT needed to be sedated when I told him, I'll be doing some more canvassing tonight, in a less glamorous part of Sheffield
And yes, Less glamorous = Somewhere more Leave friendly
Sheffield less glamorous you say? no such place, shirley
Is a relative thing. Sheffield is absolutely awesome compared every other city in the known universe, but there are some bits that aren't as glamorous as Dore.
Dear God... Tories I will put up with. Tykes ditto. But Tory Tykes - definitely a bridge too far. You aren't Geoffrey Boycott by any chance, are you?
Society (ok there's no such thing) has evolved over millions of years, politicians attempt to stem the flow to their own ends. What I'm gratified to see is that the referendum is exposing bureaucrats for what they are, large parts of the electorate are turning on their own people, political parties, as they begin to realise they've been duped.
The outcome is irrelevant to me now, and that is from somebody who has been anti EU for a decade. When I see some of the PM's most enthusiastic supporters turn against him I know the mood is changing. We're sick of Blair/Cameron stand for nothing bullshitters, this referendum will see a pivotal change in politics. OK there'll still be the TSE/Nabavi sycophants, but this signals the end of tribalism, bring it on.
I'm sure it won't last too long, but I did enjoy Eagles sticking it to Ozzie yesterday
Didn't see it, but I like her (I think there's 2 of them actually).
One thing that I can't get my head round is why so many people on this site are seemingly so fixated by trade deals. Looking around my study and just about everything in it, save the books and the pictures, has been manufactured in and imported from a country with which we do not have a free trade deal let alone are part of some single market. Even the wine I am drinking (Cook's Bay, a nice Sauvignon Blanc from New Zealand, and a snip at £6.50 a bottle - Frog stuff of equivalent quality would be two or three times the price).
Not being part of the single market or even having a free trade deal doesn't stop the exporters in Japan, South Korea, China, New Zealand or even bloody Australia selling their stuff to me at prices I am prepared to pay (much of it very reasonable in my view).
So why all this fuss about the Single Market of 500 million souls? If a company is producing something that someone else wants to buy at a price the customer is prepared to pay then they will make sales and the single market doesn't matter a hoot.
In fairness it did matter a lot more at the time that the single market was launched 20 odd years ago when trade tariffs and NTBs were much more significant. But the trade off (sorry) has changed radically over that period and the problems being caused to this country in particular by freedom of movement within that single market exceed the gains by a considerable margin.
Personally, I believe that we would retain the single market benefits if we leave anyway. It is just too much in the interests of both parties to maintain it. I accept that there is a risk and even that there may be some very short term adverse effects from the uncertainty but as the Andrew Lilico piece shows even if I am wrong the adverse effects are ultimately tiny.
You mean that you, like me and every other sensible Leaver, favour EFTA/EEA?
A solution which would have largely eliminated all the propaganda, that would have enabled much more of the business community to sign up to Leave, that would have cut immigration, removed us from political union, and saved us billions a year.
But somehow, that wasn't enough, and therefore we're going to get Remain.
Trump has the white working class (called middle class over there) mens vote in the bag.
It al depends whether the WWC women identify themselves as white or wimmin.
Sadly American politics are becoming very Rhodesianised - the logical result of identity politics championed by the left
Certainly true that Trump performs well with WWC but presently the polling and voting numbers indicate he is only marginally performing better that Romney in a demographic that is falling. Each cycle the GOP contender has to squeeze a greater proportion of WWC just to stand still.
The swing states are all trending blue with the exception of Pennsylvania that is edging red at the margin. Trump has to near run the table of swing states to win. He is very keen to talk about a wall to keep Hispanics out. The irony being that in keenly contested states like Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio and perhaps even Arizona it will be the Hispanic bloc that builds a wall against Trump reaching the White House.
It is the decline in relwtive white population that is the danger. When it reaches the point that hegemony feels threatened they put aside differences and vote tribally.
Had there been a policy of assimilation into a menoncultureish multy racial society then it might have been avoided but the progressives decided to persue identity politics for ethnic minorities and it dudnt occur to them that the ethnic majority might catch on and play the same game.
Oh ho! JackW's kilt is starting to flutter in the wind. His pet panther is now spotless in preparation for the BIG CHANGE. He really should be giving his ARSE a good douching. We can call it Sanders Soft Soap.
With soap in hand it sounds like your angling to be an ARSE hand maiden.
Interesting comment below the line in the Guardian - the strikes in France - "
Right now the socialist Mr Hollande proposes a law to liberalise working conditions ,( this is one of the strong recommandations of European commission for France (14 july 2015)) At the same time in Belgium , right wing government proposes the same law for the same reason… and socialist opposition party demonstrates against this law…"
So if rolling back worker protections is one of the "strong recommandations of European commission", why does the Labour elite think that being in the EU will protect worker rights here? Perhaps they think only of the elites's job propects?
It's time this EU/worker's rights bollox was exposed as the lie it is. What's the minimum wage in Hungary?
Scratch that, Osborne has re-named it the living wage. I mean, a living wage? Who votes for these fucking idiots?
The lower the level of "worker's rights", the lower the level of unemployment.
Chinese unemployment rate is 4 %, by extrapolation the UK unemployment rate must be 83% or so.
Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.
Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.
You want to avoid preaching to the converted.
Or preaching to non-voters.
presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says
Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:
* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions. * those will will vote for you and turnout no ay from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.
Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.
I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?
Luton is unusual in being solidly Labour, but, according to Yougov, solidly eurosceptic. Kelvin Hopkins probably has a lot of influence on this issue. And the town is very working class. There's probably not much of big AB liberal vote.
Luton also has a lot of ethnic voters though, most of whom will back Remain
I rather doubt it. The commonwealth ones will vote brexit to end the discrimination agsinst commonwealth citizens versus EU citizens and the non commonwealth ones cant vote
Inner London as Opinium showed yesterday is overwhelmingly In partly because of the ethnic vote, they perceive Leave as anti immigration regardless of where it comes from
There is a lot of Remain stuff on my Facebook and twitter. A lot of it is well targetted: Scientists for EU; Healthier In etc.
I have seen no leafleting activity at all for either side, and the only Leave stall I have seen was from Britain First in Leicester last Saturday. They got a pretty poor reception, leaving to chants of "racists are not welcome here".
It would be an interesting social experiment to analyse what people see through various forms of social media and how much that matches their own views.
On FB I see a lot of UKIP backed Leave material but would discount that as indicative of anything because I have lots of active UKIP associates.
More interestingly I have some 400+ friends and associates from various walks of life (work, writing, games, history etc as well as family and friends) and from them almost everything about the referendum - and there is a fair bit even after excluding the UKIP stuff - is pro-Leave. Very few Pro-Remain postings at all.
I don't for a minute think this is representative of wider opinion but comparing Dr Fox and my FB experiences clearly shows how difficult it is to use social media as any measure of overall opinion given how complex the relationships are that we develop online.
I have had no remain/leave leaflets but have had the government's leaflet, the electoral commission leaflet and what looked like the Remain formal flyer with Baroness Brady, Martin Lewis on etc. I assume Leave will use their free formal flyer later in the campaign?
I am keen to leaflet for Leave. Do you get sent leaflets or have to purchase them via their store?
I got a thousand sent to me. No cost. Which part of the country are you in?
Trump has the white working class (called middle class over there) mens vote in the bag.
It al depends whether the WWC women identify themselves as white or wimmin.
Sadly American politics are becoming very Rhodesianised - the logical result of identity politics championed by the left
Certainly true that Trump performs well with WWC but presently the polling and voting numbers indicate he is only marginally performing better that Romney in a demographic that is falling. Each cycle the GOP contender has to squeeze a greater proportion of WWC just to stand still.
The swing states are all trending blue with the exception of Pennsylvania that is edging red at the margin. Trump has to near run the table of swing states to win. He is very keen to talk about a wall to keep Hispanics out. The irony being that in keenly contested states like Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio and perhaps even Arizona it will be the Hispanic bloc that builds a wall against Trump reaching the White House.
It is the decline in relwtive white population that is the danger. When it reaches the point that hegemony feels threatened they put aside differences and vote tribally.
Had there been a policy of assimilation into a menoncultureish multy racial society then it might have been avoided but the progressives decided to persue identity politics for ethnic minorities and it dudnt occur to them that the ethnic majority might catch on and play the same game.
The Republicans have won the white vote at every election since 1964, LBJ was the last Democrat to win the white vote though Bill Clinton won white women in 1996
Trump has the white working class (called middle class over there) mens vote in the bag.
It al depends whether the WWC women identify themselves as white or wimmin.
Sadly American politics are becoming very Rhodesianised - the logical result of identity politics championed by the left
Certainly true that Trump performs well with WWC but presently the polling and voting numbers indicate he is only marginally performing better that Romney in a demographic that is falling. Each cycle the GOP contender has to squeeze a greater proportion of WWC just to stand still.
The swing states are all trending blue with the exception of Pennsylvania that is edging red at the margin. Trump has to near run the table of swing states to win. He is very keen to talk about a wall to keep Hispanics out. The irony being that in keenly contested states like Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio and perhaps even Arizona it will be the Hispanic bloc that builds a wall against Trump reaching the White House.
It is the decline in relwtive white population that is the danger. When it reaches the point that hegemony feels threatened they put aside differences and vote tribally.
Had there been a policy of assimilation into a menoncultureish multy racial society then it might have been avoided but the progressives decided to persue identity politics for ethnic minorities and it dudnt occur to them that the ethnic majority might catch on and play the same game.
And that point has been reached in large parts of the USA. It only remains to be seen how large the Democrat vote for Trump will be and the effect this has on the Electoral College.
Trump has the white working class (called middle class over there) mens vote in the bag.
It al depends whether the WWC women identify themselves as white or wimmin.
Sadly American politics are becoming very Rhodesianised - the logical result of identity politics championed by the left
Certainly true that Trump performs well with WWC but presently the polling and voting numbers indicate he is only marginally performing better that Romney in a demographic that is falling. Each cycle the GOP contender has to squeeze a greater proportion of WWC just to stand still.
The swing states are all trending blue with the exception of Pennsylvania that is edging red at the margin. Trump has to near run the table of swing states to win. He is very keen to talk about a wall to keep Hispanics out. The irony being that in keenly contested states like Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio and perhaps even Arizona it will be the Hispanic bloc that builds a wall against Trump reaching the White House.
It is the decline in relwtive white population that is the danger. When it reaches the point that hegemony feels threatened they put aside differences and vote tribally.
Had there been a policy of assimilation into a menoncultureish multy racial society then it might have been avoided but the progressives decided to persue identity politics for ethnic minorities and it dudnt occur to them that the ethnic majority might catch on and play the same game.
The idea that it was the 'progressives' that first pursued identity politics and prevented a multiracial society in America shows a laughable ignorance of history at best and outright dishonesty at worst.
'New estimates, drawn up to help councils and the NHS plan ahead, expose the full impact of years of mass immigration on top of a revolution in life expectancy.
Immigration is set to account for almost half of the expected population expansion, which would also official rank London as one of the world’s megacities – passing the 10 million mark - for the first time.
The dramatic figures - click here for an interactive map - published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), come ahead of the latest immigration tally - the last before the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union.'
Inner London as Opinium showed yesterday is overwhelmingly In partly because of the ethnic vote, they perceive Leave as anti immigration regardless of where it comes from
But london has a huge ethnic EU and non commonwealth population that are disbarred from this vote and people from the subcontinent are furious abput the hoops they have to jump through while EU citizens can just walk in .
Also Luton is a very different place to inner London
I find it incredibly bizarre that there is so much scepticism about the effect "workers rights" have on unemployment.
Really, it's very simply: demand for labour - like any other good - is price elastic. If you put artificial rules in place that increase its cost, then demand for it falls. Take the tube drivers; it is because tube drivers are expensive, and have heavily unionised rates, that TFL is going to end up going with driverless trains. It is because the print workers had so many rules and regulations (dreamt up by their union) that the newspapers invested in the alternative.
"David Cameron has echoed this in an interview with Saga magazine, warning Britain’s elderly that they could lose their "dignity in retirement” as their pensions could be at risk due to Brexit. "
Owen Smith Sh DWP is very good on Sky. Haven't seen him before.
Yeah, he's a good guy. At the moment I'd see him and Starmer as the two most plausible unifying candidates if Corbyn agreed to stand down explicitly urging his supporters to back a leader who would try and tread a middle ground between the two wings of the party. It's not clear that that would be rightwing enough for the Blairites to play too, but right now I think either of them would beat the Burnham/Cooper/Kendall representatives.
Close and Sanders finishing strongly. If Hillary were indicted Sanders could get the nomination at the convention
PPIC have a 538 A- rating but this poll is something of an outlier. Clearly if Clinton is out then Sanders will be the nominee.
California is a solid Democratic state with lots of liberal voters it is not that surprising Sanders is competitive. I agree in the unlikely event Hillary is forced out Sanders gets the nomination, he would only need to persuade a few former Hillary delegates to switch to him to clinch it
Until 1992 California was reliably Republican at Presidential elections , having voted Democrat only once - ie the LBJ landslide in 1964.
Ah yes, the joys of canvassing and leafleting. Easier in May and June than March and April in terms of weather and light. Here in downtown East Ham all we've had is the local Communist Party leafleting one night at the tube station inviting us all to a public meeting.
I'm still to be convinced of the level of public engagement. There's hearing about it and thinking about it. The week of the Bank Holiday is half term and some people will be on holiday and others will simply not be working.
That gives three solid campaigning weeks from the beginning of the month.
It occurred to me on the way home from work that, in the medium to long term, a win for LEAVE would be the better result for the Conservative Party. Yes, there would be a short term crisis over Cameron and Osborne but the Party is, if nothing else, desperate to be seen to be reflecting the public mood so a pro-LEAVE figure will quickly emerge and will start by, I would imagine, making overtures to UKIP members and supporters to invite them "home", perhaps offering Farage a seat on the negotiating team.
What then for the pro-REMAIN dissidents within the Conservative Party and elsewhere ? Politically, their future would be bleak - no chance of another referendum of course - so they either accept the democratic will and make the best of it or drop away.
In politics, winning isn't everything, sometimes it isn't the end of your troubles but only the beginning.
Close and Sanders finishing strongly. If Hillary were indicted Sanders could get the nomination at the convention
PPIC have a 538 A- rating but this poll is something of an outlier. Clearly if Clinton is out then Sanders will be the nominee.
California is a solid Democratic state with lots of liberal voters it is not that surprising Sanders is competitive. I agree in the unlikely event Hillary is forced out Sanders gets the nomination, he would only need to persuade a few former Hillary delegates to switch to him to clinch it
Until 1992 California was reliably Republican at Presidential elections , having voted Democrat only once - ie the LBJ landslide in 1964.
Nixon and Reagan being candidates for quite a few of those elections helped but yes, it's swung Blue in quite a big way for all that.
I find it incredibly bizarre that there is so much scepticism about the effect "workers rights" have on unemployment.
Really, it's very simply: demand for labour - like any other good - is price elastic. If you put artificial rules in place that increase its cost, then demand for it falls. Take the tube drivers; it is because tube drivers are expensive, and have heavily unionised rates, that TFL is going to end up going with driverless trains. It is because the print workers had so many rules and regulations (dreamt up by their union) that the newspapers invested in the alternative.
I'd no idea how serious the print union pay racket was until the late 80s when I met a man who'd just been made redundant from a national paper. He was just a cog and on £68k plus OT, goodies, pension etc.
Ah yes, the joys of canvassing and leafleting. Easier in May and June than March and April in terms of weather and light. Here in downtown East Ham all we've had is the local Communist Party leafleting one night at the tube station inviting us all to a public meeting.
I'm still to be convinced of the level of public engagement. There's hearing about it and thinking about it. The week of the Bank Holiday is half term and some people will be on holiday and others will simply not be working.
That gives three solid campaigning weeks from the beginning of the month.
It occurred to me on the way home from work that, in the medium to long term, a win for LEAVE would be the better result for the Conservative Party. Yes, there would be a short term crisis over Cameron and Osborne but the Party is, if nothing else, desperate to be seen to be reflecting the public mood so a pro-LEAVE figure will quickly emerge and will start by, I would imagine, making overtures to UKIP members and supporters to invite them "home", perhaps offering Farage a seat on the negotiating team.
What then for the pro-REMAIN dissidents within the Conservative Party and elsewhere ? Politically, their future would be bleak - no chance of another referendum of course - so they either accept the democratic will and make the best of it or drop away.
In politics, winning isn't everything, sometimes it isn't the end of your troubles but only the beginning.
Pro-EU dissidents would just go and get cushy jobs in Bru...
I find it incredibly bizarre that there is so much scepticism about the effect "workers rights" have on unemployment.
Really, it's very simply: demand for labour - like any other good - is price elastic. If you put artificial rules in place that increase its cost, then demand for it falls. Take the tube drivers; it is because tube drivers are expensive, and have heavily unionised rates, that TFL is going to end up going with driverless trains. It is because the print workers had so many rules and regulations (dreamt up by their union) that the newspapers invested in the alternative.
It's not quite that simple because unlike baked beans or tanning, labour to some extent both negotiates its own price and has a direct and considerable impact on the political process. Normal rules can, therefore, be distorted. That said, there is still a market, if an imperfect one, and market forces will still make themselves felt.
Owen Smith Sh DWP is very good on Sky. Haven't seen him before.
Yeah, he's a good guy. At the moment I'd see him and Starmer as the two most plausible unifying candidates if Corbyn agreed to stand down explicitly urging his supporters to back a leader who would try and tread a middle ground between the two wings of the party. It's not clear that that would be rightwing enough for the Blairites to play too, but right now I think either of them would beat the Burnham/Cooper/Kendall representatives.
Owen seemed so straight and reassuringly sensible. Defo one to watch, what's his background? I find Starmer a bit flashy/attention seeker after his CPS stint.
It is the decline in relwtive white population that is the danger. When it reaches the point that hegemony feels threatened they put aside differences and vote tribally.
Whilst the white demographic is declining every cycle that bloc remains the substantial voting majority, to the nearest half point :
White 70.5% .. Black 13.5% .. Hispanic 10.5% .. Asian/Other 5.5%
Comments
I have seen no leafleting activity at all for either side, and the only Leave stall I have seen was from Britain First in Leicester last Saturday. They got a pretty poor reception, leaving to chants of "racists are not welcome here".
These are effectively sales meetings as well as public Q&As.
In a detailed survey of more than 5,000 adults, Lord Ashcroft and his colleagues found 65% expect the result to be that Britain stays in the EU, while 35% anticipate a Brexit vote.
The apparently decisive verdict demonstrates the impact of almost daily anti-Brexit speeches from the prime minister and chancellor, backed by the full force of the Westminsterestablishment.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/26/two-thirds-voters-think-uk-will-remain-in-eu-ashcroft-poll
How the EU debate turned into CSI Brussels
Referendum voters deprived of familiar party brands are discovering how tough it is to be a political jury guided only by hotly contested evidence
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/26/eu-debate-brussels-referendum
The outcome is irrelevant to me now, and that is from somebody who has been anti EU for a decade. When I see some of the PM's most enthusiastic supporters turn against him I know the mood is changing. We're sick of Blair/Cameron stand for nothing bullshitters, this referendum will see a pivotal change in politics. OK there'll still be the TSE/Nabavi sycophants, but this signals the end of tribalism, bring it on.
Right now the socialist Mr Hollande proposes a law to liberalise working conditions ,( this is one of the strong recommandations of European commission for France (14 july 2015))
At the same time in Belgium , right wing government proposes the same law for the same reason… and socialist opposition party demonstrates against this law…"
So if rolling back worker protections is one of the "strong recommandations of European commission", why does the Labour elite think that being in the EU will protect worker rights here? Perhaps they think only of the elites's job propects?
Interesting tip. Down to 26 on Ladbrokes. Still worth a bottle top or two?
Scratch that, Osborne has re-named it the living wage. I mean, a living wage? Who votes for these fucking idiots?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/05/control-v-risk-which-will-win-out-in-the-referendum-debate/
What matters about the single market is that those UK companies that operate within it are set up to operate within it. They take for granted efficiencies and cost savings they may no longer be there when we leave.
Hopefully we'll avoid a return of Milo and Clodius, but if it were to happen one imagines cultural sensitivities would reduce reporting in certain areas.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/26/union-revolt-francois-hollande-france-euro-2016-strike
and another comment " I am told there are valid reasons to be worried about the proposed reforms which are written loosely enough to enable the introduction of zero-hour contracts and unpaid internships on a scale comparable to the UK" - so zero contracts are opposed by Labour but will be imposed by the EU.
I am keen to leaflet for Leave. Do you get sent leaflets or have to purchase them via their store?
And yes, Less glamorous = Somewhere more Leave friendly
But that is what the EU is, it has a parliament.
This is the whole crux, we are in a political union with other countries, it is a ridiculous state of affairs, completely unnecessary, a waste of taxpayer's money.
But yes, shove it up them is what I say.
For those unaware, Monaco is weird. No practice on Fridays, with the first two sessions occurring on Thursday because there's a religious occasion on Friday.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/735733840581251072
Was it Sir Humphrey Nabavi who said UK mandarins wouldn't be able to do the same ?
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/wirtschaftspolitik/grossbritannien-stimmt-ab-vertrauliches-brexit-treffen-fuer-den-fall-der-faelle-14253407.html
His homonymous son, Publius Claudius Pulcher (born c. 62–59 BC – aft. 31 BC), turned out badly: a lethargic nonentity who only rose to the praetorship after 31 BC under the Second Triumvirs and died amid scandals of luxurious excess and an obsessive attachment to a common prostitute.
A solution which would have largely eliminated all the propaganda, that would have enabled much more of the business community to sign up to Leave, that would have cut immigration, removed us from political union, and saved us billions a year.
But somehow, that wasn't enough, and therefore we're going to get Remain.
It is the decline in relwtive white population that is the danger. When it reaches the point that hegemony feels threatened they put aside differences and vote tribally.
Had there been a policy of assimilation into a menoncultureish multy racial society then it might have been avoided but the progressives decided to persue identity politics for ethnic minorities and it dudnt occur to them that the ethnic majority might catch on and play the same game.
Get in the queue buster ....
On FB I see a lot of UKIP backed Leave material but would discount that as indicative of anything because I have lots of active UKIP associates.
More interestingly I have some 400+ friends and associates from various walks of life (work, writing, games, history etc as well as family and friends) and from them almost everything about the referendum - and there is a fair bit even after excluding the UKIP stuff - is pro-Leave. Very few Pro-Remain postings at all.
I don't for a minute think this is representative of wider opinion but comparing Dr Fox and my FB experiences clearly shows how difficult it is to use social media as any measure of overall opinion given how complex the relationships are that we develop online.
Lots of dodgy fellows in the late Republic, from what I gather (not a strong point of mine).
Euro 2016 looks a real fan fest if you like walking.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/economie/le-scan-eco/dessous-chiffres/2016/05/21/29006-20160521ARTFIG00134-decouvrez-la-carte-des-penuries-de-carburants-dans-toute-la-france.php
What is the world coming to? I mean it's not like they have anything to be snooty or snobbish about.
Immigration is set to account for almost half of the expected population expansion, which would also official rank London as one of the world’s megacities – passing the 10 million mark - for the first time.
The dramatic figures - click here for an interactive map - published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), come ahead of the latest immigration tally - the last before the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union.'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/25/population-surge-to-change-the-face-of-england-forever/
Also Luton is a very different place to inner London
Really, it's very simply: demand for labour - like any other good - is price elastic. If you put artificial rules in place that increase its cost, then demand for it falls. Take the tube drivers; it is because tube drivers are expensive, and have heavily unionised rates, that TFL is going to end up going with driverless trains. It is because the print workers had so many rules and regulations (dreamt up by their union) that the newspapers invested in the alternative.
It's really terribly simple: willing buyer; willing seller.
If there's one thing the CGT understand it's how to really screw up the country.
And they don't actually give a shit.
"David Cameron has echoed this in an interview with Saga magazine, warning Britain’s elderly that they could lose their "dignity in retirement” as their pensions could be at risk due to Brexit. "
So yes, once again, it appears I do know better.
Next time you drive through Shirley, keep a look out for the sign that says welcome to Solihull
Here's a bit of cut and paste to help you.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shirley,_West_Midlands
Ah yes, the joys of canvassing and leafleting. Easier in May and June than March and April in terms of weather and light. Here in downtown East Ham all we've had is the local Communist Party leafleting one night at the tube station inviting us all to a public meeting.
I'm still to be convinced of the level of public engagement. There's hearing about it and thinking about it. The week of the Bank Holiday is half term and some people will be on holiday and others will simply not be working.
That gives three solid campaigning weeks from the beginning of the month.
It occurred to me on the way home from work that, in the medium to long term, a win for LEAVE would be the better result for the Conservative Party. Yes, there would be a short term crisis over Cameron and Osborne but the Party is, if nothing else, desperate to be seen to be reflecting the public mood so a pro-LEAVE figure will quickly emerge and will start by, I would imagine, making overtures to UKIP members and supporters to invite them "home", perhaps offering Farage a seat on the negotiating team.
What then for the pro-REMAIN dissidents within the Conservative Party and elsewhere ? Politically, their future would be bleak - no chance of another referendum of course - so they either accept the democratic will and make the best of it or drop away.
In politics, winning isn't everything, sometimes it isn't the end of your troubles but only the beginning.
Oh wait...
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
(Pity it's just a pipe dream)
White 70.5% .. Black 13.5% .. Hispanic 10.5% .. Asian/Other 5.5%