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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gov. John Hickenlooper – my 80/1 longshot for the Democrati
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gov. John Hickenlooper – my 80/1 longshot for the Democratic VP nomination
This afternoon I got a tip from someone in Colorado that the state governor, John Hickenlooper, was in with a good chance of becoming Hillary’s VP choice.
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The less said about my backing of Joe Lieberman to be John McCain's running mate in 2008, and Paul Ryan wasn't even listed with any bookies when he was chosen.
Ruth Davidson complaining about "middle class giveaways", can't see Osbourne saying that. And she's right free tuition fees are a massive middle class giveaway especially in Scotland where the poor do worse than in England in gaining Uni places.
John Redwood: A vote to remain in the EU won’t be the last we hear of Brexit
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/25/vote-remain-eu-brexit-conservatives-leave?CMP=twt_gu
“Police arrested a 55-year-old man, a UK passport holder, and 17 Albanian nationals aboard a yacht at Chichester Marina shortly before 10pm on Monday. The arrests were made by Sussex police after Hampshire police alerted us about the yacht arriving at the marina.
How out of touch can the liberals get?
They really are completely unfit to govern.
George Osborne says Treasury is planning for Brexit
Chancellor says Bank of England and his department are doing ‘serious amount of contingency planning’ to maintain stability
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/11/george-osborne-says-treasury-is-planning-for-brexit
45% (nc) – Leave
44% (+1) – Remain
Fieldwork 20th-25th May 2016
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmg-eu-referendum-tracker-leave-45-remain-44-undecidedpnts-12/
I'm sure the Trump fans and the Republicans who seem to proliferate on here will be on to say OGH has no chance and Hickenlooper's the wrong choice and so on.
I caught up with a few minutes of the daily anti-Clinton diatribe on Fox and they were showing some remarks from HRC from 2007 and accusing her of flip-flopping.
So if someone changes their mind within nearly a decade, that's a flip-flop, is it ? I'd like to think they'd examine the consistency of Trump's views on a range of issues over the past decade. I suspect there are plenty of flips, flops and flips back across a whole range of matters.
In lieu of any enthausiasm for Trump (and it's notable media conservatives fail to offer much of an endorsement, if any, to Trump), all Fox can do is attack HRC.
As you may have noticed, I don't "get" Trump in the same way as I don't "get" any populist politician. His policy platform seems inconsequential, contradictory and incoherent such as it is. I get "anger" and people wanting to have a go "at the Establishment" but simply being angry and shouting a lot shouldn't work in a democratic society - yes, I know it has done and that's what worries me.
GEORGE Osborne has been humiliated by European Union (EU) bureaucrats who have dropped his supposed agreement to exempt Britain from the punishing tampon tax, it has been claimed.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/673665/EU-referendum-George-Osborne-Brexit-tampon-tax-John-Redwood
"That is contingency planning about financial market consequences rather than the policies that you would pursue if you were not a member of the EU," he said.
"The Bank of England has a statutory responsibility for financial stability.
"The government is not doing contingency panning for the policy consequences of a vote to leave."
Asked if there was even a plan to stop a short-term 'shock', the spokesman said once again: "We are not doing any contingency planning."
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/government-made-no-plans-brexit-7930947
Tipping Point.
And The Daily Mirror? Really, I mean really?
Just to clarify you are confirming that Downing Street were lying to the public then.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-institutions/news/74766/government-making-no-plans-brexit-despite-david-camerons-war
But I call bullshit.
I am certain that they are planning - the civil service simply wouldn't be doing their job if they weren't. They may well not have briefed the ministers - plausible deniability - but they will have done it.
The daily mirror was the first article on google. But the piece I excerpted was a series of direct quotes from the Downing Street spokesman
The Government, as any sensible organisation, has plans for all contingencies including (I would guess) the collapse of the Eurozone and a whole swathe of other events.
It is in REMAIN's interests to talk up panic, dislocation, angst, anguish, plagues of locusts and the rest but it is the task of Government to ensure that if we democratically decide to LEAVE, any short-term confusion is minimised and any short-term market reaction is mitigated as far as possible.
Once again, rhetoric meets reality. On June 24th, irrespective of the result of the EU Referendum, there will still be a Conservative Government mandated to govern and it's a not unreasonable demand that the Government continues to govern and the business of Government continues irrespective of the internal machinations of the governing Party.
https://twitter.com/DanJukes17/status/735542261371576325
Say's it all really doesn't it?
I am an Express-sceptic.
Seems in line with the others.
No one has the faintest idea what the real score is but, whatever it is, it is pretty well Identical to a month ago despite the great and good internationally as well as nationally throwing the kitchen sink at it.
I think he said something very similar when he took away Child Benefit from 40p tax payers.
http://order-order.com/2016/05/24/conservatives-in-spot-the-difference/
There's a distinction between exempt items and zero rated items apparently.
I understand not wanting to lose but to not even acknowledge the Government has planned for the possibility of defeat is just foolish.
Governments, as most large organisations, plan or have contingencies for everything whether it's a terrorist attack, pandemic, major weather event (prolonged cold or prolonged heat) or economic crisis and a million other things.
Now we're being told that John Redwood and Paul Nuttall are winning the referendum for leave.
EVERYTHING IS GOING WELL. ^_^
Jonathan Portes @jdportes
Undoubtedly most realistic/credible economic analysis I've seen from Brexit side, by @andrew_lilico analysis http://www.andrewlilico.com/2016/05/22/what-is-it-reasonable-to-believe-might-be-the-economic-impact-of-brexit/ …
Which I've said all along are the credible and genuinely independent forecasts.
More seriously, I find the idea of him winning in November a lot more credible than I did and also a lot less terrifying. This is not a prediction - no more of those from me on US politics - but an observation. Hillary is not popular, she is part of the machine, she is horribly compromised, genuinely enthusiastic supporters seem to be thin on the ground. She has a lot of work to do in a campaign that will be fought on TV - a medium Trump instinctively understands and is totally at home with. He also clearly enjoys campaigning; Hillary clearly doesn't. The game will be played, then, on Trump's turf and it will be tough to stop him setting the agenda day after day. If she does end up winning it may be because Trump gets over-brash and pushes the anti-Hillary line a bit too far, so provoking a Mom-led backlash. Trump has to be careful.
If he does become President I just cannot see him getting involved in detailed policy stuff. He'll set a tone: protectionist on trade, tough on terror etc, but will leave almost all the work to others - perhaps even to a technocratic VP choice. He'll struggle to bring in A list Republicans to his administration, so may have to cast the net more widely, which may be no bad thing. As for Trump himself, while others are doing the day to day stuff, he will just keep campaigning - maybe running aggressively against a Senate which could be Democrat once again after November. For the UK, Trump will probably be like most recent Presidents and either take us for granted or ignore us. His rhetoric and maybe the odd flakey, belligerant decision may make us more vulnerable to attacks from people he has helped to radicalise. But by and large, nothing much will change. In reality, he won't do much harm.
On the one hand, he supports Brexit. On the other hand, he'll probably be quite protectionist.
Will there be a deal to be done?
Dunno. Maybe.
Train ticket clippers are facing the end of the line??
https://twitter.com/Stronger_ln/status/735557179500027904
VAT rules have plenty of other anomalies too.
We've seen this movie before.
Like Rogers infamous "it'l be all over by Friday" prediction at the start of the credit crunch!
Sell Sell Sell any VR related company stock...
Wrong answer?
The post is just handwaving relying on the idea that, somehow, the euro area will make Britain about 2 per cent of GDP poorer - not less rich, but actually poorer - due to changes in single market rules, but that there would be no impact from losing out on those opportunities in the first place by quitting the EU ("net position... fairly close to today's"). It's not exactly cast iron. The rest is speculative. Maybe Britain will get more trade deals. The like of TTIP or free trade in autos with Japan, however, look like sci fi at the moment.
Night all.
You come away with the clear impression that basically which products were VATable was decided by a toddler with a set of coloured stickers.
I think.
Night.
http://southendnewsnetwork.com/news/southend-residents-terrified-of-uks-most-aggressive-cat/
If it "catches on" with the media it will look dreadful for REMAIN.
https://twitter.com/DJack_Journo/status/735580652914020353
And does the answer augur badly for his other hypotheses that Britain would make all the correct (i.e. pro-growth) decisions on trade and regulation outside the EU, If the UK can't even get 0.3 per cent of a free lunch today?
I mean, it is interesting, but you can tell it is one person's blog post.
I imagine there's a lot of frantic phone calls into the Commission going on right now to try and shut this one down until after 23rd June.
What is the time in Japan anyway?
Now PB LEAVE is saying "tampon tax" will embody EU treason and betrayal and maybe even win the referendum, along with people's champion and noted orator Paul Nuttall
5/20-5/23
2016 General Election
Clinton 42% Trump 41%
YouGov/Economist
But come on, if true, it is pretty funny that the Posh Boys should get such a big "FU" from the Commission in the middle of the Referendum?
Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war
Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7174697/Blow-for-Leave-supporters-as-figures-show-Remain-campaigners-are-winning-the-ground-war-in-the-Brexit-battle.html
A fundamental contradiction at the heart of Vote Leave is becoming harder to ignore. The Brexiters demand that Britain should leave the EU so that sovereignty is returned to the British people. Yet they lose no opportunity to attack the credibility of the very public institutions which would exercise that sovereignty should the UK depart.
Four weeks before referendum day, there are signs that wavering voters are starting to recognise that the Leave side cannot mount a sustained case for the UK’s departure from the EU. Even if the Brexiters fail on June 23, however, their irresponsible campaign may leave a mark. Their tactics risk inflicting lasting damage on Britain’s democratic culture.
Interesting, but not too surprising.
One thing that I can't get my head round is why so many people on this site are seemingly so fixated by trade deals. Looking around my study and just about everything in it, save the books and the pictures, has been manufactured in and imported from a country with which we do not have a free trade deal let alone are part of some single market. Even the wine I am drinking (Cook's Bay, a nice Sauvignon Blanc from New Zealand, and a snip at £6.50 a bottle - Frog stuff of equivalent quality would be two or three times the price).
Not being part of the single market or even having a free trade deal doesn't stop the exporters in Japan, South Korea, China, New Zealand or even bloody Australia selling their stuff to me at prices I am prepared to pay (much of it very reasonable in my view).
So why all this fuss about the Single Market of 500 million souls? If a company is producing something that someone else wants to buy at a price the customer is prepared to pay then they will make sales and the single market doesn't matter a hoot.
The Sun also links to this:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7174057/Alesha-Dixon-5ive-East-17-and-Sister-Sledge-pull-out-of-anti-EU-concert-after-finding-out-it-was-political-rally.html
The Times has followed a similar tone. I do wonder whether Murdoch has decided that he wants to back the winner again.
I'm sure the Establishment will hang on and keep the plebs in their place in the end but it's fun blowing raspberries at them anyway!
Minorities put off by racist campaign. Wow, who saw that coming...