It looks like they're planning to convince the UK government to ignore the referendum result.
If you support Leave that's why I would recommend you insist on an early invocation of Article 50.
It's a personal view but if we do vote Leave I think there will be initial heavy pressure to ignore the vote, particularly if very close as a Brexit win will be.
Once that's recognised as being politically impossible I expect the Government will try and sell EEA-EFTA or possibly an EEA+ with some sort of mechanism to put a brake on migration, possibly along the lines Robert has suggested.
All those who think immigration is the number one issue for the country are already voting Leave and from GE 2015 all it does it firm up the soft liberals to back anyone but UKIP, you can see it firming them up for Remain.
Indeed. The people who could be convinced by immigration are already in the Leave camp. Now it is like trying to catch flies with vinegar, it will attract as many people as it repels.
Sovereignty and control of our, for lack of a better word, destiny is where the swing needs to come from. Gove, as justice secretary is best placed to make this argument, I hope he can do it in the debates. Given that EU federalists are very open about their desire for the EU to become a functioning state it shouldn't be very difficult to make the case and link a remain vote to enabling federalists and to Dave giving away our veto on EMU integration.
There is of course the argument that you attract more flies with shit than you do with honey.
Owen Smith Sh DWP is very good on Sky. Haven't seen him before.
Owen seemed so straight and reassuringly sensible. Defo one to watch, what's his background? I find Starmer a bit flashy/attention seeker after his CPS stint.
10 years BBC radio production, 10 years SPAD. So not exactly real world but equally not as vacuous as the pure PR/SPAD route. Also he didn't study PPE, he's from the north and his BBC career was split between Cardiff and London,
He is the son of a Marxist Professor of Cultural History.
Haven't Labour learnt anything from Ed Miliband's tenure ?
Dunno, maybe not to be bullied by fuckwits who think that one's parents political beliefs disqualify one from party leadership? The ideological belief in the appropriateness of aggressive tax planning and offshore secrecy jurisdictions doesn't seem to have worked out too badly for Cameron Sr's son.
My point is rather that the background & life experiences of Owen Smith are the same as the background & life experiences of Ed Miliband. That is not what Labour need.
Your original post referred to how different he was -- "he didn't study PPE"
If that is what diversity now means at the top of the Labour Party, they're doomed.
It's a fair point, but I'm no longer sure what the realistic options are. Among the many reasons it's considered acceptable to belittle Corbyn is his relatively low level of educational qualifications; we've probably passed the point where anyone without a reasonable degree would be able to win a GE as they'd be seen as incapable of running the country ("sure he's qualified to run a leisure centre with his degree in "sports management" but would you want him...." etc etc would be the Crosby schtick).
If Labour keep on with the attacks on the elite backgrounds of the Tories' ruling clique then it's important not to be led by someone who can be (unfairly) portrayed as coming from a similar "liberal metropolitan elite" or whatever. But given how little traction those attacks have had in any case it's better to stop banging on about it and present policies that are good for "ordinary people" rather than asserting that we have backgrounds that mean we "understand ordinary people" while not being able to back it up.
I'd argue quite strongly that EdM fell into this Marxist Prof dad trap because he seemed entirely out of touch himself and talked in weird terms like Predator vs Producer. He seemed like a chip off the old block. If he'd the common touch, it wouldn't matter.
How much is that an age thing? It'd be interesting to see the cross-tabs for e.g. the education of the 65+ group / the 18-25 group, though I suspect the sample sizes are too small and not internally balanced.
TSE thinks old people who left school at 15 years old and have been in work for 40-50 years are "thickies"?
And people who left school and did apprenticeships to become plumbers, builders, van drivers, construction workers, manual workers, mechanics, etc... Are "Thickies".
[snip]
Some of them, of course, are. Thickies do exist.
It was a very sweeping generalization though. Just because someone doesn't go to university does NOT mean they are a thickie...
Right. It means people are less educated but that doesn't mean they are less intelligent by any means.
Correlation is not causation, of course, and it's hard to know what to make of this data. It might be connected with age, as David suggests. My own theory (based on nothing) is that it's to do with a kind of cultural aspiration. The more formal education people have had the more they want to see themselves as culturally sophisticated and the more drawn they are to all things continental.
All those who think immigration is the number one issue for the country are already voting Leave and from GE 2015 all it does it firm up the soft liberals to back anyone but UKIP, you can see it firming them up for Remain.
Indeed. The people who could be convinced by immigration are already in the Leave camp. Now it is like trying to catch flies with vinegar, it will attract as many people as it repels.
Sovereignty and control of our, for lack of a better word, destiny is where the swing needs to come from. Gove, as justice secretary is best placed to make this argument, I hope he can do it in the debates. Given that EU federalists are very open about their desire for the EU to become a functioning state it shouldn't be very difficult to make the case and link a remain vote to enabling federalists and to Dave giving away our veto on EMU integration.
Sovereignty might get you the political geek vote. That's about it. It may be important, but nobody cares. It's like Labour members confusing the fact that malign neoliberal economics is ruining peoples lives, and thinking that you win an election by talking about that fact, rather than the different outcomes that you will deliver to change their lives for the better. So the challenge for Leave is to analyse how this alleged lack of sovereignty is hurting people, and work out how to communicate those hurts in a way that is seen as more important than just worrying about how to pay the mortgage.
All those who think immigration is the number one issue for the country are already voting Leave and from GE 2015 all it does it firm up the soft liberals to back anyone but UKIP, you can see it firming them up for Remain.
Indeed. The people who could be convinced by immigration are already in the Leave camp. Now it is like trying to catch flies with vinegar, it will attract as many people as it repels.
Sovereignty and control of our, for lack of a better word, destiny is where the swing needs to come from. Gove, as justice secretary is best placed to make this argument, I hope he can do it in the debates. Given that EU federalists are very open about their desire for the EU to become a functioning state it shouldn't be very difficult to make the case and link a remain vote to enabling federalists and to Dave giving away our veto on EMU integration.
I disagree in part - the impact of immigration on public services, rather than immigration/cultural change still has plenty of mileage.
How much is that an age thing? It'd be interesting to see the cross-tabs for e.g. the education of the 65+ group / the 18-25 group, though I suspect the sample sizes are too small and not internally balanced.
Young people have to rack up £40k debt to have the same education level relative to their peers as final salary 65+ A-level baby boomers .
That's the problem with being Born Yesterday.
I was born in 1981, I am without doubt that were I to have had a choice (Though 1981 was a perfectly good year to be born in) I'd have chosen 1971 over 1991 to be born in.
I feel very sorry for the young generation. A great many of them have been mis-sold higher education.
Is a tribute to D-Day. Cutting off the essential supplies
I had to laugh when the power stations were taken out on strike, now you can't even charge your electric car.
If there's one thing the CGT understand it's how to really screw up the country.
And they don't actually give a shit.
16/19 nuke plants out today - wow.
You want to know what's equally amazing: despite the CGT strike, France is exporting electricity to the UK right now.
It would be quite funny if they had to pull the plug on the interconnector and we had power cuts the week before th e referendum- unlikely though at this time of year.
Frankly, UK electricity demand is so aneamic right now, that pretty much the entire UK coal fleet is idle. That around 20GW of power stations where the workers have nothing to do, but perform routing maintenance.
I would like to point out that I was the only person on politicalbetting (literally the only one) who said we would not have electricity shortages. I would like some respect for my energy forecasting skills
It is notable on Gridwatch that France with a similar population has usage 50% higher than us -51 vs 34 gig. (although the domestic demand is actually 41 gig as 20% of output is being exported to various countries) but that stlill leaves them using 20% more than us domestically
There are three broad reasons for that:
1. Southern France has peak power demand in the summer, thanks to warmer temperatures and air conditioning. We are therefore comparing trough UK power demand with average French power demand.
2. France has a bigger industrial and manufacturing base than we do in the UK, often attracted by the low electricity rates offered to big power users. (EDF has more power than it can shake a stick at, and it's all low marginal cost, which means that industrial users in France - who can guarantee a certain amount of demand - suck up a lot of power).
3. The UK has been a lot more advanced at pushing energy saving measures than France. While there is some catch up now, new homes in the UK are simply more energy efficient than in France.
How much is that an age thing? It'd be interesting to see the cross-tabs for e.g. the education of the 65+ group / the 18-25 group, though I suspect the sample sizes are too small and not internally balanced.
TSE thinks old people who left school at 15 years old and have been in work for 40-50 years are "thickies"?
And people who left school and did apprenticeships to become plumbers, builders, van drivers, construction workers, manual workers, mechanics, etc... Are "Thickies".
I think he may need a long holiday after this referendum, lol.
The problem foe remain is that it is coming through that the great and good also think they are thickies or worse knuckle dragging racist skinhead thickies
All those who think immigration is the number one issue for the country are already voting Leave and from GE 2015 all it does it firm up the soft liberals to back anyone but UKIP, you can see it firming them up for Remain.
Indeed. The people who could be convinced by immigration are already in the Leave camp. Now it is like trying to catch flies with vinegar, it will attract as many people as it repels.
Sovereignty and control of our, for lack of a better word, destiny is where the swing needs to come from. Gove, as justice secretary is best placed to make this argument, I hope he can do it in the debates. Given that EU federalists are very open about their desire for the EU to become a functioning state it shouldn't be very difficult to make the case and link a remain vote to enabling federalists and to Dave giving away our veto on EMU integration.
I disagree in part - the impact of immigration on public services, rather than immigration/cultural change still has plenty of mileage.
Yes, oddly encouraged by Remain with their forecasts pointing out "growth" fuelled by mass immigration rather than increased productivity, house prices slowing down and wages rising.
How much is that an age thing? It'd be interesting to see the cross-tabs for e.g. the education of the 65+ group / the 18-25 group, though I suspect the sample sizes are too small and not internally balanced.
TSE thinks old people who left school at 15 years old and have been in work for 40-50 years are "thickies"?
And people who left school and did apprenticeships to become plumbers, builders, van drivers, construction workers, manual workers, mechanics, etc... Are "Thickies".
I think he may need a long holiday after this referendum, lol.
The problem foe remain is that it is coming through that the great and good also think they are thickies or worse knuckle dragging racist skinhead thickies
As shown by that Operation Black Vote advert yesterday.
What then for the pro-REMAIN dissidents within the Conservative Party and elsewhere ? Politically, their future would be bleak - no chance of another referendum of course - so they either accept the democratic will and make the best of it or drop away.
In politics, winning isn't everything, sometimes it isn't the end of your troubles but only the beginning.
A large Leave vote -- say over 45 per cent, but under 50 per cent, which is what I think will happen -- creates an incredible opportunity.
In a two party democracy (which is basically the case in most of the UK), it won't be possible for both parties to remain Europhile if 45 per cent of the population isn't. One of the two parties has to evolve to become explicitly anti EU.
Most assume that the anti-EU party will be the Tory party.
But, might it be Labour ?
The Leave vote is highly correlated with income, it is the poor who primarily have not seen the benefits of the EU and have suffered the drawbacks of immigration.
A Labour Party that went down to a crushing defeat in 2020 would need to re-invent itself.
It is a desperate party that thinks outside the box. It might be hugely tempted by a large, unrepresented electorate.
We are not a 3 party democracy and UKIP is the anti EU party already on 13%+. Almost 70% of Labour voters back Remain
UKIP does not have the political skills to capitalise on the discontent.
That is very clear from the Welsh Assembly. UKIP ***could*** have inflicted huge damage on Labour in the Valleys. They didn't ... because Hamilton and Reckless are exactly the wrong type of people to crystallise this discontent. They are from a different world, alien life-forms, to most people in the Valleys.
UKIP can't evolve from what it is now to where it needs to be.
My point remains -- if the result for Leave is 45 per cent or more -- then that is an incredible opportunity for someone.
In politics, if there is a huge opportunity, someone will grasp it.
After all, Labour were a Eurosceptic party. It was the chancer Blair who made them so vociferously Europhile. A chancer whose scanty and tarnished reputation is about to be shredded some more.
I concur that at present UKIP doesn't have the political nous or the skills capitalise on the referendum, whatever the result. And that is why I ceased being a member of UKIP.
I would like to point out that I was the only person on politicalbetting (literally the only one) who said we would not have electricity shortages. I would like some respect for my energy forecasting skills
Comments
Once that's recognised as being politically impossible I expect the Government will try and sell EEA-EFTA or possibly an EEA+ with some sort of mechanism to put a brake on migration, possibly along the lines Robert has suggested.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
Correlation is not causation, of course, and it's hard to know what to make of this data. It might be connected with age, as David suggests. My own theory (based on nothing) is that it's to do with a kind of cultural aspiration. The more formal education people have had the more they want to see themselves as culturally sophisticated and the more drawn they are to all things continental.
1. Southern France has peak power demand in the summer, thanks to warmer temperatures and air conditioning. We are therefore comparing trough UK power demand with average French power demand.
2. France has a bigger industrial and manufacturing base than we do in the UK, often attracted by the low electricity rates offered to big power users. (EDF has more power than it can shake a stick at, and it's all low marginal cost, which means that industrial users in France - who can guarantee a certain amount of demand - suck up a lot of power).
3. The UK has been a lot more advanced at pushing energy saving measures than France. While there is some catch up now, new homes in the UK are simply more energy efficient than in France.
http://www.hsj.co.uk/topics/workforce/exclusive-huge-leak-reveals-bma-plan-to-draw-out-junior-doctors-dispute/7005113.article?blocktitle=News&contentID=15303
"The Snp like to get their choppers out and about.."