politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gov. John Hickenlooper – my 80/1 longshot for the Democrati

VapidBilge said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dugarbandier said:

Philip_Thompson said:

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

Tykejohnno said:

It's the ground war.

Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war
Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7174697/Blow-for-Leave-supporters-as-figures-show-Remain-campaigners-are-winning-the-ground-war-in-the-Brexit-battle.html

Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.

You want to avoid preaching to the converted.

Or preaching to non-voters.

presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says

Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:

* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions.
* those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what.
* those who will not turn out no matter what.

Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.

Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.

I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?

There is a lot of Remain stuff on my Facebook and twitter. A lot of it is well targetted: Scientists for EU; Healthier In etc.

I have seen no leafleting activity at all for either side, and the only Leave stall I have seen was from Britain First in Leicester last Saturday. They got a pretty poor reception, leaving to chants of "racists are not welcome here".

Sean_F said:

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

Tykejohnno said:

It's the ground war.

Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war
Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7174697/Blow-for-Leave-supporters-as-figures-show-Remain-campaigners-are-winning-the-ground-war-in-the-Brexit-battle.html

Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.

You want to avoid preaching to the converted.

You certainly do want to preach to the converted, because you want them to turn out.

You also want to refresh their motivation to promote your cause/tackle recent campaign developments.

These are effectively sales meetings as well as public Q&As.

Almost two-thirds of voters believe the remain camp will win June’s referendum but pro-leave opinion is hardening, according to polling by the Conservative peer Michael Ashcroft seen exclusively by the Guardian.

In a detailed survey of more than 5,000 adults, Lord Ashcroft and his colleagues found 65% expect the result to be that Britain stays in the EU, while 35% anticipate a Brexit vote.

The apparently decisive verdict demonstrates the impact of almost daily anti-Brexit speeches from the prime minister and chancellor, backed by the full force of the Westminsterestablishment.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/26/two-thirds-voters-think-uk-will-remain-in-eu-ashcroft-poll

Lord Ashcroft's write up

How the EU debate turned into CSI Brussels

Referendum voters deprived of familiar party brands are discovering how tough it is to be a political jury guided only by hotly contested evidence

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/26/eu-debate-brussels-referendum

Interesting comment below the line in the Guardian - the strikes in France - "

Right now the socialist Mr Hollande proposes a law to liberalise working conditions ,( this is one of the strong recommandations of European commission for France (14 july 2015))
At the same time in Belgium , right wing government proposes the same law for the same reason… and socialist opposition party demonstrates against this law…"

So if rolling back worker protections is one of the "strong recommandations of European commission", why does the Labour elite think that being in the EU will protect worker rights here? Perhaps they think only of the elites's job propects?

Good morning, everyone.

Interesting tip. Down to 26 on Ladbrokes. Still worth a bottle top or two?

blackburn63 said:

this signals the end of tribalism, bring it on.

if tribalism is replaced by cultism a la Trump, not so sure that's a good idea

DavidL said:

HurstLlama said:

@SouthamObserver

Interesting, but not too surprising.

One thing that I can't get my head round is why so many people on this site are seemingly so fixated by trade deals. Looking around my study and just about everything in it, save the books and the pictures, has been manufactured in and imported from a country with which we do not have a free trade deal let alone are part of some single market. Even the wine I am drinking (Cook's Bay, a nice Sauvignon Blanc from New Zealand, and a snip at £6.50 a bottle - Frog stuff of equivalent quality would be two or three times the price).

Not being part of the single market or even having a free trade deal doesn't stop the exporters in Japan, South Korea, China, New Zealand or even bloody Australia selling their stuff to me at prices I am prepared to pay (much of it very reasonable in my view).

So why all this fuss about the Single Market of 500 million souls? If a company is producing something that someone else wants to buy at a price the customer is prepared to pay then they will make sales and the single market doesn't matter a hoot.

In fairness it did matter a lot more at the time that the single market was launched 20 odd years ago when trade tariffs and NTBs were much more significant. But the trade off (sorry) has changed radically over that period and the problems being caused to this country in particular by freedom of movement within that single market exceed the gains by a considerable margin.

Personally, I believe that we would retain the single market benefits if we leave anyway. It is just too much in the interests of both parties to maintain it. I accept that there is a risk and even that there may be some very short term adverse effects from the uncertainty but as the Andrew Lilico piece shows even if I am wrong the adverse effects are ultimately tiny.

If we leave it won't be two sides, it will be the UK and 27 other sides. Some countries would keep things as they are, others wouldn't. Most would probably mix and match depending on specific perceptions of what would be most advantageous.

What matters about the single market is that those UK companies that operate within it are set up to operate within it. They take for granted efficiencies and cost savings they may no longer be there when we leave.

JackW said:

California - PPIC

Clinton 46 .. Sanders 44

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/poll-clinton-and-sanders-in-dead-heat-in-california-223580

Close and Sanders finishing strongly. If Hillary were indicted Sanders could get the nomination at the convention

Verulamius said:

Full Ashcroft write up on his own website:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/05/control-v-risk-which-will-win-out-in-the-referendum-debate/

So no actual Voting Intention. Most disappointing

VapidBilge said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dugarbandier said:

Philip_Thompson said:

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

Tykejohnno said:

It's the ground war.

Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war
Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7174697/Blow-for-Leave-supporters-as-figures-show-Remain-campaigners-are-winning-the-ground-war-in-the-Brexit-battle.html

Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.

You want to avoid preaching to the converted.

Or preaching to non-voters.

presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says

Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:

* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions.
* those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what.
* those who will not turn out no matter what.

Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.

Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.

I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?

There were two groups of 'in' campaigners working Beverley town centre last Saturday - the core campaign and the local Labour group.

Sean_F said:

VapidBilge said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dugarbandier said:

Philip_Thompson said:

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

Tykejohnno said:

It's the ground war.

Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war
Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7174697/Blow-for-Leave-supporters-as-figures-show-Remain-campaigners-are-winning-the-ground-war-in-the-Brexit-battle.html

Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.

You want to avoid preaching to the converted.

Or preaching to non-voters.

presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says

Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:

* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions.
* those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what.
* those who will not turn out no matter what.

Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.

Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.

I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?

Luton is unusual in being solidly Labour, but, according to Yougov, solidly eurosceptic. Kelvin Hopkins probably has a lot of influence on this issue. And the town is very working class. There's probably not much of big AB liberal vote.

Luton also has a lot of ethnic voters though, most of whom will back Remain

Monksfield said:

VapidBilge said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dugarbandier said:

Philip_Thompson said:

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

Tykejohnno said:

It's the ground war.

Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war
Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7174697/Blow-for-Leave-supporters-as-figures-show-Remain-campaigners-are-winning-the-ground-war-in-the-Brexit-battle.html

Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.

You want to avoid preaching to the converted.

Or preaching to non-voters.

presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says

Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:

* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions.
* those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what.
* those who will not turn out no matter what.

Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.

Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.

I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?

There were two groups of 'in' campaigners working Beverley town centre last Saturday - the core campaign and the local Labour group.

Despite my best efforts to persuade her not to, one of my colleagues has (with her husband) been out canvassing for Remain most evenings. She claims that there are 30-40 Remain canvassers on her part of London (Chadwick).

blackburn63 said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

HurstLlama said:

@SouthamObserver

Interesting, but not too surprising.

One thing that I can't get my head round is why so many people on this site are seemingly so fixated by trade deals. Looking around my study and just about everything in it, save the books and the pictures, has been manufactured in and imported from a country with which we do not have a free trade deal let alone are part of some single market. Even the wine I am drinking (Cook's Bay, a nice Sauvignon Blanc from New Zealand, and a snip at £6.50 a bottle - Frog stuff of equivalent quality would be two or three times the price).

Not being part of the single market or even having a free trade deal doesn't stop the exporters in Japan, South Korea, China, New Zealand or even bloody Australia selling their stuff to me at prices I am prepared to pay (much of it very reasonable in my view).

So why all this fuss about the Single Market of 500 million souls? If a company is producing something that someone else wants to buy at a price the customer is prepared to pay then they will make sales and the single market doesn't matter a hoot.

In fairness it did matter a lot more at the time that the single market was launched 20 odd years ago when trade tariffs and NTBs were much more significant. But the trade off (sorry) has changed radically over that period and the problems being caused to this country in particular by freedom of movement within that single market exceed the gains by a considerable margin.

Personally, I believe that we would retain the single market benefits if we leave anyway. It is just too much in the interests of both parties to maintain it. I accept that there is a risk and even that there may be some very short term adverse effects from the uncertainty but as the Andrew Lilico piece shows even if I am wrong the adverse effects are ultimately tiny.

If we leave it won't be two sides, it will be the UK and 27 other sides. Some countries would keep things as they are, others wouldn't. Most would probably mix and match depending on specific perceptions of what would be most advantageous.

What matters about the single market is that those UK companies that operate within it are set up to operate within it. They take for granted efficiencies and cost savings they may no longer be there when we leave.

Of the 27 other sides, how many would we be negatively affected by? It's a nonsense, Malta, Hungary etc, lovely places, lovely people, we simply don't need any sort of political union with them.

I am not talking about political union.

MikeK said:

HYUFD said:

VapidBilge said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dugarbandier said:

Philip_Thompson said:

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

Tykejohnno said:

It's the ground war.

Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war
Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7174697/Blow-for-Leave-supporters-as-figures-show-Remain-campaigners-are-winning-the-ground-war-in-the-Brexit-battle.html

Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.

You want to avoid preaching to the converted.

Or preaching to non-voters.

presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says

Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:

* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions.
* those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what.
* those who will not turn out no matter what.

Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.

Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.

I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?

I have seen Remain in the Street once but not Leave had leaflets through the post from both campaigns though

It's obvious that Remain is relying on the government, BBC and all the apparatus of the Big Banks and wealthy oligarchy to help them.

Well yes but they still have to man street stalls and hand out leaflets and most of the newspapers are still anti EU

SouthamObserver said:

blackburn63 said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

HurstLlama said:

@SouthamObserver

Interesting, but not too surprising.

One thing that I can't get my head round is why so many people on this site are seemingly so fixated by trade deals. Looking around my study and just about everything in it, save the books and the pictures, has been manufactured in and imported from a country with which we do not have a free trade deal let alone are part of some single market. Even the wine I am drinking (Cook's Bay, a nice Sauvignon Blanc from New Zealand, and a snip at £6.50 a bottle - Frog stuff of equivalent quality would be two or three times the price).

Not being part of the single market or even having a free trade deal doesn't stop the exporters in Japan, South Korea, China, New Zealand or even bloody Australia selling their stuff to me at prices I am prepared to pay (much of it very reasonable in my view).

So why all this fuss about the Single Market of 500 million souls? If a company is producing something that someone else wants to buy at a price the customer is prepared to pay then they will make sales and the single market doesn't matter a hoot.

In fairness it did matter a lot more at the time that the single market was launched 20 odd years ago when trade tariffs and NTBs were much more significant. But the trade off (sorry) has changed radically over that period and the problems being caused to this country in particular by freedom of movement within that single market exceed the gains by a considerable margin.

Personally, I believe that we would retain the single market benefits if we leave anyway. It is just too much in the interests of both parties to maintain it. I accept that there is a risk and even that there may be some very short term adverse effects from the uncertainty but as the Andrew Lilico piece shows even if I am wrong the adverse effects are ultimately tiny.

If we leave it won't be two sides, it will be the UK and 27 other sides. Some countries would keep things as they are, others wouldn't. Most would probably mix and match depending on specific perceptions of what would be most advantageous.

What matters about the single market is that those UK companies that operate within it are set up to operate within it. They take for granted efficiencies and cost savings they may no longer be there when we leave.

Of the 27 other sides, how many would we be negatively affected by? It's a nonsense, Malta, Hungary etc, lovely places, lovely people, we simply don't need any sort of political union with them.

I am not talking about political union.

But that is what you will be voting for.

TheScreamingEagles said:

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Verulamius said:

Full Ashcroft write up on his own website:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/05/control-v-risk-which-will-win-out-in-the-referendum-debate/

So no actual Voting Intention. Most disappointing

Yes, you'll have to use your own imagination, which you find difficult. You prefer to parrot the thoughts of other people.

Why don't you just stop obsessing about me and go out and campaign for Leave.

You make a good point: my colleague (what is campaigning for Remain) would never be seen dead on a forum like this. She'd rather be pounding the streets, knocking on doors, and delivering leaflets. Maybe we Leavers should spend more time working for Out , and less time on here.

HYUFD said:

Close and Sanders finishing strongly. If Hillary were indicted Sanders could get the nomination at the convention

PPIC have a 538 A- rating but this poll is something of an outlier. Clearly if Clinton is out then Sanders will be the nominee.

I have had no remain/leave leaflets but have had the government's leaflet, the electoral commission leaflet and what looked like the Remain formal flyer with Baroness Brady, Martin Lewis on etc. I assume Leave will use their free formal flyer later in the campaign?

I am keen to leaflet for Leave. Do you get sent leaflets or have to purchase them via their store?

rcs1000 said:

The lower the level of "worker's rights", the lower the level of unemployment.

What exactly was the unemployment rate for Roman slaves?

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

Close and Sanders finishing strongly. If Hillary were indicted Sanders could get the nomination at the convention

PPIC have a 538 A- rating but this poll is something of an outlier. Clearly if Clinton is out then Sanders will be the nominee.

California is a solid Democratic state with lots of liberal voters it is not that surprising Sanders is competitive. I agree in the unlikely event Hillary is forced out Sanders gets the nomination, he would only need to persuade a few former Hillary delegates to switch to him to clinch it

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

VapidBilge said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dugarbandier said:

Philip_Thompson said:

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

Tykejohnno said:

It's the ground war.

Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war
Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7174697/Blow-for-Leave-supporters-as-figures-show-Remain-campaigners-are-winning-the-ground-war-in-the-Brexit-battle.html

Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.

You want to avoid preaching to the converted.

Or preaching to non-voters.

presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says

Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:

* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions.
* those will will vote for you and turnout no matter what.
* those who will not turn out no matter what.

Realistically in a national election I'm not convinced its possible to divine with enough level of accuracy that and all campaigning is probably a net positive. The fact they say Remain have done more campaigning events is probably my biggest takeaway from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.

Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.

I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?

Luton is unusual in being solidly Labour, but, according to Yougov, solidly eurosceptic. Kelvin Hopkins probably has a lot of influence on this issue. And the town is very working class. There's probably not much of big AB liberal vote.

Luton also has a lot of ethnic voters though, most of whom will back Remain

I rather doubt it. The commonwealth ones will vote brexit to end the discrimination agsinst commonwealth citizens versus EU citizens and the non commonwealth ones cant vote

Is getting nasty between Tory MPs

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/735733840581251072

blackburn63 said:

@southam

But that is what the EU is, it has a parliament.

This is the whole crux, we are in a political union with other countries, it is a ridiculous state of affairs, completely unnecessary, a waste of taxpayer's money.

And a flag, and anthem. It's all very obvious. Saw elsewhere they want to control how much TV advertising we see, and want more product placement - WTF has that do with the EU?

EU having confidential scenario planning in the event of Brexit

Was it Sir Humphrey Nabavi who said UK mandarins wouldn't be able to do the same ?


http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/wirtschaftspolitik/grossbritannien-stimmt-ab-vertrauliches-brexit-treffen-fuer-den-fall-der-faelle-14253407.html

TheScreamingEagles said:

dugarbandier said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Verulamius said:

Full Ashcroft write up on his own website:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/05/control-v-risk-which-will-win-out-in-the-referendum-debate/

So no actual Voting Intention. Most disappointing

Yes, you'll have to use your own imagination, which you find difficult. You prefer to parrot the thoughts of other people.

Why don't you just stop obsessing about me and go out and campaign for Leave.

You make a good point: my colleague (what is campaigning for Remain) would never be seen dead on a forum like this. She'd rather be pounding the streets, knocking on doors, and delivering leaflets. Maybe we Leavers should spend more time working for Out , and less time on here.

I enjoyed campaigning the other night, SeanT needed to be sedated when I told him, I'll be doing some more canvassing tonight, in a less glamorous part of Sheffield

And yes, Less glamorous = Somewhere more Leave friendly

Sheffield less glamorous you say? no such place, shirley

Is a relative thing. Sheffield is absolutely awesome compared every other city in the known universe, but there are some bits that aren't as glamorous as Dore.

Dear God... Tories I will put up with. Tykes ditto. But Tory Tykes - definitely a bridge too far. You aren't Geoffrey Boycott by any chance, are you?

dugarbandier said:

Sheffield less glamorous you say? no such place, shirley

Shirley is in Birmingham...

JackW said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Trump has the white working class (called middle class over there) mens vote in the bag.

It al depends whether the WWC women identify themselves as white or wimmin.

Sadly American politics are becoming very Rhodesianised - the logical result of identity politics championed by the left

Certainly true that Trump performs well with WWC but presently the polling and voting numbers indicate he is only marginally performing better that Romney in a demographic that is falling. Each cycle the GOP contender has to squeeze a greater proportion of WWC just to stand still.

The swing states are all trending blue with the exception of Pennsylvania that is edging red at the margin. Trump has to near run the table of swing states to win. He is very keen to talk about a wall to keep Hispanics out. The irony being that in keenly contested states like Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio and perhaps even Arizona it will be the Hispanic bloc that builds a wall against Trump reaching the White House.

It is the decline in relwtive white population that is the danger. When it reaches the point that hegemony feels threatened they put aside differences and vote tribally.

Had there been a policy of assimilation into a menoncultureish multy racial society then it might have been avoided but the progressives decided to persue identity politics for ethnic minorities and it dudnt occur to them that the ethnic majority might catch on and play the same game.

Scott_P said:

dugarbandier said:

Sheffield less glamorous you say? no such place, shirley

Shirley is in Birmingham...

Solihull - they'd hate you for saying Birmingham

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

VapidBilge said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dugarbandier said:

Philip_Thompson said:

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

Tykejohnno said:

It's the ground war.

Blow for Leave supporters as figures show Remain is winning the Brexit ground war
Pro-EU supporters target their campaigning in key areas while Brexiteers events are more randomly spread.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7174697/Blow-for-Leave-supporters-as-figures-show-Remain-campaigners-are-winning-the-ground-war-in-the-Brexit-battle.html

Targeting makes no difference, when the country is one constituency.

You want to avoid preaching to the converted.

Or preaching to non-voters.

presumably you want to preach to the converted and get them to turn out. At least that's what the article says

Yes that's what it says. You have to get the balance right of targetting those whom you're going to influence though, no point targetting:

* those you can't win over or who will be more likely to vote for your opponents because of your actions.
* those will will vote for you and turnout no ay from the article, not that they're more effective. I found that surprising.

Read it now. I'm not sure what's most effective. I've not taken part in any organised events, but I've delivered 2,500 leaflets, which is a better use of my time, I think. It's only anecdote, but we've had three pieces of literature so far from Leave, with only the government booklet from Remain.

I've noticed that. When distributing Leave leaflets, I've seen no sign of any Remain activity whatsoever. Still time, I suppose. I have seen some vaguely pro-EU e-mails at work from my union. Maybe there's a social media effort?

Luton is unusual in being solidly Labour, but, according to Yougov, solidly eurosceptic. Kelvin Hopkins probably has a lot of influence on this issue. And the town is very working class. There's probably not much of big AB liberal vote.

Luton also has a lot of ethnic voters though, most of whom will back Remain

I rather doubt it. The commonwealth ones will vote brexit to end the discrimination agsinst commonwealth citizens versus EU citizens and the non commonwealth ones cant vote

Inner London as Opinium showed yesterday is overwhelmingly In partly because of the ethnic vote, they perceive Leave as anti immigration regardless of where it comes from

Mr. Dugarbandier, poor Lepidus. No-one ever remembers he was one of the (second) Triumvirs.

Lots of dodgy fellows in the late Republic, from what I gather (not a strong point of mine).

Alanbrooke said:

Solihull - they'd hate you for saying Birmingham

It's next to Solihull, both of which have Birmingham postcodes

Alanbrooke said:

Scott_P said:

dugarbandier said:

Sheffield less glamorous you say? no such place, shirley

Shirley is in Birmingham...

Solihull - they'd hate you for saying Birmingham

Brummies being snooty and snobbish?

What is the world coming to? I mean it's not like they have anything to be snooty or snobbish about.

Scott_P said:

Alanbrooke said:

Solihull - they'd hate you for saying Birmingham

It's next to Solihull, both of which have Birmingham postcodes

I drive through it every day. but if you know better .....

Alanbrooke said:

Here's tyhe current map of France with petrol stations that have run out of fuel.

Euro 2016 looks a real fan fest if you like walking.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/economie/le-scan-eco/dessous-chiffres/2016/05/21/29006-20160521ARTFIG00134-decouvrez-la-carte-des-penuries-de-carburants-dans-toute-la-france.php

Is a tribute to D-Day. Cutting off the essential supplies

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

JackW said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Trump has the white working class (called middle class over there) mens vote in the bag.

It al depends whether the WWC women identify themselves as white or wimmin.

Sadly American politics are becoming very Rhodesianised - the logical result of identity politics championed by the left

Certainly true that Trump performs well with WWC but presently the polling and voting numbers indicate he is only marginally performing better that Romney in a demographic that is falling. Each cycle the GOP contender has to squeeze a greater proportion of WWC just to stand still.

The swing states are all trending blue with the exception of Pennsylvania that is edging red at the margin. Trump has to near run the table of swing states to win. He is very keen to talk about a wall to keep Hispanics out. The irony being that in keenly contested states like Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio and perhaps even Arizona it will be the Hispanic bloc that builds a wall against Trump reaching the White House.

It is the decline in relwtive white population that is the danger. When it reaches the point that hegemony feels threatened they put aside differences and vote tribally.

Had there been a policy of assimilation into a menoncultureish multy racial society then it might have been avoided but the progressives decided to persue identity politics for ethnic minorities and it dudnt occur to them that the ethnic majority might catch on and play the same game.

The idea that it was the 'progressives' that first pursued identity politics and prevented a multiracial society in America shows a laughable ignorance of history at best and outright dishonesty at worst.

'New estimates, drawn up to help councils and the NHS plan ahead, expose the full impact of years of mass immigration on top of a revolution in life expectancy.

Immigration is set to account for almost half of the expected population expansion, which would also official rank London as one of the world’s megacities – passing the 10 million mark - for the first time.

The dramatic figures - click here for an interactive map - published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), come ahead of the latest immigration tally - the last before the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/25/population-surge-to-change-the-face-of-england-forever/

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Scott_P said:

dugarbandier said:

Sheffield less glamorous you say? no such place, shirley

Shirley is in Birmingham...

Solihull - they'd hate you for saying Birmingham

Brummies being snooty and snobbish?

What is the world coming to? I mean it's not like they have anything to be snooty or snobbish about.

they have the best pints of Mild

I find it incredibly bizarre that there is so much scepticism about the effect "workers rights" have on unemployment.

Really, it's very simply: demand for labour - like any other good - is price elastic. If you put artificial rules in place that increase its cost, then demand for it falls. Take the tube drivers; it is because tube drivers are expensive, and have heavily unionised rates, that TFL is going to end up going with driverless trains. It is because the print workers had so many rules and regulations (dreamt up by their union) that the newspapers invested in the alternative.

It's really terribly simple: willing buyer; willing seller.

And here it is http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/25/david-cameron-warns-elderly-that-a-brexit-could-hit-their-pensio/

"David Cameron has echoed this in an interview with Saga magazine, warning Britain’s elderly that they could lose their "dignity in retirement” as their pensions could be at risk due to Brexit. "

Plato_Says said:

Owen Smith Sh DWP is very good on Sky. Haven't seen him before.

Yeah, he's a good guy. At the moment I'd see him and Starmer as the two most plausible unifying candidates if Corbyn agreed to stand down explicitly urging his supporters to back a leader who would try and tread a middle ground between the two wings of the party. It's not clear that that would be rightwing enough for the Blairites to play too, but right now I think either of them would beat the Burnham/Cooper/Kendall representatives.

Morning all

Ah yes, the joys of canvassing and leafleting. Easier in May and June than March and April in terms of weather and light. Here in downtown East Ham all we've had is the local Communist Party leafleting one night at the tube station inviting us all to a public meeting.

I'm still to be convinced of the level of public engagement. There's hearing about it and thinking about it. The week of the Bank Holiday is half term and some people will be on holiday and others will simply not be working.

That gives three solid campaigning weeks from the beginning of the month.

It occurred to me on the way home from work that, in the medium to long term, a win for LEAVE would be the better result for the Conservative Party. Yes, there would be a short term crisis over Cameron and Osborne but the Party is, if nothing else, desperate to be seen to be reflecting the public mood so a pro-LEAVE figure will quickly emerge and will start by, I would imagine, making overtures to UKIP members and supporters to invite them "home", perhaps offering Farage a seat on the negotiating team.

What then for the pro-REMAIN dissidents within the Conservative Party and elsewhere ? Politically, their future would be bleak - no chance of another referendum of course - so they either accept the democratic will and make the best of it or drop away.

In politics, winning isn't everything, sometimes it isn't the end of your troubles but only the beginning.

rcs1000 said:

I find it incredibly bizarre that there is so much scepticism about the effect "workers rights" have on unemployment.

Really, it's very simply: demand for labour - like any other good - is price elastic. If you put artificial rules in place that increase its cost, then demand for it falls. Take the tube drivers; it is because tube drivers are expensive, and have heavily unionised rates, that TFL is going to end up going with driverless trains. It is because the print workers had so many rules and regulations (dreamt up by their union) that the newspapers invested in the alternative.

It's really terribly simple: willing buyer; willing seller.

I'd no idea how serious the print union pay racket was until the late 80s when I met a man who'd just been made redundant from a national paper. He was just a cog and on £68k plus OT, goodies, pension etc.

rcs1000 said:

I find it incredibly bizarre that there is so much scepticism about the effect "workers rights" have on unemployment.

Really, it's very simply: demand for labour - like any other good - is price elastic. If you put artificial rules in place that increase its cost, then demand for it falls. Take the tube drivers; it is because tube drivers are expensive, and have heavily unionised rates, that TFL is going to end up going with driverless trains. It is because the print workers had so many rules and regulations (dreamt up by their union) that the newspapers invested in the alternative.

It's really terribly simple: willing buyer; willing seller.

It's not quite that simple because unlike baked beans or tanning, labour to some extent both negotiates its own price and has a direct and considerable impact on the political process. Normal rules can, therefore, be distorted. That said, there is still a market, if an imperfect one, and market forces will still make themselves felt.

OldKingCole said:

JackW said:

rcs1000 said:

The lower the level of "worker's rights", the lower the level of unemployment.

What exactly was the unemployment rate for Roman slaves?

Don’t you remember? One of your old friends must have used them!

be fair: the Romans never conquered Caledonia.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

It is the decline in relwtive white population that is the danger. When it reaches the point that hegemony feels threatened they put aside differences and vote tribally.

Whilst the white demographic is declining every cycle that bloc remains the substantial voting majority, to the nearest half point :

White 70.5% .. Black 13.5% .. Hispanic 10.5% .. Asian/Other 5.5%