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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Trump-Boris mural on the Bristol wall – the betting cha

Via @PaulWaugh Bristol Post report of giant mural in cityhttps://t.co/JtI6NKIGVk pic.twitter.com/Z2SGOLDVji
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Trump in to 3.1
Remain: 45% (+2)
Leave: 45% (-2)
(via ICM / 20 - 22 May)
Online poll new methodology
"the future of telephone polling is somewhat bleak, for reasons both linked to its own ability to produce representative samples in an age when the public has radically redefined its relationship with the telephone (landline in particular) and because the cost and practicality of telephone polling is problematic for vote intention work."
http://order-order.com/2016/05/24/conservatives-in-spot-the-difference/
Indeed, there is a remarkable consistency across our online polls, with big Leave leads being built up in each hour from 4pm to 9pm on a Friday, partially mitigated by big Remain In leads every hour thereafter until the survey closes, ostensibly by Monday morning for data delivery to clients.
This is known as "young people go out on the lash every Friday night" bias.
Question is: what is Vote Leave doing? Where are they?
I presume they are doing something, but it's not visible to man or beast.
"No president ever has won because of their VP, with possible exception of LBJ winning Texas for JFK though he would have won without it. Personally I think Trump might pick Scott Brown, Hillary Castro or Warren"
Yebbut, never before has someone run without legislative, military or foreign policy experience.
Trump needs a good Veep, or he may as well forget it...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/americans-concerned-trump-experience_us_574448e6e4b045cc9a71da3e
Tory voters are apparently flocking to remain, and yet conservative IN in the home counties can;t fill a reliant robin.
Timberrrrrrr!!!!
@journodave: is the Leave campaign in crisis now it has lost the backing of 5ive
May be this arises because they were running their spreadsheets over forecasting the next 14 years and overlooked doing the day job?
One thing is clear though, Yougov, ICM and Prof. Curtice are all down on the side of the line which places very little faith in one-call telephone polling. The BES/BSA findings have thrown the whole methodology into doubt.
http://us11.campaign-archive2.com/?u=fbcf81e4dd2761d48aba0b6da&id=14df1d3e14
I suggested we should execute dealers and treat users, the policeman said not many in the force would disagree, he called them "peddlars of death". Something like 95% of prisoners are in for drug related crime, what we're doing simply isn't working. As SeanT would no doubt testify, the extent to which drugs like heroin are in daily use would astound most people, its terrifying. As Stephen Fry says, the difference between middle class and working class drug use is the middle classes can afford it.
Leaving that aside, Osborne, "The near perfect chancellor", has his credibility shot away by each set of figures. Keeps missing his targets, that "march of the makers" actually is a recession in the manufacturing sector, and so on and so forth. The expression, "Osbrown" seems to sum him up quite well.
http://advancingjustice-aajc.org/sites/aajc/files/Inclusion-AAVS-2016.pdf
This is the extent of their analysis of their own poll?:
http://www.opinion.co.uk/article.php?s=daily-telegraph-poll-18th-22nd-may
And look at this:
'EU Poll
Page 62
Table 16
Q3 - Thinking about the UK as a whole, do you believe the country is generally heading in the right direction, or seriously heading in the wrong direction?'
'Generally right direction' is not the equivalent of 'Seriously wrong direction'. I know that from basic market research - this is meant to be a polling company? Done properly, this question could have been quite a good proxy to compare to the headline figures.
There are tables riddled with gobbledygook keyboard typing, typos in the questions etc.
And why is the general aim to come back with as few don't knows as possible?
Unfortunately it keeps getting brushed under the carpet.
It never seems to come.
a) Methodological change;
b) Spates of polls that use a favourable method for one outcome or another coming in bunches;
I don't get the sense on here, or elsewhere, that anyone is really changing their mind.
The idea that the bunch of hopeless Tories that run Vote Leave could do better if only they only had the use of UKIP as a sort of 'party that does' is deeply misguided and rather insulting. Accordingly, I gave Leave.EU a small but hopefully useful donation the other week. I wouldn't give the others a penny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryuW22MWnOU
But Nigel won't see it like the others, listening to him recently he seems pent up with frustration. If he can contain and manage that on ITV he might just land some killer blows on Cameron, let's hope so. It's been Cameron's to lose all along, he might just crack.
http://www.bristol247.com/channel/culture/art/street-art/exclusive-boris-trump-kiss-artists-revealed
A cunning pro EU stunt.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-36367752
Three letters will decide this referendum though for Remain. B*C.
The image of an entourage from Whitehall sat around with Colombians and Afghans is too awful to contemplate, but drugs are the scourge of society, an entirely different approach is required.
Never before has someone won without legislative, military or executive experience.
@Hannah_McGrath: So Farage has just told his 'people's army' in Dudley to 'go out, persuade people, bully people'. #Brexit
I know I'm not neutral but, let's face it, neither are they and the last Leave headline I think it gave anyone was Boris and Hitler.
Good to talk though, I wish parliament would.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/05/23/still-panicked-about-trump-don/kJuFeFnQMMPwvAGvSXwHJO/story.html
That said, illegal, unregistered suppliers should still be prosecuted, the same as in any other regulated industry.
Regarding quotas being filled too quickly - surely the optimal solution is to allow quotas to be filled, and then even overfilled ... but take a random sample of the overfilled quota to par down to the actual quota ?
One point I haven't seen made yet is that to all intents and purposes telephone and online polls are, now, to many people basically the same thing.
Clinton 51 .. Sanders 42 - Sample 4,888
Clinton 47 .. Trump 43 - Sample 14,513
Sanders 53 .. Trump 41 - Sample 14,513
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-majority-americans-dislike-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-n578926
http://tinyurl.com/gshu3u7
@BethRigby: Brexit minister tells me damage done in party over #EUref. PM "50/50 chance of vote of no confidence" post June 23. 1/2
@BethRigby: And even if Cameron does survive, #Brexit minister warns impending blood letting will make party "ungovernable" Grim state of affairs #euref