politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy: You are right about austerity but you have a long w
Comments
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It's taking all my self restraint not to text Douglas Carswell with the following messageAlastairMeeks said:Fair's fair, data protection law is an emanation from the hated EU so it isn't surprising that Leave.EU don't want to comply with it.
'Hahahahaha bet you're glad you ratted to UKIP aren't you, you TPD'0 -
The additional investment and increase in demand should have reduced the deficit despite the increased levels of government spending.Philip_Thompson said:
And when interest rates rocket up? And we have a 10% deficit and 160% debt to GDP ratio with sky high interest rates and rampant inflation? What then?rottenborough said:
Afraid so. I'm a member of the William Keegan school of economics. The deficit is easily affordable and indeed, given extremely low interest rates the government should be undertaking more capital spending and investment in infrastructure while it has the chance.blackburn63 said:
Surely you're not serious when you say we don't need to cut the deficit?rottenborough said:
because cutting the deficit is popular in the abstract whereas when people are presented with actual cuts they recoil.Danny565 said:
If austerity is popular, why has there been such a huge public backlash against the Tories in the past 12 months whenever they've tried introducing significant spending cuts (tax credits, disability benefits, etc.)?david_herdson said:"Jeremy: You are right about austerity"
How to lose an election in six words.
Personally, I believe the public have been persuaded we need to cut the deficit when economically we don't. But I accept that the politics of that position are awful.
A minority pursuit no doubt.
Of course, no one knows the precise point at which deficit will be a problem with markets.
See Sir Nicholas Macpherson's view, which is that as it is unclear how you predict when the markets will take fright at deficit level, then the Treasury should err on side of caution:
https://quarterly.blog.gov.uk/2015/03/19/mr-osbornes-economic-experiment-austerity-1945-51-and-2010-reviewed-by-sir-nicholas-macpherson/
Or, as Keegan would probably put, good old treasury orthodoxy.0 -
@MSmithsonPB: Big poll news on front of Telegraph that doesn't look good for OUT https://t.co/Wt2mHCw5Ts0
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Lloyd's say Leave would be fine. Nice to know a Portuguese CEO has our back.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3464958/We-ll-thrive-EU-says-bank-chief-Lloyds-boss-gives-vote-confidence-Brexit-s-Portugal.html
Portugal is our oldest ally for those who don't know their history. Never had a war against Portugal and been allies one way and another since 1378.0 -
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Not surprised.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was 11 when that happened, you old gitHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Makes me feel old reading this.BenedictWhite said:MikeSmithson said:
I remember that Ceausescu speech... Then they started laughing....And then you knew it was over.
That speech happened on my 19th birthday.0 -
ORB Poll for the Telegraph
Remain 55 (nc)
Leave 42 (+2)
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7348482740924129280 -
That's interesting.AlastairMeeks said:It's my belief that austerity is what is driving the popularity of Leave.
If there is a vote to Leave, there might need to be an entirely new dictionary entry for hoist by one's own petard.0 -
It really has been a remarkeable transformation of Eastern Europe since then. Communist dictatorships with dire human rights records and moribond economies. Now democratic, growing economies that Britons go on stag weekends to.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Indeed, watching the Eastern bloc collapse in on itself was an awesome to see happening.BenedictWhite said:
I was 21 at the time. Good days. B'stards getting their cumuppence!Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Makes me feel old reading this.BenedictWhite said:MikeSmithson said:
I remember that Ceausescu speech... Then they started laughing....And then you knew it was over.
That speech happened on my 19th birthday.
The opening of the EU to these countries has transformed them. Still much to do, so a job we need to stick with.0 -
Trump's not a republican? I'm shocked, I tell you, shocked.david_herdson said:
If Trump wins in November, I have my doubts about the GOP doing better in the Senate races in 2018 than they did in 2012. Pretty much guaranteed a big GOP win then if it's Hillary in the White House though.SouthamObserver said:Greetings from Washington DC. Just had lunch at the Capitol Hill Club, the place in town where t Republicans congregate. A few snippets to report:
1. The feeling is that Trump has a real chance of winning in November, thanks to HC's unpopularity and his amazingly teflon qualities.
2. A real spanner in the works, though, could be the emergence of stories about mob links. You can't do big builds in New York without having to deal with the mafia, apparently.
3. If he does win he is going to have trouble bringing in A list Republicans to serve in his administration. He's just too unpredictable.
4. He may not actually be a Republican!
5. The Senate looks like it may flip to the Democrats in November, before flipping back to the GOP in 2018.
Make of this what you will. No huge surprises, but 2 and 4 may explain a lot about why Trump is so worrisome for the GOP establishment.0 -
The problem then wouldn't be the deficit; it'd be the size of the debt itself.rottenborough said:
The additional investment and increase in demand should have reduced the deficit despite the increased levels of government spending.Philip_Thompson said:
And when interest rates rocket up? And we have a 10% deficit and 160% debt to GDP ratio with sky high interest rates and rampant inflation? What then?rottenborough said:
Afraid so. I'm a member of the William Keegan school of economics. The deficit is easily affordable and indeed, given extremely low interest rates the government should be undertaking more capital spending and investment in infrastructure while it has the chance.blackburn63 said:
Surely you're not serious when you say we don't need to cut the deficit?rottenborough said:
because cutting the deficit is popular in the abstract whereas when people are presented with actual cuts they recoil.Danny565 said:
If austerity is popular, why has there been such a huge public backlash against the Tories in the past 12 months whenever they've tried introducing significant spending cuts (tax credits, disability benefits, etc.)?david_herdson said:"Jeremy: You are right about austerity"
How to lose an election in six words.
Personally, I believe the public have been persuaded we need to cut the deficit when economically we don't. But I accept that the politics of that position are awful.
A minority pursuit no doubt.
Of course, no one knows the precise point at which deficit will be a problem with markets.
See Sir Nicholas Macpherson's view, which is that as it is unclear how you predict when the markets will take fright at deficit level, then the Treasury should err on side of caution:
https://quarterly.blog.gov.uk/2015/03/19/mr-osbornes-economic-experiment-austerity-1945-51-and-2010-reviewed-by-sir-nicholas-macpherson/
Or, as Keegan would probably put, good old treasury orthodoxy.0 -
Climate Change Act = export of jobs?
On the day, Cruddas has another go at explaining why Labour are losing votes amongst traditional supporters.
As for celebrating Paul Mason's economics, has that fool been to Cuba or Venezula recently?0 -
It's not that the UK doesn't have a veto. It's that the UK is loving it, loving it, loving it.Plato_Says said:Paul Waugh
No10 spokesman confirms official UK policy *is* to support Turkey membership of EU. "I'm not trying to change govt policy" on that, he says
However, personally, I think the UK Government is lying. It is in favour of Turkey joining in principle, but not in practice.0 -
From canvassing experience, the Leave's spend the £350 million on the NHS line is going done well.Casino_Royale said:
That's interesting.AlastairMeeks said:It's my belief that austerity is what is driving the popularity of Leave.
If there is a vote to Leave, there might need to be an entirely new dictionary entry for hoist by one's own petard.0 -
What size of victory will it take before continuity IDS, admit defeat and STFU?TheScreamingEagles said:ORB Poll for the Telegraph
Remain 55 (nc)
Leave 42 (+2)
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7348482740924129280 -
Is this based on phone or online polling?Scott_P said:@MSmithsonPB: Big poll news on front of Telegraph that doesn't look good for OUT https://t.co/Wt2mHCw5Ts
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Another poll with most Tories backing Remain, I see, I'm sure PB Tory Leaver Banshees will take that on board.saddened said:
What size of victory will it take before continuity IDS, admit defeat and STFU?TheScreamingEagles said:ORB Poll for the Telegraph
Remain 55 (nc)
Leave 42 (+2)
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7348482740924129280 -
The ORB polls for the Telegraph are usually phone pollsrottenborough said:
Is this based on phone or online polling?Scott_P said:@MSmithsonPB: Big poll news on front of Telegraph that doesn't look good for OUT https://t.co/Wt2mHCw5Ts
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"Well, look at these 10 ultra marginals seats where the Tory majority is less than the Green vote... Without those ten seats David Cameron wouldn’t have an overall majority"
People try this reasoning for the Tories and UKIP sometimes. It doesn't work: Green voters aren't only concerned about the environment, and some of the voters who are will be heavily anti-Labour, especially in 2015 with the LibDems exaporating. Neither strong Green positions nor the elimination of the Green candidate would have allowed you to move all, or even most, of those votes into the Labour column, and it certainly isn't going to happen from talking more about VAT on energy saving materials or whatever.0 -
Seriously good English language band. Very clear English vocals. Some of the best and clearest.david_herdson said:
For nostaligia's sake then:Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Indeed, watching the Eastern bloc collapse in on itself was an awesome to see happening.BenedictWhite said:
I was 21 at the time. Good days. B'stards getting their cumuppence!Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Makes me feel old reading this.BenedictWhite said:MikeSmithson said:
I remember that Ceausescu speech... Then they started laughing....And then you knew it was over.
That speech happened on my 19th birthday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4RjJKxsamQ
And they're German!0 -
Which makes this quite funnyfoxinsoxuk said:It really has been a remarkeable transformation of Eastern Europe since then. Communist dictatorships with dire human rights records and moribond economies. Now democratic, growing economies that Britons go on stag weekends to.
The opening of the EU to these countries has transformed them. Still much to do, so a job we need to stick with.
https://twitter.com/jonteinspain/status/7346679339941109760 -
It's official: David Cameron will not debate another political leader on television before EU referendum @Telegraph https://t.co/xDZtaJg7Sh0
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Yes, and nature hadn't forced me to follow OGH on the hair style front then either.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was 11 when that happened, you old gitHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Makes me feel old reading this.BenedictWhite said:MikeSmithson said:
I remember that Ceausescu speech... Then they started laughing....And then you knew it was over.
That speech happened on my 19th birthday.
Things is different these days.0 -
Did David Cameron come into politics for no other reason than to lock us in to the EU?
Think about it. What else has he achieved? What else will he be remembered for?
This referendum is the only thing he'll be remembered for in the end... The Prime Minister who sold his country down the river and destroyed his Party?0 -
I like the thing they do with that photo of an old lady turning her back on the Brexit article, still clutching the flowers she had intended to give to Michael Gove.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB Poll for the Telegraph
Remain 55 (nc)
Leave 42 (+2)
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7348482740924129280 -
So Leave are doing better on the 0/10, 'I don't even live in Britain' + vote?TheScreamingEagles said:ORB Poll for the Telegraph
Remain 55 (nc)
Leave 42 (+2)
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734848274092412928
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It's holding up a motorway bridge somewhere.Plato_Says said:
I gather it's very expensive hardcore.Moses_ said:
Planning...it's all about planning.Plato_Says said:It's incredible that Labour lost either of the last two elections.
Twitter loves them, Gordon is witty, Labour didn't do anything wrong and... Oh, I think I forgot to take my medication.
McGordo cried Wolf and abused that nice Mrs Duffy.
They then went one step further. I m still trying to get my head round the Prezzer around the tablet of stone in the car park because someone forgot to calculate the weight and the load distribution factor of the stage they were originally going to place it on.
As they said..... it was all going so well until Ed fell off the stage yet Labours tablet of stone never actually made it to the stage.
Did they ever locate that tablet of stone by the way?
Along with the prat whose idea it was.....0 -
Baffling.TheScreamingEagles said:
From canvassing experience, the Leave's spend the £350 million on the NHS line is going done well.Casino_Royale said:
That's interesting.AlastairMeeks said:It's my belief that austerity is what is driving the popularity of Leave.
If there is a vote to Leave, there might need to be an entirely new dictionary entry for hoist by one's own petard.0 -
It's not over till the Fat Liverpool Fan singsTheScreamingEagles said:
Another poll with most Tories backing Remain, I see, I'm sure PB Tory Leaver Banshees will take that on board.saddened said:
What size of victory will it take before continuity IDS, admit defeat and STFU?TheScreamingEagles said:ORB Poll for the Telegraph
Remain 55 (nc)
Leave 42 (+2)
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/734848274092412928
0 -
Thing is that Leave do have some good messages and you can over do doom and gloom. We will see. It is all to play for.TheScreamingEagles said:
From canvassing experience, the Leave's spend the £350 million on the NHS line is going done well.Casino_Royale said:
That's interesting.AlastairMeeks said:It's my belief that austerity is what is driving the popularity of Leave.
If there is a vote to Leave, there might need to be an entirely new dictionary entry for hoist by one's own petard.0 -
Only 3% don't knows??Scott_P said:@MSmithsonPB: Big poll news on front of Telegraph that doesn't look good for OUT https://t.co/Wt2mHCw5Ts
That just doesn't compute.0 -
Today I officially felt old today, I had to explain who MacGyver was to one of my staff today. They had never heard of MacGyver before, They are 18, it dawned on me they were born after Labour's victory in 1997.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Yes, and nature hadn't forced me to follow OGH on the hair style front then either.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was 11 when that happened, you old gitHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Makes me feel old reading this.BenedictWhite said:MikeSmithson said:
I remember that Ceausescu speech... Then they started laughing....And then you knew it was over.
That speech happened on my 19th birthday.
Things is different these days.0 -
Chicken.Plato_Says said:It's official: David Cameron will not debate another political leader on television before EU referendum @Telegraph https://t.co/xDZtaJg7Sh
0 -
To be fair, I was bang into rave culture in those days.david_herdson said:
For nostaligia's sake then:Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Indeed, watching the Eastern bloc collapse in on itself was an awesome to see happening.BenedictWhite said:
I was 21 at the time. Good days. B'stards getting their cumuppence!Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Makes me feel old reading this.BenedictWhite said:MikeSmithson said:
I remember that Ceausescu speech... Then they started laughing....And then you knew it was over.
That speech happened on my 19th birthday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4RjJKxsamQ
Marshall Jefferson, Sterling Void and Guru Josh were far more my cup of tea back then.0 -
He ran such an appalling campaign in 2010 that he very nearly blew that. He only did it with Lib-Dem support?Scott_P said:
Kicking Gordo out of Downing Street.GIN1138 said:Think about it. What else has he achieved? What else will he be remembered for?
For that alone he deserves a medal, statue and probably a public holiday0 -
It is all those 80 year olds with mobile phones.TheScreamingEagles said:
The ORB polls for the Telegraph are usually phone pollsrottenborough said:
Is this based on phone or online polling?Scott_P said:@MSmithsonPB: Big poll news on front of Telegraph that doesn't look good for OUT https://t.co/Wt2mHCw5Ts
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Nope.BenedictWhite said:Lloyd's say Leave would be fine. Nice to know a Portuguese CEO has our back.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3464958/We-ll-thrive-EU-says-bank-chief-Lloyds-boss-gives-vote-confidence-Brexit-s-Portugal.html
Portugal is our oldest ally for those who don't know their history. Never had a war against Portugal and been allies one way and another since 1378.
The Iberian Union (1580–1640), a 60-year dynastic union between Portugal and Spain, interrupted the alliance. Portuguese foreign policy became tied to Spanish hostility to England. As a result, Portugal and England were on opposite sides of the Anglo-Spanish War (1585–1604) and the Dutch–Portuguese War. The alliance was reconfirmed after the Portuguese Restoration War and the English Restoration.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Portuguese_Alliance0 -
Telegraph reporting older voters turn back on Brexit - poll lead of 13 for remain0
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I'd completely agree with that. For once, it's Britain playing the good European, safe in the knowledge that Greece, Cyprus, France and - presumably after today's vote - Austria won't let it happen this decade or next; long after Cameron has departed front-line politics.Casino_Royale said:
It's not that the UK doesn't have a veto. It's that the UK is loving it, loving it, loving it.Plato_Says said:Paul Waugh
No10 spokesman confirms official UK policy *is* to support Turkey membership of EU. "I'm not trying to change govt policy" on that, he says
However, personally, I think the UK Government is lying. It is in favour of Turkey joining in principle, but not in practice.0 -
0
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Swing to Leave.Big_G_NorthWales said:Telegraph reporting older voters turn back on Brexit - poll lead of 13 for remain
Let's see the 10/10.0 -
The Cameroons: A Warning From HistoryGIN1138 said:
He ran such an appalling campaign in 2010 that he very nearly blew that. He only did it with Lib-Dem support?Scott_P said:
Kicking Gordo out of Downing Street.GIN1138 said:Think about it. What else has he achieved? What else will he be remembered for?
For that alone he deserves a medal, statue and probably a public holiday
narrated by Sam West
Episode 1:
"2010 - Helped Into Power"0 -
EICIBNPMSunil_Prasannan said:
Best Prime Minister we never had!saddened said:Ed Milliband, greatest prime minister, brilliant.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/milifan-prime-minister-ed-miliband0 -
Telegraph reporting big change in Tory support for remain with 57% now in the remain camp0
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And they're like 'yeah, yeah'TheScreamingEagles said:
Today I officially felt old today, I had to explain who MacGyver was to one of my staff today. They had never heard of MacGyver before, They are 18, it dawned on me they were born after Labour's victory in 1997.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Yes, and nature hadn't forced me to follow OGH on the hair style front then either.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was 11 when that happened, you old gitHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Makes me feel old reading this.BenedictWhite said:MikeSmithson said:
I remember that Ceausescu speech... Then they started laughing....And then you knew it was over.
That speech happened on my 19th birthday.
Things is different these days.
That sort of thing only gets worse.
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Never had a war against an independent PortugalVapidBilge said:
Nope.BenedictWhite said:Lloyd's say Leave would be fine. Nice to know a Portuguese CEO has our back.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3464958/We-ll-thrive-EU-says-bank-chief-Lloyds-boss-gives-vote-confidence-Brexit-s-Portugal.html
Portugal is our oldest ally for those who don't know their history. Never had a war against Portugal and been allies one way and another since 1378.
The Iberian Union (1580–1640), a 60-year dynastic union between Portugal and Spain, interrupted the alliance. Portuguese foreign policy became tied to Spanish hostility to England. As a result, Portugal and England were on opposite sides of the Anglo-Spanish War (1585–1604) and the Dutch–Portuguese War. The alliance was reconfirmed after the Portuguese Restoration War and the English Restoration.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Portuguese_Alliance
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Show us the 10/10 on the 2015 Tory vote - not all the fake Lib Dem Tories.Big_G_NorthWales said:Telegraph reporting big change in Tory support for remain with 57% now in the remain camp
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Two or three months after the referendum they'll all be back to whining and whinging about the EU...Big_G_NorthWales said:Telegraph reporting big change in Tory support for remain with 57% now in the remain camp
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Telegraph reporting pensioners turning to remain. Never underestimate the power of grandchildren0
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You're getting angry.chestnut said:
Show us the 10/10 on the 2015 Tory vote - not all the fake Lib Dem Tories.Big_G_NorthWales said:Telegraph reporting big change in Tory support for remain with 57% now in the remain camp
You don't like the Tories picking up support?0 -
The Spanish Armada sailed from Lisbon, and the second in command had a Portuguese Galleon as his flagship.VapidBilge said:
Nope.BenedictWhite said:Lloyd's say Leave would be fine. Nice to know a Portuguese CEO has our back.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3464958/We-ll-thrive-EU-says-bank-chief-Lloyds-boss-gives-vote-confidence-Brexit-s-Portugal.html
Portugal is our oldest ally for those who don't know their history. Never had a war against Portugal and been allies one way and another since 1378.
The Iberian Union (1580–1640), a 60-year dynastic union between Portugal and Spain, interrupted the alliance. Portuguese foreign policy became tied to Spanish hostility to England. As a result, Portugal and England were on opposite sides of the Anglo-Spanish War (1585–1604) and the Dutch–Portuguese War. The alliance was reconfirmed after the Portuguese Restoration War and the English Restoration.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Portuguese_Alliance
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They're Lib Dems.GIN1138 said:
Two or three months after the referendum they'll all be back to whining and whinging about the EU...Big_G_NorthWales said:Telegraph reporting big change in Tory support for remain with 57% now in the remain camp
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The figures I quoted earlier were the 10/10 voters, this is the all voters figures
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsEU/status/7348522586057154560 -
Kunsberg on the BBC. Polls show 10 million enthusiastic for leave only 5 million enthusiastic for remain.
If I were Remain I would be worried about that especially so as they don't know where to direct their GOTV campaign even if they had one.0 -
I went for a medical before Christmas. The nurse asked my date of birth and noted that I'd just had my birthday, had I done anything nice? Well actually, I said, I'd been due to see New Order but hadn't been able to go.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And they're like 'yeah, yeah'TheScreamingEagles said:
Today I officially felt old today, I had to explain who MacGyver was to one of my staff today. They had never heard of MacGyver before, They are 18, it dawned on me they were born after Labour's victory in 1997.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Yes, and nature hadn't forced me to follow OGH on the hair style front then either.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was 11 when that happened, you old gitHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Makes me feel old reading this.BenedictWhite said:MikeSmithson said:
I remember that Ceausescu speech... Then they started laughing....And then you knew it was over.
That speech happened on my 19th birthday.
Things is different these days.
That sort of thing only gets worse.
"Who are New Order?"
"You will have heard their biggest track Blue Monday, even if you don't recognise the name of the track, it's played eveywhere. It was the biggest selling 12" ever."
"What's a 12"?"
At that point I quit when I was behind.0 -
Angry? No, I'm chuckling.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're getting angry.chestnut said:
Show us the 10/10 on the 2015 Tory vote - not all the fake Lib Dem Tories.Big_G_NorthWales said:Telegraph reporting big change in Tory support for remain with 57% now in the remain camp
You don't like the Tories picking up support?
If Tory support means that they are actually de facto Lib Dems (or New Labour), I welcome it in the same way that Labour welcomed becoming Tories.
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They were on our side in WW!, but remained neutral in WW2.RobD said:
Never had a war against an independent PortugalVapidBilge said:
Nope.BenedictWhite said:Lloyd's say Leave would be fine. Nice to know a Portuguese CEO has our back.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3464958/We-ll-thrive-EU-says-bank-chief-Lloyds-boss-gives-vote-confidence-Brexit-s-Portugal.html
Portugal is our oldest ally for those who don't know their history. Never had a war against Portugal and been allies one way and another since 1378.
The Iberian Union (1580–1640), a 60-year dynastic union between Portugal and Spain, interrupted the alliance. Portuguese foreign policy became tied to Spanish hostility to England. As a result, Portugal and England were on opposite sides of the Anglo-Spanish War (1585–1604) and the Dutch–Portuguese War. The alliance was reconfirmed after the Portuguese Restoration War and the English Restoration.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Portuguese_Alliance0 -
Given the way the Posh Boys have threatened everyone it's hardly surprising that rich Tories are voting to protect their savings.... These two Posh Boys have told us that, in effect, the world will end on 24th June if we vote OUT.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're getting angry.chestnut said:
Show us the 10/10 on the 2015 Tory vote - not all the fake Lib Dem Tories.Big_G_NorthWales said:Telegraph reporting big change in Tory support for remain with 57% now in the remain camp
You don't like the Tories picking up support?
Their day of reckoning is coming though, of that you can have no doubt...0 -
If you had shown the nurse your 12" that would have been the hallmarks of a Bizarre Love Triangle?AlastairMeeks said:
I went for a medical before Christmas. The nurse asked my date of birth and noted that I'd just had my birthday, had I done anything nice? Well actually, I said, I'd been due to see New Order but hadn't been able to go.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And they're like 'yeah, yeah'TheScreamingEagles said:
Today I officially felt old today, I had to explain who MacGyver was to one of my staff today. They had never heard of MacGyver before, They are 18, it dawned on me they were born after Labour's victory in 1997.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Yes, and nature hadn't forced me to follow OGH on the hair style front then either.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was 11 when that happened, you old gitHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Makes me feel old reading this.BenedictWhite said:MikeSmithson said:
I remember that Ceausescu speech... Then they started laughing....And then you knew it was over.
That speech happened on my 19th birthday.
Things is different these days.
That sort of thing only gets worse.
"Who are New Order?"
"You will have heard their biggest track Blue Monday, even if you don't recognise the name of the track, it's played eveywhere. It was the biggest selling 12" ever."
"What's a 12"?"
At that point I quit when I was behind.
I'll get my coat0 -
New Order are headlining at Latitude Festival in July, so still time to catch them. I saw them at Glastonbury in 1987. Latitude is pretty chilled, lots of Guardian readers.AlastairMeeks said:
I went for a medical before Christmas. The nurse asked my date of birth and noted that I'd just had my birthday, had I done anything nice? Well actually, I said, I'd been due to see New Order but hadn't been able to go.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And they're like 'yeah, yeah'TheScreamingEagles said:
Today I officially felt old today, I had to explain who MacGyver was to one of my staff today. They had never heard of MacGyver before, They are 18, it dawned on me they were born after Labour's victory in 1997.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Yes, and nature hadn't forced me to follow OGH on the hair style front then either.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was 11 when that happened, you old gitHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Makes me feel old reading this.BenedictWhite said:MikeSmithson said:
I remember that Ceausescu speech... Then they started laughing....And then you knew it was over.
That speech happened on my 19th birthday.
Things is different these days.
That sort of thing only gets worse.
"Who are New Order?"
"You will have heard their biggest track Blue Monday, even if you don't recognise the name of the track, it's played eveywhere. It was the biggest selling 12" ever."
"What's a 12"?"
At that point I quit when I was behind.
.0 -
In Geneva, at the UN building.AlastairMeeks said:
I was 22. But by way of compensation, I was on a beach in Fiji that day.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was 11 when that happened, you old gitHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Makes me feel old reading this.BenedictWhite said:MikeSmithson said:
I remember that Ceausescu speech... Then they started laughing....And then you knew it was over.
That speech happened on my 19th birthday.0 -
The Telegraph article is up
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/23/eu-referendum-poll-pensioners-tory-voters-and-men-are-deserting/0 -
Rather important bit...TheScreamingEagles said:The figures I quoted earlier were the 10/10 voters, this is the all voters figures
twitter.com/NCPoliticsEU/status/734852258605715456
N=800
0 -
They didn't think they had much of a choice and would not have added much anyway.Sunil_Prasannan said:
They were on our side in WW!, but remained neutral in WW2.RobD said:
Never had a war against an independent PortugalVapidBilge said:
Nope.BenedictWhite said:Lloyd's say Leave would be fine. Nice to know a Portuguese CEO has our back.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3464958/We-ll-thrive-EU-says-bank-chief-Lloyds-boss-gives-vote-confidence-Brexit-s-Portugal.html
Portugal is our oldest ally for those who don't know their history. Never had a war against Portugal and been allies one way and another since 1378.
The Iberian Union (1580–1640), a 60-year dynastic union between Portugal and Spain, interrupted the alliance. Portuguese foreign policy became tied to Spanish hostility to England. As a result, Portugal and England were on opposite sides of the Anglo-Spanish War (1585–1604) and the Dutch–Portuguese War. The alliance was reconfirmed after the Portuguese Restoration War and the English Restoration.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Portuguese_Alliance
We did ask if they wouldn't mind terribly if we invaded the Azores, they said no, by all means. Fill your boots. Don't forget to tidy up afterwards.0 -
Really?Casino_Royale said:
Baffling.TheScreamingEagles said:
From canvassing experience, the Leave's spend the £350 million on the NHS line is going done well.Casino_Royale said:
That's interesting.AlastairMeeks said:It's my belief that austerity is what is driving the popularity of Leave.
If there is a vote to Leave, there might need to be an entirely new dictionary entry for hoist by one's own petard.
Work has been mad, but the only politics that has reached my ears these past days is the 350m line. Saw the Vote Leave ad on C4 tonight - first thought was that it would swing decent numbers of Labour voters. Combine it with the Turkey et all remarks and it makes huge campaign sense.
Shore up the core vote and reach out to left wing discontent at the same time.0 -
Not really, MOE on that sample is 3.4, as opposed to a 1,000 strong poll which is 3.1MarkHopkins said:
Rather important bit...TheScreamingEagles said:The figures I quoted earlier were the 10/10 voters, this is the all voters figures
twitter.com/NCPoliticsEU/status/734852258605715456
N=8000 -
The Express, undaunted, is going for a lurid Leave headline:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7348553189334753280 -
You're underestimating the voters, you sound like a Labour supporter after the last election.GIN1138 said:
Given the way the Posh Boys have threatened everyone it's hardly surprising that rich Tories are voting to protect their savings.... These two Posh Boys have told us that, in effect, the world will end on 24th June is we vote OUT.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're getting angry.chestnut said:
Show us the 10/10 on the 2015 Tory vote - not all the fake Lib Dem Tories.Big_G_NorthWales said:Telegraph reporting big change in Tory support for remain with 57% now in the remain camp
You don't like the Tories picking up support?
Their day of reckoning is coming though, of that you can have no doubt...
'Tories only won because of fear'
Nope, we won, because we judged to be better than the alternative.0 -
Let's see the tables.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not really, MOE on that sample is 3.4, as opposed to a 1,000 strong poll which is 3.1MarkHopkins said:
Rather important bit...TheScreamingEagles said:The figures I quoted earlier were the 10/10 voters, this is the all voters figures
twitter.com/NCPoliticsEU/status/734852258605715456
N=800
The overall number is a swing to Leave.0 -
Well, it could have problems with hard to reach Tory voters if the BES study is anything to go byTheScreamingEagles said:
Not really, MOE on that sample is 3.4, as opposed to a 1,000 strong poll which is 3.1MarkHopkins said:
Rather important bit...TheScreamingEagles said:The figures I quoted earlier were the 10/10 voters, this is the all voters figures
twitter.com/NCPoliticsEU/status/734852258605715456
N=8000 -
3% undecided simply isn't credible, we've said this about every ORB poll.MarkHopkins said:
Rather important bit...TheScreamingEagles said:The figures I quoted earlier were the 10/10 voters, this is the all voters figures
twitter.com/NCPoliticsEU/status/734852258605715456
N=8000 -
A Netmums poll.AlastairMeeks said:The Express, undaunted, is going for a lurid Leave headline:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7348553189334753280 -
Tory voters seem to be prepared to follow their leadership. You have to wonder what British politics would look like if mainstream Tories had spent the last 25 years actually standing up for what they believed in instead of pretending to agree with the populist right.0
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You weren't expecting a news story, surely?TheScreamingEagles said:
A Netmums poll.AlastairMeeks said:The Express, undaunted, is going for a lurid Leave headline:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7348553189334753280 -
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/732785721145188352AlastairMeeks said:The Express, undaunted, is going for a lurid Leave headline:
//twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7348553189334753280 -
Sir Lynton Crosby knows
In an analysis of the data, Sir Lynton Crosby, who masterminded the Conservative Party’s general election victory last year, warns that the Leave campaign is “dwindling” and has “failed to quell ongoing concerns about the financial and economic consequences of a Brexit”.0 -
I'm a hopeless optimistAlastairMeeks said:
You weren't expecting a news story, surely?TheScreamingEagles said:
A Netmums poll.AlastairMeeks said:The Express, undaunted, is going for a lurid Leave headline:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7348553189334753280 -
which is a problem fundamentally unaffected by sample sizeBenedictWhite said:
Well, it could have problems with hard to reach Tory voters if the BES study is anything to go byTheScreamingEagles said:
Not really, MOE on that sample is 3.4, as opposed to a 1,000 strong poll which is 3.1MarkHopkins said:
Rather important bit...TheScreamingEagles said:The figures I quoted earlier were the 10/10 voters, this is the all voters figures
twitter.com/NCPoliticsEU/status/734852258605715456
N=8000 -
It is all those decisive people with smart phones....Plato_Says said:
3% undecided simply isn't credible, we've said this about every ORB poll.MarkHopkins said:
Rather important bit...TheScreamingEagles said:The figures I quoted earlier were the 10/10 voters, this is the all voters figures
twitter.com/NCPoliticsEU/status/734852258605715456
N=800
0 -
Hugo Rifkind has a good article in The Times about what he calls "banter", by which he means politicians espousing views they don't really believe.edmundintokyo said:Tory voters seem to be prepared to follow their leadership. You have to wonder what British politics would look like if mainstream Tories had spent the last 25 years actually standing up for what they believed in instead of pretending to agree with the populist right.
He predicts this referendum should see it's end
That will be tackling the banter. It’s got to go, even if that means some Tories go with it. If nothing else, it simply won’t work any more. No longer will ministers be able to score easy points by pandering to an insidious, tolerated ideal of a Britain that goes it alone. No longer will they be able to keep the party’s right away from Ukip by intimating, albeit with coy and smirking deniability, that they’re all on the same side. They aren’t. They never were, and finally they’ll have to be honest about it. The banter boat has sailed.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/from-now-on-theres-no-room-for-tory-banter-lsctj5j760 -
Economic arguments not working for LEAVE because nobody is articulating them. REMAIN articulate why quitting the union would be risky, but LEAVE don't have anyone saying why exiting would make people better off, they just say you can't believe anyone, which hardly encourages people to believe LEAVE. YES did a better job in that regard.
So they campaign on a Ukip immigration line and increasingly seem to look more like a Ukip than a Conservative campaign. Perhaps with a similar type of result.0 -
0
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+1edmundintokyo said:Tory voters seem to be prepared to follow their leadership. You have to wonder what British politics would look like if mainstream Tories had spent the last 25 years actually standing up for what they believed in instead of pretending to agree with the populist right.
0 -
Spot on.Casino_Royale said:
It's not that the UK doesn't have a veto. It's that the UK is loving it, loving it, loving it.Plato_Says said:Paul Waugh
No10 spokesman confirms official UK policy *is* to support Turkey membership of EU. "I'm not trying to change govt policy" on that, he says
However, personally, I think the UK Government is lying. It is in favour of Turkey joining in principle, but not in practice.
And, truth be told, that's true of a lot of European countries.0 -
They hate Cameron more than the EU. He's a winner, and they don't like that.TheScreamingEagles said:Yup, Leavers know they have lost
0 -
How were LEAVE ever going to "quell" concerns over financial and economic consequences of Brexit given the way The Posh Boys have lined up the entire British establishment and all international bodies to threaten their own citizens?TheScreamingEagles said:Sir Lynton Crosby knows
In an analysis of the data, Sir Lynton Crosby, who masterminded the Conservative Party’s general election victory last year, warns that the Leave campaign is “dwindling” and has “failed to quell ongoing concerns about the financial and economic consequences of a Brexit”.
BTW, how did this creep Crosby end up with a Knighthood? I think I missed that...0 -
How polite of us.BenedictWhite said:
They didn't think they had much of a choice and would not have added much anyway.Sunil_Prasannan said:
They were on our side in WW!, but remained neutral in WW2.RobD said:
Never had a war against an independent PortugalVapidBilge said:
Nope.BenedictWhite said:Lloyd's say Leave would be fine. Nice to know a Portuguese CEO has our back.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3464958/We-ll-thrive-EU-says-bank-chief-Lloyds-boss-gives-vote-confidence-Brexit-s-Portugal.html
Portugal is our oldest ally for those who don't know their history. Never had a war against Portugal and been allies one way and another since 1378.
The Iberian Union (1580–1640), a 60-year dynastic union between Portugal and Spain, interrupted the alliance. Portuguese foreign policy became tied to Spanish hostility to England. As a result, Portugal and England were on opposite sides of the Anglo-Spanish War (1585–1604) and the Dutch–Portuguese War. The alliance was reconfirmed after the Portuguese Restoration War and the English Restoration.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Portuguese_Alliance
We did ask if they wouldn't mind terribly if we invaded the Azores, they said no, by all means. Fill your boots. Don't forget to tidy up afterwards. 0 -
Would it be suitable to take my 8 and 6 year old children?foxinsoxuk said:
New Order are headlining at Latitude Festival in July, so still time to catch them. I saw them at Glastonbury in 1987. Latitude is pretty chilled, lots of Guardian readers.AlastairMeeks said:
I went for a medical before Christmas. The nurse asked my date of birth and noted that I'd just had my birthday, had I done anything nice? Well actually, I said, I'd been due to see New Order but hadn't been able to go.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And they're like 'yeah, yeah'TheScreamingEagles said:
Today I officially felt old today, I had to explain who MacGyver was to one of my staff today. They had never heard of MacGyver before, They are 18, it dawned on me they were born after Labour's victory in 1997.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Yes, and nature hadn't forced me to follow OGH on the hair style front then either.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was 11 when that happened, you old gitHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Makes me feel old reading this.BenedictWhite said:MikeSmithson said:
I remember that Ceausescu speech... Then they started laughing....And then you knew it was over.
That speech happened on my 19th birthday.
Things is different these days.
That sort of thing only gets worse.
"Who are New Order?"
"You will have heard their biggest track Blue Monday, even if you don't recognise the name of the track, it's played eveywhere. It was the biggest selling 12" ever."
"What's a 12"?"
At that point I quit when I was behind.
.
The National are playing, and they are AWESOME0 -
Sir Lynton Crosby is writing for the Daily Telegraph whose readership wants what?TheScreamingEagles said:Sir Lynton Crosby knows
How do you motivate them?0 -
Leave could have gone down the EEA route, but they chose not to.GIN1138 said:
How were LEAVE ever going to "quell" concerns over financial and economic consequences of Brexit given the way The Posh Boys have lined up the entire British establishment and all international bodies to threaten their own citizens?TheScreamingEagles said:Sir Lynton Crosby knows
In an analysis of the data, Sir Lynton Crosby, who masterminded the Conservative Party’s general election victory last year, warns that the Leave campaign is “dwindling” and has “failed to quell ongoing concerns about the financial and economic consequences of a Brexit”.
BTW, how did this creep Crosby end up with a Knighthood? I think I missed that...
Labour's election chief got a peerage, the Tory election chief just got a K.0 -
@jimwaterson: The new confirmed lineup for the world's first anti-EU music festival looks pretty amazing really. Can't wait. https://t.co/TcFTYn9Xlb0
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Mrs Eek took our twins there 7 years ago (aged 7) by herself. Nothing to worry about as there is plenty of child friendly activities and the family camping is families only...rcs1000 said:
Would it be suitable to take my 8 and 6 year old children?foxinsoxuk said:
New Order are headlining at Latitude Festival in July, so still time to catch them. I saw them at Glastonbury in 1987. Latitude is pretty chilled, lots of Guardian readers.AlastairMeeks said:
I went for a medical before Christmas. The nurse asked my date of birth and noted that I'd just had my birthday, had I done anything nice? Well actually, I said, I'd been due to see New Order but hadn't been able to go.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And they're like 'yeah, yeah'TheScreamingEagles said:
Today I officially felt old today, I had to explain who MacGyver was to one of my staff today. They had never heard of MacGyver before, They are 18, it dawned on me they were born after Labour's victory in 1997.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Yes, and nature hadn't forced me to follow OGH on the hair style front then either.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was 11 when that happened, you old gitHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Makes me feel old reading this.BenedictWhite said:MikeSmithson said:
I remember that Ceausescu speech... Then they started laughing....And then you knew it was over.
That speech happened on my 19th birthday.
Things is different these days.
That sort of thing only gets worse.
"Who are New Order?"
"You will have heard their biggest track Blue Monday, even if you don't recognise the name of the track, it's played eveywhere. It was the biggest selling 12" ever."
"What's a 12"?"
At that point I quit when I was behind.
.
The National are playing, and they are AWESOME0 -
I hate Osborne more...Scott_P said:
They hate Cameron more than the EU. He's a winner, and they don't like that.TheScreamingEagles said:Yup, Leavers know they have lost
0 -
I hope that tweet is a joke.Scott_P said:@jimwaterson: The new confirmed lineup for the world's first anti-EU music festival looks pretty amazing really. Can't wait. https://t.co/TcFTYn9Xlb
0 -
What a tedious line this is. The Tory party is ruthless when winning is on the line.Scott_P said:
They hate Cameron more than the EU. He's a winner, and they don't like that.TheScreamingEagles said:Yup, Leavers know they have lost
With our current leadership and its hapless approach to public policy, winning won't be a likelihood next time.0 -
As Cameron won't be leader anyway, by his own announcement, you don't need to worry on that score.Mortimer said:
What a tedious line this is. The Tory party is ruthless when winning is on the line.Scott_P said:
They hate Cameron more than the EU. He's a winner, and they don't like that.TheScreamingEagles said:Yup, Leavers know they have lost
With our current leadership and its hapless approach to public policy, winning won't be a likelihood next time.0
