politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the EURef poster campaigns are about to start Roger eval

Luckyguy1983 said:

logical_song said:

The scientific consensus on Climate Change:
http://theconversation.com/the-things-people-ask-about-the-scientific-consensus-on-climate-change-59243

I find it amusing that you have no idea of the irony inherent in the phrase 'scientific consensus'.

Yes, it's a ridiculous phrase.

It's even more ridiculous when applied to economics - as it has been by the REMAINIACS recently - where you cannot experimentally prove anything.

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/725339057669165058

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.

I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.

Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.

Dunno. Even if that's true it might help with turnout.

Given the current fashion for using animals as advertising props... what species are left? Snakes for Remain?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1ILPl5FQaM

anothernick said:

MaxPB said:

anothernick said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.

Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.

Why would the Tory party collapse?

I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.

It would certainly be fascinating to watch, if Parliament simply refused to accept a narrow vote to Leave.

I imagine that UKIP would make big gains in 2020.

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.

I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.

Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.

What might your ideas be, for either side?

I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)

The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.

Luckyguy1983 said:

logical_song said:

The scientific consensus on Climate Change:
http://theconversation.com/the-things-people-ask-about-the-scientific-consensus-on-climate-change-59243

I find it amusing that you have no idea of the irony inherent in the phrase 'scientific consensus'.

It's an accurate description. The overwhelming body of serious opinion agrees on the core facts, matching the dictionary definition of consensus: "a generally accepted opinion or decision among a group of people". While not unanimous, it's as unanimous as you are going to get. Man made climate change is as much a scientific consensus as competitive evolution of species, for example. Beyond the generally agreed core facts there is a lot of scope for different theories, opinions and general sceptism, however.

VapidBilge said:

Stark_Dawning said:

TonyE said:

CarlottaVance said:

The 'German Puppet' has been done before:

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01614/1997-europe_1614440i.jpg

Probably a bit less effective on the basis that hardly anyone knew what Kohl looked like. Merkel on the other hand........

Bitty?

The problem with doing Dave as Merkel's puppet is that Germany is no longer seen as the supreme power that it was in Kohl's day.

You don't half post some nonsense on here.

In Kohl's day Germany was divided with a quarter under hostile military occupation.

Once the Berlin Wall came down, then we were talking dominant power in Europe.

German Reunification was in 1990. That poster was from the 1997 general election.

CarlottaVance said:

VapidBilge said:

Stark_Dawning said:

TonyE said:

CarlottaVance said:

The 'German Puppet' has been done before:

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01614/1997-europe_1614440i.jpg

Probably a bit less effective on the basis that hardly anyone knew what Kohl looked like. Merkel on the other hand........

Bitty?

The problem with doing Dave as Merkel's puppet is that Germany is no longer seen as the supreme power that it was in Kohl's day.

You don't half post some nonsense on here.

In Kohl's day Germany was divided with a quarter under hostile military occupation.

Once the Berlin Wall came down, then we were talking dominant power in Europe.

The Kohl/Blair poster is from 1997

7 years after the wall came down.

Who doesn't half post some nonsense on here?

Nonsense? Vapid Bilge, surely!

Richard_Nabavi said:

Plato_Says said:

Given the current fashion for using animals as advertising props... what species are left? Snakes for Remain?

They've already got Mandy!

Ha! A friend has a snake called Mandelson.

Sandpit said:

anothernick said:

foxinsoxuk said:

anothernick said:

MaxPB said:

anothernick said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.

Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.

Why would the Tory party collapse?

I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.

Presumably Farage would be keen on a second referendum if there is a a close Leave win.

Undoubtedly.

It's very hard to predict what would happen if there is a close Leave win on a low turnout. However I very much doubt the current Parliament would pass legislation to leave in such circumstances. About 75% of MPs oppose leaving and for many - perhaps most - it is an issue of principle which transcends all other considerations. A prolonged period of uncertainty would ensue, and the Tory party would be consumed by internal dissension as activists tried to deselect Remainers or force them into line.

The vote is the vote. If Leave wins then we leave. Any Tory MP who thinks his own view trumps that of a referendum will quickly find himself deselected. It's unfathomable that Leave wins a vote of the people and the politicians conspire to ensure we remain.

Furthermore, I can't see the SNP even voting (assuming Scotland voted to Remain, they'd be licking their lips and looking forward to demanding another referendum), and the DUP would vote in favour too. There's also a substantial minority of Labour MPs who would clearly not vote against the will of the electorate (especially those who lived in seats where the Leave vote had been substantial).

All in all, I cannot see any (likely) circumstances where the will of the people would be ignored.

Sandpit said:

anothernick said:

foxinsoxuk said:

anothernick said:

MaxPB said:

anothernick said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.

Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.

Why would the Tory party collapse?

I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.

Presumably Farage would be keen on a second referendum if there is a a close Leave win.

Undoubtedly.

It's very hard to predict what would happen if there is a close Leave win on a low turnout. However I very much doubt the current Parliament would pass legislation to leave in such circumstances. About 75% of MPs oppose leaving and for many - perhaps most - it is an issue of principle which transcends all other considerations. A prolonged period of uncertainty would ensue, and the Tory party would be consumed by internal dissension as activists tried to deselect Remainers or force them into line.

The vote is the vote. If Leave wins then we leave. Any Tory MP who thinks his own view trumps that of a referendum will quickly find himself deselected. It's unfathomable that Leave wins a vote of the people and the politicians conspire to ensure we remain.

If only politics were that simple....

Sunil_Prasannan said:

taffys said:

''On ISIS one would have thought the opposite is true, they would surely support Remain so that ISIS fighters would still have easy access to the UK. ''

It would be hilarious if some ISIS spokesman actually came out and said that.

ISIS, like the EU, believe in a single, supranational bureaucracy!

Believe in BRITAIN!

Be LEAVE!

I thought the whole idea of ISIS was creating a Islamic state. See: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

Why all this talk of Parliament in the event a Leave vote?

If Cameron triggers Article 50, for which he doesn't need a vote, that's it.

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.

I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.

Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.

What might your ideas be, for either side?

I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)

The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.

Thanks interesting.

I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.

Will have a think..

Believe in FREEDOM!
Believe in DEMOCRACY!
Believe in SOVEREIGNTY!
Believe in THE POUND!

But most importantly of all:

Believe in BRITAIN!

Be LEAVE!

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

anothernick said:

foxinsoxuk said:

anothernick said:

MaxPB said:

anothernick said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.

Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.

Why would the Tory party collapse?

I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.

Presumably Farage would be keen on a second referendum if there is a a close Leave win.

Undoubtedly.

It's very hard to predict what would happen if there is a close Leave win on a low turnout. However I very much doubt the current Parliament would pass legislation to leave in such circumstances. About 75% of MPs oppose leaving and for many - perhaps most - it is an issue of principle which transcends all other considerations. A prolonged period of uncertainty would ensue, and the Tory party would be consumed by internal dissension as activists tried to deselect Remainers or force them into line.

The vote is the vote. If Leave wins then we leave. Any Tory MP who thinks his own view trumps that of a referendum will quickly find himself deselected. It's unfathomable that Leave wins a vote of the people and the politicians conspire to ensure we remain.

Furthermore, I can't see the SNP even voting (assuming Scotland voted to Remain, they'd be licking their lips and looking forward to demanding another referendum),

They might vote if they were confident it were to be a futile valiant gesture....

Williamz said:

Mr Sandpit

Do you really trust politicians who are rampantly pro-EU to just roll over and vote out?? A lib Dem Lord is not going give two hoots for the view of the people and vote to Leave. It simply wont happen.

Then the EU will offer a "massive" concession on free movement and its all back on the EU bus.

Politicians care about one thing: getting re-elected.

In what way do you think ignoring the will of the people increases their chance of re-election?

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

logical_song said:

The scientific consensus on Climate Change:
http://theconversation.com/the-things-people-ask-about-the-scientific-consensus-on-climate-change-59243

I find it amusing that you have no idea of the irony inherent in the phrase 'scientific consensus'.

It's an accurate description. The overwhelming body of serious opinion agrees on the core facts, matching the dictionary definition of consensus: "a generally accepted opinion or decision among a group of people". While not unanimous, it's as unanimous as you are going to get. Man made climate change is as much a scientific consensus as competitive evolution of species, for example. Beyond the generally agreed core facts there is a lot of scope for different theories, opinions and general sceptism, however.

In this instance, I'm not actually disputing the existence of a concensus (that's another argument entirely), I'm just baffled by the trumpeting of one in a field such as science as being something beneficial. It's like Gallileo never happened. Very kind of you to allow scientists to investigate ALL THE DIFFERENT WAYS humans are responsible for global warming though. Any colour of Ford as long as etc.

Scott_P said:

Why all this talk of Parliament in the event a Leave vote?

If Cameron triggers Article 50, for which he doesn't need a vote, that's it.

This is one bit I have no idea about. I have assumed that Cameron will invoke article 50 almost immediately and I am clear about the EU side of the process from then on. But what is the UK constitutional part of the process? Can Parliament or the Lords block it? This is more of a general interest question rather than a specific question on whether they would have the will to do so.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

Thanks interesting.

I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.

Will have a think..

That kind of thing is very tricky to do. If you're not very careful, you end up with something as cringeworthy as this:

https://static-secure.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/About/General/2010/4/12/1271071125920/Cover-of-the-Labour-Manif-007.jpg

"A Future Blair for All!"

Luckyguy1983 said:

It's like Gallileo never happened.

Galileo was different. He was a scientist challenging a religious concens... Oh, wait, never mind.

FF43 said:

anothernick said:

foxinsoxuk said:

anothernick said:

MaxPB said:

anothernick said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.

Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.

Why would the Tory party collapse?

I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.

Presumably Farage would be keen on a second referendum if there is a a close Leave win.

Undoubtedly.

It's very hard to predict what would happen if there is a close Leave win on a low turnout. However I very much doubt the current Parliament would pass legislation to leave in such circumstances. About 75% of MPs oppose leaving and for many - perhaps most - it is an issue of principle which transcends all other considerations. A prolonged period of uncertainty would ensue, and the Tory party would be consumed by internal dissension as activists tried to deselect Remainers or force them into line.

MPs would be committed by the referendum to vote Britain out of the EU, .

Not necessarily - Parliament is sovereign - the referendum is advisory and MPs are perfectly entitled to reject its advice. They might not do their future careers much good if they do, but, as I said before, Europe is fundamental to many MPs - they might well be prepared to risk their careers for it.

Can you imagine Ken Clarke of Nick Soames (or even George Osborne) meekly voting to leave, whatever the referendum might say?

Richard_Tyndall said:

Can Parliament or the Lords block it?

I can't see how.

As a question, not entirely innocent, how close does the brains trust think is the correlation between turnout and result in the referendum? ie can Remain win on a turnout of 55%? Can Leave win on a turnout of 65%?

Luckyguy1983 said:

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

logical_song said:

The scientific consensus on Climate Change:
http://theconversation.com/the-things-people-ask-about-the-scientific-consensus-on-climate-change-59243

I find it amusing that you have no idea of the irony inherent in the phrase 'scientific consensus'.

It's an accurate description. The overwhelming body of serious opinion agrees on the core facts, matching the dictionary definition of consensus: "a generally accepted opinion or decision among a group of people". While not unanimous, it's as unanimous as you are going to get. Man made climate change is as much a scientific consensus as competitive evolution of species, for example. Beyond the generally agreed core facts there is a lot of scope for different theories, opinions and general sceptism, however.

In this instance, I'm not actually disputing the existence of a concensus (that's another argument entirely), I'm just baffled by the trumpeting of one in a field such as science as being something beneficial. It's like Gallileo never happened. Very kind of you to allow scientists to investigate ALL THE DIFFERENT WAYS humans are responsible for global warming though. Any colour of Ford as long as etc.

You have to agree on certain core principles otherwise you end up with noise. The difference between man made climate climate change and competitive evolution of species (as examples) is that the first is politically charged. Everyone accepts the second and does their research using those assumptions. Building on assumptions moves the science forward.

AlastairMeeks said:

As a question, not entirely innocent, how close does the brains trust think is the correlation between turnout and result in the referendum? ie can Remain win on a turnout of 55%? Can Leave win on a turnout of 65%?

What was the turnout like in 1975?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

Thanks interesting.

I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.

Will have a think..

That kind of thing is very tricky to do. If you're not very careful, you end up with something as cringeworthy as this:

https://static-secure.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/About/General/2010/4/12/1271071125920/Cover-of-the-Labour-Manif-007.jpg

Which is why I'm not an ad exec!

VapidBilge said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.

I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.

Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.

What might your ideas be, for either side?

I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)

The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.

Thanks interesting.

I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.

Will have a think..

Dad's Army opening credits?

Who do you think you are kidding Mrs Merkel
If you think we're on the run?
We are the boys who will stop your little game!
We are the boys who will make you think again!

TOPPING said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.

I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.

Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.

What might your ideas be, for either side?

I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)

The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.

I'd have a customs officer sitting on the floor looking dejected and dishevelled beside a broken-down door through which a solid line of people of all types (but to hedge, white men, women & children, all prosperous - a la Labour isn't working) are trooping.

Not bad.

runnymede said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scott_P said:

Why all this talk of Parliament in the event a Leave vote?

If Cameron triggers Article 50, for which he doesn't need a vote, that's it.

This is one bit I have no idea about. I have assumed that Cameron will invoke article 50 almost immediately and I am clear about the EU side of the process from then on. But what is the UK constitutional part of the process? Can Parliament or the Lords block it? This is more of a general interest question rather than a specific question on whether they would have the will to do so.

There is no question that they could, if they wanted to.

It's also obvious that this possibility is being given serious consideration. Which speaks volumes.

They cannot block the invocation of Article 50, as that is in the perogative of the Executive. They could, obviously, block the repeal of the European Communities Act, but that would - presumably - not happen for some time.

Mr RCS1000

Your argument stands of course but there doesn't seem to be much logic involved on this topic. Who would have thought we would have seen the antics we have from Cameron and other Tories. Its utterly bonkers and you have to expect their behaviour to become even more unhinged after a defeat.

And as for the Lords.........

AlastairMeeks said:

As a question, not entirely innocent, how close does the brains trust think is the correlation between turnout and result in the referendum? ie can Remain win on a turnout of 55%? Can Leave win on a turnout of 65%?

https://twitter.com/timesredbox/status/732528054241759232

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/732551297950482432

Is the invocation of Article 50 done with some dramatic presser device, like the Omega 13 in Galaxy Quest?

VapidBilge said:

He may sign it, but surely on behalf of the Government.

Or have we moved to Presidential Government instead of Cabinet Government?

He'll sign it as a representative of the settled will of the British People

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.

I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.

Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.

What might your ideas be, for either side?

I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)

The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.

Thanks interesting.

I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.

Will have a think..

I think we should have a poster of Cameron, Osborne, Mandelson, Juncker, with horns and fangs, and wearing Nazi armbands.

Scott_P said:

It does look like the Brexiteers know they have lost and are gearing up for the next one...

@GdnPolitics: Boris Johnon: no guarantee vote to remain will settle EU issue for ever https://t.co/ubyi7bWzH4

All this talk of a second referendum is vapid bilge.

Leave contend that a vote to Remain is a vote for absorbtion into a European superstate against our will. A second referendum as a possibility argues against this in that if things changed to a position that we dislike then we could always leave at a later stage.

Also on this thread I can see why politicians are keen on employing decent ad agencies at great expense. Ideas from political fanatics rarely convert the middle ground, indeed many are repelled by their ludicrousness. Roger is safe in his job for the forseable!

@JoeMurphyLondon: Nigel Farage is now talking about the possibility of a "narrow defeat" for the Brexiteers. https://t.co/UxSBsCSy9I

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.

I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.

Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.

What might your ideas be, for either side?

I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)

The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.

Thanks interesting.

I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.

Will have a think..

Wasn't there one which had a lion in a net?

rcs1000 said:

Invoking Article 50 itself does not require a parliamentary vote, but that the (inevitable and ultimate) repeal of the European Communities Act does.

If Cameron did not invoke Article 50 within - say - 10 days, does anyone think he would avoid a challenge? And survive a challenge?

You are right that there is not a snowflake's chance in hell of the Conservative government not accepting the result of the referendum. The party has been split for years, has agreed to disagree, and has ended up with everyone accepting that the only way to resolve the issue is through the referendum. Whichever side they are on, pretty much everyone is going to accept the result - as you rightly point out, it would be electoral suicide not to to do so (not to mention impossible within the party itself). For that matter, I think MPs from other parties would mostly agree.

Whether Article 50 would be invoked as quickly as you suggest is less clear to me. I don't think there would be a long delay (because apart from anything else, we'd need to get this over with before bumping up against the next election). On the other hand, there's a strong argument for allowing a bit of time for preliminary discussions with our EU friends, and for discussions within the government, party and country at large as to what sort of deal we should be seeking. The two-year deadline is already tight.

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.

I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.

Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.

What might your ideas be, for either side?

I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)

The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.

Thanks interesting.

I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.

Will have a think..

I think we should have a poster of Cameron, Osborne, Mandelson, Juncker, with horns and fangs, and wearing Nazi armbands.

Massive lol!!

rcs1000 said:

Williamz said:

Mr Sandpit

Do you really trust politicians who are rampantly pro-EU to just roll over and vote out?? A lib Dem Lord is not going give two hoots for the view of the people and vote to Leave. It simply wont happen.

Then the EU will offer a "massive" concession on free movement and its all back on the EU bus.

Politicians care about one thing: getting re-elected.

In what way do you think ignoring the will of the people increases their chance of re-election?

Lords don't need to be re-elected.

But I think Cameron might threaten to flood the Lords if they tried that. It would be a way to regain some credibility

The trouble with the assorted:
-EU is crap
-EU is bureaucratic
-EU has our politicians by the short and curlies
and even
-EU is costly
poster ideas is IMO that people already think these things. Even most convinced Remainers think these things. So there seems little point in posters to further convince people. The aim needs to be to turn these notions into the act of voting (or not voting for your opponent). How do these things affect me? How will they affect me in the future?

Richard_Tyndall said:

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

logical_song said:

The scientific consensus on Climate Change:
http://theconversation.com/the-things-people-ask-about-the-scientific-consensus-on-climate-change-59243

I find it amusing that you have no idea of the irony inherent in the phrase 'scientific consensus'.

It's an accurate description. The overwhelming body of serious opinion agrees on the core facts, matching the dictionary definition of consensus: "a generally accepted opinion or decision among a group of people". While not unanimous, it's as unanimous as you are going to get. Man made climate change is as much a scientific consensus as competitive evolution of species, for example. Beyond the generally agreed core facts there is a lot of scope for different theories, opinions and general sceptism, however.

In this instance, I'm not actually disputing the existence of a concensus (that's another argument entirely), I'm just baffled by the trumpeting of one in a field such as science as being something beneficial. It's like Gallileo never happened. Very kind of you to allow scientists to investigate ALL THE DIFFERENT WAYS humans are responsible for global warming though. Any colour of Ford as long as etc.

You have to agree on certain core principles otherwise you end up with noise. The difference between man made climate climate change and competitive evolution of species (as examples) is that the first is politically charged. Everyone accepts the second and does their research using those assumptions. Building on assumptions moves the science forward.

No. The difference is that the theory of evolution was based upon long term observation backed up by experimentation whilst the AGW hypothesis is based on models. Models are not the equivalent of experimentation.

This is something I try to explain to people re. economics as well.

You can design models to show almost anything.

Richard_Nabavi said:

there's a strong argument for allowing a bit of time for preliminary discussions with our EU friends, and for discussions within the government, party and country at large as to what sort of deal we should be seeking. The two-year deadline is already tight.

The "official" line is talks can't start until Article 50 is triggered