I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.
Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...
FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.
Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.
Why would the Tory party collapse?
I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.
Presumably Farage would be keen on a second referendum if there is a a close Leave win.
Considering the vast advantages Remain have had (backing of international agencies, £9 million mail drop, use of the Civil Service and even Civil Servants publicly speaking in favour), any Leave vote would represent the true will of the British people.
That's the trouble with cheating - it invalidates your victory.
To all those PB posters who are absolutely desperate for the Tory Party to fall apart..It wont..Just because you don't like them does not mean they are stupid..but keep wishing..
A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.
Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"
#Vote Leave
Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.
I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.
Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.
Dunno. Even if that's true it might help with turnout.
A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.
Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"
#Vote Leave
Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.
I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.
Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.
''On ISIS one would have thought the opposite is true, they would surely support Remain so that ISIS fighters would still have easy access to the UK. ''
It would be hilarious if some ISIS spokesman actually came out and said that.
ISIS, like the EU, believe in a single, supranational bureaucracy!
It occurs to me that people get paid very well for doing exactly what we are on here, except they do it wearing funky bow ties, Paul Smith shirts and immaculately trimmed beards.
I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.
Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...
FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.
Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.
Why would the Tory party collapse?
I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.
It would certainly be fascinating to watch, if Parliament simply refused to accept a narrow vote to Leave.
A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.
Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"
#Vote Leave
Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.
I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.
Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.
What might your ideas be, for either side?
I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)
The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.
I find it amusing that you have no idea of the irony inherent in the phrase 'scientific consensus'.
It's an accurate description. The overwhelming body of serious opinion agrees on the core facts, matching the dictionary definition of consensus: "a generally accepted opinion or decision among a group of people". While not unanimous, it's as unanimous as you are going to get. Man made climate change is as much a scientific consensus as competitive evolution of species, for example. Beyond the generally agreed core facts there is a lot of scope for different theories, opinions and general sceptism, however.
I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.
Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...
FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.
Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.
Why would the Tory party collapse?
I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.
Presumably Farage would be keen on a second referendum if there is a a close Leave win.
Undoubtedly.
It's very hard to predict what would happen if there is a close Leave win on a low turnout. However I very much doubt the current Parliament would pass legislation to leave in such circumstances. About 75% of MPs oppose leaving and for many - perhaps most - it is an issue of principle which transcends all other considerations. A prolonged period of uncertainty would ensue, and the Tory party would be consumed by internal dissension as activists tried to deselect Remainers or force them into line.
The vote is the vote. If Leave wins then we leave. Any Tory MP who thinks his own view trumps that of a referendum will quickly find himself deselected. It's unfathomable that Leave wins a vote of the people and the politicians conspire to ensure we remain.
"MacAskill wrote that he and former First Minister Alex Salmond sought new powers for Holyrood in exchange for accepting a prisoner transfer agreement."
I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.
Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...
FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.
Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.
Why would the Tory party collapse?
I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.
Presumably Farage would be keen on a second referendum if there is a a close Leave win.
Undoubtedly.
It's very hard to predict what would happen if there is a close Leave win on a low turnout. However I very much doubt the current Parliament would pass legislation to leave in such circumstances. About 75% of MPs oppose leaving and for many - perhaps most - it is an issue of principle which transcends all other considerations. A prolonged period of uncertainty would ensue, and the Tory party would be consumed by internal dissension as activists tried to deselect Remainers or force them into line.
The vote is the vote. If Leave wins then we leave. Any Tory MP who thinks his own view trumps that of a referendum will quickly find himself deselected. It's unfathomable that Leave wins a vote of the people and the politicians conspire to ensure we remain.
Furthermore, I can't see the SNP even voting (assuming Scotland voted to Remain, they'd be licking their lips and looking forward to demanding another referendum), and the DUP would vote in favour too. There's also a substantial minority of Labour MPs who would clearly not vote against the will of the electorate (especially those who lived in seats where the Leave vote had been substantial).
All in all, I cannot see any (likely) circumstances where the will of the people would be ignored.
I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.
Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...
FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.
Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.
Why would the Tory party collapse?
I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.
Presumably Farage would be keen on a second referendum if there is a a close Leave win.
Undoubtedly.
It's very hard to predict what would happen if there is a close Leave win on a low turnout. However I very much doubt the current Parliament would pass legislation to leave in such circumstances. About 75% of MPs oppose leaving and for many - perhaps most - it is an issue of principle which transcends all other considerations. A prolonged period of uncertainty would ensue, and the Tory party would be consumed by internal dissension as activists tried to deselect Remainers or force them into line.
The vote is the vote. If Leave wins then we leave. Any Tory MP who thinks his own view trumps that of a referendum will quickly find himself deselected. It's unfathomable that Leave wins a vote of the people and the politicians conspire to ensure we remain.
A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.
Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"
#Vote Leave
Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.
I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.
Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.
What might your ideas be, for either side?
I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)
The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.
Thanks interesting.
I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.
''On ISIS one would have thought the opposite is true, they would surely support Remain so that ISIS fighters would still have easy access to the UK. ''
It would be hilarious if some ISIS spokesman actually came out and said that.
ISIS, like the EU, believe in a single, supranational bureaucracy!
I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.
Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...
FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.
Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.
Why would the Tory party collapse?
I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.
Presumably Farage would be keen on a second referendum if there is a a close Leave win.
Undoubtedly.
It's very hard to predict what would happen if there is a close Leave win on a low turnout. However I very much doubt the current Parliament would pass legislation to leave in such circumstances. About 75% of MPs oppose leaving and for many - perhaps most - it is an issue of principle which transcends all other considerations. A prolonged period of uncertainty would ensue, and the Tory party would be consumed by internal dissension as activists tried to deselect Remainers or force them into line.
MPs would be committed by the referendum to vote Britain out of the EU, but not for any specific alternative arrangement. They could add a whole lot of conditionality. We require full market access, or whatever. The fact the Leave party don't agree on the alternatives to EU membership and are keeping what happens next very vague, makes filibustering easier.
Hillary v Trump is not going to be a nice campaign. I'm expecting Trump to go very hard on how she's in the pay of big corporations and pick up a load of Bernie supporters. Have bet accordingly.
He's really closed the gap with her; and I've similarly made a small investment in Trump.
A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.
Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"
#Vote Leave
Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.
I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.
Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.
What might your ideas be, for either side?
I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)
The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.
Thanks interesting.
I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.
Will have a think..
Believe in FREEDOM! Believe in DEMOCRACY! Believe in SOVEREIGNTY! Believe in THE POUND!
Do you really trust politicians who are rampantly pro-EU to just roll over and vote out?? A lib Dem Lord is not going give two hoots for the view of the people and vote to Leave. It simply wont happen.
Then the EU will offer a "massive" concession on free movement and its all back on the EU bus.
I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.
Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...
FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.
Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.
Why would the Tory party collapse?
I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.
Presumably Farage would be keen on a second referendum if there is a a close Leave win.
Undoubtedly.
It's very hard to predict what would happen if there is a close Leave win on a low turnout. However I very much doubt the current Parliament would pass legislation to leave in such circumstances. About 75% of MPs oppose leaving and for many - perhaps most - it is an issue of principle which transcends all other considerations. A prolonged period of uncertainty would ensue, and the Tory party would be consumed by internal dissension as activists tried to deselect Remainers or force them into line.
The vote is the vote. If Leave wins then we leave. Any Tory MP who thinks his own view trumps that of a referendum will quickly find himself deselected. It's unfathomable that Leave wins a vote of the people and the politicians conspire to ensure we remain.
Furthermore, I can't see the SNP even voting (assuming Scotland voted to Remain, they'd be licking their lips and looking forward to demanding another referendum),
They might vote if they were confident it were to be a futile valiant gesture....
''On ISIS one would have thought the opposite is true, they would surely support Remain so that ISIS fighters would still have easy access to the UK. ''
It would be hilarious if some ISIS spokesman actually came out and said that.
ISIS, like the EU, believe in a single, supranational bureaucracy!
Do you really trust politicians who are rampantly pro-EU to just roll over and vote out?? A lib Dem Lord is not going give two hoots for the view of the people and vote to Leave. It simply wont happen.
Then the EU will offer a "massive" concession on free movement and its all back on the EU bus.
Politicians care about one thing: getting re-elected.
In what way do you think ignoring the will of the people increases their chance of re-election?
I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.
It's the Queen's speech tomorrow
Leave could do a poster with an EU bureaucrat sitting in the Queen's place perhaps.
I find it amusing that you have no idea of the irony inherent in the phrase 'scientific consensus'.
It's an accurate description. The overwhelming body of serious opinion agrees on the core facts, matching the dictionary definition of consensus: "a generally accepted opinion or decision among a group of people". While not unanimous, it's as unanimous as you are going to get. Man made climate change is as much a scientific consensus as competitive evolution of species, for example. Beyond the generally agreed core facts there is a lot of scope for different theories, opinions and general sceptism, however.
In this instance, I'm not actually disputing the existence of a concensus (that's another argument entirely), I'm just baffled by the trumpeting of one in a field such as science as being something beneficial. It's like Gallileo never happened. Very kind of you to allow scientists to investigate ALL THE DIFFERENT WAYS humans are responsible for global warming though. Any colour of Ford as long as etc.
I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.
Will have a think..
That kind of thing is very tricky to do. If you're not very careful, you end up with something as cringeworthy as this:
Why all this talk of Parliament in the event a Leave vote?
If Cameron triggers Article 50, for which he doesn't need a vote, that's it.
This is one bit I have no idea about. I have assumed that Cameron will invoke article 50 almost immediately and I am clear about the EU side of the process from then on. But what is the UK constitutional part of the process? Can Parliament or the Lords block it? This is more of a general interest question rather than a specific question on whether they would have the will to do so.
A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.
Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"
#Vote Leave
Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.
I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.
Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.
What might your ideas be, for either side?
I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)
The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.
I'd have a customs officer sitting on the floor looking dejected and dishevelled beside a broken-down door through which a solid line of people of all types (but to hedge, white men, women & children, all prosperous - a la Labour isn't working) are trooping.
I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.
Will have a think..
That kind of thing is very tricky to do. If you're not very careful, you end up with something as cringeworthy as this:
I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.
Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...
FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.
Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.
Why would the Tory party collapse?
I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.
Presumably Farage would be keen on a second referendum if there is a a close Leave win.
Undoubtedly.
It's very hard to predict what would happen if there is a close Leave win on a low turnout. However I very much doubt the current Parliament would pass legislation to leave in such circumstances. About 75% of MPs oppose leaving and for many - perhaps most - it is an issue of principle which transcends all other considerations. A prolonged period of uncertainty would ensue, and the Tory party would be consumed by internal dissension as activists tried to deselect Remainers or force them into line.
MPs would be committed by the referendum to vote Britain out of the EU, .
Not necessarily - Parliament is sovereign - the referendum is advisory and MPs are perfectly entitled to reject its advice. They might not do their future careers much good if they do, but, as I said before, Europe is fundamental to many MPs - they might well be prepared to risk their careers for it.
Can you imagine Ken Clarke of Nick Soames (or even George Osborne) meekly voting to leave, whatever the referendum might say?
A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.
Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"
#Vote Leave
Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.
I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.
Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.
What might your ideas be, for either side?
I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)
The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.
Thanks interesting.
I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.
As a question, not entirely innocent, how close does the brains trust think is the correlation between turnout and result in the referendum? ie can Remain win on a turnout of 55%? Can Leave win on a turnout of 65%?
Ydoethur said 'The point is that whatever turns up, it is most unlikely to benefit a Labour Party led by Corbyn. The national vote share they received last week was, if not risible, certainly underwhelming, and with a divided and incompetent government in the throes of a major policy disagreement, any halfway competent opposition would be streaking ahead in the polls. Even Michael Foot did better than Corbyn is doing on these counts, and he went on to lose the small matter of one in four of Labour's voters and all but three of their seats in the south of England' Corbyn actually performed better this month in relation to the Tories than Milliband did at the equivalent point in the electoral cycle in 2011. Milliband lagged the Tories by 1% in terms of NEV whilst Corbyn managed a small lead of the same margin. As for Michael Foot, he had not yet even become the Labour leader at the same stage of the 1979 Parliament!
Galileo was different. He was a scientist challenging a religious concens... Oh, wait, never mind.
Indeed!
(And yes I do recognise I'm being deeply hypocritical by slagging of Scott_P's 'Oh wait, never mind' style posts and then endorsing one I agree with - oh well)
I find it amusing that you have no idea of the irony inherent in the phrase 'scientific consensus'.
It's an accurate description. The overwhelming body of serious opinion agrees on the core facts, matching the dictionary definition of consensus: "a generally accepted opinion or decision among a group of people". While not unanimous, it's as unanimous as you are going to get. Man made climate change is as much a scientific consensus as competitive evolution of species, for example. Beyond the generally agreed core facts there is a lot of scope for different theories, opinions and general sceptism, however.
In this instance, I'm not actually disputing the existence of a concensus (that's another argument entirely), I'm just baffled by the trumpeting of one in a field such as science as being something beneficial. It's like Gallileo never happened. Very kind of you to allow scientists to investigate ALL THE DIFFERENT WAYS humans are responsible for global warming though. Any colour of Ford as long as etc.
You have to agree on certain core principles otherwise you end up with noise. The difference between man made climate climate change and competitive evolution of species (as examples) is that the first is politically charged. Everyone accepts the second and does their research using those assumptions. Building on assumptions moves the science forward.
As a question, not entirely innocent, how close does the brains trust think is the correlation between turnout and result in the referendum? ie can Remain win on a turnout of 55%? Can Leave win on a turnout of 65%?
A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.
Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"
#Vote Leave
Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.
I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.
Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.
What might your ideas be, for either side?
I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)
The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.
I'd have a customs officer sitting on the floor looking dejected and dishevelled beside a broken-down door through which a solid line of people of all types (but to hedge, white men, women & children, all prosperous - a la Labour isn't working) are trooping.
Why all this talk of Parliament in the event a Leave vote?
If Cameron triggers Article 50, for which he doesn't need a vote, that's it.
This is one bit I have no idea about. I have assumed that Cameron will invoke article 50 almost immediately and I am clear about the EU side of the process from then on. But what is the UK constitutional part of the process? Can Parliament or the Lords block it? This is more of a general interest question rather than a specific question on whether they would have the will to do so.
There is no question that they could, if they wanted to.
It's also obvious that this possibility is being given serious consideration. Which speaks volumes.
I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.
Will have a think..
That kind of thing is very tricky to do. If you're not very careful, you end up with something as cringeworthy as this:
A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.
Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"
#Vote Leave
Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.
I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.
Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.
What might your ideas be, for either side?
I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)
The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.
Thanks interesting.
I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.
Will have a think..
Dad's Army opening credits?
Who do you think you are kidding Mrs Merkel If you think we're on the run? We are the boys who will stop your little game! We are the boys who will make you think again!
Why all this talk of Parliament in the event a Leave vote?
If Cameron triggers Article 50, for which he doesn't need a vote, that's it.
This is one bit I have no idea about. I have assumed that Cameron will invoke article 50 almost immediately and I am clear about the EU side of the process from then on. But what is the UK constitutional part of the process? Can Parliament or the Lords block it? This is more of a general interest question rather than a specific question on whether they would have the will to do so.
Invoking Article 50 itself does not require a parliamentary vote, but that the (inevitable and ultimate) repeal of the European Communities Act does.
If Cameron did not invoke Article 50 within - say - 10 days, does anyone think he would avoid a challenge? And survive a challenge?
A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.
Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"
#Vote Leave
Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.
I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.
Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.
What might your ideas be, for either side?
I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)
The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.
I'd have a customs officer sitting on the floor looking dejected and dishevelled beside a broken-down door through which a solid line of people of all types (but to hedge, white men, women & children, all prosperous - a la Labour isn't working) are trooping.
A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.
Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"
#Vote Leave
Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.
I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.
Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.
What might your ideas be, for either side?
I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)
The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.
Thanks interesting.
I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.
Will have a think..
Dad's Army opening credits?
Yeah, but the Union Flag arrows retreating and pointing to London with 'who do you think you are kidding Mr.Cameron?'
Why all this talk of Parliament in the event a Leave vote?
If Cameron triggers Article 50, for which he doesn't need a vote, that's it.
This is one bit I have no idea about. I have assumed that Cameron will invoke article 50 almost immediately and I am clear about the EU side of the process from then on. But what is the UK constitutional part of the process? Can Parliament or the Lords block it? This is more of a general interest question rather than a specific question on whether they would have the will to do so.
There is no question that they could, if they wanted to.
It's also obvious that this possibility is being given serious consideration. Which speaks volumes.
They cannot block the invocation of Article 50, as that is in the perogative of the Executive. They could, obviously, block the repeal of the European Communities Act, but that would - presumably - not happen for some time.
Your argument stands of course but there doesn't seem to be much logic involved on this topic. Who would have thought we would have seen the antics we have from Cameron and other Tories. Its utterly bonkers and you have to expect their behaviour to become even more unhinged after a defeat.
I find it amusing that you have no idea of the irony inherent in the phrase 'scientific consensus'.
It's an accurate description. The overwhelming body of serious opinion agrees on the core facts, matching the dictionary definition of consensus: "a generally accepted opinion or decision among a group of people". While not unanimous, it's as unanimous as you are going to get. Man made climate change is as much a scientific consensus as competitive evolution of species, for example. Beyond the generally agreed core facts there is a lot of scope for different theories, opinions and general sceptism, however.
In this instance, I'm not actually disputing the existence of a concensus (that's another argument entirely), I'm just baffled by the trumpeting of one in a field such as science as being something beneficial. It's like Gallileo never happened. Very kind of you to allow scientists to investigate ALL THE DIFFERENT WAYS humans are responsible for global warming though. Any colour of Ford as long as etc.
You have to agree on certain core principles otherwise you end up with noise. The difference between man made climate climate change and competitive evolution of species (as examples) is that the first is politically charged. Everyone accepts the second and does their research using those assumptions. Building on assumptions moves the science forward.
No you don't. Science is there to observe and record, in a dispassionate manner. You can start with a hypothesis, but you have to be prepared to have that challenged and overturned if that's what the results show. Your attitude is the sort of thing that ends up fiddling the data when it shows 'not enough warming'.
As a question, not entirely innocent, how close does the brains trust think is the correlation between turnout and result in the referendum? ie can Remain win on a turnout of 55%? Can Leave win on a turnout of 65%?
Why all this talk of Parliament in the event a Leave vote?
If Cameron triggers Article 50, for which he doesn't need a vote, that's it.
This is one bit I have no idea about. I have assumed that Cameron will invoke article 50 almost immediately and I am clear about the EU side of the process from then on. But what is the UK constitutional part of the process? Can Parliament or the Lords block it? This is more of a general interest question rather than a specific question on whether they would have the will to do so.
Invoking Article 50 itself does not require a parliamentary vote, but that the (inevitable and ultimate) repeal of the European Communities Act does.
If Cameron did not invoke Article 50 within - say - 10 days, does anyone think he would avoid a challenge? And survive a challenge?
If there is a leave vote Cameron will be gone by Friday evening. He will not be the one who has to invoke article 50.
I find it amusing that you have no idea of the irony inherent in the phrase 'scientific consensus'.
It's an accurate description. The overwhelming body of serious opinion agrees on the core facts, matching the dictionary definition of consensus: "a generally accepted opinion or decision among a group of people". While not unanimous, it's as unanimous as you are going to get. Man made climate change is as much a scientific consensus as competitive evolution of species, for example. Beyond the generally agreed core facts there is a lot of scope for different theories, opinions and general sceptism, however.
In this instance, I'm not actually disputing the existence of a concensus (that's another argument entirely), I'm just baffled by the trumpeting of one in a field such as science as being something beneficial. It's like Gallileo never happened. Very kind of you to allow scientists to investigate ALL THE DIFFERENT WAYS humans are responsible for global warming though. Any colour of Ford as long as etc.
You have to agree on certain core principles otherwise you end up with noise. The difference between man made climate climate change and competitive evolution of species (as examples) is that the first is politically charged. Everyone accepts the second and does their research using those assumptions. Building on assumptions moves the science forward.
No. The difference is that the theory of evolution was based upon long term observation backed up by experimentation whilst the AGW hypothesis is based on models. Models are not the equivalent of experimentation.
A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.
Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"
#Vote Leave
Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.
I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.
Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.
What might your ideas be, for either side?
I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)
The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.
Thanks interesting.
I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.
Will have a think..
I think we should have a poster of Cameron, Osborne, Mandelson, Juncker, with horns and fangs, and wearing Nazi armbands.
All this talk of a second referendum is vapid bilge.
Leave contend that a vote to Remain is a vote for absorbtion into a European superstate against our will. A second referendum as a possibility argues against this in that if things changed to a position that we dislike then we could always leave at a later stage.
Also on this thread I can see why politicians are keen on employing decent ad agencies at great expense. Ideas from political fanatics rarely convert the middle ground, indeed many are repelled by their ludicrousness. Roger is safe in his job for the forseable!
A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.
Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"
#Vote Leave
Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.
I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.
Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.
What might your ideas be, for either side?
I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)
The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.
Thanks interesting.
I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.
A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.
Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"
#Vote Leave
Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.
I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.
Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.
What might your ideas be, for either side?
I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)
The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.
Thanks interesting.
I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.
Will have a think..
Dad's Army opening credits?
Who do you think you are kidding Mrs Merkel If you think we're on the run? We are the boys who will stop your little game! We are the boys who will make you think again!
I must say the standard of poetry in recent days has unexpectedly lightened what was becoming an acrid debate.
Invoking Article 50 itself does not require a parliamentary vote, but that the (inevitable and ultimate) repeal of the European Communities Act does.
If Cameron did not invoke Article 50 within - say - 10 days, does anyone think he would avoid a challenge? And survive a challenge?
You are right that there is not a snowflake's chance in hell of the Conservative government not accepting the result of the referendum. The party has been split for years, has agreed to disagree, and has ended up with everyone accepting that the only way to resolve the issue is through the referendum. Whichever side they are on, pretty much everyone is going to accept the result - as you rightly point out, it would be electoral suicide not to to do so (not to mention impossible within the party itself). For that matter, I think MPs from other parties would mostly agree.
Whether Article 50 would be invoked as quickly as you suggest is less clear to me. I don't think there would be a long delay (because apart from anything else, we'd need to get this over with before bumping up against the next election). On the other hand, there's a strong argument for allowing a bit of time for preliminary discussions with our EU friends, and for discussions within the government, party and country at large as to what sort of deal we should be seeking. The two-year deadline is already tight.
A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.
Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"
#Vote Leave
Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.
I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.
Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.
What might your ideas be, for either side?
I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)
The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.
Thanks interesting.
I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.
Will have a think..
I think we should have a poster of Cameron, Osborne, Mandelson, Juncker, with horns and fangs, and wearing Nazi armbands.
Do you really trust politicians who are rampantly pro-EU to just roll over and vote out?? A lib Dem Lord is not going give two hoots for the view of the people and vote to Leave. It simply wont happen.
Then the EU will offer a "massive" concession on free movement and its all back on the EU bus.
Politicians care about one thing: getting re-elected.
In what way do you think ignoring the will of the people increases their chance of re-election?
Lords don't need to be re-elected.
But I think Cameron might threaten to flood the Lords if they tried that. It would be a way to regain some credibility
A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.
Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"
#Vote Leave
Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.
I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.
Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.
What might your ideas be, for either side?
I posted a couple upthread (1.05pm)
The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.
Thanks interesting.
I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.
Will have a think..
I think we should have a poster of Cameron, Osborne, Mandelson, Juncker, with horns and fangs, and wearing Nazi armbands.
The trouble with the assorted: -EU is crap -EU is bureaucratic -EU has our politicians by the short and curlies and even -EU is costly poster ideas is IMO that people already think these things. Even most convinced Remainers think these things. So there seems little point in posters to further convince people. The aim needs to be to turn these notions into the act of voting (or not voting for your opponent). How do these things affect me? How will they affect me in the future?
Do you really trust politicians who are rampantly pro-EU to just roll over and vote out?? A lib Dem Lord is not going give two hoots for the view of the people and vote to Leave. It simply wont happen.
Then the EU will offer a "massive" concession on free movement and its all back on the EU bus.
Politicians care about one thing: getting re-elected.
In what way do you think ignoring the will of the people increases their chance of re-election?
Lords don't need to be re-elected.
But I think Cameron might threaten to flood the Lords if they tried that. It would be a way to regain some credibility
I find it amusing that you have no idea of the irony inherent in the phrase 'scientific consensus'.
It's an accurate description. The overwhelming body of serious opinion agrees on the core facts, matching the dictionary definition of consensus: "a generally accepted opinion or decision among a group of people". While not unanimous, it's as unanimous as you are going to get. Man made climate change is as much a scientific consensus as competitive evolution of species, for example. Beyond the generally agreed core facts there is a lot of scope for different theories, opinions and general sceptism, however.
In this instance, I'm not actually disputing the existence of a concensus (that's another argument entirely), I'm just baffled by the trumpeting of one in a field such as science as being something beneficial. It's like Gallileo never happened. Very kind of you to allow scientists to investigate ALL THE DIFFERENT WAYS humans are responsible for global warming though. Any colour of Ford as long as etc.
You have to agree on certain core principles otherwise you end up with noise. The difference between man made climate climate change and competitive evolution of species (as examples) is that the first is politically charged. Everyone accepts the second and does their research using those assumptions. Building on assumptions moves the science forward.
No. The difference is that the theory of evolution was based upon long term observation backed up by experimentation whilst the AGW hypothesis is based on models. Models are not the equivalent of experimentation.
This is something I try to explain to people re. economics as well.
Invoking Article 50 itself does not require a parliamentary vote, but that the (inevitable and ultimate) repeal of the European Communities Act does.
If Cameron did not invoke Article 50 within - say - 10 days, does anyone think he would avoid a challenge? And survive a challenge?
You are right that there is not a snowflake's chance in hell of the Conservative government not accepting the result of the referendum. The party has been split for years, has agreed to disagree, and has ended up with everyone accepting that the only way to resolve the issue is through the referendum. Whichever side they are on, pretty much everyone is going to accept the result - as you rightly point out, it would be electoral suicide not to to do so (not to mention impossible within the party itself). For that matter, I think MPs from other parties would mostly agree.
Whether Article 50 would be invoked as quickly as you suggest is less clear to me. I don't think there would be a long delay (because apart from anything else, we'd need to get this over with before bumping up against the next election). On the other hand, there's a strong argument for allowing a bit of time for preliminary discussions with out EU friends, and for discussions with the government, party and country at large as to what sort of deal we should be seeking. The two-year deadline is already tight.
Yep.
Discussions with countries outside the EU that we need trade agreements with, then preliminary ones with EU itself, then invoke Article 50 at least two years before General Election due.
there's a strong argument for allowing a bit of time for preliminary discussions with our EU friends, and for discussions within the government, party and country at large as to what sort of deal we should be seeking. The two-year deadline is already tight.
The "official" line is talks can't start until Article 50 is triggered
Comments
That's the trouble with cheating - it invalidates your victory.
It's even more ridiculous when applied to economics - as it has been by the REMAINIACS recently - where you cannot experimentally prove anything.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11547853/Election-2015-Nicola-Sturgeon-is-Ed-Milibands-puppet-master-in-new-Conservative-campaign-poster.html
In Kohl's day Germany was divided with a quarter under hostile military occupation.
Once the Berlin Wall came down, then we were talking dominant power in Europe.
Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1ILPl5FQaM
I imagine that UKIP would make big gains in 2020.
The key is to focus in on the doubts which floaters already have. For the Leave side, that's probably bureaucracy and immigration. For the Remain side, the economy, economy and economy.
7 years after the wall came down.
Who doesn't half post some nonsense on here?
http://www.thenational.scot/news/kenny-macaskill-reported-to-police-over-claims-about-lockerbie-bombing-trial.17646
"MacAskill wrote that he and former First Minister Alex Salmond sought new powers for Holyrood in exchange for accepting a prisoner transfer agreement."
All in all, I cannot see any (likely) circumstances where the will of the people would be ignored.
Or Chicken Licken, with the EU as Foxy Loxy......
I think Leave could do a positive poster capturing the concept of sovereignty and an optimistic future for the UK, but I'm not quite sure how to visualise it.
Will have a think..
If Cameron triggers Article 50, for which he doesn't need a vote, that's it.
Believe in DEMOCRACY!
Believe in SOVEREIGNTY!
Believe in THE POUND!
But most importantly of all:
Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
Do you really trust politicians who are rampantly pro-EU to just roll over and vote out?? A lib Dem Lord is not going give two hoots for the view of the people and vote to Leave. It simply wont happen.
Then the EU will offer a "massive" concession on free movement and its all back on the EU bus.
In what way do you think ignoring the will of the people increases their chance of re-election?
Leave could do a poster with an EU bureaucrat sitting in the Queen's place perhaps.
https://static-secure.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/About/General/2010/4/12/1271071125920/Cover-of-the-Labour-Manif-007.jpg
OK the leaders will say they respect the will of the people etc etc but they will find a way to cloud the subject.
I hope you are correct but I have just don't have your confidence in politicians.
I think it has to come from the British Government i.e. the Cabinet, and that has a Remain majority.
Can you imagine Ken Clarke of Nick Soames (or even George Osborne) meekly voting to leave, whatever the referendum might say?
(a) increase the chance of politicians getting re-elected / re-selected
or
(b) diminish it
'The point is that whatever turns up, it is most unlikely to benefit a Labour Party led by Corbyn. The national vote share they received last week was, if not risible, certainly underwhelming, and with a divided and incompetent government in the throes of a major policy disagreement, any halfway competent opposition would be streaking ahead in the polls. Even Michael Foot did better than Corbyn is doing on these counts, and he went on to lose the small matter of one in four of Labour's voters and all but three of their seats in the south of England'
Corbyn actually performed better this month in relation to the Tories than Milliband did at the equivalent point in the electoral cycle in 2011. Milliband lagged the Tories by 1% in terms of NEV whilst Corbyn managed a small lead of the same margin. As for Michael Foot, he had not yet even become the Labour leader at the same stage of the 1979 Parliament!
(And yes I do recognise I'm being deeply hypocritical by slagging of Scott_P's 'Oh wait, never mind' style posts and then endorsing one I agree with - oh well)
I voted in that election. Never even noticed that poster.
It's also obvious that this possibility is being given serious consideration. Which speaks volumes.
If you think we're on the run?
We are the boys who will stop your little game!
We are the boys who will make you think again!
If Cameron did not invoke Article 50 within - say - 10 days, does anyone think he would avoid a challenge? And survive a challenge?
Are they going to physically restrain Cameron?
Maybe that's a Leave.EU vid.
Your argument stands of course but there doesn't seem to be much logic involved on this topic. Who would have thought we would have seen the antics we have from Cameron and other Tories. Its utterly bonkers and you have to expect their behaviour to become even more unhinged after a defeat.
And as for the Lords.........
Or have we moved to Presidential Government instead of Cabinet Government?
Leave contend that a vote to Remain is a vote for absorbtion into a European superstate against our will. A second referendum as a possibility argues against this in that if things changed to a position that we dislike then we could always leave at a later stage.
Also on this thread I can see why politicians are keen on employing decent ad agencies at great expense. Ideas from political fanatics rarely convert the middle ground, indeed many are repelled by their ludicrousness. Roger is safe in his job for the forseable!
Well done, all.
PS. Has Richard Nablavi treated us to an EU rap?
Whether Article 50 would be invoked as quickly as you suggest is less clear to me. I don't think there would be a long delay (because apart from anything else, we'd need to get this over with before bumping up against the next election). On the other hand, there's a strong argument for allowing a bit of time for preliminary discussions with our EU friends, and for discussions within the government, party and country at large as to what sort of deal we should be seeking. The two-year deadline is already tight.
George Osborne @George_Osborne 1h1 hour ago
Delighted taxpayers will receive over £130m in @AskLloydsBank dividends today. Takes total we’ve recovered from bank to more than £16.8bn
I was all set to buy those with the Gov't proposed offer !
But I think Cameron might threaten to flood the Lords if they tried that. It would be a way to regain some credibility
https://twitter.com/generalboles/status/710572381518086144
-EU is crap
-EU is bureaucratic
-EU has our politicians by the short and curlies
and even
-EU is costly
poster ideas is IMO that people already think these things. Even most convinced Remainers think these things. So there seems little point in posters to further convince people. The aim needs to be to turn these notions into the act of voting (or not voting for your opponent). How do these things affect me? How will they affect me in the future?
You can design models to show almost anything.
Discussions with countries outside the EU that we need trade agreements with, then preliminary ones with EU itself, then invoke Article 50 at least two years before General Election due.