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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the EURef poster campaigns are about to start Roger evaluates their effectiveness

Ernest Hemingway believed the best thing he ever wrote was a six word advert “For sale. Baby shoes. Never worn”. You can understand why a novelist might be happy with such an effective use of six words. If he’d spent his time in advertising he might have honed his technique further and managed something equally effective but using only three. “Beanz Meanz Heinz”.

Read the full story here

taffys

''On ISIS one would have thought the opposite is true, they would surely support Remain so that ISIS fighters would still have easy access to the UK. ''

It would be hilarious if some ISIS spokesman actually came out and said that.

TheScreamingEagles

Another excellent piece Roger

TheWhiteRabbit

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another excellent piece Roger

A good read and I think a new area of strength for PB.

TheScreamingEagles

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another excellent piece Roger

A good read and I think a new area of strength for PB.

It is, take the ISIS back Brexit quote from Dave, is it any less confrontational than saying Ed Miliband would stab the country in the back just like he did his brother?

Casino_Royale

Excellent piece Roger.

This might be a travesty, but do advertisers have an edge in political campaigns anymore in a world where anyone can make a meme on photoshop which has the potential to go viral on social media?

I'm not sure how much more a physical poster besides an A-road has anymore, even if covered well on TV.

PClipp

Are the advertisers talking just to Conservative voters, or are they talking to the general public?

The more the two campaigns address themselves to Tories, the more they alienate everybody else, or don`t they?

TheScreamingEagles

If Leave were smart, they'd do a poster of Dave in Angela Merkel's pocket a la Miliband in Salmond's pocket.

Which I maintain is the most effective political poster in the last 35 years

TonyE

How sure are we that there are really undecideds in anything like the numbers the polling suggests? And amongst the undecideds, how many are really likely to vote?

Polling suggests that Remain have it fairly easily unless a good chunk of the undecideds vote Leave - but if you're not decided by now then it's unlikely that you'll vote for anything that might materially change the situation.

Betting markets are stubbornly holding their position too.

That should surely change the tenor of the Remain campaign a bit, reduce the heat. The scare story tactic has not been a great success and is surely alienating Tory voters, who might just not even bother in 2020.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent piece Roger.

This might be a travesty, but do advertisers have an edge in political campaigns anymore in a world where anyone can make a meme on photoshop which has the potential to go viral on social media?

I'm not sure how much more a physical poster besides an A-road has anymore, even if covered well on TV.

In Manchester, they stuck up the posters next to the main train station, so thousands of commuters so them on a daily basis

MaxPB

TheScreamingEagles said:

If Leave were smart, they'd do a poster of Dave in Angela Merkel's pocket a la Miliband in Salmond's pocket.

Which I maintain is the most effective political poster in the last 35 years

Yes, I think that would effective. I also think the four horsemen poster would be effective with Dave, George, Angela and Hollande.

CarlottaVance

Excellent thread Roger. Often forgotten now, but the 'Labour Isn't Working poster' was also accompanied by a cinema ad (which I've tried, but failed, to find on YouTube) 'Is this the queue for the 50p stalls?'

A young couple walk up to successive queues asking 'Is this the queue for the 50p stalls'?

No, this is the queue for the Unemployed
No, this is the queue for hip operations.....and so forth

They finally find the correct queue (50p? You've got to be joking mate, with inflation its now £1..) and there's a rather feeble joke about Labour not being the Marx Brothers, but some other comedians.....

Not bad recall 37 years on.....

The main point is find your opponents weakness and poke fun at them.....mercilessly.....

MaxPB

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent piece Roger.

This might be a travesty, but do advertisers have an edge in political campaigns anymore in a world where anyone can make a meme on photoshop which has the potential to go viral on social media?

I'm not sure how much more a physical poster besides an A-road has anymore, even if covered well on TV.

They have to spread on social media, facebook, twitter etc...

It's literally free advertising if it goes viral. Didn't some agency calculate that Trump got $1.7bn worth of free advertising because he got so much coverage from the media every time he had an outburst.

williamglenn

This poster from the Australian referendum on becoming a republic was very effective:

http://www.nma.gov.au/__data/assets/image/0015/225402/No-republic-poster_w480.jpg

Sandpit

Very good article, good to hear from someone on the inside of advertising.

runnymede

SeanT said:

It's come to something when our best chance of balance, neutrality, enlightenment and insight, in a PB Euroref threader, comes courtesy of Roger. A striking contrast with the other REMAINIAC banshees.

Nice piece, Roger. Love the Hemingway reference.

And now I'm off to walk the cliffs from St Leven to Nanjizel, in the Cornish sun. Third lovely sunny day in a row. Proper job, my 'andsome.

Yes - the contrast between Roger's stuff and the stuff from the others is really striking.

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

If Leave were smart, they'd do a poster of Dave in Angela Merkel's pocket a la Miliband in Salmond's pocket.

Which I maintain is the most effective political poster in the last 35 years

It wouldn't work in the same way because it would lack the tail wagging the dog element of Miliband and Salmond. Everyone knows that Merkel is powerful because she leads the biggest country in the EU.

Pulpstar

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

If Leave were smart, they'd do a poster of Dave in Angela Merkel's pocket a la Miliband in Salmond's pocket.

Which I maintain is the most effective political poster in the last 35 years

Agree completely. The most effective adverts are those that say directly what we were already thinking in the back of our heads. When Salmond said to his Scottish audience that he would write Labour's Queen's Speech, that was the day that Dave had his majority in the bag.

Luckyguy1983

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent piece Roger.

This might be a travesty, but do advertisers have an edge in political campaigns anymore in a world where anyone can make a meme on photoshop which has the potential to go viral on social media?

I'm not sure how much more a physical poster besides an A-road has anymore, even if covered well on TV.

They have to spread on social media, facebook, twitter etc...

It's literally free advertising if it goes viral. Didn't some agency calculate that Trump got $1.7bn worth of free advertising because he got so much coverage from the media every time he had an outburst.

No, he got PR coverage. Not really the same as advertising (much more valuable in fact).

Another very good thread btw.

TonyE

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If Leave were smart, they'd do a poster of Dave in Angela Merkel's pocket a la Miliband in Salmond's pocket.

Which I maintain is the most effective political poster in the last 35 years

It wouldn't work in the same way because it would lack the tail wagging the dog element of Miliband and Salmond. Everyone knows that Merkel is powerful because she leads the biggest country in the EU.

Maybe if they accompanied with something about the 'deal' Cameron claims he has it might have some effect.

Cameron as Junker's Glove puppet (because let's face it, it would be accurate) might have some traction.

Pulpstar

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

I'm guessing the 22 will step in to do the job should he show no signs of going, mind.

AlastairMeeks

For as long as Michael Gove is a key decision-maker in the Leave camp, we won't see Leave majoring on posters attacking the current Conservative leadership.

1) He deeply cares what they think.
2) He is personally extremely polite about opponents anyway.

CarlottaVance

A Guardian review of Politial posters down the years:

http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2015/apr/03/the-10-best-british-political-posters

TonyE

AlastairMeeks said:

For as long as Michael Gove is a key decision-maker in the Leave camp, we won't see Leave majoring on posters attacking the current Conservative leadership.

1) He deeply cares what they think.
2) He is personally extremely polite about opponents anyway.

If he were a key decision maker, Gove and Hannan would be running on a Single Market ticket. Cummings is the boss there, Elliot the money man. Neither of them have a bloody clue, as the Select committee ably exposed.

Polruan

SeanT said:

It's come to something when our best chance of balance, neutrality, enlightenment and insight, in a PB Euroref threader, comes courtesy of Roger. A striking contrast with the other REMAINIAC banshees.

Nice piece, Roger. Love the Hemingway reference.

And now I'm off to walk the cliffs from St Leven to Nanjizel, in the Cornish sun. Third lovely sunny day in a row. Proper job, my 'andsome.

Enjoy it - the sand at Nanjizal finally started to come back in this spring after the 2014 storms. If you're lucky you might even see the legendary bowhead whale of west Penwith.

Richard_Nabavi

williamglenn said:

It wouldn't work in the same way because it would lack the tail wagging the dog element of Miliband and Salmond. Everyone knows that Merkel is powerful because she leads the biggest country in the EU.

Quite so, and even more important it's the kind of argument which appeals only to the converted, along with anything referring to an 'EU Superstate' or other scare stories of the committed Leavers.

My suggestion for Leave would be something like a picture of a plumber entangled in red tape with a big pair of scissors inviting voters to 'Cut the knot'. Keep it down-to-earth and rooted in the actual experience (or perceived experience) of voters.

For Remain, they should obviously concentrate on the risk to jobs and prosperity. It shouldn't be hard for an ad agency to come up with some image encapsulating that.

MaxPB

To echo everyone else, a really good thread. Really begun looking forwards to Roger's threads now!

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If Leave were smart, they'd do a poster of Dave in Angela Merkel's pocket a la Miliband in Salmond's pocket.

Which I maintain is the most effective political poster in the last 35 years

It wouldn't work in the same way because it would lack the tail wagging the dog element of Miliband and Salmond. Everyone knows that Merkel is powerful because she leads the biggest country in the EU.

It would be better done like the two David's from spitting image. Cameron as Diddy David Steel.

Plato_Says

taffys said:

''On ISIS one would have thought the opposite is true, they would surely support Remain so that ISIS fighters would still have easy access to the UK. ''

It would be hilarious if some ISIS spokesman actually came out and said that.

I'm just too appalled for words. I really am. I want Cameron gone.

CarlottaVance

The 'German Puppet' has been done before:

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01614/1997-europe_1614440i.jpg

Pulpstar

AlastairMeeks said:

For as long as Michael Gove is a key decision-maker in the Leave camp, we won't see Leave majoring on posters attacking the current Conservative leadership.

1) He deeply cares what they think.
2) He is personally extremely polite about opponents anyway.

The pleasent Gove.

Stark_Dawning

Looks like Dave was on to something with his ISIS remark.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/662231/Out-supporters-ISIS-want-to-attack-UK-to-force-BREXIT-which-will-destroy-the-Union

Plato_Says

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent piece Roger.

This might be a travesty, but do advertisers have an edge in political campaigns anymore in a world where anyone can make a meme on photoshop which has the potential to go viral on social media?

I'm not sure how much more a physical poster besides an A-road has anymore, even if covered well on TV.

They have to spread on social media, facebook, twitter etc...

It's literally free advertising if it goes viral. Didn't some agency calculate that Trump got $1.7bn worth of free advertising because he got so much coverage from the media every time he had an outburst.

Yup, and IIRC that was by March. Boris saying Knickers gained more than Ozzy's flat joke about moon landings. He really can't do humour for public consumption.

JackW

National - Survey Monkey/NBC

Clinton 48 .. Trump 45
Sanders 53 .. Trump 41

Clinton 54 .. Sanders 40

Sample 14,100

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/poll-trump-hillary-clinton-2016-223253

https://www.scribd.com/doc/312804612/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Toplines-and-Methodology-5-9-5-15?secret_password=agyWh3Vh62bCRN4ztTac

Sandpit

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent piece Roger.

This might be a travesty, but do advertisers have an edge in political campaigns anymore in a world where anyone can make a meme on photoshop which has the potential to go viral on social media?

I'm not sure how much more a physical poster besides an A-road has anymore, even if covered well on TV.

They have to spread on social media, facebook, twitter etc...

It's literally free advertising if it goes viral. Didn't some agency calculate that Trump got $1.7bn worth of free advertising because he got so much coverage from the media every time he had an outburst.

Trump has completely played the media at their own game. He knows that you don't need to spend money on ads if the programmes between the ads are talking about you non-stop for nine months! The next few months could be interesting as the Republicans row in behind him, all they know is the traditional politics of paid-for advertising whereas Trump doesn't care for any of that and can make headlines all day - which allows the money to be spent very effectively if they want it to be.

Casino_Royale

AlastairMeeks said:

For as long as Michael Gove is a key decision-maker in the Leave camp, we won't see Leave majoring on posters attacking the current Conservative leadership.

1) He deeply cares what they think.
2) He is personally extremely polite about opponents anyway.

Yes but he did accuse Remainers of treating voters like children.

I don't know how effective it'd be but I'd enjoy a poster of the Bayeux Tapestry.

Stark_Dawning

CarlottaVance said:

The 'German Puppet' has been done before:

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01614/1997-europe_1614440i.jpg

Yes, and it backfired utterly. Even Edwina Currie lambasted Major for it (though we can now see that other motives might have been at play).

MaxPB

CarlottaVance said:

The 'German Puppet' has been done before:

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01614/1997-europe_1614440i.jpg

Hardly the same, Blair was massively popular at the time and Helmut Kohl wasn't responsible for the worst immigration policy in recent history.

I would also have Erdogan controlling Merkel, Dave and Hollande being with marionette strings.

Jason

How does anyone know how effective a poster is? I'm intrigued that so many people think opinions and voting intentions are in any way affected by a poster.

TonyE

CarlottaVance said:

The 'German Puppet' has been done before:

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01614/1997-europe_1614440i.jpg

Probably a bit less effective on the basis that hardly anyone knew what Kohl looked like. Merkel on the other hand........

Bitty?

JackW

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

I agree ....

More like totally and completely buggered up the next election ....

anothernick

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.

Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.

Richard_Tyndall

Yet again another excellent thread from Roger. Many thanks sir.

Luckyguy1983

Remain should (and should have from the beginning) been portrayed by the Leave camp as a commitment to at least another 50 years in the EU.

So posters could be 'Here's what they did in the last 50 years - what are they going to do in the next?'
Images could be of pushy salesmen wanting contracts written in blood, judges handing down life sentences, reluctant brides entering into the matrimonial state 'till death do us part' with unattractive partners, blank cheques (as in don't give them a..) etc.

The more outrageous the better.

TonyE

JackW said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

I agree ....

More like totally and completely buggered up the next election ....

Don't know who might win, but I'd bet the turnout is going to very low, maybe the lowest ever. Corbyn v Osborne for example, would have the punters staying at home in droves.

Plato_Says

Luckyguy1983 said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent piece Roger.

This might be a travesty, but do advertisers have an edge in political campaigns anymore in a world where anyone can make a meme on photoshop which has the potential to go viral on social media?

I'm not sure how much more a physical poster besides an A-road has anymore, even if covered well on TV.

They have to spread on social media, facebook, twitter etc...

It's literally free advertising if it goes viral. Didn't some agency calculate that Trump got $1.7bn worth of free advertising because he got so much coverage from the media every time he had an outburst.

No, he got PR coverage. Not really the same as advertising (much more valuable in fact).

Another very good thread btw.

Never been keen on EAV [equivalent advertising value] myself - PR isn't advertising for obvious reasons. It's a handy shorthand for PR people to justify their efforts comparing apples and pears vs OTL ad spend.

anothernick

anothernick said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.

Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.

I meant 51-49!

JackW

Jason said:

How does anyone know how effective a poster is? I'm intrigued that so many people think opinions and voting intentions are in any way affected by a poster.

Many say @JackW is the most effective poster on PB and likely in any form in the history of political prognostication since the dawn of time.

I couldn't possibly comment ....

Luckyguy1983

Plato_Says said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent piece Roger.

This might be a travesty, but do advertisers have an edge in political campaigns anymore in a world where anyone can make a meme on photoshop which has the potential to go viral on social media?

I'm not sure how much more a physical poster besides an A-road has anymore, even if covered well on TV.

They have to spread on social media, facebook, twitter etc...

It's literally free advertising if it goes viral. Didn't some agency calculate that Trump got $1.7bn worth of free advertising because he got so much coverage from the media every time he had an outburst.

No, he got PR coverage. Not really the same as advertising (much more valuable in fact).

Another very good thread btw.

Never been keen on EAV [equivalent advertising value] myself - PR isn't advertising for obvious reasons. It's a handy shorthand for PR people to justify their efforts comparing apples and pears vs OTL ad spend.

Totally agree. Especially silly given advertising value itself is immensly hard to quantify. What it costs isn't, but value is.

FrancisUrquhart

"Putin might be happy, Al Baghdadi might be happy."

Can't be long until we have voldemort, Dr no, hanibal lector, the joker & lec lurther quoted!!!

runnymede

FrancisUrquhart said:

"Putin might be happy, Al Baghdadi might be happy."

Can't be long until we have voldemort, Dr no, hanibal lector, the joker & lec lurther quoted!!!

Has Satan been sounded out yet?

MaxPB

anothernick said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.

Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.

Why would the Tory party collapse?

FrancisUrquhart

runnymede said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

"Putin might be happy, Al Baghdadi might be happy."

Can't be long until we have voldemort, Dr no, hanibal lector, the joker & lec lurther quoted!!!

Has Satan been sounded out yet?

I heard they tried but he wouldn't agree to release the image rights for the poster.

Casino_Royale

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

Luckyguy1983

Jason said:

How does anyone know how effective a poster is? I'm intrigued that so many people think opinions and voting intentions are in any way affected by a poster.

You don't.

JackW

TonyE said:

JackW said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

I agree ....

More like totally and completely buggered up the next election ....

Don't know who might win, but I'd bet the turnout is going to very low, maybe the lowest ever. Corbyn v Osborne for example, would have the punters staying at home in droves.

if you don't know who would win between Ozzie and Jezza then you require urgent attention from the finest physician in the land followed by a crash course in ARSE related theory.

I mean really .... PM Corbyn .... ..

Casino_Royale

Casino_Royale said:

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

PS. With some needle and stitching linking all of the former altogether too

Richard_Nabavi

JackW said:

if you don't know who would win between Ozzie and Jezza then you require urgent attention from the finest physician in the land followed by a crash course in ARSE related theory.

I mean really .... PM Corbyn .... ..

When are you going to come off the fence on the merits of Mr Corbyn, Jack?

Sandpit

Casino_Royale said:

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

Nice one. That and the quote from Philip Green that leaving the EU will raise wages in the UK.

williamglenn

TonyE said:

Maybe if they accompanied with something about the 'deal' Cameron claims he has it might have some effect.

Cameron as Junker's Glove puppet (because let's face it, it would be accurate) might have some traction.

The problem is that attacking Cameron gives people a reason to want to vote him out and elect someone with a backbone, but not to leave the EU.

Perhaps with Euro 2016 coming up there could be a football themed poster. Cameron in goal making a heroic save with the caption, 'He can't stop all of them'. It would be ambiguous whether he was playing on the same team as Europe or not but would work both ways - in one instance their defence is weak and unreliable, in the other they're actively trying to get one past us.

MonikerDiCanio

Thanks, Roger.
I think the advertising industry is near irrelevant in politics. The best, most viral propaganda is now produced by amateurs.

logical_song

Tories might not be the only ones with election expenses problems:
"Indeed, allegations surrounding Labour’s battle bus surfaced just yesterday. This is unlikely to remain a Conservative only issue."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/05/explained-conservative-election-expenses-saga

Stark_Dawning

TonyE said:

CarlottaVance said:

The 'German Puppet' has been done before:

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01614/1997-europe_1614440i.jpg

Probably a bit less effective on the basis that hardly anyone knew what Kohl looked like. Merkel on the other hand........

Bitty?

The problem with doing Dave as Merkel's puppet is that Germany is no longer seen as the supreme power that it was in Kohl's day. These days the British tend to think that the German's have the problems, and they need us more than we need them. Perhaps Dave could been portrayed as the puppet master - spending more time strutting around his European empire and bossing its silly leaders about than concentrating on domestic affairs. That might gain some traction.

Charles

TheScreamingEagles said:

If Leave were smart, they'd do a poster of Dave in Angela Merkel's pocket a la Miliband in Salmond's pocket.

Which I maintain is the most effective political poster in the last 35 years

Which everyone would immediately criticise as being derivative.

TCPoliticalBetting

anothernick said:

anothernick said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.

Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.

I meant 51-49!

You should consider the outcome of the Winchester by election when voters wishes are rejected and they get a chance to vote again.

Plato_Says

logical_song said:

Tories might not be the only ones with election expenses problems:
"Indeed, allegations surrounding Labour’s battle bus surfaced just yesterday. This is unlikely to remain a Conservative only issue."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/05/explained-conservative-election-expenses-saga

Guido's all over LD's battle bus today. Election law needs clarifying - can't see any prosecutions or by-elections myself.

foxinsoxuk

williamglenn said:

This poster from the Australian referendum on becoming a republic was very effective:

http://www.nma.gov.au/__data/assets/image/0015/225402/No-republic-poster_w480.jpg

Except they voted agaist becoming a republic!

JackW

Richard_Nabavi said:

When are you going to come off the fence on the merits of Mr Corbyn, Jack?

When we see Nick PalmerMP posting again ....

williamglenn

foxinsoxuk said:

Except they voted agaist becoming a republic!

Precisely the position advocated by the poster! If Remain could attach some of the same pragmatic patriotism to their case, while painting the other side as fantasists it would work well.

weejonnie

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If Leave were smart, they'd do a poster of Dave in Angela Merkel's pocket a la Miliband in Salmond's pocket.

Which I maintain is the most effective political poster in the last 35 years

Which everyone would immediately criticise as being derivative.

Better to use the one with Merkel pulling Cameron's puppet strings.

Or one showing Cameron stabbing John Bull in the back.

MikeSmithson

Casino_Royale said:

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.

Sandpit

logical_song said:

Tories might not be the only ones with election expenses problems:
"Indeed, allegations surrounding Labour’s battle bus surfaced just yesterday. This is unlikely to remain a Conservative only issue."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/05/explained-conservative-election-expenses-saga

All the parties have had battle busses for years. Guido has loads of reports on Con, Lab and Lib MPs and candidates all having visits from battle busses in 2015 with no local expenditure for transport declared. The result is either going to be a whole raft of prosecutions, or a clarification on what's national and what's local spending in time for the next election. I'd bet on the latter, unless all the parties want to be dragged through the courts.

Edit: Miss @Plato_Says makes the same point in fewer words, because she works in PR and I work in IT.

anothernick

MaxPB said:

anothernick said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.

Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.

Why would the Tory party collapse?

I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.

logical_song

The scientific consensus on Climate Change:
http://theconversation.com/the-things-people-ask-about-the-scientific-consensus-on-climate-change-59243

Luckyguy1983

Casino_Royale said:

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

Yes.

And they're saying ' I hope we can count on your vote?'. Poster in run down Labour areas. Osborne at the front obviously. People in the poster mostly laughing.

Plato_Says

I honestly can't think of a single effective election poster since the 80/90s bar EdM in Salmond's pocket.

There's been some funny and awful ones, but nothing like those of the past.

The epidemic of homemade ones on social media has diluted the whole market. And who can forget Cameron as Gene Hunt.

foxinsoxuk

anothernick said:

MaxPB said:

anothernick said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.

Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.

Why would the Tory party collapse?

I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.

Presumably Farage would be keen on a second referendum if there is a a close Leave win.

Luckyguy1983

foxinsoxuk said:

williamglenn said:

This poster from the Australian referendum on becoming a republic was very effective:

http://www.nma.gov.au/__data/assets/image/0015/225402/No-republic-poster_w480.jpg

Except they voted agaist becoming a republic!

What's that saying? 'The surgery was a success, but the patient died.'

Stark_Dawning

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If Leave were smart, they'd do a poster of Dave in Angela Merkel's pocket a la Miliband in Salmond's pocket.

Which I maintain is the most effective political poster in the last 35 years

Which everyone would immediately criticise as being derivative.

Yes. Plenty attempts have made over the years to spoof opponents' classic ads and turn the tables on them. Never think it really works myself - you just remind everyone how clever and innovative your opponents were to start with.

TonyE

Luckyguy1983 said:

Casino_Royale said:

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

Yes.

And they're saying ' I hope we can count on your vote?'. Poster in run down Labour areas. Osborne at the front obviously. People in the poster mostly laughing.

The key for Leave to bring this close is to make it People v State, where the state represents the benefit of an elite class.

Casino_Royale

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.

I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.

foxinsoxuk

williamglenn said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Except they voted agaist becoming a republic!

Precisely the position advocated by the poster! If Remain could attach some of the same pragmatic patriotism to their case, while painting the other side as fantasists it would work well.

Oops. My mis interpretation.

The best posters are those that are not trying to be too clever.

Actually the history of posters and related stunts is that many backfire. #edstone anyone?

TCPoliticalBetting

Luckyguy1983 said:

Casino_Royale said:

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

Yes.

And they're saying ' I hope we can count on your vote?'. Poster in run down Labour areas. Osborne at the front obviously. People in the poster mostly laughing.

Cameron and Osborne are ideal poster boys for LEAVE. LEAVE are getting a lot of free supportive messages every time this pair appear advocating REMAIN. Bizarre to watch it, but they are in charge of the REMAIN campaign and not Will Straw etc. Although Will Straw and fellow Labour people must be enjoying the damage Cameron and Osborne are doing to the Conservative party.

Sunil_Prasannan

*Sunil whistles innocently*

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/731240757227573248

MaxPB

anothernick said:

MaxPB said:

anothernick said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.

Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.

Why would the Tory party collapse?

I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.

They would accept the will of the people. There would be 30 or so hardcore europhiles who might not accept the will of the people, but tbh, it really depends on the reaction from the EU. If their suggestion is EEA plus one or two token benefits changes then it would probably be enough for the whole party to vote through.

If Parliament decided to ignore any leave vote I would begin putting money on UKIP to come second in the next election, which would come sooner rather than later as the government lose a vote of confidence.

Sandpit

anothernick said:

MaxPB said:

anothernick said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.

Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.

Why would the Tory party collapse?

I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.

I would imagine that Tory MPs refusing to vote in favour of the will of the electorate would be deselected by their local party five minutes later.

Luckyguy1983

TonyE said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Casino_Royale said:

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

Yes.

And they're saying ' I hope we can count on your vote?'. Poster in run down Labour areas. Osborne at the front obviously. People in the poster mostly laughing.

The key for Leave to bring this close is to make it People v State, where the state represents the benefit of an elite class.

It is to a certain demographic.

williamglenn

foxinsoxuk said:

Actually the history of posters and related stunts is that many backfire. #edstone anyone?

Incidentally the stunt below doesn't auger well for Hillary Clinton's ability to avoid similar pitfalls.

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/contribute/donate/official-woman-card/

Luckyguy1983

logical_song said:

The scientific consensus on Climate Change:
http://theconversation.com/the-things-people-ask-about-the-scientific-consensus-on-climate-change-59243

I find it amusing that you have no idea of the irony inherent in the phrase 'scientific consensus'.

CarlottaVance

foxinsoxuk said:

williamglenn said:

This poster from the Australian referendum on becoming a republic was very effective:

http://www.nma.gov.au/__data/assets/image/0015/225402/No-republic-poster_w480.jpg

Except they voted agaist becoming a republic!

So the poster worked!

TCPoliticalBetting

Sandpit said:

anothernick said:

MaxPB said:

anothernick said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.

Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.

Why would the Tory party collapse?

I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.

I would imagine that Tory MPs refusing to vote in favour of the will of the electorate would be deselected by their local party five minutes later.

Correct, at least 90%.

Scott_P

It does look like the Brexiteers know they have lost and are gearing up for the next one...

@GdnPolitics: Boris Johnon: no guarantee vote to remain will settle EU issue for ever https://t.co/ubyi7bWzH4

runnymede

Sandpit said:

anothernick said:

MaxPB said:

anothernick said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.

Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.

Why would the Tory party collapse?

I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.

I would imagine that Tory MPs refusing to vote in favour of the will of the electorate would be deselected by their local party five minutes later.

I see this scenario which my hedge fund clients were throwing around a few weeks ago is now becoming widely discussed i.e. REMAIN trying to block a LEAVE vote in parliament.

We haven't even mentioned the Lords yet, stuffed full of EU placemen (aka Lib Dems).

Plato_Says

Will Cameron trying to bury Serco letter with ISIS work - or will it undermine Remain yet again?

Toms

logical_song said:

The scientific consensus on Climate Change:
http://theconversation.com/the-things-people-ask-about-the-scientific-consensus-on-climate-change-59243

And here's MIT's input, but clearly they're only playing a game to feather their own nest and anyway as they're only boffins we shouldn't take them seriously. Better we turn our environment over to Etonian classicists and the like.

http://news.mit.edu/2015/new-climate-change-strategy-1021

Sandpit

williamglenn said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Actually the history of posters and related stunts is that many backfire. #edstone anyone?

Incidentally the stunt below doesn't auger well for Hillary Clinton's ability to avoid similar pitfalls.

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/contribute/donate/official-woman-card/

Hillary v Trump is not going to be a nice campaign. I'm expecting Trump to go very hard on how she's in the pay of big corporations and pick up a load of Bernie supporters. Have bet accordingly.

Richard_Nabavi

Casino_Royale said:

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

A good poster would be of all the politicians, FTSE supporters, CBI and TUC pointing and laughing at a common script and chinking champagne glasses next to some normal people who look dejected, and defeated.

Caption: "Your future, or theirs?"

#Vote Leave

Or you could the same with Putin & Trump - a far more scary duo of supporters than any you list.

I fully expect Remain to do that, but I don't think it'll be as powerful as you and TSE think it will be.

Neither idea would be effective. Both preach to the converted.

anothernick

foxinsoxuk said:

anothernick said:

MaxPB said:

anothernick said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.

Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.

Why would the Tory party collapse?

I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.

Presumably Farage would be keen on a second referendum if there is a a close Leave win.

Undoubtedly.

It's very hard to predict what would happen if there is a close Leave win on a low turnout. However I very much doubt the current Parliament would pass legislation to leave in such circumstances. About 75% of MPs oppose leaving and for many - perhaps most - it is an issue of principle which transcends all other considerations. A prolonged period of uncertainty would ensue, and the Tory party would be consumed by internal dissension as activists tried to deselect Remainers or force them into line.

Sunil_Prasannan

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/731267847037562880

Stark_Dawning

anothernick said:

MaxPB said:

anothernick said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not altogether convinced Jezza has "lost" the next election.

Dodgy, and now quite obviously going mad Dave could stay on to lose it...

FWIW you can wargame a scenario in which Leave wins by 41-59 on a 50% turnout (meaning 30% of the country has voted for Leave) - it's very unlikely Parliament would pass legislation to leave in those circumstances - the Tory party could collapse entirely leading to a general election in which Labour returned as the largest party.

Not a likely outcome but not completely impossible.

Why would the Tory party collapse?

I'm assuming that those who have campaigned strongly for Remain would not accept a 51-49 vote to leave and would refuse to vote the legislation through Parliament. The Leavers would, of course, see this is an unforgivable betrayal and the divisions would be so deep the Tories would effectively become two parties.

I think we can file that one with 'Cameron will renege on his referendum promise if he wins the election'. It's gonna happens folks. If we vote OUT then out we go. Dave isn't going to free Leave of their moral responsibilities and let them off the hook, even though I get the impression some Leavers are secretly hoping he might.