politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Great news for IN from ICM phone survey and for OUT from IC
Comments
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The NEV vote share calculation allows for not contesting all the seats . UKIP contested all Welsh Assembly seats and still polled 3.5% less than the Yougov online polls .PeterC said:
Poll respondents will assume that there will be a candidate from their chosen party to vote for. UKIP do no not contest every seat and this alone will depress their actual performance compared to poll rating.MarkSenior said:UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
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Glad to hear it - nothing compares to her.BenedictWhite said:
She's been found safe and well.Richard_Tyndall said:OT. Worrying about Sinead O'Connor. Missing since Sunday morning after going for a bike ride in Chicago.
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Keep dreaming of a 20% PCC level turnout so that UKIP voters can sweep you to success in the EU referendumRichard_Tyndall said:
Once again ignoring the PCC elections because they don't match your pre-conceived ideas.MarkSenior said:UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
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What odds the dead heat?DavidL said:Can I confidently claim now that ICM have called this right? Whichever way it goes.
Those that claim gold does not tarnish need to look again.0 -
The Government can't fight in the last 4 weeks - Purdah. Of course they can get everywoman and her cat from the other 27 countries in the EU, the IMF and World Bank to weigh in on their behalf. (Not to mention the EU doing its bit by delaying awkward things like the budget until after the debate.)TonyE said:
In 1975, the polls were fairly accurate and didn't move in the last four weeks. In had it by a long way, and they had done all the ground work before the main campaign started.SeanT said:I reckon REMAIN will be unhappy at these polls. More unhappy than LEAVE
This last week was supposedly "disastrous" for the "useless Leave campaign" (if PB threaders are anything to go by), meanwhile REMAIN threw everything at their opponents, from the IMF lady to Cameron's WAR!!!!
They must have been expecting a noticeable shift in favour of STAY. I confess, I was., too. And yet, nada.
In fact, they had already won the referendum by mid May, as minds were by then made up. This is going to be much closer and the government will have to fight right up to the last day to keep us in. I think they thought that they could win it before the starting gun was fired and threw the kitchen sink at it upfront as in 75. That might end up being their major miscalculation.
Remain will probably still win, but the margin will be too close to settle the issue for long0 -
More Lab Mayors and ex MPs?
Arif Ansari @ArifBBC
Senior Merseyside politicians say Liverpool MPs Steve Rotheram and Luciana Berger will run to be Labour's candidate for metro mayor.
8:02 PM - 16 May 20160 -
Thanet UKIP down from 33 to 26.Omnium said:MarkSenior said:UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
UKIP can't be that meaningless if you're planning to make gains from undermining their support.Richard_Tyndall said:
Once again ignoring the PCC elections because they don't match your pre-conceived ideas.MarkSenior said:UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
http://www.thanetgazette.co.uk/Newington-Ukip-councillor-Mo-Leys-resigns/story-29278983-detail/story.html0 -
Boris has shown it is a lot more fun to be a Mayor than a backbench MP. Even more so if you are in Opposition...logical_song said:
Thanet UKIP down from 33 to 26.Omnium said:MarkSenior said:UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
UKIP can't be that meaningless if you're planning to make gains from undermining their support.Richard_Tyndall said:
Once again ignoring the PCC elections because they don't match your pre-conceived ideas.MarkSenior said:UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
http://www.thanetgazette.co.uk/Newington-Ukip-councillor-Mo-Leys-resigns/story-29278983-detail/story.html0 -
So to be included in an online poll you have to first register yourself with the polling company. Doesn't sound a very satisfactory way of producing a truly representative sample, which is borne out by your comments about insurgent parties being overrepresented in online polls across Europe.rcs1000 said:
They all work in much the same way; you can join the Ipsos-MORI panel here https://www.ipsos-mori.com/ourexpertise/researchtechniques/datacollection/online/onlinepanels/joinus.aspxRichard_Tyndall said:
I know yougov is a self selecting pool from which the company then picks at random but how do the other online firms work?DavidL said:The sad truth is that both phone polls and Internet polls are crap for different reasons. Phone polls cannot reach significant parts of the population and Internet polls are infested with unrepresentative nutters who actually care.
The skill and luck of a pollster is to turn this sows ear into a silk purse by judging how distorted their sample is and compensating vaguely correctly. Who is doing that better in the present case is really anyone's guess.
With the online/phone polls consistently showing different referendum results with a bit of luck the actual result will go someway to indicating which are the most reliable.0 -
So what was turnout in the locals relative to a Westminster election with which the English locals are being compared? Believe what you what, on June 24 we'll have a better idea of how well the polls did.MarkSenior said:
Keep dreaming of a 20% PCC level turnout so that UKIP voters can sweep you to success in the EU referendumRichard_Tyndall said:
Once again ignoring the PCC elections because they don't match your pre-conceived ideas.MarkSenior said:UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
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Burgon-watch.... Labour's new hope.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/86d7276a-f5a6-11e5-803c-d27c7117d132.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/world_uk_politics/feed//product#axzz48qk3Dmpn0 -
Just a piece of inside information:Richard_Tyndall said:OT. Worrying about Sinead O'Connor. Missing since Sunday morning after going for a bike ride in Chicago.
Wilmette is a suburb of Chicago bordering not on Chicago, but on Evanston, itself a 'burb". Both these places are thoroughly respectable middle/ upper-middle/upper class peaceful towns, where kids still can walk to school, and often do.0 -
You might have more luck finding German vultures after June 23rd.MarqueeMark said:Today has mostly been spent not seeing a Lammergeier (a Bearded Vulture) on Dartmoor.
Not happy...
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Mass unemployment has given the lazy swines a good reason to travel as well.philiph said:
I could have sworn that most of the changes in the last twenty years or so to do with 'opening europe' had roots in improved communications.MP_SE said:Call Me Dave claiming the EU is great for young people. I presume he means just those who have jobs.
"EU membership has opened Europe up to the younger generation."
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-writes-mirror-dont-7978638
Social changes, attitudinal changes, pc changes, travel changes, political changes and much more were started or possible because of communication (and some technological) changes. Not Europe.0 -
Moderators
Regarding the previous ICM Phone Apr 12-15, the table on page 13 for certain to vote shows LEAVE as 40 and not the 41 in the figures above. Was there some adjustment?
2016_guardian_april_ICM modetest.pdf
re-posted.0 -
So your low turnout council elections where UKIP didn't stand in most seats is more representative than the low turnout PCC elections where UKIP did stand in most seats.MarkSenior said:
Keep dreaming of a 20% PCC level turnout so that UKIP voters can sweep you to success in the EU referendumRichard_Tyndall said:
Once again ignoring the PCC elections because they don't match your pre-conceived ideas.MarkSenior said:UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
They averaged 15.8% in the 34 PCC elections - not far off that 17% you scorn.
Mind you the Lib Dems always were renowned for their dishonest analysis.0 -
The whole trouble with UKIP is that the internal structure of the party is very flimsy, and policy, such as there is, is made in a very small circle. Take that from me, as an ex member.MarkSenior said:
The NEV vote share calculation allows for not contesting all the seats . UKIP contested all Welsh Assembly seats and still polled 3.5% less than the Yougov online polls .PeterC said:
Poll respondents will assume that there will be a candidate from their chosen party to vote for. UKIP do no not contest every seat and this alone will depress their actual performance compared to poll rating.MarkSenior said:UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
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Mike's headline Voting Intention figures for the Phone Poll are wrong. Should be Con 36% Lab 34%.0
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Evening all
I've no particular view on the evening's polls. I'm sure they have been digested, micro analysed and regurgitated already on here by the psephologists and others.
Musing on the journey home, it seems to me REMAIN are primarily seeing the issue in economic terms. The main argument seems to hinge on the notion we will be £4,300 less well off if we vote to leave the EU and the primary appeal is to security, aspiration and the future.
Yet it is couched in economic terms for, as far as REMAIN is concerned, we are economic units. The Cameron/Osborne mantra of "hard working families" emphasises the economic aspect. We work, we earn for ourselves and we contribute to the greater whole of the British economy. Our raison d'etre is to work, produce and consume - as part of a larger European economy, in which units can move and contribute to the general or indeed specific prosperity.
LEAVE sees it otherwise - the appeal is more to the human aspects of society, culture and identity. For LEAVE, it is about people, individuals and families, not couched in hard economics but in softer less quantifiable aspects such as who we are and the society in which we want to live and the people we want to live with and how we interact with them.
As a parallel from my world of work, I was asked to look at a Council's Library portfolio. I soon realised there was a huge tension between the Library Department and the Central Property function. For Property, the Library was an asset with a defined cost to run and maintain - they could produce life cycle costings for each site.
The Library service saw it quite differently - for them it was about footfall, location and whether those using the library had a positive experience. Harder to quantify but no less valuable.
I soon realised the most property-efficient libraries were the ones least used while the popular libraries needed thousands of pounds to repair and maintain them.
LEAVE, meet REMAIN. Rock, let me introduce you to hard place.0 -
Fewer than 400 have been sent back since EU-Ankara deal came in to effect
The Financial Times reports that some 8,500 people have arrived on Greek islands since the deal came into force, according to the country's migration co-ordination unit.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3593240/Fears-migrant-surge-Greece-fewer-400-sent-Turkey-new-deal-Athens-deems-vast-majority-deserving-asylum.html
What a joke. More money thrown at the problem and basically they are doing f##k all. It should be a ferry a day taking illegals back, not a one ferry total.0 -
Has it taken you this long to work out bean counters like buildings unused whilst service providers want them used?stodge said:Evening all
I soon realised the most property-efficient libraries were the ones least used while the popular libraries needed thousands of pounds to repair and maintain them.
LEAVE, meet REMAIN. Rock, let me introduce you to hard place.
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Run a city or ten years in opposition.Scrapheap_as_was said:More Lab Mayors and ex MPs?
Arif Ansari @ArifBBC
Senior Merseyside politicians say Liverpool MPs Steve Rotheram and Luciana Berger will run to be Labour's candidate for metro mayor.
8:02 PM - 16 May 20160 -
But but Corbynism is sweeping the nation and he will be carried on the shoulders of millions into Downing Street, as he is voted into #10 in a landslide victory in 2020....rottenborough said:
Run a city or ten years in opposition.Scrapheap_as_was said:More Lab Mayors and ex MPs?
Arif Ansari @ArifBBC
Senior Merseyside politicians say Liverpool MPs Steve Rotheram and Luciana Berger will run to be Labour's candidate for metro mayor.
8:02 PM - 16 May 20160 -
Meanwhile, back on earth...FrancisUrquhart said:
But but Corbynism is sweeping the nation and he will be carried on the shoulders of millions into Downing Street, as he is voted into #10 in a landslide victory in 2020....rottenborough said:
Run a city or ten years in opposition.Scrapheap_as_was said:More Lab Mayors and ex MPs?
Arif Ansari @ArifBBC
Senior Merseyside politicians say Liverpool MPs Steve Rotheram and Luciana Berger will run to be Labour's candidate for metro mayor.
8:02 PM - 16 May 20160 -
Although I'm well aware of Purdah, the government (in terms of the personalities) will be unrestrained. It will just be a case of not having access to the state resources.weejonnie said:
The Government can't fight in the last 4 weeks - Purdah. Of course they can get everywoman and her cat from the other 27 countries in the EU, the IMF and World Bank to weigh in on their behalf. (Not to mention the EU doing its bit by delaying awkward things like the budget until after the debate.)TonyE said:
In 1975, the polls were fairly accurate and didn't move in the last four weeks. In had it by a long way, and they had done all the ground work before the main campaign started.SeanT said:I reckon REMAIN will be unhappy at these polls. More unhappy than LEAVE
This last week was supposedly "disastrous" for the "useless Leave campaign" (if PB threaders are anything to go by), meanwhile REMAIN threw everything at their opponents, from the IMF lady to Cameron's WAR!!!!
They must have been expecting a noticeable shift in favour of STAY. I confess, I was., too. And yet, nada.
In fact, they had already won the referendum by mid May, as minds were by then made up. This is going to be much closer and the government will have to fight right up to the last day to keep us in. I think they thought that they could win it before the starting gun was fired and threw the kitchen sink at it upfront as in 75. That might end up being their major miscalculation.
Remain will probably still win, but the margin will be too close to settle the issue for long0 -
So ICM have published a poll which demonstrates that their other poll is bollocks. Only they leave it to us to try and figure out which one is bollocks.
Even the direction of movement isn't consistent.
I'm glad I don't bet!0 -
Remain's argument is essentially Marxist. Regardless of what either side may profess, this is about competing economic interests.stodge said:Evening all
I've no particular view on the evening's polls. I'm sure they have been digested, micro analysed and regurgitated already on here by the psephologists and others.
Musing on the journey home, it seems to me REMAIN are primarily seeing the issue in economic terms. The main argument seems to hinge on the notion we will be £4,300 less well off if we vote to leave the EU and the primary appeal is to security, aspiration and the future.
Yet it is couched in economic terms for, as far as REMAIN is concerned, we are economic units. The Cameron/Osborne mantra of "hard working families" emphasises the economic aspect. We work, we earn for ourselves and we contribute to the greater whole of the British economy. Our raison d'etre is to work, produce and consume - as part of a larger European economy, in which units can move and contribute to the general or indeed specific prosperity.
LEAVE sees it otherwise - the appeal is more to the human aspects of society, culture and identity. For LEAVE, it is about people, individuals and families, not couched in hard economics but in softer less quantifiable aspects such as who we are and the society in which we want to live and the people we want to live with and how we interact with them.
As a parallel from my world of work, I was asked to look at a Council's Library portfolio. I soon realised there was a huge tension between the Library Department and the Central Property function. For Property, the Library was an asset with a defined cost to run and maintain - they could produce life cycle costings for each site.
The Library service saw it quite differently - for them it was about footfall, location and whether those using the library had a positive experience. Harder to quantify but no less valuable.
I soon realised the most property-efficient libraries were the ones least used while the popular libraries needed thousands of pounds to repair and maintain them.
LEAVE, meet REMAIN. Rock, let me introduce you to hard place.0 -
If, as seems quite possible, online polls are driven by the politically motivated signing up, isn't that a bit daft? Why would you want your side to appear to be doing better than it actually is? It would only motivate your rivals and sow the seeds of complacency in your own side. Okay, I suppose you get to gloat on internet forums and watch your rivals panic, but isn't that rather short term?0
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Momentum, or possibly making the opposition panic and do something detrimental?Stark_Dawning said:If, as seems quite possible, online polls are driven by the politically motivated signing up, isn't that a bit daft? Why would you want your side to appear to be doing better than it actually is? It would only motivate your rivals and sow the seeds of complacency in your own side. Okay, I suppose you get to gloat on internet forums and watch your rivals panic, but isn't that rather short term?
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Nice try, but I'm still voting Leave!Sean_F said:
Remain's argument is essentially Marxist.stodge said:Evening all
I've no particular view on the evening's polls. I'm sure they have been digested, micro analysed and regurgitated already on here by the psephologists and others.
Musing on the journey home, it seems to me REMAIN are primarily seeing the issue in economic terms. The main argument seems to hinge on the notion we will be £4,300 less well off if we vote to leave the EU and the primary appeal is to security, aspiration and the future.
Yet it is couched in economic terms for, as far as REMAIN is concerned, we are economic units. The Cameron/Osborne mantra of "hard working families" emphasises the economic aspect. We work, we earn for ourselves and we contribute to the greater whole of the British economy. Our raison d'etre is to work, produce and consume - as part of a larger European economy, in which units can move and contribute to the general or indeed specific prosperity.
LEAVE sees it otherwise - the appeal is more to the human aspects of society, culture and identity. For LEAVE, it is about people, individuals and families, not couched in hard economics but in softer less quantifiable aspects such as who we are and the society in which we want to live and the people we want to live with and how we interact with them.
As a parallel from my world of work, I was asked to look at a Council's Library portfolio. I soon realised there was a huge tension between the Library Department and the Central Property function. For Property, the Library was an asset with a defined cost to run and maintain - they could produce life cycle costings for each site.
The Library service saw it quite differently - for them it was about footfall, location and whether those using the library had a positive experience. Harder to quantify but no less valuable.
I soon realised the most property-efficient libraries were the ones least used while the popular libraries needed thousands of pounds to repair and maintain them.
LEAVE, meet REMAIN. Rock, let me introduce you to hard place.0 -
Even according to telephone polls, UKIP do better than the Lib Dems.Richard_Tyndall said:
So your low turnout council elections where UKIP didn't stand in most seats is more representative than the low turnout PCC elections where UKIP did stand in most seats.MarkSenior said:
Keep dreaming of a 20% PCC level turnout so that UKIP voters can sweep you to success in the EU referendumRichard_Tyndall said:
Once again ignoring the PCC elections because they don't match your pre-conceived ideas.MarkSenior said:UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
They averaged 15.8% in the 34 PCC elections - not far off that 17% you scorn.
Mind you the Lib Dems always were renowned for their dishonest analysis.0 -
You forget that there will be an inevitable Lib Dem surge. They're winning here....Sean_F said:
Even according to telephone polls, UKIP do better than the Lib Dems.Richard_Tyndall said:
So your low turnout council elections where UKIP didn't stand in most seats is more representative than the low turnout PCC elections where UKIP did stand in most seats.MarkSenior said:
Keep dreaming of a 20% PCC level turnout so that UKIP voters can sweep you to success in the EU referendumRichard_Tyndall said:
Once again ignoring the PCC elections because they don't match your pre-conceived ideas.MarkSenior said:UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
They averaged 15.8% in the 34 PCC elections - not far off that 17% you scorn.
Mind you the Lib Dems always were renowned for their dishonest analysis. 0 -
If only Martin Day also made a return we could get a graphical depiction of that.BenedictWhite said:
You forget that there will be an inevitable Lib Dem surge. They're winning here....Sean_F said:
Even according to telephone polls, UKIP do better than the Lib Dems.Richard_Tyndall said:
So your low turnout council elections where UKIP didn't stand in most seats is more representative than the low turnout PCC elections where UKIP did stand in most seats.MarkSenior said:
Keep dreaming of a 20% PCC level turnout so that UKIP voters can sweep you to success in the EU referendumRichard_Tyndall said:
Once again ignoring the PCC elections because they don't match your pre-conceived ideas.MarkSenior said:UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
They averaged 15.8% in the 34 PCC elections - not far off that 17% you scorn.
Mind you the Lib Dems always were renowned for their dishonest analysis.0 -
Not sure if anyone here is updating the Wiki polls listing.
It's got both tonight's ICMs (and with the correct figures) but is missing Sunday's ComRes (Con 36, Lab 30, UKIP 17, LD 8, Green 4).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
Of course not but I don't think the Council concerned knew that or if they did they wanted a third party to give them some guidance as how to resolve the tension.BenedictWhite said:
Has it taken you this long to work out bean counters like buildings unused whilst service providers want them used?
The "bean counters" (whatever that's meant to mean) didn't want the buildings at all and argued libraries have a declining role in our digital world. That's not of course how the Library Service saw it.
By the way, did you ever get that blog of yours ? I thought you mentioned it once but perhaps I was mistaken.
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The absurdity of this debate is somehow to think that a party's "true" level of support is measured only by it's performance in local council elections.BenedictWhite said:
You forget that there will be an inevitable Lib Dem surge. They're winning here....Sean_F said:
Even according to telephone polls, UKIP do better than the Lib Dems.Richard_Tyndall said:
So your low turnout council elections where UKIP didn't stand in most seats is more representative than the low turnout PCC elections where UKIP did stand in most seats.MarkSenior said:
Keep dreaming of a 20% PCC level turnout so that UKIP voters can sweep you to success in the EU referendumRichard_Tyndall said:
Once again ignoring the PCC elections because they don't match your pre-conceived ideas.MarkSenior said:UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
They averaged 15.8% in the 34 PCC elections - not far off that 17% you scorn.
Mind you the Lib Dems always were renowned for their dishonest analysis.0 -
Thanks. That cements my vote.Sean_F said:
Remain's argument is essentially Marxist. Regardless of what either side may profess, this is about competing economic interests.stodge said:Evening all
I've no particular view on the evening's polls. I'm sure they have been digested, micro analysed and regurgitated already on here by the psephologists and others.
Musing on the journey home, it seems to me REMAIN are primarily seeing the issue in economic terms. The main argument seems to hinge on the notion we will be £4,300 less well off if we vote to leave the EU and the primary appeal is to security, aspiration and the future.
Yet it is couched in economic terms for, as far as REMAIN is concerned, we are economic units. The Cameron/Osborne mantra of "hard working families" emphasises the economic aspect. We work, we earn for ourselves and we contribute to the greater whole of the British economy. Our raison d'etre is to work, produce and consume - as part of a larger European economy, in which units can move and contribute to the general or indeed specific prosperity.
LEAVE sees it otherwise - the appeal is more to the human aspects of society, culture and identity. For LEAVE, it is about people, individuals and families, not couched in hard economics but in softer less quantifiable aspects such as who we are and the society in which we want to live and the people we want to live with and how we interact with them.
As a parallel from my world of work, I was asked to look at a Council's Library portfolio. I soon realised there was a huge tension between the Library Department and the Central Property function. For Property, the Library was an asset with a defined cost to run and maintain - they could produce life cycle costings for each site.
The Library service saw it quite differently - for them it was about footfall, location and whether those using the library had a positive experience. Harder to quantify but no less valuable.
I soon realised the most property-efficient libraries were the ones least used while the popular libraries needed thousands of pounds to repair and maintain them.
LEAVE, meet REMAIN. Rock, let me introduce you to hard place.0 -
Interesting comments from Megyn Kelly about Trump and her upcoming interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38iHDyb8mbE0 -
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Sadly, for us Labour types, the GE2015 phone polls proved more accurate.OllyT said:
So to be included in an online poll you have to first register yourself with the polling company. Doesn't sound a very satisfactory way of producing a truly representative sample, which is borne out by your comments about insurgent parties being overrepresented in online polls across Europe.rcs1000 said:
They all work in much the same way; you can join the Ipsos-MORI panel here https://www.ipsos-mori.com/ourexpertise/researchtechniques/datacollection/online/onlinepanels/joinus.aspxRichard_Tyndall said:
I know yougov is a self selecting pool from which the company then picks at random but how do the other online firms work?DavidL said:The sad truth is that both phone polls and Internet polls are crap for different reasons. Phone polls cannot reach significant parts of the population and Internet polls are infested with unrepresentative nutters who actually care.
The skill and luck of a pollster is to turn this sows ear into a silk purse by judging how distorted their sample is and compensating vaguely correctly. Who is doing that better in the present case is really anyone's guess.
With the online/phone polls consistently showing different referendum results with a bit of luck the actual result will go someway to indicating which are the most reliable.0 -
Radek Sikorski, a former Polish foreign minister with longstanding ties to Britain, said he is "very worried" British voters could opt to leave the European Union, fearing it could weaken a political arrangement that has given Europe its longest-ever period of peace and prosperity.....
....Sikorski, who has also held the position of defense minister and speaker of parliament in Poland and is now a senior fellow at Harvard University, argued that a weaker EU would help Russia.
"There is no surprise that Russian media, Russian troll factories, Russian money is supporting Brexit," said Sikorski. "It makes sense that Russia would like to deal with Europe one-by-one and not with the European Union as a whole. That would strengthen Russia's negotiating position vis-a-vis every member state. What surprises me is that some people in smaller countries don't see that."
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/ap-interview-polish-foreign-minister-sees-brexit-dangers-391483990 -
Yes... Bean counters seem to have some odd ideas. My late father told me the story on American railways of a station using too much loo roll so they solved the problem by having the door locked. Loo roll usage dropped dramatically.stodge said:
Of course not but I don't think the Council concerned knew that or if they did they wanted a third party to give them some guidance as how to resolve the tension.BenedictWhite said:
Has it taken you this long to work out bean counters like buildings unused whilst service providers want them used?
The "bean counters" (whatever that's meant to mean) didn't want the buildings at all and argued libraries have a declining role in our digital world. That's not of course how the Library Service saw it.
By the way, did you ever get that blog of yours ? I thought you mentioned it once but perhaps I was mistaken.
Repairs to toilet doors on the other hand rose dramatically as they seldom could find the key in an "emergency". Now there's a surprise!
And yes.. I did get that blog going!
http://aconservatives.blogspot.co.uk/0 -
Received and repliedCyclefree said:0 -
I believe it was derived from an insult that a prominent member of the metropolitan elite on this forum fired off concerning Miss Plato's postsTim_B said:@VapidBilge - was your name inspired by Coldplay recordings, or the Eurovision Song Contest?
0 -
Sean_F said:
Quite. As turnout varies for a variety of reasons.BenedictWhite said:
The absurdity of this debate is somehow to think that a party's "true" level of support is measured only by it's performance in local council elections.Sean_F said:
You forget that there will be an inevitable Lib Dem surge. They're winning here....Richard_Tyndall said:
Even according to telephone polls, UKIP do better than the Lib Dems.MarkSenior said:
So your low turnout council elections where UKIP didn't stand in most seats is more representative than the low turnout PCC elections where UKIP did stand in most seats.
They averaged 15.8% in the 34 PCC elections - not far off that 17% you scorn.
Mind you the Lib Dems always were renowned for their dishonest analysis.0 -
Worth noting though that after (possibly exaggerated) adjustments, the two polls currently show the same VI (2% Tory lead). So whatever was distorting the picture at the GE, this is something different.surbiton said:
Sadly, for us Labour types, the GE2015 phone polls proved more accurate.
0 -
But you don't do good foreign trade by having Brits speak foreign languages better. You do that by having better products at competitive prices and a local strategic partner who knows the market and how to work it and, by being local, has native tongue linguistic abilities rather than 'fluent'.Fenman said:Non tariff barriers basically boil down to ignorant Europeans expecting people trying to sell them services to speak their language. So, whereas they speak English and perhaps two or three others, we only speak our own - badly.
The number of UK students studying European languages has dropped by 6% over the past three years. Little comfort for remainers believing we can trade with the rest of the world however as the number students studying other languages has dropped by 14% over the same period.0 -
Business figures who signed an open letter supporting Brexit include tax avoidance specialists, dozens of retirees and the publisher of a book about Ukip introduced by Nigel Farage.
The list of more than 300 people also includes the bosses of dormant companies and a law firm that admits leaving the European Union could lead to a repeal of workers’ rights.
In a letter published in the Daily Telegraph, the business names claim Brexit would create more jobs, adding that the UK’s competitiveness is being “undermined by our membership”.
While signatories include heavyweight names, such as former HSBC chief executive Michael Geoghegan and the Wetherspoons chairman, Tim Martin, the leadership credentials of many others are less clear. Several preside over companies listed as “dormant” by Companies House, while 23 are no longer active in the business world.
One signatory is John Kersey, managing director of Preston hair salon Kersey Hairdressing, a business with net assets of £313.
The list also includes the bosses of a clutch of firms with a history of facilitating tax avoidance. Robert Hiscox, honorary president of Hiscox Insurance, has been an outspoken defender of tax avoidance, having moved his company to Bermuda to slash its tax bill.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/16/pro-brexit-bosses-include-retirees-and-tax-avoidance-experts0 -
Fox employees been told to row in behind Trump?williamglenn said:Interesting comments from Megyn Kelly about Trump and her upcoming interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38iHDyb8mbE0 -
"Radek Sikorski, a former Polish foreign minister with longstanding ties to Britain, said he is "very worried" British voters could opt to leave the European Union, fearing it could reduce the amount of money his country gets.TheScreamingEagles said:Radek Sikorski, a former Polish foreign minister with longstanding ties to Britain, said he is "very worried" British voters could opt to leave the European Union, fearing it could weaken a political arrangement that has given Europe its longest-ever period of peace and prosperity.....
....Sikorski, who has also held the position of defense minister and speaker of parliament in Poland and is now a senior fellow at Harvard University, argued that a weaker EU would help Russia.
"There is no surprise that Russian media, Russian troll factories, Russian money is supporting Brexit," said Sikorski. "It makes sense that Russia would like to deal with Europe one-by-one and not with the European Union as a whole. That would strengthen Russia's negotiating position vis-a-vis every member state. What surprises me is that some people in smaller countries don't see that."
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/ap-interview-polish-foreign-minister-sees-brexit-dangers-39148399
Fixed it for him.0 -
These organized letters always turn out the same...TheScreamingEagles said:Business figures who signed an open letter supporting Brexit include tax avoidance specialists, dozens of retirees and the publisher of a book about Ukip introduced by Nigel Farage.
The list of more than 300 people also includes the bosses of dormant companies and a law firm that admits leaving the European Union could lead to a repeal of workers’ rights.
In a letter published in the Daily Telegraph, the business names claim Brexit would create more jobs, adding that the UK’s competitiveness is being “undermined by our membership”.
While signatories include heavyweight names, such as former HSBC chief executive Michael Geoghegan and the Wetherspoons chairman, Tim Martin, the leadership credentials of many others are less clear. Several preside over companies listed as “dormant” by Companies House, while 23 are no longer active in the business world.
One signatory is John Kersey, managing director of Preston hair salon Kersey Hairdressing, a business with net assets of £313.
The list also includes the bosses of a clutch of firms with a history of facilitating tax avoidance. Robert Hiscox, honorary president of Hiscox Insurance, has been an outspoken defender of tax avoidance, having moved his company to Bermuda to slash its tax bill.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/16/pro-brexit-bosses-include-retirees-and-tax-avoidance-experts0 -
And have replied back.TheScreamingEagles said:
Received and repliedCyclefree said:
Early night for me now......
0 -
Radek Sikorski might have helped his cause, had he been less rude about the UK in the past.TheScreamingEagles said:Radek Sikorski, a former Polish foreign minister with longstanding ties to Britain, said he is "very worried" British voters could opt to leave the European Union, fearing it could weaken a political arrangement that has given Europe its longest-ever period of peace and prosperity.....
....Sikorski, who has also held the position of defense minister and speaker of parliament in Poland and is now a senior fellow at Harvard University, argued that a weaker EU would help Russia.
"There is no surprise that Russian media, Russian troll factories, Russian money is supporting Brexit," said Sikorski. "It makes sense that Russia would like to deal with Europe one-by-one and not with the European Union as a whole. That would strengthen Russia's negotiating position vis-a-vis every member state. What surprises me is that some people in smaller countries don't see that."
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/ap-interview-polish-foreign-minister-sees-brexit-dangers-391483990 -
Very much depends on the shape of the race. If you are 10 points behind and the race looks lost, having a poll showing you 4 points behind will motivate your side and panic the other.TonyE said:
Momentum, or possibly making the opposition panic and do something detrimental?Stark_Dawning said:If, as seems quite possible, online polls are driven by the politically motivated signing up, isn't that a bit daft? Why would you want your side to appear to be doing better than it actually is? It would only motivate your rivals and sow the seeds of complacency in your own side. Okay, I suppose you get to gloat on internet forums and watch your rivals panic, but isn't that rather short term?
If, on the other hand, you are 10 points ahead and engineer one to show yourself 15 points ahead, that would be stupid.0 -
Yes, but finally prompted by the suggestion that PB should buy a racehorse and name it such.Norm said:
I believe it was derived from an insult that a prominent member of the metropolitan elite on this forum fired off concerning Miss Plato's postsTim_B said:@VapidBilge - was your name inspired by Coldplay recordings, or the Eurovision Song Contest?
Setting up an account with the name would be much cheaper for all involved, excepting the royalties owed to Alastair Meeks.0 -
Ouch.TheScreamingEagles said:Business figures who signed an open letter supporting Brexit include tax avoidance specialists, dozens of retirees and the publisher of a book about Ukip introduced by Nigel Farage.
The list of more than 300 people also includes the bosses of dormant companies and a law firm that admits leaving the European Union could lead to a repeal of workers’ rights.
In a letter published in the Daily Telegraph, the business names claim Brexit would create more jobs, adding that the UK’s competitiveness is being “undermined by our membership”.
While signatories include heavyweight names, such as former HSBC chief executive Michael Geoghegan and the Wetherspoons chairman, Tim Martin, the leadership credentials of many others are less clear. Several preside over companies listed as “dormant” by Companies House, while 23 are no longer active in the business world.
One signatory is John Kersey, managing director of Preston hair salon Kersey Hairdressing, a business with net assets of £313.
The list also includes the bosses of a clutch of firms with a history of facilitating tax avoidance. Robert Hiscox, honorary president of Hiscox Insurance, has been an outspoken defender of tax avoidance, having moved his company to Bermuda to slash its tax bill.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/16/pro-brexit-bosses-include-retirees-and-tax-avoidance-experts0 -
https://twitter.com/pipkazan/status/732305419666886657MarqueeMark said:Today has mostly been spent not seeing a Lammergeier (a Bearded Vulture) on Dartmoor.
Not happy...
0 -
What do you think a right wing TV network would do ?FrancisUrquhart said:
Fox employees been told to row in behind Trump?williamglenn said:Interesting comments from Megyn Kelly about Trump and her upcoming interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38iHDyb8mbE0 -
ORB phone poll
Remain 55 (+4)
Leave 40 (-3)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/16/eu-referendum-51-per-cent-back-remain-as-sir-lynton-crosby-warns/?cid=sf26388159+sf263881590 -
Guardian doesn't like Brexit signatories, shock.TheScreamingEagles said:Business figures who signed an open letter supporting Brexit include tax avoidance specialists, dozens of retirees and the publisher of a book about Ukip introduced by Nigel Farage.
The list of more than 300 people also includes the bosses of dormant companies and a law firm that admits leaving the European Union could lead to a repeal of workers’ rights.
In a letter published in the Daily Telegraph, the business names claim Brexit would create more jobs, adding that the UK’s competitiveness is being “undermined by our membership”.
While signatories include heavyweight names, such as former HSBC chief executive Michael Geoghegan and the Wetherspoons chairman, Tim Martin, the leadership credentials of many others are less clear. Several preside over companies listed as “dormant” by Companies House, while 23 are no longer active in the business world.
One signatory is John Kersey, managing director of Preston hair salon Kersey Hairdressing, a business with net assets of £313.
The list also includes the bosses of a clutch of firms with a history of facilitating tax avoidance. Robert Hiscox, honorary president of Hiscox Insurance, has been an outspoken defender of tax avoidance, having moved his company to Bermuda to slash its tax bill.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/16/pro-brexit-bosses-include-retirees-and-tax-avoidance-experts0 -
duplicate.0
-
Thanks for posting that Plato.Plato_Says said:
The chart I linked to FPT clearly showed undecided and Leave begins at 43yrs old.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
It is possible. But everywhere I read that the older people are the more pro Brexit they are.EPG said:
Maybe instead you have undersampled them in your coming-acrossing?Paul_Bedfordshire said:
That is a very interesting find.Speedy said:The only thing I can see as usual that causes the difference between Online and Phone polls are the reaction of the over 65's of age.
In the ICM Phone poll over 65's are in favour of Remain, in the ICM Online poll they are 2-1 in favour of Leave.
The entire difference is caused by that one category and it's consistent since the start.
If validated I am quite astonished.
Pensioners are the most brexit minded demographic I have come across. I have to wonder sediously what is going on in phone polls if their oaps are remainers in the majority.
I can only think that they have oversampled genteel types that will do what that nice Mr Cameron suggests.
A gap like that only appearing in a single demographic looks unprecedented to me. Top marks to Speedy for spotting it.
I used it to estimate very crudely the Leave share ~ 56%.
I think Remain should be worried.
It doesn't fit with the bookies odds, but here are my calculations:
Age 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ ALL
Electorate 10 15 15 15 15 30 100
Turnout% 43 54 64 72 77 78
Voters 4.3 8.1 9.6 10.8 11.55 23.4 67.8
Leave% 30 35 50 58 60 68
Leave voters 1.3 2.8 4.8 6.3 6.9 15.9 38.0
==> 38.0/67.8 = 56 %
Assumptions
Electorate: my guess for the proportions
Turnout%: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx
Voters = Electorate*Turnout%/100
Leave%: http://www.thetimes.co.uk/redbox/topic/the-europe-question/revealed-the-age-we-turn-eurosceptic
Leave voters = Voters*Leave%0 -
Local election results do show that that voters are willing to support a party, possibly soft support, but support nonetheless. They also build a base to convert to Westminster support. It is the correct way back for LDs.Sean_F said:
The absurdity of this debate is somehow to think that a party's "true" level of support is measured only by it's performance in local council elections.BenedictWhite said:
You forget that there will be an inevitable Lib Dem surge. They're winning here....Sean_F said:
Even according to telephone polls, UKIP do better than the Lib Dems.Richard_Tyndall said:
So your low turnout council elections where UKIP didn't stand in most seats is more representative than the low turnout PCC elections where UKIP did stand in most seats.MarkSenior said:
Keep dreaming of a 20% PCC level turnout so that UKIP voters can sweep you to success in the EU referendumRichard_Tyndall said:
Once again ignoring the PCC elections because they don't match your pre-conceived ideas.MarkSenior said:UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
They averaged 15.8% in the 34 PCC elections - not far off that 17% you scorn.
Mind you the Lib Dems always were renowned for their dishonest analysis.
0 -
It makes you wonder they let the desperate search for numbers to add to the signatories list, blind them to the fact that a chunk will be involved in mickey mouse enterprises.FrancisUrquhart said:
These organized letters always turn out the same...TheScreamingEagles said:Business figures who signed an open letter supporting Brexit include tax avoidance specialists, dozens of retirees and the publisher of a book about Ukip introduced by Nigel Farage.
The list of more than 300 people also includes the bosses of dormant companies and a law firm that admits leaving the European Union could lead to a repeal of workers’ rights.
In a letter published in the Daily Telegraph, the business names claim Brexit would create more jobs, adding that the UK’s competitiveness is being “undermined by our membership”.
While signatories include heavyweight names, such as former HSBC chief executive Michael Geoghegan and the Wetherspoons chairman, Tim Martin, the leadership credentials of many others are less clear. Several preside over companies listed as “dormant” by Companies House, while 23 are no longer active in the business world.
One signatory is John Kersey, managing director of Preston hair salon Kersey Hairdressing, a business with net assets of £313.
The list also includes the bosses of a clutch of firms with a history of facilitating tax avoidance. Robert Hiscox, honorary president of Hiscox Insurance, has been an outspoken defender of tax avoidance, having moved his company to Bermuda to slash its tax bill.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/16/pro-brexit-bosses-include-retirees-and-tax-avoidance-experts
0 -
@Mendelpol: Nigel Farage wants second referendum if Remain campaign wins
Something tells me @Nigel_Farage isn't confident...
https://t.co/SewfjaU5oZ0 -
Interesting poll which backs the ICM phone poll. It will be interesting to see if the differential between phone and internet polls carries on till polling day and if so who is right.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB phone poll
Remain 55 (+4)
Leave 40 (-3)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/16/eu-referendum-51-per-cent-back-remain-as-sir-lynton-crosby-warns/?cid=sf26388159+sf263881590 -
edit to remove my mistake.0
-
That ORB poll has a sample of 800, is that usual?0
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So it could be leave just, remain just or a landslide win for remain....clear as mud.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB phone poll
Remain 55 (+4)
Leave 40 (-3)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/16/eu-referendum-51-per-cent-back-remain-as-sir-lynton-crosby-warns/?cid=sf26388159+sf263881590 -
Yes, that would be a small sample size. Thanks for bringing that up.dr_spyn said:That ORB poll has a sample of 800, is that usual?
0 -
For a phone poll, yesdr_spyn said:That ORB poll has a sample of 800, is that usual?
0 -
As if having 250 rather than 300 would make any difference...Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It makes you wonder they let the desperate search for numbers to add to the signatories list, blind them to the fact that a chunk will be involved in mickey mouse enterprises.FrancisUrquhart said:
These organized letters always turn out the same...TheScreamingEagles said:Business figures who signed an open letter supporting Brexit include tax avoidance specialists, dozens of retirees and the publisher of a book about Ukip introduced by Nigel Farage.
The list of more than 300 people also includes the bosses of dormant companies and a law firm that admits leaving the European Union could lead to a repeal of workers’ rights.
In a letter published in the Daily Telegraph, the business names claim Brexit would create more jobs, adding that the UK’s competitiveness is being “undermined by our membership”.
While signatories include heavyweight names, such as former HSBC chief executive Michael Geoghegan and the Wetherspoons chairman, Tim Martin, the leadership credentials of many others are less clear. Several preside over companies listed as “dormant” by Companies House, while 23 are no longer active in the business world.
One signatory is John Kersey, managing director of Preston hair salon Kersey Hairdressing, a business with net assets of £313.
The list also includes the bosses of a clutch of firms with a history of facilitating tax avoidance. Robert Hiscox, honorary president of Hiscox Insurance, has been an outspoken defender of tax avoidance, having moved his company to Bermuda to slash its tax bill.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/16/pro-brexit-bosses-include-retirees-and-tax-avoidance-experts0 -
Coincidentally tonight, I have just watched the drama documentary Dream Alliance where Welsh villagers did this very thing. Very good documentary available now on skyVapidBilge said:
Yes, but finally prompted by the suggestion that PB should buy a racehorse and name it such.Norm said:
I believe it was derived from an insult that a prominent member of the metropolitan elite on this forum fired off concerning Miss Plato's postsTim_B said:@VapidBilge - was your name inspired by Coldplay recordings, or the Eurovision Song Contest?
Setting up an account with the name would be much cheaper for all involved, excepting the royalties owed to Alastair Meeks.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dream_Alliance0 -
Isn't this fun?FrancisUrquhart said:
So it could be leave just, remain just or a landslide win for remain....clear as mud.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB phone poll
Remain 55 (+4)
Leave 40 (-3)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/16/eu-referendum-51-per-cent-back-remain-as-sir-lynton-crosby-warns/?cid=sf26388159+sf26388159 0 -
@LordAshcroft: In a survey of 48000 @Telegraph readers 78% voted to Leave the EU0
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ICM has become a disaster recently, IMO.SandyRentool said:So ICM have published a poll which demonstrates that their other poll is bollocks. Only they leave it to us to try and figure out which one is bollocks.
Even the direction of movement isn't consistent.
I'm glad I don't bet!
Come back Nick Sparrow.0 -
All types of voting show varying, degrees of support. Parliamentary, by-elections, PCC's, councils, assemblies, Euros. People pick and mix.foxinsoxuk said:
Local election results do show that that voters are willing to support a party, possibly soft support, but support nonetheless. They also build a base to convert to Westminster support. It is the correct way back for LDs.Sean_F said:
The absurdity of this debate is somehow to think that a party's "true" level of support is measured only by it's performance in local council elections.BenedictWhite said:
You forget that there will be an inevitable Lib Dem surge. They're winning here....Sean_F said:
Even according to telephone polls, UKIP do better than the Lib Dems.Richard_Tyndall said:
So your low turnout council elections where UKIP didn't stand in most seats is more representative than the low turnout PCC elections where UKIP did stand in most seats.MarkSenior said:
Keep dreaming of a 20% PCC level turnout so that UKIP voters can sweep you to success in the EU referendumRichard_Tyndall said:
Once again ignoring the PCC elections because they don't match your pre-conceived ideas.MarkSenior said:UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
They averaged 15.8% in the 34 PCC elections - not far off that 17% you scorn.
Mind you the Lib Dems always were renowned for their dishonest analysis.0 -
I could have told you that without the need or expense of surveying 50k people.Scott_P said:@LordAshcroft: In a survey of 48000 @Telegraph readers 78% voted to Leave the EU
0 -
Chortle
@steve_hawkes: Lynton Crosby says Vote Leave should spend less time worrying about TV debates - and more time finding/delivering a clearer/simpler message0 -
Weighted by turnout (which ORB headlines) the numbers are 51/45.BenedictWhite said:
Interesting poll which backs the ICM phone poll. It will be interesting to see if the differential between phone and internet polls carries on till polling day and if so who is right.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB phone poll
Remain 55 (+4)
Leave 40 (-3)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/16/eu-referendum-51-per-cent-back-remain-as-sir-lynton-crosby-warns/?cid=sf26388159+sf263881590 -
Agreed.Scott_P said:Chortle
@steve_hawkes: Lynton Crosby says Vote Leave should spend less time worrying about TV debates - and more time finding/delivering a clearer/simpler message0 -
And a small (800) sample size apparently.Sean_F said:
Weighted by turnout (which ORB headlines) the numbers are 51/45.BenedictWhite said:
Interesting poll which backs the ICM phone poll. It will be interesting to see if the differential between phone and internet polls carries on till polling day and if so who is right.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB phone poll
Remain 55 (+4)
Leave 40 (-3)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/16/eu-referendum-51-per-cent-back-remain-as-sir-lynton-crosby-warns/?cid=sf26388159+sf263881590 -
While I'm sure the causes are various, the number of migrants coming across the Med has dramatically fallen. See:FrancisUrquhart said:Fewer than 400 have been sent back since EU-Ankara deal came in to effect
The Financial Times reports that some 8,500 people have arrived on Greek islands since the deal came into force, according to the country's migration co-ordination unit.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3593240/Fears-migrant-surge-Greece-fewer-400-sent-Turkey-new-deal-Athens-deems-vast-majority-deserving-asylum.html
What a joke. More money thrown at the problem and basically they are doing f##k all. It should be a ferry a day taking illegals back, not a one ferry total.
http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php
At its peak in October 2015, 221,000 migrants crossed the Med to Italy and Greece. Last month (April) it was 12,000. You can argue that's not enough, but it's still down 96% or so.0 -
Remain is going to win of course.BenedictWhite said:
Isn't this fun?FrancisUrquhart said:
So it could be leave just, remain just or a landslide win for remain....clear as mud.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB phone poll
Remain 55 (+4)
Leave 40 (-3)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/16/eu-referendum-51-per-cent-back-remain-as-sir-lynton-crosby-warns/?cid=sf26388159+sf26388159
The fun really starts from 24th May when we can sit back and wait for all Cameron and Osborne's lies about how we're in for motherhood and apple pie courtesy of their beloved EU to blow up in their faces...
Won't make any difference to our fate (we'll be trapped forever in the USE) but at least we'll get to see Cameron, Osborne and the Tory Party generally, cast into oblivion.
0 -
General Radek? Wasn't he the baddy in Air Force One?Sean_F said:
Radek Sikorski might have helped his cause, had he been less rude about the UK in the past.TheScreamingEagles said:Radek Sikorski, a former Polish foreign minister with longstanding ties to Britain, said he is "very worried" British voters could opt to leave the European Union, fearing it could weaken a political arrangement that has given Europe its longest-ever period of peace and prosperity.....
....Sikorski, who has also held the position of defense minister and speaker of parliament in Poland and is now a senior fellow at Harvard University, argued that a weaker EU would help Russia.
"There is no surprise that Russian media, Russian troll factories, Russian money is supporting Brexit," said Sikorski. "It makes sense that Russia would like to deal with Europe one-by-one and not with the European Union as a whole. That would strengthen Russia's negotiating position vis-a-vis every member state. What surprises me is that some people in smaller countries don't see that."
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/ap-interview-polish-foreign-minister-sees-brexit-dangers-391483990 -
I agree, but it does give some indicatoon of possible maximum vote in any particular area, and indicate potential target seats.Sean_F said:
All types of voting show varying, degrees of support. Parliamentary, by-elections, PCC's, councils, assemblies, Euros. People pick and mix.foxinsoxuk said:
Local election results do show that that voters are willing to support a party, possibly soft support, but support nonetheless. They also build a base to convert to Westminster support. It is the correct way back for LDs.Sean_F said:
The absurdity of this debate is somehow to think that a party's "true" level of support is measured only by it's performance in local council elections.BenedictWhite said:
You forget that there will be an inevitable Lib Dem surge. They're winning here....Sean_F said:
Even according to telephone polls, UKIP do better than the Lib Dems.Richard_Tyndall said:
So your low turnout council elections where UKIP didn't stand in most seats is more representative than the low turnout PCC elections where UKIP did stand in most seats.MarkSenior said:
Keep dreaming of a 20% PCC level turnout so that UKIP voters can sweep you to success in the EU referendumRichard_Tyndall said:
Once again ignoring the PCC elections because they don't match your pre-conceived ideas.MarkSenior said:UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
They averaged 15.8% in the 34 PCC elections - not far off that 17% you scorn.
Mind you the Lib Dems always were renowned for their dishonest analysis.
UKIP themselves did not seem to know where their own targets were last May.0 -
Or the concise version:justin124 said:Mike's headline Voting Intention figures for the Phone Poll are wrong. Should be Con 36% Lab 34%.
Mike's wrong
0 -
I have basically no confidence in ORB, as there is absolutely no way that only 5% of the population is undecided. (Although it's slightly more plausible than the 3% they had last time.)TheScreamingEagles said:ORB phone poll
Remain 55 (+4)
Leave 40 (-3)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/16/eu-referendum-51-per-cent-back-remain-as-sir-lynton-crosby-warns/?cid=sf26388159+sf263881590 -
Damn. Sinead O'connor has been found already.
I really wanted her to be missing for seven hours and fifteen days.0 -
Only 78% with that demographic of elderly League of Empire Loyalists? Reweighting to a UK electorate must give a Remain Landslide.Scott_P said:@LordAshcroft: In a survey of 48000 @Telegraph readers 78% voted to Leave the EU
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If Remain wins, it's same old, same old. The EU constantly tries to centralise power, we constantly complain ineffectually.GIN1138 said:
Remain is going to win of course.BenedictWhite said:
Isn't this fun?FrancisUrquhart said:
So it could be leave just, remain just or a landslide win for remain....clear as mud.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB phone poll
Remain 55 (+4)
Leave 40 (-3)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/16/eu-referendum-51-per-cent-back-remain-as-sir-lynton-crosby-warns/?cid=sf26388159+sf26388159
The fun really starts from 24th May when we can sit back and wait for all Cameron and Osborne's lies about how we're in for motherhood and apple pie courtesy of their beloved EU blows up in their faces...
Won't make any difference to our fate (we'll be trapped forever in the USE) but at least we'll get to see Cameron, Osborne and the Tory Party generally, cast into oblivion.0 -
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Yeah, but tell me more about that chick on the left.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Cameron's a shallow, lying, treacherous fake. Who knew??????TheScreamingEagles said:
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I think we've all been surprised to find out where UKIP's support is strongest.foxinsoxuk said:
I agree, but it does give some indicatoon of possible maximum vote in any particular area, and indicate potential target seats.Sean_F said:
All types of voting show varying, degrees of support. Parliamentary, by-elections, PCC's, councils, assemblies, Euros. People pick and mix.foxinsoxuk said:
Local election results do show that that voters are willing to support a party, possibly soft support, but support nonetheless. They also build a base to convert to Westminster support. It is the correct way back for LDs.Sean_F said:
The absurdity of this debate is somehow to think that a party's "true" level of support is measured only by it's performance in local council elections.BenedictWhite said:
You forget that there will be an inevitable Lib Dem surge. They're winning here....Sean_F said:
Even according to telephone polls, UKIP do better than the Lib Dems.Richard_Tyndall said:
So your low turnout council elections where UKIP didn't stand in most seats is more representative than the low turnout PCC elections where UKIP did stand in most seats.MarkSenior said:
Keep dreaming of a 20% PCC level turnout so that UKIP voters can sweep you to success in the EU referendumRichard_Tyndall said:
Once again ignoring the PCC elections because they don't match your pre-conceived ideas.MarkSenior said:UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
They averaged 15.8% in the 34 PCC elections - not far off that 17% you scorn.
Mind you the Lib Dems always were renowned for their dishonest analysis.
UKIP themselves did not seem to know where their own targets were last May.0 -
Once leave adopts the fair message of ETA membership and accepts free movement of labour they can make a positive case. Exit from the single market as Gove is seeking will be demolished in his debate on the 3rd June, so they only have just over 14 days to get their message togetherSunil_Prasannan said:
General Radek? Wasn't he the baddy in Air Force One?Sean_F said:
Radek Sikorski might have helped his cause, had he been less rude about the UK in the past.TheScreamingEagles said:Radek Sikorski, a former Polish foreign minister with longstanding ties to Britain, said he is "very worried" British voters could opt to leave the European Union, fearing it could weaken a political arrangement that has given Europe its longest-ever period of peace and prosperity.....
....Sikorski, who has also held the position of defense minister and speaker of parliament in Poland and is now a senior fellow at Harvard University, argued that a weaker EU would help Russia.
"There is no surprise that Russian media, Russian troll factories, Russian money is supporting Brexit," said Sikorski. "It makes sense that Russia would like to deal with Europe one-by-one and not with the European Union as a whole. That would strengthen Russia's negotiating position vis-a-vis every member state. What surprises me is that some people in smaller countries don't see that."
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/ap-interview-polish-foreign-minister-sees-brexit-dangers-391483990 -
SNP scandalrcs1000 said:
Yeah, but tell me more about that chick on the left.TheScreamingEagles said:0
