With some trepidation after 10 years of lurking I enter the fray...that said its late at night so hopefully not too many people around!!!!
My qualitative observation of phone polls over the last 20 plus years is that they are always "skewed" by the "embarrassment factor" I.e. "Would I really want my friends to know I said that".
This was historically the "shy Tory" vote which the pollsters have constantly tried to address.
My suspicion is that there is much more likely to be a shy leave mentality particularly amongst the middle classes than a shy remain. So people will quite happily say they are conservative but not say they are a leaver.
So my view is that the online polls are more likely to be right than the telephone polls albeit the triangulation is no doubt somewhere in between the two.
That said I would still expect a last minute break for certainty so remain should pick up more late decides by a margin than leave.
We of course will only know once we get to 24th June!
All seems to point in my opinion to a narrow remain win with the majority of conservative voters wanting to leave which as others on this thread and elsewhere have noted is when it really will get quite unpleasant for Cameron and Co no doubt fanned by Donald Trump who is patently no fan of Cameron!
I would venture to suggest you have been bitter with them both as they have decided in their opinion UK was better in than out the EU, and that you may have underestimated their ruthless nature to win their argument
Possibly some truth in that.
I always expected (from the "cast iron" Lisbon fiasco) that Cameron probably would campaign to stay in the EU come any referendum but, perhaps foolishly, I took him at his word when he promised a meaningful "renegotiation" of our relationship with the EU, rather than the embarrassing fiasco of a "deal" we ended up with (notice how even Cameron and REMAIN themselves have stopped mentioning the renegotiation... Even they are embarrassed about it)
But the final straw was Obama flying in to threaten me in my own country. That's when they crossed the Rubicon to the point of no return for me.
Genuinely shocked to discover Dave was always going to come out in favour of us staying in the EU. I just can't believe it.
The good news is I've just sent the wife of a deceased Nigerian oil minister my bank account details. Tomorrow $10 million will be winging it's way to me.
I would venture to suggest you have been bitter with them both as they have decided in their opinion UK was better in than out the EU, and that you may have underestimated their ruthless nature to win their argument
Possibly some truth in that.
I always expected (from the "cast iron" Lisbon fiasco) that Cameron probably would campaign to stay in the EU come any referendum but, perhaps foolishly, I took him at his word when he promised a meaningful "renegotiation" of our relationship with the EU, rather than the embarrassing fiasco of a "deal" we ended up with (notice how even Cameron and REMAIN themselves have stopped mentioning the renegotiation... Even they are embarrassed about it)
But the final straw was Obama flying in to threaten me in my own country. That's when they crossed the Rubicon to the point of no return for me.
Sorry, you just can't say that, awful tautology
That's when they crossed the Rubicon to the point of no return for me.
Genuinely shocked to discover Dave was always going to come out in favour of us staying in the EU. I just can't believe it.
The good news is I've just sent the wife of a deceased Nigerian oil minister my bank account details. Tomorrow $10 million will be winging it's way to me.
Boom, boom
If you're nice to me, I'll spend £5 million of it for you
On Cameron, that and his quotes pre announcing his intention to remain are going to make his debate difficult.
@steve_hawkes: Lynton Crosby says Vote Leave should spend less time worrying about TV debates - and more time finding/delivering a clearer/simpler message
The one thing I hope we all learned from last year was hubris is not a good look before the results come in.
Whatever. I don't think people like you have much future on the right, long term.
Most Tories are LEAVERS, nearly all Kippers are LEAVERS. Therefore, YOU are the anomaly. The deformed second embryo. The monstrous aberration.
After the referendum, your kind will be scraped from the uterus of conservative British politics with wire coat hangers.
If I survived being a Ken Clarke supporter in 2001, I'm sure I'll survive this.
More unites the Tory Party than divides it.
The Tories are in a terrible, horrible place. The opposition is unelectable. The country is in trouble whatever the result next month.
I'll never forget what a history professor told me a few years ago.
The Tory Party always adapts and changes to fit what the voters wants. That's why generally they've been so successful many centuries.
My hope is, whatever the result on June the 23rd, the party stops drinking the kool aid, and respects the will of the people and moves on without rancour.
I seem to recall that you were flirting with voting Ed Miliband a year or so back. That's fine, but I find it rather difficult to square with the current bombast.
I "flirted" with Ed in 2012/2013 (pasty tax and double dip) but went back to the Tories in 2014 and voted Con in 2015 (as I did in 2010) For anybody interested, I voted Labour in 1997, sat 2001 out and went Lib-Dem in 2005.
Suffice to say I'll be doing something different in 2020...
The one thing I hope we all learned from last year was hubris is not a good look before the results come in.
Whatever. I don't think people like you have much future on the right, long term.
Most Tories are LEAVERS, nearly all Kippers are LEAVERS. Therefore, YOU are the anomaly. The deformed second embryo. The monstrous aberration.
After the referendum, your kind will be scraped from the uterus of conservative British politics with wire coat hangers.
If I survived being a Ken Clarke supporter in 2001, I'm sure I'll survive this.
More unites the Tory Party than divides it.
The Tories are in a terrible, horrible place. The opposition is unelectable. The country is in trouble whatever the result next month.
I'll never forget what a history professor told me a few years ago.
The Tory Party always adapts and changes to fit what the voters wants. That's why generally they've been so successful many centuries.
My hope is, whatever the result on June the 23rd, the party stops drinking the kool aid, and respects the will of the people and moves on without rancour.
We love power.
There was a way to fight this referendum without leaving rancour behind.
As for the "We love power" I'm not sure how that squares with EU membership.
I reckon it will take the Tory party ten years or more to get over this vote. The bitterness at the pro-EU "leadership" will be overwhelming.
It will be even worse than Scotland after indyref. Why? Because indyref at least produced more autonomy for Scotland.
What will a REMAIN vote produce? Less sovereignty. The moment our IN vote is delivered, the EU will go right back to doing what it has always done, corroding and debasing our independence, forcing us bit by bit into the superstate, demanding harmonisation of welfare, taxes, defence, police forces, legal systems, etc. With the threat of Brexit safely avoided, they will be even more confident in their power grabs.
The EU will do this because this is what the EU does, it is in the DNA of the organisation. REMAINAINS who deny this, especially, the rightwing REMAINIANS on pb, are either idiots or traitors. Perhaps they are both.
And this is why the EU, and associated bitterness over the referendum, will envenom rightwing politics for a generation - even worse than before.
And this is why Tory europhiles will be hunted like rats.
Seems a fair summary.
And the majority of the country will look on bemused.
The one thing I hope we all learned from last year was hubris is not a good look before the results come in.
Whatever. I don't think people like you have much future on the right, long term.
Most Tories are LEAVERS, nearly all Kippers are LEAVERS. Therefore, YOU are the anomaly. The deformed second embryo. The monstrous aberration.
After the referendum, your kind will be scraped from the uterus of conservative British politics with wire coat hangers.
If I survived being a Ken Clarke supporter in 2001, I'm sure I'll survive this.
More unites the Tory Party than divides it.
The Tories are in a terrible, horrible place. The opposition is unelectable. The country is in trouble whatever the result next month.
I'll never forget what a history professor told me a few years ago.
The Tory Party always adapts and changes to fit what the voters wants. That's why generally they've been so successful many centuries.
My hope is, whatever the result on June the 23rd, the party stops drinking the kool aid, and respects the will of the people and moves on without rancour.
We love power.
There was a way to fight this referendum without leaving rancour behind.
As for the "We love power" I'm not sure how that squares with EU membership.
If David Cameron had backed Leave, he would have fought exactly the same style of campaign, and those criticising now would be praising him to the rafters.
The remain Tory supporters on here think this will be forgotten long after the referendum.
When labour get a new vote friendly leader and the Remain tories on here or round the country start sounding out that you can't let labour win like when miliband was looking good in the polls.
That will be the day these people find out the tories have lost and will not be trusted for a very long time and can go whistle in the wind.
I won't trust a tory leader for a very long time after Fake Dave.
The one thing I hope we all learned from last year was hubris is not a good look before the results come in.
Whatever. I don't think people like you have much future on the right, long term.
Most Tories are LEAVERS, nearly all Kippers are LEAVERS. Therefore, YOU are the anomaly. The deformed second embryo. The monstrous aberration.
After the referendum, your kind will be scraped from the uterus of conservative British politics with wire coat hangers.
If I survived being a Ken Clarke supporter in 2001, I'm sure I'll survive this.
More unites the Tory Party than divides it.
The Tories are in a terrible, horrible place. The opposition is unelectable. The country is in trouble whatever the result next month.
I'll never forget what a history professor told me a few years ago.
The Tory Party always adapts and changes to fit what the voters wants. That's why generally they've been so successful many centuries.
My hope is, whatever the result on June the 23rd, the party stops drinking the kool aid, and respects the will of the people and moves on without rancour.
We love power.
There was a way to fight this referendum without leaving rancour behind.
As for the "We love power" I'm not sure how that squares with EU membership.
If David Cameron had backed Leave, he would have fought exactly the same style of campaign, and those criticising now would be praising him to the rafters.
I certainly would not have been praising him as it leaves people feeling cheated and does not settle anything.
The remain Tory supporters on here think this will be forgotten long after the referendum.
When labour get a new vote friendly leader and the Remain tories on here or round the country start sounding out that you can't let labour win like when miliband was looking good in the polls.
That will be the day these people find out the tories have lost and will not be trusted for a very long time and can go whistle in the wind.
I won't trust a tory leader for a very long time after Fake Dave.
Yes. It will probably take an economic crisis (which all Labour governments eventually end up with) for me to vote Conservative again... I think that will be many years into the future.
The one thing I hope we all learned from last year was hubris is not a good look before the results come in.
Whatever. I don't think people like you have much future on the right, long term.
Most Tories are LEAVERS, nearly all Kippers are LEAVERS. Therefore, YOU are the anomaly. The deformed second embryo. The monstrous aberration.
After the referendum, your kind will be scraped from the uterus of conservative British politics with wire coat hangers.
If I survived being a Ken Clarke supporter in 2001, I'm sure I'll survive this.
More unites the Tory Party than divides it.
The Tories are in a terrible, horrible place. The opposition is unelectable. The country is in trouble whatever the result next month.
I'll never forget what a history professor told me a few years ago.
The Tory Party always adapts and changes to fit what the voters wants. That's why generally they've been so successful many centuries.
My hope is, whatever the result on June the 23rd, the party stops drinking the kool aid, and respects the will of the people and moves on without rancour.
We love power.
It's gone too far. It's become too personal. People care so much. This is not something that can or will be forgotten. Your only possible hope is a Remain win big enough to shut Leavers up. But that isn't going to happen. Immigration will see to that and could easily still tip it Leave's way.
The one thing I hope we all learned from last year was hubris is not a good look before the results come in.
Whatever. I don't think people like you have much future on the right, long term.
Most Tories are LEAVERS, nearly all Kippers are LEAVERS. Therefore, YOU are the anomaly. The deformed second embryo. The monstrous aberration.
After the referendum, your kind will be scraped from the uterus of conservative British politics with wire coat hangers.
If I survived being a Ken Clarke supporter in 2001, I'm sure I'll survive this.
More unites the Tory Party than divides it.
The Tories are in a terrible, horrible place. The opposition is unelectable. The country is in trouble whatever the result next month.
I'll never forget what a history professor told me a few years ago.
The Tory Party always adapts and changes to fit what the voters wants. That's why generally they've been so successful many centuries.
My hope is, whatever the result on June the 23rd, the party stops drinking the kool aid, and respects the will of the people and moves on without rancour.
We love power.
There was a way to fight this referendum without leaving rancour behind.
As for the "We love power" I'm not sure how that squares with EU membership.
If David Cameron had backed Leave, he would have fought exactly the same style of campaign, and those criticising now would be praising him to the rafters.
There appeared to be less Tory remainers so it would have been easier to get away with but no, it isn't the right position to adopt to either settle the issue in the long term (I thought the whole point of the exercise but what do I know) or keep the party together.
It also gets worse, because unlike the Scotland indy ref there was vanishingly small chance of a power grab from Westminster after an In vote whereas the same isn't true of the EU, so if remain win, there would be hell to pay all over again. See? It's a sort of well built win lose lose.
I reckon it will take the Tory party ten years or more to get over this vote. The bitterness at the pro-EU "leadership" will be overwhelming.
It will be even worse than Scotland after indyref. Why? Because indyref at least produced more autonomy for Scotland.
What will a REMAIN vote produce? Less sovereignty. The moment our IN vote is delivered, the EU will go right back to doing what it has always done, corroding and debasing our independence, forcing us bit by bit into the superstate, demanding harmonisation of welfare, taxes, defence, police forces, legal systems, etc. With the threat of Brexit safely avoided, they will be even more confident in their power grabs.
The EU will do this because this is what the EU does, it is in the DNA of the organisation. REMAINAINS who deny this, especially, the rightwing REMAINIANS on pb, are either idiots or traitors. Perhaps they are both.
And this is why the EU, and associated bitterness over the referendum, will envenom rightwing politics for a generation - even worse than before.
And this is why Tory europhiles will be hunted like rats.
Unless it is Remain by close to 60% I doubt it, the EU will have enough on its hands dealing with Marine Le Pen coming first in the French presidential election next year, as well as the rise of Wilders in the Netherlands and the AfD in Germany
The one thing I hope we all learned from last year was hubris is not a good look before the results come in.
Whatever. I don't think people like you have much future on the right, long term.
Most Tories are LEAVERS, nearly all Kippers are LEAVERS. Therefore, YOU are the anomaly. The deformed second embryo. The monstrous aberration.
After the referendum, your kind will be scraped from the uterus of conservative British politics with wire coat hangers.
If I survived being a Ken Clarke supporter in 2001, I'm sure I'll survive this.
More unites the Tory Party than divides it.
The Tories are in a terrible, horrible place. The opposition is unelectable. The country is in trouble whatever the result next month.
I'll never forget what a history professor told me a few years ago.
The Tory Party always adapts and changes to fit what the voters wants. That's why generally they've been so successful many centuries.
My hope is, whatever the result on June the 23rd, the party stops drinking the kool aid, and respects the will of the people and moves on without rancour.
We love power.
There was a way to fight this referendum without leaving rancour behind.
As for the "We love power" I'm not sure how that squares with EU membership.
If David Cameron had backed Leave, he would have fought exactly the same style of campaign, and those criticising now would be praising him to the rafters.
BUT HE WAS NEVER GOING TO BACK LEAVE. EVER. YOU KNOW THIS.
He said it himself years ago.
Which means the entire renegotiation was a fraud. A total, painful, mortifying charade. A pantomime. An act of base duplicity. A great big full-fat LIE from beginning to end.
We all know politicians lie. But there are still lies which are so breathtaking, and so brazen, they can shock the average voter. And in this case Cameron told the Big Lie on the most fundamental issue of all: the sovereignty of the United Kingdom.
He will be made to pay.
You're not stupid. You must have known he was lying, that he was going to back staying in and the renegotiation was for show. Everything that's happened was always going to happen. Intelligent Leavers protesteth too much.
I reckon it will take the Tory party ten years or more to get over this vote. The bitterness at the pro-EU "leadership" will be overwhelming.
It will be even worse than Scotland after indyref. Why? Because indyref at least produced more autonomy for Scotland.
What will a REMAIN vote produce? Less sovereignty. The moment our IN vote is delivered, the EU will go right back to doing what it has always done, corroding and debasing our independence, forcing us bit by bit into the superstate, demanding harmonisation of welfare, taxes, defence, police forces, legal systems, etc. With the threat of Brexit safely avoided, they will be even more confident in their power grabs.
The EU will do this because this is what the EU does, it is in the DNA of the organisation. REMAINAINS who deny this, especially, the rightwing REMAINIANS on pb, are either idiots or traitors. Perhaps they are both.
And this is why the EU, and associated bitterness over the referendum, will envenom rightwing politics for a generation - even worse than before.
And this is why Tory europhiles will be hunted like rats.
Unless it is Remain by close to 60% I doubt it, the EU will have enough on its hands dealing with Marine Le Pen coming first in the French presidential election next year, as well as the rise of Wilders in the Netherlands and the AfD in Germany
Marine Le Pen is not going to win. Nor is Wilders, nor the AfD. And the EU already has plans to encroach on our sovereignty post referendum. As soon as we have voted.
Apart from that, good post.
Top teasing Mr T. I happen to agree with you on those. The final point is almost certain. The EU don't really seem to understand 'steady the horses'; perhaps it doesn't translate.
I reckon it will take the Tory party ten years or more to get over this vote. The bitterness at the pro-EU "leadership" will be overwhelming.
It will be even worse than Scotland after indyref. Why? Because indyref at least produced more autonomy for Scotland.
What will a REMAIN vote produce? Less sovereignty. The moment our IN vote is delivered, the EU will go right back to doing what it has always done, corroding and debasing our independence, forcing us bit by bit into the superstate, demanding harmonisation of welfare, taxes, defence, police forces, legal systems, etc. With the threat of Brexit safely avoided, they will be even more confident in their power grabs.
The EU will do this because this is what the EU does, it is in the DNA of the organisation. REMAINAINS who deny this, especially, the rightwing REMAINIANS on pb, are either idiots or traitors. Perhaps they are both.
And this is why the EU, and associated bitterness over the referendum, will envenom rightwing politics for a generation - even worse than before.
And this is why Tory europhiles will be hunted like rats.
Unless it is Remain by close to 60% I doubt it, the EU will have enough on its hands dealing with Marine Le Pen coming first in the French presidential election next year, as well as the rise of Wilders in the Netherlands and the AfD in Germany
Marine Le Pen is not going to win. Nor is Wilders, nor the AfD. And the EU already has plans to encroach on our sovereignty post referendum. As soon as we have voted.
Apart from that, good post.
Polls have showed Le Pen comfortably ahead in round one and she beats Hollande in a run-off, Wilders leads in the Netherlands, the AfD have enough votes to deny even a second CDU-SPD coalition. I doubt EU ref will see Remain win any more than 52-48 (even ORB tonight has it 53-47 amongst those certain to vote) which will give UKIP more than enough ammunition to see a mini SNP style revival. The EU is about to be engulfed by a tidal wave of populism it has not experienced since its foundation, of the eurosceptic right in the north and the populist left in the south, it will have little time for compulsory Ode to Joys and hailing of Juncker!
I hope the metropolitan remainers are looking forwards to the mansion rax, as Corbyn wins the next election.
It's the Tory Leavers who will be voting for him, apparently.
No Tory Leavers are going to vote for Corbyn, they may vote for UKIP in disgust at Cameron over EUref, much as Labour lefties voted LD in disgust at Blair over Iraq
The one thing I hope we all learned from last year was hubris is not a good look before the results come in.
onstrous aberration.
After the referendum, your kind will be scraped from the uterus of conservative British politics with wire coat hangers.
If I survived being a Ken Clarke supporter in 2001, I'm sure I'll survive this.
More unites the Tory Party than divides it.
The Tories are in a terrible, horrible place. The opposition is unelectable. The country is in trouble whatever the result next month.
I'llon without rancour.
We love power.
There was a way to fight this referendum without leaving rancour behind.
As for the "We love power" I'm not sure how that squares with EU membership.
If David Cameron had backed Leave, he would have fought exactly the same style of campaign, and those criticising now would be praising him to the rafters.
BUT
You're not stupid. You must have known he was lying, that he was going to back staying in and the renegotiation was for show. Everything that's happened was always going to happen. Intelligent Leavers protesteth too much.
No. I knew he would back REMAIN. But I also thought he was a skilful and clever statesman. I never for one moment believed he would produce such a pitiful and dismal renegotiation - I genuinely (perhaps credulously) believed he would come back with a couple of very serious reforms - given that he had the threat of Brexit, to aim at other EU leaders, and given that his party is properly eurosceptic.
And yet he got nothing. He got worse than nothing, he got an insult wrapped in a big Fuck You.
I also presumed he was too intelligent a politician to to what he did next, i.e. try and sell this piece of shit as some great Reformation. But he went ahead and did exactly that. Dunno why. Cause he thinks we are all stupid?
I hope the metropolitan remainers are looking forwards to the mansion rax, as Corbyn wins the next election.
It's the Tory Leavers who will be voting for him, apparently.
No Tory Leavers are going to vote for Corbyn, they may vote for UKIP in disgust at Cameron over EUref, much as Labour lefties voted LD in disgust at Blair over Iraq
If the Labour left and Tory leavers vote for Ukip they could accidentally get a few more seats.
The one thing I hope we all learned from last year was hubris is not a good look before the results come in.
onstrous aberration.
After the referendum, your kind will be scraped from the uterus of conservative British politics with wire coat hangers.
If I survived being a Ken Clarke supporter in 2001, I'm sure I'll survive this.
More unites the Tory Party than divides it.
The Tories are in a terrible, horrible place. The opposition is unelectable. The country is in trouble whatever the result next month.
I'llon without rancour.
We love power.
There was a way to fight this referendum without leaving rancour behind.
As for the "We love power" I'm not sure how that squares with EU membership.
If David Cameron had backed Leave, he would have fought exactly the same style of campaign, and those criticising now would be praising him to the rafters.
BUT
You're not stupid. You must have known he was lying, that he was going to back staying in and the renegotiation was for show. Everything that's happened was always going to happen. Intelligent Leavers protesteth too much.
No. I knew he would back REMAIN. But I also thought he was a skilful and clever statesman. I never for one moment believed he would produce such a pitiful and dismal renegotiation - I genuinely (perhaps credulously) believed he would come back with a couple of very serious reforms - given that he had the threat of Brexit, to aim at other EU leaders, and given that his party is properly eurosceptic.
And yet he got nothing. He got worse than nothing, he got an insult wrapped in a big Fuck You.
I also presumed he was too intelligent a politician to to what he did next, i.e. try and sell this piece of shit as some great Reformation. But he went ahead and did exactly that. Dunno why. Cause he thinks we are all stupid?
What a dreadful man. Morally squalid. Just awful.
Great summary - I wish it could have a bigger audience than PB.com
@steve_hawkes: Lynton Crosby says Vote Leave should spend less time worrying about TV debates - and more time finding/delivering a clearer/simpler message
Stark_Dawning - I suspect that a great many pensioner conservative voters are not really in danger from Mr Corbyn - and if he reduced the foreign aid budget and spent more on adult care a great number of older people would vote for him. I don't have to work as hard as I do so higher taxes just mean I would work less. Actually, I think Mr Meeks and others should get their wish for a Labour government, one with a big majority. Didn't Healey tax some income at 135%?
I hope the metropolitan remainers are looking forwards to the mansion rax, as Corbyn wins the next election.
It's the Tory Leavers who will be voting for him, apparently.
No Tory Leavers are going to vote for Corbyn, they may vote for UKIP in disgust at Cameron over EUref, much as Labour lefties voted LD in disgust at Blair over Iraq
If the Labour left and Tory leavers vote for Ukip they could accidentally get a few more seats.
The one thing I hope we all learned from last year was hubris is not a good look before the results come in.
onstrous aberration.
After the referendum, your kind will be scraped from the uterus of conservative British politics with wire coat hangers.
If I survived being a Ken Clarke supporter in 2001, I'm sure I'll survive this.
More unites the Tory Party than divides it.
The Tories are in a terrible, horrible place. The opposition is unelectable. The country is in trouble whatever the result next month.
I'llon without rancour.
We love power.
There was a way to fight this referendum without leaving rancour behind.
As for the "We love power" I'm not sure how that squares with EU membership.
If David Cameron had backed Leave, he would have fought exactly the same style of campaign, and those criticising now would be praising him to the rafters.
BUT
You're not stupid. You must have known he was lying, that he was going to back staying in and the renegotiation was for show. Everything that's happened was always going to happen. Intelligent Leavers protesteth too much.
No. I knew he would back REMAIN. But I also thought he was a skilful and clever statesman. I never for one moment believed he would produce such a pitiful and dismal renegotiation - I genuinely (perhaps credulously) believed he would come back with a couple of very serious reforms - given that he had the threat of Brexit, to aim at other EU leaders, and given that his party is properly eurosceptic.
And yet he got nothing. He got worse than nothing, he got an insult wrapped in a big Fuck You.
I also presumed he was too intelligent a politician to to what he did next, i.e. try and sell this piece of shit as some great Reformation. But he went ahead and did exactly that. Dunno why. Cause he thinks we are all stupid?
What a dreadful man. Morally squalid. Just awful.
Great summary - I wish it could have a bigger audience than PB.com
I hope the metropolitan remainers are looking forwards to the mansion rax, as Corbyn wins the next election.
It's the Tory Leavers who will be voting for him, apparently.
No Tory Leavers are going to vote for Corbyn, they may vote for UKIP in disgust at Cameron over EUref, much as Labour lefties voted LD in disgust at Blair over Iraq
If the Labour left and Tory leavers vote for Ukip they could accidentally get a few more seats.
Yes, 2020 could be UKIP's year!
Could be much better than 2015... But that isn't saying a great deal.
ICM make themselves look like idiots by running an online poll and a telephone poll simultaneously. Haven't they got the wherewithal, after so many decades of polling, to assess reliabilities on the basis of means of communication, demographics and other considerations, and to make a single prediction on the basis of all the data they collect from people sampled at a given time? Why not go the whole hog and quote two sets of figures, one for people who responded between 6pm and midnight and another for those who answered between midnight and 6pm? Maybe there's a significant difference.
After the referendum, your kind will be scraped from the uterus of conservative British politics with wire coat hangers.
If I survived being a Ken Clarke supporter in 2001, I'm sure I'll survive this.
More unites the Tory Party than divides it.
The Tories are in a terrible, horrible place. The opposition is unelectable. The country is in trouble whatever the result next month.
I'llon without rancour.
We love power.
There was a way to fight this referendum without leaving rancour behind.
As for the "We love power" I'm not sure how that squares with EU membership.
If David Cameron had backed Leave, he would have fought exactly the same style of campaign, and those criticising now would be praising him to the rafters.
BUT
I also presumed he was too intelligent a politician to to what he did next, i.e. try and sell this piece of shit as some great Reformation. But he went ahead and did exactly that. Dunno why. Cause he thinks we are all stupid?
What I've noticed since GE 2015 is PB Tories mistaking an unexpected victory for a big victory.
Perhaps similarly, that victory went to Cameron's head. He thought he was a much more popular and skilful politician than he really is, as the last few weeks have borne out.
I hope the metropolitan remainers are looking forwards to the mansion rax, as Corbyn wins the next election.
It's the Tory Leavers who will be voting for him, apparently.
No Tory Leavers are going to vote for Corbyn, they may vote for UKIP in disgust at Cameron over EUref, much as Labour lefties voted LD in disgust at Blair over Iraq
If the Labour left and Tory leavers vote for Ukip they could accidentally get a few more seats.
Yes, 2020 could be UKIP's year!
Could be much better than 2015... But that isn't saying a great deal.
Could be worse too. I would not be surprised with zero UKIP MPs in 2020 (if not before).
"Growing fears over Brexit hit CBI growth forecasts" and "Brexit looms over British Land Results" are the headlines over two relatively minor stories on the Times Online front page. The Times of course is essentially pro Remain but if as TSE gleefully proclaims IN is now at 74% at Betfair how does this square up with these kind of reports. If Remain is a dead cert surely these are unacceptably political headlines on an economic story with no basis in fact or is the real truth that with even the outlier ORB poll only showing a margin of those certain to vote standing at only 53:47 for Remain these remain very worrying times for Dave & Co.
After the referendum, your kind will be scraped from the uterus of conservative British politics with wire coat hangers.
If I survived being a Ken Clarke supporter in 2001, I'm sure I'll survive this.
More unites the Tory Party than divides it.
The Tories are in a terrible, horrible place. The opposition is unelectable. The country is in trouble whatever the result next month.
I'llon without rancour.
We love power.
There was a way to fight this referendum without leaving rancour behind.
As for the "We love power" I'm not sure how that squares with EU membership.
If David Cameron had backed Leave, he would have fought exactly the same style of campaign, and those criticising now would be praising him to the rafters.
BUT
I also presumed he was too intelligent a politician to to what he did next, i.e. try and sell this piece of shit as some great Reformation. But he went ahead and did exactly that. Dunno why. Cause he thinks we are all stupid?
What I've noticed since GE 2015 is PB Tories mistaking an unexpected victory for a big victory.
Perhaps similarly, that victory went to Cameron's head. He thought he was a much more popular and skilful politician than he really is, as the last few weeks have borne out.
Winning parties thinking that they have this big mandate is the blindspot of politicians in democracies the world over. The Democrats and Republicans take turns showing how stupidly they can overplay their election victories.
Of course, each party is a ragbag of promissory notes. Which one, if any, actually won the election for them is anyone's guess. Or more likely, they didn't win at all, the other party lost.
The remain Tory supporters on here think this will be forgotten long after the referendum.
When labour get a new vote friendly leader and the Remain tories on here or round the country start sounding out that you can't let labour win like when miliband was looking good in the polls.
That will be the day these people find out the tories have lost and will not be trusted for a very long time and can go whistle in the wind.
I won't trust a tory leader for a very long time after Fake Dave.
Yes. It will probably take an economic crisis (which all Labour governments eventually end up with) for me to vote Conservative again... I think that will be many years into the future.
We're not out of the last crisis yet. We still have emergency interest rates, y'know. Greece is ready to go pop. Again. And I'm hearing bad things about Italian banking.
A Monday morning visit to the newly re-opened Lea Bridge station on the Stratford to Tottenham line enabled me to maintain my achievement of visiting every station on the London Oystercard Map.
After the referendum, your kind will be scraped from the uterus of conservative British politics with wire coat hangers.
If I survived being a Ken Clarke supporter in 2001, I'm sure I'll survive this.
More unites the Tory Party than divides it.
The Tories are in a terrible, horrible place. The opposition is unelectable. The country is in trouble whatever the result next month.
I'llon without rancour.
We love power.
There was a way to fight this referendum without leaving rancour behind.
As for the "We love power" I'm not sure how that squares with EU membership.
If David Cameron had backed Leave, he would have fought exactly the same style of campaign, and those criticising now would be praising him to the rafters.
BUT
I also presumed he was too intelligent a politician to to what he did next, i.e. try and sell this piece of shit as some great Reformation. But he went ahead and did exactly that. Dunno why. Cause he thinks we are all stupid?
What I've noticed since GE 2015 is PB Tories mistaking an unexpected victory for a big victory.
Perhaps similarly, that victory went to Cameron's head. He thought he was a much more popular and skilful politician than he really is, as the last few weeks have borne out.
He won a smaller majority than John "Maastricht" Major did in 1992...
After the referendum, your kind will be scraped from the uterus of conservative British politics with wire coat hangers.
If I survived being a Ken Clarke supporter in 2001, I'm sure I'll survive this.
More unites the Tory Party than divides it.
The Tories are in a terrible, horrible place. The opposition is unelectable. The country is in trouble whatever the result next month.
I'llon without rancour.
We love power.
There was a way to fight this referendum without leaving rancour behind.
As for the "We love power" I'm not sure how that squares with EU membership.
If David Cameron had backed Leave, he would have fought exactly the same style of campaign, and those criticising now would be praising him to the rafters.
BUT
I also presumed he was too intelligent a politician to to what he did next, i.e. try and sell this piece of shit as some great Reformation. But he went ahead and did exactly that. Dunno why. Cause he thinks we are all stupid?
What I've noticed since GE 2015 is PB Tories mistaking an unexpected victory for a big victory.
Perhaps similarly, that victory went to Cameron's head. He thought he was a much more popular and skilful politician than he really is, as the last few weeks have borne out.
Winning parties thinking that they have this big mandate is the blindspot of politicians in democracies the world over. The Democrats and Republicans take turns showing how stupidly they can overplay their election victories.
Of course, each party is a ragbag of promissory notes. Which one, if any, actually won the election for them is anyone's guess. Or more likely, they didn't win at all, the other party lost.
GEs 2005 and 2015 (Westminster) were both skinny mandates for the Gov't in terms of the electoral vote. Whilst 50% is too big an ask, 40+% shows genuine confidence to my mind.
With some trepidation after 10 years of lurking I enter the fray...that said its late at night so hopefully not too many people around!!!!
My qualitative observation of phone polls over the last 20 plus years is that they are always "skewed" by the "embarrassment factor" I.e. "Would I really want my friends to know I said that".
This was historically the "shy Tory" vote which the pollsters have constantly tried to address.
My suspicion is that there is much more likely to be a shy leave mentality particularly amongst the middle classes than a shy remain. So people will quite happily say they are conservative but not say they are a leaver.
So my view is that the online polls are more likely to be right than the telephone polls albeit the triangulation is no doubt somewhere in between the two.
That said I would still expect a last minute break for certainty so remain should pick up more late decides by a margin than leave.
We of course will only know once we get to 24th June!
All seems to point in my opinion to a narrow remain win with the majority of conservative voters wanting to leave which as others on this thread and elsewhere have noted is when it really will get quite unpleasant for Cameron and Co no doubt fanned by Donald Trump who is patently no fan of Cameron!
"Growing fears over Brexit hit CBI growth forecasts" and "Brexit looms over British Land Results" are the headlines over two relatively minor stories on the Times Online front page. The Times of course is essentially pro Remain but if as TSE gleefully proclaims IN is now at 74% at Betfair how does this square up with these kind of reports. If Remain is a dead cert surely these are unacceptably political headlines on an economic story with no basis in fact or is the real truth that with even the outlier ORB poll only showing a margin of those certain to vote standing at only 53:47 for Remain these remain very worrying times for Dave & Co.
With some trepidation after 10 years of lurking I enter the fray...that said its late at night so hopefully not too many people around!!!!
My qualitative observation of phone polls over the last 20 plus years is that they are always "skewed" by the "embarrassment factor" I.e. "Would I really want my friends to know I said that".
This was historically the "shy Tory" vote which the pollsters have constantly tried to address.
My suspicion is that there is much more likely to be a shy leave mentality particularly amongst the middle classes than a shy remain. So people will quite happily say they are conservative but not say they are a leaver.
So my view is that the online polls are more likely to be right than the telephone polls albeit the triangulation is no doubt somewhere in between the two.
That said I would still expect a last minute break for certainty so remain should pick up more late decides by a margin than leave.
We of course will only know once we get to 24th June!
All seems to point in my opinion to a narrow remain win with the majority of conservative voters wanting to leave which as others on this thread and elsewhere have noted is when it really will get quite unpleasant for Cameron and Co no doubt fanned by Donald Trump who is patently no fan of Cameron!
Welcome to PB
Indeed, welcome to de-lurking. I, too, think there has to be a shy Leave vote out there, particularly given how virulent the attacks have been from the Remain side on the intellect of those who would leave. Maybe some of the don't knows are in fact avoiding admitting to being leave
The more I look at Clinton - the more I see a swivel-eyed nutcase and a looming electoral disaster...
When will she realise her Kim Jong-Un wardrobe is not an asset, for example?
Not sure about the swivel-eyed nutcase moniker, but she is a very poor and vulnerable candidate running as the Establishment candidate in a very anti-Establishment cycle.
EXCLUSIVE: David Cameron's EU sham exposed: Leaked letter reveals PM hatched anti-Brexit plot ... while still telling voters he could campaign to leave
Good oh! Good old fashioned (very old fashioned as its heterosexual) sex scandal - and this time its not the Tories, but the Tartan Tories SNP:
The English rose leaving SNP marriages in tatters: Two high-profile MPs leave their wives after they BOTH have affair with blonde writer 'who thinks Scottish Nationalists are like the Mujahideen revolutionaries of British politicians’
Good oh! Good old fashioned (very old fashioned as its heterosexual) sex scandal - and this time its not the Tories, but the Tartan Tories SNP:
The English rose leaving SNP marriages in tatters: Two high-profile MPs leave their wives after they BOTH have affair with blonde writer 'who thinks Scottish Nationalists are like the Mujahideen revolutionaries of British politicians’
Pains me to admit it as a card-carrying PB Tory, but I've grown a bit fond of Steward Hosie in recent years.
These matters are always a shame for all those involved. Had they not been politicians, none of us would have been any the wiser (although it would have been gossip down the local. I suppose).
The more I look at Clinton - the more I see a swivel-eyed nutcase and a looming electoral disaster...
When will she realise her Kim Jong-Un wardrobe is not an asset, for example?
Not sure about the swivel-eyed nutcase moniker, but she is a very poor and vulnerable candidate running as the Establishment candidate in a very anti-Establishment cycle.
Given the alternative, I found this depressing reading:
Good oh! Good old fashioned (very old fashioned as its heterosexual) sex scandal - and this time its not the Tories, but the Tartan Tories SNP:
The English rose leaving SNP marriages in tatters: Two high-profile MPs leave their wives after they BOTH have affair with blonde writer 'who thinks Scottish Nationalists are like the Mujahideen revolutionaries of British politicians’
Good oh! Good old fashioned (very old fashioned as its heterosexual) sex scandal - and this time its not the Tories, but the Tartan Tories SNP:
The English rose leaving SNP marriages in tatters: Two high-profile MPs leave their wives after they BOTH have affair with blonde writer 'who thinks Scottish Nationalists are like the Mujahideen revolutionaries of British politicians’
Good oh! Good old fashioned (very old fashioned as its heterosexual) sex scandal - and this time its not the Tories, but the Tartan Tories SNP:
The English rose leaving SNP marriages in tatters: Two high-profile MPs leave their wives after they BOTH have affair with blonde writer 'who thinks Scottish Nationalists are like the Mujahideen revolutionaries of British politicians’
These matters are always a shame for all those involved. Had they not been politicians, none of us would have been any the wiser (although it would have been gossip down the local. I suppose).
Of course its difficult for the families involved (tho I have less sympathy for MacNeil, 'who has form'), but it also plays to the narrative of 'SNP Go Wild in Westminster' which isn't a good look in anyone's book.....
The more I look at Clinton - the more I see a swivel-eyed nutcase and a looming electoral disaster...
When will she realise her Kim Jong-Un wardrobe is not an asset, for example?
Not sure about the swivel-eyed nutcase moniker, but she is a very poor and vulnerable candidate running as the Establishment candidate in a very anti-Establishment cycle.
Given the alternative, I found this depressing reading:
"Growing fears over Brexit hit CBI growth forecasts" and "Brexit looms over British Land Results" are the headlines over two relatively minor stories on the Times Online front page. The Times of course is essentially pro Remain but if as TSE gleefully proclaims IN is now at 74% at Betfair how does this square up with these kind of reports. If Remain is a dead cert surely these are unacceptably political headlines on an economic story with no basis in fact or is the real truth that with even the outlier ORB poll only showing a margin of those certain to vote standing at only 53:47 for Remain these remain very worrying times for Dave & Co.
The Times is unacceptably political? Well I never
Yes but why is Brexit being blamed by such organisations if things are really going so swimmingly well for Remain? So is it political by the Times or a convenient cover for wider problems not Brexit related. Or are Remain more worried than they make out?
Comments
My qualitative observation of phone polls over the last 20 plus years is that they are always "skewed" by the "embarrassment factor" I.e. "Would I really want my friends to know I said that".
This was historically the "shy Tory" vote which the pollsters have constantly tried to address.
My suspicion is that there is much more likely to be a shy leave mentality particularly amongst the middle classes than a shy remain. So people will quite happily say they are conservative but not say they are a leaver.
So my view is that the online polls are more likely to be right than the telephone polls albeit the triangulation is no doubt somewhere in between the two.
That said I would still expect a last minute break for certainty so remain should pick up more late decides by a margin than leave.
We of course will only know once we get to 24th June!
All seems to point in my opinion to a narrow remain win with the majority of conservative voters wanting to leave which as others on this thread and elsewhere have noted is when it really will get quite unpleasant for Cameron and Co no doubt fanned by Donald Trump who is patently no fan of Cameron!
I always expected (from the "cast iron" Lisbon fiasco) that Cameron probably would campaign to stay in the EU come any referendum but, perhaps foolishly, I took him at his word when he promised a meaningful "renegotiation" of our relationship with the EU, rather than the embarrassing fiasco of a "deal" we ended up with (notice how even Cameron and REMAIN themselves have stopped mentioning the renegotiation... Even they are embarrassed about it)
But the final straw was Obama flying in to threaten me in my own country. That's when they crossed the Rubicon to the point of no return for me.
The good news is I've just sent the wife of a deceased Nigerian oil minister my bank account details. Tomorrow $10 million will be winging it's way to me.
Boom, boom
That's when they crossed the Rubicon to the point of no return for me.
On Cameron, that and his quotes pre announcing his intention to remain are going to make his debate difficult.
The Tory Party always adapts and changes to fit what the voters wants. That's why generally they've been so successful many centuries.
My hope is, whatever the result on June the 23rd, the party stops drinking the kool aid, and respects the will of the people and moves on without rancour.
We love power.
Suffice to say I'll be doing something different in 2020...
As for the "We love power" I'm not sure how that squares with EU membership.
And the majority of the country will look on bemused.
When labour get a new vote friendly leader and the Remain tories on here or round the country start sounding out that you can't let labour win like when miliband was looking good in the polls.
That will be the day these people find out the tories have lost and will not be trusted for a very long time and can go whistle in the wind.
I won't trust a tory leader for a very long time after Fake Dave.
It also gets worse, because unlike the Scotland indy ref there was vanishingly small chance of a power grab from Westminster after an In vote whereas the same isn't true of the EU, so if remain win, there would be hell to pay all over again. See? It's a sort of well built win lose lose.
https://twitter.com/RogerV52/status/732321303479373824
I'm voting LEAVE, fwiw.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3486917/We-ll-invest-UK-quit-EU-says-super-rich-Norway.html
Perhaps similarly, that victory went to Cameron's head. He thought he was a much more popular and skilful politician than he really is, as the last few weeks have borne out.
Of course, each party is a ragbag of promissory notes. Which one, if any, actually won the election for them is anyone's guess. Or more likely, they didn't win at all, the other party lost.
Greece is ready to go pop. Again.
And I'm hearing bad things about Italian banking.
A Monday morning visit to the newly re-opened Lea Bridge station on the Stratford to Tottenham line enabled me to maintain my achievement of visiting every station on the London Oystercard Map.
Beat that @SeanT
Though irony of ironies, the copy of the Oystercard Map wall-mounted at the station didn't actually show Lea Bridge
When will she realise her Kim Jong-Un wardrobe is not an asset, for example?
Not sure about the swivel-eyed nutcase moniker, but she is a very poor and vulnerable candidate running as the Establishment candidate in a very anti-Establishment cycle.
EXCLUSIVE: David Cameron's EU sham exposed: Leaked letter reveals PM hatched anti-Brexit plot ... while still telling voters he could campaign to leave
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3593784/David-Cameron-s-EU-sham-exposed-Leaked-letter-reveals-PM-hatched-anti-Brexit-plot-telling-voters-campaign-leave.html#ixzz48sfNKMKG
The English rose leaving SNP marriages in tatters: Two high-profile MPs leave their wives after they BOTH have affair with blonde writer 'who thinks Scottish Nationalists are like the Mujahideen revolutionaries of British politicians’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3593617/Two-MPs-marriages-tatters-affairs-blonde-writer-High-profile-SNP-figures-split-wives-caught-love-triangle.html
These matters are always a shame for all those involved. Had they not been politicians, none of us would have been any the wiser (although it would have been gossip down the local. I suppose).
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2713591/Hillary-told-one-agent-f-suit-looked-cheap-Secret-Service-agents-say-guarding-former-First-Lady-wasthe-worst-form-punishment-author-reveals-explosive-new-book.html
You can tell a lot about a leader in how they treat their subordinates - Thatcher genuinely solicitous and unfailingly polite, Brown a bullying thug.
Meanwhile Hosie has been tipped to lead Nicola's 'Independence Drive Conversation this summer:
https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/3898/snp-s-summer-of-independence-to-be-led-by-stewart-hosie