Political Polls @PpollingNumbers 3h3 hours ago Utah General Election:
Trump 43% (+5 since Apr) Clinton 30% (-8) Undecided 26
Romney won Utah by 44% in 2012 so while Trump should now win it Hillary is still doing significantly better than Obama did there and Trump worse than Romney, Mormons are holding their noses to vote for him
I'm entertained that Remain loved voters thinking it was £4300pa worse off now, but objecting to Leave pointing out £200bn pa is the total EU market today - can't have it both ways. And neither stands up as a forecast from Wrong Next Month Osborne.
Interesting that the referendum was shunted down the order on the Six O'Clock News this evening. Perhaps the BBC think that the more it is talked about, the more people are inclined to vote Leave.
Political Polls @PpollingNumbers 3h3 hours ago Utah General Election:
Trump 43% (+5 since Apr) Clinton 30% (-8) Undecided 26
Romney won Utah by 44% in 2012 so while Trump should now win it Hillary is still doing significantly better than Obama did there and Trump worse than Romney, Mormons are holding their noses to vote for him
Utah wins for the GOP bounce between 28 and 44%. Whilst Trump might duck under that it's not a particularly representative or needed state for either party to under/overperform in (V Safe GOP)
I think Trump will do well in New York, by recent historical standards - again it means diddly squat ! (Safe DEM)
Rather farcical comment in the last thread by Londonbob hailing a Trump lead in Utah as confirmation he was a dead cert for the presidency. Only 1 GOP nominee since WW2 has lost Utah, Barry Goldwater and he won just 6 states. To win Trump should be winning Utah comfortably
Oh FFS - I'm sick of Goldwater comparisons. It's 50yrs ago and a totally different media/political background.
I must have missed your "FFS" comparison of Boris and EU/Hitler who departed Berlin Central 71 years ago ....
Had a lovely day on the Isle of Skye Went to a farm shop and saw canned turnips for the first time ever Couldn't help but think of malc
Have you popped into Talisker yet?
We went to talisker but the best place was the oyster she'd just behind it Fresh cooked scallops for six quid and really fresh couldn't recommend it enough
Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?
IIRC they call mobile and landlines.
Fair enough. On the other point lots of people though will not answer an unknown number. These might include people avoiding creditors but they also include the naturally suspicious. Trump is a naturally suspicious individual and I suspect such people are drawn to his kind of anti establishment politics and by implication the Leave side.
Political Polls @PpollingNumbers 3h3 hours ago Utah General Election:
Trump 43% (+5 since Apr) Clinton 30% (-8) Undecided 26
Romney won Utah by 44% in 2012 so while Trump should now win it Hillary is still doing significantly better than Obama did there and Trump worse than Romney, Mormons are holding their noses to vote for him
The only thing I can see as usual that causes the difference between Online and Phone polls are the reaction of the over 65's of age.
In the ICM Phone poll over 65's are in favour of Remain, in the ICM Online poll they are 2-1 in favour of Leave.
The entire difference is caused by that one category and it's consistent since the start.
That is a very interesting find.
If validated I am quite astonished.
Pensioners are the most brexit minded demographic I have come across. I have to wonder sediously what is going on in phone polls if their oaps are remainers in the majority.
I can only think that they have oversampled genteel types that will do what that nice Mr Cameron suggests.
Had a lovely day on the Isle of Skye Went to a farm shop and saw canned turnips for the first time ever Couldn't help but think of malc
Have you popped into Talisker yet?
We went to talisker but the best place was the oyster she'd just behind it Fresh cooked scallops for six quid and really fresh couldn't recommend it enough
Sounds superb. We were up there a few years ago. Went to the Three Chimneys. A lovely evening. Then my missus was up all night with food poisoning from a dodgy crustacean. Bloody Scots.
Political Polls @PpollingNumbers 3h3 hours ago Utah General Election:
Trump 43% (+5 since Apr) Clinton 30% (-8) Undecided 26
Romney won Utah by 44% in 2012 so while Trump should now win it Hillary is still doing significantly better than Obama did there and Trump worse than Romney, Mormons are holding their noses to vote for him
More FFS, Romney's a Mormon. What do you expect?
Even McCain won it by 28% in 2008
Romney isn't exactly endorsing Trump though, is he?
Political Polls @PpollingNumbers 3h3 hours ago Utah General Election:
Trump 43% (+5 since Apr) Clinton 30% (-8) Undecided 26
Romney won Utah by 44% in 2012 so while Trump should now win it Hillary is still doing significantly better than Obama did there and Trump worse than Romney, Mormons are holding their noses to vote for him
Utah wins for the GOP bounce between 28 and 44%. Whilst Trump might duck under that it's not a particularly representative or needed state for either party to under/overperform in (V Safe GOP)
I think Trump will do well in New York, by recent historical standards - again it means diddly squat ! (Safe DEM)
Indeed the key states are Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Colorado, NC and Ohio
Had a lovely day on the Isle of Skye Went to a farm shop and saw canned turnips for the first time ever Couldn't help but think of malc
Have you popped into Talisker yet?
We went to talisker but the best place was the oyster she'd just behind it Fresh cooked scallops for six quid and really fresh couldn't recommend it enough
Sounds superb. We were up there a few years ago. Went to the Three Chimneys. A lovely evening. Then my missus was up all night with food poisoning from a dodgy crustacean. Bloody Scots.
Currently I'm staying in Fort Augustus Better broadband up here in the middle of nowhere than in my village which is twelve miles south of Birmingham Bloody useless Tories !
Political Polls @PpollingNumbers 3h3 hours ago Utah General Election:
Trump 43% (+5 since Apr) Clinton 30% (-8) Undecided 26
Romney won Utah by 44% in 2012 so while Trump should now win it Hillary is still doing significantly better than Obama did there and Trump worse than Romney, Mormons are holding their noses to vote for him
More FFS, Romney's a Mormon. What do you expect?
Even McCain won it by 28% in 2008
Romney isn't exactly endorsing Trump though, is he?
Regardless Trump should not be losing over half McCain's lead
Had a lovely day on the Isle of Skye Went to a farm shop and saw canned turnips for the first time ever Couldn't help but think of malc
Have you popped into Talisker yet?
We went to talisker but the best place was the oyster she'd just behind it Fresh cooked scallops for six quid and really fresh couldn't recommend it enough
Sounds superb. We were up there a few years ago. Went to the Three Chimneys. A lovely evening. Then my missus was up all night with food poisoning from a dodgy crustacean. Bloody Scots.
Currently I'm staying in Fort Augustus Better broadband up here in the middle of nowhere than in my village which is twelve miles south of Birmingham Bloody useless Tories !
LOL :-)
IIt's stunning up there, isn't it? The drive through Glencoe into Fort William has to be among the most beautiful anywhere on earth.
Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?
IIRC they call mobile and landlines.
Fair enough. On the other point lots of people though will not answer an unknown number. These might include people avoiding creditors but they also include the naturally suspicious. Trump is a naturally suspicious individual and I suspect such people are drawn to his kind of anti establishment politics and by implication the Leave side.
This has long been my contention. I know nobody at all who answers a withheld number or an 08 number. Most people I know won't even answer a number they don't recognise. I suspect caller ID is playing havoc with phone polling.
Political Polls @PpollingNumbers 3h3 hours ago Utah General Election:
Trump 43% (+5 since Apr) Clinton 30% (-8) Undecided 26
Romney won Utah by 44% in 2012 so while Trump should now win it Hillary is still doing significantly better than Obama did there and Trump worse than Romney, Mormons are holding their noses to vote for him
More FFS, Romney's a Mormon. What do you expect?
Even McCain won it by 28% in 2008
The Mormons should be pretty relaxed about Trump and his three wives.
Had a lovely day on the Isle of Skye Went to a farm shop and saw canned turnips for the first time ever Couldn't help but think of malc
Have you popped into Talisker yet?
We went to talisker but the best place was the oyster she'd just behind it Fresh cooked scallops for six quid and really fresh couldn't recommend it enough
Sounds superb. We were up there a few years ago. Went to the Three Chimneys. A lovely evening. Then my missus was up all night with food poisoning from a dodgy crustacean. Bloody Scots.
Currently I'm staying in Fort Augustus Better broadband up here in the middle of nowhere than in my village which is twelve miles south of Birmingham Bloody useless Tories !
LOL :-)
IIt's stunning up there, isn't it? The drive through Glencoe into Fort William has to be among the most beautiful anywhere on earth.
Yes absolutely
We got a glorious day on Saturday driving up here cloudless blue sky , warm and fantastic scenery
The only thing I can see as usual that causes the difference between Online and Phone polls are the reaction of the over 65's of age.
In the ICM Phone poll over 65's are in favour of Remain, in the ICM Online poll they are 2-1 in favour of Leave.
The entire difference is caused by that one category and it's consistent since the start.
That is a very interesting find.
If validated I am quite astonished.
Pensioners are the most brexit minded demographic I have come across. I have to wonder sediously what is going on in phone polls if their oaps are remainers in the majority.
I can only think that they have oversampled genteel types that will do what that nice Mr Cameron suggests.
Maybe instead you have undersampled them in your coming-acrossing?
Had a lovely day on the Isle of Skye Went to a farm shop and saw canned turnips for the first time ever Couldn't help but think of malc
Have you popped into Talisker yet?
We went to talisker but the best place was the oyster she'd just behind it Fresh cooked scallops for six quid and really fresh couldn't recommend it enough
Sounds superb. We were up there a few years ago. Went to the Three Chimneys. A lovely evening. Then my missus was up all night with food poisoning from a dodgy crustacean. Bloody Scots.
Currently I'm staying in Fort Augustus Better broadband up here in the middle of nowhere than in my village which is twelve miles south of Birmingham Bloody useless Tories !
LOL :-)
IIt's stunning up there, isn't it? The drive through Glencoe into Fort William has to be among the most beautiful anywhere on earth.
Yes absolutely
We got a glorious day on Saturday driving up here cloudless blue sky , warm and fantastic scenery
Had a lovely day on the Isle of Skye Went to a farm shop and saw canned turnips for the first time ever Couldn't help but think of malc
Have you popped into Talisker yet?
We went to talisker but the best place was the oyster she'd just behind it Fresh cooked scallops for six quid and really fresh couldn't recommend it enough
Sounds superb. We were up there a few years ago. Went to the Three Chimneys. A lovely evening. Then my missus was up all night with food poisoning from a dodgy crustacean. Bloody Scots.
Currently I'm staying in Fort Augustus Better broadband up here in the middle of nowhere than in my village which is twelve miles south of Birmingham Bloody useless Tories !
LOL :-)
IIt's stunning up there, isn't it? The drive through Glencoe into Fort William has to be among the most beautiful anywhere on earth.
Yes absolutely
We got a glorious day on Saturday driving up here cloudless blue sky , warm and fantastic scenery
Warwickshire's looking pretty good too, mind ;-)
Yes may is a good month We have loads of bluebell woods round us, always fun to walk through
The only thing I can see as usual that causes the difference between Online and Phone polls are the reaction of the over 65's of age.
In the ICM Phone poll over 65's are in favour of Remain, in the ICM Online poll they are 2-1 in favour of Leave.
The entire difference is caused by that one category and it's consistent since the start.
That is a very interesting find.
If validated I am quite astonished.
Pensioners are the most brexit minded demographic I have come across. I have to wonder sediously what is going on in phone polls if their oaps are remainers in the majority.
I can only think that they have oversampled genteel types that will do what that nice Mr Cameron suggests.
Maybe instead you have undersampled them in your coming-acrossing?
It is possible. But everywhere I read that the older people are the more pro Brexit they are.
A gap like that only appearing in a single demographic looks unprecedented to me. Top marks to Speedy for spotting it.
Rather farcical comment in the last thread by Londonbob hailing a Trump lead in Utah as confirmation he was a dead cert for the presidency. Only 1 GOP nominee since WW2 has lost Utah, Barry Goldwater and he won just 6 states. To win Trump should be winning Utah comfortably
Oh FFS - I'm sick of Goldwater comparisons. It's 50yrs ago and a totally different media/political background.
I must have missed your "FFS" comparison of Boris and EU/Hitler who departed Berlin Central 71 years ago ....
Was that before or after he went mad and has anyone told Ken?
The only thing I can see as usual that causes the difference between Online and Phone polls are the reaction of the over 65's of age.
In the ICM Phone poll over 65's are in favour of Remain, in the ICM Online poll they are 2-1 in favour of Leave.
The entire difference is caused by that one category and it's consistent since the start.
That is a very interesting find.
If validated I am quite astonished.
Pensioners are the most brexit minded demographic I have come across. I have to wonder sediously what is going on in phone polls if their oaps are remainers in the majority.
I can only think that they have oversampled genteel types that will do what that nice Mr Cameron suggests.
Maybe instead you have undersampled them in your coming-acrossing?
It is possible. But everywhere I read that the older people are the more pro Brexit they are.
A gap like that only appearing in a single demographic looks unprecedented to me. Top marks to Speedy for spotting it.
The chart I linked to FPT clearly showed undecided and Leave begins at 43yrs old.
There are increasing signs that the EU may crack and fall apart with or without our Brexit. Greater opposition to immigrants and immigration from Eastern Europe reported on BBC news tonight: and the so called liberals are getting jittery in Germany.
Rather farcical comment in the last thread by Londonbob hailing a Trump lead in Utah as confirmation he was a dead cert for the presidency. Only 1 GOP nominee since WW2 has lost Utah, Barry Goldwater and he won just 6 states. To win Trump should be winning Utah comfortably
Oh FFS - I'm sick of Goldwater comparisons. It's 50yrs ago and a totally different media/political background.
I must have missed your "FFS" comparison of Boris and EU/Hitler who departed Berlin Central 71 years ago ....
Was that before or after he went mad and has anyone told Ken?
Had a lovely day on the Isle of Skye Went to a farm shop and saw canned turnips for the first time ever Couldn't help but think of malc
Have you popped into Talisker yet?
We went to talisker but the best place was the oyster she'd just behind it Fresh cooked scallops for six quid and really fresh couldn't recommend it enough
Sounds superb. We were up there a few years ago. Went to the Three Chimneys. A lovely evening. Then my missus was up all night with food poisoning from a dodgy crustacean. Bloody Scots.
Currently I'm staying in Fort Augustus Better broadband up here in the middle of nowhere than in my village which is twelve miles south of Birmingham Bloody useless Tories !
LOL :-)
IIt's stunning up there, isn't it? The drive through Glencoe into Fort William has to be among the most beautiful anywhere on earth.
Yes absolutely
We got a glorious day on Saturday driving up here cloudless blue sky , warm and fantastic scenery
Warwickshire's looking pretty good too, mind ;-)
I'm down in Cornwall writing a Times travel piece. Pretty nice here, too
Rather farcical comment in the last thread by Londonbob hailing a Trump lead in Utah as confirmation he was a dead cert for the presidency. Only 1 GOP nominee since WW2 has lost Utah, Barry Goldwater and he won just 6 states. To win Trump should be winning Utah comfortably
Oh FFS - I'm sick of Goldwater comparisons. It's 50yrs ago and a totally different media/political background.
I must have missed your "FFS" comparison of Boris and EU/Hitler who departed Berlin Central 71 years ago ....
Was that before or after he went mad and has anyone told Ken?
Boris has gone mad .... who knew? ....
Quite though it may have been an effective dead cat to keep Carney off the headlines.
Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?
IIRC they call mobile and landlines.
Fair enough. On the other point lots of people though will not answer an unknown number. These might include people avoiding creditors but they also include the naturally suspicious. Trump is a naturally suspicious individual and I suspect such people are drawn to his kind of anti establishment politics and by implication the Leave side.
This has long been my contention. I know nobody at all who answers a withheld number or an 08 number. Most people I know won't even answer a number they don't recognise. I suspect caller ID is playing havoc with phone polling.
I am with you on this one, Mr Tyndall. When the 'phone rings, mobile or landline I look at the number and if I don't recognise it then I don't answer. All of my friends have the same attitude to telephone calls. Someone I don't know ringing me up is someone trying to steal my time and they can f**k right off.
@AlanBrooke Hope you have a good leave and don't over sample at the distilleries
Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?
IIRC they call mobile and landlines.
Fair enough. On the other point lots of people though will not answer an unknown number. These might include people avoiding creditors but they also include the naturally suspicious. Trump is a naturally suspicious individual and I suspect such people are drawn to his kind of anti establishment politics and by implication the Leave side.
This has long been my contention. I know nobody at all who answers a withheld number or an 08 number. Most people I know won't even answer a number they don't recognise. I suspect caller ID is playing havoc with phone polling.
I am with you on this one, Mr Tyndall. When the 'phone rings, mobile or landline I look at the number and if I don't recognise it then I don't answer. All of my friends have the same attitude to telephone calls. Someone I don't know ringing me up is someone trying to steal my time and they can f**k right off.
@AlanBrooke Hope you have a good leave and don't over sample at the distilleries
I hope you caught my Limerick for you before I left
Rather farcical comment in the last thread by Londonbob hailing a Trump lead in Utah as confirmation he was a dead cert for the presidency. Only 1 GOP nominee since WW2 has lost Utah, Barry Goldwater and he won just 6 states. To win Trump should be winning Utah comfortably
Oh FFS - I'm sick of Goldwater comparisons. It's 50yrs ago and a totally different media/political background.
I must have missed your "FFS" comparison of Boris and EU/Hitler who departed Berlin Central 71 years ago ....
Was that before or after he went mad and has anyone told Ken?
Boris has gone mad .... who knew? ....
Quite though it may have been an effective dead cat to keep Carney off the headlines.
The only person going "mad" is JackW as his ARSE keeps farting out it's Remaining smells.
Rather farcical comment in the last thread by Londonbob hailing a Trump lead in Utah as confirmation he was a dead cert for the presidency. Only 1 GOP nominee since WW2 has lost Utah, Barry Goldwater and he won just 6 states. To win Trump should be winning Utah comfortably
Oh FFS - I'm sick of Goldwater comparisons. It's 50yrs ago and a totally different media/political background.
I must have missed your "FFS" comparison of Boris and EU/Hitler who departed Berlin Central 71 years ago ....
Was that before or after he went mad and has anyone told Ken?
Boris has gone mad .... who knew? ....
Quite though it may have been an effective dead cat to keep Carney off the headlines.
Dead cat and Carney = @Plato nightmare .... best avoided.
There are increasing signs that the EU may crack and fall apart with or without our Brexit. Greater opposition to immigrants and immigration from Eastern Europe reported on BBC news tonight: and the so called liberals are getting jittery in Germany.
Rather farcical comment in the last thread by Londonbob hailing a Trump lead in Utah as confirmation he was a dead cert for the presidency. Only 1 GOP nominee since WW2 has lost Utah, Barry Goldwater and he won just 6 states. To win Trump should be winning Utah comfortably
Oh FFS - I'm sick of Goldwater comparisons. It's 50yrs ago and a totally different media/political background.
I must have missed your "FFS" comparison of Boris and EU/Hitler who departed Berlin Central 71 years ago ....
Was that before or after he went mad and has anyone told Ken?
Boris has gone mad .... who knew? ....
Quite though it may have been an effective dead cat to keep Carney off the headlines.
The only person going "mad" is JackW as his ARSE keeps farting out it's Remaining smells.
My ARSE has plenty of bottom whereas mad bad @MikeK and his 120 UKIP MP's were all fart and no bottom.
Non tariff barriers basically boil down to ignorant Europeans expecting people trying to sell them services to speak their language. So, whereas they speak English and perhaps two or three others, we only speak our own - badly. The number of UK students studying European languages has dropped by 6% over the past three years. Little comfort for remainers believing we can trade with the rest of the world however as the number students studying other languages has dropped by 14% over the same period.
Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?
IIRC they call mobile and landlines.
Not saying I'm representative but I'd probably do an online poll and ignore a phone poll call.
I get called regularly from all sorts of numbers on all sorts of rubbish asking me if I have a spare few minutes.
Invariably, they all call at various (inconvenient) times, take longer to answer than billed, and for precious little personal benefit.
I think PPI callers have made most of us pretty damn resistant to answering the phone to numbers we don't know!
That being said, across Europe (France, Germany, Spain, Greece, and the UK), "insurgent" parties such as UKIP, the FN, PVV, Podemos, etc. tend to score more highly in on-line polls than in telephones ones. (I'm not suggesting these parties have anything in common except they are typically opposed to establishment parties.) Interestingly, the only exception to this rule is Germany, where the AfD does better in telephone polls than in on-line ones.
The telephone pollsters have tended to be better at getting the results of national elections right. But whether that tells us anything useful about the referendum is another question altogether.
Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?
IIRC they call mobile and landlines.
Fair enough. On the other point lots of people though will not answer an unknown number. These might include people avoiding creditors but they also include the naturally suspicious. Trump is a naturally suspicious individual and I suspect such people are drawn to his kind of anti establishment politics and by implication the Leave side.
This has long been my contention. I know nobody at all who answers a withheld number or an 08 number. Most people I know won't even answer a number they don't recognise. I suspect caller ID is playing havoc with phone polling.
I am with you on this one, Mr Tyndall. When the 'phone rings, mobile or landline I look at the number and if I don't recognise it then I don't answer. All of my friends have the same attitude to telephone calls. Someone I don't know ringing me up is someone trying to steal my time and they can f**k right off.
@AlanBrooke Hope you have a good leave and don't over sample at the distilleries
The question, though, is whether people who do answer the phone vote differently from those who don't (otherwise it merely means that sampling is more expensive). One can think of reasons why that might be so - perhaps answerers are more naive, more trusting, more liable to follow Prime Ministerial advice? Or older, lonelier, less busy, quieter and more conservative?
Populist uprising? I can see Trump already filing flight plans for Europe, getting caps embroidered with "Make the EU Great Again", stoking the fires with rehetoric of unlimited immigration, and putting in place plans to build a wall, paid for by Turkey.
18-24 year olds ; 240 - sample 1002 - phone 18-24 year olds ; 186 - sample 2048 - online
Youngsters answer mobiles.
35-64 year olds ; 360 - sample 1002 - phone 35-64 year olds ; 1111 - sample 2048 - online
More mature voters fill out internet surveys possibly due to fewer time constraints than doing 'phone surveys.
The big gaps are 35-64 year old Female C1 and DE.
I'd love to see a comparison at public sector level. The kind of jobs where people daren't let on that they have UKIP views. It's unthinkable that certain views can be expressed in many public sector professions, the kind that are littered with 'right on' Guardian reading, recruited ABs at certain levels.
Just watched The Great Escape...again..difficult to spot the CGI...
I've grown to detest Photoshopped pix and CGI replacing real stunts. I saw a genuine bikini pix of Marilyn, and she'd a bit of a love handle and dimply thigh. It was much better than icing smooth perfection. Every pix I get on Twitter is filtered to death.
You will be shocked what is CG in modern films these days...it is way beyond for "special efffects". Youtube for "VFX breakdown" and you will be shocked how many scenes had VFX work and you never knew. Many movies now use a "digital double" for significant percentage of the movie and set extensions are completely common (large parts of the latest bond movie didn't exist in real life) you never knew.
Pretty much any exterior scene in a TV show will be a green screen virtual set these days.
Digital composition is basically at the seamless stage.
Had a lovely day on the Isle of Skye Went to a farm shop and saw canned turnips for the first time ever Couldn't help but think of malc
Have you popped into Talisker yet?
We went to talisker but the best place was the oyster she'd just behind it Fresh cooked scallops for six quid and really fresh couldn't recommend it enough
Sounds superb. We were up there a few years ago. Went to the Three Chimneys. A lovely evening. Then my missus was up all night with food poisoning from a dodgy crustacean. Bloody Scots.
Currently I'm staying in Fort Augustus Better broadband up here in the middle of nowhere than in my village which is twelve miles south of Birmingham Bloody useless Tories !
LOL :-)
IIt's stunning up there, isn't it? The drive through Glencoe into Fort William has to be among the most beautiful anywhere on earth.
Ever done that trip on the canal? That really is quite something. The beauty of it is you have much more time to sit and admire the view.
There are increasing signs that the EU may crack and fall apart with or without our Brexit. Greater opposition to immigrants and immigration from Eastern Europe reported on BBC news tonight: and the so called liberals are getting jittery in Germany.
PB comments applauds a right-wing German party that says Islam is not part of Germany, and that a more liberal Islam is neither feasible nor desirable, and condemns people who criticise that or call for dialogue with Islam against extremism; a party that condemns a "one-sided promotion of homo- and transexuality", if you please, is more "liberal" than those who dare to speak out against it.
Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?
IIRC they call mobile and landlines.
Fair enough. On the other point lots of people though will not answer an unknown number. These might include people avoiding creditors but they also include the naturally suspicious. Trump is a naturally suspicious individual and I suspect such people are drawn to his kind of anti establishment politics and by implication the Leave side.
This has long been my contention. I know nobody at all who answers a withheld number or an 08 number. Most people I know won't even answer a number they don't recognise. I suspect caller ID is playing havoc with phone polling.
I am with you on this one, Mr Tyndall. When the 'phone rings, mobile or landline I look at the number and if I don't recognise it then I don't answer. All of my friends have the same attitude to telephone calls. Someone I don't know ringing me up is someone trying to steal my time and they can f**k right off.
@AlanBrooke Hope you have a good leave and don't over sample at the distilleries
I'll "third" that. I only answer such numbers if I'm in a bad mood and want to tell someone to "go away". Which is very hard, I know, on some poor soul who, for want of other job, has got landed with one at one of these dodgy call centres.
I trust the phone poll more as it fits into the normal trend to the status quo as the campaign reaches conclusion and probably a very late swing too.I expect the gap to gradually increase.
There are increasing signs that the EU may crack and fall apart with or without our Brexit. Greater opposition to immigrants and immigration from Eastern Europe reported on BBC news tonight: and the so called liberals are getting jittery in Germany.
PB comments applauds a right-wing German party that says Islam is not part of Germany, and that a more liberal Islam is neither feasible nor desirable, and condemns people who criticise that or call for dialogue with Islam against extremism; a party that condemns a "one-sided promotion of homo- and transexuality", if you please, is more "liberal" than those who dare to speak out against it.
The right-wing German party wasn't bombed, was it?
I assume you mean Islam is the party that condemns "one-sided promotion of homo- and transsexuality - and they tend to take matters into their own hands - such as throwing homos off buildings and hanging them.
Loved Boris's joke this morning when he was touring the Underwear Factory (the one that Alan Johnson turned up to, only to find it was for OUT) - he said, "the EU was like a badly designed undergarment; painfully tight in some places and dangerously loose in others."
Gisela Stuart looks like she is enjoying herself anyway.
Not surprised that Shami has finally made it official and joined Labour. As she has now resigned from Liberty, I suspect she is looking to get elected as an MP sometime in the future. Who knew?
I reckon REMAIN will be unhappy at these polls. More unhappy than LEAVE
This last week was supposedly "disastrous" for the "useless Leave campaign" (if PB threaders are anything to go by), meanwhile REMAIN threw everything at their opponents, from the IMF lady to Cameron's WAR!!!!
They must have been expecting a noticeable shift in favour of STAY. I confess, I was., too. And yet, nada.
I'm not sure anything's changed. The telephone polls aren't moving, despite the migration figures. The internet polls aren't moving.
18-34 year olds ; 240 - sample 1002 - phone 18-24 year olds ; 186 - sample 2048 - online
Youngsters answer mobiles.
35-64 year olds ; 360 - sample 1002 - phone 35-64 year olds ; 1111 - sample 2048 - online
More mature voters fill out internet surveys possibly due to fewer time constraints than doing 'phone surveys.
The big gaps are 35-64 year old Female C1 and DE.
I'd love to see a comparison at public sector level. The kind of jobs where people daren't let on that they have UKIP views. It's unthinkable that certain views can be expressed in many public sector professions, the kind that are littered with 'right on' Guardian reading, recruited ABs at certain levels.
If they ask for my wife, I either say she went mad and we had to shoot her, or I tell them I won't allow her to talk to strangers. If they ask for me, I tell them firmly to go away and then replace the phone.
I reckon REMAIN will be unhappy at these polls. More unhappy than LEAVE
This last week was supposedly "disastrous" for the "useless Leave campaign" (if PB threaders are anything to go by), meanwhile REMAIN threw everything at their opponents, from the IMF lady to Cameron's WAR!!!!
They must have been expecting a noticeable shift in favour of STAY. I confess, I was., too. And yet, nada.
I'm not sure anything's changed. The telephone polls aren't moving, despite the migration figures. The internet polls aren't moving.
If they ask for my wife, I either say she went mad and we had to shoot her, or I tell them I won't allow her to talk to strangers. If they ask for me, I tell them firmly to go away and then replace the phone.
Some could well be pollsters.
But I do on-line polls if I'm in the mood.
Bit risky the former answer. But otherwise I agree.
The sad truth is that both phone polls and Internet polls are crap for different reasons. Phone polls cannot reach significant parts of the population and Internet polls are infested with unrepresentative nutters who actually care.
The skill and luck of a pollster is to turn this sows ear into a silk purse by judging how distorted their sample is and compensating vaguely correctly. Who is doing that better in the present case is really anyone's guess.
The sad truth is that both phone polls and Internet polls are crap for different reasons. Phone polls cannot reach significant parts of the population and Internet polls are infested with unrepresentative nutters who actually care.
The skill and luck of a pollster is to turn this sows ear into a silk purse by judging how distorted their sample is and compensating vaguely correctly. Who is doing that better in the present case is really anyone's guess.
Exactly: that on-line pollsters universally tend to overstate "insurgent" parties tells you how they tend to attract the politically engaged and enthusiastic.
The sad truth is that both phone polls and Internet polls are crap for different reasons. Phone polls cannot reach significant parts of the population and Internet polls are infested with unrepresentative nutters who actually care.
The skill and luck of a pollster is to turn this sows ear into a silk purse by judging how distorted their sample is and compensating vaguely correctly. Who is doing that better in the present case is really anyone's guess.
Exactly: that on-line pollsters universally tend to overstate "insurgent" parties tells you how they tend to attract the politically engaged and enthusiastic.
But have they learned to compensate for that? Not answering until 24th June is cheating.
If they ask for my wife, I either say she went mad and we had to shoot her, or I tell them I won't allow her to talk to strangers. If they ask for me, I tell them firmly to go away and then replace the phone.
Some could well be pollsters.
But I do on-line polls if I'm in the mood.
I find talking to them in Welsh confuses them horribly. The best I ever had was when somebody started talking back at me in Polish...
Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?
IIRC they call mobile and landlines.
Fair enough. On the other point lots of people though will not answer an unknown number. These might include people avoiding creditors but they also include the naturally suspicious. Trump is a naturally suspicious individual and I suspect such people are drawn to his kind of anti establishment politics and by implication the Leave side.
This has long been my contention. I know nobody at all who answers a withheld number or an 08 number. Most people I know won't even answer a number they don't recognise. I suspect caller ID is playing havoc with phone polling.
I am with you on this one, Mr Tyndall. When the 'phone rings, mobile or landline I look at the number and if I don't recognise it then I don't answer. All of my friends have the same attitude to telephone calls. Someone I don't know ringing me up is someone trying to steal my time and they can f**k right off.
@AlanBrooke Hope you have a good leave and don't over sample at the distilleries
Ah, that would be why we couldn't get a reply from the lady who left her purse behind in a cafe. There was a phone number in the window but no joy at all when we rang.
On a side trade note, whilst listening to Radio 4's PM, on which international leaders back Brexit, apparently New Zealand and Mexico who don't have started the queue for a free trade deal with the UK in the event of Brexit.
The sad truth is that both phone polls and Internet polls are crap for different reasons. Phone polls cannot reach significant parts of the population and Internet polls are infested with unrepresentative nutters who actually care.
The skill and luck of a pollster is to turn this sows ear into a silk purse by judging how distorted their sample is and compensating vaguely correctly. Who is doing that better in the present case is really anyone's guess.
I know yougov is a self selecting pool from which the company then picks at random but how do the other online firms work?
The sad truth is that both phone polls and Internet polls are crap for different reasons. Phone polls cannot reach significant parts of the population and Internet polls are infested with unrepresentative nutters who actually care.
The skill and luck of a pollster is to turn this sows ear into a silk purse by judging how distorted their sample is and compensating vaguely correctly. Who is doing that better in the present case is really anyone's guess.
Exactly: that on-line pollsters universally tend to overstate "insurgent" parties tells you how they tend to attract the politically engaged and enthusiastic.
But have they learned to compensate for that? Not answering until 24th June is cheating.
I think it is difficult to get a representative sample out of people who want to earn two quid a month for three hours answering surveys.
I could have sworn that most of the changes in the last twenty years or so to do with 'opening europe' had roots in improved communications.
Social changes, attitudinal changes, pc changes, travel changes, political changes and much more were started or possible because of communication (and some technological) changes. Not Europe.
I reckon REMAIN will be unhappy at these polls. More unhappy than LEAVE
This last week was supposedly "disastrous" for the "useless Leave campaign" (if PB threaders are anything to go by), meanwhile REMAIN threw everything at their opponents, from the IMF lady to Cameron's WAR!!!!
They must have been expecting a noticeable shift in favour of STAY. I confess, I was., too. And yet, nada.
In 1975, the polls were fairly accurate and didn't move in the last four weeks. In had it by a long way, and they had done all the ground work before the main campaign started.
In fact, they had already won the referendum by mid May, as minds were by then made up. This is going to be much closer and the government will have to fight right up to the last day to keep us in. I think they thought that they could win it before the starting gun was fired and threw the kitchen sink at it upfront as in 75. That might end up being their major miscalculation.
Remain will probably still win, but the margin will be too close to settle the issue for long
The sad truth is that both phone polls and Internet polls are crap for different reasons. Phone polls cannot reach significant parts of the population and Internet polls are infested with unrepresentative nutters who actually care.
The skill and luck of a pollster is to turn this sows ear into a silk purse by judging how distorted their sample is and compensating vaguely correctly. Who is doing that better in the present case is really anyone's guess.
I know yougov is a self selecting pool from which the company then picks at random but how do the other online firms work?
It's said it collapsed because of rainwater seeping in - an analogy of immigrants seeping into Europe and making the social fabric collapse? Or is that stretching things too far and not putting a roof on it?
UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
Once again ignoring the PCC elections because they don't match your pre-conceived ideas.
UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
Not sure how UKIP defections is related to them being overstated in the polls, but okay.
UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
Poll respondents will assume that there will be a candidate from their chosen party to vote for. UKIP do no not contest every seat and this alone will depress their actual performance compared to poll rating.
UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
Once again ignoring the PCC elections because they don't match your pre-conceived ideas.
UKIP can't be that meaningless if you're planning to make gains from undermining their support.
UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .
I wonder if that assumption works. This sort of conjecture questions it.
The reaction to the polling question is I'm anti establishment politics, anti Europe. Hmm, UKIP. UKIP sees a boost from a cost free element of support.
In the polling booth the head rules heart more and there is a return to the established parties. UKIP down in % terms.
Question is will the head rule the heart on the In out question too. If not the online polls could be closer than many expect or predict.
Problem for pollsters is they need to do a psychological profile of the respondent as well as a poll.
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36304721
I think Trump will do well in New York, by recent historical standards - again it means diddly squat ! (Safe DEM)
Turnips for the locals and
s
Swede for the English !
Fresh cooked scallops for six quid and really fresh couldn't recommend it enough
To be fair, Khan is apparently considering ditching the Garden Bridge, so not all bad news.
If validated I am quite astonished.
Pensioners are the most brexit minded demographic I have come across. I have to wonder sediously what is going on in phone polls if their oaps are remainers in the majority.
I can only think that they have oversampled genteel types that will do what that nice Mr Cameron suggests.
Better broadband up here in the middle of nowhere than in my village which is twelve miles south of Birmingham
Bloody useless Tories !
IIt's stunning up there, isn't it? The drive through Glencoe into Fort William has to be among the most beautiful anywhere on earth.
We got a glorious day on Saturday driving up here cloudless blue sky , warm and fantastic scenery
14 hours 14 minutes 14 seconds
Phone, online, carrier pigeon and tea leaves.
I get called regularly from all sorts of numbers on all sorts of rubbish asking me if I have a spare few minutes.
Invariably, they all call at various (inconvenient) times, take longer to answer than billed, and for precious little personal benefit.
This is the same Hollande who dave lets threaten us while trying to emulate his economic performance
We have loads of bluebell woods round us, always fun to walk through
A gap like that only appearing in a single demographic looks unprecedented to me. Top marks to Speedy for spotting it.
There are increasing signs that the EU may crack and fall apart with or without our Brexit. Greater opposition to immigrants and immigration from Eastern Europe reported on BBC news tonight: and the so called liberals are getting jittery in Germany.
https://twitter.com/SamPeiffer/status/732236674348916736
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
Or is it non tariff barriers that prevent there being a "single market" in services?
@AlanBrooke
Hope you have a good leave and don't over sample at the distilleries
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36304721
Have fun PB
The number of UK students studying European languages has dropped by 6% over the past three years. Little comfort for remainers believing we can trade with the rest of the world however as the number students studying other languages has dropped by 14% over the same period.
That being said, across Europe (France, Germany, Spain, Greece, and the UK), "insurgent" parties such as UKIP, the FN, PVV, Podemos, etc. tend to score more highly in on-line polls than in telephones ones. (I'm not suggesting these parties have anything in common except they are typically opposed to establishment parties.) Interestingly, the only exception to this rule is Germany, where the AfD does better in telephone polls than in on-line ones.
The telephone pollsters have tended to be better at getting the results of national elections right. But whether that tells us anything useful about the referendum is another question altogether.
Who knows.
It seems like the answer to the online/phone Polling is staring us in the face if only we could see.
18-24 year olds ; 240 - sample 1002 - phone
18-24 year olds ; 186 - sample 2048 - online
Youngsters answer mobiles.
35-64 year olds ; 360 - sample 1002 - phone
35-64 year olds ; 1111 - sample 2048 - online
More mature voters fill out internet surveys possibly due to fewer time constraints than doing 'phone surveys.
The big gaps are 35-64 year old Female C1 and DE.
I'd love to see a comparison at public sector level. The kind of jobs where people daren't let on that they have UKIP views. It's unthinkable that certain views can be expressed in many public sector professions, the kind that are littered with 'right on' Guardian reading, recruited ABs at certain levels.
Digital composition is basically at the seamless stage.
I assume you mean Islam is the party that condemns "one-sided promotion of homo- and transsexuality - and they tend to take matters into their own hands - such as throwing homos off buildings and hanging them.
Gisela Stuart looks like she is enjoying herself anyway.
Not surprised that Shami has finally made it official and joined Labour. As she has now resigned from Liberty, I suspect she is looking to get elected as an MP sometime in the future. Who knew?
No movement means we lose.
I agree about cold calls.
If they ask for my wife, I either say she went mad and we had to shoot her, or I tell them I won't allow her to talk to strangers. If they ask for me, I tell them firmly to go away and then replace the phone.
Some could well be pollsters.
But I do on-line polls if I'm in the mood.
They should go much bigger on the economics IMHO.
Those that claim gold does not tarnish need to look again.
So no, I don't think you can say they've called it right at all.
"EU membership has opened Europe up to the younger generation."
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-writes-mirror-dont-7978638
The skill and luck of a pollster is to turn this sows ear into a silk purse by judging how distorted their sample is and compensating vaguely correctly. Who is doing that better in the present case is really anyone's guess.
https://twitter.com/silvesterldn/status/732208631060500480
Social changes, attitudinal changes, pc changes, travel changes, political changes and much more were started or possible because of communication (and some technological) changes. Not Europe.
In fact, they had already won the referendum by mid May, as minds were by then made up. This is going to be much closer and the government will have to fight right up to the last day to keep us in. I think they thought that they could win it before the starting gun was fired and threw the kitchen sink at it upfront as in 75. That might end up being their major miscalculation.
Remain will probably still win, but the margin will be too close to settle the issue for long
Not happy...
The reaction to the polling question is I'm anti establishment politics, anti Europe. Hmm, UKIP. UKIP sees a boost from a cost free element of support.
In the polling booth the head rules heart more and there is a return to the established parties. UKIP down in % terms.
Question is will the head rule the heart on the In out question too. If not the online polls could be closer than many expect or predict.
Problem for pollsters is they need to do a psychological profile of the respondent as well as a poll.