politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Great news for IN from ICM phone survey and for OUT from IC

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Well Trump has got Utah back as a safe state:

Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers 3h3 hours ago
Utah General Election:

Trump 43% (+5 since Apr)
Clinton 30% (-8)
Undecided 26

Romney won Utah by 44% in 2012 so while Trump should now win it Hillary is still doing significantly better than Obama did there and Trump worse than Romney, Mormons are holding their noses to vote for him

More FFS, Romney's a Mormon. What do you expect?

Interesting that the referendum was shunted down the order on the Six O'Clock News this evening. Perhaps the BBC think that the more it is talked about, the more people are inclined to vote Leave.

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Well Trump has got Utah back as a safe state:

Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers 3h3 hours ago
Utah General Election:

Trump 43% (+5 since Apr)
Clinton 30% (-8)
Undecided 26

Romney won Utah by 44% in 2012 so while Trump should now win it Hillary is still doing significantly better than Obama did there and Trump worse than Romney, Mormons are holding their noses to vote for him

Utah wins for the GOP bounce between 28 and 44%. Whilst Trump might duck under that it's not a particularly representative or needed state for either party to under/overperform in (V Safe GOP)

I think Trump will do well in New York, by recent historical standards - again it means diddly squat ! (Safe DEM)

RobD said:

Alanbrooke said:

Had a lovely day on the Isle of Skye
Went to a farm shop and saw canned turnips for the first time ever
Couldn't help but think of malc

"Malcolm's Own"?

It was a bi lingual label

Turnips for the locals and
s
Swede for the English !

Plato_Says said:

Norm said:

Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?

IIRC they call mobile and landlines.

Fair enough. On the other point lots of people though will not answer an unknown number. These might include people avoiding creditors but they also include the naturally suspicious. Trump is a naturally suspicious individual and I suspect such people are drawn to his kind of anti establishment politics and by implication the Leave side.

Plato_Says said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Well Trump has got Utah back as a safe state:

Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers 3h3 hours ago
Utah General Election:

Trump 43% (+5 since Apr)
Clinton 30% (-8)
Undecided 26

Romney won Utah by 44% in 2012 so while Trump should now win it Hillary is still doing significantly better than Obama did there and Trump worse than Romney, Mormons are holding their noses to vote for him

More FFS, Romney's a Mormon. What do you expect?

Even McCain won it by 28% in 2008

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

Had a lovely day on the Isle of Skye
Went to a farm shop and saw canned turnips for the first time ever
Couldn't help but think of malc

Have you popped into Talisker yet?

We went to talisker but the best place was the oyster she'd just behind it
Fresh cooked scallops for six quid and really fresh couldn't recommend it enough

Sounds superb. We were up there a few years ago. Went to the Three Chimneys. A lovely evening. Then my missus was up all night with food poisoning from a dodgy crustacean. Bloody Scots.

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Well Trump has got Utah back as a safe state:

Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers 3h3 hours ago
Utah General Election:

Trump 43% (+5 since Apr)
Clinton 30% (-8)
Undecided 26

Romney won Utah by 44% in 2012 so while Trump should now win it Hillary is still doing significantly better than Obama did there and Trump worse than Romney, Mormons are holding their noses to vote for him

Utah wins for the GOP bounce between 28 and 44%. Whilst Trump might duck under that it's not a particularly representative or needed state for either party to under/overperform in (V Safe GOP)

I think Trump will do well in New York, by recent historical standards - again it means diddly squat ! (Safe DEM)

Indeed the key states are Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Colorado, NC and Ohio

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

Plato_Says said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Well Trump has got Utah back as a safe state:

Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers 3h3 hours ago
Utah General Election:

Trump 43% (+5 since Apr)
Clinton 30% (-8)
Undecided 26

Romney won Utah by 44% in 2012 so while Trump should now win it Hillary is still doing significantly better than Obama did there and Trump worse than Romney, Mormons are holding their noses to vote for him

More FFS, Romney's a Mormon. What do you expect?

Even McCain won it by 28% in 2008

Romney isn't exactly endorsing Trump though, is he?

Regardless Trump should not be losing over half McCain's lead

Norm said:

Plato_Says said:

Norm said:

Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?

IIRC they call mobile and landlines.

Fair enough. On the other point lots of people though will not answer an unknown number. These might include people avoiding creditors but they also include the naturally suspicious. Trump is a naturally suspicious individual and I suspect such people are drawn to his kind of anti establishment politics and by implication the Leave side.

This has long been my contention. I know nobody at all who answers a withheld number or an 08 number. Most people I know won't even answer a number they don't recognise. I suspect caller ID is playing havoc with phone polling.

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

Had a lovely day on the Isle of Skye
Went to a farm shop and saw canned turnips for the first time ever
Couldn't help but think of malc

Have you popped into Talisker yet?

We went to talisker but the best place was the oyster she'd just behind it
Fresh cooked scallops for six quid and really fresh couldn't recommend it enough

Sounds superb. We were up there a few years ago. Went to the Three Chimneys. A lovely evening. Then my missus was up all night with food poisoning from a dodgy crustacean. Bloody Scots.

Currently I'm staying in Fort Augustus
Better broadband up here in the middle of nowhere than in my village which is twelve miles south of Birmingham
Bloody useless Tories !

LOL :-)

IIt's stunning up there, isn't it? The drive through Glencoe into Fort William has to be among the most beautiful anywhere on earth.

Yes absolutely

We got a glorious day on Saturday driving up here cloudless blue sky , warm and fantastic scenery

Latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown

14 hours 14 minutes 14 seconds

Phone, online, carrier pigeon and tea leaves.

Amazing scenes in Leicester ... as a triumphant open top bus tour heralds Dr Fox's betting coup ....

Meanwhile France starts a series of paralysing strikes that will last for weeks

This is the same Hollande who dave lets threaten us while trying to emulate his economic performance

EPG said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Speedy said:

The only thing I can see as usual that causes the difference between Online and Phone polls are the reaction of the over 65's of age.

In the ICM Phone poll over 65's are in favour of Remain, in the ICM Online poll they are 2-1 in favour of Leave.

The entire difference is caused by that one category and it's consistent since the start.

That is a very interesting find.

If validated I am quite astonished.

Pensioners are the most brexit minded demographic I have come across. I have to wonder sediously what is going on in phone polls if their oaps are remainers in the majority.

I can only think that they have oversampled genteel types that will do what that nice Mr Cameron suggests.

Maybe instead you have undersampled them in your coming-acrossing?

It is possible. But everywhere I read that the older people are the more pro Brexit they are.

A gap like that only appearing in a single demographic looks unprecedented to me. Top marks to Speedy for spotting it.

Casino_Royale said:

Plato_Says said:

Norm said:

Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?

IIRC they call mobile and landlines.

Not saying I'm representative but I'd probably do an online poll and ignore a phone poll call.

I get called regularly from all sorts of numbers on all sorts of rubbish asking me if I have a spare few minutes.

Invariably, they all call at various (inconvenient) times, take longer to answer than billed, and for precious little personal benefit.

As soon as I realise it is a call centre they get cut off and put on my phones block list. I dont hang about to see why they are spamming me.

BenedictWhite said:

JackW said:

Plato_Says said:

HYUFD said:

Rather farcical comment in the last thread by Londonbob hailing a Trump lead in Utah as confirmation he was a dead cert for the presidency. Only 1 GOP nominee since WW2 has lost Utah, Barry Goldwater and he won just 6 states. To win Trump should be winning Utah comfortably

Oh FFS - I'm sick of Goldwater comparisons. It's 50yrs ago and a totally different media/political background.

I must have missed your "FFS" comparison of Boris and EU/Hitler who departed Berlin Central 71 years ago ....

Was that before or after he went mad and has anyone told Ken?

Boris has gone mad .... who knew? ....

I asked yesterday... Does anyone know what or if tariffs are applied on services anywhere?

Or is it non tariff barriers that prevent there being a "single market" in services?

Richard_Tyndall said:

Norm said:

Plato_Says said:

Norm said:

Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?

IIRC they call mobile and landlines.

Fair enough. On the other point lots of people though will not answer an unknown number. These might include people avoiding creditors but they also include the naturally suspicious. Trump is a naturally suspicious individual and I suspect such people are drawn to his kind of anti establishment politics and by implication the Leave side.

This has long been my contention. I know nobody at all who answers a withheld number or an 08 number. Most people I know won't even answer a number they don't recognise. I suspect caller ID is playing havoc with phone polling.

I am with you on this one, Mr Tyndall. When the 'phone rings, mobile or landline I look at the number and if I don't recognise it then I don't answer. All of my friends have the same attitude to telephone calls. Someone I don't know ringing me up is someone trying to steal my time and they can f**k right off.

@AlanBrooke
Hope you have a good leave and don't over sample at the distilleries

HurstLlama said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Norm said:

Plato_Says said:

Norm said:

Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?

IIRC they call mobile and landlines.

Fair enough. On the other point lots of people though will not answer an unknown number. These might include people avoiding creditors but they also include the naturally suspicious. Trump is a naturally suspicious individual and I suspect such people are drawn to his kind of anti establishment politics and by implication the Leave side.

This has long been my contention. I know nobody at all who answers a withheld number or an 08 number. Most people I know won't even answer a number they don't recognise. I suspect caller ID is playing havoc with phone polling.

I am with you on this one, Mr Tyndall. When the 'phone rings, mobile or landline I look at the number and if I don't recognise it then I don't answer. All of my friends have the same attitude to telephone calls. Someone I don't know ringing me up is someone trying to steal my time and they can f**k right off.

@AlanBrooke
Hope you have a good leave and don't over sample at the distilleries

I hope you caught my Limerick for you before I left

MikeK said:

Europe migrant crisis: EU faces 'populist uprising'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36304721

Nah.... It's just Merkel exercising the German people's sovereign right to welcome migrants....allegedly well, according to last nights thread anyway.

MikeK said:

BenedictWhite said:

JackW said:

BenedictWhite said:

JackW said:

Plato_Says said:

HYUFD said:

Rather farcical comment in the last thread by Londonbob hailing a Trump lead in Utah as confirmation he was a dead cert for the presidency. Only 1 GOP nominee since WW2 has lost Utah, Barry Goldwater and he won just 6 states. To win Trump should be winning Utah comfortably

Oh FFS - I'm sick of Goldwater comparisons. It's 50yrs ago and a totally different media/political background.

I must have missed your "FFS" comparison of Boris and EU/Hitler who departed Berlin Central 71 years ago ....

Was that before or after he went mad and has anyone told Ken?

Boris has gone mad .... who knew? ....

Quite though it may have been an effective dead cat to keep Carney off the headlines.

The only person going "mad" is JackW as his ARSE keeps farting out it's Remaining smells.

My ARSE has plenty of bottom whereas mad bad @MikeK and his 120 UKIP MP's were all fart and no bottom.

Casino_Royale said:

Plato_Says said:

Norm said:

Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?

IIRC they call mobile and landlines.

Not saying I'm representative but I'd probably do an online poll and ignore a phone poll call.

I get called regularly from all sorts of numbers on all sorts of rubbish asking me if I have a spare few minutes.

Invariably, they all call at various (inconvenient) times, take longer to answer than billed, and for precious little personal benefit.

I think PPI callers have made most of us pretty damn resistant to answering the phone to numbers we don't know!

That being said, across Europe (France, Germany, Spain, Greece, and the UK), "insurgent" parties such as UKIP, the FN, PVV, Podemos, etc. tend to score more highly in on-line polls than in telephones ones. (I'm not suggesting these parties have anything in common except they are typically opposed to establishment parties.) Interestingly, the only exception to this rule is Germany, where the AfD does better in telephone polls than in on-line ones.

The telephone pollsters have tended to be better at getting the results of national elections right. But whether that tells us anything useful about the referendum is another question altogether.

MikeK said:

Europe migrant crisis: EU faces 'populist uprising'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36304721

Populist uprising? I can see Trump already filing flight plans for Europe, getting caps embroidered with "Make the EU Great Again", stoking the fires with rehetoric of unlimited immigration, and putting in place plans to build a wall, paid for by Turkey.

Alistair said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/election_data/status/732246282023149568

That is genuinely startling.

It seems like the answer to the online/phone Polling is staring us in the face if only we could see.

Women more likely to be shy leavers and less likely to tell the truth over the phone?

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

Had a lovely day on the Isle of Skye
Went to a farm shop and saw canned turnips for the first time ever
Couldn't help but think of malc

Have you popped into Talisker yet?

We went to talisker but the best place was the oyster she'd just behind it
Fresh cooked scallops for six quid and really fresh couldn't recommend it enough

Sounds superb. We were up there a few years ago. Went to the Three Chimneys. A lovely evening. Then my missus was up all night with food poisoning from a dodgy crustacean. Bloody Scots.

Currently I'm staying in Fort Augustus
Better broadband up here in the middle of nowhere than in my village which is twelve miles south of Birmingham
Bloody useless Tories !

LOL :-)

IIt's stunning up there, isn't it? The drive through Glencoe into Fort William has to be among the most beautiful anywhere on earth.

Ever done that trip on the canal? That really is quite something. The beauty of it is you have much more time to sit and admire the view.

HurstLlama said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Norm said:

Plato_Says said:

Norm said:

Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?

IIRC they call mobile and landlines.

Fair enough. On the other point lots of people though will not answer an unknown number. These might include people avoiding creditors but they also include the naturally suspicious. Trump is a naturally suspicious individual and I suspect such people are drawn to his kind of anti establishment politics and by implication the Leave side.

This has long been my contention. I know nobody at all who answers a withheld number or an 08 number. Most people I know won't even answer a number they don't recognise. I suspect caller ID is playing havoc with phone polling.

I am with you on this one, Mr Tyndall. When the 'phone rings, mobile or landline I look at the number and if I don't recognise it then I don't answer. All of my friends have the same attitude to telephone calls. Someone I don't know ringing me up is someone trying to steal my time and they can f**k right off.

@AlanBrooke
Hope you have a good leave and don't over sample at the distilleries

I'll "third" that. I only answer such numbers if I'm in a bad mood and want to tell someone to "go away". Which is very hard, I know, on some poor soul who, for want of other job, has got landed with one at one of these dodgy call centres.

EPG said:

weejonnie said:

MikeK said:

Good evening all.

There are increasing signs that the EU may crack and fall apart with or without our Brexit. Greater opposition to immigrants and immigration from Eastern Europe reported on BBC news tonight: and the so called liberals are getting jittery in Germany.

https://twitter.com/SamPeiffer/status/732236674348916736

Nothing more illiberal than a liberal.

PB comments applauds a right-wing German party that says Islam is not part of Germany, and that a more liberal Islam is neither feasible nor desirable, and condemns people who criticise that or call for dialogue with Islam against extremism; a party that condemns a "one-sided promotion of homo- and transexuality", if you please, is more "liberal" than those who dare to speak out against it.

The right-wing German party wasn't bombed, was it?

I assume you mean Islam is the party that condemns "one-sided promotion of homo- and transsexuality - and they tend to take matters into their own hands - such as throwing homos off buildings and hanging them.

SeanT said:

I reckon REMAIN will be unhappy at these polls. More unhappy than LEAVE

This last week was supposedly "disastrous" for the "useless Leave campaign" (if PB threaders are anything to go by), meanwhile REMAIN threw everything at their opponents, from the IMF lady to Cameron's WAR!!!!

They must have been expecting a noticeable shift in favour of STAY. I confess, I was., too. And yet, nada.

I'm not sure anything's changed. The telephone polls aren't moving, despite the migration figures. The internet polls aren't moving.

No movement means we lose.

Mr Cole,

I agree about cold calls.

If they ask for my wife, I either say she went mad and we had to shoot her, or I tell them I won't allow her to talk to strangers. If they ask for me, I tell them firmly to go away and then replace the phone.

Some could well be pollsters.

But I do on-line polls if I'm in the mood.

CD13 said:

Mr Cole,

I agree about cold calls.

If they ask for my wife, I either say she went mad and we had to shoot her, or I tell them I won't allow her to talk to strangers. If they ask for me, I tell them firmly to go away and then replace the phone.

Some could well be pollsters.

But I do on-line polls if I'm in the mood.

Bit risky the former answer. But otherwise I agree.

DavidL said:

Can I confidently claim now that ICM have called this right? Whichever way it goes.

Those that claim gold does not tarnish need to look again.

If I bet on 2 horses in a 2 horse race at a bookies, then I'll just pay the bookie 14 pence for every pound on or so between the nags.

So no, I don't think you can say they've called it right at all.

The sad truth is that both phone polls and Internet polls are crap for different reasons. Phone polls cannot reach significant parts of the population and Internet polls are infested with unrepresentative nutters who actually care.

The skill and luck of a pollster is to turn this sows ear into a silk purse by judging how distorted their sample is and compensating vaguely correctly. Who is doing that better in the present case is really anyone's guess.

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

The sad truth is that both phone polls and Internet polls are crap for different reasons. Phone polls cannot reach significant parts of the population and Internet polls are infested with unrepresentative nutters who actually care.

The skill and luck of a pollster is to turn this sows ear into a silk purse by judging how distorted their sample is and compensating vaguely correctly. Who is doing that better in the present case is really anyone's guess.

Exactly: that on-line pollsters universally tend to overstate "insurgent" parties tells you how they tend to attract the politically engaged and enthusiastic.

But have they learned to compensate for that? Not answering until 24th June is cheating.

HurstLlama said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Norm said:

Plato_Says said:

Norm said:

Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?

IIRC they call mobile and landlines.

Fair enough. On the other point lots of people though will not answer an unknown number. These might include people avoiding creditors but they also include the naturally suspicious. Trump is a naturally suspicious individual and I suspect such people are drawn to his kind of anti establishment politics and by implication the Leave side.

This has long been my contention. I know nobody at all who answers a withheld number or an 08 number. Most people I know won't even answer a number they don't recognise. I suspect caller ID is playing havoc with phone polling.

I am with you on this one, Mr Tyndall. When the 'phone rings, mobile or landline I look at the number and if I don't recognise it then I don't answer. All of my friends have the same attitude to telephone calls. Someone I don't know ringing me up is someone trying to steal my time and they can f**k right off.

@AlanBrooke
Hope you have a good leave and don't over sample at the distilleries

Ah, that would be why we couldn't get a reply from the lady who left her purse behind in a cafe. There was a phone number in the window but no joy at all when we rang.

VapidBilge said:

My first attempt to post a tweet.
https://twitter.com/silvesterldn/status/732208631060500480

Now that is an amusing omen.

DavidL said:

The sad truth is that both phone polls and Internet polls are crap for different reasons. Phone polls cannot reach significant parts of the population and Internet polls are infested with unrepresentative nutters who actually care.

The skill and luck of a pollster is to turn this sows ear into a silk purse by judging how distorted their sample is and compensating vaguely correctly. Who is doing that better in the present case is really anyone's guess.

I know yougov is a self selecting pool from which the company then picks at random but how do the other online firms work?

MP_SE said:

Call Me Dave claiming the EU is great for young people. I presume he means just those who have jobs.

"EU membership has opened Europe up to the younger generation."
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-writes-mirror-dont-7978638

I could have sworn that most of the changes in the last twenty years or so to do with 'opening europe' had roots in improved communications.

Social changes, attitudinal changes, pc changes, travel changes, political changes and much more were started or possible because of communication (and some technological) changes. Not Europe.

VapidBilge said:

My first attempt to post a tweet.
https://twitter.com/silvesterldn/status/732208631060500480

Two visitors and an attendant escaped "shocked but unharmed". Quite a crowd.

Richard_Tyndall said:

DavidL said:

The sad truth is that both phone polls and Internet polls are crap for different reasons. Phone polls cannot reach significant parts of the population and Internet polls are infested with unrepresentative nutters who actually care.

The skill and luck of a pollster is to turn this sows ear into a silk purse by judging how distorted their sample is and compensating vaguely correctly. Who is doing that better in the present case is really anyone's guess.

I know yougov is a self selecting pool from which the company then picks at random but how do the other online firms work?

They all work in much the same way; you can join the Ipsos-MORI panel here https://www.ipsos-mori.com/ourexpertise/researchtechniques/datacollection/online/onlinepanels/joinus.aspx

UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .

MarkSenior said:

UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .

Once again ignoring the PCC elections because they don't match your pre-conceived ideas.

Today has mostly been spent not seeing a Lammergeier (a Bearded Vulture) on Dartmoor.

Not happy...

OT. Worrying about Sinead O'Connor. Missing since Sunday morning after going for a bike ride in Chicago.

MarkSenior said:

UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .

Richard_Tyndall said:

MarkSenior said:

UKIP at 17% in the Online poll is a clear indication of where some of the error arises . In the real world the UKIP performance in English local elections and Welsh Assembly elections showed that online polls are overstating UKIP by 3-5% . The steady stream of councillors defecting from UKIP tells the same story . Only today UKIP have lost another councillor in Thanet rising both from the party and the council .

Once again ignoring the PCC elections because they don't match your pre-conceived ideas.

UKIP can't be that meaningless if you're planning to make gains from undermining their support.

Scott_P said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

OT. Worrying about Sinead O'Connor. Missing since Sunday morning after going for a bike ride in Chicago.

@NBCNewYork: JUST IN: Sinead O'Connor found safe https://t.co/dkcDOfYBxo https://t.co/sR1CLrLxO5

Thanks Scott. I had only seen the headline that she was missing 10 minutes ago.